it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. i'm dominic chu in for frank holland and here's your "five@5." waiting on inflation. the key indicators for the month as the fed rate debate edges on. stocks coming off the longest losing streak as volatility hovers near highs.

betting on villains. disney looks to hit the iger reset button and turn around the sagging stock price. a warning from bank of america's brian moynihan on the consumer. and vice president kamala harris responds to the trump's critique of the fed. it's monday, august 11th, 2024. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." thank you for being with us on this monday morning. let's kickoff this hour with the check of u.s. equity futures with the s&p 500 riding a four-week losing streak. it's longest since september. right now, futures are modestly higher. the s&p is implied higher two points. the dow lower by 27 and the

nasdaq, tech heavy side of things, up 13 or 14 points. within the bond market, the ten-year yield hovering at r around the 4% mark. you see with the particular moves, the ten-year note move at 3.94%. and the 30-year long bond ticking higher to 4.228%. oil is coming off a wild week as well. its best since march. west texas intermediate up $77.58. rbob gas futures are $2.40. let's see how europe is shaping up. dan murphy is in the london newsroom with the action from across the atlantic. over to you, dan. >> dom, good morning to you. good morning, everyone.

let's give you a live look at how europe is shaping up through the course of the session here. we are seeing green on the screen. gains led by ftse 100 up .3%. the ftse mib is up .3%. we are seeing more signs of stabilization and more signs mof recovery after the week of significant volatility and significant loss. of course, a positive day across asia and that positive lead from wall street on friday helping to support sentiment across the region as well. our market in negative territory is cac 40 down 0.11%. let's show you what is moving in sectors, dom, because you flagged oil earlier. that lifted the oil index across the continent here. you can see it is leading the gains here up by .66%. the oil and gas sector recording the biggest gain in percentage points right now.

we are seeing losses for real estate. that more rate sensitive sector down by almost 1%. also losses for healthcare, chemicals and retail and food and beverage and autos as well. that is how we are shaping up across europe, dom. a positive day, but we are looking out for more data and clues where the markets go next. >> dan murphy with the international market. thank you. let's get to the corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. good morning, dom. well, bank of america ceo brian moynihan sounding the alarm on the economy telling "face the nation" consumer spending to weaken if the fed doesn't lower rates soon. >> if they don't start taking them down relatively soon, you could disspirit the american consumer. >> moynihan adding once the consumer starts going negative,

then it's hard to get them back. disney unveiling plans for theme park an attractions. among the highlights from the expo is a new villains land and monsters inc. land and new indiana jones and encanto rides in california. this comes after disney reported a slowdown in the parks division. and former youtube ceo susan wojcicki has died at the age of 56. she played a key role in the advertising business. alphabet ceo sundar pichai paying tribute to her on x. she was an incredible person, leader and friend who had a

tremendous impact on the world and that he is better for knowing her, dom. >> silvana henao, thank you very much for the headlines. it could be another make or break week for your money as the consumer takes center stage in the week ahead. preparing for the key economic reports and skjuly ppi and cpi d earnings sales. home depot and walmart will offer color and context on consumer spending and inflation and the state of the u.s. economy. a miss on either is seen in the past couple weeks. similar to what we saw after that, the july jobs report is the miss and the global market selloff. joining me to discuss this is scott laggner. scott, a lot of folks are sending the all-clear signal seeing the markets have recovered a majority of the monday selloff. do you feel comfortable with how

things are shaping up? >> good morning, dom. i'm not sure all clear is the way to chark eacterize what is going on right now, but panic is not the way to characterize the global economy and the markets. we have a stock market with the fed putback, but clearly accelerating. balancing that is the job of market participants in the next couple months. we will get help from the data this week. >> is there anything that can happen this week? do you expect anything to happen this week that would derail the market recovery that we've seen? is the inflation data still that important in the overall market story? >> you know, the inflation data has taken a backseat to employment data and growth data. the market has moved on from inflation as being real thin. now we're worried about employment and growth, especially in the united states than about inflation. should we get a real

surprise, .4 in month over month cpi could derail and confuse people. at the same time, we have a defl deflationary print. that would spook folks on the growth front. we don't see a high probability of either. if we did see something like that, it would be an issue for the market participantparticipa >> are there certain parts of the market that you prefer over others? what goes on the shopping and what would you stay away from? >> i think tech has to be back on the shopping list. it has gotten us through the last several sessions. the medium term is compelling. a.i. story is too compelling. where people are spndingending . this is a mid '90s story still. additionally, things like energy

and home builders. you know, things like home builders are first movers on rate reductions. they got hit pretty hard last week as well. those are the things we like right now. the things we don't like is anything tied to chinese growth. the mining companies need china to pick up for them to do well. the deep value names or need accelerating v-shape economic extrajectory to win. we don't see an upward traj trajectory. we don't see recession either. >> what then about the enter story of the broadening of the market? we are seeing over the medium term relative out performance and small caps? you are going right back to the muscle memory and that is mega cap technology and technology.

>> there are some parts that can work. if i preferred to play more inside the s&p 500 and larger companies or mid-cap companies that can still grow and keep up. we think the theme can be real. we think the market got ahead of itself. anything that's not making money, is really going to be challenged for the next six months. >> before we let you go, we've seen interest rates move de decidedly toward the down side direction. e expectations for future growth and policy. where do you think interest rates need to be in order for the markets to feel like they can get back to a scenario where they can continue a medium-to-longer term higher? >> if you are talking in terms of ten-year rates, 3.25% and 4.25% is the money zone for that. you get below 3.25% or 3.5 %,

dom, you get the growth scare. 4.5% or more, you get inflation prior a pressure again. a big move in either direction is fairly unlikely. like i said, anything approaching the 3% to 4% down, you will have a different sort of worry and wobble. we don't think this is likely. >> looking for the sweet spot. scott ladner, thank you. for more on what's driving the markets and trading day ahead, head to cnbc pro on cnbc.com/pro. you will get exclusive insights and andalysis for subscribers. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word investors need to know, but the critique of the fed and whether or not the fed should have a say in interest rate policy. what that debate could mean for your money in november.

plus, more on the disney big weekend and if the announcement moves the need for the stock that's been in the red year to daf date. and later on, short seller strikes again on one of the biggest conglomerates in the world. we go to asia for that latest. a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break.

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what we have right now are stock futures indicating a modestly lower open for the dow by 13 points. the s&p implied higher 3 or 4 points and the nasdaq up 24. check out the dow winners in the pre-market session so far. you can see some movement there for some of the names. dow gainers including intel, amazon, walmart, chevron and disney up .50% and .75% here ahead of the opening bell. ahead on "worldwide exchange," speaking for former president trump, a volatile week for the social media company. we have details on that story when we return after this break. . it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone.

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with significant improvement over time. ( ♪♪ ) i feel the president should have at lead say in there, yeah. i feel that strongly. i feel in my case, i made a lot of money and i was very successful and i think i have a better instinct in many cases than people on the federal reserve or the chairman. >> that was former president donald trump last week criticizing one of his old foes, the federal reserve and chairman jay powell as the central bank prepares to pull back the throttle on the policies and trajectories in decades. this weekend, though, vice president kamala harris taking the other side of the debate telling reporters in arizona, quote, i couldn't disagree more

strongly. the fed is an independent entity. as president, i would never interfere in the decisions that the fed makes. harris adding, she is watching to see where the fed moves next on interest rates. joining us now with more on this is ben emons, chief investment officer at fund watch advisers. ben, the establishment and the doctrine, if you will, for decades, has been the independence of the fed. there is a paradigm shift being proposed by the former president in becoming more active with regard to the fed. which is going to be better for markets? >> it depends on the situation, dom. we think of march of 2020 and we had a real problem. at that time, the fed and treasuries coordinated their actions and that's when it worked really well for the markets. remember, we had a turn around. in good times, that may not be

the case with the issue of the interference and decisions against the wrong timing to do that. after all, the fed is an independent institution. i would agree with vice president kamala harris that, yes, the fed should make its own independent decisions because too much political interference has historically not been a good thing. it has led to inflation and more volatility in the markets. i think the only time it could work well is in real serious crisis. it is more about coordination with the treasury than the infer f ference. >> with the market volatility also comes the notion of the establishment and what has been happening for years now could also be up ended. that is a concern for traders and investors right now as well? do you think there is a fear or uncertainty around that kind of

possible hypothetical change in the way our executive branch views the federal reserve? >> maybe some of it, dom. if you think about how the very low end of the yield curve is trading. it is a little specific, but if you look further out, there is risk prepmium in there with ris deficits. the risk of inflation may be higher in the future. it still depends as we go into the new phase with the new president and how ultimately the body of the fmoc changes. we know powell's term is up during the first part of the new presidency and it is still a committee. they are making the decisions together. nonetheless, i do think there is concern if you are getting a fed that's not independent and causing uncertainty of what is coming next. that is causing the curve.

dom, we want the independent fed which is better for market stability. >> before we let you go, you have an idea of how these things and cycling work. how would you advise any future president about whether or not they should be engaged more or involved more with the fed? >> you know there is always a dialogue, that's always a good thing. in a way, the fed makes its independent decisions. powell goes often to capitol hill to talk to lawmakers as an example. the episode of 2020 where he actually really worked well with mnuchin and it was a positive outcome. it is not always negative to have communication, but on the other hand, the fed is an independent body for that reason. the dollar and interest rates and the economy. if you are getting other people involved that are not actively doing this day-to-day, you maybe get the wrong decisions or wrong timing. that is the history of it. i think, again, it is for

markets and uncertainty that matters. you get too much market instability and that is not good for the economy. >> ben emons with the future on the fed and policies. thank you very much. >> thank you, dom. sticking with the campaign trail and new fundraising numbers from the harris camp following the event in silicon valley last night. according to the campaign, it raised more than $13 million for the democratic ticket in a single night. helped in no small part by tickets going sale for as much as $500,000 on the high end and $3,300 on the low end of things. among the attendees, reid h hoffman. since harris stepped in for president biden, since july, she raised $310 million and the trump campaign and committees

raised $139 million. speaking of donald trump, a market flash on trump technology djt. the parent company of social media platform. revenue was down 30% from the same time last year. the stock is down significantly from its peak above $71 a share back in march. you see the shares $26.41. up .75% in the pre-market trade. let's get a check of the headlines outside of money and business with jessica leyton. >> good morning, dom. forces are fighting inside russian territory. up to 1,000 troops are inside russia. moscow bombing to stop the offensive. the assault began tuesday as ukrainian troops entered the

kursk region. president volodymyr zelenskyy called it a major provocation. to the middle east. the israeli memilitary issued a new assault. the idf said rockets had been fired from those areas. this all comes as cease-fire negotiations are entering a new critical phase. and here at home, we have new polling in the presidential race that shows vice president kamala harris leading among likely voters in three key battleground state. lead in michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin is within the margin of error. meanwhile, tonight, donald trump will sit down with a conversation with elon musk. that will stream live on musk's platform x, formerly known as twitter. i don't know how long we have to say that, but i'll probably never stop saying it. >> i still think of the little

blue bird. jessica, thank you very much for that. coming up on the show, tesla strategy shift and why buying a stainless steel cyber truck just got a lot more expensive. if you haven't done so, follow our podcast on apple or spod spotify or other podcast apps of your choice for "worldwide exchange" in audio format. we'll be right back. what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul is your frosted treat with a sweet kick of confidence. cirkul is the effortless energy that gets you in the zone. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

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there is still a lot more on "worldwide exchange." h here's what's on deck. the longest losing streak since september as attention turns back to the economy and key inflation report this week. not just data, retail earnings should shed light on the u.s. con ssumer finances. we tee up what you need to expect. and later on, disney making a $60 billion bet on parks and rides and cruise ships. is it enough? it is monday, august 12th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in thisweek for

frank holland. let's pick up the check on the equity futures with the s&p riding a four-week losing streak. the longest since september. at this stage, the futures indicate a stable open. nothing spectacular up or down. stable. the dow implied higher by 12 points. the s&p higher by 3 points. the nasdaq up by 21. again, modest moves. we will see if it stays that way heading toward the opening bell. within the bond market, yields are ticking higher. the ten-year yield hovering around the 4% mark. ten-year at 3.97%. the two-year yield at 4.053%. the 30-year long bond ticking lower to 4.224% as well. keep an eye on the rates. oil is coming off a wild week. the best since march. right now, u.s. benchmark west texas intermediate is $77.65.

a 3% gain. $80.30 for ice brent. keep an eye on oil prices. investors could get a real sense of the health of the u.s. economy this week with reports on the consumer prices and retail sales. we get earnings from some of the biggest retailers out there. including home depot and walmart which could offer clues into american households facing stress from higher inflation as well as interest rates. joining me now is david bellinger at mizuho. david, this is a key week for a lot of different reasons, but the consumer is in focus. what exactly can we expect in your mind? >> hey, dom. thanks for having me on this morning. i think it is clear the pace of the consumer spending has moderated. we are looking for as we get to earnings season and we hear from

home depot tomorrow and walmart later in the week. it seems investors are baking in a weak q2 period. you have some of the broad based lower-end consumer trickling across or migrating to the middle-income earning slowing down a bit. it seems as though the numbers have been couched for a weaker q2 period. maybe we get guide downs for the companies. if we couple that with the lower back half guide is expected. >> within your coverage universe, the keys for you, the big names you focus on is lowe's and home depot. you've got a lot of other names you look at. chewy, auto zone. discretionary names. with lowe's and home depot, how

indicative is this of the consumer or indicative of the housing and interest rate market in transition? >> good question. highly indicative of the u.s. consumer. these are in the crosshairs of the weaker market. you have choppy weather. that will weigh on demand. they have more resilient categories across the store. we are looking for more of stabilization and spending from home depot and lowe's the following week. these bigger ticket items and ones that lend to some type of financing like a large home renovation or kitchen remodel, those have been under serious pressure of late. those start to stabilize and tend to improve slightly as we get through the tougher comparisons. i think that would be a very good sign for both of these and broader sign that consumer spending is back on a better

pace. >> how key will interest rates be to the lowe's and home depot story? we know when interest rates move lower, there is, perhaps, more propensity for customers to spend on bigger ticket items. those bigger ticket items have been flagged for weakness for quarters now. >> that's right. lower rates are a cheap proponent of this story. that will take time. rates will come down and home sales will pick up. maybe a delay of three or six or nine months. i think lowe's is better exposed. they have more of the light diy projects that pick up when people move. painting or buying appliances or barbecues or patio-type items. when you see the turn, lowe's will benefit quicker, but home depot is right there as well. both of the names should work as rates begin to move lower.

>> just before we let you go, david, how key is this setup in the coming, say, weeks or month or two ahead of the back-to-school and eventually holiday shopping season? do things look good heading into the fourth quarter? >> yeah, i think the consumer is still in decent shape. we have a lot of questions of what does all of the election noise mean? a shortened holiday season. things in the defensive space is o'reilly auto space and v valvoline. they are not as exposed to the discretionary side. consumers are trying to position ahead of the noise here. >> all right. david bellinger of mizuho, thank you very much. >> thank you. we have a market flash for you right now.

we are watching sales of starbucks after the "wall street journal" after starboard value built up stake in the company. shares are moving higher to the tune of 2.5% for starbucks shares. we will keep you abreast of details on our side here. coming up on the show, not done yet. hindenberg research with a scathing report sending shares lower. first, "deadpool & wolverine" tops the box office for the third straight weekend. it brought in $54 million in north america and topped the $1 billion mark worldwide. it is only the second "r" rated film to surpass that mark. the first one was "joker" back in 2019. tesla stopped taking orders for the cyber truck priced at

$61,000. customers can only get their hands on the dual motor version at $100,000 and the tri-model that costs $120,000. tesla expects the truck to be profitable later on this year. you can now get a crave case for less. white castle is cutting back prices to lure back customers. it is selling sacks of ten cheese sliders for $7.99. the lowest price for white castle burgers in more than a decade. turning back the block on white castles. we'll be right back. ( ♪♪ )

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drinkcirkul.com. welcome back. time for your morning call sheet. piper sandler upgrading robinhood with the price of $23. it believes in the pull back is an a trattractive entry point. bank of america upgrading liberty global to neutral saying its several strategic moves lock value including the value of the swiss sunrise business. wells fargo is upgrading allstate to neutral weight. lower interest rates and the prospects for extremely active

wind and hurricane season factor into the thesis. time for the global briefing. the u.s. is sending more submarines to the middle east. defense secretary lloyd austin saying they will defend israel. it will deploy fighter jets to the middle east as well. shares of adani lose $9 billion after fraud allegations. the firm says the chief regulate erin invested in the same fund. hindenberg called out adani in 2023. the salaries of ftse 100 ceos rose by more than $600,000 last year reaching the highest level since 2017.

the median pay is $5 million, up 2% from last year, but still lagging the figure from 2022. that pale ns into comparison to the u.s. ceo which rose last year. coming up, one word every investor needs to know and the big disney unveil and if that is enough to move the stock. keep it right here. the disney story. we'll be right back. rs. today's challenge is to play 9 holes without the middle of your bag. how does that sound? that sounds terrible. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." shares of disney are up .50%. bob iger is pulling back the curtain at the company's biannual expo and shows what is in store in the not so distant future. >> hello. >> the most epic event. >> we had to put something together. >> let's get started. >> what is up, d-23? >> welcome to the most magical showcase on earth. >> this is wild. >> should we show them a little something? >> buckle up, my friends. >> star studded. that's what that was. among the many highlights is the

addition of the villains lands in orlando and the monsters inc. in california. four new disney cruise ships and the first "star wars" movie since 2019 and expansions in paris and shanghai and hong kong. the weekend reveal coming days after the earnings report showed a significant slowdown in the theme park business. one the company expects to continue over the next few quarters. joining me now is david joyce, the senior analyst at seaport research partners, who last week downgraded the disney stock to hold and withdrew his $120 target price. david, good morning. d23 generated a lot of buzz, but should investors buy into the buzz? >> the d23 expo attracts the greatest disney fans, but it

shows the depth and breadth of franchises that are evergreen. they can keep adding to the experiences expanding the parks that people love and creative with adding to the cruise lines with those experiences as well. it is very good from the long-term perspective of the disney holder or investor in that they do keep sustaining the value of the intellectual property. this is really a long-term play. adding these lands to each of the parks will take three-to-four years until they're open, but it is good to know you have the sustainable pipeline of new experiences to keep bringing people back to the parks. the downgrade last week was short-term oriented. i feel over the next couple quarters, shares will stay where they are until you see the consumer attending the parks

again. i also downgraded to neutral on the streaming service which we thought would do more profitability next year. now they will invest more in the user interface. it is a combination of factors. long-term, d23 does support the disney franchise. >> there's the downgrade. the longer term story is in tact. the hold rating is there for a reason as you point out. at what point do you start advising clients to say, hey, this is the time to start building positions? when does it become attractive? is it on the numbers side of things or a potential catalyst outside the numbers you need to say for you to say yes we need to build position. >> this is a significant macro play. you want to see the level of spending at the parks where the price increases have been going up a lot.

they have been going up because the costs have been going up a lot. you have the twofold factor there. i would really look to some of the macro trends of us not going into a recession. if you see similar signs of consumer discretionary spending starting to tick up again, it seems to be a bit on pause at this point. that could be a reason to use that macro trend as a reason to get into disney for the long term supported by the long term supply that's going to be driving that demand to the marks and cruise lines as the main economic driver for the company for now. >> and, david, the theme parks and some of the slowdown is being keyed on a little bit more because the story macro-wise, as you pointed out, has shifted to growth fears and consumer growth fears. you mentioned streaming before. what do you need to see with

disney plus or hulu to make sure the streaming is on the right footing? >> right before earnings, they did announce another set of price increases for streaming services. you need to watch the subscriber reaction to that because that is coming at the same time where they are cracking down on the password sharing like netflix did last year. that ended up being successful because that helped them to rollout the cheaper ad tiers. you might get more positivity in sentiment on the company and on the streaming services when you see how well that price increase sticks and how well that translates into more subscribers coming along at the cheaper ad tiers. it is a turbulent business model shift. it takes a little time to work through things, but you have to watch the subscriber reaction and that will hopefully offset the investments the company intends to make on the technology side or user

interface side of the streaming service in the next year. >> david joyce at seaport. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> for more on the disney story, subscribe to cnbc pro and get exclusive access to one of our many daily insights, including this one here, disney and the a.i. stock are among the most oversold stocks this week and could be due for a bounce. these are all interesting stories our cnbc pro team has put together. the cnbc pro screened for overbought stocks on the street and among those due for a bounceback due for disney. take-two interactive and ulta beauty and airbnb and monster beverage. coming up on the show, the dug of war between market fear and market optimism. which side will win out? our next guest sheds insight on it. if you haven't done so, follow our podcast. if you miss "worldwide

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up." michelle bowman says rate cuts

will be needed if inflation keeps falling. the bank needs to be patient and un undermining progress to every single data point. brian moynihan speaking with "face the nation" yesterday, moynihan says spending to weaken if the fed doesn't lower rates soon. former ceo susan wojcicki dies at age 56. sundar pichai honored her on x calling her part of google history. and vice president kamala harris raised $13 million in the silicon valley last night. since stepping in, her campaign raised $$310 million compared t $139 million for trump's campaign. and trump media and tech is down

from a year ago with the stock well off the highs following the public debut in march. here's what to watch this week. we get earnings from two of the biggest retailers with home depot out tomorrow and walmart out on thursday. we will hear from cisco and an supplied materials and ali baba and deere. other key items this week include the july producer price index or ppi or housing starts and the eu in japan released preliminary data on second quarter gross domestic product. let's see how the week is shaping up. futures are modestly moving right now. the dow implied lower by 13 points. the s&p by 5 points and nasdaq up by 30. joining me now is degas wright of decatur capital. he is a cnbc contributor. degas, the market is set up

where many investors, understandably so, are a little bit on edge. take us through whether you are positive or negative. >> good morning, dom. i am positive because last week, 70% of s&p 500 beat estimates by 78%. also, the earnings growth is up some 10.8 which is higher than 2021. this is a positive week because market sentiment is changing to the positive. >> all right. if it is positive right now, what parts are you going back into? it seems a lot of folks are going back into mega cap technology and the a.i. trade. >> well, we're looking for companies that have growing earnings because that's where we see the strengths. we are not looking at any individual sectors. we are looking at individual companies and the story behind the earnings growth.

>> what exactly are those companies, degas? you have to have an idea of the shopping list >> exactly. one company we like is sprouts farmers market. it is up expectations up 9%. it had a 22% earnings growth. another company is kl corp. expectations up 9% and surprise earnings 9% in july. also truist bank. earns surprise of 8% in july. >> what is interesting is you have the higher-end grocery chain, a play on consumer spending. kla for the chip sector and truist on the financial side. does that mean you think things are going to be better going forward? >> we do because you see we spread out as you indicated, we're hitting all sides of the

economy. >> all right. your word of the day, degas? >> discipline. we believe that all investors should be looking at investor policy statements to make sure you are on target for your objectives. we look at three buckets. if last monday kicked over a bucket, you have the wrong asset allocation. >> degas at decatur, thank you very much. see you soon. keep it right here. "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. fl inflation data in focus after the volatile week on wall street. we will get you new data on the consumer and new key retail earnings as well. speaking of the consumer, bank of america's brian moynihan is raising the red flag. if the fed doesn't move, it

could hit the consumer. big family dominates the box office. it is monday, august 12th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with kelly evans and mike santoli. joe and becky are off this morning. welcome to the circus. a lot going on. let's show you where equity futures are right now. s&p opening four points higher. nasdaq up 32 points higher. the dow is off 18.5 points. we will flip the board around and show you treasuries. ten-year at 3.9. the two-year at