months. >> good. thank you. sarat, what have you got? >> shchlumberger, slb. >> visa at the bottom of its te ten-year valuation range. >> consulting and it had weakness and it's coming back and defense contract and defense is great. >> thanks, everybody. see you on "the bell." ♪ ♪ thank you, scott and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead. what a difference a week makes. tech is back at the top. the ten-year yield is creeping back towards 4% and the vix is almost back in the teens. on top of all of that, this week's cpi and retail sales and inflation expectation hit a three-year low according to the fed's latest survey. how long can it last? we'll discuss that and get a few names to buy right now. speaking of the consumer, get ready for retail, earnings wrap up and the analyst who nailed the slowdown in home renovations

two years ago is back with a preview and what's got her concerned now. >> plus nvidia shares are up about 5% today and it's one of the best performers on the s&p and the nasdaq 100. of steve grasso thinks how much gas could be left in the tank. let's get the market action and dom chu is bringing us the numbers this fine hour. >> the numbers are very stable and a lot of traders will take that given the volatility that we saw last week, but for right now the dow industrials are the performer. 39,307 the last trade there, the broader index is at 5338. it's down a modest five to six points which is a 0.1% loss here and at the highs of the session we were not that much higher, but we were up 27 points and down 20 at the lows. there is your trading range so far today stuck somewhere in the middle tilting toward the lower end of things and the nasdaq composite, the outperformer and

that's only up 0.1% and 17 for the composite index. kelly mentioned nvidia. it is important because during the course of the last week when traders and investors did jump in to buy whatever dip there was last week, there were two stocks in particular in magnificent seven land that were the best performers. over the last week, it is nvidia up roughly 9% in meta platforms and not far behind, up 8% and the mag seven with the worst relative performance is tesla which has lost 1% over the course of the last week and it's something that i'm sure you will talk more about during the course of this hour. and then the stock of the day, one of the best performers in the entire market is regional bank keycorp out of ohio. up 8% and this after scotia bank in canada, inks a deal to take a nearly 15% stake in keycorp for

$2.8 million in cash and another tranche in the beginning of next year, but overall keycorp benefiting from some of that minority investment coming from scotia bank and we'll see if that spurs activity in the regional lenders, kelly. i'll send things back over to you. >> very curious to see if that's the case, dom, thanks. >> my next guest says when it comes to markets expect the unexpected especially as they start to ease. let's bring in aaron dunn. good to have you here all of the way down from boston. >> glad to be here. what's the significance? i know it's an obvious question, but as you think through it, what are the ops as they start to ease? >> i think there's a global easing cycle coming. we saw it in london. we saw it in the uk and we saw it in australia and it caused the yen carry trade to unwind which is very technical and it's good to see the markets calm down from last week and i'm

pretty positive about that. what we're really looking at in our view is the restrictive monetary policy to reduce inflation. we think that's happening and we think part of that is supply chain related and you will see normalization of inflation and we think inflation will remain higher. >> let me back up for a second. do you think policy -- what's more significant? the fact that policy is so tight or that they're embarking. does the yen volatility say to you when you say expect the unexpected that the cuts aren't some kind of panacea. are you seeing them as a catalyst and trigger in a positive way or something to watch out for? >> yeah. i think you always see positioning in times like that. we see a big year move in and the 10-year treasury and we're seeing where positioning is, and we saw that move. i still think we're in an environment that's very different from where we were with pre-2020-2021. so we're dealing with a lot of

issues that still emmate from that period. >> like higher inflation. >> structurally higher inflation. we called it generationally higher inflation and what i mean by that is in the past 20 years, 15+ or so, if you had very low inflation and the fed funds rate was very low you had good productivity in what you see today and in our opinion it's a little different, right? it's a little more uncertain and you see structurally higher labor costs. those two things to us will cause inflation to remain higher which means the fed has to thread the needle. >> we should talk about the stock picks and i wonder if the data is pointing toward, hey, maybe it could be disinflationary and maybe china is a big part of the story and they were supposed to be behind the structural labor costs, and does your portfolio have to bed for that thesis to be the case or can they have their way?

>> i think reducing that a little bit will help a lot of corporate views on where they're going to spend capital, and also, you know, a lot of that is i think there's sort of pent-up demand to put that capital to work. so it does need to play out, and we would also bar bell this with some other ideas, as well because we think it will be very volatile. >> you mentioned one of the discussion points in the market right now which is around if you wanted to get defensive, what would that look like? i mean, should you be in staples? should you be in outtims? do you want to be riding the tails of the ai innovation for better or for worse there? >> we've been writing about this, and we are far more interested in utilities and there will be an inflexion in demand and we're on the precipice of this, demand and electricity use in the country whether it be data center-related. we've had flat number because of

energy efficiency and we are current for utilities and we think that's coming and the investment that has to happen for that to occur is also very interesting, and that's what we see in the market. we are seeing people invest in industrial companies and in our opinion staples are challenged rather than utility. i would rather own the utility in general to bar bell the portfolio. >> why do you think staples are challenged and mike santoli looked at it and it will have a walmart and a costco in it. you can say it because they're fully valued. would you include them or are you talking more about consumer packaged goods and those things? >> let's call them household products. >> if you look at the food stocks they're less expensive and we're challenged and a lot of this has come from price. you still have the consumers with the stock in the pantry and you see it treading down in the generic products at the store.

so it's really challenged for a lot of these companies so the volume, you just haven't seen the volume. you see the heavy reliance on price and that's going to be a problem because now promotion will pick up. >> right. >> so you will have a deflation on the price side, as well. that in my ruview is challengin and then throw in gdp once. >> let me mention your stock picks. b.j.'s, is that right? is that one of them? >> yes. >> you liked one of the midwest companies. >> cms. >> slb, why did these stand out for you especially at this point and what you perceive is the cycle? >> we describe our process opportunistic value. we're looking at good businesses, good returns and not over levered and it helps protect capital on the down side and we buy something we think is cheap and this is a warehouse

concept and ma this is is it trades quite a bit cheaper than costco. they have a couple of good things for them, they have store growth that costco will be most challenged with because they've been an east coast concept and they have a balance sheet that's really good, underlevered to where it should be in our opinion and it means people should buy that stock and they're saving consumers and this is where we are focused on consumer landes. where can we help the consumer? that's grocery bask seet is 30% lower than at a grocery store. >> why does cms stand out to you on the utility side? >> it's a region very friendly to utilities and it's a michigan utility. this is a regulated utility and we can get to the nuances. >> unregulated ones? >> oh, yes. who play in a different part of the space. >> yes.

renewables and a different part of the market. in utility-regulated land and cms is a great management team and it's in a good jurisdiction for utilities to operate and it has a friendly public utility commission and not in a wildfire area, right? so this is one area where the market has been challenged with. it's a very solid utility. not going to kill you and a safe place to put capital, and the utility are not too far so stick there where they can grow mid-single digit. >> appreciate your time. aaron dunn with morgan stanley. let's turn now to emerging markets, shall we? which my next guest says they don't have an inflation or growth problem, they have a fed problem. they will open up much-needed capital flows and joining me is the head of pimco. welcome? >> thank you for having me, kelly. what do you mean of the risks

coming from the fed. explain how this all plays out? >> for emerging markets we've had a hard time and we've been hit from successive shocks from covid to wars in ukraine and the middle east, but more recently the tight edge of financial conditions particularly in the u.s. has been one of the major concerns and what it does is it sucks capital away from the emerging markets and into the u.s. and the u.s. money markets. so it sort of stands toreason that if we think you're on the precipice of non-recessionary rate cuts some of those can start to reverse and that could be a boon for emerging market policymakers. >> it's a little bit of a boom and bust type of cycle. which one can you own and experience exciting returns. >> the right kind of exciting. not the wrong kind. >> so when we look at various middle-income countries we think that there are a certain subset of countries where the policy

rates are too high for the domestic cyclical conditions and countries like mexico, brazil, south africa and peru in particular have effectively been awaiting like a deer in headlights for the federal reserve to start, and they fine-tune their own monetary policy back to cyclical realities. you also take a look at a country like turkey which is at the moment where the fiscal framework has changed versus where it was five years ago. it's a tight, monetary conditions and tight fiscal conditions and we're starting to see impacts of declining inflation based on the tightness of financial conditions there. >> so i think people are wondering, okay, if all these dislocations present an attractive entry point, is there an interesting trade to be made here? you know, we've heard bullish commentary about india and we've heard caution about china and maybe there's opportunity in mexico, maybe all these consensus ideas are priceded in.

what do you think? >> i think a lot of them are priced in, and i think a lot of volatility in the last few weeks was a sign of that where it wasn't really predicated on fundamental weakness in the underlying economy, but more that the carry trade his been overly subscribed and we've seen quite a substantial amount from the carry trades can it allows active managers to go on the front foot now and we've been looking to add back some of these high-conviction ideas and over time as the federal reserve does normalize policy and it will make its way to e america economies and emerging markets has been heavily under allocated, too, and it only takes a stabilization of those flows to start realizing the high yields that are embedded in these currencies. >> we appreciate your time this afternoon. we'll check in with you soon. >> jetblue planning to raise debt offerings and investors don't like it and these

offerings would be backed by its loyalty program, but the shares are now down 19%. the big three ratings firms are downgrading their credit as a result of this announcement. we'll look at the broader outlook for travel with jetblue having the worst day since the start of the pandemic, but first, vice president harris and former president trump are locked in a tight race for the white house and the fate of the nation could be left up to the so-called swing voters. we'll drill down on the group's top issues next on "the exchange." this is "the ehae"n bc.cng o at aes, our energy solutions have powered the world forward for more than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo - our new ai-enabled solar robot.

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welcome back to "the exchange." the road to the white house this year is likely to go through the key group known as swing voters, but who are they and which policies are top of mind for them? steve liesman is here with the results from cnbc's all-america economic survey. hi, steve. ? hey, kelly. good afternoon. you know with former president trump and vice president harris neck and neck in our survey and harris leading modestly in others, the election comes down to the perplexing group called swing voters. they look like republicans in some ways and democrats in others. let's take a look. our different definition of swing voters is this. we have independents in the group, undecided voters or harris voters who want democrats to control congress and ticket splitters. they have a margin of 3.1% and

it's 7% for the swing group because the sample is far you will smaer. let's look at what they are. they represent 20% of all voters and 31% of latinos in our survey fall into the group. others look like average voters in the total and look to be by either 24%, 25% when you look at a lot of these different groups. what stands out is how much they dislike former president trump. swing voters are negative on trump by minus 39 and their net approval of harris is about the same at minus nine. by a 28 to 8 margin they believe they'd be better off financially under a trump presidency than harris and the majority think it doesn't matter and which is to say neither side has much appeal to this group economically.

on the issues, they're more likely to look like republicans on the importance of the economy, crime and safety and taxes and they look more like democrats in things like healthcare, abortion and social security. overall who will be better to bring positive change with 31% saying neither? those are your swing voters. for trump, the way to the white house looks to be improving. his overall approval among swing voters and for harris it would mean gaining the economy on the economy and appealing to latinos. >> i wonder if we'll get more detail on what will happen with taxes and if that will help sway things and things on the economic front are a little more abstract and perhaps more granularity will make it more real for people. >> i think that's true for both sides and a person trying to cover it. for example, how will either bring down inflation.

our poll shows that it has an edge over harris. as far as i can tell, his plan involves lowering the cost of oil and that would apparently bring down all prices according to him and we just don't know exactly what the harris plan is on inflation, though it would appear to be doubling down on the inflation reduction act and some government administrative measures to bring down the cost to the average consumers. >> that's true, too. >> steve, thanks. we appreciate it. our steve liesman. sticking with the topic, tech donors and vice president harris made a campaign stop in san francisco yesterday raising more than $12 million. the trump campaign dealing with a different tech issue and they were the victim of an email cyber attack. deidre bosa there to wrap it up in today's "tech check." what do we know? >> it was the tale of two campaigns dealing with tech over the weekend. the trump campaign hack and this

is a taste of more cyber operations to come. the trump campaign says a foreign hacker gained access to internal communications and then pointing to a microsoft report that said it was a phishing attack. someone simply clicking on something in an email that they shouldn't have clicked on and how these types of attacks will factor into the election this year. phishing was used to score an influence coverage and the second, all about kamala harris' home coming of sorts and san francisco is where she came up and where she has a lot of friends and supporters. the fund raiser just a few blocks from here and it raised $13 million and it comes after trump's much smaller fund raiser here in the city, reinforcing just how important support in the tech community has become this election cycle, as well as their dollars, of course.

harris' fund rauzer was much bigger than trump's and we'll show you the lineup to get into fair mount, and as massive crowds. >> should we expect policy pushes coming out of the silicon valley backers who some lined up around trump and others now obviously coalescing around harris? >> policy is the key word here and we just don't know all that much about either's policy, of course. trump's running mate j.d. vance says a former venture capitalist who has stuck up for so-called little tech. that is more of the start-ups that compete with the incumbents, the mega-caps that we know. kamala harris is a bit more of of a question mark. i mean, the biden administration's policy towards tech is seen by many people here as hostile in terms of the regulators, in terms of the crackdown on the mega-cap giants. so i think a lot of folks are curious as to what her policy is

going to be and it's an open question for both of them, but i think there is this general thinking that nothing can be as bad as the biden administration. >> also curious as we get more details about the spear phishing attack on the trump campaign roredly perpetrated by iranian agents? >> yes, and that would be different than sort of that 2016 playbook where we saw more russian influence. so that is according to a report from microsoft that says that iranian-based backed groups have been a lot more active in recent months. so that's certainly something something to watch for and this is likely just the beginning and we'll bring those out. >> deirdre bosa reporting. chipmakers are in the green after snapping a three-week losing streak and they have a long way to go, and the etf hit an all-time high almost a month ago today, until then, intel and super micron and nvidia are down

20% to 30% and we'll look at whether to buy this bounceback ahead. as we head to break, the russell 2000 is down almost 1% today. the s&p and the nasdaq positive. we're back after upon this. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

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♪ ♪ take a quick look at the even split, roughly. actually, we have decliners more outpacing advancers, but the nasdaq 100 is still positive this hour. names like wbd are among the worst performers down 5% while some of the harder hit chip stocks are rebounding. in the meantime let's get over to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. tyler? >> thank you very much. ukraine now controls 386 square miles of russian territory in the kersk region and that's according to a commander in a frontline briefing posted on volodymyr zelenskyy's telegram channel. it's the first time a military official has publicly commented on the incursion and its gains. lawyers for hunter biden say claims about his foreign

business dealings have no place in his upcoming tax trial. prosecutors told the judge last week they wanted to call a witness to testify about an arrangement with a romanian business person who was trying to influence u.s. policy while president biden served as vice president. the trial is set to begin next month in los angeles. . your morning coffee could be getting more expensive as prices for arabica beans as the producer expects a rise. it could add more stress caused by dry weather and that could hurt next year's coffee crop. kelly, back to you. >> that's one place i see shrinkflation the most. it will be 8 if this continues. thank you very much, tyler mathisen. expedia after earnings, and it's been a different story for trip adviser and airbnb and they

both plunged on results earlier in the week and we'll tell you what expedia ceo is seeing and why it is taking the road less traveled and home depot reporting before the bell and that could change with lower rates on the horizon or could it? we'll dive in after this.thou it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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welcome back to "the exchange." this week is poised to bring us reads on the consumer via retail sales, sentiment and earnings from home depot and walmart. we've seen some cracks in spending so far this earnings season in the travel sector, as well. we'll dig into all of it with benchmark's daniel korvos momentarily and we have home depot's results. lori, do you have the results and you know what they'll say? >> it would be wonderful, i think, although not so much this quarter. i do know that most analysts expect sequential improvement this quarter and next which might be tough for them to pull off. one of the smaller companies we followed since their ipo years ago, l.l. flooring just announced chapter 11 today. they made it through the financial crisis. we just don't think we're out of the woods yet at least on

big-ticket renovationses. >> and how much further should we, you know, kind of brace for weakness and how much of this weakness is priced into the stock or should be? >> right. as you mentioned, the stock has been flat in the market up double digits year to date and it's mostly priced in because interest rates do start to come down, and i do think we're off to the races in this group. i think it's too soon to get excited because the fundamentals from our perspective are not showing improvement yet and they really are as bad on a multi-year basis as the numbers were, some of the metrics around tickets and big-ticket home renovations as weak as they were in the deepest years of the financial crisis. >> wow, is that so? in some cases we have to say they were so high during the pandemic, a sugar high. i think jamie dimon once used that term so a re-set is to be expected to some degree, but this is still quite a significant one. if you look out and say when you

gain exposure if the rate cuts are coming next month, why not step into the stocks now and then you think all of a sudden they can take off, right? >> we definitely want to get tomorrow's catalyst out of the way and next week for lowe's and see what they have to say. even once rates start moving down and it's a six-month lag before you see it fill in with projects again. so i would sit on my hands, at least until we get to next month. there will be time. i don't think now is it. >> so we've seen every now and then stocks like the homebuilders can take off, literally, 20, 30, 40% from the lows. you don't think this could be something like that? >> i think that it will be once we're certain of a turn, and i think we're not quite there. if you think about it, this makes sense because covid, there were so many renovations. you're not going to go back and replace your kitchen and bath twice in a five-year period, even. so it might take a while for

demand to recover. most of the investors we talked to are thinking will next year be an up here. we think it will be for home depot and lowe's, but it is getting close and we'll need a reversal pretty soon on rates. given that most of your coverage universe falls into this category and are there any stocks where you feel relatively more optimistic. >> look, i'm going outside of home for our buys. i really love off-price. i think t.j. max, ross, burlington start to report next week. we think they're taking a lot of share and picking up from the department stores and we've been donating share for a couple of decades now and it seems to have hit sort of an inflexion point and they've learned to update their assortment for higher price points to help that trade down customer when they come into the store. >> so if i asked you and if i'm the president and the head of the federal reserve and say what's going on with the consumer, can you tell or disaggregate it from the

post-pandemic normalization effect? >> it's not getting better. it seems to be getting worse sequentially and some of that may just be a stretch of inflation. energy bills with the summer energy bills coming in. i think it's some exhaustion around discretionary items, but except for that tradedown customer, we think the consumer is under pressure right now. any idea why i mentioned this a few times, but we saw this note from barclays and look, the positive catalysts are behind us now and we'll have to move into a holding pattern. so for the macro takeaways, we've had inflation for the past five months or so and is the market more than we realize, i wonder? >> election years are never great for the consumer. so we're not in a great period in q3 and then we hit the holidays and we have five fewer

days this year between thanksgiving and christmas. so we're just not get anything help from the calendar either electoral or the calendar in general. >> so you think there is a measurable effect because amazon called this out on its earnings and they said the olympics and the election cycle and people are distracted and critics weren't sure if they should take it searsly, but do you think that is the effect? >> i'm not sure about the olympics and consume or edge, if it's rational or not and this del of unenter certainty is not great for consumer spending. >> we'll see it there and we'll see what happens with the results in the weeks and months to follow. laura, thank you so much. good to check back in with you. >> let's turn to travel now where expedia beat on both the top and bottom line. late last week management said they've seen a more challenging macro environment and in an

interview on "squawk on the street the ceo remains optimistic for the longer term, but there is recent softness. take a listen. >> on the air ticket prices those have been coming down for a number of quarters. car rental days which had gone way up during the post-covid recovery are also coming down. on hotels, it's early days. as i said, some of it we're seeing as a consumer trade down. >> let's bring in daniel kernos covering the online travel names like expedia, daniel, welcome? >> thank you. thank you for having me. expedia is in a different spot than maybe the others and they're in a turnaround plan with the pain they took last year was self-inflicted and they're coming out of that verbo and the home rental platform seeing negative growth and it had just started to look positive before. the economy started to slow and not the only ones that have said it and we heard airbnb talk about domestic slowdown so we'll

see how this all plays out. i don't know that i would call it recession fears. we are still seeing very strong hotel pricing at this point which suggested there's a really strong underlying level of demand, but certainly, we are keeping our eye out on consumer demand at this point. >> is it possible that this is a two-humped camel and we saw the surge on spending on goods and that's been a problem for stocks like home depot and you're seeing the surge in demand. is that coming down now and are we facing kind lagged disinflationary or recessionary type of environment that we're going through for physical goods? >> i would characterize it more as a potential normalization. i think you're right about the higher level of spending and that probably wasn't sustainable and you can look at the chard d chard data and will we see this two-humped camel? i don't know. i do think there will be

persistent, underlying higher level of spend on services and goods, and people were, like, i have to get out of my house, right? i think you're at this point where you will see a higher level of experience, certainly the younger demographics are spending more of their paycheck taking these trips and living in the moment. i think that will be a longer term trend that you see here. quickly on airbnb, is that an issue of it literally getting more expensive and they'll ask you for a reset or is it going on. >> they are, in general taking lodging share on the alternative a a combination -- i think it was about the growth and not the margins for airbnb. airbnb hasn't even talked about recently getting into advertising and sponsored

listings and they'll reduce the tape rate and that will clearly push margins substantially higher and people are waiting for the shoe to drop and unfortunately they're losing the share game narrative. >> why not kick it across the arc or whatever? airbnb moves by inches and not by yards, kelly and i think they will get there eventually and there are things between now and then like building out experiences. i think that will be a very key component to sort of the next phase, but they have to be smart about sponsored listings, right? airbnb is the great user experience and the minute you introduced advertising to it, that's what's making them take their time. >> i appreciate them taking their time and i know they'll mature. >> i can't think of a single company that hasn't ultimately had to pull the purse strings that way. very quickly while you're here, why is paramount in the coverage universe and do you have anything to add in the weeks ahead about what strategic direction it might need to take or how long can it wait? >> i mean, it's taking the right

strategic direction and it's in my coverage universe because i'm tmt, and i have a broad brush here and we covered media stocks and i think paramount said the right things and they're following skydance's plan. at least it looks like that on the surface. i think, honestly, kelly, look at the space. frankly, that's just the first shoe to drop. we'll see massive consolidation in the space and consolidation on the streaming services and whether it's m and a and we all know warner is in a tough spot and in aggregate paramount is taking the right steps to improve profitability and we'll see how it all plays out and i think this is what the space needs to have happen for all these guys to justify the high cost they're paying for live sportses. >> any theories about first movers here? >> well, i do think that, theories on first movers, netflix dominates the market in being a first mover, so i do think there is a benefit if are

that and i do think we'll move to a consolidated tunnel, and i don't think you'll get it in one bundle. i do think that they'll help them if they do consolidate and it will give them a leg up and at some point it will allow the chips to fall. >> do you think it's lucrative much you? >> since they've lost so much money, all of them. yes, i think these areall lucrative businesses at some point. i think, frankly, they all made maybe a bit of a mistake falling down the rabbit hole too quickly and forcing the streaming turn, but at some point all of these guys get rational and they cut spend and say this is what i need to do to make money and we've always believed content is king, and i think that at the end of the day the consumer will pay for good content and will find the right level and whatever level that is will be a level that people can make money and by the way, if that involves sports contracts coming on

pricing at some point because those prices can't go up forever, and that may also be what has to happen. >> how dare you? i find it interesting that they'll read about the tech giants and they're contracting with cbs, so there's clearly still a role there. i just don't know what the economics are. >> yeah. it's tricky. it really depends on the pay wall, and i think, kelly, you could argue that a lot of the deals that these guys have done for carveouts have been uneconomical and the numbers probably bear that out, but this is a long-term consumer game. this is frankly about reach and until ctv gets to be a performance medium and i do think that reach slowly rise over time for live sports so ez advertisers will pay for good content that people are watching and where the eyeballs are, and

i think as long as you're reaching everybody and the nba is just starting to figure it out, i think that there is a path to profitability for everyone involved. >> it sounds wonderful, daniel. thank you so much. i appreciate your time today. coming up, it's been a rough month for robinhood whose shares are down 52%, but piper sandler is upgrading it from buy today saying the pullback is a buying opportunity and they expect rate cuts to be increased by trading activity and margin loan growth. >> robinhood now up 2.5% and jetblue after announcing new debt offerings and the shares are down 20% making it their worst day ever and we'll have a check on some of the other big movers of the day next.er mon or.

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." we were down 246 points at the session lows and off now with the dow down 154 and a lot of differentiation. the russell 2000 is the worst performer, and the nasdaq up a quarter percent and keep know eye on the 10-year treasury yield which is down considerably today and several basis points could have something to do with the inflation expectation's fed survey down 2% maybe for a three-year basis and in any case they were one of the lowest points we've seen in the last few years and that could be helping these disinflationary pressures. oil is still moving higher for the fifth straight day and this could be something to counterbalance that and it's up to 79 and change after already coming off its best week since march and that snapped a previous four-week losing streak and when you're $80 a barrel amid rising tensions in the region. the retail names are seeing weekness today. ulta and dollar tree at the

lowest since 2021 and walgreens at lows. analysts think maybe it's a competitive issue with sephora as opposed to a macro read through, but keep an eye on tree, as well. super micro and nvidia are back and it's back to the future we debate that next.

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and right now, xfinity internet customers can buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back to "the exchange." nvidia shares up nearly 5% today and more than 9 prs despite last week's selloff. our next guest saw the dip as a buying opportunity, upping his stake big time. let's bring in steve grasso. give me the deets, steve. good to see you. >> good afternoon, kelly. i love hindsight when it proves you're right. this was a binary instance. this could have gone very bad against me, but it didn't.

i look great on a micro basis after the fact. i own nvidia. i originally nvidia i should say in the 120s. that was my average. i expanded that position considerable so now my average is around 102. that's how much i was buying on that dip. once again, it could have -- that dip could have gained more trend, market could have sold off more precipitously. it didn't. once i started to see the market solidify, i really leaned into that position for nvidia. >> what's the exit strategy? >> so normally, you know, those of the people who follow me on twitter, i usually trade around a core position, which means that i'll have my core positions and then i'll trade tails around this. the tail actually became the

core. i think the stock probably trades back up to the 120 range and, you know, shorter term obviously 115. that was just a blink of an eye of where it was today. i think you'll see higher prices. i think the market has to perform well. the market doesn't perform well, this is definitely a momentum stock and you'll see a 120 print sooner rather than later. >> i wonder, not that the bloom is coming off the rose, but there's a sense, when you see apple intelligence coming out and nvidia trading, some of these other rollouts that don't require big expensive work horses, are they telling people there's a way to participate in the a.i. rush without it necessarily being the nvidia share price doubles and it becomes a $6 trillion company? have we dialed that back a little bit i wonder? >> i think that's a valid premise. when you think about it, they still own 85% of the market

share in a.i. maybe the -- to the extent of the chip that's going to be used could change, depending on which sector of the economy you're in. if you want premium, you're g going with nvidia. everyone we heard from is increasing their spend in chips. do they all need the highest priced chip? maybe not, but they'll be buying some aspect of nvidia. i think we saw that drawdown pretty effectively last week and i think people are getting back into an understanding that the fundamentals are still sound. >> that's my last question. after everything that's happened, it feels back to the future to me. if we don't come out of this repositioning and say it's time to reposition into the smaller caps and midcaps, it's no.

yields are lower. nvidia is faking off. what does that tell you? >> if you look at the chart on iwm on the ksmall caps, 45% or o of small caps are unprofitable companies. in the '90s that number was 15%. people want the fortified balance sheet, where they have growings and small caps are growing. yes, i think we are back to the future. no matter which sector you're investing in, it will evolve with chips and that takes technology. >> steve grasso, doubling down, all the good this. an for joining us today. we appreciate it. that's it for "the exchange." power "power lunch" is up next on the other side of the break. don't go away.

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y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] ♪ ♪ good afternoon. welcome to "power lunch." i'll tyler mathison. we start with a check on the markets. stocks are a little mixed right now. dragging on the dow today, the safer defensive plays like procter & gamble and coca-cola all with red losses. walmart on pace fo