years. so really doubling down on that parks and experiences division. >> all right. very interesting. always interesting to hear about what the house of the mouse is doing. julia, thank you very much. and thank you, folks, for watching "power lunch" for a monday. "closing bell" will start in a few seconds time. see you back here tomorrow. thanks, welcome to "closing bell." i'm live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the risk-reward for stocks. whether it's gotten better following last week's volatility. we'll ask our experts over this final stretch. meantime check out the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the major averages are sort of taking a wait-and-see approach to the data deluge. we have inflation data, retail sales, consumer earnings, as well, lying ahead. it will be a good test for the markets given all these questions about the direction of the u.s. economy. nvidia, it is one of the standouts along with other chip names like micron and amd.

they're positive. apple higher, too. analyst dan ives has upped his iphone 16 sales numbers. that stock's good . a lot riding on the next several days, an understatement. let's ask cameron dawson what's at stake. chief investment for new age wealth. good to see you. did we solve whatever issues we needed to solve last week? >> we definitely solved some of the issue with positioning. i think that is the one silver lining that cape out of last week is that if you look at the deutsche bank consolidated positioning report it went from being way extended, way overeight, 96 percentile now 31st percentile. you it shook out loose hands. that sets the stage to draw more money into the equity market. there are concerns, a growth scare, earnings. from the positioning front it's good. >> what about the cherry tree that got all this attention? no one knows whether it's fully

unwound or what else may lie overseas based on other central bank moves, we're so fixated on the fed here. but we're learning that other central banks hold the key very much so to where this market may if, too. >> certainly. if we look at things like cftc positioning which is not perfect for looking at yen positioning, it has bounced back a lot, meaning that a lot of shorts have been covered. but it does raise the point that we could still be in this world of higher volatility in fx markets and note this week high volatility within fixed income, cpi, ppi, and fixed sales. >> what's the most important the retail read or what felt like a panic attack a week ago today? >> because we think there's a greater risk for downside to growth than there is a risk for upside to inflation, we think retail sales is actually more important. of course cpi or ppi comes out hot, that could spark a lot of volatility, mostly in the bond market. remember the bond market still has quite a few cuts priced in,

four cuts priced in through the end of the year. if we think about that growth story, it really will give an eye to how accurate is the labor market data. if retail sales falls off, we might know that the labor market could be weaker than the headline data suggests. >> the way you put this to our production team was, what happened last week, quote, reset the clock. >> uh-huh. >> for equities, to give them more room to run. it got through a lot of issues that needed to be taken care of. what runway do you see exist willing? >> in theory it resets the clock meaning because of the repositioning reset it helps to start from a point where we're not as stretched. i think one interesting observation is we went from very overweight positions to now neutral, slightly under weight with relatively little pain. so as people get brought back in, do we get the same kind of boost than if it had come with a bigger drawdown in the market. the other thing to note is markets got a little oversold last week, but on things like percentage of names above their 50-day moving average, we got

not oversold at all. which suggests we didn't see a free flush. >> -- true flush. >> what surprised you more, the magnitude of the monday selloff or magnitude of the rebound where we finished the week, call it for the s&p at least, flat? >> yeah. i think that it is absolutely incredible that you saw it end flat given the amount of pain that was absolutely anticipated at the beginning of monday. and that you quickly threw away this idea of growth fears. it really helped to focus in on that maybe all of the much ado that happened friday and monday was just about positioning, and maybe the growth fears were just a narrative. that doesn't mean we can't ignore risk as we hear from walmart and home depot this week about the consumer. >> let's go positioning then. what are we supposed to do now in terms of what the best portfolio might look like? we went from over exposed maybe to mega caps at the expense of a lot of other stuff, then mega caps sold off in july, and we had a nice reversal for some of these unloved areas.

now we have reintroduced volatility, so i'm not sure what we're supposed to do from here. >> yeah. for us, regardless of what the overarching narrative might be, we think quality is just so very important because what we found over the last week in our quality-focused portfolios is that because we had valuation discipline, we had really good downside capture. just means that we go down less than what the market goes down, but you can still participate in the upside because you're not full defensive. so it's that needle to thread of saying we want companies that can block and tackle if the economy is weakening, but we don't want to be crowded in areas like utilities or staples which we know are perking up which does get our eye about the risk appetite in the market. but those tend to reverse gains if you do see a better growth environment. >> what about growth versus value? >> uh-huh. >> pre- disposed to one side? >> we've been neutral growth versus value this year -- >> why? why? >> if you look at growth, it has better earnings, but it's very expensive and crowded. if you look at value, it's had

worse earnings, earnings revisions down. but it's under owned and under loved. what we've seen the last couple of weeks is growth versus value has reversed sharply, where value has outperformed growth. it is sitting right at its00-day moving average. it is the most critical point to see the direction of that trend. we think it all comes down to earnings. unless value can get its act together and have better earnings which some of that relies on things like energy and commodities, then we think that growth can still outperform, maybe not to the magnitude that it did at the first half of the year. >> what about small caps? everyone weighing in if the worst last week, the russell down 5.5 last monday. finished down 1.3. it had a nice comeback, but it didn't have as great a comeback as some of the other of the -- of the majors. did -- i don't know if you saw the interview that i did with tom lee to end the week. but he's optimistic and you know he a big call months ago about where he thought the russell could go, up 50%.

i said, tom, it's getting late for that. he said, rate cuts are going to be good nonetheless for small caps. let's listen and react on the other side. tom lee on friday. >> a lifeline for reducing cost of money for consumers which helps the banks. you know, you have huge exposure in the russell. i think when the market believes the cuts are imminent or maybe it's september, i think that's when the small cap call works. i think we've been wrong on the timing. i would like to have seen us to be up 20% at this point, but i still think 50% could happen before year end. >> kind of surprised that he said that. i still think 50% could happen before year end. >> yeah. mostly after we've already seen a big positioning reset. since that early july kind of rebound within small caps, you've seen positioning get back, almost back to the levels they got to in december of 2023. we think small caps have to have a very, very specific circumstance in order to outperform. you need rate cuts, and you need lower yields. but you also have to have a strong growth backdrop.

you can't have one or the other. you have to have both at the same time because if you're getting rate cuts because the economy is weakening, small caps are the most cyclical parts of the market. they're economically sensitive. so that's why a lot has to go right for small caps to work. >> do you think that's too heavy a lift? >> i think that it's possible, but to bet on that happening and to the magnitude of 50% is a really far reach. what we say is that we actually do like some parts of small caps, but we like names that don't need rate cuts in order to do well. we like names with better balance sheets, with less interest costs. so it's highly selective. we've been adding to small caps on that notion of if we can be picky, then that's where we think we can add value. >> people like rick reader, he joined me monday in the throes of it on this show. said i don't understand that call in the first place of, you know, small caps you can have money coming out of mega caps, go into small caps even with rate cuts because of what you

said. you need everything to go right. you can't have concerns about growth and then want to go into small cap stocks, can you? >> you have to believe in a true economic acceleration. the only time we see sustained outperformance for small caps is really at the beginning of an economic cycle. fed cuts rates, you have interest rates that are low. and you're rebounding off of the lows. and economic growth is improving and accelerating. that's the time to go way overweight small caps. not when we're having this debate as to whether or not we could be near the end of the cycle and slipping into a recession. >> let's bring in our contributor greg branch of branch global capital. good to see you both. iya, good of to you back. you say volatility is likely to be with us for a while. we're going to be stuck on a roller coaster for a while? >> i think so. i think we've got a lot of global macro headline risks that could always, you know, disrupt markets. i think there's -- the focus, though, on the long term and the

fundamentals that can sort of balance those out. so that we don't have too much volatility over the long term. >> greg branch, a week ago today you were thinking what? and given the comeback that we've had, did you -- did that force you to change your view? for our viewers, you've been largely cautious for a pretty left long time. i'm sure monday you may have said this may be what i'm talking about. what now? >> yeah. monday was a surprise to me. and to go back to the question you started the show with, i think it revealed a problem. i think cameron hinted at some of this, is that i think we are at least parts of us are in denial that a cycle need to occur. so nothing happened two weeks ago that should have been surprising. the fed has always represented to us they need to get to mid 4% employment for price stability.

114,000 jobs number is not out of line and certainly not even reaching neutral yet. so 150,000 in october. so i was surprised at the reaction when all we saw was the evidence that the fed's program was working, and what we should have expected when we saw the inflation numbers put up a very stark pivot for may when we had zero bips of core month o'er month growth and june where we had ten bips of core month-over-month growth. because a cycle need to happen, i agree with cameron that i'm cautious of permit or long sustained in this juncture and once that growth will in fact slow it's the only way to embed a sustainable 2% inflation, that investors will flock back to where the earnings are. and there will be a stark difference between those companies that can grow 20% and those that will grow mid single digits. >> but you -- are you implying

that the cycle is ending now? because the data doesn't necessarily confirm that. slowing, yes. ending, no. how do you respond? >> not ending, the slowing is in front of us. the fed will not cut rates unless it needs to reaccelerate the economy. and it's unclear, and i'm in the minority on this, it's unclear -- i'm unclear if that will be september. we have 2.8% gdp growth in the second quarter. the atlanta fed projects third quarter to be at 2.9%. earnings growth's going to come in at 11%. we've had 90% of the s&p report, 11%. that's the highest since the fourth quarter of 2021. consumer spending is basically unchanged the last few months. yes, we had a contractionary manufacturing report but that's in line with what we've had the last year. the services report was 51.8% which is roughly speaking a 1.2%, 1.3% gdp growth.

we haven't seen the economy crack yet. it's in front of us. and we're talking about rate cuts as though it will automatically alleviate that slowing, and it won't because the hiking cycle will be slower -- sorry, the cutting cycle will be slower than the hiking cycle will and it will take time to work through the economy. >> do you want to take issue with anything that greg said? the fed will not cut interest rates unless it needs to reaccelerate the economy. does he have it backwards? >> i think it's this great debate as to where we are versus where we're going. and it seems that the fed is looking at where we are. they're looking at the data today, and if seems they don't have much urgency. the bond market is looking at potentially where we're going, and that's where the urgency is going priced in -- is being priced. in the bond market has one super size cut in 2024. and the market has gone getting ahead of itself. there have been many pivot parties the last few years. it seems like those two are at odds and the fed saying really

no urgency, even on the fed not sounding the alarm, suggest that maybe the bond market will get disappointed. >> aya, people are coming on suggesting you should sell the first rate cut, not embrace it and buy it. >> hi, scott. you know, i think that the labor market is going to dictate a lot of this. i think -- we had the selloff on friday with the labor market data, and you know, we're going to be paying attention to all the weekly jobless claims data that we get. that's going to really dictate how quickly the fed moves, how much they move, and that's going to determine more than anything else. >> i mean, greg, the fed i think is making it clear, they're -- they're not going to wait around and let the economy fall apart and then first cut interest rates like you're implying. they want to prevent the whole thing from happening because i

think they feel pretty good about where they are. where they somehow have been able to bring this plane, along a way that many predicted was going to be a much more difficult landing than maybe in the cards. >> right, i'm not being critical. and in fact i was specific about what i was implying. if we have 2.9% gdp growth in the third quarter, as the atlanta fed is projecting, then we haven't seen the economy slow yet, scott. and so when putting up 114,000 new jobs, that is not a neutral number. is it coming? sure, of course. 80% of americans have liquid assets that are about 13%. this was a study from the san francisco fed. 13% less than what they were projected to be pre-pandemic. so you know, the bottom 80% of earners are certainly stretched. but even in the retail numbers, they're the same. their inchanged. is it coming, of course. can the fed avert it? i don't think they want to.

you got to remember one of their mandates is price stability, and they have a failing grade against that for three years. so will they endure 4.3, 4.2% unemployment to make sure that our newfound price stability which is probably imminent is maintained? i think that they will. >> a failing grade on price stability for three years? i mean, i think anybody would admit that they were sort of late to raise rates, but -- they seem by virtue of their efforts to be both swift and large in what they've done, that they may actually be winning. >> yeah. look, it is going the way that they anticipated. but we're not at 2%, and we had generational inflation for two years. so look, i don't mean it to be minimizing. it's a hard job. but yeah. we are not at 2%. we've had generational inflation for two years. i would call it a failing grade in terms. price stability.

i think if you ask 80% of americans they'd agree. >> well, i mean, people who are sick and tired of paying higher prices for so many different daily products, i hear you. but they're also going to cut rates before inflation gets to down to 2%. when you look at positioning, that's ultimately what the last week has been about. as cameron said off the top. what positioning is best now? >> i think we have to remember that diversification is your friend. i think we got lost in focusing so much on the mega cap tech companies that have really been the workhorses of the market for so long. but we can see that the broadening out of the market is actually a good thing for all of us. diversification is positive for everybody in their portfolio. >> and we have, what, two weeks and a couple of days, cameron,

lastly to you, on nvidia. is that the next catalyst for mega cap stocks? is it the only sort of thing that's going to be the determining factor as to whether this trade has a renewed leg, whether it truly is in trouble, is that the moment? >> i mean, we are in this august quiet period. so all eyes will be on it. and we do think it could be a source of volatility. and it will probably be more interesting not the numbers but the reaction to the numbers. because there's pretty high confidence that the numbers will be good based on all the trends, intraquarter that we've heard from nvidia. it's the reaction, and is good good enough for a stock trading at these levels? >> good reaction today. up more than 4%. a wild week in the last seven. we'll see what happens. thank you so much. greg, good to see you, cameron, good to have you back here at post nine, as well. to pippa stevens for another look at names. >> shares of hawaiian electric on the worst day of the year

after disclosing a going concern warning saying it doesn't have a financing plan in place for the $1.7 billion in fees for the maui windstorm and wildfire settlement. the company also suspended its dividend and posted a consolidated net loss of $1.3 billion in the second quarter. shares of marathon digital also in the red after the crypto miner announced plans for 250 million private debt offering which could later be converted to stock. the company said it plans to use proceeds from the sale to acquire additional bitcoin as well as for general corporate purposes. those shares down 9%. scott? >> all right. thanks. see you in a bit. we're just getting started here. next, your pharma playbook. eli lilly seeing gains. michelle ross is back to break down the rally. find out if there's any more room to run there and where she sees big opportunities elsewhere in the biotech and pharma space. we're live at the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back. eli lilly taking a breather today after a scorching two-day rally. the stock up more than 14% in the past week. that's after hiking full-year guidance on demand for its weight-loss drugs. deutsche bank upgrading that stock to buy calling it a, quote, low beta, high-growth unicorn. joining me with the outlook on the stock and the bio pharma case is michelle ross. welcome back. >> thank you so much for having me. >> what is our big takeaway from glps, whether novo or lili? >> i think novo set the stage. i think it caused a little concern in the midst of what is a tremendous growth market in anticipation of this growth to what is the pricing dynamic on these specific drugs, this class of drug. that was a fair question i think as you bring in more exposure to patients, when you include medicaid coverage and medicare coverage. you are talking about

potentially different price points. however, when lilly came out and discussed their view of the market, what they are seeing currently, i think they really did dispel any major fear that we were going into really a reversion to pushing on price. you actually had dave restrictions, the ceo of lilly, on the show after their earnings. and he defined this as maybe late in the first inning in terms of the growth dynamic. they are not promoting this. there are many different options andoptionalits of how to grow this going forward. >> you are as bullish as you have been on glp1s. >> i believe the glp1 class has multitude of additional areas they can keep moving into. we'll see the card turn on more indications and more potential areas for expansion going forward, yes. >> what about health care as a space by itself? it's sort of -- it's in the lower part of the middle of the pack, if you will, right? >> yeah. >> it hasn't had a bad year.

>> no. >> but when you look at 9.3% year to date versus some of these other sectors, it just doesn't really excite you. is that going to change? >> there's a little bit of an identity crisis in health care broadly. if we are talking about the pharmaceutical complex especially in weeks like we had last week, i think there's an element of the defense, the defensive nature of those companies that really stands out and stand true. and you saw that during a very volatile week, in fact. and the liquidity, the cash flow parameters around those companies. on the flip side you have something near and dear to my he heart which is mid cap biotech. left a -- almost a poster child when we were speaking to the guest about that front. the volatility you expect from the small-cap universe is going to be just that, and then add in the idea of the volatility of clinical trials and catalysts. and that's what mid cap biotech has offered this year. extreme growth potential with large amount of volatility, and then the defensive

characteristics and nature of large-cap pharma have been the bar bell effect we're seeing now. >> where do interest rates come into this conversation if at all when you're talking about enormous sums of money being bet on these drugs eventually coming to market, theoretically you're going to have to borrow money at some point at what was high rates. does that play into this picture? >> absolutely. and i think one of the issues for biotech over the last number of years has been how it is the poster child for that long duration asset. biotech typically is raising money consistently from the equity capital markets, and investors to fund these trials. they are long term. it's not a fast adoption to be able to bring something to market. it can take upward of five to ten years. so when you do talk about the correlation of the xpi, the biotech eft, to rates markets, it is real. an inverse correlation. what we've seen in prior periods

and what many are expecting going forward is when ratsz start being cut you will see a tailweekend to the biotech sector. >> are you an active looker for names? >> always. >> a buyer? >> always. >> give me a name from one of the most recent purchases that you made. >> yeah. so one name that's relatively new i would say in the last couple quarters is based on a large theme that we've been following, and it really is a cornerstone of biotech, is the regulatory environment. and the regulatory environment in biotech is predicated on the fda. when you see major changes or ways that the fda is streamlining the ability to bring a drug to market, you take notice. if there's new people at the helm, if there's new approaches to create pilot programs, and we saw that in the rare disease and orphan disease category. these are diseases that usually affect less than 200,000 patients. the ultra orphan can be less than 20,000, 15,000 or 20,000 patients in the u.s.

the question is how do you bring drugs to the small market. one such company that's doing something in this space is called applied therapeutics, aplt. and they may be a very large beneficiary of some of these changes that are occurring. they are going in front of the fda the next couple ofuarters with two different programs in the rare disease field. and it is incredibly volatile. it will have a lot of binary outcomes here going forward. that's something that has caught our attention for the potential outcome for patients here, as well. >> okay. a name sindex, have you owned it for a while? >> we've owned it for some time. it is one that i absolutely believe is going to see some major inflection this year. on the back of their two late-stage programs. they are also going in front of the fda regarding two different drugs in the oncology space. one is for pediatric aml, acute myeloid leukemia. they are set to get a decision before year end on that front.

and graphic versus host disease. this is a company that we believe has the potential for multibillion dollar peak sales of these two products. again, very importantly the demand and the necessity is there for patients. we're excited about that. >> i'm sorry. you still own maris? >> i do. i do. >> still optimistic about the name? >> still as optimistic as ever. they're going to have additional data in the head and neck cancer space going into the end of the year. again, the platform that merus has, not only do we believe that what they showed in their trial in head and neck cancer was a success, but there was a validation effect. the platform they have in oncology, in bi specifics. very excited about what they're doing there. >> thanks for coming by. >> absolutely. >> see you soon. >> very nice to see you. >> michelle ross joining us here. next, the case for caution. stocks lower after a volatile week as you know on wall street. jimmy chang is back with us. he'll have the latest forecast for the market and where he's seeing serious strength.

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we're struggling to hold on to the momentum from late last week. we'll head toward the close of trading this monday. investors looking to the critical economic data including cpi on wednesday. joining me, post nine jimmy chang of the rockefeller family office. welcome back. nice to see you. you say in the notes today that

the market psychology has been altered. in what sense? >> yeah. i think prior to the recent selloff, there was this expectation of a goldilocks environment with the fed about to cut interest rates, at the same time people expect a soft landing. then we got a number of economic releases that tend to point to a somewhat weaker than expected environment. you saw the citi surprise index falling below zero for two months now. and then on top of that, the trigger for the selloff with the bank of japan, you know, unexpected rate cut along with a weak jobs data. so that led to this so-called unwinding of the yen carry trade. i think while that issue is put to rest for now given that the boj has capitulated and indicated they're not going to cut interest rates given the elevated volatility, i think there's a sense of -- you know, less conviction about the state of the economy. there's more concern that bad

news could potentially be bad news for the market. >> do you think that the upset last week in the market was warranted? was it justified, or was it an overreaction to, you know, let's be honest, the labor market -- i mean, the labor report may have been a touch disappointing. but it's -- kind of a stretch to suggest that it was really weak. >> yeah. >> still 100,000 something jobs. >> right. i do believe they're coming into july, the sentiment was extremely euphoric. and you start to see a little bit of correction leading into month end. you saw the big tech selling off, the rotation to small cap stocks. back then they were doing a trunk trade. since then a number of things have changed. i think the election is now too close to call. actually people talking about a potential blue sweep now with kamala harris gaining a lot of momentum. so i do believe that the market was due for a pullback. this was just a catalyst happening with the boj being,

given this unexpected rate hike. so that was an easy excuses. i think what happened on monday was overdone, especially that 12% drawdown in japan that bounced back very quickly. and that was all tied to the yen's action. >> you point to the debate over mid versus late cycle. i don't know if you heard the conversation we had at the top of our program with one of our guests making the argument that all cycles come to an end. and this one's probably getting close to the point that it is. certainly implying we're more late cycle than some would like to believe. >> that's the big question, and there's no conclusive data at this point. very mixed data. if you believe that we're in the mid cycle, meaning several more years of expansion, every pullback is to be bought. in that context earnings will continue to grow. you're still in the middle of a bull market. if you're more cautious that we're perhaps close to the beginning of that late cycle or in the late cycle, then we may be, the pullback may be part of

a topping process in which case you want to get incrementally more cautious. and again, at this point it's hard to say. we do have additional stimulus coming into the economy. if you talk about the employee retention tax credit, the irs just announced on friday they're resuming payment of that very strong, very powerful stimulus. and that's coming to the rescue. beyond that we also have another $300 billion in the overnight reverse repo that will get shifted into the market between now and year end. so those will keep the markets somewhat elevated. but beyond that, i think it gets really tricky after the general election. >> your positioning perspective sounds to me to be cautious. i mean, income oriented investments are better than equities. you make the argument. defensive parts of the market are better than perceived offensive parts of the market. mag-seven stocks are likely to go sideways.

>> indeed. that stems from the valuation differences. if you look at interest rates, we have normalized to the pre-financial cites is levels, and the fed is about to start cutting interest rates. that makes fixed income relatively more attractive. equities on the index level look pretty expensive on a valuation basis. part of that is due to mag seven. i do believe that mag seven is likely to mark time for a while, to let the earnings catch up to valuation. and at the same time, the other part, the rest of the market looks more interesting. and indeed some of these dividend paying stocks, telecom equipment stocks, foreign exchange, you get pe below ten times. you get 5%, 6% yield. that combination is pretty attractive in a normal market. >> what kind of volatility do you think we're going to have between now and the election? was last week a -- a warmup act for what you could have based on polling as we get closer to election day? you referenced some of the more recent polls which suggest a much tighter race if not a

different potential outcome than some were gaming out not a month ago. >> yeah. i do believe volatility will be elevated relative to where we have been in the first half. however, i doubt that will go to 65 intraday. >> that was something. >> something between 20 and 30 is likely. >> let me ask you some ago a week ago morning, okay, markets are going haywire, there's a panic attack over just about every -- carry trade unwind. we're worried about thonomy. what was happening in -- in -- on the front lines where you were? were you thinking, okay, this could be something more substantial than maybe we were prepared for? what was the note to clients? put me inside the room. >> yeah. so our stance was that as long-term investors we're not going to look at the kneejerk reactions in the markets, certain catalysts. our view has been that we're

perhaps getting late in the business cycle, we favor fixed income, equities looked more elevated on the valuation side. so it wasn't a surprise that we have a pullback. in fact, our message was try not to catch a falling knife. individually as a portfolio manager on the equity side, that's the time you look for opportunities. >> jimmy, we'll talk to you soon. tha thanks for being here. next, we are tracking the biggest close. pippa stevens has that. one financial player is banking on another taking a stake in sending shares soaring. the bank stock to watch coming up next.

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from 15 from the closing bell on this monday. let's get back to pippa stevens. >> key corp. is the top performer in the s&p 500, shares with the best day since november, 2020, after bank of nova scotia took a 14.9% stake worth $2.8 billion in the

regional bank. key corp. ceo chris gorman telling us it gives the bank strategic latitude to look at and restructure its balance sheet. shares of monday.com having their strongest day wi hitting 52-week high after posting better than expected second quarter results. needham and piper sandler boosting price targets after the report. those shares up 12%. scott? >> appreciate that. thank you. pippa stevens. ahead, jetblue shares are pacing for their worst day ever. we'll break down what's driving the stock lower today. we're back on the bell right after this.

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react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley we're in the closing bell market zone. mike santoli to break down the crucial moments this. trading day. jetblue facing its worst day ever, that stock is. phil will give us the details why. and more on disney's theme park expand. we'll begin with you. it's clear we're not going to go in heavy until we get numbers. whether it's retail or inflation or all the above. >> it's going to take time and data to rebuild any conviction that we are on firm ground in terms of where the economy's headed. obviously nobody's saying soft

landing is off the table, but at the july high, you pretty much had 100% chance. pretty much priced into the consensus. so today's activity, it's definitely a little bit on the softer side. kind of a hangover from the -- the rebound rally last week. you have a lot more stocks down than up. you have a lot more 52-week lows than highs. but it's low intensity. every day that passes when you don't see that kind of price insensitive mechanized selling or anything like that that says there's stress in the system, i think you're kind of still in normal pullback zone where you need a little bit of reassurance about the macro, but it's not something where we're just running straight away from the credit markets. they keep taking on more new corporate debt, perfectly fine, digesting things in a normal way. we have the vix 21 again as oil goes higherment that would be flinching ahead of potential geopolitical -- >> i think we are readying ourselves for the possibility of some geopolitical headlines. really any time.

>> exactly. >> it's again, yet another issue in the face of the bulls to try and -- >> an excuse to hang back. >> what do you make of the chip action today? i find interesting -- and not just nvidia. amd, micron hanging in pretty well. >> there's a little return to what did win in the first half of the year going on in the markets here. now they hit a 25% retrench. in the sector. so there's plenty of room where it has to really rebuild and prove that it's more than just a reflex bounce here. it's -- i think it's positive. i think what's interesting is the doubts about whether the cloud platforms and the other investors in a.i. composite are going to get payback. it returns people to all we know is they're going to be buying a lot of stuff and building for a while. it seems like that's -- the sell side trying to push that line a little bit. >> phil, give us the details here on jetblue. as we said, the stock's pacing for its worst day ever. and as we learned last week, feels like travel stocks in

general are guilty until proven innocent. >> well, and this is a specific issue with jetblue. they have been making moves in order to defer costs in terms of plane deliveries, capex expenses. they need to conserve as much cash as possible and raise cash. that's what they've done today. when you look at the debt offerings today, $3.21 billion in debt that they are going to be raising through three different offerings, including a convertible note. now most of this will be backed by the company's loyalty program. but it comes down to this -- when you look at shares of jetblue and, yes, they are on track for their worst day ever, what you're looking at is a company here that has had their credit ratians cut by moody's and s&p, and they're expected to burn through about $2 billion in cash this year. so joannaga garretty and her te are moving to cut costs and build up as much cash cushion as

possible. >> under $5 stock. something to look at there. phil, thank you. that's our phil lebeau following outblue and what could be the worst day ever for that stock. disney, julia boorstin, what's going on here, theme park enthusiasts excited today. >> remember, just last week disney reported a slowdown at its theme parks as part of its quarterly report. at this past weekend's d23 fan event, disney detailed its $60 billion ten-year plan to make parks and cruises a key growth driver for the long term. now the magic kingdom is expanding with a new villain's land and a frontier land upgrade, while california adventure is building two new attractions. disney just announced four new cruise ships in addition to four in the works and five already at sea. morgan stanley rating the stock overweight, flagging the experiences division's history of high and rising return on invested capital. building on the success of this summer's franchises, films -- franchise films of the seven movies that disney showcased at

d23, five were sequels including sequels to "toy story" and to "frozen." as disney works to diversify away from the struggling linear tv business, we're seeing its bet on epic games with more details coming out on its plan to integrate characters into "fortnite" about some new launches as early as this week, scott. >> thank you. two-minute warning. julia, thanks for setting us up for that. i'm looking at yields, they're down obviously across the board today, other than at the very, very, very short end of the curve. are we in a situation where, you know, falling yields reviewed as negative. >> if they're falling quickly, get to the lows of 37 for the ten year, probably so. probably a beneficial effect of the lower expectation inflation numbers. the three-year expectations coming into line. so the market's positioned for benign inflation data.

i definitely don't think you want to root for a huge rally in bonds. the good news part of that is, you know, in the last several months bonds are kind of acting as the proper offset to equity risk the way that they do on the -- in the textbooks. so you know, if you have a little more turbulence in equities presumably bonds are going to hold up or appreciate here. i don't think it's going to make up for further correction if we go back toward the lows, only a few percent down from here from last monday. but it is something that i think will act as a buffer in the overall markets. >> tech number one today, it's nvidia and apple-led story there. utilities, so as you said, a touch defensive. it's energy, in its own way defensive because of concerns of geopolitical -- >> defensive in quality and consumer cyclicals. disney not getting a bid on that news. shows if you do have a strong view of the economy, it's strong and it's going to reaccelerate, so much looks cheap. nobody can make that leap now.

we're going to hear from home depot and walmart to get a better sense. >> all right. you see the nasdaq looks like it's going to eke out a gain here. that will do it for us. [ bell ] [ cheers ] >> the silver medalist doing the honors today. good to have them here. congratulations. see you tomorrow. "closing bell," zom etr y doing the honors at the nasdaq. will stocks trading in a tight range add retail earnings and inflation data with most s&p 500 sectors lower. small caps pulling back, as well. looks like the s&p is almost perfectly flat here. we'll see where it settles. that's the scorecard on wall street. the action's just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm morgan brennan. coming up, major price target hike for $800 billion pharma giant eli lilly. we will talk to the analyst who just upgraded the name t