of the fed in september versus what the market's expecting. >> they are withholding any guarantees at this point. i think we'll see if that changes with these numbers. >> of course we are going to get jackson hole and the powell address next week, so one more thing to add to the list here. well, mike, thank you. i will see you tomorrow. mike santoli, it was a mixed day of trading today burks t that's going to do it for us heret overtime. "fast money" begins now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." consumer countdown, the major retailers start to report this week, whether results show the consumer is unbreakable or starting to lose real steam, we'll go inside the numbers. plus, mining for profits, tgs not just the price of gold that's ripping to record highs, the miners are shining bright too. who's the best of the bunch? and later inside the turbulence at jetblue, nailing the traders down on home depot ahead of earnings and the chart master is here to tell us why it's time to sell cisco.

i'm melissa lee. on the desk, kim seymour, guy ad adami. economic data on producer and end user price inflation as well as retail sales, not to mention earnings from home depot and wall walmart all on the calendar this week. what kind of picture will they paint for spending. discretionary stocks have been struggling all year. it is the only s&p sector down so far in 2024. leading the losses, lululemon, which has been more than cut in half since january. ulta, etsy, nike, bed bath and body works. >> oh, man, things we care a lot about. >> a bankrupt retailer is the one that exists. >> they lost a third of their value, that's the bottom line. can this week's reports help the group rebound? guy, what do you think? >> i don't know, i don't think so. and to me it's more about the commentary, and the commentary we've heard from retailers for

the last couple of quarters is things are slowing down. the consumer's being more rational in terms of spending and it's manifesting in a number of different ways. you mentioned those five or six stocks. lulu lululemon, then you start connecting the dots and say, wait a second, obviously discretionary is going by the wayside and the retailers that win are the retailers that have been winning all along. walmart wins, costco wins and maybe throw a tjx. after that it's completely hit or miss. i want to hear from home depot. i think they were down 11% year-over-year, last quarter which suggests margins should be better. the bogey for me for margins is about 14.1% on the operating side. short of that, i think the stock counties to sell off. >> yeah, you know, it's interesting, walmart is a consumer stample. if you think ability some of the pressures that we're seeing on the housing market despite mortgage rates coming in.

i think that -- i don't mean a shoe to drop. if we had weakness in the stock market, then you see a negative wealth effect. >> both stocks are no longer bullet proof in consumer discretionary. ulta, karen's ulta, i'm sure she's got a view, and by the way, has probably traded it perfectly. that's what karen did. if you think about these consumer stories where it's such a strong brand. they're in a space where you certainly in health and beauty, you've had really strong dynamics. athleisure you've many strong dynamics. you've had macro that's deteriorating in sub sectors that have gotten a little crowded, a little tired, and then you have companies that i just think are not going to hold the margins. promotion, what we've seen, whether we heard this from target, whether we're going to hear it from walmart. i think it's a margin story and a consumer story. >> the characterization of those stocks being bullet proof, has that really been since the last recession?

i mean, are we talking about the period where we have had 0% rates and therefore things were good. so they were seen as sort of bullet proof? >> if you look at where discretionary spends and you're not in the ultrahigh luxury, you certainly saw a whole lot in athleisure and in health and beauty. and in those two brands, companies that were doing fantastic things, not only in terms of with their brand, they were innovating, they were out there on digital, out there on dtc. i just think that's not the story right now. we've seen it in bits and pieces in the restaurant space and fast ca casual. while the market is a discounting mechanism, we've seen a lot of the consumer diskregs nar names. >> you think if walmart does well, maybe that is a bad sign for the overall economy for the consumer because they might be doing well off the back of consumer woes? >> right, well, talk about bullet proof ones, i think

walmart should be in the bullet proof space because they have done a great job. if you go back to, remember, the inventory apocalypse for from a up canouple of years, they've bn able to right the ship. walmart does well. they've taken shares from others. i believe that's likely. i also want to see how does walmart do well. we know the grocery business is really good, but we want to see the higher margin business, the general merchandise business, if that does well, i actually think that bodes well for target, which i don't own to see little bit of life in the consumer. i do think, though, that we know that may and january were bad. i really want to hear how july is. we're right in the middle of back to school, i want to hear how that is, but some of these names, i mean, there has been so much pressure on the stocks of consumer, you know, spending. if you look at a name like lulu, which i now own, higher than here, but not a lot higher than here, but i think, you know,

it's trading under 17ish times earnings for a company with a great balance sheet, i think that a lot of really mediocre news is priced into that. ulta, which has been not a great one at all, thanks, tim, for saying it traded well. ky tell you this one definitely not because i'm long, but this one now is under 13 times earnings. i didn't like what we saw from elf last week but i don't know, i feel like if you wanted to get out before things got bad in retail, i think it's a bit late, certainly for the ones that have a good balance sheet and can survive. >> too early to get in on some of them, some of the dogs that we've been talking about? >> if you're really concerned about the consumer right now, i would say it is too early. this brings me back to the change in basically what we're seeing in consumer and guy's been calling for the unemployment rate since it was 3.3 to get up over 4, and it's kind of happening quickly. i go back to 2018, and i know

the fed was raising interest rates back then. if you think of some of the concerns at the time, we had an impending government shutdown. we had trade tensions with china. we had global growth scares. a lot of things that we could throw into what's going on right now, when you think of some of the uncertainty and the stock market got nailed. it was down how much, guy, in that fourth quarter? >> 19.9%. >> and the fed had to pivot to get things back going again. they got a lot easier. again, i find this period close to that, but yet the selloff that we had in the stock market just didn't seem like enough. we had one day where people were calling for a surprise rate cut just to get things back on track. that's how it really took. the s&p is flat week over week. the yield on the ten-year is flat in that same period too. >> if you believe that it was deleveraging behind last week's selloff, it wasn't really a growth scare. >> i agree with that. >> right? and so what's changed? >> >> deleveraging triggered by a growth scare. i think a lot of this was very

technical. there's no question that one of the linchpins that was pulled out was at least a sense that the labor market of which the fed is targeting more than inflakes. le -- inflation. let's be clear. it's something that's weakening fast. bringing it back to companies that -- william sonoma is a company we talk about all the time. it's a case where this is a company that's not expensive. it's up 40% this year after having a great run last year. this is a case where, again, discretionary spend as it related to the home, and nesting and trends that were very much covid trends, i think for some of these companies, it's about as good as it's ever going to get, and on margin it's about as good as it's ever going to get. that's my focus here. some of these names have not turned. doesn't make them bad companies. it just means i don't think they should trade here. >> tim's right, but the growth scare that's out there that hasn't happened yet that i think the market is now saying there's

an inevitability to this, which i think is going to stair step to 4.8% by the end of the year, which the market won't like. one would think dollar stores, for example, they're not, i mean, look at dollar gen, dollar tree do not trade well at all. costco sold off, but walmart we've talked about now for years. on the other side of the equation, tjx. if you're middled right now, you're in no man's land. that includes target who i think is struggling. >> does that tell you that it is the story of a barbell approach in terms of the consumer, or does that tell you that is the way the stock market perceives the consumer at this point? >> well, tell me what the barbell is. i'm a little bit confused. is it -- >> high end versus low end, but high end has been showing a lot of cracks but very highest end as well. >> that part of the barbell definitely hasn't really worked. i do think that for that really lower end consumer, that's the

one who gets most hurt by inflation, right? any hike to prices is a really -- you know, a ding to their disposable income. for the higher end consumer or even the middle consumer they're not going to get hurt as much. the dollar store stuff sort of makes sense to me. i just think there is a lot of bad news surrounding the consumer, the economy is really not bad, but i do think that there is more pessimism in this space. there's a lot of ones that are doing -- that are really doing well. the interesting article in the journal this weekend about fall fashion, who's doing well, abercrombie and gap. and they thinks we haven't considered before that are still i think attractive here. and i think the market's just throwing out every baby with the bath water or the bath and body water, whatever you call it. that one i don't know in particular, but staying long some retail. including names like tjx. >> right. our next guest says he likes

discretionary and energy names heading into this week's inflation reports but he's cautious on the broader markets as we head into september. phil blancato joins us to break down why he thinks volatility could persist into the fall. nice to see you. >> seasonality, september's usually not great. >> the starting point of the market is always history. you all laid town all the reasons why the labor market is weakening. it's not as terrible as the headlines make it out to be. you had 400,000 people come back to the labor market. the reality is it's harder to find a job now. seasonality going back to the dw beginning of this thing has had a tremendous impact. the other market that's looking for a reason to sell off, whether it's the election, the emotions around it, bhaifl finance or more importantly a relatively decent earnings season, i'll call it that way because if you strip out the mag 7, the other ones did okay. there's only 22 stocks beating the s&p on a year-to-date basis after the mag 7. it tells you we've got this

fragile market, that if you're not careful, the slightest change, slightest narrative, i'm not convinced if it cuts in september. >> you don't think the fed cuts at all in september? >> i'm not convinced. the labor market hasn't weakened enough to make them take notice. they have not met their price point. their trend is their friend. if you look at the pmi data, what we're going to get on cpi, they're softer, but they're not there yet, and i think they're -- somehow we've completely forgotten this narrative that they don't like to cut in front of an election, and there's some degree of truth to that. going further, i don't believe they've met their narrative. if their narrative truly is below trend inflation, they're not there yet. look at the consumer spending data, the people who make less than $100,000 a year has been smarter about where they're spending data. so it tells me that the reason why like amazon is the stock right now, the smarter consumer is coming to light, and if we

get even a modest hint that cpi is not as weak as it's intended to be, i think the comments echo where i'm coming from. by the way, whpsat happens to ts market if they don't cut in september? >> what do you think will happen. the notion is the fed is going to cut in september because it's got a dual mandate. it highlights the risk to the other side of the dual mandate in the last press conference. that is employment. they have to move in order to preserve the jobs market at this point. you don't think that happens. what is the impact then? >> the impact is they don't cut in september and we get a significant selloff. we have a scenario, the market's been waiting with bated breath for this opportunity, small caps, a sector i like, or these other areas of the market besides the mag 7 that are anxiously waiting for the fed to reduce interest rates. and you have this scenario where if it doesn't happen, it will be a blood bath, not to mention seasonality. >> phil mentioned consumer reinvolving credit, that's the lar largest decrease since the

summer of '21. depending on where you look, it's either a great thing or a bad thing. with that saided, i agree on th fed. they've backed themselves into a corner in terms of september. if they didn't move, i'm not quite sure to your point how the market would react to that. >> what they're going to need is a weaker job number. if you look at truckers, we can't find enough people, if you look at people in restaurants, that sign that says i need help has really come down. when 400 people come into the labor force and pushes the participation rate up, and suddenly you look at 25 to 50-year-olds which is the highest participation rate of our lifetime, time i dout. certainly you're in that target range, but i'd argue because of folks being dragged back in because of three, four years of higher inflation. it needs sustained real data, i.e. wages. wages are still higher than inflation.

i'd argue so much of the wall street argument. i think this battle of inflation, more important the wages has been the greatest economic impact we've had in dec decades. they finally got -- the guy who makes 50 grand a year washing dishes in new york city probably makes 55 now. that change will be profound for the strength of the u.s. consumer. i don't think we're willing to take credence do that. >> it sounds like you've got tactical sequencing of the marketing. if your call is there's no cut in september that actually -- and you've kind of laid that over seasonal historic volatility, sounds like you're expecting a nasty september. how are you trading that, for, again, a consumer. ultimately no cut to me is what we want. just because you want to say none of us agree with you, none of us agree with you, but ultimately -- and we may. >> i don't mean -- forgive me. >> i don't either. it's an interesting call. actually, for the market, we'd love to believe that the fed has an economy that's strong enough

just to see the labor force come down. that is the perfect, perfect, landing. >> isn't that the definition of a soft landing? >> we think so. how are you playing this? you clearly seem to be positioning scooping up some great companies you like. you think the consumer is strong. or you say i'm sitting out september and you're jumping in. >> number one trade, i am beckinb begging, pleading. we have gone exceptionally long duration. we love the bond market. we are north of ten years in duration, and significantly taking up not only the yield play, but i want back what i lost in 2016. that's the first trade. the second trade is, you've got to start selling some of those mag 7 socks. the greatest appreciation in those names is going to cause vo volatility. >> except for amazon. >> of all those stocks which is the greater consumer play. i'd argue it's discretionary

play. where is that money going to be spent, it's going to spent on amazon. not only are the profits down over 7%. you're talking about a company by early next year they're going to spin off their cloud computing. that company is tremendous, spotify, netflix, so on. you'll get shares in that company. for now on a consumer that's more knew froouugal play, that' your opportunity. >> aws relative to microsoft azure and google cloud had great numbers, when you think about that relative basis. let me ask you this, though. you mentioned this before about the mag 7 earnings versus the rest here. so i think in q2, 7.5% growth for the 493, 35% for the mag 7. but that's down from 50 some percent. >> 75. >> at some point. is that an poimportant equationo you? do you expect the other 493 to play a little catchup? >> i have to as a money manager get accustomed to large cap tech stocks being defensive. i've never been able to say that in my career. so they are.

>> when they trade like large cap tech, they're going to have to give some back. these companies are priced so far to perfection. you have a scenario of 1 is sort of the mentality, i've made so much money, i'm going to sell it before i get punished like i did in the tesla. more importantly, i've made all this money and now because i'm seeing a correction, you see a flood to the exits and that's what happened last week. we saw this flood at the exits. nvidia is going to trade at 130 at some point because of the eup euphoria. for today's math, that earnings correction tells me the stocks are probably trading at a range that starts to make some sense, better blow 100. as these earnings recede, and it's because we do have a slowing of the u.s. economy, certainly a slowing of the global economy, nothing spectacular at all, that's got to come in from a price pressure stand point, and we saw a little of that in microsoft, some of the data around who's buying their product, so it's a capitulation for now. long-term, they are defensive.

they are the leaders of the economic growth globally. in the short-term there's been too much money made to think it's going to be perpetually up. that's my concern. sell it before you take a punishment there. or at least a portion of it. >> phil, thanks for coming by. maybe you'll come back. maybe the day of the next fed decision. karen, what do you think? a couple of provocative forecasts here. >> i love that. >> no rate cut in september, aws gets spun off. >> well -- i don't think that happens. i thin the throw away line is what difference would it make if we had cut 25 basis points. so i feel like he did back himself in a corner, and he doesn't think 25 basis points is really changing anything, so might as well give it is what i think. but i love the nonconsensus call, and keep backing it up with interesting data. >> think of the tumult on wall

street if he did not move. think of the economists that tripped all over themselves to move to 50 basis point. >> he backtracked that. >> so quickly. on a jobless claims number. >> we should get him in here, talk about it. >> have a kumbaya. >> sit around, talk about it. >> he wasn't the only one. there was a parade of people calling for whatever, and i think, listen, to phil's point, the numbers suggest that they should sort of status quo to the end of the year for a myriad of different reasons. nothing is really breaking. nothing is that bad in my opinion to necessitate a rate cut. >> well, you know, it's interesting, and i think you made this point last week. you have two-year that's gone from 5%, and it was as low as 3.8% last week. maybe the bond market has done a little pbit of what the fed wanted to do anyway. >> the bottom line is the message is there are great companies to buy, if you're thinking out six, nine, 12

months, some of the consumer dynamics here are fine, but ultimately that's really where there's plenty of opportunity being set up here. >> coming up, glistening gold, the precious metals settling above the 2,500 mark for the first time ever and bringing mining stocks along for the ride. plus, a big move -- top spot on the s&p 500 today, what is hi tt rge. what it means for the rest of the regionals when "fast money" returns back in two. with the women's tennis association to remove boundaries... ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic?

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one unlimited line and get one free for a year. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back to "fast money." gold, silver, and copper all jumping to kick off the week, gold settling above the 2,500 mark for the first time ever. the move helping out the minors. bare gold surging 9% with eagle, pan am silver, newmont also seeing ganins. a big day for the clam trade, of course. >> eagle minds in the a. >> right. >> listen, the gold miners sold off from the middle of july until recently on the back of that gold selloff, which sort of made sense, because i think people said you know what, we're not going to get smoked again. now i think there's a realization, wait a second, t environment that we find

ourselves is conducive, it's still conducive to gold, and these miners are underperforming on a relative basis. the gold trade is going to continue to work on my opinion and the miners are still cheap. >> we had a gold earnings today, and gold has been an underperformer relative to peer. it's not just throw a dart in the sector. >> in fact, newmont, which is the heaviest weighting in the gold miners etf is a big laggard and a big ball and chain. some of the numbers we got from a barrack today, they beat -- they had a great guide, they certainly talked about free cash flow. those are great. we had some of these numbers already out there. but again, free cash flow beats not only in terms of what's going on in terms of the metal and where they are spending and not spending money. that to me historically has been part of the story around gold miners. during the early part of this rally, gold miners are not just a laggard, a bad laggard on historically a two and a half times beta to the underlying

metal. they don't have in an inflationary environment enough operational leverage to make up for the higher cost space. we've gotten to a place where people have been able to do not only the analysis on that but the free cash flow is a reason to buy. there were gold names that were down today. that's why it's a fascinating time. you do have to own the miner, not just the metal. >> you don't want copper do you. if you're a believer that there's a growth scare, and that unemployment will go higher, you don't want to own copper, do you? >> pull up a copper chart real quick. what you're talking about has been priced in, in my opinion over the last three and a half, four months. that's a pretty steep decline. the bull case for copper into that move higher is not necessarily this global growth acceleration. it was a supply and demand imbalances, which by the way have not gone away. i think the move you've seen in my opinion, this is on growth. this isn't on the supply, demand imbalances. >> i read something earlier this morning, i think it was in bloomberg that u.s. oil refiners are slowing down right now. there's fears of glut next year.

this obviously has to do with global growth concerns. you just mentioned copper. those are two things that don't act well. and if they're acting well, you have a better confidence in the global economy. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. a key investment, a northern neighborhood scooping up keybanc helping shares to a big gain today. the move in the stock and how the rest of the regionals are faring. plus, trimming china. foreign investors pulling a record amount of money out of the country has worries as its economy deepens. everything you need to know about the china trade next, you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market tesi in times square. we're back right after this. ris, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting

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♪♪ ♪♪ : welcome back to "fast money." ohio key corp. surging after the regional bank announced an investment from canada's scotiabank. they will receive an injection of $2.8 billion in exchange for a 14.9% stake in the company. even with the gains the kre regional bank et if, was down today flat for the year, after that selloff, the growth scare deleveraging, whatever you want to call it selloff, it never regained those levels preselloff. karen, how are you feeling about regionals right now?

>> i'd rather be in the big money center banks, although, i did think this deal was interesting. i could see why keycorp wanted to do it. bank of nova scotia, their shareholders didn't seem to be happy almost taking out the entire amount of the deal, although we got to -- it was down that much in canadian dollars, i know u.s. dollar purchase was more. i think it's sort of an interesting deal for both of them, actually, and because bank of nova scotia now can be from canada to the u.s. to mexico. i get that people didn't like it. should give it a little more time. >> look at the kre at the beginning of august has not traded well at all. i think this will continue. it's not unlike what we have seen in the iwm, which obviously had that huge sort of relief rally, and it's given the entire thing back. the two go hand in hand. i believe the unemployment rate is going higher. i believe the consumer is 70%ish of the economy.

if that is, in fact, the case, almost by definition, i think these banks are going to have difficulty here. >> i think it's an interesting deal. there's some sense that the combined banks, also the repositioning of the securities portfolio is then going to put that in position to somehow play offense, as if this isn't -- i don't think this is necessarily a strategic. it's obviously strategic because they evaluated the option, but it senses to me that there's more going on. at one point the regionals were -- that was part of the investment when you were investing in regional banks. there wasconsolidation. >> guy's point is a major one. even though we've gotten signs of a consumer slowdown, the money center banks have acted particularly well. when rates were going higher, it was bad for those mark-to-market portfolios, treasury securities now that rates are expected to go lower. it doesn't matter, they're still at all-time highs. to me, i do think it's interesting that you're seeing strategic sort of deals at this stage of the game. generally you don't see it when markets are very near highs. you probably see it when things

are getting worse. coming up, investors are pulling record amounts of money out of china. we'll discuss the biggest issues facing the country's flagship stocks with the experts. it is time to ditch cisco, the technical tale of why now is the time to sell the legacy tech stock right after this. missed a most of fast, catch us anytime on the go, follow the "fast money" podcast, we're back right after this. quickly and securely. that's because cdw architects are building infrastructures with unified data storage from netapp. with the flexibility to run workloads across any environment, providers experience less downtime, giving them more time with patients. make amazing happen. netapp and cdw.

welcome back to "fast money," stocks muted to kick off the week as investors weigh more inflation data and retail earnings, dow falling 140 points, the s&p unchanged and the nasdaq climbing nearly a quarter of a percent. shares dropping more than 20% today. the airline announcing plans to sell $400 million a five-year convertible senior notes. quite a discussion on the call earlier behind this move. karen, what's your theory here? >> well, i think it's going to be pretty expensive for them to do it. they must feel they have to do it. i think that that's a lot of what was weighing on the stock, if you were going to buy that convert, you're going to be wanting to short the stock against it. i don't know what kind of -- i

heard talk about 10%. i think this reaction is huge, so it's kind of interesting. they really do need to -- they do need to get this done, their 26 traded up, as you'd think they would. if i were a real speculator at some point in here, i would probably buy some jetblue calls. >> all right, foreign investors taking their money out of china, from april to june there was a drop of more than $15 billion in direct investments on china's balance sheet, so is it time to get out of china? let's bring in david reed l of reed l research group. is this number surprising to you? >> not really. i think a lot of our clients certainly have been looking at other growth opportunities around the world. if you think about the china story as it's been for so long, it's been urbanization, rise of the middle class, expanding consumer, so on and so forth, but unfortunately in the last few years, we've been reminded bay shing's heavy hand on the tech companies, the changing demographics, the inability to

put together a stimulus package that works. i think emerging market investors are realizing that the long-term for china may not look so bright. >> david, i know you've also spent a lot of time focussed and investing in india. there's no question that that is the demographic story that people would want, and there's certainly a growth story. it is priced that way, and you know, china is very cheap here, and i see that you actually like tencent and baba. how do you weigh that? i know you're not a trader and i know you care deeply about fundamentals to do that work. they both kind of have things that make them attractive here. >> the market is expensive. it always has been. they've got a strong domestic investment market like they do in chile, of course, and you and i have talked about this in the past. you know, they like to buy their domestic stock. there's a lot of demand for indian stocks both domestic and foreign. china's stocks are cheaper and i think for a reason. people have been reminded, you know, china saw its population drop two years ago and drop

again the next year. they are facing a demographic crisis that other countries around the world simply aren't, so that -- facing a demographic crisis really takes away one of the pillars of why you invest in emerging markets, right? you're looking for that good long-term tailwind story, and i think in india, people are willing to pay a little more for it because they see the government changing and evolving, the tax structure evolving and improving and the demographics are there to back it up. >> david, for ten years we've been talking about china as this engine for growth, that gdp print was obviously very disappointing. there's been a lot of stimulus over there. we've b obvobviously had a lot reshoring or the focus on not being so dependent on china. when you think about that demographic issue you're talking about, supposedly in a few decades, they're going to have under a billion people. how does china remain this engine of growth and who would actually pick up the baton. is it india? >> you know, i think a lot of things that happened around covid and since then have reminded people about the

benefits of having closer supply chains, the benefits of having manufacturing near your markets, avoiding things like long shipping lanes and things like that. and i think that china never really recovered from people diversifying away from china during covid and thereafter. so i think india has some benefits. of course it still has many of those challenges of transportation and so on and so forth, but demographics really takes the -- takes the play here and junderbpins a good long-ter story from india. >> shorter term, it sounds like you like technology in china. that could actually be a bright spot. even just think that apple needs an ai partner, that should lift whoever they choose to partner with in terms of providing that ai aspect, you know, product to them. >> yeah, that's exactly right. i mean, as china stops becoming the -- sort of the large factory

thousands of workers kind of tencent sort of manufacturing power house for the rest of the world, they need to build smarter, they need to employ more computer technology and more high end manufacturing and so on and so forth, that all takes the tech brains of baidu and alibaba and tencent and all these other tech companies we've gotten to know over recent years. so i think the benefits to them are partially driven by the demographics, and also, i think you've just got a near-term trade here, if we get bad numbers on thursday, i think that will remind people that beijing could still have some stimulus in order to achieve their 2024 goals. i worry about 2025 and 2026 as the market looks back at this and says, you know what, demographics are shrinking, it may be time to take a different look. >> all right, david, great to speak with you. thank you. david reidle. eight years ago trade $80 a share.

they do six times the amount of revenue and they have a better balance sheet. you could say it was way too expensive then, that's true, but it's way too cheap now. you have this little quasi stealth rally into baa baa. i think you stay long the name. >> the way david talks about china it makes you think twice about u.s. companies and their presence in china and what that is worth over the next few years. if 2024 is going to be the year where things are dicey because people are realizing that things are moved away in terms of supply chain, 2025, 2026, their demographic problems, that's a few years of issues that china's got to tackle, karen. >> so are you thinking about names like a starbucks that has a big kind of presence and, yes, yes. >> yes. >> no, i mean, clearly it's been a problem, but i think that starbucks, for one, i don't think is -- i think is too expensive. i think that they do have problems that others do as well in the area, but for me, they're buying a lot of other issues with starbucks, but i do think

that we still haven't seen the bottom. it's not -- what is it always darkest before the time that it's the next darkest right after -- that's where i think we are. >> the backdrop for andy here is also pretty interesting. i think if anything the fed dynamics should be leading to a weaker dollar. that's a trade people have been offsides on for a while. e india falling rate environment means less inflation, great for india. ici bank is the second large position in the etf, and it's a case of where this is the jpmorgan of japan, excuse me, of india, and it actually trades as if it's very defensive during these big market dislocation days. >> coming up, selling cisco, no, it's not the latest california real estate show. he said the tech stock isn't acting too well, and he's brought the charts to back it up. that's next. and home depot still trying to fix up its rough year with results due out before the bell tomorrow. shares keep getting drilled. home improvement and hop in store for the stk.oc

we'll debate that when "fast money" returns.

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low. the chart master thinks there's more downside to come. let's bring in carter braxton werth for a look at the technicals. hey, carter. >> hi there, before we look at the charts, obviously we know this at one point was the gre greatest of all, in 2000. in 1999 their annual report had one sentence, capture the momentum. it was the all-time high. the stock is down some 70% from its peak of $82 adjusted for inflation here trading at $45. let's go to the charts, four identical charts and take a look. so this goes back about ten years, and we have a steady uptrend, but what you have here is a churning circumstance, and the question is does it break to the downside out of this formation. second of four charts, how precise have these lines been? well, like a pinball machine, the stock has touched a lower bend over and over, and the converging upper bend to the

penny, to the penny bs , to the penny. third of four charts. so if we keep that lower bend, i've annotated there with a down arrow, and that's because of how poor it acts relative to its sector and to the market, poor relative strength is one of the greatest factors in the investing. it's a robust factor, and final chart, we keep the same lines but we depict the head and shoulders top. it's what a reversal formation is. bearish correlation, poor relative strength to the market, to its sector and the last three quarter it has acted poorly in response to earnings. my hunch is you'll get more of the same this time around. >> carter braxton werth of werth charting. what's your guess on earnings. >> negative eps growth year-over-year, flat revenue growth. people say valuation is compelling. it's cheap for a reason and since this time last year, you've had a series of lower highs and lower lows that have not been broken. i'm sort of with carter on this

one. >> what are the trends on networking equipment and the solutions there and the order trends. they have guided for 3.5% revenue growth in '25. i think if you get some sense that any of that's in jeopjeopa i think carter's talk about breaking below that long-term trend line are things you should be worried about. i own it, don't love it. this is one of these mega cap. it's hard to see where their business has a sexy component, other than they do have a software and security component to it. >> remember when this was the end all, be all stock to watch, bell bellwether. >> what are some of the worst stocks that act in the market 25 years after they were some of the biggest ones, and again, people just can't see that this generative ai trade will slow down at some point, and we could be in the third inning of this. there's going to be peaks and troughs, and we're just coming off a peak right now. who knows how far it will go. we know that these bubbles overshoot to the upside, which feels like they did over the last few months but they also do to the downside. coming up home depot results

on deck. and can a strong report help rebuild this stock's performance. we'll debate that. here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam, jim is catching with >>metindlis.levela-cff > anme, more "fast money" in two.

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welcome back to "fast money." home depot on board to reports resulting tomorrow, trying to climb back from a steep selloff in the spring. what should we expect out of the numbers tomorrow? karen, it seems like wall street is muted in terms of their exami expectations. july was terrible in terms of weather for home depot as well as lowes for that matter. >> yeah, i own home depot and lowes. i've not been optimistic to be honest. i think there's been excitement about mortgage rates coming down. i don't think it's down enough to really stimulate the kind of transactions that would really get a home depot and lowes going. and neither's cheap. lowes is cheaper, but neither is actually cheap, so it's kind of a -- i'm not wildly optimistic at all. >> no, and i think the street knows this, and i think as the

expectations into this print are that it could be noisy, et ceteras, that i think guy mentioned earlier in the show, those comps are going to be negative, minus 3.3, 3.4. i do think it is the ultimate discretionary stock. i think dan said something about that as well. i think the spend there is something that does not have to happen for a lot of folks. they can pull back on that. >> you're not going to buy a new drill set if you don't have to. >> if anybody would, it would be dan. >> no, we've talked -- we've talked about this shift from goods to services, right? and so people got kind of joef l overloaded during the pandemic. you're pushing those sorts of purchases out. >>. >> works really well. i chose a drill set because of something that you probably don't necessarily -- unless your drill is broken, and you do a lot of -- >> tim's nickname in college -- lightbulbs you might need. things you need to replace. >> with these led bulbs, you

change them every 20 years. >> specialty lightbulbs. >> the commentary on -- >> whether my drill works or not. >> the commentary on a consumer -- >> nobody asked you that. >> you brought it up. >> nobody brought it up. anyway. >> go to the home depot chart, when you think this made its all-time high. it was the fall of 2021, and now it's been a great take since. there are a number of different reasons home depot should have worked. it is not. tim mentioned negative comps. he is 100% right. if they can pull a rabbit out of the hat on the back of getting inventories in line last quarter, get operating margins north of 15%, you could definitely see a relief rally in this name. >> by the end of the week, this is interesting. we'll get home depot, whatever we say about the consumer, how pressured they feel, how they're putting off projects, wall mart william sonoma, ppi, cpi. >> and again, be careful what you wish for because much weaker inflation also means the fed might feel that they have to do

more fast. in other words, that starts to sound like deflation. i realize the market is very sensitive as to how much is a little and how much is too much. >> up next, final trades. next -- >> i'm telling you what i think would build higher. and today's 52-week low, and later i'm talking with shark anninja beating its quarter. >> next "mad money" cnbc.

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time for the final trade. karen. >> yes, i like lululemon, which is half off where it was when tim was shot it in the like 450ish area. >> tim. >> yeah, just couldn't stand that trade, but thank you, karen. baba is a trade i've been in for a long time, too, as a lot of the market cap in cash, it's not

about the earnings top line. it's about spinoffs and assets. >> dan. >> mel, your point about who apple might need to partner with for apple intelligence, baidu. >> drill demand is going to be important this week, and marathon petroleum. >> thank you for money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but now educate and teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc, or