50 basis points? that's sort of the question mark. dow up about 40 points. nasdaq up about 30 points. s&p up about 9 points. treasury yields, ten-year, 3.852%. we got the two-year at 3.970% and you got a big thank you to melissa lee. >> pleasure. >> for -- pleasure, you say, with such a bright smile. we'll see you at 5:00. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at postnine of the new york stock exchange. futures are steady as cpi does come in light, first time since 2021. that's two dovish prints this week as we await retail sales tomorrow. our road map begins with the inflation picture. likely keeping a rate cut on the table for september. plus it is the biggest deal of the year, candy giant mars

acquiring kellanova, equity value around $30 billion, it's $83.50 a share. we're going to break down the details around this snacking deal. shares of nvidia continue to rebound, up double digits for the week already. that's about $400 billion in additional market value in just four days. let's begin with this market reaction to cpi. 0.2 month on month is in plline although jim, unrounded is a dovish 0.2. >> if it's all shelter and we just saw some really good numbers, by the way, for mortgage and refi, then maybe that takes care of itself. i think what's happened is that housing has finally gotten to the point where people are saying, it's a game of chicken. maybe i should let it go right now. i think we all know people who have been saying, i can hold, i can hold, kind of like braveheart, and now they realize, if i wait a second longer, maybe it's going to fall. once it falls, david, it really

falls. >> it falls. once it falls, it falls. >> well, it falls like niagara falls, not victoria falls, but it falls. >> so, bigger falling. >> bigger falling. yeah, no, i mean, look, we are building a bit of an inventory, and in some parts of the country, the inventory is worse than others. particularly places that were very inflated, florida, arizona, so you're starting to see people say, you know what? maybe i ought to take it. now, i get this, because home depot had some incredible stuff to say about the golden lock-up from rates, you know, in other words, these rates were, like, so low that people got mortgages two and three, golden handcuffs. now, people are starting to have families and they can't stay in these homes, even if they have -- what are you doing? i'm talking to you. >> i'm just futzing with my wire. >> carl, while he's futzing with his wire, there's a lot of people who are saying, you know what? i have to have a bigger house. i can't really care all about a

percent and a half. >> even if you don't move, jim, refi is today up 34.5%. >> that was incredible. >> the best stuff since may of '22. >> home depot did finish up after being down 15 and one of the things you're waiting for is home equity loans because the amount of equity in peoples' homes since 2019 is extraordinary and it's being tapped into. >> which would mean what? good for consumer spend in a way? like we're talking about a weakening consumer. that's what we talk about every day now. >> but we're at the fulcrum where if you start cutting rates, people will then tap into the one -- the asset that they have that has appreciated. when you have an asset that's appreciated, gigantically, as home depot said last night, yesterday morning, well, i mean, you want to use it, but you don't want to use it if you're getting 8% on a heloc but if you can get a good price on that, you can start doing things.

you can remodel, renovate. people have been painting, buying some grills, but you can remodel. you can maybe trade up. >> uh-huh. airfares were down year on year. used cars, insurance was still the wrinkle, fly in the ointment. >> starting to see some ads for cheaper insurance, and i'm quite aware of them. some of them are on our network. so, i see them. i watch our network. >> not buying your insurance, not the gold mine under your house. >> no, david, that has much more to do with they idea that if you die immediately, somebody really wins. >> somebody wins big. no, it's not that. >> that's a form of gambling, and we're probably going to talk about flutter. >> i am going to. >> you are? >> yes, and draftkings. we'll wait to do that around the bell and explain why those stocks may be up this morning. as far as what investors' playbooks look like now, b of a, great piece today, rhyming with what you say, jim, which is, if you're going to broaden beyond

mag seven, look to the equal weight, not the russell. >> that was such a good piece. sometimes you hit these -- see these pieces, and you say, this thing -- the recent pullback -- the s&p 500 equal weight is trading at an extreme discount to the s&p 500. it just seems like you have to kind of do it. when you see a piece like this, it's really a pleasure, because it says, i got to start thinking like that. i got to start looking at equal weight, but i also have to tell you that when i see nvidia underneath it going up, david, you know i think it can't -- they just can't get away from -- >> you can't keep up. what do you make of that significant rebound that we've seen in the stock in the last, let's call it, four sessions? >> okay, i think that there was an article in a publication that came out over a weekend. i'm not going to mention the name of the publication. it said that their major product, blackwell, could be very late, and that is going to set back the hyperscalers, the tech titans. i have, as i said from the day

that that story came out, not been able to verify a single word of that story. not one. >> many people respond -- or those who were supportive of responded immediately saying it's not a demand issue anyway. so, even if blackwell is delayed, you sell more h-100 and it's fine. >> at a very high margin. >> but you think the stock got hit on that. >> yes, i do. look, you've been anround. sometimes there's stories that come out, and they cause a ruckus, and they're very hard to check out, because it's quiet period. now, look, i have a great relationship with nvidia. i'm proud of that. over multiple years. one of the things i'm proud of is they won't tell me anything. they said, we're in a quiet period. and then you say, well, guys, i just need to verify -- no, we're in a quiet period, and after a while, you realize they're not budging because that's not who they are, so they were pitiful,

helpless giant when that article came out. not unlike the united states at one point under president nixon, and i feel like that's what got it. >> meantime, this foxconn profit beat, profit up six, reiterate the full-year guide, demand for a.i. service, commentary about the gb-200. >> that is a very expensive piece. >> but development apparently on track. >> right, it's on track, and i think that when you see stuff like that, you keep saying, then why did some publication come out and say that everybody's going to be hurt by this being off track? knowing that you can't refute that story. i can't refute that. which may be incredibly frustrating, because everything i have been told is, jim, it's on plan from the last time we said it. nothing's changed, but we can't talk about it. >> we're back to blackwell now. >> yeah, because blackwell -- >> not foxconn. >> they had come out with a plan. they didn't say it was going to ship in volume. they didn't. they never said it. suddenly, you have this straw man, they're going to ship in volume, they're late and it's going to crush google even worse

than kanter. jonathan kanter from the antitrust. >> is he coming on today? he seems to come on -- >> yesterday. every other day. >> so, he'll be on tomorrow with us? >> yeah. he will be. jonathan gray is going to take a day off. >> jonathan gray does not come on very often. >> the reason why that interview is so great is because jonathan gray husbands himself. >> and he can discuss things across a broad variety of topics. jonathan kanter is much more focused on antitrust, i find. >> he must have read, what, mornings on horseback? what happened? the bull moose party? what did he read? those moments when teddy, when tr was going after standard oil and created one of the greatest value creations in history in breaking up standard oil. >> maybe that is what inspired him at the doj. >> what can i talk about right now? kellanova? >> we'll talk kellanova. let's get to the biggest deal of the year, enterprise value-wise,

when you add in debt, it's $35 billion. when you do equity value, at least based on the number in the merger agreement, you're somewhere closer to 29 or so billion in equity value. that's not what shareholders care about. what they care about is $83.50, and you can see trading pretty tight to that in the early going here. you are going to get a number of dividends at 57 cents for each quarter. so, add that in, at least a couple if not three of those, and you know, you're getting closer to $85. it was a significant premium to the closing price prior to reports of the potential of a transaction, at least talks between mars and kellanova. and you know, they're talking all about snacking, lining up their various snacking portfolios. obviously, for kellanova, we're talking about a company that was not that long ago split off. remember, kellogg is just those cereal brands domestically that everybody knows. this is the growth business, so to speak, whether it's cheez-its

or pringles or pop tarts or eggo waffles. there's -- mars is a huge company. >> huge. >> private as we know, but enormous with, what, $15 billion brands alone. these guys have a couple. and they're getting bigger in snacking. as for the deal itself, they signed the confidentiality agreement back on skjuly 4th. august 2nd, sort of on documents and things of that nature. i talked about the presence of an activist in these shares for some time. it was actually early in the year, as long ago as february that tcim got involved there. my understanding is they were certainly threatening to go after board seats. they wanted operational improvements, but i think the real hope was that this thing would get bought. when i checked with a lot of bankers at the time, though, jim, almost uniformly, the bankers that i approached, who know this area, are like, no, time's not right.

an activist gets involved, but really, they don't understand how it works in terms of companies when they're ready to do a deal and they're not, so whether it's mars or mondelez or hershey, those were the names that were most likely to be interested, i was told, no. and of course a number of months later, yes. and in fact, this deal is now done. again, the largest of the year, and mars is private. so, kellanova becomes part of an enormous private company. >> well, you know, david, i think it's great that you mentioned -- stressed the private, and the reason i say that is because smucker bought hostess. smucker is a pretty good company, and forever it's going to be tagged as the deal that was flying in the face of glp-1s >> and also, by the way, at 18 times, that set a bar that was quite high in terms of the multiple. the multiple here closer to about 16.5 times ebitda, which is what many had anticipated might be a number that a lot of, you know, those who play these

things thought maybe we'd get mid-80s and frankly we more or less did when you include dividends, but that hostess multiple also, jim, was quite high. >> that was not a good deal. i feel they haven't -- it hasn't hurt them, but the stock does nothing. david, i have to tell you, when i look at their portfolio, initially, i said, oh my god, did they just sit there and buy the absolute worst? it's the opposite. they have -- they're going to dominate a section of the market, which is the kind bar, nutrigrain bar, which is where you want to be, because that is not a glp-1 enemy. >> on the subject of antitrust, there was some question as to if there was a snack bar overlap. >> oh, no. >> no, no, no. i'm just saying, look at a deal like this, you always take into account, is there any antitrust risk? there doesn't seem to be much of any, except in that one area where they would control at least more than a quarter of the market. >> would they throw pop tarts in there? they've got some things that

are, i think, very attractive, but they're also going to own the cracker aisle. crackers are good. you can surround ritz if you want to. remember when you didn't have enough money and you would make that mock-up -- >> ritz crackers are delicious. >> so many different varieties. we're going to talk to both sides in the 11:00, and mars doesn't talk very much. this is their biggest deal, bigger than wrigley back in '18. was it '18? >> he's a hitter, the guy. >> and the mars family very involved too. >> so conservative. >> we'll be looking forward to that. >> can i give you one other -- >> cahillane hits the bid. unclear -- i think hershey at least was trying to see if they could mount something. i don't want to go too far on that, but it doesn't appear that there's going to be any other bid here, particularly given what is at least the price that came in more or less where it had been anticipated. not the 18 multiple that some had hoped for. >> cheez-it fits in with this

cracker theory of mine, but the one that is really interesting is eggo. the frozen food aisle is considered to be denizens, gen x, millennial, you can make them at home. i remember when this -- this thing was conceived, in the early '80s. >> you were there for the genesis of eggo? >> no, but my -- one of my closest friends, whom i've lost track of, adam, one of the great brand managers of our lifetime, he was on it, and a lot of people felt like, are you kidding? what do you think about a frozen waffle? i said, that's ridiculous. you make waffles. well, david, now look at it. >> they showed you. >> they showed me. >> nicely done. >> stag. stag was -- adam, if you're watching, congratulations. >> we'll talk more about the impact to glp-1s, because this flies in the face of glp-1s. >> it does but in the meantime, it was something to talk about. i thought we would have to talk about the cpi for 17 minutes. >> i think you spoke enough

about that. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. >> good number. good way to lead. there's a lot more too. when we come back, former google chief eric schmidt take his old company to task over its work from home policy. we'll talk about these reports about doj, the a.i. event yesterday, take a look at the premarket. interesting to see cpi not really moving the needle much in either direction. quk t seetey. sad "sawonhetrt" is book in a minute.

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did somebody say “easy moves”? ♪ ♪ oh no. no, i was talking about moving your internet. this will move the internet. ♪ ♪ ooh, ooh. -let's keep it professional. professional dancers! -ok! stay connected during your move with the best in home wifi. easily transfer your services in the xfinity app. bring on the good stuff. former google ceo eric schmidt has a complaint about the company he used to run. he suggests the tech giant's remote work policy has contributed to its struggles in a.i. schmidt's comments were made at a discussion at stanford. the university released this video yesterday. >> google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning. and the start-ups -- the reason start-ups work is because the people work like hell.

and i'm sorry to be so blunt. but the fact of the matter is, if you all leave the university and go found a company, you're not going to let people work from home and only come in one day a week if you want to compete against the other start-ups. >> some argue, jim, this took a little shine off the a.i. event yesterday. >> yeah, look, i think that -- i think he's right. what can i say? there are two different kinds of work. the there's the work where you decided, i'm going to roll the dice, be on my own, and then there's where you come in, wear a suit, wear shorts, and you work at home, we don't care, and i think that the collaboration at this level is everything you have. if you're on your own, you're not going to collaborate, i don't know how it works. how's it work? >> we've been saying this for years at this point. doesn't matter. i mean, fridays certainly are a day that most people do not come to the office, i think, it's fair to say in this country. that said, a lot of companies are back to at least expecting

four days a week, which probably gets it done for the most part in terms of accomplishing the things you're talking about, but google is not that place. as much as they may have wanted many of their employees to come back, they've been at war in a sense with their employee base in terms of working remotely and not, and you know, we have all questioned how you can have a sense of urgency in an organization in terms of attacking something such as a huge sea change to your business' a.i. by all just sort of being, you know, not together. by the way, we should point out, those comments were from some time ago. stanford just released the video, and that's why it's getting attention. but as you might imagine, stanford's not in session right now, so that was from a number of months ago, is our understanding, but it is now being made public. >> i'd like to know whether the athletes from stanford who medaled, did they all, like, get together? they don't seem like they didn't work fridays. >> ledecky would be one. >> i think ledecky probably

worked friday with a glass of milk on her head. >> right. as for the doj reports, jim, i know you've been all over the notion of a break-up and what that would do to overall value. >> if jonathan kanter wants to -- maybe he switched to the bulls. he's been on the bear side. first of all, you have waymo in there. no one even knows what waymo does. you have the other bets. maybe they'd be worth something. search is such a good business. on the last conference call, they completely blew what youtube was worth. maybe if someone was a great spokesperson for youtube, we would know what they are doing. android is great. this thing is so terrific that it should be broken up into five or six companies, and it would be -- >> sotp, huh? >> i think that kanter used a price target -- >> sum of the parts, by the way. >> right now, he had been a sell, but it was a double upgrade. >> we should make the point that what the doj wants is not necessarily what the judge would recommend as a remedy, not to

mention the appeals process is going to stretch out over years, so there is unlikely to be any significant conclusion to the victory by the u.s., at least initially. >> it almost seems like it's a race against the clock. it's almost like there's an election and maybe these people won't be there so they ought to do it now. >> we always make the point that technology ends up moving past the remedy so often. >> so, if you -- who uses google when you use meta a.i.? meta a.i. is -- i got to tell you guys. >> a.i. available on whatsapp? are you aware of that? >> it's everywhere, meta a.i. i'm on meta a.i. maybe 20 times a day and i've only had one miss. they have all the information in the world. it's so good. >> you're an open source, jim. >> like adam, the man behind leggo my eggo, david, 1981. >> i still eat life cereal.

mikey likes it. >> life. yeah. >> is that general mills? >> that is, i believe. yes. >> quaker. of course it's quaker. >> i put tony the tiger in my tank. >> i am literally an old -- >> as fascinating as this is, they're making us go to break. can you believe that? >> why can't we continue to talk about our cereal choices? >> move on, david. we'll get to a bunch of trar names day, news onily, news out of victoria's secret, avon. stay with us but the choice won't be easy with exceptional offers on the e-class sedan, c-class sedan, .cabriolet and cle coupe. hurry, these dream offers won't last forever. come in now through september 3rd.

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some nasdaq 100 gainers this morning. we mentioned the print and the guidance out of foxconn today. generally helping tech sentiment. arm and micron, scmi and nvidia the top four. that opening bell is coming up in four minutes. don't go anywhere.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, 30-second "mad dash," opening bell. >> i just want to point out, i talked about the housing poll. wolf comes out with a piece downgrading pulte home. florida recent inventory run, below levels nationally but look at this. it's at 4.6 months, greater than 2.8 months. >> inventory going up in the florida market. >> that's what you're -- if you're in that market, you're

saying, oh my god, i think i might have missed the top. that's how you get a real top. >> let's get the opening bell here in the cnbc realtime exchange. at the big board, it is realty income. at the nasdaq, it is microsoft and their summer mentorship program. >> i was recommending -- carl, a lot of our viewers watch the show, and they want monthly income. realty income has a monthly dividend. >> breadth filling in evenly, jim. about ten points shy of the 50 day on the s&p. some argue that's going to be an interesting test. >> did we hold the 200 before? i think there's a lot of it can-driven stuff and that's because we didn't understand why we were going down to begin with and when you were away, david talked about the end carry trade and we sat here and laughed, because what it really is about

money managers doing something wrong. archegos, how you doing? >> here we are a week past that, and things have calmed down greatly. obviously, that vix print that was really premarket that some people point to, it wasn't really real. >> it was high. vix was high. >> it was, and it's obviously not nearly as high at this point. nvidia continues its ascent, jim. >> the shorts are going to have to stop nvidia. the shorts have to try. they have articles about -- negative about nvidia. they talk about blackwell being negative. they talk about everybody who buys their stuff not doing well, and i come back and say, well, the biggest buyer is meta. how's meta doing as a stock? how's meta a.i. doing? that -- mark zuckerberg decided, you know what? i'm going to win this. i'm going to win this. even thinks amazon's got to spend because of google. no. they got to spend to keep up with mark and they'll tell you that offline. like, oh my god, you know what? i got to catch up to mark. it isn't like they're sitting there saying, we need mutually assured destruction of our

bottom lines. this guy, in his conference call, talked about meta a.i., and anyone who's been it since then has not come back to the rest of them. it's so good. it's funny too. it's funny. it has a sense of humor. >> we all need humor in our lives. >> it's ironic. >> that's not easy to do. >> if you go in the on site, that is a great one. they have a bot. i said, i'm tired of getting the little pebbles in my shoe. do you have that new one? it comes back, oh, the pebbles in the shoe, we've dealt with that, but we understand. i'm talking to these bots, and they're much better than humans. remember when the bot was, like, when you knew you were taulking to a bot? i was asking mr. hoffman from on, am i talking to a bot or a human? >> interesting. >> they're polite. by the way, you see amazon. when amazon reported, everybody hated it, it was because on the day of the attempted assassination of president trump, the numbers went down at the end of the day. and because they claim that people were watching the olympics, so therefore, they weren't shopping. guess what?

they were watching the olympics. the olympics are now over, and amazon is now up eight points from where it was when it fell that day. the olympics, carl, as you know, had the attention of the country. you didn't shop as much during the olympics. >> primetime average, 30.6 million viewers a night, up 80% -- up 82% from the prior summer games. >> way to go, nbc. that's really going to help the stock price. >> as captivating as they are, do you think that you went on amazon and said, i'm going to miss the end of the surfing thing because i need a pair of shoelaces? >> they do have these things called advertisements. when i'm watching television of that type, i take advantage of those breaks to do whatever i want to do. >> not everybody does that. >> i think you can do it pretty quickly on amazon, and by the way, the doorbell would ring by the time you're watching the olympics. >> that's to wipe out walgreens and cvs, as far as i'm concerned. that's not their goal. jonathan catherinkanter, they dt

world domination. >> as a share of the grocery industry, they're just a sliver, right? >> jonathan, you want to break up google? good, i got meta a.i. i don't need google. i don't need the search, but please let me keep the youtube package with the football. can i keep that? >> sure. sure, jim, you can keep that. >> he's a surrogate for the justice department. and how about the -- do you remember when bobby kennedy had the get hoffa squad? these guys have the get big tech squad. do you think they call them hyperscalers? >> no. no. >> no. >> i'll change it up here, guys, and talk a bit about draftkings and flutter, the owner of fanduel, because there had been a lot of concern amongst investors about a potential additional tax in states such as illinois, and in fact, draftkings had broached the idea of charging an additional charjs a surcharge, to users in states that had additional taxes. in an ak yesterday, they said

we're not moving forward arwith the tax-related surcharge, and flutter, for its part as well, came out with a response, basically, that a lot of investors say make sense. you want to charge more in a particular state? we're going to decrease marketing in that state and therefore people may not make as many wagers, and your overall revenues, in terms of taxes, may go down. so, the response from flutter and potentially draftkings to these increased taxes appears to be not that we're going to have a surcharge, but that we're simply going to spend less money to get people to gamble in those states, so your income, overall, will go down. you can see -- wow. look at the impact that's having on shares of flutter. again, the owner of fanduel, and also draftkings is up nicely, jim, as well. >> draftkings has been down a lot of late. look, i think that gambling is something that we don't talk enough about, because gambling is what makes it so that the

fourth quarter of football is worth watching. you normally would turn it off if it's a blowout, but now you watch. >> and we've always talked often about the melding, if you will, of gambling and investing. you've talked often about the robinhood platform, the zero day options, the fact that the same cohort that is betting on games often seems to be betting on whether nvidia's price will hit a certain level by the end of the day. >> right. >> and there doesn't seem to be much difference between those two kinds of wagers. >> no. there's not. remember, you can do daily fantasy in some states that you can't do, you know, if you don't have gambling. it's a great gateway. >> daily fantasy? >> a lot it -- i've worked -- full disclosure, i have worked with draftkings. i had a deal with them. i think they're terrific. i did get, today, high -- we are writing in regard to the bets you placed on this golf tournament. perhaps that was sent -- i did not bet on golf.

just so you know. i don't bet on golf, because i don't know anything about golf. but that's what you got. >> that's what you got there. >> got that this morning. i use draftkings. that's what i play on. >> yeah. >> i play daily fantasy against my kids. i love it. i don't win, but i don't throw it. >> other news this morning, southwest airlines has responded to that proxy fight from elliott. you know, it's funny, yesterday this time, we should talk, of course, about starbucks and chipotle yet again after that incredible move in both stocks yesterday on the ascension of brian niccol to the ceo job at starbucks, but i mentioned elliott because of their presence in starbucks and the fact that they haven't run that many proxy fights. well, they're involved in a doozy now for sure. we're talking not one, not two, not five, not -- how many? >> ten. >> ten. >> 10 out of 15. >> ten director nominees. >> these are hitters. this is not -- these are

hitters. they've got someone with operation experience, someone in tech, labor relations, general transformation, government. i was quite impressed with who they have. it's impressive. >> elliott owns about 11% less. they take these stakes through derivative and then convert to the stock itself. but they own a lot of the company, and they really want -- they want the whole thing. >> right. >> they want to control southwest, and they want this management team gone. >> if you survey the large holders, i think they may have a leg up here. >> could this actually happen? do you think they could win? >> i think they win. >> southwest statement responding says, since elliott launchd its campaign, the board has sought to engage constructively and in the best interest of all shareholders, and they say elliott's dismissed those efforts at every turn. >> well, look, i do think that if you look at the stock, and

you look at what we know is the story, they do have a big analyst meeting coming up, and if they end up saying, listen, we're going to do what the elliott wants, i think it would be different. it's very ugly. let's put it that way. and the people who are involved, like, i -- look, the -- david cush, former ceo of virgin air, a hitter. sara feinberg. >> transportation regulator. >> terrific. >> nancy, board member of meta. total hitter again. the former ceo of west jet, the stock appreciated 100% underneath him, and patty watson is a great technology turnaround. what can i say? these are not dice rolls. when you go look, go ahead, when you look at the -- at the -- >> southwest. >> it's not -- i don't think they have the hitters that -- or are connected to the businesses

as well. they're nice people. >> well, herb kel her would probably not be happy about this. >> jill -- look, she works at jcpenney and former president of joann stores. do you think that's the connection at southwest? >> we'll see if it's a settlement or whether this thing goes to a full proxy fight, but this is the most important activist, elliott, and they don't engage in proxy fights too often, in part because a lot of times they get kind of what they want. in the case of starbucks, as i reported yesterday, it's unclear that they had -- they had nothing to do with who they reached out to or anything else. their presence there, their significant shareholder ownership certainly may have lit a fire under the board in some way that might not otherwise have taken place. stock's down a little bit today, carl, but that move yesterday was truly extraordinary, both in starbucks' move up and in chipotle's move down, all because of one guy, brian niccol. >> got a little overheated. my travel trust owns starbucks. i want to go back for a second.

there's some good people on the southwest board. >> you're changing the subject already? we're talking about starbucks. >> i didn't want to pick on one person. brinker. symbol e. i just -- i'm just saying, they're not as focused. they're not as airline-ish. >> all right. we're talking about starbucks and chipotle. that's why -- >> i had to finish my thought. i didn't want someone to say, jim just i thsingled out one pe. i didn't want to be rude. there is a belief that the real problem with starbucks are about mechanical stuff. and it's interesting because the thing that laxman was supposed to be good at was the mechanical. and i find that this is a repudiation of a process and of a person that just didn't seem to click at all, and carl, the first thing people would tell you on his side, and he did have a side, is that he donned the

aprons, got to know as many baristas as possible, but maybe that was the forest-trees problem because what really mattered was getting people in and out. >> got upgrades for starbucks out of stifel and deutsche. wedbush ups chipotle of lot of snark about mckenzie ceos yesterday, speaking of laxman narasimhan. >> there is a backlash, absolutely. everybody knows someone -- you bring in mckinsey, deloitte, these are places where they have a lot of smart minds, but yes, there was a -- in the heard on the street for the interview that i did with laxman, we did, it mentioned that he came back with mckenzie speak, which, david, i guess is like, i don't know, what is mckenzie speak? >> i don't speak mckenzie speak. >> you're illiterate in mckenzie speak. >> you can lernarn it on duolin. >> i'm sure they have an entire

lexicon. >> it's best practices. >> well, it's like -- it's -- >> what are your best practices? are you a culture -- what are you, a culture cleanser? no. >> i work seven days a week. i don't know what the hell that guy who dropped out of google is thinking. >> jim, you mentioned brinker. where chili's comps are up almost 15, but this guidance on the full-year had them open -- this would be the worst day since may of last year. >> i've got them on, and i want to spend some more time on that because they've done a lot of things that are right. the stock has gotten very, very -- you know, can you say it's overheated? i think the numbers were fine. it survived because they have the under $11 meal, the smash burger, which is fabulous. i don't want to give up on them. i think that there's a lot that hochman has done a fabulous job. i want to do more on this. >> you should do work on it because it's down 15%.

it's not like a 3% delcline. >> i'm going to have him on and just wing it. i'm saying it's wrong that maybe it's being crushed. >> the implied guidance on comps, down 3 to 5. street is down 3. it's not a wide -- it wouldn't be a wide miss. >> and look, there's a lot of positive commentary about it. and i think that this is one where you should give it the benefit of the doubt. hochman's done a fabulous job. a former brinker person's on the board of southwest, david, if you want to be arcane and obtuse, like the warden in shawshank, but i think that brinker -- okay. i'm going to listen to the conference call. >> you should. >> because you know that's what i do, david. >> i do know who you do it. typically, you've already done it. >> it hasn't happened. but carl, this is the -- >> now you have your a.i. bot do it for you, don't you? >> how do you know that's not who you're speaking to right now? i don't want -- sometimes a guy like kevin hochman has turned this thing around, so we got to spend some time before we throw

him under the m-104. that's a bus. just in case you didn't -- >> thank you. actually, i know that. i know that line pretty well. >> the m-104? >> it runs up broadway. >> i didn't know you had -- >> the backdrop remains the same, and they are going to have to adjust some pricing if they want to drive traffic. >> and you know, they have the cheapest margarita in the country. they did switch. they have a lesser tequila. the largest server of margis. i found this hard because i know they've got prices that were -- almost converged with mcdonald's and this is sitdown, but we'll find out. if it was a price too far, he'll just say it. kevin hochman will just tell you, look, i didn't do this right. he's from the school of transparency. how about that? >> as for the broader market, jim, we mentioned this attempt to get back to the 50-day. september has not been a good month for the s&p the last four years. average returns down almost

three. >> you got to skedaddle september. if you do, the sell in may is completely idiotic. there's no ditty, no ogden ditty for september. no e.e. cummings ditty. >> i think i'm following your references. >> i got a meeting at noon and i'm going to give brains out to the company based on their quarters and conference call and it's not great. it's like when my father wouldn't let me have dinner because i got a "b" in fourth grade. >> you don't think the beat for the quarter has been sufficient? >> i think -- i think the combination of what some of these companies had to say on their calls and how they did was suboptimal. and i'm going to call them out. why not? i mean, i had given a "d" -- my first draft, i had given a "d" to starbucks, but you know what? they now are an incomplete. i gave them a "d." >> you don't think it was overdone yesterday, that 21-plus percent -- >> it was overdone.

>> based on one guy and what he will conceivably accomplish as many accolades as have come in for him. >> but you have to remember where the stock was before the complete cataclysm of quarters. the stock was hanging in, and i think that when you look at this man's reputation at chipotle, where he came in, remember, people felt like chipotle was, like, this -- >> let's go back a little bit on the stock if we can, guys. i wanted to look at more a one-week. >> i knew brian from -- brian has been around for a while, and he has been in a lot of places. he's from that great coaching tree, that young coaching tree, which is pretty good. >> although others pointed out yesterday, the chipotle turnaround was about a food safety fix. this is about a lot more than that. >> well, i think that when you -- if you go look at the -- go on the last conference call. and this is just typical of their fantastic conference calls. there was a tremendous amount of time talking about taking 28 seconds off of transactions and

how there was a boston chipotle that had taken 28 seconds off, and it was being hailed because, you see, the really good managers, when you have something incremental that's good, they hale those people because how much did it cost for brian niccol to single out that boston chipotle? >> nothing. >> why don't other ceos think about pointing out places that do well and divisions within companies? >> i agree with you completely. >> what's it cost? >> nothing. go boosts people up. makes people happier. morale. >> morale is important. >> very important. they teach you that at mckenzie. they don't call it morale, though. >> we didn't mention victoria's secret, up 20% on this hillary super ceo, former of anthropoligie. it's a coup. it's a seasoned operator. really terrific.

and i don't think mckinsey knew. >> as we go to break, watch bonds. we got the big print out of the way for today. a cpi came in a little tame. not much else on the docket, but of course, retail sales tomorrow will be another barn burner. we'll check that out with the ten-year right around 3.83%. stay with us.

got that news yesterday from tilray, acquiring four beer labels. it will boost their growth, by 30%. we're going to talk to irwin simon later this morning. s&p down about three. n'gonyw'up7. dot awhere. (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place.

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it's time for jim's "stop trading." >> intel is down. it slowed down. 1.1 million shares of arm. might have raised $147 million. they're trying to sell it to mobilize. they are raising cash.

and they're raising cash. they must raise cash to get that balance sheet up. you have to keep that. but it's a sign, again, that they've got to do -- they have to take a lot of action. >> how about tonight? >> okay. i havekevin hoffman, that's the ceo of brinker. and strauss zelnick had a really good quarter two. you're on the verge of grand theft auto 6. that's what you're supposed to buy right now. there's some games. it's -- >> not his kids. not his wife. >> and one of them was pregnant.

>> the cows. coming for the cows. >> okay. >> that's what i'm looking. is cows. >> i have cows. >> it's nice. when they tease, they don't want to talk to you. once you name them, you can't eat them. that's the real problem. you name them, you can't eat them. one of those would take care of a family of four for a year. >> lucky bovines. we'll see you tonight. "mad money" 6:00 p.m. dow is down 100. the s&p down lower. stick around.

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uh. good wednesday morning. i'm sara idesen, with david and carl, live at the new york stock exchange. the stocks are mostly lower. we adjust, the inflation report.

s&p is down 0.1%. that's masking some of the strength in the sectors like energy. financials having a good day. consumers, real and health care, all higher. communication and technology is lower, that is dragging down the overall index. the nasdaq, 4%, which has been a strong run this week. thanks to nvidia, one of the largest components having a nice rebound week. the dow is higher. that's because home depot is adding 27. united health, travelers, microsoft, all big gainers today. look at treasuries. seeing a minirally, with yields coming down a little bit. the ten-year yield below 4%. here's three big movers. kellanova is up, that mars is buying that company. biggest deal of the year so far. the ceo of those companies will

be joining us exclusively on "money movers." alp alphabet, moving, that the d.o.j. is going to break up google, following a court ruling that google monopolized the search market. and brinker, the owner of chili's, a lower than expected profit all year. the stock is down more than 14%. the cpi report, with anticipation on the inflation numbers. increasingly, this is a good thing they are coming in line and less dramatic. they have 0.2% on the monthly increase. that was about as expected. and on the core, if you strip out food and energy, you got 0.2% on the monthly increase. and actually, if you round -- if you don't round it, you get a lower number, which is good news for the fed, good news for the

market, helps the fed cement the idea and feel more comfortable with the idea they can cut rates, starting in september. where are we, on the year for year numbers? they target 2%, right? we got down to 2.9% on the headline number. that's good. and now, we're at 3.2%. where is the inflation still happening in the economy? food is still 0.2%. and it 's higher if you eating away from home, than at groceries. shelter is a problem. that's the owner's equivalent rent. because of the bay they calculate it, it lags. and transportation services, a contributor. that's autoinsurance, that saw more than 1% jump on the month. used cars, 2.3% on the month. apparel is deflationary. medical services came down. i would add airfares to that

mix, as well, that helped the transportation services. so, all in all, guys, it's good news for the fed and for the market itching to cut rates. it's not necessarily indicative of a 50 basis point cut, that some of the markets were getting excited about. there are areas, david, of the economy, that are looking hot. if there's disappointment around this number today, it comes from the fact that the market is getting too aggressively priced for rate cuts. they are cutting in 100 basis points of cuts. 200 by next august. >> we're getting 50 in september. i'm curious, if we get 50, what you think the reaction will be in the bond market. >> the expectation, the market is not convinced of 50. and economists aren't convinced of 50. this report won't convince anyone of the fed of 50. now, what this does, is it puts

the onus more on the labor market data. that's going to determine if we get a 50 or more rate cuts. now, the bigger risk in the fed's two-sided mandate. that will determine it. if we get a weak jobs report, the odds go up 50, in the fed mind and in investors' minds. that's the takeaway of the data. chris at forward bond, says the inflation outbreak is over. therefore, we need to overweight the jobs number. they will get the august jobs number before the september meeting. think that will be important in terming how big of a rate cut we get. we heard from atlanta, fed president, bostic, they are getting in the july meeting when they pivoted the language towards an evening bias.

he said it would be bad to turn around and raise rates after they were cut. it's coming. if the economy evolves, you will have bigger smiles on your face at the end of the year, talking about the cuts. they are warming to the idea. and a lot of people expect chair powell when he speaks at jackson hole, to sound more confident. he was a little more wishy washy in july and found the cut was coming. not precommit and certainly not precommit to a double, which is a 50. >> right. the retail sales will be tomorrow and jobs, most important. and the only other shoutout i want to give, is treasury secretary janet yellen, we talked to her in 2023. and we were getting points in the mid 3s. remember what she predicted. let's refresh your memory on this one.

when do you think the fed will increase its market? >> my expectation is that inflation will continue to come down. and i would, frankly, expect -- i don't want to do a precise forecast for you. when we come to the end of 2024, it's likely to be the first new month. >> a lot of people were predicting that. we got a 9% read on the cpi. want to give a little credit there. it should be good news for the biden administration. if they can convince americans that the cumulative impact isn't as dire right now. that's the problem that's fighting against them on the political front, that people have been feeling this for years. it's added up. >> we're running 1-6, below target. it's only three months.

let's turn to market reaction, following the print. joining us, is ed yardenny. i think it was heather long that said it's looking more and more like the u.s. inflation battle is done p. a are you willing to go that far? >> absolutely. i've been predicting that we get to 2% to 3%, by the end of last year and this year. we're basically there. and we'll get to 2% by the end of the year. you think i'm sheltered from the cpi, you're there. the kids in the backseat, asking are we there yet? we're there. 1.9% for shelter. >> so, we're entering the marking lot, i guess. are you suggesting -- and i think shelter is 90% of the increase this month? >> i believe so, yeah.

>> yeah. do you expect the follow on effect to accelerate, or is this going to be a test of patience with that lag? >> i think it's -- we know it's a lagging one. it could pick up. it's really kind of a lagger that is catching up with current rents. it includes current rents and outstanding rents. but i think time is actually on our side, in terms of getting faster decreases in rent. the other note that got my attention, is yesterday, when you talked about what is happening in kursk, with yu ukraine, and the reaction, the word you used unsettling. how high is that on your radar? >> that's number one. the geopolitical concerns is my number one concern. i'm not concerned about the economy. i think it's resilient. and the next employment number is going to be a strong one.

the last one was weather affected. and inflation is not a concern because it's going to way we thought it would go. at this point, what's going on between russia and ukraine, and the pensions and conflicts in the middle east, there's a lot of geopolitical risk. and then, yesterday, i think a lot of yesterday's rally was because the iranians said, if the israelis and hamas work out a cease-fire, they won't attack israel. it's on and off, in terms of the geopolitics impact on the market. >> i do wonder, ed, if we're in a place, and i talked about the aggressive pricing for fed cuts. the benign inflation data isn't as soothing to the market as it would be. the market is expecting more

cuts. you would see a deterioration on the economy, to justify the cuts, which is not good for equity. >> yeah. i've been opposed to a rate cut. i'm a reasonable person. if the fed signals they're going to cut no matter what i think, that's what's going to happen. i think it's a quarter point. it's one and done for the year. i don't buy the 1500 point cut for the feds fund race. >> the odds of the meeting are plummeting even after the panic of last week. >> that would have been a disaster. that would have worsened the trade end line. >> you pointed that out, in the midst of the action last week. would have been ironic and bad. ed yardeni, thank you. as we head to a quick break, let's get you a road map for the rest of the hour. what the inflation print means, we'll have the former fed vice

chair allen blinder with us. >> and deal of the day, mars is buying kellanova. biggest deal of the year. we're going into details this year. >> and d.o.j. is breaking up google. we're going to talk about the potential road ahead, as the big show continues. "k "squawk on the street." it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

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shares of nvidia, up 15% from the lows. >> all right. carl, that trade for nvidia, has been a huge bounce. it speaks to that megacap technology, overall. let's put it in context for you. the nvidia stock is a move higher. the bounce you're seeing here, has been a massive move higher. let's look at the last week's worth of trade, within the three best performers in the mag 7 megacap trade. it's been nvidia, on a three-week basis. and tesla, up around 5%, or 6%. your three biggest gainers on a one-week basis on that trade. with regard to nvidia, the computer chip stocks, they are among the best performers in the one-week basis. look at names like supermicrocomputer, up 13%. micron, up 13%, as well, just in the last week.

and some of the other ones, rounding out the top semiconductor trades, as well. look at kla corporation. 12.5% gain. applied materials and lam research. it tells you about that leading edge what's been bouncing back the most. it's been computer chips. david, we know some traders like the look of that semiconductor trade as a leading indicator and by extension, the big ef nasdaq and s&p 500, as well. >> dom, thank you. dom chu back at h.q. cisco is going to report earnings after the bell today. and tomorrow morning, chuck robbins is going to join us, right here. a break down the numbers from the company. also, some reports of potential layoffs. we'll have to wait and see what we get there. another stock we're keeping an eye on this morning, southwest, activist investor, elliot management is going to launch a proxy fight there.

it dominated as many as ten directors for the company's 15-person board. i want to bring him in now, phil. they own 11% of the company. we've known about the presence for some time, do we have a sense of what elliot wants? if it does gain a majority of the seats on the board, that the company is not doing? >> they want them to move faster. you will hear southwest, who have said, we announced a number of changes that will be kicking in, over the next year, year and a half. including assigned seating, as well as red eye flights. and premium seating, that is the revenue driver. those are three. we're going to hear about more in late september. elliott's response is, you got to do more and do it faster. by the way, you are correct, david. when you add in derivatives,

they have a 7% stake in southwest. once they get over 10%, they can then call for a shareholder meeting, which is when we would see the proxy fight play out, in how many directors potentially could be elected to the board. there's 15 seats overall. southwest also points out that it has been adding more independent directors to southwest. something that elliott, elliott thinks that it's basically a lot of people who have been in place for a long time, and that southwest is not moving fast enough. this is going to play out over the next couple of months. whether we get to a shareholder meeting or a approximatety vote. or if we see southwest add more changes even quicker. it is worth noting that southwest has said, and i talked to bob jordan, look, we tried to engage elliott in conversation. we're willing to work with elliott. elliott has been a no-go in

terms of any discussion. so, let's see how this plays out. >> yeah. southwest said that, in part of their statement. they want a clean house, it would seem. in terms of the executive. >> they said from the beginning. jordan's got to go. the former ceo, both have to go. in the ice eyes of elliott, tho two guys have been at southwest so long, they're not moving the company in the right direction quick enough. bob jordan has countered saying, we have had a number of issues, that have set us back, including fewer airplanes from boeing, which definitely has had an impact in the last year and a half. and other issues, some of them brought on by themselves, and they are moving in the right direction. again, getting back to my original point and what you talked about last hour, with jim, are they moving fast

enough? elliott said, we're adding changes here, are you moving fast enough, or do you have institutional investors that say, if there's a proxy fight and vote, maybe we get more outsiders on the board. >> we'll watch that drama unfold. when we come back, the details on the biggest deal of the year. mars buying kellanova. we're back in two. you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." check out shares of kellanova, popping up 8%. news that mars, the company behind ms is andnames you know. it's the biggest deal of the year and biggest deal for mars, since 2008. we're going to talk to both ceo.

mars and kellanova. a cnbc exclusive that you don't want to miss. why now? and what's the future here? the strategic value is clear. eggo waffle's, pringles. they're going to add two more billion-dollar brands to the portfolio. and they're going to add salty to sweet. that's the rationale here. mars has good market share, 20%, 30%, in cocoa products. and in sugar candy, in gum. they have about 50% market % share. they have a big pet food business, as well. they have iams. but not as much in the salty or savory snack mix. that's where kellanova comes in. and it gives them international exposure, in emerging markets like africa. kellanova has business there and

growth in that. the question is, david, we're in a period where after covid, as inflation ran up, as caost inpus ran up, a lot of the brands implemented price increases. they were able to pass along prices to consumers. and people are eating at home more. that's reversed. people are eating out more. and inflation, being high for so long, has put pressure on some of the brands and some of the companies. and they're not as able to pass it along. we'll talk about that and a lot more. they don't have to justify the high valuation as much. >> below that of what smucker's paid for hostess, which is 18-times. in that range, that many investors had expected, once we got potential talks between mars and kellanova.

you get closer to around 85. it was, as you pointed out, 33% premium, before the stocks started moving on potential talks between the two close. not a lot of overlap. not many concerns on antitrust. you ask why. i would also point to the presence of an activist investor. people may not be that familiar with tcim. they were pushing the executive team is my understanding, what they felt was a discount. that is the rest of the group. when they talk to them, they will say nothing about that and have no impact whatsoever. they were going to go after directors there. they can claim that the timing was right. nobody was talking about a takeover at the time when they got involved. and i don't think they were thinking about it. >> the timing is interesting.

he just spun the company. >> yeah, just split not that long ago. >> it went through last year. this was the snacking company, as opposed to the cereal. >> much smaller company. >> and even smaller company, which was the alternative, healthy brands. >> this is the potential impact on the brand portfolio. you have to believe over time, it will eat away a bit, to the extent that people don't eat as much. >> not to mention, regulation around sugar, which is another potential long-term headwind. we'll talk about it. you know what? we never talked to mars. they are famously secret, private, behemoth company. looking forward. i think i've tried to get them on for the last ten years. >> wow. >> it's a different ceo. the new ceo -- >> they don't need to talk. you talk out, they are private. >> this is a transformational

deal for mars. and there's questions of focus, right? they have a big portfolio already. and this takes them into a lot of new categories. let's turn to another consumer name. that's chipotle. stocks coming off of the worst day in over a year. what's next for that company? our kay rte rodgers is here. >> chipotle is one of the company that is performing in the strong environment, the ship is steady at the moment. the seven-year veteran and chief oerting officer, scott boatwright. he is integrating technology into the company's restaurants and has been part of the turnaround plan that's taken shape in the last six years. another key part of this plan, jack hartung staying onboard. he planned to retire in 2025, now will remain with the company as president of strategy, and

supply chain. out performing on the stock this morning. he lebelieves it's in a good ple and good hands. and peter slate echoing that statement. saying we believe that chipotle is on excellent footing, investing in national advertising and initiating a rewards program under m mr. nicmr. nicole 's leadership. the company beat on same-store sales again and saw traffic increase more than 8%. and reminder, it is seeing growth in all income cohorts. chipotle customers is not showing price increases. they have a pushback on portion sizes. they are going to invest on making sure that's the correct size and retraining some of the workers there.

>> pretty vocal about that last topic, the last few months. thanks kate. kate rogers. consumer prices with the smallest gains since 2021, what investors need to know, what atea f t fed's next rate decision after this.

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the judge that oversaw donald trump's hush money trial has refused to step aside for the third time. trump lawyers said he had a conflict of interest because his daughter worked for democratic campaigns. ukraine's president said the country will go into the kursk region. putin called the advance a major provocation. it's the biggest foreign incursion into russia since

world war ii. and puerto rico would see as much as ten inches of rain as tropical storm ernesto moves into the territory. local authorities have suspended transportation and told residents to prepare for power outages. forecasters say ernesto is going to gather strength and become the third hurricane of the season. david, back to you. >> thank you. if you haven't heard, consumer prices fell below 3% for the first time in three years. steve gleason is here with some takeaways. >> with today's cpi depate, the market turns to whether the fed will cut and how much it will cut. the answer will rest on data on the weakness or the strength of the economy, rather than inflation. we're kind of changing our focus here. headline inflation, is 0.2% as unexpected. firming and the 0.2, was soft. that's they rounded up to that number. the year over year rates fell. headline at 2.9% and 3.2% for

the core. those are the lowest we've seen since 2021. ooh look at the chart is a reason for the relief out there. now, we have a couple of months where we've been declining. the internals report that there will be further relief as there's plenty of room to ease further in the second half of the year. here's what the housing number looks like. it did tick down at 5.3. it's high and hasn't picked up the decline that's been in market rents. showing like 2% to 3% annually. julia pollack, it's time for the fed to declare mission accomplished. stop fighting the economy and turn to the employment part of its monday date.

the inflation numbers could be receding now and the data on real economic activity forefront on the minds of the fed and investors. sara, maybe we could take off october. we haven't done it in four years. maybe we could do it. >> now, the jobs reports, that we don't caktake off anyway. thank you, steve. steve liesman. our next guest thinks the fed should have cut rates at the last meeting. allen blinder, he joins us now. the question is, if they were late, and it's hard to know that, should they go more now? and i think today's inflation report, they are sticking inflation. not sure it's suggested they should do a double or emergency cover, does it? >> i don't think so. i think an emergency cut -- it's

not warranted by the data. it's not like the economy is in a nose dive or anything. it's in quite good shape. it would suggest panic at the federal reserve. i don't know why they would want to give a false signal, that they were panicky. i think they are a little bit late. but i would emphasize a little bit late. if i had my druthers, which i don't, they would have 25 basis points in the july meeting. they wouldn't do that. they are going to deliver it pretty soon, i think. there is the possibility that the economy gets a lot worse between now and september. i don't think so. they don't think so. maybe it could happen. in which case, they should deliver more. if that's not the case, which is the forecast of most people, 45 basis points in september, with an indication there's more to come. i should add that. that's important. it would do fine.

>> september 6th, shaping up to be a key day. that's the august employment report. it happens before the september fed meeting. so, what's your best guess as to whether they vote 25 or 50 in september? >> my best guess now is 25. that employment report, looks lo lousy. it could happen. maybe they do 50. basing on what the market is likely to come out of the labor department then. >> what indications do you have about how fast the economy is turning or softening? and whether we're going into, perhaps, a deeper slump than the fed or the consensus expects? that includes weekly claims that are not sending out the stress

signals. and second daarily, we watch, i watch, the consumer. steve mentioned retail sales. that's a good part of consumer spending. and if the consumer starts losing steam, if consumer spending starts losing steam, the economy is going to lose steam right behind it. so far not. consumers are simmering down from the blistering pace that we've become accustomed to, since the hyper recovery of the depths of the pandemic recession. we're not moving at that pace. we're moving consumer spending. moving at a pretty good pace. >> do you worry about the parts of the inflation basket that are sticky? we keep talking about the shelter. people think it's lagging. the auto insurance.

rates and energy this month. we're seeing oil prices move up. >> the energy has been very good. there are ups and downs for sure. there will be more. and who in the world knows what's going to happen in the ukraine, now ukraine/russia theater of war, not to mention the middle east. there's unpredictable hazards there. auto insurance, that's getting a lot of attention. you compare that to owner-occupied rent, it's trivial. if the owner-occupied rent, is a big hunk of the price index. it's a big piece of most people's budgets. that bears watching. most of the economists have been expecting the inflation rate, of that particular component to trail down more than it has. the graphic you put up shows it has trailed down. very slowly. >> finally, alan, a couple nice

clums on the take today, looking at commodities. and the impact of favorable weather on the price of corn and beans and wheat and rice. i wonder, i mean, what you make of those potential headaches. sometimes it's good to get a little lucky. >> it is. i'm glad you mentioned that. one of the reasons, a main reason when economists look at inflation, we look at core, which excludes energy, that they were asking about, and food. in the case of food, it's the weather. just weather. the growing and harvesting and so on and so forth, leads to lower food prices. bad weather leads to high food prices. there's not anything that any central bank can do about that. you swallow it. when it's good news, you smile. bad news, you frown. that's all you can do about it. as a result of that, i always had the view, and a lot of

people, but not all, that you should more or less ignore that than make monetary policy. it's not a piece of the inflation picture. >> i wonder if it's be careful what you wish for. 100 on the year. 200 until next august. would something have to go worse with the economy for that to come to fruition? >> not much worse. a little bit. markets overreact. you're on the air all the time watching it in real-time. it's a rare event, when markets don't react. too much, relative to underlying fundamentals. many years ago, i coined the blind over speculative markets. the markets get the direction and drive the magnitude of the factor between three and ten.

when it's not, the market is going combustible. still an overreaction. but it's part of the -- it's hitting par, the latest gains. >> alan blinder, good to have you here for cpi. former vice chair of the fed. when we come back, d.c. versus google. two government agencies take aim at the search git.an we'll talk about details in a minute. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

will the precious medals trade continue to shine this year? we talk to a futures trader that thinks they are set for another leg higher. find out why and what strategies we'll use. tune in later today on "power lunch," 2:00 p.m., eastern time.

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the justice department reportedly weighing a bid to break up google. it's the biggest push to dismantle a company since microsoft, that was two decades ago. joining us mizell thompson. what chance do you think there is, and explain to our viewers if you can -- that company will get broken up? >> i think it's a rare remedy. it's a very extreme remedy. one of the challenges here, we're looking at forward-looking remedies here. this is not an instance where you had -- they were looking at consumer harm. they were looking at harm of competition. so, the market and innovation is moving much faster than the course. you have the net phase, which is going to be the penalty phase. that could take quite a long

time. i'm talking about years. it took four years to get to this stage. at the same time, we have an appeal, google is appealing this, to the court of appeals. and who knows how long that's going to take and what it's going to look like. when you're looking at potential structural remedremedies, it co be, like, i've seen articles talking about maybe you should break up google. you should separate android and chrome. it's hard sometimes that you might have unforeseen consequences. it may not do what you want it to do. they're working under time constraint here. a.i. is out there. and many believe that a.i. integration will make a lot of this stuff moot because a.i. integration may actually make the power of search engines less relevant. >> yeah. yeah. i mean, obviously, a.i. is a huge -- in the early stages of a

potential revolution that could, as you say, grasp the change of business models for so many companies. all of that said, and even given years to come yet from the remedy and appeals, do you have an expectation as to whether anything will occur here, in terms of curving what is being viewed as obnoxious behavior. they're going to address the direct concerns of the court. the exclusivity arrangements. the ties between google and these other companies, to exclusively list their browser and to prefer that over competing browsers. that's the first thing that's going to happen. that's going to have a significant impact on the bottom line of google for those tie-in agreements. at the same time, i'm curious to see whether there's going to be

a push to have more inter operableability of what google does with their ad platform and other ad -- people in the ad space. i think it will be harder to do mechanically, and it will be harder to see what the end result will be. that will take longer. >> >> so, on the time frame, i mean, this is obviously a years-long process. i know we have the september 4th decision,september 6th hearing on what to do next, on some sort of resolution, but how does the election factor in, a potentially new department of justice? >> well, don't forget this case was originally brought under the trump department of justice, and it's taken this long to get this far. now you have two things that are going to happen. no matter what happens, the department of justice is going to change. and either there's going to be a new administration, a new president, no matter what, and

so it really -- i hope to see what their vision is for the future of innovation. i have seen some articles talking about, this is an anne-trust is being used to -- as a way to get to industrial policy. but it seems sort of like a back door way of doing it. if you want to have a change in industrial policy, for example, more like the european regulatory model, then it needs more discussion, and a broader-based discussion. so i have not heard anything from either campaign about what they're going to do in that direction. >> yeah, mozel, lots still to come. i'm sure we'll be talking about it again. thanks for your time today. >> great to talk to you, david. still to come on the show, interest rates hitting their lowest levels in over a year and mortgage refinancing is suinrgg. what it means for the home builders, after a quick break.

some big moves when it comes to the housing sector, as rates hit some recent lows. let's get to our diana olick and talk at least about some of those refi applications, diana. >> it was huge. it took a few weeks for homeowners to jump on these new

lower rates, but they did last week. applications to refinance a home loan surged 35% compared to the previous week according to the mortgage bankers' association. they were up a whopping 118% compared with the same week one year ago, the strongest week since may of 2022, when rates were much lower back then. this came even though the average rate on the 30-year fixed fell only very slightly last week to 6.54. while rates dropped that one basis point last week, they were down 34 basis points in the last four weeks, and down 62 basis points from the same week a year ago. applications for a mortgage to buy a home rose just 3% for the week, and were still 8% lower than the same week a year ago. today's home buyers are dealing with a lot more than high interest rates. they're up against high home prices and low supply. and there's a feeling out there among some buyers that mortgage rates may fall even lower, so

they're waiting before making such a large purpose. rates started this week essentially flat and will likely stay that way today. there was a lot of anticipation about the cpi, but since it came in right along expectations, we're not seeing big moves in bond yields, which mortgage rates loosely follow. back to you guys. >> so the refinancing activity is picking up. what about the buying activity? >> like i said, it was only up just 3% week-to-week, and it's still down year over year because of all of these hurdles that home buyers are facing. and some of them are waiting to see if rate will still go lower. affordability is still really challenged, because prices are not easing up. in a couple of markets, like austin and florida, some prices are coming back, but nationwide, not really. >> there's got to be a lot of pent-up demand, diana, people sitting on the sidelines waiting, as their lives change, waiting for lower interest rates? >> absolutely. if you get closer to the 6% range, you'll see a slew of

pent-up demand come back to the market. it is out there. >> diana, thank you. as for our broader market, a mixed picture. the nasdaq down 1.25%. the s&p barely in positive territory, as you see right there. not particularly notable movers, tesla is down about 3%, nvidia shares continue to move higher, though muted gains now versus what we saw at the open. ntuericora rket vege ntuericora rket vege coins ght after this do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. . at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. investment professionals know the importance of keeping their clients on track.

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good wednesday morning. welcome to "money overs." i'm sarahize ann with carl quintanilla live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. today, it's all about deals. first up, the biggest deal of the year, mars to take pringle maker kellanova private in a deal valued at $6 billion. >> tilray is expanding its beverage portfolio, striking a deal for four of molson coors' craft breweries. the ceo is going to join us. >> and deal finder and cashback app ibotta falling today on a wider than expected loss. the ce