gains concentrated in tech stocks. it's one of the world's largest investments in more than 7800 country over 70 countries around the world. they've got about 6 million people. >> they have trillions. we need a sovereign wealth fund as well. that's the point of this. we could invest in all of our snacks. "closing bell" starts right now. thanks very much. i'm scott wapner from post 9. this make-or-break hour begins. we'll ask jeremy siegel in just a moment when he joins me live. we could wait for that conversation today. in the meantime, the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. another favorable inflation read. the dow back above 40,000, and it is holding there, right around the highs of the days,

too. tech was briefly leading, but there's been a bit of a selling. financials the top group out of s&p. we'll watch that closely, too. that takes us to our talk of the tape, whether its time to add stocks, as that trade gets more attractive. jan hatze, nice to do you. good to see you, scott. >> we're good on this front, now we have to get our sights on the labor market, make sure that hangs in. >> that's right. we get 14 basis points for core pce our baseline is 125 basis

points. if you see a stronger report that we got a week and a half ago, no further increase in the unemployment rate and, you know, claims consolidating in the sort of 230,000 range or so, yeah, i think that could give you 25, but 50 is possible. >> what happened a week ago monday? a pagetic attack on the economy? was it overdone? are we making too much about one relatively soft employment number that wasn't that soft? >> it was that soft. we did think it warranted increasing our risk of recession somewhat. we moved from 15% to 25% over the next 12 months, but at the same time it is only one number, 25% is still not a high number. it's below consensus. continued expansion is still significantly likely. obviously, there have been some

large surprises, large moves. we had a bank of japan rate hike the week before. but as far as the economy is concerned, most of the news, i think is still very encouraging, but that one jobs number forced you to raise your recession projection from 15 to 25. it moved the needle enough in your mind that now you're on alert? no. we're always on alert, obviously. for surprises. >> that gets people noticing, you know, now you think there's a 25% chance we could go into recession, where people think the economy is relatively strong it's not like we added a shanful. >> there's always a risk of

recession. 0.9 person points, historically that's a strong predictor of resection, but again, i wouldn't put that much wait on it. then what thereafter? how many this year and by how much? >> a series of cuts, and then probably continued cuts in 2025, though there are, of course, a lot of unsend about what happens in 2025. what happened in the presidential elen, what happens in congress. there's no longer a need for a

five handle on the funds rate, probably will end up in the 3s rather than the 4s they're too restrict inning now, right? >> we think so. everybody that happened since the july meeting that is strengthened that view. we wrote a people titled, why wait in the run-up to the meeting? i think they need to get going. they there get going and probably move an consecutive meeting. can they afford to wait? >> yes, i think so. i think the size of the initial cut is not the most important thing, what is important is the pall, so the dot plot will be

almost as important as the move itself. they need to signal that we're normalizing policy. >> when you hear people lie jeremy siegel suggests in the throes of this market upset a week or so, they need to do something in an emergency fashion, your response was what? even richard fisher suggested i don't know that they need to do anything today, but chair powell better have remarks in his back pocket in case he needs to say something. our index obviously tight eened

but a week add it was ease engineer, so it was still mildly positive, so, yes, of course, you should never say never jan hatzius, thank you for being here with us. let's welcome in professor siegle. >> thank you, scott. >> you, of course. headlines, and then some. we were worried about the economy, we were worried about the unwind of the carry trade. for all of our sakes, let's revisit this.

>> i'm calling for an emergency cut rate, with another 57 basis point cut indicated for next month at the september meeting, and that's minimum. >> i think it came off that i thought the economy was falling apart, which i didn't. i didn't want powell to make the same mistakes on the way down as he made on the way up. jan is right. we're just about at balanced

risks. they're all pointing to four or less. now, yes, to do an emergency cut is out of the normal procedures of the fed i am saying with risks balanced, why are we at the lower rate. i think the risks are fully two-sided, why aren't we down? >> i think we have all been

there in life. i would have stated it differently now, saying, lynn, we should by down in the 4%. which, by the way, i think they generally act way too slow, but i i'm just say that when i look at the risk today, i see very little, if any inflation risk, if there is risk, it's on the down side, and i ask why have we

not moved one basis point are you priced, like many others are, are -- the dow is back above 40,000 for cryin' out loud we searched guy great isms, and the jobless climbs rising and ryes. and i begin to get worked, and it was, and then it fell below. that does surprise me, so you can heave a sigh of relief. let me put it this way, scott

that doesn't mean the fed should say 5 third they have come on the that they don't have the lag effects, and when you plug those in, believe it or not, you are add or even below the 2% level if you put in those new indexes. given all of that, i'm just say don't -- the risks are on the other side.

>> some say we've gone all way back, and it's just too fast. it just creates a dang are you point to raleigh back so much. that's sort of the point of rick reider, who was here with me yesterday, who bullish on the sell-off, same i'm finding opportunity, but ideas he came on and said, tap the brakes. let's listen to that, and you can react on the other side. i think they valuations have gotten call the up the second happen of the year. so, yeah, i like de-risking a bit at this point in time. >> that's rick reider, look, i like equities as much as anybody else, but this is kind of uncomfortable. >> right, and not unusual.

obvious towards the end of a bull market -- i'm not saying this is the end, but you get a break, and then, you know, everyone said, oh, the end is here, you get a bounce back, but you don't brea the previous highs. for technicians, i think that is a key. you get a sharp bounce back, but don't break to new highs, and then the weight of whatever is on the economy -- i agree with rick, there's a lot of uncertainly going forward, not the least of which our political unseverities we all know the trump tax cuts are inspire.

it doesn't looks like that's being -- i'm just saying there are risks we should be cognizant of, and i think the fed moo also be cognizant when they take a look at the economic developments. >> i've also had some suggest that the first rate cut should actually be sold, and not ball. >> that doesn't mean that the fed can't be wrong.

they were very wrong on the inflation side going up. we all know that. it's acknowledged that. we know -- i've been watching the fed for, what, half a century. jay powell is the most deliberate of all fed chairs, in the sense he has to tee it up, he gets everyone too agree before he timely moves forward in a fast-moving economy, that slow movement could in fact spell poor or bad policy that hurts the economy. i don't want that to happen over the next 6, 12 months. we only have a few months left in this year, right? less than a handful, obviously. what makes sense for you, then, for what you think the s&p can do, know all that lies ahead.

we have expected rate cuts, more reads on the economy. >> there's a lot of -- i think a lot of choppiness. listen. the long-return average return on the market is, what, 8%, 9% on the s&p. we're already above that. given the uncertainties, i would be surprised we could double that, even with rates going down. one of the reasons for the snap back, you know, we're on a three handle on the ten-year rate. that helps all going forward. a lot of that is because rates been going down.

>> we have nvidia looming on august 28th. how do you feel about mechanic acap here, and how consequential do you think it will be? >> i think the question in the back of everyone's mind is, is ai all that it is hyped up to be? if that narrative gets going and earnings don't keep on breaking records, we could see more of a correction there. >> professor, i appreciate it as

always. we'll see you soon. >> thank you, scott. >> professor jeremy siegel. let's send it over to steve kovach. >> yeah, shares of carter health up better than 3% following the earnings. it beat wall street expectations on the top and bottom lines. on revenues of nearly $60 billion. shares of victoria secret also surging after naming a new ceo she start on september 8th. victoria secret provided early quarterly earnings coming in above its guidance. thanks. up next, fed cuts are fast approaching. two stop strategists are standing by. standing by. you're watchin

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1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. i'm just saying, when i look at the risks today, i see very little, if any, inflation risk. if there is risk, it's on the down side and i ask myself, why have we not moved one basis point? >> that was wharton professor jeremy siegel just moments ago. joining me is dan greenhaus, and step stephanie link. dan, i'll give you the first crack. his words came out differently

than monday morning a week ago, and he said they should do 75 basis points, sticking to his points that the fed is too restrictive now, and they need to cut. >> sure. as jan laid out in the previous instance, that 5 3/8 is probably too hoof, and the same can be true with the panic in the market, emphasized by jeremy siegel calling for an addition alternate 75 basis points, there were some people that were quite hyperbolic, but the rates are too high, and calling for that rate cut was a bit hyperbolic. >> stef, we're pretty much at

that level as we speak. an unbelievable comeback, but now what? [ laughter ] >> well, i think the volatility is here to stay, especially in the next two months. we are at the seasonally weakest period of the year, but scott, you have to just back up. last monday was the yen carry trade. it was not a cried problem. the economy is city growing. is it 2.9? maybe not. ism services is a huge part of our our economy when you're putting up better than expected earnings, there's no reason for emergency uss. between now and the end of the year, the 25 or 50 in september

will all depend on the lake market. so let's watch the lake mark, the four-week moves average is at 240,000. i remind all the listeners, 350 to 375,000 is recessionary. i understand and appreciate we have seen a gradual increase, but it's certainly not in a dire situation for a lot more cuts than, you know, 50 at the most in sentence. >> i think hatzius said -- just so we're on the same page. >> okay. a buyer here or a trim are of the market. rick reider making the point yesterday his view had changed on that question just simply because of the comeback. listen, probably closer to rick.

the economy is not we're going tore walmart tomorrow. >> so there's other data that will help color this in. so there's nothing to suggest an economy collapsing. with that said, and to touch a bit on what rick got at, we are here that day having this larger conversation, you can hear the case that it feels top heavy again, and there's better opportunities to be realized. with the caveat, of course, that argument that is not come to fruitions. >> you've been more of a buyer

and a seller. and, you know, last week, you added to eaton and lamb, energy group, truist, amazon, crowdstrike as a new position. juxtapose that versus what rick reider is saying, this is a bit uncomfortable and now we're talking about top-heavy. we just got guidance from

these companies. they beet and raised, had decent things to talk about in terms of the overall environment, including brian moynihanstocks sold off not because of a credit problem. if it was a credit problem, it might have been a different story, in my book. >> sure, but i could find 15 different earnings report, right? there are many in the travel space, all around the consumer which point to a tapped-out consumer, a slowing consumer, and that seems to be undoubtedly the case, which is why this week

they seem so critical. >> we do have lower interest rates. we still have jobs just wait, and then rule see pent-up demand in housing. if you reify, the consumer will have more money in their pocket. i'm not saying it's all perfect, but those companies i bought didn't have anything to say there's a mean reserious, and i think you're just seeing, simply put, a mean reversion, but not

hardly a disaster. >> to that point, and i agree with what stephanie says, but i want to push back on the consumer. costco, double the revenue of a target, and costco is putting up same-store scales in the mid single dix chipotle upper relative to mcdonald's. there's clearly something going on at the low end, but i reject that they're tapped out or slowing per se. the economy is a little slower, but in both respects nothing -- and just to reiterate, yen, we can all pick and choose, x and y, but when you look at the

preponderance of the data, earnings season went pretty well. thank you both so much. up next jeff degraph is highghnghaheliti wt says in the three most important things to watch in the market. we're bag after the break.

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gaining even more distance from the lows set during was week. here to share what the charts are telling him is head of technical research, jeff degraaf. good to see you. what chard stands out to you in the here and now, more than anything else? >> oh, good question. probably of most interest to your listeners would be tech, and the relative performance in the really only one tick away from you for the criteria so, i

think that one is pretty important. if we want to be timely, the s&p right here, bouncing back into it resistance level, what's essentially 5450 is a pretty key le level. >> what do you do as a chartist -- i hope you don't mind that title -- but i'm suric have made the case at the depths of the monday sell-off and 9 charts would have looked horrific, leaving you to the view, we reached this and that, and we could go down to something. how much faith should i put in the charts if in that case it maeve told you something that didn't really exist.

>> i know when you're going with it. >> i'm going somewhere. >> keep in mind, and i think this is important, right? the levels are less important than the dynamics by most measures, we're in an oversold condition. as long as you're in a up trend, those are buyable. we might get it wrong with a few 10s to 20s in terms of points, for sure, but getting in the zip code is what we're trying to do. that's pretty clear and evident last week.

i would say the things that concern merit, scott, different from where we were two months ago, is the yen carry trade and the trots with that. in the near term, a lot of that was put back on sides but this trade isn't a new phenomenon, so a lot of the financing that's happened globally has worked its way through the system we're seeing cracks, it looks like bitcoin is cracking. that's nothing, for our

purposes, anyway s. surrogates of liquidity, so we're seeing that liquidity at the margin start to deteriorate. that's what makes us more nervous. we're sellers of this overbought can this, because we think there's more backing and filling. we think there's more testing that's likely to happen, particularly given this point in the calendar. all within an up trend, but with that, more assessments as we'll go. the other thing to know, is the spread between the fed funds rate and the two-year treasury is about 15 base points. that's a huge number, and usually what it means is the fed is very much behind the curve. i think we are seeing these liquid contractions take place, other residuals, or what we saw symptoms of liquid, and i think that's important where we are

right now. the market has priced a lot in. lastly, and quickly, the idea oversold versus overbought, what is make some uncomfortable is tech may have looked like it was oversold, but it's come back so quickly, now it looks overbought, because it's too much to fast. that's what they say. what do you say? >> i don't worry about too much too fast, but we look at how much volume is driving it, what are the characteristics. i don't worry about the rate of change in most instances a high rate of change is good news, not bad. i worry more we had sentiment extremes. we talked about that at the beginning of the summer, and some yak in these names. we're coming back up to the 50-day average, and i think we're putting in a large consolidation, so, for me, that's the bigger issue, that we

probably have to consolidate and these are going to stall out here. i think that will be the bigger problem. they're probably buyable sometime in october, but probably here you're better off being a seller than a buyer. >> my chartist comment was a compliment. >> i'm sure it was. >> i don't know if it came out that way, but that's how it was meant. thanks, jeff. let's get to eamon javers. this information coming to you from google. a bit more information on this attempted hack by apparent iranian actors into officials with the bide everyone and trump campaigns. google putting on the -- their threat analysis group has stopped a number of these gmail accounts associated with the campaigns. we're getting more details on what the phishing e-mails looked like, google saying in a number

of cases they're imitating real gerut buy the washington group for near-east policy, for the study of war, those sources of things, and then pinging officials between foreign policy, defense and the presidential campaigns to see if they will click on those links, this targeted about a dozens people. they blocked numerous attempts by this group, which they're calling apt 42, which is the iranian national guard corps. google also saying that apt 42, the iranians, did gain access of a e-mail account for one high-profile consultant. up next, we track the biggest movers in the close. what do you see that? >> i hope you're hungry. we have everything from waffles

to baby back ribs making moves today. we'll show you when "closing bell" come back, right after this.

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a company spun out of kellogg's last year. and brinker international falling about 10% on weak guidance for the full year, on top of some disappointing quarterly earnings result. kevin hochman will be on "mad money" tonight with jim cramer. "b" is for breakup. alphabet is dealing with a possible breakup/intervention, after the break.

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rally needs to be picked up by resumption of the up trend because relief rally up 4% up to the 50-day average essentially back to the level of the jobs report and this is where we are and by the way, also where we have the volatility index and it's down another point and a half-plus today and i was just seeing some numbers and it's the fastest drop from the close above 35 to below 17 in history. so the depth and severity and speed of that little panic we had has been extraordinary and has had its effect. what i mean by that is the patient's gone from critical condition to serious to now stable, and by stable it's balanced. >> stable? discharged. >> well, almost, and we are almost back to normal in the sense that breadth is kind of unimpressive and yet the s&p's doing fine, and you have a little bit more of the reliance on the very large stocks which has protected the market over time. i guess the point i would keep

emphasizing is at the highs, up 4% from here it's pretty demanding. the conditions that got you there are relatively pristine, and you know, could we just get there because the big-caps decide to be defensive again and run? sure. absolutely, but i still think that you will need a lot more assurance on the soft landing case, the fed moving for the right reasons at the right time and everything else holding together, but you know, look, it's a bull market. it always was and i'm just a little surprised at how quickly we've gotten back to this point. >> you and so many other people, too. speaking of big caps and d. bosa, what's the story? >> the story is that the doj is suggesting remedies to the court, the judge that decided that google is running in a legal monopoly in terms of the search business and the word breakup has been raised. that is what they'll be asking the judge to consider and this comes after it is made by a google, vent where it show cased

the latest hardware and on display was the i wntegration a it makes it such a powerful competitor in ai and the idea that a breakup could be on the table could spook investors because everything works so seamlessly together and google will be the first to market to get ai into people's pockets on their devices. >> good point. down a couple of percent. thank you. >> to seema mody and what to expect in overtime. >> even though it's not a favored ai play it's continuing to invest in artificial intelience and data centers. morgan stanley expects demand to remain muted and the questions of acquisition of splunk to get some attention as well as efforts to streamline costs and rumors of additional job cuts with loss of market share from juniper networks and arista, shares of sisco have underperformed down 10% versus the s&p tech sectors and a 23%

rise and don't miss an exclusive interview with ceo chuck robbins on squawk on the street tomorrow. now we await the numbers, scott. >> we do. we look forward to those and the interview, seema, thanks so much. we turn it back to mike santoli. now it's about the economy, retail and jobless claims and walmart. >> retail sales, of course, is very important, but i think it is very much internalized among investors that july was pretty soft on the consumer side so to me it's pretty tough for that to surprise in a meaningful way to the down side that has a market impact and what walmart says about the economy if it's rough, sometimes it's to the benefit of walmart, but jobless claims, i think exactly whether we're inflecting higher or not, unemployment rate is now very much the benchmark of how we feel about the economy as opposed to inflation which is essentially taken care of. >> i'll be urprised, to be quite honest with you, if

walmart comes out and has great things to see a month ago their cfo was at a conference and made reasonably -- [ inaudible ] [ closing bell ringing ] >> i look forward to seeing you tomorrow. we go out with 40,000 on the dow in overtime. that's standard regulation hannifin ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange and the dow jumping and pulling back after a cooler inflation trend shows growth falling for the first time since 2021 and that is the scorecard on wall street, but the action is just getting started. >> welcome to "closing bell overtime," margaret brennan has the day off.