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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 14, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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sights, if not out all together. >> and that sort of gets back to what claudia was saying earlier in the hour, when you look at labor market dynamics, it's an increase in supply, which just bolsters the fed case to cut come september. >> exactly. it all moves in a similar direction, yeah. >> all right, mike, thank you. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. break it up. shares of alphabet hit hard as the doj signals they may push to pull apart google to address its search monopoly. could this really happen? what would a breakup look like? how could that impact the tech giant's business? we have a deep dive coming up. plus, chocolate meet cheez-it. the nearly $30 billion deal mars just inked for kela nova. will it spark a wave of other tieups in the food space? and waiting on walmart. cisco beating expectations.
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and psychedelic fears from high hopes about treatment uses to mounting concerns over major research studies, the potential road blocks facing that industry. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- steve grasso, karen finerman, bonawyn eison, and guy adami. contessa brewer has more on ulta and nike. >> yeah, we're receiving ulta climbing after berkshire hathaway reviewed they added 690,000 shares. and pershing square revealed a new stake in nike. 3 million shares. consumer discretionary getting a little love here, melissa. >> contessa, thank you. contessa brewer. these are consumer discretionary stocks we talk about a lot. there can be similarities, maybe drawn to a starbucks situation
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where these were great brands, declining a little bit. >> yes. >> under pressure. >> although -- well, yes, for nike and having some of the same global issues, as well. the ulta one, to me, was more interesting. if you look, these -- this is a 13 13f, and from june 30. ulta closed at $329 today. if they liked it there, they probably like it here. so, ulta's stumbled a bit. the valuation is really low. they report shortly, i forget the date, but they've had same-store sales that have been a little bit anemic and we saw elf that really missed, and that traded poorly and ulta was down with that. and this is at the same time that se fphora is doing very we. very happy to have warren there. >> august 29th, after the bell, is when they report. i mean, the stock, this is a --
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again, not that it matters, it was a $520 stock or so in february. fell on hard times. a lot of it on competition, slowdown in the consumer, but valuation is compelling. definitely here. and it is interesting. after they reported, there's a $500 price target on the stock. and they were sort of the outlier. i read it and it's interesting, maybe they're seeing the same things that maybe warren buffett is seeing. buying back stock, which is not insign insignificant. as much as i don't like chasing things into these announcements, this is one that makes a little bit of sense. >> what do you think of nike? >> you know, listen, i own it. i bought it much higher. i really thought that a lot of their issues were behind them, or at least priced into the stock. then you look at short interest, i think it's around 1.5%, 2%. i don't think shorts are really leaning in here. i really think the worst case scenario has been priced in and i wouldn't be surprised -- in fact, oom not surprised to see
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smart money buying it. what you see is a market look to chase outperformance, and you've seen that rotation into some of the small caps and i think this is more of a speculative situation where you're able to kind of get into a laggard and look to generate off of. >> i bought nike when it fell from that 93 spot, i thought it was overdone. i bought it ahead of the olympics, figuring it would be the free advertisement. it went from a bottom fish to a losing trade to now, i have my head above water. my biggest thing is when do i exit this trade now? >> you're made whole now, so -- >> yeah, getting back to even, is that great? i'm up 10% in the position now. and i think i should probably trim, to be honest with you. >> the longer term outlook, though, i mean, if you believe that a starbucks can be turned around, maybe you are a believer that nike could be turned around. >> wouldn't it be easy if brian niccol went to nike? >> at the same time! >> no. i think, i owned it too. i thought a lot of the, you know, the bad news was behind
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it. to me, a very similar story to lululemon, the once absolutely behemoth, did everything right for years, and then lost their way and found themselves in real competition here with on and hoka. still like it. let's turn to the straw that may have broken google's back. shares of alphabet sinking 4% today after news that the justice department is considering forcing a breakup of the tech giant. it's not the first time the company has found itself in the cross hairs of the u.s. government, but usually the stock seems to shrug off the threat. so, why not this time around? let's get more details from eamon javers. >> hey, melissa. there have been a number of media reports that a breakup of the company could be on the table, and that is literally true, because at this stage of the process by definition, all options are in play. but the real question is whether the department of justice is willing to go that far in its request to the quart, and whether the judge in this case on it thinks that's the best
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solution. the justice department was asked about this issue of a remedy on "squawk box" yesterday. he was careful not to tip his hand, but maybe if you parse this really closely, you might hear him suggesting maybe that he prefers to go big or go home. take a listen to what he said. >> that case, u.s. v google, was the first monopolization case. not just major, but the first litigated since u.s. v mic microsoft. the cases don't come very often, and when they do, they are quite large and big. >> so, you heard what he said there. now, the department of justice has two active cases against google right now. the other one focuses on ad sales domination in the marketplace and is expected to go to trial in september. if the doj does push for a big breakup, that would be something that we haven't seen since all the way back in 1982 when the government broke up the bell telephone nationwide. and melissa, we may be getting a
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little ahead of ourselves to speculate on this, but i do wonder how wall street would value the baby googles in a breakup scenario, would that unlock additional market value? a report was flagged from jeffries that suggested that the sum of the parts analysis of google indicates a total market cap for all the various parts of the company might be well above the company's current market cap, so, you know, if you get all those baby googles out there, are they worth more to investors than just google on its own? >> yeah. eamon, thank you. eamon javers. meantime, there's this dig from former google ceo eric schmidt. speaking about the company's current work culture. >> google decided that work/life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning. and the startups, the reason startups work is because the people work like hell. >> so, possibly a huge doj issue
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hanging over it, possibly a culture issue, maybe putting it behind in the a.i. race here. what do you make of this -- >> well, i go back to, eamon just said, jeffries said the breakup value. and that's 100% right. you look over history, three, four situations where that happened, the best thing that happened to shareholders was something like this. i don't know who they're trying to punish. maybe if they want to try to punish google, they fine them some ridiculous amount. maybe that's more of a fine than breaking them up. i'm not really sure it's going to happen and not sure why it should. with that said, and i think karen would agree with this, google, out of all the names we talk about, still has the biggest moat and the most interesting in terms of valuation. >> how do you look at that? sum of the parts, it's an interesting exercise. a lot of analysts do that. but it never gets tested because you are never breaking up the parts. >> right. >> and here we are -- >> and here we are, doing it anyway, yeah. >> but the stock went down. >> yeah. i don't know exactly why the
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stock went down. i think there's -- what -- i'm not quite sure how to figure out in the sum of the parts is what's coming next, that -- that lawsuit, which i actually think is problematic, as well. and this makes me think, why fashion a breakup when you might have some other really relevant information, which is what happened in that suit. so, i kind of think that we will get bored with this story shortly and that we'll go back to the thing that will drive google in the short-term, is, how is google doing as a business? and how is -- you know, cloud still on track and -- >> and a.i., though? i mean -- >> oh, for the fumbling a.i. part? >> well, no, i mean, in terms of the a.i. race. we're talking about traditional search in terms of the monopoly status that google has. >> the threat to google's underlying business. >> but they're moving on. i mean, we're focused on a.i. search in terms of thevaluation of the company going forward, right? that's where the hopes and
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dreams are of all the investors, and that's -- that's an open playing field, i mean, that's the perception of the market, that there is no lock that anybody has on a.i. search. it's a free for all. >> i don't really agree with that. >> you don't think that? >> i think -- >> you know, this company's behind, this company has another product -- >> and they have bumbled it, to karen's point, and this was supposed to be the year where they actually got credit for the a.i. component to it. but i think the stock is down because i don't believe that the market believes it will get broken up. if we went around the table, i'm more bullish if it gets broken up. you would be, too, i would assume. >> status quo means it's down 3%? >> status quo means it's down 3% because you're not going to get the quote unquote sum of the parts, and when you look at the doj has had at apple already, it's probably having at amazon already, they don't believe they're going to break up all of them ultimately, so you don't
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see those getting effected, or they would all be down. >> what do you think? >> i think it's overhang from the unknown. this is probably going to be three to five years in the making in terms of, like what the resolution is ultimately going to be. they're clearly going to appeal. they've come out and said as much. we just don't know. and i think we've seen volatility spike in the market and retrace quite a bit, but i think they're being punished because you don't know. you've seen a similar situation, though it's not to the same extent at all, with crowdstrike. there's this overhang. speculating, sure, but 3%, we're talking about a 3% move in google, i think the stock is up 18%, 15% this year. i really don't think -- >> if the market thought that they were going to be broken up, the stock would be up 10%. >> you think so? >> yeah. >> huh. for more on whether google breakup could actually happen and what it could mean for the stock, let's bring in gene munster. gene, so, what do you think, if there were announcement tomorrow that google would be broken up, what would the shares do? >> i think i'm leaning with
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steve on this. i think it's up probably 5% plus. i think this could unlock 20% of value, put the probability at low, call it 15%, that this ultimately, some variation of this happens, but to answer your question, is that i think the sum of the parts do unlock value here. this exercise is a well-traveled road, as you mentioned, and typically, we, with a company like this, i think that it's important to recognize that when things do get broken up, there's going to be a lot of agreements that will be quickly put in place that would be probably -- infuriate regulators, but the substance of how google functions would remain relatively unchanged, but again, this would unlock value. >> what do you think is the most likely scenario, in terms of how the broken up google would look, and if you could sort of overlap that with what is the format in which google will be optimized as a broken-up company?
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>> most likely scenario is they break out their ad network. it's the ugly piece of the business. it's 11% of revenue. it's been declining, this is kind of falls below the fold, but this has long been rumored by regulators to get broken out. for those of you following google a long time this is the old double click business, and so, ultimately, i think that was not as part of the reports today, it was related to chrome and android getting broken out. i don't know how they would do that. but i think 15% probability that i put on some form of a breakup would be related to that ad network business. and it gives regulators some sort of a victory. and ultimately, i think investor central question, melissa, you talked about a.i., but specifically, where does gemini fall in a potential breakup? and most likely that goes with the search business, which is where, call it more than half the value is today. >> gene, while you were waiting in the wings, you heard that
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clip we played, what do you make of that comment that -- i'm paraphrasing, but they're tired of winning, or, they're not winning anymore, that whole point about people not being in the workplace, thoughts on that and the culture around google? >> first, it's true. i think that not only is he saying it, but other people, sundar said that a couple quarters ago, said they've just kind of lost some of their fire, and that was part of some of these layoffs that we saw a lot of tech companies going through. google cut about 12% of their work force, and so -- i think that is true, i think that ultimately, that's one of the ironic benefits of a breakup is it just creates some urgency around the different businesses. and when you are part of such a big company, it's easy to get complacent. meta's done a great job of invigorating their culture, and i think google still has a long way to go. we own google, we think it's the best. positioned company, related to a.i., but we wish there was more urgency around that kind of
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spirit to win. >> gene, it's karen. you sort of half answered it with meta, it sounds like meta sort of felt a fire under them. do you think that the dynamic that eric schmidt was talking about is more broad than just alp alphabet? >> i mean, more broad in the sense of just kind of across tech in general? >> yeah. >> i think -- google set a culture. they were the original company that you would go in in the afternoon and there would be literally, like, these tents set up and people would be eating sushi in the tents, i mean, it was kind of a cultural revolution that happened, that i think captured a lot of tech, and so, i think that we've seen that, i think this round of layoffs that we saw over the past couple years has changed some of that, but in general, i think that there is, i think, among some of the big tech companies, there just isn't that same fire. of course related to venture and the startup culture, it's very different. they live in the office, this is
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something different. and that's the magic, i think, of what these companies need to do, is, you know, break off different groups that still have that startup mentality that really want to win. >> well, it sounds like it would be a win-win. you would unlock value, you would reignite that sort of entrepreneur culture that it once had, if google did break up. so, wouldn't it be the ultimate jedi mind trick if alphabet announced ahead of any sort of doj proposal that it's going to break up? >> i mean, i would be doing somersaults, i would love that, if they did that. i think that it would do -- accomplish what you just described. i think the probability that that happens is exceptionally low and i'll give you a quick reason why. they shouldn't be paying $50 billion a year in tax. they're going to maintain that search share. they do that pause they can increase that 6% a year to grow their search business by 14% a year. they want to pay that big tack number, because they want an insurance policy. it's part of their culture. i love the idea, melissa.
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of course, it was a low probability, i would put that -- take a trip to the moon be before -- if that does ultimately happen, you can hold me accountable to that. >> okay, we've got the tape. gene, good to see you, thank you. >> thank you. >> gene munster. well, as a shareholder, karen, would you want it to break up? do you -- are you worried about the culture there? >> i am worried about the culture. i do feel they did fumble the a.i. launch, right? and so, that was somewhat disappointing. it's been sort of undervalued for awhile, i think, and it got a little bit of momentum and then sort of lost it, and i do think that -- a lot of what gene is saying, getting that fire, and you're really focused. when you work for a 100,000-plus organization, you feel like you can't make a difference. when you start to work for something smaller, you can. >> right. well, alphabet is dealing with another headache in san francisco.
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speaking of alphabet. [ cars honking ] that is a parking lot filled with yaymo driverless vehicles a couple weeks ago before dawn. residents in area were greeted with a chorus of honks and beeps as the cars moved around this lot. waymo said their vehicles have been programmed to honk if another car or driverless vehicle gets close. the honking, they added, has worked well on the road, but waymo didn't anticipate this would be a problem in parking lots. the company updated the software so that their evs wouldn't be such a nuisance. >> it's what people want, right? they want this world, this dystopian society where you get -- and i saw the video. the woman, she's -- it's 4:30 in the morning. >> why are all these cars honking with their lights on, nobody inside? >> that's why you have to be more like -- there you go. you know how i would handle this. >> get off my lawn. >> capabilitily. that's the nice -- there are other ways.
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coming up, earnings season rolls on. cisco shares on the move. the numbers and details from that quarter next. plus, investors digesting cpi data. what it means for the fed's next rate move, and how you can position ahead of the jackson hole meeting. do not go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.
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well come back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on cisco. seema mody has all the details. >> melissa, green shoouts are starting to emerge. supply chain constraints are receding. steady growth of 14%, and that enterprise customers are upgrading their infrastructure in preparation for a.i. that's prompting cisco to do the same. cisco crossed a billion dollars in a.i. orders with web scale customers to date. three of the four top hyperscalers leverage cisco. he expects an additional $1 billion of a.i. product orderers in 2025. even though it was a good quarter, cisco did announce a 7% reduction to its global work force, over 6,000 jobs. cisco cut 4,000 jobs in fe february. analysts pushed robins on why
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cut jobs now? robins said the company really needs to shift resources to the most important areas that are growing, like a.i. and cloud. and it does follow news of intel cutting more than 15,000 jobs. cisco shares have underperformed big tech so far this year. ceo chuck robbins joins "squawk on the street" tomorrow morning. mel? >> seema, thank you. cisco is relatively undervalued compared to the s&p 500. >> i think it's been defensive from a valuation standpoint, but i think that network revenue number is a bit concerning. and so, you know, i feel like there's a bit of a push and pull here. because essentially, they have done a good job and they deserve credit for shifting into, you know, cloud defense and things of that nature, but i think a 7% workforce reduction tells you perhaps you're not as bullish on growth possibilities. and then add on top of that the concerns that the market is now having about a.i. capex spending. so, i feel like it was a bit of
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a mixed bag. >> remember when cisco used to be the bell bellwether and we wait to see -- >> what john chambers would say about the outlook in enterprise spending. >> they lost -- >> they lost. >> they put baby in the corner. she's not dancing anymore. you get that reference, right? >> no. >> guy does. "dirty dancing." >> she does. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. >> the chart doesn't look great. revenues, to bonawyn's point, don't look great. and when you're laying off people to pay for an idea, that's not a great look, either. so, i think they'll still remain in the corner, it's a show me state now. they haven't shown it. >> maybe it's a value stock waiting to emerge, karen. >> yes, we were talking about this in the green room. 14 was the pe. and i was thinking about what you said, it was an absolute bellwether, not just how they did, but really for the economy writ large. and then the internet darling of
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'99-2000, trading at multiple hundreds times earnings. i wondered when it would be that nvidia -- remember when we used to talk about nvidia? >> yeah. >> i think, one day, that will happen, but there's a lot to happen between then and now. i don't own cisco. not crazy expensive, but i'm just sort of not that interested. >> restructuring to drive efficiencies. this is not the code these companies are using, saying we're getting rid of 5%, 8%, 10% of the work force. now we've seen this across a wide range of industries. right? this is happening before our very eyes. the unemployment rate is going higher, and the market is not pricing any of this in. the quarter was fine. i think the stock's higher on the back of that, not necessarily on the guide. there is a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. >> inflation cooling off. as cpi slows to its lowest level in three years, how investors digested the data, and what it
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could mean as the fed heads to jackson hole next week. plus, a sweet tooth deal. a candy con flom rat scooping up snack food maker kela nova in a cash deal worth nearly $36 billion. more on the m&m m&a, a who else might join forces. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. in times square. we're back right after this. [laughter and giggling] got real serious for a moment. —okay. —whoa! [indistinct chatters] [laughter and giggling]
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welcome back to "fast money." this morning's cpi rate slowed to its lowest level in three years. moderating data on the inflation front has helped solidify hopes of a fed cut in september. and earlier on "closing bell," jeremy seigle explained why he is backing off his call for the central bank to make an emergency move before that meeting. here's what he had to say. >> i didn't say there was a recession, i didn't say it's a bear market, i didn't say dump
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your stocks. i'm just saying that when i look at the risk today, i see very little, if any inflation risk, and if there is risk, it's on the downside and i ask myself, why have we not moved one basis point? >> now recall, he called for an emergency cut of 75 basis p points, so -- there may not have been an emergency, but yet, there needed to be an emergency response to the nonemergency situation that he is now saying there was. >> the emergency was at the time, i think it was prior to the market opening, the market was indicated, the s&p down 140 handles, so, the emergency was in the form of the stock market, which is not an emergency under any set of circumstances outside maybe two or three times in recorded history. so, i'm not really sure what he was getting at. bonawyn and i were talking about this. i don't know what he was thinking that day. sort of an out of body experience for him, clearly.
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everything he said implied everything that he just said he didn't mean. >> right. which is a head scratcher, right? >> yeah, i mean, 150 basis points within the span of five weeks seems surprising. i think that does indicate that you believe there is, in fact, an emergency. listen, i'm not going to put words in his mouth, he said what he said and then he said what he said in response to what he said, so, you know, clearly, i mean -- the guy is doing something right. but i mean, it's -- it kind of it what it is, as the kids say these days. i think the market is kind of -- i do think the market is setting up for a rate cult, but i think 1 150 bips isso farfetched, and all the tools that we have to kind of reverse engineer what the market is feeling. >> right. to be fair, too, in terms of dialing it back, now the markets are pricing in 25. that's where the odds fall. >> i think where the market is right now is either 25 or 50 in
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september and they even it out, 25 september, 25 november, 25 december. i think if you pull it forward and do 50 in september, you run two risks. you run the risk of spooking the market and run the risk of being political. if they go even -- everyone thinks it's time to cut. >> just -- one more thing. if the -- if jay powell did come out and have a, you know, emergency meeting and say, i'm cutting 75 right now and i'm going to cut another 75 right after that -- >> the markets would go haywire. >> yes. it would have been adding -- yeah. coming up, a sike on psychedelics. is there still hope for the future of mdma in psycho therapy? plus, mars and kellanova in a major merger. we'll dig in, right after this. missed a moment of "fast?"
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money." shares of kellanova topping the tape on news it will be bought my mars in a deal worth $30 billion. the newscomes less than a year after kellanova, the maker of cheez-its and pringles, split off from cereal didn't wk kellogg. the ceos were on cnbc today to talk about the partnership. >> we were focused to create a business that had a geographical compliment, to bring great products to customers around the world. and the industrial logic is very compelling here. >> we had three quarters of very positive results. we had proven we were a faster growing, higher margin business with a great geographic portfolio. >> we were talking earlier about breaking up, you know, valuations, sum of the parts this was a great move by kellogg, and you own kellanova. >> yeah. i was not expecting this. the reason i bought it, the
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spin-off, both pieces traded down, you know how we say sometimes breakups -- they both traded terribly, which i thought, that seems -- all right. so -- both of them were actually good buys. and i was happy to hear this. >> yeah. what do you think it means in terms of deals? >> well, i mean, dan talked about the other day. typically, these don't typically happen in bear markets, so, i guess it's a good sign. it's clearly -- there's definitely spaces where deals make sense. we're seeing it in energy, in health care, now we're seeing it in some discretionary names. maybe some beat up names get gobbled up. i don't necessarily, though, think it's bullish for the overall market. >> all right, so, what we wondered, actually, if any other staples names could be ripe for some m&a action. we went around the horn here to see what our traders thought. steve, your pick? >> so, the one i picked was nestle for general mills. and they actually have a jv that dates back to -- for about 30 years now.
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and it called the cereal partners world. partnership. >> cereal with a c, as opposed to -- >> yes, that's serial killer, no. you know, i think when you have a jv, it makes it more apt, you kick the tires, you date, and then you marry. this has been a lucrative deal, it's been a profitable deal for them for decades. >> this is the longest engagement then. >> very locng. i know some friends who try to rival this engagement. but the point is, if they're starting to -- if the m&a activity is kicking up, and you have a good person that you want to marry and a good business, this probably would motivate that even quicker. >> karen, your thoughts? >> well, i -- one thing i picked was smukckers, they have done m favorite merger of all time when they bought jif -- >> makes so much sense.
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>> and they made uncrustables. so, i do think -- it would be a nice little tuck-in for somebody, and i was thinking maybe that somebody being campbell's, with their pep ridge farm and -- there's a little bit of geographic overlap in terms of where manufacturing might be. however, smukers is in ohio. terrible, terrible for activist. this has to be a friendly deal, stock for stock, because both companies have debt. that could happen. it's not the craziest thing. >> bonawyn? >> ah, similar situation to steve, with ko and monster. i think coke owns 19% of the company, so, they have an insider's view. and then, you know, the issue with these large-scale companies really is revenue growth, and this energy drink space has really been an engine of growth for much more established, both domestically and internationally, so, with the reach of coke, along with the
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brand awareness around energy drinks and monster specifically, i think it makes a lot of sense. >> guy? >> we used to have the etsy puppet. >> the guy adami puppet, yes. >> that was great. that's where i got turned opt etsy. got a good little business. i think -- listen, it's not going to move the needle, they probably do, what, $3 billion in revenue a year, a name like target, they benefit. if you think about etsy, they have logistic problems, cost problems that i think partnering up with a target or amazon would fix. they have a decent growth trajectory and sort of slots in really nicely, so, it would be an $8 billion, $9 billion deal. i'm surprised etsy hasn't been bought already. coming up, updates from the world of psychedelic medicine. why resent studies in the space have been retracted. that story is next. and all eyes on walmart, as they gear up to report results tomorrow what the numbers could say about the health of the nnsumer.
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welcome back to "fast
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money." euphoria around the psychedelic therapy industry is fading fast in light of recent setbacks. a top journal retracting three papers over the weekend citing concerns over unethical conduct in how the data was collected. many of the authors were affiliated with the same company whose application for mdma therapy was rejected by the fda late friday amid concerns of unreported adverse events and research bias. a bio tech reporter with stat news was the first to report on the journal retractions. great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> is this a case of -- of licos having issues, or are there real concerns about mdma therapy? >> it seems like it's a pretty company-focused issue. even during an fda advisory committee meeting back in june, the advisers voted overwhelmingly against approving the treatment, but they thought that the treatment itself had promise, it was just the way
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that they had handled it that was problematic, in terms of data integrity. >> is it possible they could redesign the trial and conduct it over again, phase two, or go into phase three and give it another whirl? do they not have the money to do that? >> so, that's the big question. they raised $100 million, not too long ago, but they, i'm told, are burning through it fairly quickly. they have been asked by the fda to submit a brand new phase three trial, and that takes years, and it takes a lot of money, so, it sort of depends on how they want to play this. i know they're going to be asking regulators about whether they can resubmit the data, they want another shot, basically, before they start a phase three. >> i know that when marijuana was hot and the possibilities for marijuana, that a lot of people were also interested in mdma and i'm curious what sort of money flow, you know, capital interest there is, in this area specifically, and what other
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publicly-traded companies there might be, albeit they are probably small. >> yeah, so, i don't actually associate the marijuana companies with mdma, psychedelics are a pretty different space, actually, but there are a few publicly-traded small companies, one is compass pathways, and they are pushing through their own phase two, phase three trials to develop psychedelics. so, it's not just licos. >> right now, everything is in phase two, so -- >> no -- sorry, go ahead. >> how far are we from getting anything potentially on the market? >> well, mdma with licos was supposed to be the first true sick dellic and so now we don't exactly know, it's all been set back a little bit. but compass pathways has a phase three study under way for treatment resistant depression, and that's, you know, that's in phase three, and it's -- it's a
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similar approach. they're going to have therapy involved in that, as well. >> any inkling that big pharma companies would scoop any of these guys up if the space has so much promise? >> i know they are watching very carefully. a really good indicator of that is kelt that mean. it's been approved since 1970, and it's shown a lot of promise with depression. johnson & johnson had a drug approved and that's s-ketamine, which is related, and that is basically psychedelic, too, and it is headed to a $1 billion in sales this year, so, it kind of shows that there's potential in the space to make a lot of money, but you know, we'll have to see whether other companies can follow suit. but big pharma is definitely watching. >> meghana, thank you for joining us tonight. >> thank you. >> we do want to get to a news alert here on just how much
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money brian niccol stands to earn as ceo of starbucks. >> we're getting a closer look at his compensation plan for starbucks via an 8k filing. for 2025, he'll be eligible for a base pay of $1.6 million and equity grants of up to $23 million. there's a $10 million cash signing bonus for the position, so, you're looking at up to $34 million in year one for 2025. that would also seemingly account for some equity left on the table by his leaving chipotle, though we're not sure how much that would amount to. and separately, there is an equity grant of up to $75 million. that is a big number, but it vests over a three to four-year period and is dependent on company performance and tenure length. just for context, at chipotle last year, he made just over $22.4 million, and his base pay was, i believe, around $1.3 million. in a statement, starbucks said, quote, brian niccol has proven himself to be one of the most effective leaders in our
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industry, generating significant financial returns over many years. his compensation at starbucks is tied directly to performance. we're confident in his ability to deliver long-term, enduring value for our partners, customers, and shareholders. melissa? >> kate, thank you. kate rogers. i guess it was no surprise that he had to be paid more. >> yeah, one thing about that $75 million replacement, is that because he had to leave any cmg money on the table and they just were making him whole for that? or is that a -- is that some sort of rsu kind of -- >> you know what? kate is still here. >> oh, i can ask her. >> kate rogers, we'll bring you back. >> karen, it's a mix, to answer that question. some of it are rsus and some of it, i believe, is part of the make whole plan, to answer your question. >> all right. kate, thank you. >> thanks, kate! >> thank you. >> when i bring back the guest, i get yelled at. >> she never good-byed.
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>> kate could answer it -- >> i'm -- >> if kate didn't know the answer, she would have just made believe she took her ear piece out. >> that would have been the smart thing to do. >> kate knew. >> i thought he would get more. >> i did, too. >> that's a lot of money, but i thought it would be more than that to make him walk. >> now you're the ceo of an international company. >> you should get more, actually. >> yeah, well. >> i'm surprised it isn't more. curious what that mix is, because if that mix is heavy to the just taking out cmg, then i think they got a pretty good deal. coming up, a key earnings report tomorrow from walmart. what the big box retailer's results could say about the u.s. consumer. we'll dig into expectations next. refa meyinwo.
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99.9% network reliability. so now they can focus on doing what they do best for the next five years. that's a lot of bread. you got this. the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. switch today for a limited tim. welcome back to "fast money." walmart on deck to report earnings before the bell tomorrow. hsbc and morgan stanley naming the company a top defensive pick this week. will the retailer deliver on expectations? they are high in this environment, steve. what do you think? >> so, i've been long this one since pre-split, and when i look at it on a chart, it' rs riding
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its 50-day moving average. last time it's done that was april. and it resolved itself with an over 20% pop. so, i'm looking for a resolution not quite as bullish as that, but i do believe the grind will consistently be higher from here. >> uh-huh. guy? >> environment, everything is setting up for walmart. we said it, they're the biggest grocer in the united states now. it all works. works for margins. i want to be clear, i think the stock continues to go higher. however, if they miss on the margin front and they start to see sort of some degradation in terms of comps, that could be a huge tell. so, i think it's more important what the tell is for the consumer than necessarily the stock itself, in my opinion. >> yeah, i think the bar is high. i think they're somewhat immune, given the grocery aspect of it. i think the upside exists if there's any shift away from that higher margin -- sorry, shift towards that higher margin discretionary business. i think that actually is a tailwind for walmart. >> they could also see more
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consumers migrating down to walmart, which would be huge. >> yeah. that would be good, except, are they migrating down to the lower margin, right, that would be the grocery, are they doing that? remember bill simon was on a couple of weeks ago and said he thought that sort of $100,000 plus income customer is actually sort of done with walmart, and that -- so, that would be bad if they lost that customer. i agree with everything everyone said, it's just expensive. it's expensive to itself, it's expensive. i do own it. it's similar to home depot and, you know, i don't know the earnings will be great. maybe not. but this is a great company, and they're doing all the right things. and not going to trade out of it and try to trade back in at the right time. so -- >> bill simon, by the way, is on tomorrow to talk about walmart results. so, we'll get his take. up next, final trades.
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time for the final trade let's go around the horn steve? >> samsara this stock was up when the whole market was getting eviscerated, and it's up when the market is doing well iot. >> karen >> yes so, ulta, i love the berkshire filing i owned it before that, from lower and from higher. i think steve's point of, maybe it was yours, buying it higher is really high to do maybe it was both, i don't know, but i think where it opens tomorrow is probably a good buy. >> bonawyn >> the vix has moved 50 handles high to low. 50 handles i think it's a warning shot. i want to own volatility >> guy >> big day for you i mean, in the -- 6:00 to 9:00 -- and you were the --
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really the anchor. you were the big toe of that show for three hours this morning. >> it's a long show. >> andrew was also present >> yeah, but you carried andrew. an andrew's watching right now. pru. >> zero chance that does it for us. see you tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i am jim cramer. don't make friends, i'm just trying to make it a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to put it all in context. call me, treat me. maybe there is nothing that can be

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