well, that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [theme music playing] ♪ good morning from london this is "street signs. i'm dan murphy let's get to the headlines european stocks take the cues from asia and wall street trading higher after the soft consumer print stateside equity futures looking like this now with the dow more than 100 points higher. the uk swing to growth continues in the second quarter as gdp moves .50% higher

the monthly data comes in flat as rachel reeves speaks out. and mixed fortunes in the japan recession, but china reckons with the latest batch of mixed data. and bet big on chinese tech names in the second quarter as top hedge funds cut their magnificent seven exposure welcome to the program we kick it off with the breaking news in central bank in norway the bank saying based on the current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will

likely be kept at the current level for some time ahead. a significant telegraph here on what to expect moving forward. the central bank adding the tight monetary stance will be needed to bring inflation down to target within a reasonable time horizon we have seeing the move after the central bank move to keep rates unchanged at 4.5%. we will continue to track the market reaction for you. let's get you across what is moving in the european equity markets right now. italy is out for a holiday today, but most markets have been tracking higher through the course of the session after the positive lead from asia. investors digesting cooler than expected inflation readings in the u.s. and uk. on the ftse 100, holding above the flat line. better by five points at 8,286 uk inflation picked up less than expected yesterday up 2.2% after

the 2% target. that is helping to boost boe rate cut bets and more confident prices are cooling gdp is up .6% for the quarter and moving in the right direction as well. the dax and paris cac 40 and the smi in positive territory with germany's dax leading gains. the uk economy continues the swing to growth in the second quarter despite the slump in june chancellor of the exchequer rachel reeves saying labour is under no illusion to the challenge it inherit i had i mentioned the positive lead from the region. nikkei 225 is up 8.2%. in japan, with saw the economy

expanding at the faster than expected 3.1% in q2 on the consumption uptick to help back the case for more rate hikes from the boj the hong kong's sahang seng is pulling back on the big beat on retail sales and urban unemployment data for july a little more diluted. mixed data when we assess the outlook across china and japan japanese jdp is surging in the second quarter coming in at a far higher thanexpected 3.1% in terms of what else we saw in these numbers, private consumption seeing its first gain in five quarters. the strong data point will point to further tightening from the boj. responding to the data, the japanese economy minister said the government will work closely with the boj to carry out the

flexible policy following the market route lin ling has more. >> reporter: growing by 3.1% isy contracted in q1 the big reason for the recovery is private consumption which had until the latest period being falling in every quarter for a year the rise in that component which includes consumer spending suggesting as analysts have been telling me that the cycle we know is beginning to emerge. capital spending for demand led growth rose by .9% in the second quarter meeting expectations these data points would be welcome news and analysts say

would boost the boj case for the further rate hikes although the timing is unclear given the market volatility last week and the upcoming leadership contest next month there are some caveats to the good news. june consumption may reflect the impact of the one-time tax reduction and it is unclear if real wages which turn positive in june for the first time in more than two years will become a trend given how much workers bonuses which fluctuate contributed to that number lin ling, cnbc international and chinese retail sales rose in july, but estimates missing rising 5.1% against the forecast of 5.2% this marks lawsuit evident in the series of data raising calls for further government stimulus to kick start the chinese

economy. sam has the story. >> reporter: mixed bag from china. retail sales picked up and industrial production slowed and unemployment rose and property sector continued to drag things looked more encouraging on the consumption side, consumers are cautious about spending backed by the rising jobless rates and housing slump. new home prices have fallen to the new nine-year low as stimulus measures failed to bring back confidence. while there have been signs of improvements in the july numbers, there are concerning trends already evidenced by weak credit demand. the data enforces the start from q3 after the q2. economists say the latest numbers paint a bleak picture of the china economy and could lead to more downgrades which are

under 5% they also believe policymakers need to do more particularly to help consumption the stats bureau sounded confident today it will help improve domestic demand. chinese stocks rose in the session on what was said to be the stimulus starts. the pboc cut rates last month and is expected to get more headroom once the fed starts easing the chinese central bank delayed the mlf and the market sees the policy overhaul. the next decision is the loan prime rate on tuesday. in singapore, sam vadas, cnbc business news. the intervention by beijing reveals worries from officials over the health of the economy you can read that full analysis on cnbc.com. let's give you a live look at the u.s. equity futures here. i flagged the dow and now up by

more than 100 points as we track toward the resumption of trade stateside. the s&p 500 up 15. the u.s. equity markets looking like this and that u.s. cpi print looking to smooth the way for a possible fed easing next month of 25 points some analysts say 50 is still in the offering we will talk about that with our next guest in a short while. you see the dow, s&p 500 the cpi coming in over 2.9% in july as investors look to see when the fed could join the peers in europe and uk in cutting rates from the highest level in more than two decades the u.s. central bank held rates at 5.5% for more than a year now and choosing to hold rates in

each of last eight meetings. traders have trimmed bets on the 50-basis point cut since the cpi read which came in line. that's according to the cme fed watch tool which shows investors lowering bets by 20 points it is a widening road to the next fed meeting with four events on the horizon. retail sales on friday and we get the minutes from the july meeting before the fed meets in jackson hole before the metric hits the tape on the 30th. the atlanta fed president raphael bostic told the ft that wednesday's cpi print is a very, very positive sign saying he is open to a september cut as fed officials should be mindful of the double mandate this after his chicago peer

austan goolsbee. let's unpack this with the head of economic research at st. james' place here in london. thanks for being here. first of all, disinflation in the u.s. helping to bring relief for markets. i think we can say the same globally there are still a number of risks out there. what are you watching out there? >> we have been saying for a long time, but services inflation is a key thing for the bank of england and the fed. it is still way above target at more than double that has to continue coming down when you look at super core inflation which has become a popular measure, that has started to drift lower again on a more dynamic basis, the three-year annualized. that is definitely good news

the labor market and wage growth and all of these things are really important to keep an eye on. >> walk me through your expectations when it comes to what the fed does in september i mentioned this week comments and commentary of a 50-basis point move this year those bets have been trimmed with the stabilization what is your expectation on the, i guess, type of cut we're going to see when the fed eventually moves? >> we've always thought the moves are likely to be gradual and well spaced out because we're not facing a recession we are seeing a very muted slowdown the labor market has weakened a bit, but from super tight levels what we expect from the fed would normally be 25 basis points or a quarter with data shifting around. unless you are facing a rece recessionary environment, 50-basis points is actually

questionable or back t-to-back cuts unless the idea has become behind the curve relative to other central banks, i can see the case starting off with a 50. to expect that to continue and s certainly on a back-to-back basis is what the markets are pricing is seems overstretched. >> 25 in september >> most likely. >> okay. if we saw 25 in september, what does it mean longer term i know you said rates are going to come down, that's obvious you said the fiscal picture in the united states is in picture and the election as well what are you referring to? >> normally, the fiscal deficit and the economy have a strong relationship if you look at the unemployment rate and deficit and the unemployment rate low, the deficit tends to narrow. you've got income tax revenues coming in and the government's

having to spend less what we have seen the last few years is the gap widen up significantly. now, the u.s. is a big economy with eprivilege. there is clearly a risk with the amount of supply that the market has to digest at some point it creates a wobble. the spillover to the other markets. the gilt market. not long ago with that kind of shock. i think that's the key thing. >> fascinating to watch as well. what is the next data point we should be looking out for for more clues on what the fed might do next coming into the november election >> given the reaction to the last set of labor market data payrolls, i think the next one well be a key marker

we have another inflation print before the fed meeting you mentioned jackson hole as well there is a whole load of thins. for the long term, it is the pace of unemployment the way we see it is a two-sided risk we are not at super lows, which means you don't have a sharp uptick we see gradual deterioration we are fluctuating to a mid-type scenario rather than recession imminent. >> you make a good point from the trading perspective, markets are hyper sense tough to the data especially with the next nfp i want to ask about here in the uk any key take aways and is there something we've missed here? >> i think most people are surprised by the uk gdp.

yes, we had a minor recession at the back end of last year. the numbers and including the bank of england have been pleasantly surprised by the numbers. i don't think that's necessarily sustainable. today's data, for example, there are big figures in net trade and stock trading. the consumer spending numbers are quite disappointing. we know uk households have been ramping up excess savings. that hopefully is a cushion into the second half of this year for the bank of england, they made this tentative foray into cutting rates. i think they will feel justified that they made that move even though inflation has partiparticular particulared ticked up we've always said this is policy normalization and not talking about deep recession risks that require an aggressive response i think the same applies

>> very having thank you for the conversation hetal meta at st. james's place. when we come back, stay with us, officials in doha set to embark on the gaza peace talks today. we will discuss that and other issues on the radar with tina fordham from fordham global insights we're back in two minutes.

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welcome back hamas says it will not take part in cease-fire negotiations in qatar today this after the agreement that could direct retaliation from iran after the hamas leader killing last month. mediators expect to consult with hamas once the talks are finished i'm pleased to say joining me at the desk in london is tina fordham, the founder of fordham insight. great to see you. >> great to see you.

>> the first thing i'll point out is the cia director in the room at the negotiations which is significant tina, what can you see being achieved here without hamas not at the table >> not only is hamas not showing up, but the secretary of state antony blinken it is important that hamas and this is framed as the last chance saloon. not all parties are present. what does that tell us it is not a priority it is not a priority either as israel and netanyahu in fact, i would argue it's in the interest of both hamas and in the netanyahu government to continue the conflict as counterintuitive as that might sound. >> what does it mean we will see

from today if you say these talks are set to fail, wouldn't that put israel at the strike from iran >> absolutely. it sounds shocking given the immense loss of life and the consequences for israel and the fact that the hostages are still in captivity and yet wars end when one side, at least, is willing to surrender when the cost in blood and/or treasure is too much i don't see either party being ready to do that the difficulty is the regional actors, egypt and qatar and the u.s. involved in these talks are keen to move forward to a solution the biden white house does not want an intensification of the

conflict heading into the u.s. elections. i think the hamas and israel are both playing for time. >> does that mean this war continues in the medium to long-term through the u.s. election in president biden said he cease-fire deal announced and end to the war it appears that kamala harris echoed the calls and doubled down on the calls for cease-fire there is political will, but what does that mean in real terms? >> in any analysis, i have been talking about the danger zone summer whether we're talking about the talks and escalation with the assassination attempts or possible retaliation or ukraine's move, what we see is geopolitical actors taking advantage of a kind of window, strategic window, before u.s. elections to change the facts on the ground that, in their view, will

enhance the negotiating issue with either president trump or a president harris i would argue the conflicts continue and all parties look to gain advantage during this period. >> what does this mean specifically on the ground for prime minister fettnetanyahu? he is seeking help from the united states to continue this war even if we saw a cease-fire deal is his time also limited in the political space as a result or as you say he is buying or time? >> netanyahu is an incredible political survivor he is playing both sides against the middle another u.s. strike carrier group has moved to the region with aircraft carriers he knows that the u.s. will have israel's back if it is attacked.

the terms have already been set out if the population center is attacked and if there are large-scale civilian casualties, et cetera. there are calculated risks on both sides the wild card which is important is biden is a lame duck president. he has put huge energy into israel policy. there has been blowback for democrats. costs incurred this is unusual in that we now have voters who are active on gaza policy. usually foreign policy doesn't matter much. will biden put tougher pressure on israel? this is the question is this a habits rabbit pulled hat that is a take it or leave it deal? what we can an agree is neither hamas nor netanyahu wants that

>> we will watch those talks tina, stay with us i want your reaction to this story. russia is evacuating more out of the kursk region. on wednesday, kyiv said it cleared the town of sudzha of russian forces tina, how far can ukraine push before russia retaliates with major force here >> this is a remarkable development, right the fact that ukrainian troops have penetrated russian territory in kursk where there was a notable disaster in august a very long time ago with the sinking of the submarine history repeating itself ukrainian troops are delivering humanitarian aid to the residents of kursk we have to remember one of the big sources of condition at on arming ukraine has been don't

attack russia in its territory now we've got tanks rolling in and a couple of chunks of russia being held russia hasn't retaliated it has barely responded, in fact, let alone this idea it's a red line whereby, putin's nuclear csabrerattling would be brought to bear. >> and putin is going to, of course, have to save face. what's his next move >> we are not hearing much from him. he has offered the princely sum of $110, ruble equivalent of people evacuating from the region of course, it alters the strategic calculus in the

eventual diplomatic negotiations now ukraine, if they are able to hold this territory, will be able to say we'll give you back kursk in return for donetsk. >> significant tina is staying with us after the break. the founder of fordham global insight. on the other side of the break, donald trump lashing out at the harris campaign we'll bring you all the details on the other side of the break we're back in two minutes. much more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify.

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you are live on cnbc this is "street signs" live from london i'm dan murphy first up, european stocks taking cues from asia and wall street trading higher after the soft consumer print stateside a live look at u.s. equity futures pointing higher when trading gets back under way in the united states. the uk swing to growth in the second quarter monthly data comes in flat as

rachel reeves used the release to hit out at the previous government. breaking in the last 30 minutes, norway's central bank holds rates at the six-month high saying the policy stance will be need ford some time ahead to bring down inflation. and mixed fortune nos in the asia session with china re reckoning with the latest batch of mixed data. welcome back to the program. let's go straight to what is moving across the european session today. as trading continues to unfold here, we are seeing markets broadly in positive territory. that follows a bullish lead from the asia trading day as well and also positivity from the united states the ftse 100 is holding at 8,284. investors, of course, looking at cooler than expected inflation

reads and also the gdp print all of that suggesting that domestic price pressures are cooling with gdp up 0.6% for the quarter and inflation picking up less than expected all good news for the boe which traders are now seeing increasingly likely to cut rates moving forward so, we're going to continue to unbpack that for you. elsewhere, dax is leading the regional gains by .35% when it comes to the resumption of trade on wall street, we are seeing markets called higher the dow pulling back on the futures picture in the last 15 minutes or so. look, that u.s. cpi print overnight helped smooth the way for the fed easing for at least 25 basis points. markets are stabilizing and we are expecting a higher open when trade gets back under way in the u.s. to politics now.

the republican candidate donald trump launched a series of personal and policy attacks at his rival kamala harris deriding her intellect. speaking to a crowd in asheville, north carolina, trump outlined his proposals, including slashing energy costs in half and repeating proposals on tips and social security income garrett haake fueleiled this ret >> reporter: the repeat edly under cut his message. donald trump taking aim at harris' report on the economy. >> kamala declared tackling inflation would be a day one priority think of it. for her, day one for kamala was three and a half years ago

why hasn't she done it >> reporter: blasting harris for rising prices in the last four years. >> does anyone here feel richer under kamala than you were under crooked joe? is anything less exex-expensive? >> reporter: she adopted over the weekend. >> eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers. >> remember a couple of days ago -- and we will have no tax on tips. i said that was my plan. >> reporter: making this new pledge. >> to help fixed income. there will be no tax on social security we're going to stop it >> reporter: in a speech billed as an address on the economy, trump veering off message. >> that's the laugh of a crazy person >> reporter: back of the

playbook of insulting harris. >> you know why? >> reporter: all despite criticism as democrats gain momentum rival turned supporter, nikki haley overnight. >> the campaign is not going to win talking about crowd sizes. it is not going to win talking about what race kamala harris is it is not going to win talking about whether she's dumb >> reporter: she will speak on the economy on friday. also in this critical battleground state garrett haake, nbc news, ashe asheville, north carolina. >> we have tina fordham with me around the desk. tina, i know you have been watching this closely. can the harris-walz momentum continue >> it is extraordinary to watch. it was only a few weeks ago that we had the remarkable

assassination attempt on president trump and the fight, fight, fight that just eroded into the distant past meanwhile, the harris-walz campaign is picking up momentum including in the swing states and still within the margin of error. it is 3% to 5% is the margin of error. we have to look at the democratic national convention which kicks off on friday in chicago. it will be a big love fest with a lot of energy. these are not normal times, but normally, they get a couple of percentage points in post-convention bounce republicans had it, too, but it went away quickly. i'm not sure there will be much of this. i'm saying the compressed timeframe plays to harris' advantage. >> i thought it was fascinating as well. harris has overtaken trump on the topic of who would be better to steward the u.s. economy.

trump had a winning narrative on the trade and the economy through the course of the biden administration and hitting key points that biden was missing, but through his own administration he was well supported through the course of his term on the issue of the economy now we're seeing the tide shift. couple that with rate cuts in november, do you think trump has lost his economic edge and on top of this, harris set to release her own economic plan tomorrow what is harris-onomics >> we don't know yet we can see what's trickled in so far. some proposals about avoiding price gouging or preventing price gouging in goods in particular she has done some political cross dressing and borrowed trump's proposal on no taxes on tips and everything else i think we should first of all understand there is a disconnect

between that poll that put harris in the lead on perceived economic stewardship that was a shock to the senses for many i don't think that the perception of economic competence desire ability that favors trump has changed. there is a lot of scrambling going on and my client base in the united states still prefer . >> what is wall street saying about the prospects of the harris presidency with the markets? you mention the bias is still toward trump, but is that shifting in real terms >> i see a lot of denial going on in terms of the polls remember, they're within the margin of error. september is when the rubber hits the road on the data. that's when everyone starts to

pay attention. you know, harris victory is definitely not priced in a lot of wall street participants have really been invested in the trump return to the white house. i would also differentiate between the big tech, for example, and big banks and corporates u.s. corporates are kind of piling in on a harris presidency because they rely upon the u.s. free trade and democracy phenomenon that's powered global corporations for the last 30 years. tech and fintech less so >> interesting of course, the response that we've seen from some sections of big tech is pro trump because we could see cuts to interest rates and cuts to red tape which is something he has pushed forward. >> and not regulating our sector.

>> exactly right as we see the policy rollout coming up for candidate harris, as she prepares to unpack exactly what harris-onomics, how does she address the inflation concerns which is an issue for the voter on top of the growth can we expect any major policy announcement that we haven't heard or is this more bidenomics >> she will want to put her own spin on policies i would not speexpect a lot of specificity. it is the law of nature that the more details the candidate gives, the more voters they will los lose it is to her advantage to campaign generally you see the old school

republican establishment suggesting that voting for harris means the continuation of the u.s.-led commercial trade security order and the chance to run a more mainstream candidate versus the inflation point that a trump presidency might represent. >> all right very interesting to watch. tina, i hope we can continue the conversation i appreciate you coming on today to unpack these issues >> thank you. >> that is tina fordham with the latest on the u.s. election and what is happening in geop geopolitics. up next on the show, we look at results as we get set for the check on the u.s. consumer that's coming up next.

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welcome back it is whale watching season. as we get into the so-called smart money this year so far, silvia has been digging into the details. silv, what can you tell us >> the second quarter was clear

there have been major changes in big tech holdings from some of the big investors as they are reassessing the a.i. outlook let me run you through the changes. david tepper slashed the stake in nvidia to just $85 million. the giant had been the firm's fifth largest holding. tepper also cut the stakes in a number of big tech names including microsoft, amazon and met a and alphabet we also saw tepper reposition in china with the holding of alibaba which is under 7% and while adding to the position in jd.com and etf striking chinese internet stocks and large-cap names. interesting rotation into the chinese names. the big short investor michael

burry loaded up on the chinese stocks adding 24% to his furthfirm's stake in alibaba making the holding worth $11 million. he increased baidu and sold off the stake in jd.com. i want to take you to bill ackman's moves he trimmed a number of top holdings in the second quarter including reducing its stake in top holding alphabet by 16%. interesting move here. pershing square revealed a 3 million share stake in nike worth $229 million that sent shares of the shoemaker higher after hours trading. nike shares trading up by more than 3%. ackman made $100 million profit trading in and out of the nike stock back in 2018

some back grground here to the position and the loeb's third point cuts meta and added apple with close to 5% of the portfolio now invested in the cupertino giant. when it comes to berkshire hathaway, we got more detail there. we know basically they have been on a selling spree which saw it offloading more than $75 million in equities in the second quarter as it grew the cash pile to the all-time high of $277 billion. just to put it in context, that's larger than the annual output of new zealand as well as portugal warren buffett's 40 million apple shares and cutting the holdings in capital one the firm bought $266 million of

ulta the shares in the beauty retailer gave the boost in the extended trade and up more than 16%. it is important to say that money managers with more than $100 million in assets are required to disclose the long positions with the s.e.c. 45 an days after the quarter ends. active traders could have changed positions by the time the figures come out that's an important update here. of course, the bottom line, dan, we have seen these big investors cutting their positions in big tech of course, when you look at the details of the portfolios, u.s. big tech still has a huge role in the portfolio >> silvia, thank you so much for the latest there fascinating to watch moving on in candy maker mars is acquiring kellanova. mars will pay $83.50 a share

which marks a 33% prempremium. the ceo of kellanova told cnbc he does not expect anti-trust and will exit the business after the deal closes. the ceos of kellanova and mars said it should bring good news for shareholders. >> it deal is the best outcome for shareholders it was paul who stimulated it with that telephone call we were not looking to sell the business when you are a publicly traded company, you are for sale every day. >> what we were focused on was to create a business that had a geographic issue to bring customers around the world steve said the industrial logic is compelling here we certainly hope that the kellanova shareholders are

happy. and klarna is close to selectsing goldman to lead the ipo next year. the fintech is considering a secondary share sale ahead of the ipo. the ceo is joining cnbc today at 7:00 p.m. cet. we are looking ahead to u.s. retail sales data. sales are seen higher by .3% on the month after the reading that beat expectations in june. of course, walmart is the latest of the retailers to report later today. revenue seen rising 4% on the year with earnings seen growing around 5%. that report will be watched for insight into the state of the sum u.s. consumer as home depot reported people are holding off on home projects until the fed cuts rates we have our latest guest with

us thank you for being here july retail sales is important what are you expecting to see not just these numbers, but moving forward characterize what is going on in the united states right now? >> the big thing, dan, in the u.s. in food retail is the only safe harbor left for walmart, kroger and costco. as you reported well, walmart is benefitting from walgreens boots and the rite aid and amazon receives subsidies that they don't receive in the uk or asia or latin america or africa with subsidized walmart, they are contribute to three dozen food and drug bankruptcies during the last 20 years in the

u.s. they are benefitting from bank bankruptcies, they are benefitting from the fantastic size and scale and disclosure, i'm a hshareholder of walmart walmart is advocating for the consumer against the unfair ftc charges by the price gouging of retailers. not true the farmers are suffering, the shoppers are suffering and the big brands like kellogg and kraft are benefitting by price gouging. for example, walmart and cheerios is 200% higher. it is not walmart. the farmers are receiving less, but the cereal millers are raising prices with impunity when input costs are down. walmart is fighting for brands as kroger and costco the ftc is looking in the wrong

direction and walmart, by being a low-priced leader, has a fantastic future both for the second calendar half of this year and going into the second half of this decade. >> i have to jump in here. you said something really interesting now. you said input costs are down. of course, we are seeing inflation move in the right direction in the united states, but to what extent are higher costs impacting the american consumer and biting into consumption? >> dan, to your important question, 65% of american consumers are living paycheck to paycheck the university of michigan consumer confidence index is at historic lows while food prices are at historic highs. it's all from price piracy as walmart follows the british business model of better store brands at lower prices like

kroger does with the manufacturing operations, when for the shoppers and more competition and lower prices and the big brands which is why mars is buying kellanova because they need more size and skilcale as kroger and walmart is trying to figure out how to save families $3,000 a year with better quality and value versus value branded product. >> anything else you are watching with big box retail earnings stateside or anything else in the sector that might be of note for the investors? >> my long-term recommendation, cnbc, dan, bj's wholesale club and costco and kroger with their great engineers, operators and practitioners lowering prices

this year and next year as they have the 22 prior years. >> we'll leave it there. i appreciate the conversation. thank you for coming on. managing director of strategic resource group a quick look before we close out the show markets are higher dow up 900 the s&p 500 up eight points. that does it for today's show. i'm dan murphy in london stay with us "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. enjoy your trading day ahead shopify's point of sale system helps you sell at every stage of your business. with fast and secure payment. card readers you can rely on. and one place to manage it

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." heredia is your "five@5." one fed head raises a new red flag on the economy. cisco popping on the earnings beat and fresh round of job cuts shares of walmart chipping in higher ahead of the earnings report in two hours time the key numbers you need to watch from the world's biggest retailer. china's economy facing n