tv Mad Money CNBC August 15, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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>> tough day out at shay ea tod you can't be losing 2 to 3 out of oakland in the middle of a pennant race as you know, mel robinhood getting off the lows we saw a week or so ago. >> thank you for watching "fast n'ney. dot go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now anywhere, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right,000. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc tweet me @jim cramer look, you can't blame anyone for missing this spectacular
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rally -- ♪ hallelujah ♪ that started ten days ago. >> that was easy >> they know nothing >> it took us all by surprise. most everybody but after a day like today when the dow gained 555 points, s&p jumped 1.61% and the nasdaq scorched 2.34% higher -- ♪ hallelujah ♪ it's worth thinking back to what happened in the monday meltdown two weeks ago just to get a little much-needed perspective i don't want to just rehash the turn you don't need this weatherman to know which way the wind blows. instead here's what i want to do i want to talk to you about the obstacles to catching a tradable bottom because they are incredibly powerful. at the lows two weeks ago everybody wanted to -- >> sell sell sell sell sell! >> not -- >> buy buy buy buy buy >> even though in retrospect it was a tremendous opportunity to purchase some high-quality stocks at bargain basement
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prices that all starts with the initial decline. on that monday we saw the dow fall 2.6%, s&p lose 3 and the nasdaq nose dive 3.43% it was a horrible dispiriting session. why did it happen? the explanation was very mysterious we were told that the yen carry trade broke up and apparently that's a massive and lasting problem, right sometimes just to see how bad it is it pays to look at the next day's summary in the "wall street journal" because it's the most authoritative real-time account of all the pain and fear people experience. under the headline, and i quote, unraveling trades fuel market rout we read, quote, the unwinding of some of wall street's most popular trades intensified monday, sending japanese stocks to their worst day since the 1987 market crash. and walloping u.s. technology
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shares for the vast majority of home gamers, and a goodly number of professionals, this excuse sounded ominous. popular trade. must have been hundreds of money managers involved. a mention of the devastating '87 crash where japan's meltdown heralded our own horrific collapse when they say tech was the focus, doesn't that mean the magnificent seven are done again? somehow they must relate to this mysterious yen carry thing that helped send the nikkei down an astounding 12% that day. many thought there would be some inevitable contagion on top of that we discovered that the smartest investor in the world, warren buffett, was selling tens of billions of dollars worth of stocks including a lot of bank of america, a long-time holding, and apple, a stock he said he wanted to hold on to so we had the best of the best investors lightening up while the averages collapsed it made you feel like an idiot for buying stocks or even owning
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them if buffett's blowing out a bank of america, didn't you have to sell the banks even though bank of america had the best quarter of the majors right? if he's selling apple, something's wrong, i mean, he knows everything so why not shoot the stock first and ask questions later? it's only natural, right the yen carry trade implosion buffett blowout, you know what that is? a one-two punch. but if we parse these negatives we discover something that is so different that it's almost embarrassing in the end these turned out to be incredibly flimsy reasons to sell alibis for dumping stocks sound very convincing when the averages are getting crushed, don't they but you need to put them to the test or else they'll lead you in the wrong direction they often do for example, the carry trade all right. carry trade. that's genuine wall street gibberish for borrowing money. the fund managers who were borrowing money were borrowing it in yen because japan had some of the lowest interest rates in the world. but when the bank of japan raised interest rates a couple
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times the yen spiked and the cost of borrowing money in japan soared just think of it like this, they have not adjustable rate mortgage they take it down to 3%, it goes higher just like that maybe to the point you can't afford the house anymore in short the institutions borrowing yen and there weren't that many it wasn't hundreds, the ones borrowing yen suddenly had to raise money immediately which is why they sold practically every stock under the sun including our great stocks yes, it was a popular trade, which meant a lot of forced sellers. that was a huge part of why the market got crushed too many complacent portfolio managers borrowed too much money, thought they were really smart, they turned out to be dumb, they're hiding right now we won't know who they are or i would put every single one of them on the wall of shame right behind me. pretty simple. more importantly never a long-lasting problem it was a one-off even though the papers made it sound like it was going to be with us forever. the other pillar of pain warren buffett selling bank of america and apple? buffett's the best he's the best there is some people looking at his moves and end up extrapolating to the point of absurdity
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and that's why they dumped the banks. it's why they dumped apple we heard it was based on apple's supposedly weaker chinese sales but ceo tim cook told me the sales were surprisingly strong and detailed why that was. for the rest of the week until we got a positive jobless claims number thursday morning we labored under the delusion that our economy was headed for a recession. worldwide recession all because of japan and the safest thing to do was to sell. it didn't matter that japan only bounced back 10% the next day. what matters was the smart money was getting out of the whole asset class and we felt like dopes hanging on in reality it was the dumb money that was getting out in part because warren buffett or one of his assists f sichbts made us nervous. of course we knew nothing about why he sold. maybe he was just ringing the register nobody cared it just made everything more fraught, more fearful. and of course japan, who knows there was absolutely no contagion. now let's take a step back there are two parts to every sell-off the averages get crushed when
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you have a wave of sellers like these knuckleheads with the yen money. and then the other part of it is a lack of real buyers. we knew who the sellers were, these troubled money managers and we thought we knew their motivations. but if you wanted to do something, if you wanted to buy, you ran into a real problem. it is earnings season and it's a big one. and while might hear it's going well we actually lack a series of big beat and raise quarters we've got a lot of up side surprises where management left their full-year forecast unchanged. which is basically an implicit guide down so very few stocks seem like enticing buys at that moment even though the selling turned out to be based on pretty much nothing, hardly anything looked like it was pounceable, so to speak. like you wanted to buy it on the dip. when i scan the earnings report from the season, few companies actually beat and raised let me tick them down for impact, write them down. first we had two tech companies, that's right, only two that gave you fantastic sales, earnings and forecasts. that's the magic troika that
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makes people feel comfortable buying even though -- those two were service now and mark zuckerberg's meta platforms. they both blew away the numbers and gave you super forecasts interestingly enough both companies are using ai powered by the latest and greatest of nvidia's chips matt in particular told about how it can use ai to design programs that frantz with a great return on investment for advertisers. that's a unbeatable combo. one drug company eli lilly gave you the best raise and beat quarter of the entire season and that's thanks to the glp-1 weight loss drug coca-cola worth owning aerospace. hal met. it's a company that designs screws fascinators they call them for planes two simple industrials made the cut. parker hanifin, very nice. and eaton trounced the numbers by doing prosaic things. the kind of things industrials
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do and uber delivered an incredible quarter showing people are still going places and doing things. that's it, though. and we can throw in walmart now but it's really too late the buying opportunity's probably over. the bottom line on this incredibly important story that occurred over the last two weeks, in will be other buying opportunities in the future, other crazy sell-offs, but let's remember that very often these market meltdowns are driven by nothing. what happened two weeks ago was pure market mechanics. nothing to do with the fundamentals so keep that possibility in mind the next time the averages get clubbed. it might be the opportunity you've been looking for to do some buying. >> buy buy buy buy buy buy buy >> why don't we start the calls with peter in florida, please? peter. >> caller: hi, jim peter in florida one question if i may. >> sure. >> caller: at&t. let it go or should i stay >> let it go there's a lot of better opportunities including, by the way, t-mobile, which is really a horse. why don't we go to greg in tennessee while we're at it? greg >> caller: good day, mr. cramer. it's a pleasure to talk to you
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>> right back at you >> caller: about seven months ago i bought a stock in what i thought was a solid and consistently profitable company, and it's been terrible it feels like i've got another intel on my hands and i'm down about 25%. do you think it's time to sell to cut my losses or hang on to nucor? >> oh, no, don't sell nucor. okay, nucor is in the end a cyclical company we sometimes want these big steel companies to be something other than what they can be. in the end they are still tied into the earnings cycle. they're still tied into any downturn but when the fed starts cutting rates the first stock people are going to reach for including me for my charitable trust will be nucor. so please do not sell the stock. look, you have to remember that very often the market meltdowns we get are caused by nothing what happened two weeks ago was purely market mechanics. all the stories were wrong
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so keep that in mind the next time we get a sell-off it's often based on nothing. on "mad money" tonight, two years since the implementation of the inflation reduction act how is jacobs engineering faring i'll talk to the ceo after earnings then walmart beat on the top andment bo line and hiked its full year guidance citing healthy consumers. could it be a sign of things to come i'm getting into the retail details. but an under the radar housing play that you told me about. and maybe it will be kwworth buying, maybe not. i'm turning in the homework. so stay with cramer! >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on x have a question? tweet cramer hashtag madmentions. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to mad money.cnbc.com
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lately we've been so focused on the federal reserve that it feels like we've forgotten some big government-mandated trends like the stunning amount of money the biden administration has earmarked for infrastructure spending even a year ago at this time wall street was eagerly searching for infrastructure wibers that can feed at the federal trough so to speak i don't think anything's changed here but the stocks have lost the excitement luster. take jacobs solutions, an engineering construction services that stands to be a big winner from all this infrastructure spending. especially after they spin off their critical mission solutions in cyber and intelligence business to amentum by the end of next month. when jacobs reported last week even though the headline numbers were mixed the background was terrific let's take a closer look with bob pregana, ceo of jacobs
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solutions. welcome back to "mad money." >> always great to be here >> we're getting closer and closer fill our viewers in because when we saw you last time it was -- let's say it was in its infancy but now we're really about to get the pure play that a lot of people want. >> we're right there i think the last time we spoke it was in december and we had a long road ahead of us. but thanks to a great team and working with all of our folks we're right there. we've gotten the regulatory approvals almost and by the second half of september we'll be on our way. >> so what will remainco look like >> it's going to be a very focused business on zmvgt advanced facilities. we also have p.a. consulting which we have a majority investment in. it does consulting and advisory on infrastructure-type work. so the end-to-end life cycle is really what we're going to be focused in on. >> so help me here this morning my partner david faber turned to me and he goes, jim, none of the money's been allocated for some of these programs like chips, i know you're
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excited about the chip act but it hasn't even come out yet. where are we really in all the i.r.a. and chips money in terms of how far along the whole process is >> so maybe we'll go through each >> yes, please >> on iij, which is really focused in on infrastructure, we're probably 60% appropriated to 30% spent so the money has been flowing to the states remember there was two parts top up on the formulaic transportation type spending and then there were grant money. and so the grant money has been flowing as well as the top ups on the formula-based work. so that's been going and we've seen that in our pipeline. >> and you have a lot of that. >> we have a good amount of it in our pipeline -- so double-digit growth in the top line in water as well as in advanced facilities, which is the segue to chips the chips act, remember, those companies had already started those fabs and then made applications for the moneys. >> okay. >> so whether they've received it or not, i think that's
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debatable. but those fabs and kind of the chip manufacturing infrastructure around the country is well under way. >> now let's talk about one of those. there's a question that was asked of you in a conference call about intel and intel this morning we learned at softbank didn't want to partner with intel because they didn't feel they were so-calledup to snuff with the kind of idea that maybe they've taken on too much and they may not have necessarily the money to do it all, is there a way to be sure that jacobs is never caught not getting paid? >> no. especially not with intel. intel's been a long-time client for us for over 40 years resilient company. and yes, jim, some things that are in the news right now with regards to where they are, we're bullish. it was a bold move that pat made back in '21 about turning into a foundry. and a lot of that infrastructure is well under way. so we're comfortable -- >> and you feel good about the
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brookfield tie-up, belt and suspenders >> i think it will still be there. i think what's even more exciting when you think of kind of the chip industry in the u.s. is what's happened with the others if you look at micron or some of the other asian manufacturers that have come here, those fabz are well under way and producing that infrastructure -- >> are you doing the taiwan semi in arizona >> we're not >> because that's gigantic >> it is >> i'm conscious some of these -- there's a lot of them in new york state. they're kind of everywhere >> they are. not just in logic but in memory as well. this is kind of high bandwidth memory i'll give you an example -- >> it's a micron specialty >> it's micron specialty and if you look at an ai chip, there's probably more micron silicon on that chip than nvidia silicon. it just tells you the power of micron >> so you spend a lot of time with sanjay mar ott rah figuring out what to do next? >> i've met him. great person >> he really is. he's dynamite. now, speaking of dynamite, you know we like what david rich is
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up to with glp-1 and what i think people don't understand, particularly people who believe that everybody who challenges them is going to be a winner will you please tell people how hard those places are to build >> they are extremely difficult. >> and why >> the complexity inside the facility you look at the outside in, jim, it looks like a warehouse. >> right >> you go inside, and this is a very sophisticated arrangement of vessels, reactors, heat exchangers and the layout is important. so that manufacturing layout is extremely important when you're going from a bench scale therapy to commercial production >> well, then is like in that sense a micron high bandwidth foundry. >> it very much is so. that's why jacobs is in both >> you -- you're in that niche of the most complicated jobs you're not just building simple warehouses >> no. i'll give you an example in life sciences, jim. we only work with those tier 1 clients who are advancing
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science and therapies beyond ever >> i've got to tell you i think that's a great gating factor one of the reasons why i've wanted to have jacobs the company is there are just not a lot of other companies i mean, without -- you don't have to say the names but how many people can really bid on these very complex jobs? >> to say handful, that would be a lot. a couple globally >> really? >> at that scale and that type of speed only a few. >> so how often do you follow around a company like -- they build one here they build one in germany, maybe one in asia. are you a leg up on them if you already do it here >> we go with that client all over the world >> that's fantastic. >> our life sciences clients procure centrally and deploy capital globally and we're a global company we go with them. >> that's fantastic. do you think about what would happen if they changed the white house? or are you more focused on congress are you focused on the bills that are in that are now law that you don't even have to worry necessarily? or do you have to keep an eye on
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it >> it's probably more the latter you know, this is law. it was bipartisan support for the stimulus act and all states are benefiting. this isn't red states or blue states it's the united states that are benefiting from this >> so just to pin things down first, buy jacobs now, i -- it's a little convoluted. if i wait a couple of months when i buy jacobs i'll get all the things we just talked about, correct? >> you would but also, jim, if you buy now you get that with the added benefit of amentum, which is going to be the merged company that's coming out that just had their capital markets day -- >> but they'll have their own different ceo. >> different ceo, different ticker but with a board of directors and exec. chair, majority of the board of directors in the exec. chair and the c.o.o. that came from jacobs. >> well, i'll tell you, it's a very exciting time everything you told me a few years ago has come true. you urged patience on my part and i have adopted that patient attitude but it's very exciting that's bob pragada, ceo of
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seen a lot of hand wringing about the state of the consumer and the state of retail. even amazon gave us cautious guidance but not all retailers are in the same boat. this morning walmart proved that when you offer shoppers great value they'll keep showing up. that's how walmart managed to report a glorious quarter. they delivered 4.2% same-store sales growth wall street was only looking for 3.4% with the vast bulk of that coming from transaction growth, not higher prices, which is not what you want. you don't want this number to be made by inflation. when you keep prices at a reasonable level, the traffic takes care of itself this is what allowed walmart to post a sizable revenue beat with expanding gross margins and a two-cent earnings beat off a 65-cent basis. both the core walmart business and sam's club put up just fantastic numbers in the u.s walmart international had softer sales but its operating income came in much higher than expected management also had good things to say about flip cart their e-commerce subsidiary that's a major player in india. in fact, this company's even doing well in china with strock
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membership trends and especially strong performance from sam's club over there. everybody else is getting crushed by the china's weak economy. but not walmart. what else? here's a stunner walmart put up 21% e-commerce growth worldwide driven by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery their nascent advertising business, the margins here are insane grew by 26% globally and their loyalty program walmart plus had double-digit membership growth best of all unlike some other retailers walmart raised its full year forecast across the growth raised their revenue outlook from 3% to 4% range to the 3.75 to 4.75% range might not sound like much to you but when you're dealing with low to mid single digit growth that is meaningful improvement. they also raised full year earnings per share outlook by 9 cents per share at the mid-point. remember, walmart only beat by two cents in th quarter so the seven cents they're coming for the rest of the year so many companies won't raise. these guys did in fact, the strength's really
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coming from the fourth quarter because their earnings guidance for the current quarter came in a tad light. that wasn't enough to prevent the stock from shooting up nearly 7% today. this is a gigantic company, people and by the way, not a tech company although it's got a lot of tech. why did this happen? because as strong as the numbers were, the conference call was heavenly just listen to what walmart ceo doug mcmillan had to say "so far we aren't experiencing a weaker consumer overall. boom very encouraging he goes on to say, "around the world our customers and members continue to want four things they want value. they want a broad assortment of items and services they want a convenient and enjoyable experience buying them and they want to do business with a company they trust. walmart checks all four boxes. ♪ hallelujah ♪ >> that was easy >> they basically laid out a playbook for how a retailer can thrive in this environment maybe other companies can't do it because right there it's like you want to take us on, this is what you should do i was pleasantly surprised when mcmillan stressed not just twice
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but convenience. management used the word convenience 11 different times on the conference call while everybody knows walmart has incredible prices which would theoretically be enough to drive traffic at a time when consumers have less money to spend thanks to years of inflation softening the economy, these guys made it clear that convenience is part of the secret sauce that keeps people coming back. that makes sense to me remember, even though we've got a very value-conscious consumer she keeps paying up for various online delivery services even though it's much cheaper to take out. doordash, uber eats and instacart are all doing well because these days people value their time even more than they value their money. mcmillon went into more detail with this theme when he got a question from b plchlt o analyst ssion of today's earnings a call she wanted more color on how walmart's taking tons of market share thanks to gains with, get this, upper income households. historically that really haptds been their demographic now, i have to tell you, my daughter and i, we -- both my kids we love shopping at walmart. but we tend to assume most rich
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people won't deign to set foot in one of these stores even though i've got to tell you, they are just dynamite however, mcmillon insists value matters to everyone. listen to this quote, as it relates to higher income people, they can buy more discretionary goods and pay more for convenience and we're offering all of it, end quote. that's exactly how we feel when we go. now, think online delivery fueled by walmart plus memberships. throw in the new remodels. and he thinks he can keep taking share with higher income consumers. he's price if you go there, you'll buy the stock. there was a lot of interesting stuff on the call. we're talking about the biggest retailer in the world. they have some keen insights even where you'd least expect it for example, generative ai mcmillon said walmart's using it to improve their product quality. as he explains, the quality of the data in our catalog affects everything we do from helping customers find and buy what they're looking for to how we store inventory in the network to delivering orders end quote according to him, the company would have needed to hire nearly
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100 times as many people to handle all this data in the same amount of time without generative ai. there you are. that's the best use case i've heard yet. it's either that or it would have taken much longer to get organized. that's the way you look at it. who says generative ai doesn't have a use case? it saved warmt a fortune i keep waiting for a major grocer to mention the food business has to take a hit from glp-1 drugs. walmart's the nation's highest grocer and they mentioned glp-1s on the conference call but not in the way i was looking for instead we learned their health and wellness business contributed to strong same-store sales primarily to sales of glp-1 drugs. they acknowledged it on the pharmacy drug but we'd still like to know more about what it's doing to the grocery side of the business. right now they say it has not been negatively impacted overall this was a very strong set of numbers and it came just a couple of hours before the better than expected july retail sales report that combination was a huge driver of today's remarkable rally. when walmart crossed these
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numbers i said uh-uh, not today satan. this could be a good one but the bottom line, don't make the mistake of assuming walmart's results give you some kind of generic read on the consumer you can't just extrapolate from the best operator in the industry to everyone else. this quarter's a testament to the fact walmart's management keeps doing an excellent job i hope the rest of retail can come close but when it comes to brick and mortar with the sole exception of costco walmart's in a league of its own. and you know what? i think it's got more room to run. why don't we take calls? why don't we go to mike mike mike in illinois mike >> caller: jim, how are you? >> i'm doing well, mike, how about you? >> caller: i'm great i have a nice position in tjx and i'm wonder figure should add to it before its earnings come out on the 21st. >> okay. so that's a dicey question because we're putting a little gun to my head and i say take the gun away tj maxx has historically not performed well around earnings it was up nicely today, 2 1/2% i would wait till after to buy because it tends to collapse
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after -- they're very conservative people keep expecting them to say great things they don't play it that way. buy it after, not before how about michael in tennessee, please michael. >> caller: hey, jim. boo-yah. >> boo-yah >> caller: jim from nashville, tennessee. >> oh, i love that city. >> caller: yeah, it's great. born and raised. >> good for you. >> caller: my question is in regards to cava. the company has plans to have 1,000 stores open by 2032. what are your thoughts on cava's growth strategy compared to -- >> i love cava -- no, cava's real it's the best new concept. i like it. it was down ten points last week and we recommended it. so i don't know. it's all the way back up why don't you give it a rest before you jump in all right. the quarter walmart just delivered is a testament to the great job from its management team they are really good i hope the rest of retail can follow along but besides costco, which we own for the charitable trust, walmart really is in a league of
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its own. i'm eyeing one under the radar housing player that i first learned from you, cramerica. then what's in and what's out in this market? after a volatile tech sector i'm going to reveal what to watch. and of course all your calls rapid-fire in tonight's edition of the "lightning round. of the "lightning round. so stay with cramer. ( ♪♪ ) morgan stanley is partnering because this game is for everyone.
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absorbine junior pro,n. the strongest numbing pain relief available. it's the only solution with two max strength anesthetics for fast penetrating relief absorbine junior pro. nothing numbs pain more. whenever you call me and ask about a company that i don't know or haven't been following, i always promise to do some homework and then circle back later with a more informed opinion. as much as i love talking about my own favorite stocks, spleeshlgt ones we own for the charitable trust and the cnbc investing club, at the end of the day the show is about helping you become a better
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investor which means i need to be able to address the stocks you actually care about otherwise, what's the point? so let's catch up on some summer reading. back on july 29th jeff in connecticut stumped me with a company called four star group that's for for all you home gamers i said i'd get back to him i did not know this company. it's an outfit based in arlington, texas, it represents a key link in the home building food chain for star is what's known as a residential lot development company. one that operates in 60 markets across 24 states their business is pretty straightforward. they acquire entitled real estate, then develop that land into finished residential lots by building the necessary infrastructure they then flip those lots to the home builders for a nice profit. home builders love the setup because it allows them to keep less land on their balance sheets in fact, d.r. horton the nation's largest home builder liked forestar so much they got into bidding war in 2017 they ended up buying a 75% stake
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in the business. at this point it's down to 62% because forestar issued new stock. but it's still a subsidiary of d.r. horton that happens to be publicly traded. more on the subsidiary status in a second you know, frankly i hesitate to endorse this kind of situation i think to myself why would i own the subsidiary when you can just own the parent which controls its destiny but the d.r. horton relationship has been great for forestar. from 2018 to 2023 the company saw a 1000% increase in lots sold the revenue's grown from less than 200 million to $100.44 billion last year. their earnings have roughly tripled over the same period however, forestar's stock pretty much flatlined until the marketwide bottom in the fall of 2022 at which point it finally took of o' remember, when the fed started rapidly raising interest rates wall street assumed everything connected to housing was toast in reality, as you know from watching the show, the housing shortage in this country is so severe that even sky-high mortgage rates didn't start with doing much damage to home sales
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until pretty recently. at the same time existing homeowners don't want to sell because of the so-called golden handcuffs they locked in ultra low mortgage rates when the fed was in easy money mode and they don't want to trade those mortgages for much more expensive mortgages they need to buy another house in this environment. that's been great for home builders because they're basically the only real source of additional supply the only inventory around. it's given them tremendous pricing power which they have and they have great gross margins. that strength flows down the home building food chain to forestar which saw its stock roughly quadruple from the lows in october of 2022 to its highs this past march. quadruple. before cooling off a bit in the last few months. this thing peaked around $40 in the spring and now it's closer to just under $30. now, you might think i'd be all over this one because i spend so much time recommending the building suppliers and toolmakers and even lumber companies lately in anticipation of fed rate cuts, rate cuts that should provide a huge boost to the home builders. if mortgage rates come down and buyers get more aggressive, the home builders will need to buy
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more land from companies like forestar, right? not so fast. remember the golden handcuffs, something home depot mentioned earlier this week that i had never used the term before we've got all these existing homeowners who won't sell until mortgage rates come down but if you think the fed's going to start cutting rates that unlocks the golden left-hand cuffs. it means existing homeowners will finally start listing their houses, which is bad news for an outfit like forestar more importantly it's not like these guys are doing well at the moment forestar disappointed badly when it reported mid july [ boos ] thanks to a nasty 15% decline in lot deliveries sales down, earnings down 18%. both missing estimates by a mile management also cut their full year closings forecast so demand's clearly evaporating here but forestar's got 102,100 lots. that's 102,100 up 40% year over year. meaning they're stadium with tons of excess real estate now, it doesn't help that the company's a little too concentrated in some pretty
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wobbly housing markets more than 58,000 of those lots are in texas, which has peaked for the most part, and florida, which i think has definitely peaked for the last few years it's been fabulous as both states have had tons of migration post covid but they're starting to struggle a little bit with lots of new supply coming online in those markets. so you have to expect less new construction and that means forestar should sell fewer lots. you know what i also worry about this forestar relationship with its parent company d.r. horton sure this partnership has worked well for them so far but at the ebbed of the day d.r. horton has a controlling interest in forestar when your biggest customer's also your biggest shareholder you have a problem when it comes down to it horton will do what's best for horton's shareholders, not forestar's shareholders in short, if you own this one d.r. horton has the wheel, you're just a passenger. again, they are very few situations where it's worth owning someone else's publicly traded subsidiary. if you like forestar's business and you believe as i do that the housing complex will indeed get a huge boost once the fed starts cutting rates, well, then let's
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think about this why wouldn't you just buy d.r. horton instead you get forestar you get a quality home builder and most importantly you're buying shares of a company that's actually in kroefl its own destiny. let me put it this way since d.r. horton acquired a controlling interest in forestar group in october 2017 horton's stock is up 332% forestar's how about 80% hort ons dramatically outperformed both the s&p 500 and s&p home builders etf. it's a really good company forestar's dramatically underperformed both benchmarks in fact, whether you're looking at the last three years or five year, one year, doesn't matter, d.r. horton significantly outperformed forestar in every single time frame. same goes for 2024 horton's up more than 15% for the year and forestar's stock is down more than 10% so here's the bottom line. when you have a choice between a parent company and its publicly traded subsidiary, you almost are always better off with the parent i'm not that sanguine about forestar's core business, even once the fed starts cutting
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rates. but even if i loved this company i'd still tell you just bet on d.r. horton instead. because horton owns 62% of forestar which means they're calling all the shots. "mad money's" back after the break. >> announcer: coming up -- hit us with your best shot an electrified fast-fire "lightning round" is next.
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buy buy buy sell sell sell my staff prepares it on the fly. play until this sound. and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money" -- let's start with cody in kansas. cody >> caller: hey, jim, it's cody remds coming in from tonganok, kansas not too far away from kansas city and i will say i love myself a barbecue and arthur's is overplayed beamers all the way. >> i think you're right, actually when we were out there it was minus 9. i couldn't feel my mouth anyway. what's happening >> caller: i wanted to hear your thoughts on snowflake. they just announced a partnership with transunion last week >> yeah. the latest feedback i'm getting from snowflake is they have some difficulties they're challenged by a couple of companies it's kind of like the long knives are out for those guys right now. i think i'm going to hold off from recommending it let's go to sandy in california. sandeep. >> caller: hi, jim boo-yah. >> boo-yah >> caller: thank you for helping us, all of us. you're doing a great job, jim. >> oh, thank you
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thank you very much. >> caller: i'm curious about rprx >> i always thought there was going to be more to this stock than it has been it's really been a bit of a bust i feel badly i thought it was going to constantly have a bigger, bigger, bigger yield, bigger dividend, and it hasn't worked out. and as far as i'm concerned it's just a so-so situation let's go to arlene in texas. arlene >> caller: hi, jim long-time buyer, first-time caller >> thank you >> caller: the stock i'm curious about is coors what are your thoughts about that >> there's two coors there's the one i like which is tap, t-a-p but that's a joke. and then there's core scientific and core is a very overvalued situation because it's never made any money but it is another play on crypto if you like crypto buy crypto. let's go to bobby in louisiana bobby. >> caller: hey, jim. >> bobby >> caller: with automobile prices coming down and potential
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interest rate cuts approaching, what's your opinion on ally financial? >> buy really simple. you laid the case out well you're absolutely right. let's go to vince in nevada. vince. >> caller: my name is vince from vegas. they call me vegas vinny how are you today? >> i'm good, vegas vinny how are you? >> caller: i'm jamming norwegian ycruise line. been in it two years dollar cost average out $20 a share. every time quarterlies come out they smash analyst expectations. give me some good news >> royal caribbean there's the good news, vince from vegas i like royal caribbean because every time that stock comes down thousands of buyers come in and every time norwegian comes down nobody cares let's go toe eli in connecticut. >> caller: i love your show. i'm a high schooler, new
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investor but i'm a diehard giants fan i like the 6% dividend but it doesn't want to move higher what are your thoughts >> well, first of all, i think that when you gave away saquon to us that was very kind i never saw that coming. i never knew we were such best friends. so it's good thank you very much. secondarily, pfizer is kind of like who we gave you who did we give you? i forget that's right pfizer that's a 5% yield it's got some interesting drugs. and i'm sorry, but it's -- look, you bought one guy for 60 million and he turned out to be a penny stock. let's go to ross in arizona. ross >> caller: ba-ba-ba-boo-yah, jimmy chill. >> yo, yo, man what's shaking >> caller: not too much. more than 500 robo taxis already on the road and plans to double that by the end of the year. strong cash flows. and a forward p/e in the mid single digits. what are your thoughts on baidu? >> the problem with baidu is if
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it were in any of the other 172 countries in the world i'd probably say buy it. but it happens to be right now in a communist regime that is pretending to be capital they are communist i don't want to buy anything in the communists they have historically been people you don't want to buy from let's go to raymond in kansas. raymond. >> caller: hey how are you doing, jim >> oh, raymond, i'm real dynamite how about you? >> caller: i'm doing great i'm calling because i want to know about the chinese stock, the flying cars, xping >> yeah, it's about time to buy a flying car stock from people's republic of china. i've been thinking about it and thinking about it and i said there's nothing like buying a flying car from president xi but maybe i'll take a pass and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round"! >> announcer: the "lightning round" is sponsored by charles schwab
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it's hard to keep track of the wall street fashion show up until today for the last few weeks we hated the data center story. previously one of the hottest trends around. we heard it was big hat no cattle we all felt fooled by artificial intelligence and the machines housed the data centers that are probably aren't even being used a lot of dust gathering. suddenly it's back nvidia's stock is running. now steaming full speed ahead. when a stock that brought down an entire group rallied this hard you have to recognize it and you must exploit it. >> all aboard. >> what changed the dynamic here why did the data center become fashionable again? hard to say. hey, maybe it was cisco talking about how strong artificial intelligence is. it was a solid quarter cisco just gave us with a lot of ai bells and whistles maybe it's the possibility that
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japanese giant softbank is going to team up with amd or broadcom to challenge nvidia. don't laugh. today the ft, financial times, said that softbank wanted to team up with intel and challenge nvidia but the deal fell apart because apparently intel couldn't deliver on its end. very hard tore intel to deliver, such a heinous balance sheet amd or broadcom, though. speculative. but so is the information that crushed the stocks two weeks ago by claiming nvidia's latest high-end chip blackwell was significantly delayed and would therefore cause a setback for many of the tech titans. looking back, that seems more like it's from the misinformation now, we hear from nvidia on the 28th it can't currently defend itself but there's been a subtle shift against the negative narrative against ai, a shift that should allow nvidia to run right into the quarter. what hasn't fully kpum back yet? okay, i got them the ancillary plays like eaton which makes so much of the electronics and power equipment
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for the data center. as does vertiv let's not forget cummins they make backup power systems for these warehouses full of servers. i am partial to eaton for the charitable trust because it's figured in so many mega trends the data center's only one of them but they all work. same goes for dell, which links the nvidia chips to the clients themselves it's become a very hot stock again and it can still go higher how do we know that business is still booming here well, why don't we just listen to jonathan gray he's the president and ceo of blackstone, the massive private equity firm that owns a gigantic data center company called qts john wasn't with us on "squawk on the street" this week he told a tale of incredible growth it's not running out of room early innings. there's so much data that's needed to the point where building these data centers will be a huge profitable business for a very, very long time at the end of the day artificial intelligence and its accouterments, each time it's pronounced dead each time some wag propoints out the gains in nvidia are absurd and must be
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rolled back each f each time you get a giant snapback like we're seeing right now, maybe just maybe when the graup sells off again we should remember the acenter is not some fleeting finite story it's actually more like the greatest story ever told i like to say there's a bull market somewhere i promise to try to find it for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer see you next time. when the opportunity of a lifetime is hitting you. you guys are the world's worst businesspeople, or you don't need us. stop the madness. no. what am i eating here? sand? ohh, wah. geez. i feel like i've been an entrepreneur my whole life. why would you want to invest with me? -ouch! -i literally lost everything. oh, my god. where's all the money going? oh, boy. [ grunts ] for 2.5%, you won't be able to get him on the phone. this would be the dream team. ♪♪
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