paying attention to this huge buildout than there were then but does rhyme without a doubt. >> to the ai that we see taking shape right now. mike, we'll see you again tomorrow and see what this market does as well. for now that's going to do it. for us on "over time" and "fast money" begins right now. >> thank you very much. live from the nasdaq marketsite right here in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight, on a roll the s&p and the nasdaq now riding an eight-day winning streak and tomorrow's session as the recovery rally gets stronger. so can the good times last or is it now time to fade this trade? plus, an ai boost for bitcoin. question mark. we'll break down a new report on how ai could give the beaten down bitcoin miners a shot in the arm and maybe the cryptocurrency overall too. mickey d's getting its value meal moment. happy anniversary, google, and a

good day for the "l" in tim's blicep acronym trade. i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee. on the desk tonight, dan nathan then tim seymour, carter worth and julie beal. we start with the s&p 500 and nasdaq on eight-day winning streaks for the s&p 500, it's the first eight-day winning streak since last november and the strongest eight-day stretch in 1 years and finished up at least 19% for the year, the last four times there was an eight-day winning streak in play during the year. still, though, in the short term, there's plenty to contend with. a host of retail earnings starting with lowe's tomorrow along with target, macy's and t.j. maxx as well. then there's jackson hole starting on thursday with powell taking center stage friday followed by a number of key event as head of the big rate decision in september.

so, dan, we'll start with you. are you starting to feel good about buying this recovery rally? we've pretty much gotten back everything we lost and maybe even a little more from that monday drop we saw a couple weeks ago. >> i think it's tough to continue to buy here into friday and the unknown here. if i think about some of the other inputs here to what's going on with the stock market, if you look at yields and the dollar and look at crude and vix, they're all kind of round trip, those moves that it had over the last couple of weeks so those ingredients are probably pretty powerful to get the s&p back through those prior all-time highs. let's be clear, i did not think that was something that would happen as we got into the end of july, early august i think the lack of kind of fear that kind of gripped the market for months and months was kind of crescendoed lower into that event but that clearly kind of felt like a bit of a near-term bottom. i just didn't think we would be pressing up florida here. the last thing i'll say, if we continue to melt up into friday's speech to what jay

powell has to say it becomes a really difficult setup. if he's dovish, does the stock market rally on that after it's just come back 10% and made new highs? i'm not so certain so, again, i think jay powell probably doesn't know what he wants the market to react or how he wants the market to react to whatever he's got to say. >> we do know, tim, the markets have priced in an outcome and it will be up to the central bankers and jay powell included to either validate that view or try to temper it. so what's it going to be, do you think? do you think the market has it right with regard to the rate picture. >> we know it's date to have you today, dom, thanks. i think if you think about the market and the rate picture right now i would argue that the trade is higher and if you look at equal weight s&p actually breaking out to all-time highs, you're getting at least a combination of less reliance on some of the traditional leadership, but a dynamic where, again, you look at semiconductors, they're kind of

back to resistance but on a relative basis to the s&p. have performed and have picked up that pace and then amd and laggards have turned it on over the last couple of days. we're out of place where we want to hear from the fed that the economy is in a pretty decent spot. good news is good news and will continue to weigh and parse through every word but it's within 1% of all-time highs and have places around the world that i think are either at resistance or struggling a little bit. it's also been fascinating that yen carry trade that was so much a part of the tumult of august 5th, it's been quietly strengthening and, you know, that's something that is a market participant in a lower volatility environment you want to see. >> now, julie, this feels good for a lot of people. does it feel good for you. would you buy into the rally? >> i think for the very long term we have a lot of opt mick 'tis factors supporting us. in the near term we have

concerns about how narrow the market is and what the strength of earnings particularly in small an midcap land look like. guidance has been pretty conservative. i don't feel like management teams are overly ebullient. that's typically when we set ourselves up for disappointment. that's not the case here so that's what gives me confidence longer term but in the near term i'm not so enthusiastic or sure that some of these valuations make a ton of sense. >> the valuations thing is also an interesting point, carter, because one of the recovery trades since those market lows has been in computer chips and many of them in particular have rallied relatively strongly from the sell-off. what does that tell you about the strength of the overall tech sector and maybe by the value of the market writ large at this point? >> that's where the excitement is. you had the greatest sense prior to the sell-off and had the most aggressive sell-offs in big

names like nvidia, of course, they have been some of the biggest but what is remarkable for the year, the two sectors, of course, outperforming the market are the two tech sector, tech itself and communications dominated by google and meta at 40% is a tech sector, not at&t or verizon so holding aside the two big tech sectors, the biggest performer here today is utilities and leading even that is gold miners, it's been a defensive year even so. >> it's interesting and you talk about defensives. when i think of the leadership and tim mentioned the lagging leadership, if i look at mag 7 we talked about this, the nasdaq is up 19%. if you think about tesla is down on the year, if you look at apple, microsoft, amazon and google, they're all like up in line or less than the nasdaq and the only two outliers are nvidia and meta and so to me, you know, maybe this is that broadening out. maybe this is, like, the signaling of new leadership but if you're holding on to utilities as the new leadership i don't think that's a great

sign of a healthy market. i know carter isn't suggesting it but highlighting the fact that it is doing better than a lot of other sectors expected to be, i don't know, a bit growthier in the like so i think that relationship with the mag 7. so much emphasis about the concentration and high valuations there, the large contribution to earnings for the s&p which brings me back to what julie said, okay, well, we're still expected or consensus at 11% eps growth in 2024 and 14% in 2025 and so i saw goldman today suggesting that maybe revenue growth consensus at 6% for the s&p 500 is probably a bit high and you might see 4%, so that could signal to me that you hit peak margins. when you hit peak margins for a market growthy like in that could suggest we pull forward a lot of performance in the stock market and one thing i'd be hesitant about buying in as we're about to make new highs. >> this is a good point. there is a reason why. not that everybody is bearish

but there are folks who believe the market feels a little toppy given expectations and carter, i'll go back to you on this. you now put out a note this morning about a pairs trade you see involving not just the broader s&p 500, but also gold, as well. can you walk us through that? >> sure, so all of the attention on gold which is merited, this is a sloppy area of the market. always has been. before we look at the charts the philadelphia gold and silver mining level is the same as 1984. this gdx, the question is, is it bottom? it's a ratio chart and that is depicting its relative performance to the s&p. one thing divided by another gives you a start. let's annotate it. second of four durations so what we see here is that we're just now moving above the downtrend line. in effect, since the covid low or high.

another way to draw the lines is as follows, you'll see here what you want to call it a head and shoulders bottom, doesn't matter. let's put them all together and compile the charts and what we have here is i think the makings of an important bottom. again, this is relative performance of gold miners to the s&p. and interestingly, of course, the gdx is up 26%, 27% year to date. that handily outperforms the s&p up 17 and i think there's more to come. >> okay, so there it is, carter, that's the trade you laid out. let's throw it around here, this trade about the s&p 500 using a funding source to go into gold miners. tim, what do you think? >> i agree with carter. i believe gold is going higher and i believe it can go significantly higher over the next couple of years. won't be a straight line. if you take 2022, market rallied on the highest inflation we had

because that did sound the top and s&p up 55% from that point. guess what's up also 55% from that point? gold. i think gold is -- especially with a lot less volatility, by the way. so it's been a significantly better investment than owning the s&p and i think the backdrop and the setup for gold is part of what i think continues both from some of the macro but also some of the geopolitical, some of the political here. i also think gold miners which have been flat to gold and we know they typically at least historically have a betaof 2, 2 1/2 to the underlying have done nothing and, in fact, only in the last kind of three weeks to month, month and a half have gold miners started to outperform gold. that will continue. we got a lot of earnings out of the gold sector. that operational leverage is finally back and something i would stay in the miners. >> dan, are you excited about this gold trade, this gold miners trade as much as tim and carter? >> no, listen, i love carter's

work and looking at it relative to the s&p is a great way to do it. the way tim mentioned the beta historically of gdx relative to gold is also an important point of this whole trade. if you're not trading relative to the s&p you can look at it relative to gold. tim and guy have been pounding the table on every pullback in goal and it's made a series of high or lows and higher highs and now trading at this level that i think a lot of folks thought we'd be in some sort of calamity economically or marketwise if it was making new highs and the gdx has an opportunity to catch up to maybe those 2020 highs in and around 45 or so, so to me if tim thinks that you're going to see an outperformance or carter thinks we will, that would be my initial target up 10% or so. >> well, during our midday call today, to discuss ideas, dan also flagged the action in oil prices, they're now over 7% in just a week and almost 9% since mid-july. a deeper dive into crude oil and

the rest of the commodity complex outside of just gold. fra fra francisco blanche does a lot of work with those. let's talk about the oil trade and what's got you peaked in terms of interest for what is happening with crude. >> hey, thanks for having me. look, i think the commodities complex is pretty straightforward. you have some commodities like oil, gas, but also corn, wheat, and then you have -- you were talking about gold but also copper and aluminum. so this is not the 1970s. it's the 2020s and i think in gold -- just like we're seeing the trend up in gold for monetary trading, fiscal and geopolitical reasons we are seeing oil prices reverting on the back of frankly a lot more supply but also softer demand. so oil is really trading on

supply/demand fundamentals and have a bit of an air pocket with china right now slowing down here. >> what happened to all the geopolitical risk, francisco, and not only that, i'm a commuter. i can already see it in gasoline prices here in the u.s., as well, at least in the tri-state area around new york city. >> look, the geopolitical has yet to affect supplies in a meaningful way. back a few months ago when we started to see the rerouting of vessels outside the strait in the red sea throughout the cape of good hope into the southern part of africa, but in reality we haven't seen any meaningful eruptions arising from the geopolitical tension as we're seeing between israel and iran and i do think the oil market only really reacts when you actually do lose those physical barrels in a meaningful way and,

again, that's not happening. so, i do think there's a risk, no doubt but hasn't happened. >> i'm sorry. hey, francisco, thanks for joining us. talk about the solidarity between opec, opec plus. that's one of the most important developments in terms of oil and at least discipline where, yes, we know saudis always had to pick up the slack around the edge, but to some extent it's been part of the stability in oil prices and even near the bottom end of the range. i would argue oil prices have been remarkably stable in a volatile world. >> you're absolutely right. we've seen the lowest volatility in oil prices this year. the oil vix has been trading at around 20 with oil options and really very low levels, and opec has a lot to do with that, to be honest. the strategic petroleum reserve has also been used to stabilize

prices by the white house repeatedly over the course of the last 18 months, first releasing barrels but refilling and sending it to market so we've seen stability coming from both ends, opec plus and the spr so i do think it's been a factor then it has been holding steady but we are now getting towards the end of that and need china stimulus and interest rate cuts and need them soon because the economy is a little bit on the edge right now. >> all right, francisco blanch, we will see you soon. >> thank you. let's trade it. julie, we go to you first. the energy trade is one that's been lagging. do you like it now on the back of oil prices? >> you know, we're long-term investors and ten toes down. it's hard to understand the politics and predict them. i can't follow the politics of my first graders' group chat for the parents. it's not for me but it's really

important to pay attention if you care at all about the consumer because it has an outsized impact and it's politically very relevant as well so the movements that we've seen this summer have been a little unexpected. we haven't seen the cohesion that i think we might have thought and i think going forward we should probably be looking for more volatility from here. >> carter, let's go to you. a quick comment on the charts. does it set up one way or the other for that crude price. >> a couple things to keep in mind. adjusted for inflation crude right now is at 23, $24 a barrel, same as it was in 1985. it's a smaller and smaller input in the economy in terms of cost of the home, to the consumer and yet it is a big issue. as to the market, it doesn't matter at all, right? the whole sector is 3.5%. many clients say, look, i'll hold exxon and leave it at that. i won't worry about trying to figure out about schlumberger.

i would do it through xle. >> there you go. the sector side of things. thanks for that. coming up on the show we're watching palo alto networks in the after-hour trade. shares on the move after reporting results. details from the quarterly report coming up next and then we're flexing into tim's blicep trade. some of those names in the green today. how he's handling the moves when "fast money" returns. we're become in two minutes. >> announcer: you're watching "fast money" here on cnbc. we'll be right back. this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours.

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this will move the internet. ♪ ♪ ooh, ooh. -let's keep it professional. professional dancers! -ok! stay connected during your move with the best in home wifi. easily transfer your services in the xfinity app. bring on the good stuff. welcome back to "fast money." palo alto networks has reported beats on the top and bottom line. stock is up 2 1/2, almost 3% in after-hours trading and kate rogers is covering the conference call with the latest results up another 2 1/2, almost 3% on 2.3 million shares of volume. what gives? >> you mentioned beats on the top and bottom lines for palo alto networks, q4. the company giving upbeat guidance for q1 and full year as it says demand is likely to be strong in this environment. its full year annual revenue and

eps guidance had high end ranges better than anticipated and another highlight the board directors authorizing an additional $500 million for share repurchases. now, on the conference call its ceo nikesh arora is saying, quote, ai adoption is proceeding at a rapid pace. innovation is driving the speed of adoption while security might be an afterthought. at the same time, adversaries are leveraging ai capabilities to broaden attacks, better target organizations and scale their malicious activity beyond the capabilities of defenses that rely solely on human. much more to come on "mad money" with palo alto's ceo. back over to you. >> kate with the latest. thank you very much for that. julie, with the trade on palo alto. is this a name that you would want to own? >> yeah, i think this is really a compelling name. it's really got a lot of market leadership in terms of its reputation and ability to execute, which is so important

in security and what i like about security is that most companies, they don't switch out their security vendors. they just add them on top. it's incremental spend almost always because they're so concerned about any kind of data breaches that have such strong consequences so i think for this one it's really a category leader, the profitability is very strong and the guidance was pretty good. >> okay. all right. so let's talk a little bit about, tim, what we think about this palo alto trade. is this something where you feel as though this is one that's worth doing now that we've seen what the after-market action has been like? >> these are great numbers and this guide was slightly better than expected in a difficult backdrop and therefore continues kind of a return back to performance for the stock after a horrible q4 and that announcement that came out and a gap down. the question is always going to be what do we pay for the stock? at 31, 32 times ev, ebitda on

next year it's not -- it's not terribly expensive relative to itself but not terribly cheap. i think consolidation in the space more than offsets some of the weakness they've seen in the platform and a stock i would stay long but i think it will have volatility in any tape that's starting to challenge growth. >> let's turn to another part of the tech trade, amd. those shares jumping in the regular session after announcing plans to buy server builder zt systems for nearly 5 billion ducks in stocks and cash and lisa su joined jon fortten on "overtime" to talk about the deal and how it furtherers the company's ai goals. >> we've been investing for the long run and investing in that strategy, so it's about, you know, our silicon solutions which are really capable. software solutions which are really capable and now we add sort of the third leg of that stool which is the system solutions that really wraps it all together. >> all right. amd has been lagging. a number of its peers and chips lately, dan, what do we think

about the stock? >> we spent a lot of time speaking of dell's margins in the server business and super micro was last week or two weeks ago had 17% gross margins and just reported 11%. you look at amd with 53% gross margins and say to yourself this might be difficult for them to integrate this, you know, sort of acquisition, this is one of the largest they've ever made and xilinx was bigger than that so to me a low margin business. i'm not sure the verticalization is integral to them building out this platform and having competitive chips that go into the data centers so the market is saying yes right now which i think is interesting but not something that is that importantly incremental. >> carter, looking at the chart there, even with a 4 1/2% gain today, that's pretty much all of it. all of its gains happen today for the most part, carter. what do we think about this chart? >> yeah, i mean 24this is beta. speculating to say the least. to say -- its low, it loss 46%

of its high. and so now it's in a bit of a recovery but this is high risk, high reward, high beta. it's a very cyclical business. we know this and at this point i guess i would sell calls. >> there's the trade. thank you guys very much for that. there's still a lot to come so here's what's coming up next on the show. >> announcer: gains for the blicep trade. how lyft drives higher and estee lauder's reversal is fueling tim's acronym. google's ipo turns 20 and it's been a wild ride for the sultan of search ever since so what's next for the tech giant as regulators amp up the pressure? you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." a big day for two stocks in tim's blicep trade. he stay lauder has losses of 8% to close out 2% lower on the day. the company gave weaker guidance

in its latest earnings report and announced its longtime ceo would depart at the end of fiscal 2025. lyft continuing to grind higher up 3 1/2% with a gain, up nearly 20% in the past week. so, tim, are you flexing on these moves? >> it's hard to flex. in fact, i probably need to hit the gym a little bit. if you look at the performance of estee lauder over the last couple of year, all it does is continue to tell you how weak china has been, what it really did today was truly surprise on the beat but a lot of that was an sg and a ratio and essentially favorable tax treatment from restructuring. once the market sifted through that, stock meandered a little bit. in some sense we've been waiting for that reset. i think the transition in the ceo's chair is still something the market wants to see. i think if you look at the prospects for the company in terms of where we really have reset expectations both in terms of china and in terms of, i think, their business, the organic sales growth of 7% was

okay. wasn't fantastic but this is a company that's growing and i think that's where you start to get to a place where, look, at this point it's down 36% year to date. i think the two-year on it is closer to probably 60. this is -- i would argue -- a world class brand and something i think is an interesting place to own it. >> a lot of world class brands. ones i think many people know. what's the thought on estee lauder. >> i think the challenge i have is that it's so critical when you are in the beauty category you have a brand that's relevant and to see it losing market share in the americas is concerning. to see the guidance for china to still be down in their fiscal 205 is concerning. you really need both of those to work, i think, for this business to work and the bigger problem is that, you know, the ceo isn't stepping down until the end of next year. that's a long time before you get a sense that what the turnaround strategy is going to look like, right? no ceo is going to step in and not put their own fingerprints on it to make it look the way

they want it to look so it is this a holding pattern but i agree with tim, it is quality brand underneath it. you're just probably going to have to be very patient. >> all right, it's a big collection of brands we all know. coming up on the show we got a major milestone for google today marking 20 years since the tech giant's big ipo but with regulation ramping up what do the next two decades look like for the company as opposed to the last two and bitcoin miners lagging the crypto sturgis currency by a large margin. our next guest says there's a big opportunity for profits there. don't go anywhere. we have more "fast" coming back in two minutes. catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. back after this. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform,

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks are kicking off the week in the green solidly so with the s&p and nasdaq notching eight-day winning streaks. the dow jumping more than 200 points today and some names trading at all-time highs. we're talking t-mobile, abbvie, regeneron, all amongst those trading at rarefied levels.

20 years ago google started trading on the nasdaq. here it is. eric schmitt and larry page ringing the bell on august 19th, 2004. once an unconventional silicon valley start-up. the company is now worth more than $2 trillion. the juggernaut that goes well beyond internet search these days and bring in deirdre bosa on their 20 years of public trading. it's a big milestone called alphabet now. >> it's a huge milestone. it's more than 7600% returns since that ipo. that makes it one of the best investments of the century. back then it was just a $23 billion company focused mostly on search and competing with yahoo! and aol. remember them? today it is worth over $2 trillion and has over 90% of the search market. also has businesses in cloud computing, pixel smartphone, smart watches, chrome browser, android operating system, gemini, the list goes on and on

and on. it's made acquisitions of youtube for less than $2 billion back in 2006. there was double click which expanded their reach into digital advertising, motorola. eventually sold at a loss you might remember but did help the laywork for their hardware ambitions and also arguably one of its most important, there was deep mine in 2014 that helped solidify their position as a leader in generative ai so lots of lots of different milestones along the way and depending where you sit wall street or washington, google or alphabet is a full-stacked profitable flywheel or a wall garden keeping upstarts out and stifling innovation and that is really the crux of the challenge going forward. what are regulators going to see -- who are the regulate that's will be in washington and on the other side of the atlantic looking at that google dominance. >> hey, dee, it's dan. obviously this is a company that you followed for a very long time and it's interesting as you're celebrating the 20th

anniversary to bookend exactly, 20 years ago there was such a great upstart challenging big companies like microsoft which had just kind of come off a bunch of regulatory stuff and here we are with google faced with that same sort of situation. how much do you think this is going to weigh on the shares? we talk about this all the time. it's usually in the offing when something finally happens, but the stock is still down from its highs, the s&p is about to make new highs and i get it. this is just a snapshot in time but i'm curious. do you think it will continue to weigh on the shares which is the cheapest of all the mag 7 names. >> you're looking at the exact same things as i am. i know you have valuations in the back pocket. i was about to mention it. it is the cheapest of the mag 7. it was trading below 0 times price to earnings last time i checked which makes it the cheapest. so obviously the uncertainty of some of that antitrust stuff, it's starting to weigh but i think it's not just antitrust but also a big part of its future and its past has been search and search advertising,

still its bread and butter. that's where it makes the majority of money to pay for other things like pixel, smartphones and self-driving cars, et cetera, et cetera and we've never seen this challenge to traditional search and feels like google is meeting that challenge but there's a lot of really interesting competitors, upstarts like openai itself, like perplexity that people are using. myself, i use an ai chatbot more than i do google traditional search these days. >> that's an interesting development for sure and one we'll see take decades maybe to develop and that big war on megacap tech lane. we'll see you later on. carter, the charts, we've noted it's a laggard. does it look like any upside that will happen any time soon. >> it's very interesting. right? as a group we've talked about the valuation. it's cheaper multiple than s&p but there are no free lunches, so to speak. it's not just lying on the

ground unobserved. unnoticed so do we go in? does one -- we'll talk about the chart next. sometimes there are traps. but its relative performance is -- as to the chart itself, it has sold off to its rising 115-day moving average and holding there. my hunch is to be long. >> okay, and julie, carter wants to be long. what do you want to be? >> yeah, i kind of agree with that. i think what's so difficult about google right now, it is facing the most classic innovator's dilemma of all with generative ai, does that take away from its search business? does that make search which is basically a monopoly less valuable? and, you know, i think what's so interesting about this company is that we've gotten to this point where search has degraded to the point where when i search something i automatically put reddit in there because i know i'll get a better answer on reddit than google and we know there's been a major degradation in the quality of search. is generative ai going to be the thing that makes search better

or destroys the business model that they have? i personally think that they're thoughtful and will be the thing that propels them forward to the next leg and makes them again the leader in search but it's not a certainty so you have to have that in mind. >> tim, it sounds like julie thinks it will take years for this thing to come to fruition. what do you think? >> i think every time we counted out google in terms of ai, this has been a conversation for a year and a half and it's been wrong and i think you get to a place here where also the antitrust is more bark than bite, i think jeffries has a note with that title. i look at the valuation. it's cheaper than it's ever been in the last decade relative to its 12-month forward ebitda so i think this is a great opportunity. underperformed the nasdaq significantly over the last month. i'd be buying weakness. >> thanks very much for that trade. coming up on the show, a crypto comeback. why our next guest is looking at bitcoin miners for a major opportunity and how the ai surge is helping fuel that optimism.

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welcome back 20 "fast money." marathon digital lagging far behind the underlying cryptocurrency itself this year as you can see but a new report suggests these businesses could be in in store for a huge boost thanks to of all thing, well, what else, artificial intelligence? here to explain is matthew seigel, head of digital assets research. this is an interesting development here because usually we talk about underlines and the miners and things and how they should be high beta, bigger returns. what gives between that relationship with bitcoin versus the miners. >> there's been a huge divergence year to date. bitcoin is up, say 35%. these miners are essentially flat so typically the higher beta plays on bitcoin and in the latest downdraft they sold off quite a bit and we think the

market is missing a pretty strong underlying fundamental. >> why? why have they been selling off? >> just lack of interest, high beta, the unwind of the carry trade. nothing specific that has to do with the bitcoin miners that we can see and what we do see is that week after week these companies keep announcing new deals with ai companies, hyperscalers. we've seen at least four bitcoin miners announce close to a billion dollar revenue deal to transfer their energy to power ai, right? so we know gpus take twice the power as cpus and it takes about four years right now to connect to the grid in many locations. these miners have grid connections and with a little bit of capex in some of these locations they can repurpose the facilities in less than one year. the time value of that money bringing that capacity on three years earlier is huge. and these are typically companies with i have to say it

bad balance sheets, either lots of debt and went bankrupt or just continually issuing equity at the market. what these ai bids are doing is lowering the cost of capital and providing a more sustainable financing stream for these companies. so, on our numbers, if they were to repurpose just 20% of their electrical capacity, we think the stocks can double with no change in the bitcoin mining profits so the numbers look very compelling. >> matthew, help me with this and we spent time with the gtf, the gold miners and had the huge move in the dollar lower, 4% doesn't sound like a lot in six weeks. it's a big move and seen gold make new incremental highs while the dollar has been making relative lows over the last few months but one thing that's not participating in this move is bitcoin right now. so, you know, it's had a series of lower highs and lower lows. how do you explain the disconnect between what gold is

doing and the way bitcoin is acting? >> a few factors are at play. the unwind of various carry trades and growth which has been struggling a little bit. when you look at bitcoin's correlation with the nasdaq it's at a two-year high, well lbelow the highs we had in '22 but a two-year high. there are four sellers in the government. the german government sold all of it. american government is selling silk road related and two bankruptcies where creditors have been paid out so with all this selling behind us and this is a typical seasonal pattern where bitcoin tends to struggle in the kind of one to three months after the having which was in april and pre-election as the market comes to grips with whatever candidate wins we're in for four more years of reckless fiscal policy, the history is that bitcoin really hits its stride at that point so we're buyers here and think it

recovers. >> can you connect the dots for us right now? given everything you've said, the ai trade on this particular move is linked to the power usage and the conversion factor and how to actually make that work. i would argue if you look at a stock like that, that has been a derivative ai play as well on this. how do you connect the dots simply about the ai trade versus the bitcoin miners. >> the daytona center companies are trading at north of 30 times -- $30 million per megawatt of electrical capacity they control. $30 million. the bitcoin miners are trading at $3 million, right, so now it's not a complete one for one transition. they need to find customers, they need to buy the gpus or have someone else buy them and install them. the companies that have been most aggressive core scientific,

tarrowolf and another one after the bell, btbt. as more make the announcements those will outperform because it brings their cost of capital down. >> thanks for bringing that to us here. we appreciate it. all right, tim, let's go to you with thoughts about this. this is an interesting thesis with regard to crypto bitcoin and the bitcoin miners vis-a-vis ai. do you think it works? >> i think it does. for 95%, both professional and retail, they couldn't name five bitcoin miners if you asked them. the reality is that the asset class continues to grow and broaden and the dynamic around connectivity is unbelievably strong and unbelievably interesting, so i think the regulatory framework for bitcoin and digital assets is a friend of those investors here and i think that's we willy the story.

i think people are incrementally adding to those portfolios and the bitcoin miners are interesting here. >> carter, what do you think? >> you know, i mean, i think what was in the first part of the conversation, these are highly indebted operations, chronic issuers and diluters and makes it exciting if you get it right. wulf tripled in four or a five-week period, three or four months ago so, yeah, if you have it as acknowledge what it is, it is highly speculative and why not. >> all right. here we go. there's the bitcoin trade. coming up, one of these things is not like the other. a few restaurant downgrades out of wall street today while mcdonald's is bucking the trend in a big way. take a look at that. how the fast food giants is managing to diverge from its peers is coming up next. more "fast money" is coming up after this. u need clem. clem needs benefits.

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downgraded. on the flip side you have mcdonald's breaking out today on a price target hike in evercore. mickey d's up over 8% this month alone. julie, let's talk about the dow component. >> yeah, i think mcdonald's looking a little bit better from a pricing standpoint. i think people have a little more conviction that, you know, the menu items and the discounting that they've been doing is going to take hold. you know, on the downgrades i think there are all kind of interesting. these are more of the growth stories and sweetgreen in particular, what's hard on that one is the valuation is quite high and the profitability still isn't there and so it's hard to feel super confident on what exactly the terminal profitability will look like, right? we are all looking for the next chipotle. we all want to find it but it's hard to know if something like lunch is going to work, right? this company really needs to be

able to do dinner, as well, in order for the average unit volumes to match what chipotle can do. >> you know, it's interesting. the downgrades of these, maybe the analyst doesn't cover cava. it cloe closed at a whole new high up 40% and to julie's point this is not a profitable company. something very much in the zeitgeist of quick service here. i love it actually. i also like sweetgreen but it's interesting though that shak got to a certain level and stopped going up, same thing, you know, in the sweetgreen but cava seems very rich to me too. seems like mcdonald's has come out into many so of these names and looks like it's ready to reverse. >> carter? >> that's right, dan. the two big heavy ones, starbucks and mcdonald's, look at the s&p 500 restaurants group and just two weeks ago before the pop in starbucks and now in mcdonald's was trading at its

own relative low and a bit of rotation out of some of these smaller less premium names into the two big weights in the sector, mcdonald's and starbucks. >> by the way that piper downgrade had a lot to do with pricing power or the lack thereof in the future. coming up next your final trades. keep irit regut ghhe, ys. amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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>> announcer: final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers. all right, final trade. let's go around the horn. julie first. >> if you're looking for a good quality and a little bit of exposure to the ai, it might be worth looking at. >> tim, look at that chart on

raytheon, lockheed and then look at boeing. most of their business now is actually defense and global services. i like boeing here. >> carter. >> well, miner gdx. >> and dan. >> yeah, i think google, the alphabet is bua y on regulatory my mission is simple, to make you money, here to level the playing field for all investors. there is a market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. let's get together call me 1- 800-743-cnbc. i am excited for