in this case, they got frustrated or concerned with the loans after his comments about advertisers and go f yourself, a sign of perhaps this business model isn't going to pan out in the very near term. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." tune in to overtime today when we weigh in on everything going too far too fast perhaps. >> "closing bell" starts now. >> thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine. this make or break hour begins with streaking stock. we have a little work to do over this final stretch, for nine up days in a row, we'll see how things settle out. take a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go. the major averages have been low since the start, taking a bit of a breather ahead of the fed powwow out in jackson hole later this week. a more defensive bent today with staples and health care two of the better performers.

tech, they have been higher throughout, nvidia and tesla have been giving a little bit back. a bit mixed there. the vix, it's back above 15, albeit slightly. yields are mostly lower today across the treasury curve. we're watching all of that. it takes us to the talk of the tape. how far can this rally go? as the summer heads to a close and potentially tricky fall looms. let's ask our headliner today, tony pascarello is from goldman sachs. he's back with us at post nine. i'm always quoting from your notes but good to see you in person. so two weeks ago monday, we had this panic attack. market freaks out. we have had this incredible comeback. are we good? are you comfortable with where we are now? >> i think the bullish narrative has three pieces. the first is q2 earnings growth. earnings growth in general continues to print better than expected, better than fears. the second piece is the economy in our view is going to remain durable.

we forecast second half gdp growth at 2.5%, and the fed is on the precipice of delivering rate cuts in the next 18 months. that's a very solid foundation for the bulls. those are the big dynamics in the game. >> that was, what, a rumble of fear that was overdone on many accounts? whether it was positioning, because of the unwind of the carry trade. plus this panic attack over the fact that we had that jobs report the prior friday and we said, oh, my gosh, what if we're closer to a recession than we think? >> i think the sequence was one part a data trade and the second was a positioning trade. we had that run of disappointing u.s. activity data punctuated with 114,000 print on non-farm pay rolls which flipped. and then the doj kind of in that context make a move that ultimately the market rejected. that set off the positioning trade which i think part of it was just this force deleveraging

from all corners of the market that, yes, hit the fever pitch that monday morning with nikkei down and the vix at 5. i think that was a moment in time, a lightning strike. global margin call, which like i said has given way to a more solid fundamental story. >> is that pretty much what you're hearing from the hedge fund clients you cover? so closely, the best of the best, the biggest investors in the world. >> look, i think folks are still holding their breath a little bit, but what i have observed from my conversations and our franchise was i think the discretionary trading community, the folks we really call on and cater to, have done a nice job taking risk down in july and -- june and july, and we're positioned to play some offense in august. we saw good numbers last week. they caught some of that bounceback. the non-discretionary training community, ctas, they get a lot of attention. i think those are the heaviest hands in the down trade.

that selling is done. the most interesting feature of our franchise activity was the buyback story which is a big piece of our flow. we saw it very clearly kind of ran two times normal, essentially reached record levels. corporate america stepped into the breach. we think that's worth about $5, $6 billion a day right now, and it could be a trillion dollars on the year. so we're back to corporates being the biggest sponsor of the market. >> that's what was in the note that i think i saw yesterday from your trading desk. momentum traders plus buybacks are enough stimulus to keep stocks climbing higher. we forgot that the blackout window was there because of earnings for buybacks and now you're going to start hearing more and more. maybe even more so because of the upset we had initially in stocks. >> i think that's right. in a way, it was a very conveniently timed sell-off, if you will. not that it wasn't ugly. of course it was, but you were in positions for corporates to act with force, which is what they did. the other thing i should have

mentioned is retail, of course, the biggest holder in the retail clas. they held the line, they continued to buy, and point to point, that has been the right judgment. >> what's good enough this week out of jackson hole? >> i think it's the fed is alive and well. and coming to a theater near you. if i'm powell, i don't think you have a whole lot of incentive one month out from the september fomc to paint yourself in the corner 25 versus 50. i think the messaging will be we're aware things have slowed down. we made a lot of progress on inflation so we're ready to act, we're going to act soon, but i think they're still in some form of data dependency. our view is 25 at each meeting this year, september, november, december. quarterly next year. one for the road in early '26, and we're sitting here in 18 month, the funds rate is 3.38. >> you don't think powell needs to be as dovish as he was hawkish in august of '22 when

stocks were off 3.5% that day. is he not going to go as far as he did then but in reverse? >> i think he's got a heck of a hand to play now relative to then when i think inflation was still over 8%. he was very much on the back foot. >> he had no aces in his cards. >> he did gnaw. again, now he can avail himself with 525basis points as in when. so i think we have something like 33 basis points priced for the september meeting. again, we have a full month of data. most important along that path, of course, will be the pay roll number in september 6. i think he's right to wait to see that card turn over. if pay roll prints 150,000, unemployment rate doesn't rise, then the market will probably expect a price of 25 basis point opening salvo, and that's fine for risky assets. >> you're looking for 200 basis points of cuts over what time period? >> that takes us now to the start of '26. so it's three sequential -- >> that's a long runway. >> can everyone see that far

into the future? i don't know, but the point is the fed knows they're in restrictive. they're going to gradually take that back. if we're right and that comes alongside this durable economy that i mentioned earlier, 2.5% gdp growth in the second half of this year, 150,000 jobs a month down the line. core inflation ultimately headed back to 2% y think that core interplay between growth and the fed, between growth and interest rates lands in a friendly place. my guess is at 22 times, but it's a good backdrop none the less. >> what about this point that rick made when he was last on, i know you heard our conversation, the point that the market is full. that all of that news about the fed is already in, like what possibly couldn't we know at this point? you see what the bond market has been doing as well. >> and so where that leaves me is despite the level set i gave you which i think fundamentally is quite favorable, it leaves me thinking risk/reward isn't all

that alluring. as you say, the market has done a bunch of work over the past eight or nine days. nvidia, a 40% move all by itself. i think the market is going to have to fightthosis two variables. i think the election is going to become a tricky variable for stocks to weigh. i think figuring out what is the distribution of outcomes between two candidates who are basically neck and neck but have wildly different visions of how the economy should operate and wildly different economic policies. i think that's going to be a very noisy variable for the market from now until november 5th. >> you mentioned nvidia. take the election back to november. we still have next week, nvidia earnings on the 28th. the importance of that day for this market now given what the market has done and what nvidia has done is what? >> so i think most of the folks who come on the show have probably forgotten more about nvidia than i will ever know, but i still think it's as high profile a stock as there is in the marketplace. it's still the number two weight in the index, rounding up to 7%.

and so i think it matters hugely, particularly in a week that otherwise would be pretty quiet and pretty liquid. i think it's going to be a show-me story. not just as it relates to revenues and net income, but what is the status of blackwell, and the more important takeaway, what does it tell us about the ai narrative regarding ai spend and ai capex. for much of the past two years, the ai narrative was profoundly bullish and essentially one way. now you have owned up kind of the other side of the debate around the roi, around roic, so i think the market is going to get a weigh point thattells you the spend is still there, and companies are going to deliver that roi sooner than later. >> now we have a show me. spending is up 40% to 50% year on year representing exactly what you said, this new trend. at some point, investors have to see the pay off. you can't just have hope and a prayer. >> that's right. i think the bigger setup for mega cap tech which has been a

keep your eye on the ball story, is i think relative to the hottest moments of june or july, the shine is off the space a little bit. why? because the eye popping nature of these beats is a little less than it had been in the prior year and a half. i think we all know and it's well narrated, the forward earnings premium of the seven versus the 493 is set to narrow pretty considerably, and again, the ai narrative is a little more two-sided. i still don't want to lose my -- lose that anchor point in these stocks. if they deliver 18% earnings growth next year on top of the buyback, on top of the capex, i still think it's a good story. >> do you still see these stocks as, quote, sword and shield as you described them several times in the past? you're able to play offense, but you're also playing defense because of the balance sheet, the capex, the buybacks, in some cases even talking dividends

like we were not before? >> big picture, i do think it's elements of sword and shield. 18% will feel relatively anticlimactic, but well above the 499. the biggest and best balance sheets in the world, like i said, they're generating an immense amount of capital. they're returning that in the form of buybacks and dividends and reinvesting that on a level no other company can touch. >> do you believe in the broadening story more substantially that it has sustainability, and does that maybe hinge more than anything on what powell says later this week? >> in a way, i think it's already taken shape. i looked at this before we came on. there's 11 headline sectors of the market. all 11 are positive year to date. the laggard is real estate, that's still up 5%. the market has been brioader thn sometimes people give it credit for. is it top heavy? of course it is, because mega tech has earned that top heaviness, but it's been decently brought.

the equal weight s&p made a new high yesterday, and spx off the shelf cap weighted hasn't done that. i think that's a very different judgment than i want to sell large cap, i want to sell mega cap tech to buy small cap. that's still a bridge too far for me. >> thanks for coming by. that's tony pascarello joining us here. let's bring in liz young thomas of sofi and a cnbc contributor, jason snipe of odyssey capital advisers as well. good to see you. welcome here. tony, sounds pretty positive to me. you sound like you don't match that. i know that laugh. >> the data right now suggests that positivity is warranted. i think what we learned a couple weeks ago is that the market is not bulletproof, and it makes sense to broaden out your portfolio if it's not broad enough. i say that for a couple reasons. number one, the tech trade has lost a little bit of momentum.

and it's bounced back quite a bit. we're almost back at the highs on the s&p obviously driven by a lot of that mega cap group. it's bounced back a decent amount, but we do still know those are the easiest names to sell when people get scared. you want to make sure you're still exposed to other things in risk assets. the of the sectors that typically do well when the environment shifts, and we know that the environment is likely to shift come september and november with the fed. >> i'll play your analogy. yes, it maybe proved it wasn't bulletproof, but what if it has a bulletproof vest and what is that is the still good economy, still good earnings, still hanging in consumer. and rate cuts that we haven't even had yet? >> so, rate cuts are not typically something that the market celebrates throughout the cutting cycle. we might celebrate it as they're approaching and then in the beginning of it, but then as they continue, if the data slows down to a point that people

start to get nervous, and i think we have seen that markets have gotten nervous when data comes in cooler than we expect now, which is a tone shift. if the data slows down more than markets expect during a cutting cycle, the cuts start to get interpreted as reactionary rather than proactive. >> unless they're just normalizing, right? >> absolutely. >> you're making a point that if they have cut prior, throughout history, they have done it because the economy has needed that level of cuts. and the more they have cut is because the economy has been weaker and weaker and weaker. >> right. >> might be different this time, dare i say. >> it very well may be. and a lot about the cycle has surprised me, and i have gotten a decent amount of it wrong. i'm open to being wrong again. what we have to remember is that as the fed is cutting into a weakening economy, it can get dicy. it is tough for the market to digest that and interpret why the cuts are coming. and right now, we're so sensitive, not just to when they might start cutting. i think we have gotten

comfortable with it begins in september, but the size of the cuts. i'm on the side that i don't think 50 basis points is that big of a deal because they raised on the other side when we were coming into this, they raised by 75 basis points three times in a row. i don't think 50 basis points would be an alarm, but i think the market would be a bit alarmed by that. i think really more so we're going to have a digestion issue as we work through this, and even if we do secure a soft landing, the data is going to contradict at different levels. some of it is going to be slow, some of it will be hot, and the market is going to have to react to that, and we're very reactive right now to every little piece that comes in. >> jason snipe, what do you think about what both liz and tony had to say about their market views? >> yeah, no, i agree with a lot of what has already been said. i think disinflationary narrative is very much intact. we have a retail sales number that was solid, and labor is softening, so to liz's point, i

think the soft landing story is very much intact. i think as it relates to friday and what we'll hear from powell, i think he'll toe the line, be right center stage as far as his commentary. i don't think he'll be overly dovish. i definitely don't think he'll be hawkish. this is the ultimate telegraph. he doesn't need to double down on being overly dovish. he'll acknowledge the disinflationary narrative we have all seen. i think there will be a moderate pace of cuts. i don't think there needs to be a 50 basis points cut whatsoever because the data is supporting that, and i'm following the bond market, what the bond market is telling us. that's obviously looking for cuts, and if we do it at a moderate pace, 25 basis points, you know, over the last three meetings of the year and then going into '25, i think that will be effective. >> if we're at 5600 now on the s&p, what seems reasonable to

you between now and the end of the year with the election looming, got to get through more earnings between now and then. we have to figure out this cutting cycle. and we're going to obviously watch the trajectory of both the economy and the consumer. >> well, i think honestly, i think we could see another 5%. if i turn to earnings, what we have seen already this quarter, you know, 95% of the s&p is already reported. we're at 10.8% earnings growth, which is very solid, and i think it continues to get revised. you know, higher going forward. i think we could easily see 4 to 5% growth from here, which i think would be a solid return for the year. again, it's been a great year thus far. a lot of, to your point, earlier, a lot of it has been priced in in terms of monetary policy. but i do think we end higher as it relates to price action for this year. >> how do you answer that question? 5600 now, what's then?

>> so i think the other thing we learned in the correction that we had a couple weeks ago is that afterwards, the market needed good news in order to bounce back. so i think now in order to get back to those highs and surpass those highs i think it's absolutely possible if not probability because we're pretty close and the momentum is here, in order to surpass them, we need that good news. i think that good news can come in the form of what jason just said, which is retail earnings. we had a good start with walmart on a big lens into the consumer, which was strong. what i think we need to hear from other retailers particularly those this week, is the same theme, that they're not worried about a huge slowdown in consumer spending for the remainder of the year. we need to hear guidance is at least solid if not improving. and that we are not supposed to be worried about the consumer because that was the thing that was going to break the whole thesis. >> this is good, though, right? good news is good news again, and bad news is bad news. >> absolutely. it was very confusing. >> before, a warped view, you want things to be bad because

then you get fed rate cuts sooner. now we're just playing on an even playing field. >> i agree with that. it's a more rational place to be that good news is good news and bad news is bad news. we have retail earnings that should help secure if we get up to the previous highs and beyond them, and then the next big thing is that jobs report for august which comes september 6th. >> how do you look at the broadening story that i asked tony about? he points out maybe the market is a little more broad than people want to give it credit for. and that's probably true if you look at the sectors that are hitting new highs, for example, today. we're not talking about technology. we talked about financials, health care, now i know staples have a defensive bent like health care stocks do as well. but there are a lot of other sectors the have done well. i'm looking year to date on my screen and i have half at least that are up more than double digits percentage points. >> not to mention things like gold have -- >> record high, 2500 we were talking about yesterday. >> tony is absolutely right

about that. there are other places in the market where you could have made money this year and people have made money this year. it's as if those places are raising their hand, notice me, don't forget about me. it's true, there has been a broader story. what i said earlier in the show about you want to make sure that you have exposure to the sectors that would do well as the environment shifts, so as the fed lowers rates, if we come out of this yield curve inversion finally, those sectors are health care, staples, utilities, energy, and then you do want to own the treasury curve as well. so making sure that there's an allocation there. a lot of that sounds like it's purely defensive. but in reality, it's also a dividend play. you could even just buy a dividend etf or get some dividend exposure as rates are coming down. >> still like the two-year? >> i do. they haven't started cutting yet. it's going to work soon, scott. >> who says it hasn't? jason snipe, you have august 28th circled on your calendar as an nvidia shareholder? >> 100%, scott.

i mean, and we have heard all the capex spending, tony alluded to it earlier from all the hyperscalers and that will ring true, it will show up in the numbers for nvidia and i think obviously we have seen the price action, right? how quickly the stock got bought up since the carry trade unwind in the early part of august. for me, i think we're going to see really solid numbers and i'm looking forward to it. >> make or break for the near term for mega cap depending on what nvidia says or no? >> it's important. even if you look at what the futures imply about how the market could move that day, it's on par with fed meetings, on par with cpi data, on par with jobs data. so it's a big deal. it would be wrong to say it's not. >> especially given the comeback from two mondays ago. it's just been remarkable. i enjoyed the conversation. liz, thank you. jason snipe, our thanks to you as well. >> let's send it to pippa for a look at the stocks. >> shares of amer sports are

jumping on track for the second best day since going public in february. the finland based pairing beat revenue with sales up 16% year over year while boosting its full year guidance. but bank of america is under pressure after regulatory filing revealed berkshire hathaway has sold more shares. warren buffett's conglomerate has shed 13.9 million shares over the last three trading days. but still has an 11.9% stake in the bank. shares are down 2%. scott. >> pippa, thank you. back to you shortly. we're just getting started here on "closing bell." up next, your retail rundown. target, macy's, gearing up to report this week. matthew boss is standing by with what to expect. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back. we're entering the heart of retail earnings season. kitical reports on tap, and reads on the consumer coming from macy's, target, nordstrom, and others over the coming days. joining me, the number one ranked retail analyst on the street. matt, welcome back. >> great to be back. >> you feeling better about the consumer today than say you were a couple weeks ago? >> it's interesting because what i would say was the fear was overblown. i think there were a number of transitory items in july that have now reversed course in august. i think that what you're really seeing from a backdrop of the consumer is it's a concentrating consumer, not a slowing consumer. consumers concentrating around events. you have back-to-school coming up and the consumer is there. you're seeing traffic accelerate. and the consumer is concentrating to value. you need value at brick and mortar to offset convenience. so the consumer shopping in a number of different ways.

that's a byproduct coming out of covid, but i think the reality is consumer spending remains stable. >> so who wins best in your environment now? >> i think you're going to get off price tomorrow with tjmaxx that kicks off and shows the stability of the consumer, when you deliver the value, and you have the brands that they want in a convenient setting, the consumer is there. and i think you're going to get that compounding model coming out of off price, kicking right into earnings tomorrow. i think it's best in class brands, it's off price, so tjmaxx, ross stores, burlington, birking stock in the brands, abercrombie in the specialty retail. it's really innovation, differentiated product, and value as well as convenience on the e-commerce front. that's the playbook in my opinion. for the second quarter, but then for the back half of the year. >> i mean, there's enough optimism in your mind that you're raising your own numbers for the companies that you just

named, correct? >> we are. we see beats across the board with off price. i would say it's more winners than losers within the department stores and specialty. but remember, that's been the playbook. those are more challenged subsectors and have been for the past couple years. i think as you cited in the intro, we had positive earnings out of the low end with walmart, and so i think you're seeing signs that that consumer stability is there, and like i said before, they're concentrating, not slowing on the spending front. and i know you have talked with a number of prior guests about recessionary fears. i actually think the consumer has been in a recession. i think we have seen a selective recession where the low-income consumer has been under pressure and the high-income consumer now with the s&p hitting new highs again, i think that higher income consumer, the middle income and the aspirational

remains plentiful on the spending side. >> how do we think about department stores here? you know, i hear more ads and chatter about turning to department stores into pickle ball courts than as places to gather and spend money as shoppers these days. what about you? >> look, it's been a subsector of retail that's been in transition. it's been in transition for probably the last five years. i do think you're reaching a point, macy's approaching 350 doors, in the last chapter as they cited in consolidation. you're seeing brands on the wholesale front that i think were in, again, later innings in the consolidation. so i think as you think about brick and mortar relative to e-commerce, the acceleration towards convenience, towards the digital side, coming out of the pandemic, was extreme. you're seeing a normalization back where the consumer from the convenience perspective, brick and mortar is there from a need

based and a point of sale. and so i think there's a byproduct where brick and mortar coincides with the e-commerce experience, but you have to have experiential, you have to have differentiated product, and lastly, you have to gif the consumer a reason to actually visit the brick and mortar store. that's where i come back to value. it's not good enough to be the same price as your e-commerce counterpart because you actually have to go into the store. so it's either treasure hunt, it's value or product you can't get in other places. that's what the department stores right now are trying to figure out. that's what right now off price has figured out, and why they're taking market share. >> what's the story with lulu? >> yeah, so i would say lulu international growth unchanged. 30% plus growth. still there on track multiyear. it's north america where you have seen the pivot. so our numbers now embed zero improvement in north america for

the back half of the year. look, they had some execution issues. they had sizing, colors. i think the transition to the younger customer has been under play, and that has also caused some of the execution from a sizing perspective. but they need innovation, and they need to continue to drive that innovation because it's a very competitive marketplace. you have private companies, you have other companies on that athletic space that have been challenging them for years. so execution, i have always said, would be either the continued win for lulu or it would be the potential moderation in growth. right now in north america, you are seeing a moderation in growth. >> wow, so i almost sense a little bit of a sentiment change in your commentary there, because when i asked you that same question or certainly a similar one the last time we visited a few months back, you seemed pretty resolute that

lululemon was going to be able to fix whatever issues were there, and maybe it was because of international, you weren't too -- i don't know, concerned about the vioris of the world and other names. now i almost sense a little bit of doubt. a little bit of doubt that they're going to get this right. >> it's a good call out because one of the changes, and as i have said, one of the key drivers in this space is innovation and differentiation. and that has been a bit of a mishap more recently. they have delayed some of their innovation on the key women's side that was a driver of the inflection, and the growth reacceleration in north america. we actually flagged that about a month back. took the stock off of our best ideas, and cut our growth for the back half of the year in north america. so as i said, its execution, i think even greater than competition, that would be the potential hang up for lulu, and right now, that's exactly where

we stand. so our model, zero acceleration in growth in north america in the back half, but with 30% opportunity continued growth in international, this is still a double digit revenue growth company with high 20s margin. it does deserve a premium multiple, but the next leg of potential acceleration for the stock is going to be tied to what that north america growth profile looks like. >> what's interesting is you used two words that seem to be relevant for nike as well. execution and innovation. or lack thereof. and that's why i ask you the question again. what's this company's future? >> yeah, look, there's a lot of different pieces moving right now with nike. because you have this transition or kind of this intersection between lifestyle and performance right now. and the problem is that they're falling short on both. so on the performance side, you have a lot of competition and different competition.

hoka, smaller brands out there. on the technical side that have no question taking share. on the lifestyle side, nike is pivoting where you have historical franchises like jordan, like the dunks, which had been generating consistent double digit growth, but the consumer is now pivoting to other brands. so nike is working on franchise management, as well as refacing innovation, but right now, you're in -- i would call it the in between period for both. and from an execution perspective, it has absolutely not been flawless. the next leg is the transitional two quarters of franchise management with the potential for reacceleration of growth as we move into 2025. but it's a big if at this point. >> i always enjoy our catch-ups. that's matt boss, jpmorgan, joining us on "closing bell." >> up next, surging sales. netflix moving higher.

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we're back. netflix shares are jumping after the company's ad commitment soared more than 150% for this year. helped in part by its deals to air key live sporting events including the christmas day nfl games. netflix shareholder jason snipe is still with us. a cnbc contributor.

what do you make of this news? >> talk about a company that's hitting on all cylinders, scott. i think as i look at a mature company that has 277 million active users, subscribers, i should say. 45% sign-ups are the ad supported tier sign-ups. 40 million are monthly active users in the ad business, and that was only 5 million last year. so as they moved into the foray of live sports, i think it only paves the course of what they're going to continue to do moving forward. i'm very excited about this name. i can see it traveling back to over 700 intraday last time it was there was october of 2021. >> it obviously has had a great run, but you see a little bit of a sideways dec-- let's throw th chart up. it documents this big move that the stock had, great comeback, of course, and then a near sideways move. is this enough to get that

needle moving further? >> i think so, scott. i think as they -- because listen, this nfl piece is just only the beginning. the wwe is part of the course as well and other live events. i think this is only the beginning of what they'll do as folks continue to cut the cord on analog and look to the streaming side. and then i look at the ad supported tier, which i think is still in the early stages, password sharing as well. there's a lot of levers for them to continue to pull. also, how they're growing globally. i think there's continued opportunity from a global perspective as well. so i do think this name has more room to grow, and that's why we continue to like it here. >> how about palo alto if you have to like that today, up near 8%. >> yeah, that was a really nice print yesterday. beating the top, beat on the bottom line. you know, and they raise the guidance. now, part of that is that

acquisition which is an ibm asset on cloud security which i think is going to be accretive to the stock going forward. again, as it relates to cloud and cybersecurity, i mean, these are issues that are not going away anytime soon, so whether you want to play it via the etf, bug, or hack, or look at some of the individual names like a palo alto or crowdstrike or whatever, palo alto happens to be our favorite because they continue to innovate. if i look back at their new go to market strategy as it relates to the platform story, that was when the stock started to sell off earlier this year, but we're starting to see that in the thes. >> were you at all tempted by what's happened with crowdstrike, if you like the space so much, maybe you wanted to up your exposure there? >> yeah, listen, it was down 40% off its highs, so i think crowdstrike is another great name. i mean, you saw the reach from an enterprise perspective and all the clients and business

they have. it is something we have been eyeing and looking at potentially adding into our cybersecurity portfolio. >> all right, we'll talk to you soon. that's jason snipe. >> up next, tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. pippa stevens is back with us. >> as consumers look for value, unlimited pasta is back at one restaurant giving those shares a boost. all the details coming up next. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning.

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we're less than 15 from the closing bell. let's get back to pippa. >> boeing is lower after the company paused flight tests for the 777-x after it found damage in a structure of one of the wide body aircraft. the issue was discovered during scheduled maintenance, and it's not yet clear whether the grounding will impact certification and delivery for the jets slated for 2025. >> and shares are in the green after the company announced the return of olive garden's never ending pasta. the promotion is launching one month earlier than in 2023 with raymond james saying it's in response to the more intense value and promotional industry environment where value hooks can drive strong share gains. this is not one i'm rushing to try. >> all right, pippa, thank you.

coming up, shares of eli lilly are popping thanks to positive data surrounding its weight loss drug. we'll break down how it could impact the stock going forward. the bell is coming right back.

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coming up next, we get you set up for earnings in overtime. toll brothers reporting les than an hour away. d ch me,anmuor of course, when we take you inside the market zone next.

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or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. we're at the closing bell market zone. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, angelica peebles on the data, and steve kovac looking ahead to toll brothers reporting in overtime today. michael, i begin with you. standsout to you or what? >> when the market slows down it probably makes sense to broaden it out and say where are we, what have we gone through? big picture, the underlying trend is positive. this looks like a correction in a bull market. yeah, it's fully valued, 21

times forward earnings. when earnings are rising and the fed is about to ease, you can usually hold the valuation. that's not necessarily sort of an emergency at this point. do think we're stillsensitive to this idea, we got to keep the economy on a short leash. you look at the action today. dollar down big. treasury yields again sagging. two-year note yield not up that much from the lows of a couple weeks ago. even oil is trading soft. it seems even though we're in a good news is good news market, the setup going into jackson hole is fed has to get moving at the same time the economy hangs together. definitely a little more defensive tilt. you're not seeing semis rage away to the high. >> health care, staples among the sectors. >> after a 10% rip in eight trading days, you know, you're allowed to back away a little bit. >> speaking of health care, eli lilly playing a big role today. >> that's right. lilly shares hitting a 52-week high today after data showing

its weight loss drug cut the risk of diabetes by 94% in people with high blood sugar or prediabetes. now, it is already approved to treat obesity and diabetes, but it would take it a step further to prevent diabetes. even before the news release, wells fargo naming lilly a top pick. analysts saying lilly building a moat between manufacturing and data on the health benefits. >> we think we're at the lead. we plan to stay there. and we're competing on every axis we can think of in what is a revolution for health care. that's the ability to maintain healthy body weight in your adult life and ward off all the serious diseases that go with being obese or overweight. >> scott, we'll get a full look at those results later this year. back to you. >> thank you. to steve kovac now on what to expect from toll. tell us. >> yeah, here's what to keep an eye on in this one report. a lot of the focus is going to be on morgan rates ahead of the

fed's anticipated rate cut next months. they're also a luxury home builder with homes costing in the $1 million range. falling rates can have a big impact there. also, web bush analysts said there's potential for more people buying homes in this category thanks to the recent rise in the s&p 500. after the numbers the streets are looking for, eps of $3.31 on revenues of $2.7 billion. we'll get those results around 4:30. >> we'll look for you then. thank you, steve kovac. >> all right, mike, a few minutes to go here. doesn't look like we're going to go nine in a row, but you can't be too greedy. you don't often get to eight. nine is even harder. >> it's harder and also, it was welcome when we end these fluky streaks because it creates a bit of artificial suspense and maybe obscures what's really going on. the thing i lean back on is if you look back at the prior eight-day win streaks they tend to happen within bullish trends. it's not usually bear market

rally type activity and often out of a correction. the fact we have had a real broad participation on this move higher in the last couple weeks is definitely a net positive, even though as i say it's a little defensive. you mentioned the health care working today. well, eli lilly is like 13% of the health care etf right now. the equal weighted health care is kind of softer than that. you have to kind of know what you're using as a benchmark when it comes to these things. >> like discretionary. okay, discraigary is great. well, amazon and tesla are such a huge part of that. >> or they're weighing it down at times. i keep thinking that not to say you have more payback to do, but it feels like we wouldn't be too far once we rebuild toward the highs if we get there, and people are kind of celebrating. there's been a little bit of fomow in the market in the last few days as the streak got to seven or eight days. massive volumes. call option, that kind of stuff really going.

the three times leverage nvidia etf, which exists, has billions of dollars in assets under management. so it's not that far below the surface. even though we had a good scare to rekindle that type of activity. makes it interesting going into late august. >> thing about target, coming too. after what we got from the retail sales number and then walmart and lowe's. >> and the hard good stuff. i think that's the part of the economy we're fixated on when it comes to what could fed rate cuts theoretically do. where could the pressure be taken off? it's in hard goods, housing to some degree, which really the housing stocks, the home builder stocks, again, they're father below their highs than you might think considering we had this pretty aggressive rebound off the lows. so we want cuts. but for the right reasons at the right pace. it's been the story for a long time. we'll see if that's something like the message we get. >> we have toll coming. in overtime. we have target coming tomorrow. then of course, the big event,

the powwow out in jackson hole and the big speech by the fed chair on friday. have to see how the market reacts in the lead-up to that. we'll give a little bit back today. i look forward to seeing you tomorrow. i'll send it over to jon fortt. >> that bell marks the end of regulation. projects with care ringing the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. profire energy doing so at the nasdaq and the nasdaq and s&p 500 breaking their eight-day win streaks with minor losses while small caps saw a more notable pullback today. energy was the biggest drag on the s&p. consumer staples are actually up about half a percent. that's the scorecard on wall street. welcome to closing bell overtime. i'm jon fortt. ahead on today's show, tom lee joins us with his latest thinking on the