flyers. can't help but think it's reporting near the same time that peloton is. >> yeah, exactly. i mean, look, you see if -- obviously it's a sustainable business, you just don't know what the real run rate here is of growth. you know, that's a familiar-looking chart from those names. >> competing with microsoft is hard. thanks, mike. that will do it for "overtime." ""fast money"" starts now. >> thank you very much. right in the heart of new york city's time square, this is "fast money" and here is what's on tap for tonight. eight is enough. no, not the '70s tv show, the eight-day winning streak for the s&p and nasdaq is over. so does this mean the rebound rally has run out of steam? we will debate that. plus, blockbuster results, new data from eli lilly showing its popular weight loss drug reduces type 2 diabetes risks by over 90%. and then boeing's new wide body

headache, chart the next move in commodities and berkshire blues. i'm dominic chu in studio b. on the desk tim seymour, dan nathan, guy adami and katie stockton, managing partner of fair leaf strategies. we will begin with stokes cooling off, the s&p 500 and nasdaq snapping their eight-day winning streaks as you can see there. still two of the year's big winners managed to buck today's breather and rip to all time highs. netflix jumping a percent and a half on positive news for its ad business, more on that story in just a moment. and eli lilly surging 3% after a long-term study showed zepbound slashed the risk of type 2 diabetes by a whopping 94%. the news hit diabetes and obesity device makers, names like decks con, insilit, abbott

labs falling sharply lower. angelica people's spoke with eli's ceo earlier today and joins us with the recap. what can you tell us? >> dom, this is a three-year trial that's finding that the drug can actually prevent diabetes in people whose blood sugar levels are close to that high but not quite as high as diabetes. it is already approved to treat obesity and diabetes but this could be another step forward and a way for lilly to reach even more people. nearly one in three americans has pre diabetes so there is a lot of potential here, but the path ahead is a little murky. lilly's ceo today telling us the company will talk to regulators will next steps, skeptical that lilly can get approval specifically for pre diabetes but saying if it does that would be a significant opportunity. either way, lilly's ceo arguing these results could help make the case for more insurance

coverage. >> the dual acting inhibitor actually not only keep you thinner, but keep you healthier. and we're beginning to learn that it keeps you healthier. so i think we need to argue for that and both the federal government doesn't pay for these, many employers don't, they should. this is going to save money for our country in the long term and keep people living a healthier, longer life. >> this is part of lilly's plan to show that the health benefits go beyond simply losing weight. we will look to hear more from them. >> angelica with the latest on a big story in health care. our next guest says the results could position zepbound as a best in class weight loss drug. let's get more with dr. patel. this is huge. 94% possible reduction in type 2 diabetes risks. just how much does this resonate with the medical community? >> yeah, dom, it's a pretty big message not just for the medical community but as you just heard one in three pre diabetics, i

would even say as we expand pre diabetes screening we might find that that's a higher number. that's pretty astounding. i've always been a fan as the evidence has come out of not just the benefits of weight loss but we've seen it time and time again not just with lilly's drug but also novo nordisk around kidney and heart disease. we're also testing it in the area around addiction, memory, prevention for other neurodegenerative diseases. this is true live a game changer, especially if we can prevent people from getting to the very chronic conditions that are resulting in not billions but trillions of costs to the health care system. >> dr. p., it's tim, thanks for joining us. my question is didn't we already know this? didn't we already know that the pre diabetes, you know, treatment was something that was part of why this has been such a powerful story? and ultimately i guess this is maybe our job, but this is in the stock is my view. >> right. tim, you're absolutely right,

yes, we already knew this, however, what i think you can say very safely from trials up until we got this surmount data on pre diabetes is that so much of it really was on the primary kind of outcome of weight loss. we all know that that was in diabetics but remember -- and even in the surmount trial we are looking at the clinical end point of preventing diabetes but looking at the surrogate markers as well as the addition of the weight loss. everybody had said, by the way, this is probably just the weight loss. i do think that that answer needs to be teased out. you're right, that's baked into the stock. what changes is thinking about this as a preventive drug. for a prediabetic i have diet lifestyle modifications at times i can use drugs and there are other things that we can use but we don't have much of an argue nl to give people. again, i see this -- we talked about this, tim, it reminds me of statin conversations. it took trials like surmount and others the analogous trials in

the statin setting to say, hey, there's effects beyond the lowering of your ldl and that can be cardio protective, help with metabolic syndrome. i think this is the same path and that probably is not baked into the stock and probably not thought of in a more clinical broader spectrum. think about using this as a preventive drug not just an obesity rug. >> dr. p., tim was clear what we already know. what do we not know? what sort of trials would you get really excited about, this one, again, it's great and the numbers are massive, but what are some other, you know, conditions that might really excite you and what sort of trials are in the works right now? >> yeah, so we know we've talked about some of the trials that are in the works around addiction. this is a dual -- remember, there is that dual mechanism, gip, glp. we have two out of the three main kind of parts of the body that are being like agonized or at least mimicked and trying to decrease the metabolic pathways. i would love to see this in

other conditions that are affected by the metabolic pathway, everything from ovarian syndrome, also the perimenopausal area. there's so many things. the part that's hard, what i need to tease out is is this just the weight loss? we heard about the incredible weight loss at the highest doses of 15 milligrams. what if you didn't have that weight loss, would you still see these metabolic effects? many of us think you might. i need to see that trial data. that needs to be clean and clear. i know that this is what lilly is thinking about as they're continuing on and monitoring these patients in the surmount trial, but i know that this is part of the future. and don't forget about retatriptide, we don't have that data but that's taking that triple g effect and that is another place that i think we're going to see just as strong signals not just for prevention but for some of these other metabolic diseases. we need to tease out if just the weight loss and that explains everything or are there other

metabolic side effects? i hope that that's what we can see more data on soon. >> dr. patel, quickly, who can forget about repapetride, none of us here clearly. there is an election coming up, how much of a game changer -- i'm assuming this would be bipartisan -- would getting insurance coverage mean for these companies and these drugs? >> yeah, i think that you heard the ceo say they need to go after the syndication. i'm still bullish on them getting a pre diabetes indication. doesn't mean it's going to be easy, it just means they have the data to support that and have the agency have a serious look at it and insurance coverage follows that. don't forget our very good friend thinking about the inflation reduction act we just saw those prices come out, the question will be at what point in time will it take for a drug like that drug to hit the threshold to medicare negotiates on it and we can see changes to the list price. first steps first, getting the clinical and label indication and then seeing insurance coverage but i think this is why

people are going to say is this just a weight loss drug or is it doing more than that? we're seeing more evidence it's more than that. >> dr. kavita patel, so many questions and so little time. thank you very much. we'll talk to you soon, dock. katie, what's traded? what are the charts showing you? is this a stock lilly that you want to buy? it's already the most valuable pharmaceutical company in the world. >> it's a very strong long term uptrend, however, short term it looks as overextended now as the major indices. so after this very strong run up over the last couple of weeks and right up against final resistance 966 and after a 63% run up this whole year, i think, you know, maybe it's a better sell. >> all right. what do you think, guy? >> katie has been spot on. i will say this, if you look where it traded down to earlier this month, we traded down to the prior highs of about 760 or so, which was the high back in march. so technically it did everything it needed to do on the down side but to katie's point now it

actually needs to prove itself on the upside against those prior all time highs from i think late july or earlier this month. this stock gives you the ability to trade around a long position and i think this is one where you might want to be taking profits on the back of it. >> it's interesting, we don't talk about lilly without talking about novo nordisk, we might see other trials taz relates to this. novo ais a cheaper stock than lilly. i think it's a two-horse race right now. i know we spent a lot of time on biotech upstarts that are getting into this space but maybe their acquisition targets more than competition. novo looks interesting to me still off of its highs and a more fair valuation. >> they are not competition. the market is saying they're not competition. >> upstarts? >> no, i think you're right, those are acquisition targets but this is the debate here. we all know what lilly is going to do for the next two years, the question is is there anyone competing on the kind of scale?

even 18 months behind. the valuation that lilly tells you that nobody is close and right now nobody is close. >> all right. so an interesting trade for sure, no doubt about it, because of the dynamic with just in essence two-horse race right now. i wonder, though, if you take a look at some of the other mega cap pharma, bio pharma names, they've been left out of the conversation right now, much because of this glp-1 phenomenon. who is going to play catch up among the big guys. describing something one of the smaller guys that could be in that space as well, but pfizer and merck, they're trying, some have maybe even failed and given up. where is the opportunity there? is there a catch up to be had anywhere else? >> i think the catch up is not to say i'm playing for glp, pfizer, first of all, they may have an oral treatment, the bottom line is their entire pipeline of drugs that they invested $30 billion after windfall profits from covid, that's the story here.

for bristol-myers, for pfizer, to some extent j & j but that's somewhat idiosyncratic because of their talc overhang. you're talking about companies that have done zero in the last few years. those are valuations that i think are a lot more interesting. >> record highs for lilly. another company that has also hit record highs today is netflix. this is all after the streaming giant closed its up front ad sales period with 150% increase in sales versus last year. netflix is advertising the president said in a note that the increase in sales was in line with expectations after the company brokered partnerships on a host of upcoming projects including squid games, wednesday. >> squid games? >> yes, squid games. >> and shae"happy gilmore 2" amt others, dan. >> we've been talking about the ad business for a long time and folks have said this was a huge about face, this he talked about never doing this sort of thing and, again, there's been a lot

of like kind of volatility around the subscriber growth. if you go back and look at the last five years that's really what's driven the stock. we know they're going to stop giving that sort of data, but if you think about this ad-supported model and think about their crackdown on password sharing it's just pure margin. at a time where a lot of the studios have pulled a lot of their content back, you know, it is kind of an interesting juxtaposition that you have these new models, you have an ad-supported model and to me i think it makes sense. the stocks come back all the way here, it is very few mega cap tech stocks that have done that. i'm sure katie would say it's a big extended the same way that the indices and a name like lilly is. >> what do you think, guy? >> look at netflix, go back to the fall of 2021 the last time netflix was at these levels, had that ridiculous selloff, it's gotten the entire thing back over the course of the last two and a half, three years. you're up against pass resistance, now, again, netflix's world, we've said it for a while, everybody else resides in it.

when you're up against a level like this you're betting we are going to have this breakout to the upside in new level. i would submit we probably stall here for a period of time. >> i mean, tim, from a valuation side of things, we are talking about 33 times forward earnings, that's not out of the realm of reason in the mega cap tech, media and telecom space. >> it's not especially when you consider they are the only one that has nearly this scale and free cash flow. we heard from them in their earnings they're going to spend $17 billion for content and some op ex, but, what we're concerned about across mega cap tech is this spend. netflix will grow mid teens, double earnings essentially 22 to 24. that is why you're spending it. growing mid to upper teens in a world where i think -- the argument from the analyst community is they're less exposed to some of the cyclicality. the ad market it's a recent business but their broader business is seen as being somewhat more resilient even if the consumer weakens a bit.

i think they're right. i think you pay this for the stock. i think they are right in terms of the chart but i think it's going higher. >> this is a chart that's higher highs and higher lows. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out, but every time there is a pull back it's not slight, it's a decent-sized pull back. it's not without volatility. >> it's remarkable it's lifted more than $100, right, over the course of just two and a half weeks. so i do think it's at a proving ground as guy mentioned that resistance around 701, it's a big hurdle for it, if it spends a couple of weeks up there i would feel better about t like it's released from that resistance. as it stands in a market that has seen a pretty significant pickup in volatility and as we get into a season alley weak period i think it's a real challenge for it. >> may i ask you a question, dom. >> what's that? >> i'm not familiar -- what's the game? >> "squid games." any never seen it. >> i haven't, either. i've then seen one episode. >> is it some survival of the

fittest type of thing. >> it's a survival game. >> if tim and i were in the game together who do you think would emerge victorious? >> i might have to go with guy on this one. >> and why is that? let's go there right now. >> let me bring it back here. netflix their market cap is nearly double that of disney. disney talked about streaming being profitable but what's holding them back is the other crap, it's the parks. >> parks. >> and networks and stuff like that. it's interesting back to what guy said they are such a pure play on this, we spent so much time over the last ten years going through the different iterations of all of these major communications companies, entertainment companies and what they're doing in streaming, what they're paying for it and it comes down to netflix, that's it. >> i will leave you with this kind of overriding thought about netflix. it's original content for those guys, no doubt about t but it takes a huge amount of science to cure rate a library and pay for that library economically to get people to want to use that

as their central streaming hub. i think a lot of people have done that with netflix as opposed to, say, disney plus or paramount plus or, you know, whatever else is out there streaming. so it's something to pay attention to. >> the scale is huge, it's 500 essentially if you look globally in terms of if you add in the ad supported and that's the story. it's become a cash flow machine and i think you're paying up for it. >> coming up on the show, toll brothers is on the move an reporting it's results, the numbers from that quarter and what it could mean for the housing sector overall. plus, stocks are snapping their strongest eight-day winning streak in 21 years but is this just a breather from the recent rally or could there be some pain in store? we are going to gate when "fast money" returns. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪

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bring on the good stuff. next on the red carpet we have gina costa... looking simply stunning... with this season's hottest accessory. -[ cellphone vibrates ] -oh, what's this? she's opening her fidelity app... to buy that stock... for exactly the amount she wants... no fees or commissions... what will gina do next? gina has roller derby at 6:00 pm. i'm there. get started investing for as little as $1. talk about easier investing. welcome back to "fast money." we have an earnings alert on toll brothers. the home builder is higher after hours on a top and bottom line beat. joining us for that story is steve kovac and the at least 1% maybe gain. >> about 0.8%.

let me give you the results. eps a good beat, $3.60 compared to $3.331. revenue a very small beat, $2.72 billion versus $2.71 billion. also the company raising the four year guidance on deliveries and pricing with one quarter left to go in the fiscal year the report shows folks are watching for a -- this report, rather, is what folks are watching for a read on the high end housing market especially ahead of the expected fed rate cut next month. that's why we're seeing guidance going up. the ceo saying in the earnings release and laying out the momentum he's saying saying net signed contracts are up 11%, mortgage rates are the lowest in a year and expected to go lower from here and what he calls a, quote, imbalance in supply and demand saying also those trends are expected to continue into next year. that's all we're going to get for now. as far as ceo commentary the earnings call it tomorrow morning. >> thank you, steve, for the update on toll. tim, let's talk a little bit

about whether or not -- >> let's talk. >> -- whether or not we have -- we're going to talk about this. why do we think that the toll results are important and are they indicative of the broader housing sector? >> i think there's a couple dynamics are toll. for the last five or six quarters they've been beating on gross margin but the elements they've guided is that the second half at least some of the specs they have pre announced will be lower margin sales. i think for this entire group it's how much you want to spend. if you look at where the stock trades relative to its five year it's actually kind of expensive, 15, 20% expensive, ten year or longer it's pretty much a buy. i think that the home builders have had a tremendous run that's been tried to some of the macro around interest rate sensitivity and i think you're chasing here and i think they've run out of gas. >> what do we think, katie? >> i'm looking at t i feel like the signs of exhaustion are there for the sector maybe for

the next six to eight weeks or so. a pause to reset maybe. i don't think now is the time to be adding exposure but rather maybe reduced or on the sidelines. >> i'm with them. in terms of their average selling price basically $975,000, so this is obviously the upper end which means the unemployment rate is probably going to affect them less but it will affect them at some point. i think if you are of the belief, which i am, that the unemployment rate is going to surprise people to the upside, all these home builders at some point are going to run out of gas. maybe toll brothers is the last three or four of them but they will all run out of gas soon. coming up on the show stocks are snapping their longest winning streak of the year as investors await more earnings data and jay powell's comments from jackson hole. what to expect and how to position that's coming up next. and yet another altitude change for boeing, shares are lower again as the aerospace giant halts testing for the 777-x plane.

what the latest black eye means for the company as the new ceo settles in. you're watching "fast money." we're back aerhi ft ts.

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is enough. the market snapping the longest winning streak of the year, the dow, s&p and nasdaq close ago fraction of a percent lower today. one of today's notable laggards is lowe's, down more than 1%, cutting their full year outlook citing expected weakness in sales. it comes a day before reports from target, macy's and tjx. the dollar is falling so its lowest letter since january. kti the fifth negative day in six and gold settling at another record high. katie, what's the take? >> you know, we've had such a good relief rally, i think it's a gift from the market in a way. the damage was done and it was done even before volatility spiked in the way that it did. there was a loss of intermediate term upside momentum and it positions the market for a seasonal corrective phase. so for the first time today we recommended to our clients that they start to reduce exposure but concentrated in stocks that have broken key support levels. we're waiting to see the loss of

short term upside momentum more meaningfully than just today to say, okay, now is the time to get hedged to some degree, whatever is comfortable, to manage risk through a potential correction. bigger picture, though, we move to a long term neutral bias for the first time since late '23 very recently and we did that because of long term indications that it's slowing. we don't have that indication yet from price, i mean, we're still up right near the highs for many, many securities and yet we do think that a range bound environment is highly likely over the next six months or so and it's a harder environment to navigate in that we have to become shorter term perhaps, maybe positioned for those intermediate term swings within the context of a range. >> tim, are there things that you feel you would be lightning up on right now, just things in the market that seem a little bit toppish given what we're seen? >> i was lightning up on eight is enough back in the day before everything, i was going more wide schadlow do he. >> love the white shadow.

>> i think that was an underrated show. anyway, names to be lightning up on. to me consumer discretionary is a place we have had a big rocket whether dynamics around m&a, activist investors, we have had decent numbers. ultimately i think we are at peak margins and a handful of these consumer discretionaries, especially in apparel, especially in athleisure. you get into the restaurant space, so i know we've had an interesting couple weeks where mcdonald's and what not has been rallying back, some of the dynamics around a cmg, but it all adds up to a place where i think there's another leg to fall here. i don't think we've seen the consumer weaken and i think these names are going into this period of peak margins. while eight is enough, guy, i do think, you know, there's other places to go. >> tom, i was a coolidge tie guy and ken howard whilst he was alive was a huge "fast money"

guy. i think it was three or four appearances on katie was on with tyler hosting with the vix at 13 doing nothing for months she said you will start to see the vix move in ways that probably would surprise some people. i don't think she thought it was going to 60 but she was spot on with that. i don't think it's over, either. i don't think that move to 60 was a one-day event. i think there's morp vix to come, more volatility which i think means down side in the market. >> you said this, yield is down, dollar down, crude down, vix down. that's all a good little cocktail for stocks up, right. so, again, we're going into friday, who knows what's going to happen, i think it's a difficult setup from the stock market's perspective but to tim's point about peak margins, i was talking to dan niles earlier today and he referenced the fact that four of the mag sevens saw after q2 earnings their forward estimates come down. if you think about where revenue growth is expected next year, versus where it might end up, goldman was talking about 6% expected revenue growth for the

s&p 500, might look more like 4, we know that expectations are 14% year over year earnings growth, probably seems a little high here. as we get to the end of q3, which is not going to be that far away, let's see what that guidance is because that could be the next shoe to drop despite yields expected to come down 25, 50, 75 basis points over the next few months. >> what's interesting our markets team and robert hum and our producing team looked at this eight-day winning streak and crunched some of the numbers. 93% of the entire s&p, 93%, higher in terms of the performance in that eight-day winning streak stretch. only 36 in the entire index actually went lower during that stretch and only 4 stocks fell by at least 3%. that's how wide ranging the recovery was since that, you know, kind of move that we saw. >> two dynamics also that are important during this period. the dollar is off 4.5% since the beginning of july. this is a massive dollar bear market quietly happening.

today even fell off 60 basis -- and yields are coming down. this is very good for certain companies but it's ultimately telling you a tale of something. >> all right. you don't want to miss a huge lineup of interviews from the federal reserve's annual jackson hole symposium starting on thursday morning. you can see some of the big names coming up right there. coming up on this show, more bruises for boeing as yet another plane delay weighs on the company, the details on how the new ceo may navigate those issues ahead. and we're going off the charts with katie stockton what she's seeing in volt tilt as the come back rally loses some steams. the technicals when "fast money" returns after this. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns?

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nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing. gentleman more bad news for boeing and this time it's the 737 max and it's not to blame for if. they are tumbling after finding issues with the long delayed 777-x jet. phil lebeau has all the details. >> dom, this is a story that came out late yesterday afternoon. we want to show you the 777-x

because a few people said the 777 there are a bunch in service. are those the issue? we are talking about the stretch version of the 777 that is in flight testing right now. this is what it looks like and it has been in flight tests for some time. during one of those tests over the last couple of days with the faa test evaluators on board they discovered a problem with a thrust link which is essentially what uses the power from the engine to propel the plane going forward. it's not a mechanical part, not part of the engine but it is crucial. there is a redundant one on the plane so the plane was able to land but they discovered cracks on that one as well as two others being tested so they are going to not do any more test flights until they can determine how to resolve the situation. for the 777-x this is the latest in a bumpy road to coming to market. they first announced this plane back in 2013. it's four years overdue. back in 2013 they said, hey, we

will have it in service by 2020, then it was 2022, now the entry to service target date is next year. though there's more than a few who are saying i'm not sure it's going to make make it for next year. for the new ceo this is the newest challenge for him and his team. the 777-x they have 481 orders for this plane, there is demand for this aircraft, especially the long haul market. they want this aircraft. emirates has been clamoring for the 777-x. so take a look at shares of boeing, we're going back all the way to 2020 when the plane was first -- first supposed to go into service, the question now becomes will this delay -- how much will it push them back? can they still get it into production and begin deliveries so it can go into service next year? yet more questions for boeing. dom? >> all right. phil lebeau with the latest on boeing and the 777-x.

thank you very much. guy, down component and it's been a tough one for the stock and investors. what are we going to do with this stock? >> that's an underestimate. scott kirby the ceo of united airlines said he was encouraged by the conversation that he had, more than en crammed was the term he used. it felt like the stock was on the right course, it was going to do this lower left, upper right, get into the high 190s, nobody talking about t waking up one day and say look at the move in boeing about you they can't get out of their own way unfortunately. i will still say you have to try to play this from the long side here although technically speaking i'm sure it's hanging by a thread. >> tim. >> i am playing the long side. i know the this 777-x has been a disaster, they've already written off $6.5 billion, this is like that 787 wing flaw that was a big issue there. you have to go into the segment breakdowns for the company and understand that only about 44% of last year's at least top line

was related to commercial aircraft. i realize commercial aircraft has also been under some pressure, but their defense business, their global services businesses are big, big businesses. lockheed is at all time highs, raytheon is at all time highs. i understand the challenges and understand that between now and probably the mid part of '25 there is no cash flow here but then i think you're back. >> katie, this is one where a lot of folks have been buying dips and buying dips and buying dips. where can we feel comfortable saying over the medium to longer term this is an actual buy? >> i think if you own it you have to be sure that it holds on to the 160 support level. it's very key support and i honestly think a retest of that level does appear likely based on the momentum gauges. so i'd be careful with t it's obviously range bound and what has been a very strong tape. so it has poor relative strength, we just need to be adherent to those stop losses. >> guys, thank you very much for that. coming up on the show we

have volatility settling down a bit from the surge earlier this month but katie is digging into the technicals to tell us where it could be heading next. plus "fast money" movers catching our traders' eyes, what you need to know about bank of america, paypal and apple. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is backn o. itw is it me... or is work not working? at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. your people work better, your customers are happier, and todd... well... he's practically euphoric. practically. so, let's get to work. (♪♪) did you ever worry we wouldn't get to enjoy this? [jeff laughs maniacally] (inner monologue) seriously, look at these guys. they are playing great. meanwhile, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month.

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welcome back to "fast money." agricultural commodities are getting their mojo back after this month's spike in volatility. is it time to buy inheat and corn and cattle. katie, you flagged this for us today. what are you seeing about the soft side of kmotities? >> this morning we noticed that dba an etf representing the space cleared its 50 day moving average. we put out a long idea a couple weeks ago because we noticed it was starting to react to an oversold condition within its long-term uptrend. this is an etf that has positions in the likes of cocoa and sugar and, you know, corn and wheat. we really think it looks interesting and also lends some diversification at a time when we might need it. >> okay. now, within that trade you mentioned a lot of the components. what about the corn trade, the wheat trade, everything else that's happening right now, are those things that we feel comfortable getting into?

>> they are all turn around plays and with turn around plays you do have more risk but also more potential reward. looking for one at corn via the corn etf you will see a long term down trend has been in place. we tracked something called the dee mdemark indicators. when you have a new countertrend signal within that down trend happening near long term support for corn and this follows what was a very timely sell signal in 2022. it has us paying attention. it's a nice supporting factor for the space. >> now, that's the agriculture side of things. with regard to the volatility regime at large for the markets, let's talk a little bit about what the charts are saying about whether or not that volatility not just in stocks but other parts of the market can continue. >> it is a big deal what we've seen so far for the vix. it shifted very abruptly mind you from a low volatility psych toll a high volatility cycle with that spike. what we think will happen here

is that a new higher floor will be for the vix around the 200 day moving average which is just about 14 on the chart and we feel that that is the new higher volatility cycle and with that you tend to see an equity market that's just more challenged, more range bound, choppier, and it's also associated as you know with the big rotation. the big rotation is also very meaningful in our work in that the relative strength behind the likes of nvidia, apple, both of which show signs of short-term exhaustion, you know, this is happening at the same time. so i do think it is a real challenge as we come into year-end. >> one of the things that also seems to be happening is it's hardly been a comeuppance to passive investor, passive investor has been rewarded in the last three weeks but there is some sense that passive investing is giving us this coiled spring. do you agree with that? >> i think it begs for active management. this is the time at which we will need to be more creative,

i.e., agricultural commodities, managing risk in a meaningful way and in a systematic way and we can't just sort of buy it and forget it in terms of the spyders or something that's broad based. >> what do you think about this whole process. >> i think about hogs. >> excuse me. >> lean hogs. >> katie is on to -- i will throw one we haven't talked about in a while n january of this year the cfo from archer daniels put on administrative leave for accounting regulators. it struggled since then, but if archer daniels can get out of their own way on the backdrop that katie just gave us, here is a stock at 10 multiple that's really interesting to me. the way i would play did in the equities world is apd. m. >> you mentioned risk management. if i'm looking out to friday's expiration and i think that this jay powell conversation might cause a little volatility in the markets i think what the stock market is telling you that they like the idea that he's going to be dochish and point to multiple

rate cuts this year, the options market is implying less than a 1% move between now and friday's close which is insane if you think about the potential where the sentiment and what the setup is. to me a half a percent whether unger we're going to go higher on friday during the day, i mean, most zero days expiration options are pricing sometimes a little bit more movement. >> there is the volatility picture overall. coming up on the show we have bank of america, paypal and apple all catching our attention in today's session. why these names are standing out for our traders and how you can trade them. and here is a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim is chatting with the ceo of confluent. you can catch that full interview at the top of the hour on "mad money" with jim cramer 6:00 p.m. eastern time. "fast money" is back. ( ♪♪ ) morgan stanley is partnering with the women's tennis association to remove boundaries... ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone.

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this will move the internet. ♪ ♪ ooh, ooh. -let's keep it professional. professional dancers! -ok! stay connected during your move with the best in home wifi. easily transfer your services in the xfinity app. bring on the good stuff. nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing. all right. welcome back to "fast money." a few "fast money" movers on our radar today. first up shares of bank of america falling today after a berkshire hathaway filing detailing the firm sold an additional $550 million more of the stock since august 15th. the move dropped berkshire's holdings in the back to 12% over the last month berkshire has sold over 100 million shares of

bofa. they still hold more than 090 million shares, dan. thoughts here, it's lightning the load but is it a bad sign? >> when you put in context of selling some of that apple, looks like some of the big winners over the last fewyears and apple is a ten-year hold, i think, you know, bank of america just doesn't seem like with that overhang you want to take a shot here because they seem to be reloading on the sell side. >> book value in bank of america i think came out at $34.70, when they reported earnings was trading $44. we talked about it on the desk saying it will trade down to book value, it did, that's where you reload but not here at 38 and change. >> what do we think, katie? >> i have a four-month sell signal in bank of america and it suggests it will be range bound at best but very strong support around 34. >> tim? >> i'm long. i've been long it for a long time. i recognize this has been a slow process of rerating, part of it's been some relief on the regulatory pressure side, also

capital give back, it's a story where money center banks are starting to have a sweet spot that at least until credit deteriorates i think you stay there. >> i like t buyers and sellers. >> we don't always agree with each other. tim and i often disagree. >> try not to. >> let's talk about paypal, the payments company announcing its expanding its partnership with aggen. the company is touting the new fast lane process to accelerate guest checkout flows for u.s. customers. fintech and paypal, is there where you want to be? >> it's one i'm in and has certainly been a two-year process of bottoming and building a base but it's a combination -- katie may have me on the charts but you have a management team that's had to be aggressive about implementing strategies to increase monetization. there's some news around apple they have to open up essentially the payment wallet dynamic and this is something that could be

great for paypal. stocks moved almost 30% in 17, 18 sessions. i think you priced in a lot of bad news and i think there are catalysts ahead. >> despite that valuation and despite pricing in the bad news, i'm with everything that tim just said but you have a margin situation that is declining and so obviously you have this pull forward during the pandemic and margins have been coming down pretty substantially over the last few years or so, but that chart and when you pull it out five years to tim's point 52-week highs, but, man, it is just getting started. >> however, and katie can probably back me up or not, but this is a classic bearish -- >> hold on, you can't lead the witness like that. >> i said or not. i said or not. >> but you led with -- >> and she's a very strong-minded person. won't follow your lead. >> she is not going to agree with me just to agree. >> i can't wait to ask her. >> bearish to bullish reversal. this is two and a half, three years in the making as tim just said, it's been dead money for a while but it's starting to see signs of life.

when these things start to turn, the move i think surprises people to the upside. but i'm curious to know what katie thinks without any influence from me, tim. >> the damage is done. >> the damage is done. that's a neal young son by the way. >> it has advanced from its basing phase finally, right, it's been watching paint dry on this one, but for now week two it's above a key resistance level based on our cloud model. the cloud is usually a pretty forgiving gauge of resistance and the fact that it's been cleared for the first time in ages is a meaningful development. near term it has the same short term exhaustive signals and we have in the major indices so i would like for a better buying opportunity but as long as it holds around 64 with which is that former resistance i think it's in good shape. apple rising slightly following a bloomberg report that all of the components for

the phone will be in india this year. guy, interesting development. >> there were not in my opinion there were never sort of penalized for not doing this. in other words, when they had the china situation any -- basically any negative thing out of china did not affect the stock. so they shouldn't get rewarded by moving to india. i would think on the manufacturing side of things. with that said, as well, i mean, this stock got itself very expensive very quickly. trading, i think, 32 times. like i understand why people get excited about this, but you mentioned warren buffet five minutes ago, this is another stock he seems to be pairing down, i'm taking profits here. >> katie. >> the long-term setup improved with the breakout to any ties for apple it has improved long-term momentum with that breakout but it met the measured move objective really quickly. with that now we have this kind of corrective mode under way. with the relief rally we have now as of just yesterday our

first countertrend signal from the daily demark indicators. i think now is not the time. >> there is the apple trade. thank you very much. up next, we have our final trades. keep it right here. is it possible to be more capable? and more practical? be able to perform here. and here. make a statement while barely making a sound. and command the road, as well as what lies ahead. how we get there matters. get exceptional offers at your local audi dealer.

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all right. it's that time. final trades. tim, starting with you. >> how about an airline -- excuse me, a commercial aircraft manufacturer are erg, embraer of brazil, crushing. >> katie. >> i will reiterate the dba with the agricultural etf. >> dan. >> i agree with most of tim's fundamental take with paypal, i agree with katie's, i would be a buyer on weakness. >> and guy. >> be hon with the folks at

home, how much fun do you have hosting this show. >> >> i have a fun time hosting the show. i'm a fan. >> fishing for that complement? >> i'm not fishing. >> i enjoy my time. i do. >> aem. >> gold, i love it. thanks for watching "fast money," it's been a pleasure to be with you guys. right now "mad money." my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm jim cramer, welcome to mad money. my job is to teach you. we were due for today's modest pull back. the s&p