tv Street Signs CNBC August 21, 2024 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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tt way. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] good wednesday morning from london. this is "street signs." i'm dan murphy. let's get straight into our headlines at this hour. european equity markets into a holding pattern as there's an eight-day win streak and fed minutes state side all ahead of this week's jackson hole symp symposium. plus, china's ministry launches an anti-subsidy probe into eu dairy products after
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they plan tariffs on china-made e vs.s. alcon posts weaker than expected sales growth in the second quarter. we're going to hear from david endicott later today. and obama backs harris and walz as he throws his support behind a nominee. >> we have a chance to elect someone who has spent her entire life trying to give her the same chances america gave her, someone who sees you and hears you. it is your wednesday's edition of "street signs." welcome into the program. great to have your company in the next hour as we unpack what's in these markets. as you can see, our heat map with a mixed day. the stoxx 600 is still in
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positive territory, trending 0.1% higher at 513, but, of course, this comes after we sal wall street nap its longest win streak of the year and traders on watch and wait mode, looking for clues in jackson hole about where rates will go next. here's a deeper dive what let's moving across europe right here and now. keep a close watch on the ftse 100, up by 0.05%. the fotse 100 saw the biggest decline yesterday dragged down by the oil majors. so we are seeing a recovery in that market. we're seeing the xetra dax up by 2 by
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0.22%. mining and material stocks are standing out with vinyl prices standing out. gold prices also standing out as we see the usd sliding against the euro and the end. we'll take a look at the fx space later today. as you can see, basic results really climbing up by 0.8%. gas pulling lower by 0.4%. they're the top gainers and losers across the space. as i mentioned the s&p, fun fact, yesterday would have marked the longest win streak for the s&p 500 since 2004. so you can really chart the rise and fall here for the month-to-date. the s&p still up by 1.35%. but there says everything about the volatility we have seen over the last couple of weeks. here's a live look at u.s. equity futures here as well. markets are called higher when trading gets back under way in the u.s.
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the dow up by 50, the s&p 500 up by 3, and the nasdaq up by less than one point right now. well, investors, are, of course, looking for a swactth o retail earnings with target, macy's, urban outfitters, and t.j. maxx. the retail sales cut their outlook. they're waiting for the fed rate cut. t there was a year-over-year decline for home improvement for the sixth great quarter. the july foc minutes are released today while the fed annual symposium kicks off in jackson hole tomorrow with powell to kick off his much
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anticipated speech on friday. here in europe we're going to be looking for the flash pmis out of france, germany, the uk, and more. cnbc will be speaking to a hot of leading voices including the presidents of banks of kansas, philadelphia, atlanta, and chicago. i'm pleased to have jeffrey here. thanks for being here. first of all, characterize market sentiment for me now. i get the sense in having conversation with colleagues, august feels like august now. >> i want to say cautiously optimistic. i think consumers have been one of the issues.
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of course jackson hole is going to supersede the fomc minutes today. the markets will get whatever they want, whatever that means, probably not. we are data dependent, cautious stability. >> what do we need to see out of jackson hole? a green light? a signal that jerome powell plans to cut rates? >> right now it's cutting rates in a relatively stable manner and soft landing. that's the narrative. we want to stay in sort of the old phrase of bad news is good news kind of a vibe as long as things are decelerating. in a stable manner, we have a soft landing. that's why you don't want to rock the boat too much. perhaps we need to cut a bit more aggressively than anticipated. that may tip the sentiment toward the negative side. >> the market pricing would suggest that's not necessarily the base case or the need right now as well. there are some out there saying
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50 is plausible. what's your view? >> we would protect against that barring a massive turn or something like that. you could put it back on the agenda. i think some of the vibes around an emergency cut that we had, that's being pushed back. >> interesting to watch. i believe you said positioning, especially in equities remains relatively light. can you expand on that? >> there are two things. first, if we look at some of the flows and globally, there has been a but more cautious in terms of equities, but, you know, that is starting to recover. in u.s. equities, what we are seeing, overseas equities, that really has accelerated. i think they've been taking advantage of the valuations but also the dollar becoming somewhat cheaper especially apec investors, euro/dollar has, against my view, alas some, but it's hit today's highs.
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they're using this opportunity, using that fx discount as well to own u.s. equities. you only do that when you finding you're in an underweight position. >> let's talk about these moves. you mentioned yours. what happened with the euro/dollar call firstly they were anticipated. secondly what astoujds me, three months ago i was skbectding three cuts for the second half of the year. now the market has shifted in that direction, yet you hear the dollar is stronger. i can only say that's positioning as well. relative to other currencies as well, i look at sweden, the brics bank, they're very, very cautious. what's the ecb seeing that others are not seeing on the markets? they're not calling it out right now. >> we're going to bring some of that conversation later today.
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the usd, how much are we looking at? >> dollar/yen, pick a number. we're happy to see it heading toward year end. much more downside. euro/dollar, i think 105 is still a reasonable level. still quite progressive by the way. where i do see dollar actually weakening is more against aipac funders, but dollar/yen higher because we know china is below its rate targets. the mexican pace sow, for example, i expect the dollar to actually outperform. >> just on dollar/yen as well, do you think the carry on wind helps? >> we did see it during the ermg
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weeks of august, but that has sort of stabilized them as well. i think once the ped path is in place and we get past the japanese government as well and set out the policy in the medium t term, that could trig more unwinding. >> i also wanted to ask you about something else we're seeing. you flagged it in your notes. copper to gold to equity risk. give us a bid on that. how does that all boil out, and what does it mean? >> i think we separate gold from all the others right now, it's always had its unique characteristics. if there's pricing, the gold can actually rally. you're seeing physical tee majd pick up. the structural allocation has come in place. i go back to the china view. so take the aussie dollar for
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example, it's strengthening on the back of the hawkish rba. it tracks too much of a beater from china's view. expect a very strong q4 investment growth on top of consumer growth. >> so they can't necessarily hit that growth target without stimulus though. that's one view. at the same time, they have been pointing downward, but the policy makers have been the target. >> i think how markets are pricing, they will pull the trigger, but i'm more concerned about what kind of growth. they do realize that in china, setting out financial risks for the future, thus there's some support for the household to hit targets right now. i think it's a combination of everything. i do agree right now vibes are to be very, very cautious. the market, however, is
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anticipating some news to hit that target. >> interesting to watch. giu giuffre, just before i let you go, what is it? >> i would say watch the pmi numbers and watch for any action because comparing sweden versus eurozone, sweden knows the importance of manufacturing. why is the ecb not reacting to that? this is only going to deteriorate further in terms of the outlook for the eurozone economy. we've had almost two years of manufacturing transactions right now. >> geoffrey, thank you for being here. okay, well, let's move on. i wanted to flag for you what we're seeing with money stocks. geoffrey was just outlining this. gold, you can see 2,509 u.s. is
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the level, pulling back somewhat. that's not stopping. the move higher we're seeing for some of the big mining companies, rio tinto up 1.4%. decent gains across that sector. the china commerce ministry has launched a dairy investigation into the eu. it will include belgium and italy. and weaked demand amid uncertainty. softwareone wants to take the swiss company private, adding it will update the market if and when required. alcon posting a miss in second quarter sales with the company seeing weaker performance and being hit by
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effects. it's maintaining its full year outlook with david endycott saying he's preparing for launches that will drive its next phase of growth. we'll hear from him later today. the uk's regulator says there are reasonable grounds to believe it will undertake cases by barratt and redrow. it expects the merger to be complete and make a decision by mid-october. it was a mixed negative close across the region. hong kong's hang seng down by 0.17%. seoul's nikkei managed to eek out a weak gain. walmart confirms a sale of
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jd.com. they say that decision would allow it to focus on walmart china and sam's club and deploy capital to other priorities. the stock was do8.7%. china's walmart is selling shares at a price range of 24.85 to 25.85 each. jd.com's shares sinking down. walmart and jd's partnership go back eight years and the u.s. retailer now remains continued is committed to a continued relationship and apply capital toward other priorities. reportsing from hong kong, i'm
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emily tan. the european president and german's president broke ground on tsmc's chip plan. the aid approval is the largest so far under the block's c.h.i.p.s. act with the joint venture between tsmc and several chip players expected to cost 10 billion euros. vond layen held it for all sides. >> it's an endorsement for europe as a global innovation powerhouse. the world's largest chipmaker is coming to our continent and joining forces with three european champions, and the benefits will be felt well beyond sexton. as a time of growing geopolitical tensions, tsmc will also benefit from geographic
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diversification to europe, better access to our strength like automotive. as you said, customers are of importance to you. and to our unique single market. so this is a true win-win situation for all of us. >> when we come back, up next, protests sweep across venezuela as the u.s. hits out . stay with us on the other side. hey, can you speak french? who, me? i know a few words. if you're struggling to speak a new language, you should try babbel, a learning platform designed by over 200 language experts. it's like having your own personal language coach. babbel offers live classes with expert teachers for real world conversation practice. it's totally flexible so you can learn at your own pace
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misinformation online is real, and so are its negative and harmful effects. stay smart. the more you know. welcome back. tes t protests have swept across the nation since the vote in venezuela with the government saying 2,400 people have been detained so far. the eu, u.s. and several other countries have rejected the
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outcome and don't recognize the result. joining us the co-founder of world liberty congress. thanks so much for your time. we appreciate you being here today. what we have seen is significant protests across venezuela with maduro having won the election. it's about basic transparency and integrity. how concerned are you about developments on the ground right now in venezuela? >> well, as you say, they're being tested. the results were very clear. there was a landslide victory, and we can say this because we have the proof at every voting center. maduro has not been able to show any element of proof. he has dismantled all of the auditing processes of the electoral system and he has relied on the army, the armed forces, the police, the judges in order to repress the
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venezuelan people. there has been a massive repression wave over the past three weeks, more than 2,500 people having been detained. people from the national leaders to local observers, they're being -- dozens of people murdered. and maduro has shut down the communications of the country. so it's very clear to the venezuelan peand people and of world he lost and took it over by force. >> what we're seeing is an impartial verification of votes. what are you doing to achieve that, and what are you doing to push that forward? >> that's what we expect. maduro won't be able to present any element of proof. what we expect is that
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venezuelan people will continue to pressure. we went out in 100 cities in venezuela and around the world because venezuela has 8.5 million people in the country. many have left over the years. the autocrats have already sided we maduro. china, north korea and others have sided with maduro. what we expect is countries follow panama, united states, coast tarekka has done, which is to recognize the results that gave gonzalez a clear victory. we know that this is a difficult scenarioing we always knew the election was not going to be free or fair, but now we need to push toward the 10th of january
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'25. that's the dade of the inauguration to have gonzalez sworn in as president. it won't be easy. but we need all the support from the democratic countriesrepubli >> leoleopaldo, you have a political story. you spent many years in prison under maduro's regime in venezuela. what do you fear now, and will you essentially continue to oppose the regime in exile or return to venezuela to fight this? >> we are willing to return as soon as we can. as you say, i spent seven years in confinement, four of them in solitary confinement in a military prison. i was sentenced to 14 years of prison for calling maduro a dictator. i know as many people know what
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the repression machinery of maduro can do. but the will of the people continues to be there. the will of the people continues to be there. what we hope is that this movement continues until we can effectively continue to democracy. i want to underhow important venezuela is for the region and for the world. we have seen over the 21st century, we have seen a rise in autocratic regimes globally. venezuela could be the first from auto tock kracy to democracy worldwide. we're facing the mighty autocratic powers supporting maduro, china, iran, in all ways. primarily because they have a common enemy, democracy and the united states. >> of course, it's only fair to ask at this point what you would do differently if the opposition was in power and putting the democracy element to one side,
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what we also know is venezuela is a very heavily sanctioned opec producer and supporter. so what would you do differently to commercialize venezuela's results and unlock it for the betterment of its people? >> well, the main thing is venezuela will become a functioning economy, an open economy. it will attract external and international investment with clear law and clear commitment, and that will allow vepz to have a surge in productivity, a surge in growth because the potential that venezuela has with natural resources today has collapsed. i'll give you a figure. when chavez came to power 25 years ago when venezuela was producing 3.5 million barrels of oil, we were at that time an interactional actor. today we're producing less than
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3,000 due to corruption and mismanagement. so with clear rules, with clear commitment to market economy, to opportunities for the private sector to invest, venezuela will be able to turn around very quickly. it won't be easy because the disruption of venezuela has been huge. it reached a collapse of 80% of gdp. when venezuela asked for i.d. when it used to be one of the richest countries in the region, the important commitment is to change the trend and to put venezuela in a path of growth, prosperity, and well being for the venezuelan people, and all of that can only be achieved with democracy. i want to underline the importance of democracy for the well being of the venezuelan people and the region that's being affected today, especially our closest neighbors with a huge massive migration that is stemming from venezuela because of the collapse of the country.
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>> leopaldo, i wish we had more time, but i have to leave it there. i appreciate your time . up next on the show, china ramping up tariff tensions, targeting dairy products even after brussels reduces evs. plus, it's a love story but could it be dressed as a nightmare? a string of sold out shows and a boost to the economy. we'll take a look at whether the eras tour could spell trouble for inflation. get ready for it next. why do couples a sleep number smart bed? i need help with her snoring. sleep number does that. thank you. during our biggest sale of the year, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed shop now at a sleep number store near you. what is cirkul? cirkul is what you hope for when
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week's jackson hole meeting. brussels cuts its planned tariffs on chinese-made evs. alcon sees growth in the second quarter. we're going to hear from ceo david endicott later today. and former president barack obama throws his support behind the nominees. >> we have a chance to elect someone who has spent her entire life trying to give people the same chances america gave her. someone who sees you and hears you. welcome back into the program. let's give you a live look at how u.s. equity futures are trading right now as we wake up in new york and have a fresh day
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of trade. the dow up by 36, the s&p 500 called higher by almost 4, but stocks are coming off a losing session. both the s&p and the nasdaq snapping their longest winning streak since late 2023. of course, along with minutes from the fed's july meeting, wall street anxiously awaiting come many m-- commentary. after that weak lead from the united states and a mixed lead from asia, we have seen markets here essentially trading flat. what we're seeing is london's ftse just above the flat line. in paris stocks up 2.3. the ftse also point to 6% stronger. the smi and spanish ibex are in territory. there has been an investigation opened into the dare are
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products imported from the eu. the probe will include china, belgium, italy, and finland. it comes as the european adjusts imposed tariff rates on china's electric batteries with tesla seeing the sharpest reduction of 9% versus the anticipated 20.8%. silvia amaro is with me at the desk. a fantastic story that highlights the geopolitical risk for market investors. >> exactly. and there's a lot happening. i would like to break it down. ultimately what we're seeing this morning is further tensions between china and the eu. in the last hour the chinese authorities announcing a new probe, this time around on european dairy products, and it comes as the european commission and the executivearm advised revised tariffs. that was announced yesterday.
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the commission was not immediately available for comment by them this morning on this latest probe from the chinese authorities, however, details from china this morning suggesting that the investigation on european dairy products could last a year before it is concluded. however, it adds to the pile of investigations that we have currently on the table. china is already looking at french cognac and imports as well. on top of that worth remembering that china also filed complaint to the wto in the wake of brussels announcement on ev tariffs. i want to comment on one i spoke with before we saw this latest probe from china. i was told this is likely to continue. these tensions we have seen thus far between the eu and china could continue as we see it
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expecting to take a second mandate, and this is very much what we were expecting from the european union. very much more protectionist, looking for ways to protect the sectors on the continent. but ultimately the question is what will this mean for consumers. how much will they be impacted by all of these trade tensions? it remains to be seen. also worth remembering this is happening before the u.s. ee lucz too. there could be implay cases in how the eu deals with china going forward and who is at the white house next. >> indeed. are we any closer to understanding how the europeans might react if they move forward? >> at the moment the initial action is coming more from brussels and that china. what we're seeing is a retaliation step. any time they announce something, china seems to be ready to announce something
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else. let's see whether they will actually come up with any sort of resolution. at the moment when it comes to the ev sector, there are conversations taking place between the eu and china. let's see whether that i will manage to reach an agreement. that is not the narrative thus far then. >> very interesting. silvia, thanks for joining us. moving on in sweden's central bank, cutting by 3.5% after shooting the 2% target for a second time. it could be cut two or three time this year. the risk bthe /* dsh the ring bank's erik thedeen spoke. >> it's very, very hard to see a development where, you know,
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they have a totally different development when it comes to growth and inflation, so we will probably move a little bit in tandem. it seems like the inflation is slightly better, lower in sweden than other areas partly due to the varybling rates that our monetary policies has a stronger ooh e affect. but also the fact that our wage negotiations basically wages are much lower in swede p than they are in other areas and t's good for inflation. last year beyonce kicked off her tour in stockholm. this year it jumped again as taylor swift's jumped ahead. meanwhile the wildest dreams of taylor swift fans were greetsed
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with sold out shows in london with nearly 1.2 million fans attending this year. it generated consumer spending worth almost 1 billion pounds. there are also concerns that the shows and their impact on the praises of hotels, food, drinks, and other services could drive uk inflation higher. there's an investigation whether there could soon be bad blood between taylor swift and england. >> welcome to the uk. the swifties were out in force. 700,000 fans, five prime-time shows, and almost $400 million for london's economy according to city officials. from travel to hotels, food, drinks, and merch, it's clear swift is big business.
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>> plane tickets were like $1,000. >> u.s. dollars. >> i'm starting to lose counseled. between the flight, the tickets, the friendship bracelets, about 500 euros? >> 600, 650. >> and drink, travel. >> and the costumes. >> this tour is probably around over 1,000 pounds that we suspect. >> reporter: but can taylor swift really impact the economy and sway the central bank. it may have boosted uk spending by almost $1.2 billion. in jeune spending on hotels alone could improve inflation by 30 points. >> the reality is this. it only has a tiny bit of weight. that's unlikely to jump after a single event. >> what policy makers are far more interested in is services
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inflation and also wage growth. however, i think this surge pricing of hotels is one to watch, but it really does depend on the brightness of the star. >> we're live now with kate nic nichols. great to get you on and help us impact the impact of taylor swift across the uk. what are you seeing right now? >> we have seen a significant impact. it's boosted sales and occupancy across the hotels in the nine concert dates and hotel occupancy up by about 96%. that's far higher than you would see on other comparable days. and overall eating and drinking, around half a billion pounds over the course of the eras tour. so it has seen significant uplift. in edinburgh, the bars saw a 12%
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uplift. liverpool and london, significant impact. >> what are you hearing from members about how the industry is responding? >> well, the industry has welcomed this alongside a summer of sport. it's been a much need boost for the sector that's been impacted by covid, and you've seen the impact and the halo effect of taylor with people coming from across the country, across the continue continental, staying a little bit longer, spending in restaurants and bars. unlike other sporting events, i think taylor's multigenerational audience, they come and stay for longer, drink and eat out and socialize around it and that's been incredibly welcomed by the restaurants and venues. >> she really does reach across the broad dem rah graphic here, which helps to explain the demographic multiplier.
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look, kate, when we also unpack some of the key issues here, what's the impact of long-term effects on the uk's tourism industry post pandemic? one of the interesting takeaways is we have seen a lot of people traveling from overseas into the uk and london to attend this concert series. actually i met one family at wembley who had come all the way from upstate new york because it was less expensive to come see taylor here than it would have been to see her in the united states. >> well, i think that is something that we are seeing, that these big experiencele events and concert, she's on stage for about three hours, but it's the event that goes 'long side it that sets the taylor swift eras tour apart from others. we have seen a large influx of foreign visitors coming. we know that tourism and sports
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entertainment events is a real boost to the economy. it's our second largest import sector and it's a really good showcase for the uk hospitality and tourism sector. >> let's talk about some of the other industries influencing things right now. almost all of the hospitalities by has seen sharp increases. you want to see rate reform. can you expand on that? >> yes, of course, in common with hospitality across the globe and when we came out of covid and came out of the supply chain crisis and the cost of living crisis, energy crises, these were common factors across the globe. wage rate inflation has been running around 14%. energy, 40%. what you have seen is a tox it cocktail of really high costs hitting the businesses. at the same time as you've seen
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a consumer slowdown and the concern about a cost of living meaning prices can be passed on. what we're asking the government to do is to look at those preprofit taxes that particularly impact hospitality. property taxes, employment taxes which really impact on our ability to expand and grow and recover and invest. and we're not back to prepandemic levels in the uk. so we're urging the government to reform the business rates rating, cut those property taxes by around 40% and free up and give it a boost of oxygen to be able to get back to full strength and regenerate our time. >> all right. kate. hopefully we can speak again soon as that plan progresses. we appreciate the conversation today, but we're out of time. we appreciate the time. thanks again, kate. wheel taylor swift wraps up the european leg of her tour, another star is entering into the luxury spirits business.
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democratic party delegates have backed kamala harris and tim walz as the party's nominees for president and vice president at the dnc. it follows the nomination of harris over two weeks ago. harris and walz traveled to wisconsin at the same place that hosted the republican convention as they look to gain ground in the key swing state. >> make no mistake, as we all know, this campaign is not just
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about us versus donald trump. this is not just about us versus donald trump. this is about two very difference visions for our nation. one, ours, focused on the f future, the o', focused on the past. and, wisconsin, we fight for the future. >> former president barack obama spoke on the second day and put his support behind harris. >> i'm feeling hopeful. this convention has always been about kids with funny names in a country where evanything is possible because we have a chance to elect someone who has spent her entire life trying to give people the same chances america gave her, someone who
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sees you and hears you and will get up every single day and fight for you. the next president of the united states of america, kamala harris. >> harris has faced criticism over her proposal for a national ban on price gouging in the grocery sector with a former obama adviser saying, quote, not sensible policy. >> she's not saying broad price control. she's saying go after companies in a narrow way if there's evidence. this is all going to be evidence-based. she's one of the best lawyers and prosecutors we know. she's not out to take business down. she ooh is out to, you know, hold them accountable, which is good for the economy. >> she's talked about making sure there's no price gouging that takes place so that we have
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a properly functioning market where consumers have the ability to purchase the goods that they need at a fair market-based price without any unlawful activity that occurs. this should not be a controversial thing. >> we're live now with alice barr from nbc news joining us from the dnc in chicago. alice, the obamas certainly firing up the convention. what are we looking out for next? >> reporter: dan, that was really a powerful moment. of course, there are very deep ties from the obamas to the chicago area here, and former president obama really launched onto the national stage on a national convention stage 20 years ago. so this is the kind of ground where they certainly shine. they are the biggest star power yet to this day really in the democratic party, and so when
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they took the stage, these were speeches that they had worked on together. they coordinated what they were going to say and had kind of polished over some time, and you could tell that. you could tell first of all they were full-throated endorsements of vice president kamala harris, someone they've been longtime allies of, and they spoke about how she would care not just about her own problems but america people's problems an ld she would work on behalf of all americans. michelle obama spoke about not being anxious about whether america would elect someone like vice president harris, but instead doing the work to ensure that she was elected. and then they both had stinging rebukes of former president trump. it really did feel like this was something they needed to get off of their chest, particularly the former first lady michelle obama has not spoken a whole lot about former president trump, and she had some sharp words, talking about how she felt his world view had made him fearful of
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these obamas, these strom ng people who ha p to be black. and then she said tell him the job he's seeking might be referring to a black job, referring to migrants coming to the country taking black jobs. that was a big moment and president obama talking about not wanting to repeat the trump sequence. those were powerful words. tonight governor tim walz will formally accept his nomination for vice president. he and kamala harris were rallying in the swing state of wisconsin last night, but tonight will be governor walz's moment on the stage. it's a big moment for 00 to introduce himself to a lot of people who don't know him yet. >> fascinating. coach walz as harris has been referring to him on the campaign
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trail. interestingly, alice, harris was miles away campaigning. i'm curious what you're hearing with regard to the tone she's going to strike when she eventually reaches the dnc and makes this acceptance speech and what else we're learning following the dnc in order to maintain the momentum that she has seen so far. >> that is the central question right now. there's no question there's been a huge swell in momentum. that's one thing. concrete support that's another. one thing we've heard from undecided voters, they don't have a clear understanding where she stands on a lot of issues outside the shadow of president biden. so i think her task tomorrow night is going to be how much does she get into the nitty-gritty detail, and does that maybe work to her
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disadvantage as well if she gets pinned down on certain issues. she's been able to ride this momentum right now and sort of just have this positive message and that's been propelling her forward, but at some point she's going to have to go it a little more specific. i'll be curious how much she does of that on establish versus keeping the momentum and celebration going. >> well put. al l alice, i appreciate it. before we goer here, here's look at the u.s. futures. we trek on to "worldwide exchange." thanks for your company today.
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here's your 5 at 5. jim cramer argues the pause is actually a positive. shares of jd.com gets hammered as walmart puts a stake up for sale. results for target. it could be a catalyst, offering a fresh look at how strong the consumer really is. plus, the harris 2024 war chest just
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