wow. okay. good to know. thank you very much, leslie. we knew they were active. i just didn't know how active. very quickly, let's take a final check on the markets. s&p up by about ten. that does it for us today. see you right back here tomorrow. at least he will. "squawk on the street" begins right now. bye. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks do try to reclaim their momentum after breaking that eight-day win streak. retail is a big story today. target, macy's, tjx, fed minutes and some benchmark revisions to payrolls at 10:00 a.m. our road map begins with target's quarterly beat and the profit outlook, sending the stock up double digits today. plus we got the broader market looking to regain momentum, this after snapping an eight-day win streak, and interest rate policy on wall

street's radar, as it always is. minutes from last month's fed meeting are due out this afternoon ahead of chair powell's jackson hole speech this friday. let's begin with target, raising guidance for the full year, comps up for the first time since the holiday quarter of '22. this is what cornell had to say about the results earlier on "squawk." >> we said q2 was a time we get back to growth and that would be traffic up 3%, really important marker for us, but overall comps plus 2%, stores are positive. we saw acceleration in digital. digital growth led by drive-up and our target circle 360 delivery to home. those were up over 14%, and from a overall performance standpoint, for op income rate to get back to 6%, people have been waiting that for a while. >> 6.4%, actually. >> and ceps up over 40%. i feel really good about the progress we're making in the

quarter. >> traffic up 3%, jim, even with basket down a little bit. >> look, i think this was an amazing quarter, why? because the last five haven't been that good, and this was something that brian cornell, the ceo, promised. i know he promised me, i go over things with him, and we were just -- i was marveling about the traffic, how good the comp store sales are. one of the things that has been the hallmark of this period, it's not that the consumer's discerning. that's not enough. it's that if you cut prices, costco, walmart, target, they come. >> they do, because, as we know, comp store -- traffic was up 3%, again to do the math, but it was clearly lower prices that ultimately brought the bottom line. >> and they have such an advantage. it's self-crafted. they have their house brands, and they have big gross margins on house brands, and the house brands sell better than a lot of

the premium brands. that's one of the reasons i love going to target. target is kind of very much about merchandise. the other guys are about other companies' merchandise. target's about their merchandise. and the bargains they get. and when you go over, like, when you go over most of these companies, they say, oh, you know, we had good pvh, and it looks like northface is selling well. no, it's all the brands, the cat and jack, their brands, and their brands are indiscernible for most americans from the actual name brand, not unlike costco's kirkland signature. we have to stop thinking it's the strapped consumers. who knows how to merchandise? who knows how to cut price? brian cornell demonstrated that he had everything, and that's why that stock is up so much. >> still, on a two-year stack, three-year stack, comps are still decelerating. that's not like walmart. >> no. but i think that you had to see some sign that their digital,

and he's talking about pickup and their target club is good. look, i like it because they started buying back stock. i told brian, if you don't start buying back stock, i don't see the conviction. the conviction is there. i think that this is remarkable, but here's a little quiz i'm going to give david because he's been a little awol. david, give me a retailer that's twice the size of target that reports great numbers. >> in market cap? tjx. >> he's sharper than ever. >> i'm ton of it, man. $128 billion versus roughly $66 billion. almost exactly twice the size of target. and even though we'll spend a lot of time on target and probably an equal amount of time on macy's, it's tjx -- >> macy's is $5 billion. >> yeah, and tjx is going to be up, much more profitable. was making this point earlier. it's a much more profitable company on every dollar of sales. they are just making more money. >> what can tie all things together? if you look at macy's, they had to close stores.

they didn't close the stores that i wanted to. what happens with that macy's inventory? it goes to tjx. we go to marshal's, we just crush it. every time you go to marshall's, you feel like you crush it. every time you go to macy's, you feel like, maybe i get crushed. >> or home goods is another one you go to. you also find out what didn't work. i can see why that didn't work. >> the home goods candle section is killer. >> really? the signs that say, "moms love wine"? "rose all day"? >> they do have that. there's whimsy at target. >> oh, whimsy. >> well, brian calls it newness. look, brian is -- brian's good, man. i'm so glad he got this right. he also told me they hired more people to make it so there's less pilferage, so something that you always wanted is you press a button or they anticipate that you might want to go in and they have the key. at walgreens, it was really important for you to go amazon online.

i have ordered amazon same-day from wall grgreens, and i got i faster. okay, that was a walgreens joke. >> we're seeing the stocks react. i get it. target is up a lot, of course. tjx, another strong quarter. macy's, down. but what is your takeaway to the extent there is one, largely speaking, about the consumer at this point? >> the consumer is so sick of inflation that they will go to anybody who says, you know what, we can slay inflation. and i said to carl yesterday, we don't need price -- we don't need price -- we don't need the government to tell us that it's gouging, so therefore they want to put some sort of limit. we just tell them, go to costco. see, i don't think that vice president harris is willing to talk at the convention, like, look, i was at costco the other day, and it's pretty good. but the government has to start being more serious about the fact that we have a bifurcated consumer and a bifurcated store set, and we have to recognize that some stores are leaders. walmart is a leader at rolling

prices back. costco has restrained america. the producers, they basically say, look, this is the way it is or we're going to go against you with kirkland, and carl knows -- i'm going to quiz him again, what's the one brand that they are never able to beat, costco? they've been able to beat every single brand in the world with their kirkland signature. which one -- >> soda. >> ouch. that hurts. >> he's a "jeopardy!" winner. >> i am, but also he was mouthing the answer to me. i cheated. completely cheated. >> they couldn't stop coke, but they have been successful in stopping everybody else, so america is going to where there are price caps and where they're rolling things back. where companies are saying, listen, 2019 or bust. costco is trying to get things to 2019. walmart is trying to get things to 2019. i bet you that tjx is through 2019, and when you go over to any marshall's or home goods, it has become very chic to go to

these places because chic is actually save. saving became chic, and p profligacy became idiocy. i stuck that stuff in my wife's cabinet, and she liked it. it was e.l.f. she thought it was mac. >> you do mention estee lauder. those shares -- do you have that? >> no. >> you got rid of that? you blew it out of the club? which is it? >> no. the club -- no. no. >> i know you don't talk about it. >> no. we ended up buying beyonce's whiskey, another failed brand. >> not talking about it doesn't mean it goes away. just letting you know. >> picking at a scab, it's not there. >> i am, i am. >> why don't you go back to where you were, wherever the hell that was. we had -- he was in the land of walmart, target, and where else? >> container store. i went to a burlington coat factory just for you. >> they dropped coat factory.

it's just burlington, like the railroad. >> i went in there, like, let me check this place out, and i left pretty quickly. i was in a walgreens. there was a lot -- i went to a loc lot. i checked out a lot of retail in america. >> you checked out walgreens, what was that like? >> it was fine. >> you been in a rite aid recently? i said, do you have any merchandise? the truck hasn't come yet. >> walmart was absolutely packed. >> it should be. look at the prices. not that you would know. but you're like president bush with the milk. you go into walmart and it's palpable. >> bush one. hw. >> it's palpable. my baker daughter can't afford to bake without walmart. >> that's good to know, jim. good to know. >> it explains these all-time highs and the fact that it's the best dow stock of the year. speaking of markets, jim, let's get to futures. this higher open. there's some discussion about years in which you have had an

eight-day win streak, and since 2011, they're all 20-plus percent years. >> i looked at 2004, the last one, and it is quite encouraging. now, it's not as big a percentage gauge you might necessarily want, but what it is, they tend to be harbingers of a new cycle. 2004 became proflifgacy. i think we're going get a hiccup, but we charge ahead. i think that september, i'm not going against the prognosticators who say september is tough, because it is. but we could be okay here. >> yeah. jpm desk today looking at years in which you had a ten-day loss of at least 6% followed by a ten-day gain of at least 8%. a year later, you're up 20, 25%. >> look, i think cycle work is good. larry williams, we were doing some cycle work, he's a great market historian, and he said

we're probably going to go down to mid-october, and he says that the key stock, the linchpin, the kingpin, whatever, is nvidia, and nvidia's next week. >> and you have argued to -- >> i don't want people to do make-or-break, nvidia. nvidia is the best performing stock in the s&p, and there's always people who come in right here. >> adi last night, the upgrade of texan today suggests inventories in general -- >> adi, i'm so glad you mention it. texas instruments and adi are what we call internet of things, the stuff you all see and do, and that's -- that cycle has been horrible. if that comes back, that's the last one, and if that comes back, you really are smooth sailing in semis. now, texas instruments showed discipline. for once, they didn't just say -- actually, they showed flexibility. >> they showed flexibility on capex. >> they've -- they never listen to anybody. >> elliott, as you might imagine, given their

$2.5 billion stake we told you about a couple months ago now, is certainly saying, hey, see, maybe we did have an impact. >> they should be saying that, because texas instruments is insular. they take nobody -- nobody's advice, and then suddenly, that's what -- >> they have a history of doing that. >> this was very much what elliott wanted. >> so, yes, i think that from elliott's point of view and some an a analysts as well, the fact that they have this call and reduced their capex intensity forecasts, offered free cash flow guidance, guardrails in terms of what ththey really are aiming for is seen as a diversion for them from their previous practices to a certain extent, so perhaps in some way at least establishing kumbaya with their large shareholder. >> leslie picker is doing a piece on elliott, and i think the big issue here is, where are they effective? where have -- it doesn't matter. for instance, the travel trust, if you want to pick on me, constellation brands. so, they've left the position. they couldn't -- they haven't been on the board.

but you can't fight the trend in alcohol. the trend in alcohol, the trend in beer, is glp-1, cannabis, and this crazy thing, like, younger people want to be healthy. we did not have that. >> you can't listen -- any activist, you cannot overcome if you've made a bad decision in terms of buying a particular stock because the news is against you. it's much more difficult. it all starts with having something that's constructive to begin with, and then being able to advance your agenda in some fashion. >> okay. >> or just getting lucky in the case of elliott and starbucks, where, frankly, there was very little that they had to do with the replacement of the ceo. >> there's lucky and there's luck-in. starbucks has not had to deal with luck in yet with the brian niccol choice. he just comes to play every day. he's right out of the tunnel. you know, guys come out of the tunnel, and there are other guys who sit in the tunnel and hope

the light doesn't shine on them. >> getting ready for your nfl season, aren't you? >> brazil. >> we're trying to convince jim to go to sao paulo. >> it's the opener. we're kings. we're -- my wife hates that. oh do, you play? what's your number? >> when we come back this morning, we'll get a look at ford's new ev strategy. they're shaking theings up toda. we'll get to paramount with david's help. some news on wbd. downgrade of amex when we come back. power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades

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ford shifting gears with its ev strategy today. phil lebeau joins us with details. good morning, phil. >> if you take a look at shares of ford, they're moving up just a little bit premarket, and i think this is an indication that investors are saying, thank you. this is what you should be doing if you're not cutting things and

being nimble enough, quick enough, when it comes to electric vehicles, so here's what ford is doing as it shifts its strategy. they're going to be taking a $400 million charge immediately. costs will go up by $1.5 billion, and then there's going to be some product adjustments. they will be having a commercial van coming out in '26, commercial vehicles is where ford has been doing very well when it comes to electric vehicles. that's a smart move. there will be a mid-size electric pickup launching in 2027, a separate electric truck coming in the second half of '27, and ford is no longer going to be making a three-row electric suv. the vice chairman, john lawler, was on a conference call with reporters earlier today and said, look, the economics didn't work. we weren't going to be profitable with this vehicle within the first 12 months. why build the vehicle? that's exactly what people have said ford and other automakers need to be doing. you're not going to make money right away, why make it?

that's why ford has decided to drop the three-row suv. in terms of evs in this country, ford is number three in terms of automakers. it is the number two brand, but in terms of automakers, it's number three behind tesla and then hyundai-kia leading the market. evs are about 4.4% of ford's sales, but they continue to lose money, guys, as you take a look at shares of ford, keep in mind they lost, in the second quarter, an average of about $44,000 per ev that was sold. so, they're also making a few other adjustments. they're going to be delaying production at a tennessee ev plant, pushing that back. it was supposed to start next year. that's going to go back into '26. and they basically are saying, we need to move quicker, and as we move quicker, we're emphasizing the products that we believe can sell when it comes to all electric vehicles. guys, i'll send it back to you. >> phil, has something happened to ford? that last quarter was a complete

abomination. it was clearly the worst one that we've seen from farley. has he felt some of the heat and is starting to take action? >> i think he's always felt the heat, especially when it comes to electric vehicles. i think they still believe nin it, jim, and that's why they're making the changes they're making. they do believe they're on a path that will ultimately pay off with profitable electric vehicles but it's going to take time to get there. they are moving as quickly as they believe they can at this point. there's new vehicles coming out of the skunkworks operation in california. those will be the first ones we see coming in 2027 that they believe will have dramatically lower costs and will open up a number of markets for them, and then finally, jim, when you take a look at the heat that jim farley may be feeling, separate from evs, it's the whole warranty issue. we have talked about this time and time again. they believe that it's going to be improving. that what you're seeing right now is a reflection of the previous production lineup

before 2021. that may be the case, jim, but in the meantime, you can't have quarters like they had last quarter where the boogeyman jumps out of the closet and says, here's a billion dollars that you're taking a hit on when it comes to warranty costs. you just can't do that. >> phil, that's why my travel trust sold it. couldn't handle the warranty problems. we know that if you don't go for quality, it doesn't matter what the stock price does. you are spot on. this is the big issue. it's the warranties. >> yeah. well, now, look, on the last call, jim farley said that they believe they have made the number of changes in their production that -- to immediately address warranty costs that could pop up down the line. they are holding back on the launch of vehicles. it means that the cadence is a little more lumpy. it's not guaranteed that come may 1st that vehicle is rolling out. if it's not ready, they're holding those vehicles up. the proof is in the pudding,

jim. we'll see if this pans out over the next several quarters, couple of years, if their warranty costs do come down, because lord knows, that has not changed over the last several years. >> great reporting as always. it's great. >> appreciate it, phil. phil lebeau. we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell in about nine minutes. take a look at the premarket. back after this. tamra, izzy and emma... they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan.

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retail very much on investors' minds today. we mentioned target, going to open almost 16% or so. tjx, close behind. dollar tree is going to open up 4%. there's la-z-boy and urban tonight. ywu can catch us any time, anhere, just listen to and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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>> announcer: the opg bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, let's get to a "mad dash" with jim. american express downgrade this morning. >> painful piece. bank of america. premium multiple requires more than execution and muted spending backdrop. this is a piece about the american consumer, except for i would tell you, i think it's an ill-advised piece. american express -- steve squeri continues to deliver and deliver and deliver, and people doubt him at every turn, not just

because he's a jet fan, which i know is difficult for you to fathom. but there is without a doubt a sense that it's always going to be the last quarter for american express. the company defies it because the company is so well run. once again, you make a paradigm, which is, the consumer is weak, don't own this company, and that presumes that management doesn't do anything, management doesn't realize there's some weakness and they don't operate and try to fix things like toll brothers did, which you know my motto with toll brothers is, rich people are so rich. i'm just saying the consumer is not the issue. it's, do you know how to manage the consumer? and we just, as a broad rubric, look at companies and don't think, that's steve squeri, and steve squeri -- >> they seem to be questioning the multiple here at bank of america. that's reone reason why. requires more than execution. at least to defend them, not that i care to defend them, they're saying they can execute but the multiple is too high. >> well, not given the

consistency of steve squeri, and i return to the idea that brian cornell knows what to do. steve squeri knows what to do. the people who run costco know what to do. and then, there's people who don't have a clue. and those are the tougher ones to deal with. by the way, one that knows what to do but doesn't get any credit is tjx. i know we're going to speak about tjx, right? what is that, david, the chelsea club? >> yes, at the big board, it is the women's team at chelsea football club. and over at the nasdaq, it's black visionaries, a nonprofit focused on resources and services for black professionals as breadth is relatively impressive here at the open. >> yes, and i know that yesterday, we took a little bit of a breather. i actually wanted that. the numbers that you were talking about, about the -- how many days up, i don't want to be complacent, and i also know that you don't want to run into some

sort of nvidia buzzsaw next week, but i do see these companies where, say, ernie herman comes in, he's opened 5,001 stores, and no one even knows who ernie iherman is, but ernie herman is the person who runs tjx and he's not about ernie herman. he's about the stores and selection. we have some great merchants not getting enough credit by wall street research. >> you're bullish on the discount end on tjx but also the high-end via ixp, right? >> i think that american express, the idea that hear the about rich and not rich, it's really about -- they're about aspiration. the number of younger people getting american express cards, david, is about as many people as have stopped drinking. >> really? >> yeah. >> are there a lot of people who have stopped drink something >> oh, my. you kidding me? the numbers for alcohol are horrendous. this is fine. i like this. >> is that -- >> okay, so it's cannabis. it's lifestyle. and it's glp-1, and if you get

my lancet article -- i can't, because they send me in a continuous loop, a new piece about obesity that says it's very underrated cause -- >> it's your birthday? >> there were so many different -- yeah, happy birthday. >> what are you, 60? >> not today. >> oh. i thought they were singing to you. see, this is the kind of thing, carl, that they bring -- >> let me finish my point on glp-1s. can i do that, partner? >> yeah, go ahead. >> being fat is really bad for you. >> that's like being rich. >> it's really bad for you. so, if you're not -- >> elaborate. can you elaborate on that? >> that's why glp-1s basically seem to deal with so many different health issues beyond just diabetes, obviously, which is what -- >> sex life? >> yeah, apparently. very helpful there too. again, i come back to the basics. not good to be really heavy.

>> well, look, we know that obesity is -- that is the epidemic. it's obesity. it's not the idea of diabetes. it's obesity. >> there's a lot -- your life will change if you lose a fifth of your weight. it brings to mind some of the comments that david ricks gave yesterday during this hour. take a listen. >> on the drug, we can keep healthy body weight down for three years and ward off diabetes. when you come off the drug, a percentage of people do begin to gain weight, and then advance -- begin the advance again towards diabetes. they don't snap all the way back as if they were never on the drug. but that does begin to ramp up. >> right, now, the thing that -- my travel trust owns this and yes, at one time, owned estee lauder, okay? and the thing they have to worry about is protein. >> right. well, you need -- you lose muscle mass. that's one reason why older people may not take the drug as

often, in part because you lose a lot of muscle mass as you get older anyway. so, it actually, in a weird way, could bring, you know, people, like, exercise-related themes and maybe that would be positive outcome here because people actually need to build muscle mass. >> you need to be stronger. >> remember the famous b of a note when this was all new, looking at how clothes sizes would change. >> oh, yeah. airplanes. >> i know, the airplane's going to be lighter. >> we'll save money on fuel. >> that was the height of the craze. boeing has a new airplane that's lighter, not that anything that boeing does flies. >> that's horrible. >> i would tell you that the one that you want is abbvie because this is the one. look at this stock. this is about botox. botox and glp. very fine company. they're just very unpromotional. no one knows what abbvie does. it's a spinoff of abbott.

>> there's a lot of that. w well-known names. you mentioned adi, analog devices, the internet of things. we should explain to people what we're talking about. >> it's nuts and bolts. >> also putting chips on all sorts of things. >> cars. >> even in a factory, all sorts of different things so there can be communication within that. >> and they're a great company, and they never get any credit. when you sit with them, they're really smart people, but no, we don't give them credit because we're too busy giving bernard arnault, who's writing big checks to fund deep mind. no. >> no? >> no. the a.i. -- >> it's $110 billion market cap company. >> that's not an a.i. company. they use a.i. >> but they are analog chips. >> right. >> in terms of -- >> when you roll down a window in a car, think about analog. >> and the top of the press release is a quote, which doesn't say much other than they're navigating the cycle's nascent recovery, that's the way

they put it, and again, their high-performance analog solutions, they say, positions them well in terms of the underlying stream of concurrent cyclical trends. >> texas instruments is part of the problem. they kept putting up foundries, and therefore, they keep putting up more inventory, and now, they kind of hold back and we get a little elliott religion. we get excess inventories and suddenly, as chris says from citi -- >> their line was, it's christmas in august. >> wasn't that aggrgreat? we have macy's going today. remember gimble's? my dad sold gaberdeen before he was ignominiously fired. >> lord & taylor. >> i was biff to my dad. >> montgomery ward. penney's. >> you used to get shades at montgomery ward. >> sears.

>> sears is still around, kind of. >> not really. k-mart. >> remember when eddie lambert owned sears? >> lgb didn't do a lot to assuage concerns about furniture. >> i do think that -- i'm coming back to wayfair. wayfair was really good and people didn't like it because they said some negative things. you have to be very careful when you're a ceo. don't be down beat if your numbers are okay because then you decide, well, wait a second, maybe i shouldn't be in this stock. there are some guys who just are just grumpy. there are some executives who are grumpy. >> there's a ton on media. >> oh, are you going there? i may -- i bought paramount during the break. >> i'll go there, and then i want to get to jd.com and walmart. you bought the company? not much to add. talking to you guys yesterday, on par moamount, they're going

extend the period here. why wouldn't you? is it really going to lead to a higher offer, this offer we talked about from yesterday? it doesn't appear that that is likely. >> i was joking that braunfman comes in. >> there may be an opportunity. maybe they're trying to craft more financing, but again, that's what i come back. you've got one offer that say, hey, we'll give you a significant premium. you've got another that doesn't do that at all at this point. will they be able to put something together that does, in some way, do that? perhaps. but their argument was, you're better off not doing or taking that premium. i think many investors will be happy to actually sell some of their shares for cash, have a company that is obviously controlled by redbird and skydance, and larry ellison and go from there. and of course, if you really believe in it, you don't have to

take the cash. you can actually just opt for shares and stay in fully. so, it's, i think, far from clear, again to the key question you asked yesterday, as to why they're doing this. >> i don't know. >> will they, that is, the special committee, in some way be able to get more money out of larry ellison in some fashion here as a result of what may occur? maybe over the next couple weeks. >> do they know what they're playing with, with larry ellison? >> actually win this thing? doesn't seem likely at all. >> larry ellison doesn't lose. >> no, rarely. >> that's a criterion. larry ellison -- i don't know when he's ever lost. >> it's hard to remember a time when he's really lost. >> have you been to his island? >> i have not been to larry ellison's island. >> turns out a man is an island. >> no man is an island except for larry. >> he's an island. >> meantime, you got wbd flirting with a new studio in nevada. >> i defer to david for david zaslav. >> they're under so much pressure at that company.

just so many different ways in terms of generating free cash flow. we all know that. and the debt load that they have. it's an old story that we come back to again. >> it's staggered. >> it's not as though they have any near-term maturities that are of great concern, but we know the big story. linear has declined at a rate that even the most pessimistic outlooks didn't count for. there's literally only four people watching this show right now. >> it's literally hundreds of thousands. >> my whole family cut the cord. doesn't mean anything at all. sometimes they get the club broadcast. >> we're going to have a streaming product very san antonio. stay with us. >> netflix yesterday, $711. first all-time high in three years now. >> go back to that conference call, and they said that they weren't -- they weren't ready for advertising, and everyone is so darn cynical, they figured what that meant is they don't have a lot of advertising. well, now, they're ready and the advertising is just flooding in.

because you can target. i mean, one of the things that people have to realize, i was working with instagram, fooling around, david, you can target. they can target exactly what you want, because they know more about you from your choices, and i tell you, amazon, too, because they list -- alexa listens to everything, and i'm a little tired of it. >> alexa does listen to a lot. i did notice, interesting, on the advertising front, back to the -- well, talking about the election in terms of how the democrats are spending their money, did you guys see how much more of it is going towards social media than the traditional media? which, by the way, a warner brothers or, you know, others who own the networks are beneficiaries of, or own the stations. it's so far tilted for the first time towards all the names we know, of course, meta and alphabet. >> spotify. harris is advertising on spotify. >> spotify is crushing it. >> and tiktok. >> yeah. >> well, i mean, i think that one of these things, carl, when you -- you can go to meta and

say, look, i want my ad to run this, and they'll say, listen, don't tell us what to do. just send us a check. we'll get the right copy, the right look and feel, and we'll get it to the people who vote. who has that? >> that was the point that you made when they reported that quarter. a.i. is helping their business internally at meta in terms of allowing their customers to target in a way -- and forget the whole apple ios problem. that's long gone. now it's in the rear view mirror. >> they do it with a partnership, a very close partnership with nvidia, and mark zuckerberg would tell you that, and nvidia, jensen huang, the ceo, would tell you that these are the guys who understand us. they really understand what we're up to. and it's -- i remember jensen telling me he would not back mark if he was combative. trying to create combat. he liked the pivot that -- >> back to the advertising, though, on the streaming services. you are a captive audience there in a way that you're not when you're just on the old cable.

it's one reason to keep cable. you can just flip away. but when you're on amazon watching a football game, what you need to go through to get out of amazon while they're at break. >> exit, exit, exit. >> forget it. >> did you see what youtube has now? you can play the four games that you want. they also are starting to have the kind of thing of -- that i have always felt you need, which is how your fantasy team is doing. put your fantasy up there. they just made a major breakthrough. i've been very critical of youtube because they have not talked about the things they're doing. they ought to just do a little bit more selling, for heaven's sake. i have never seen a -- i beg you guys to give me something positive i can say about youtube. no. >> i have good news. just judging from my twitter, my x feed, there are at least more than four people watching, because any number of people have already said, "i'm watching." >> people feel bad for you. >> and "my dog is watching." "we're in the uk and we're watching." thank you all. don't cut the cord. when you want to watch the ads, you got to watch them all.

>> he's written us off. and you know what? he's a hologram. he's not even here. >> i haven't written us off. it's a very tough moment. trying to answer your question on warner bros. discovery. it's a brutal business right now when you have legacy old linear cable networks and paramount is dealing with the same thing. that's why they have these huge writeoffs, why they're selling the company. what do you do if you're zaslav? don't spend it on special events at the olympics. >> what about a porterhouse? >> he like to go to restaurants? >> we've talked about what better housing mobility would mean for those companies and we did get toll with a double beat, raise guide, jim. mortgage apps today. you've got to 30-year fixed down to 6.5%. >> if you look at the amount of applications, they're doing dramatically. i think people are really waiting now. we're finally at that moment where everybody -- mortgage apps for -- >> down ten, but prior week was up 16. >> i know, but i'm thinking that we're -- this is what i believe

we are now close enough to jackson hole that the average consumer knows that. by the way, toll brothers, a lot of their homes are built for, you know, they're cash. $1 million cash. once again, the margins are so great in this business, but it's the buyback of the stock. it's one of the most aggressive buybacks on the new york stock exchange. it's incredible, david. >> wow. >> remember they used to -- they were serial -- they are -- doug yearley is a fabulous executive, and if he would return my call and come on the show -- >> what changes the cycle for them? anything? if and when rates really begin to come down in a significant way. >> they're not a traditional home builder anymore, because they really are just after the wealthy people, but i would say that what would change for them is if your house were going down in value, rather than up. we know that's happened. 2007-2009. but their houses keep appreciating in value, which is why it's considered to be a great store of wealth. and i agree with that.

that's a reflection of the stock. and it's a reflection of the fact that they know how to build a home and make a ton of money off of it and yet still keep the customer satisfied. congratulations to toll. >> energy is a good story today. you got crude back below $74 earlier. got some m&a in arch and consul. >> we should talk about that because these are two very small companies that were once very big, during the super cycle of coal. there may not be as much antitrust. i don't think the customers are that upset. these are two not big companies, but some people would say it's right in the face of the ftc, who just lost the huge court suit on the people who are -- >> noncompetes? yeah. that was a big deal. that was -- and that was interesting. >> i don't think they're going to -- i think this coal deal can go through. >> after hawaiian alaska, which you said they were not being dogmatic? >> i think they're starting to realize, if we don't let these companies merge, maybe they don't -- maybe -- >> you have to make some choices. jim, we mentioned energy, and

then i just -- obviously, thinking, then, about oil and have you looked at exxon versus chevron the last couple years? i wanted to make this point, because the fact is that maybe it was our great documentary that started them off, but take a look at a two-year if we can put it together. >> that's a self-referential -- >> isn't it horrible? >> like i didn't listen to that? >> the two companies are locked in arbitration over diana, and chevron is a holding pattern for its purchase of hess. look at the difference in performance of these two stocks, jim, over the last couple of years. it is -- i remember a time when chevron's market cap was very close to that of exxon's. >> i know. >> now, exxon is almost twice the size. >> and yet, spending a lot of money doing carbon capture. >> it's more than twice the size. >> and pioneer was a brilliant deal. >> right, and obviously, you have the pioneer deal. >> brilliant. the permian stuff is fabulous.

would have thought? they're really big in permian. people thought they missed permian. look at that, will you? remember when exxon was the largest company? >> it was all stock, right? you did issue a lot there. >> sheffield had the greatest company. he had the -- he always wanted to do what was great for shareholders. >> meantime -- >> big natural gas pipeline. >> "journal" piece today, nat gas down 30% from the june peak. >> incredible, because a lot of it is that there's not enough pipe to use all the nat gas. it's important. rbn came out with that story this morning. really good. >> all feeds into the fed's calculus, of course, as we get closer to the powell speech on friday. check bonds today. you did have the two-year back with the three handle once again. we do have a 20-year auction at 1:00 and the big event of the day may be the minutes coming at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. stay with us.

ndx this morning. ross stores going to lead you, we get them later in the week. but you see lululemon, dollar tree, costco, amazon, and we get urban tonight. stop trading with jim is coming up next. ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone.

let's get to jim and stop trading. >> williams sonoma reports tomorrow. a higher price point i think represents still good value. well curated by laura albert and the reason i say this, this is the kind of stock if you really think the consumer is hurting, give me a break. you can attract people with vaul and i think laura albert has given you what we think of with martha stewart, great product at a not high price point. so if they deliver, it's a sign of who's running the store, not

the dollar amount. >> we tend to see optionality in specialty retail. >> lulu is up, it's been a pathetic performer, williams sonoma is good and up 40% of the year. i just think that laura is great. and my theory is brian cornell is great. the fellow at tjx is great. you have to look at who's at the helm. not so much -- >> i tell you, doug mcmillen, that's who. walmart is up 43%. exceeding a $600 market value and the walton family controls 46%. >> stump me on that. doug mcmillen is a merchant and a technologist, that's a rare combination. his humility bothers me. he takes no credit.

no ego whatsoever. >> yeah, sure. >> what were you saying, only my reporting is good? what the hell were you talking about? >> when did i say that. >> you said that. >> it's true, but i don't know when i said it. i think you heard a voice in your head. >> i did not. >> i have one people feel is under performing. >> snow. >> yeah. >> christmas in august. >> it's no longer slootman. i have to tell you, ramaswamy is from google but he's been called in question. save service now is a disaster. >> jim loofoard k rwto that. busy week continues. "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. when we come back, more on target rallying with the earnings. don't go anywhere. meet kandi technologies, where innovative, eco friendly design meets exceptional performance.

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good webs morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla and david faber seema mody here, sara eisen has the morning off. when you consider target, the fed minutes this afternoon, and revisions to payrolls in a few minutes -- >> we are 30 minutes into trading right now. here are three movers we're watching, toll brothers beating on the top and bottom line, the home builder also raised the outlook for the year. stock up 5.5%. macy's under pressure blowing past profit estimates but reporting a 4% decline in same store sales far worse than expectations and that stock is falling 14%. and the surge in target beating estimates, traffic up year over year, the company also raising guidance, the stock is up, brian cornell speaking about the results on "squawk box" earlier

this morning. take a listen. >> we said q2 was the time to get back to growth and that would be driven by traffic. traffic up 3% was an important market for us. but overall comes plus 2%. we saw acceleration in digital. digital growth led by drive up and our target circle 360 delivery to home, those are up 14%. and from an overall performance standpoint, for op income rate to get back to 6%, people have been waiting for that a while. >> 6.4% actually. >> i feel good about the progress we're making in the quarter. >> sara eisen spoke with target's cfo about the current environment on the consumer saying, quote, the consumer is resilient in the face of significant inflation pressure and expanding costs. they're seeking out value, and on prices, quote, we're pleased to see normalization in inflation. that's what's helping strength

return to discretionary categories. here with us is oliver with a reading on price target, 165. good morning what is stood out to you in target's results. >> great to be here. what's great about target it was traffic driven. also apparel was up 3%. we are encouraged. it was better than feared. we're hopeful this mean's the consumer is on a good track but the consumer remains volatile, choiceful, the consumer is willing and able to spend however value remains the key focus and consumers are still stressed and pressured. so a mixed picture here. you have macy's comping negative and target positive. the compare was more mod test for target at 17 times versus walmart 28 times. so we need to see continued consistency, this is the first time they've comped positive in

a while. can this continue? will the private brands continue to resonate. >> does that mean more price cuts? how does target build on the momentum? >> it means planning for price cuts, value, it also means will these private brands continue to resonate and will the apparel trends stay positive? we hope so. performance apparel, beauty is working. this needs to continue to work because the results at target have been fairly volatile. >> you're not a believer yet, then, olsfleiver, you want more terms of consistency? >> yes. i'm looking forward to what can happen there, david. they're building a better and better marketplace. our top idea is walmart in part because the technology opportunity, the value in food and the marketplace. but what we want to see is, more quarters of this performance at target and apparel resonating. also home getting better.

it's great proof points today. >> you did mention the disparities in multiples. walmart does trade higher for a reason. it's a $600 billion market value for that company. why prefer walmart given the performance of the stock this year, up 43% over that of target which basically all the gains for the year are today. >> as we look at walmart we see the fruits of artificial intelligence playing a role. particularly as you search for items, also with inventory management and computer vision. at the same time walmart a has an entrindustry -- and walmart walmart plus that's competitive relative to amazon prime. target circle making some progress, making the program easier but as we think about the

future of retail it's bricks plus clicks, but also where scale matters, technology matters, a.i. matters. on walmart as well, they are getting a higher income household customer as consumers can get great brands on the marketplace model, that's working as well at walmart and we're looking forward to that momentum in addition. >> macy's you're maintaining your hold rating there. what's your read on that stock? operating margins 4.4%, well above what the street was anticipating. >> what's happening at macy's they are seeing a heightened environment. also they're a work in progress with newer private brands which have been relaunched taking hold. macy's needs to appeal to a younger customer. department stores in in the mall is a tougher place with traffic

they're also executing on small format, which is a good thing but early innings. we're watching pieces, they need to get the younger customer, get the better product that trends right and focus on the aspects that drive more sustainable results really. and it's a tough competitive environment in apparel. >> clearly is, down 13%. thank you for waunging us through the retrail trade. >> my pleasure. the s&p and nasdaq on pace for a positive august. what's ahead, host of fed speak from jackson hole and the speech from the fed chair on friday. david rosenberg joins us. so many moving pieces about the consumer, waiting for revisions to come in, powell on friday. has anything prodded you to tweak your model? >> not really.

although the qcw numbers came out showing the nonfarm payrolls were overstated by 676,000. you know, we always trade off whether it's retail sales or nonfarm payrolls, the revisions which are head spinning. which is what caught my eye at the beginning of the year. the fed led by powell saying they're paying more attention to what business was telling them, highlighting the beige book and survey data and the like. >> there's an interesting tweet out of bill gross yesterday in which he posited what he thinks is going on you have wealthy boomers, and upper middle class folks transferring assets to millennials and gen x, do you

think that's what's happening? >> you know the -- we get carried away by the latest sales point and the retail number was un1% for july but you look at retail sales volumes on a year over year basis, it's actually fractionally negative year on year. i think if that theory was valid then you'd be seeing a lot more demand for first-time buying in the housing market. the first-time buyer has been awol of course they're ycrowded out by the super stretched affordability. so if people are giving their kids, grand kids money it's not put to work in the real estate market and not in the auto market because auto buying by

people between the ages of 16 to 24 isn in a full fledged bear market. maybe they're buying i phones or going to disney. you're not seeing it in the big ticket items for sure. >> watching the dollar weaken, down about 2% this month. how big of a role is the weaker dollar playing keeping stocks on the upward trajectory. >> the dollar only feeds through to the large capex port oriented internationals. i think i look at the dollar like the bond market. it's another price giving you a signal. and the dollar is a fair trade, exchange rate with other currencies and it's telling you what the bond market is telling you, which is that the fed is going to have to play catch down on declining interest rates with the rest of the world. most of the rest of the world

has started to cut interest rates. the bank of canada has already cut rates twice. never went to 5.5. they went to 5. so the fed in that tightening cycle went further than any other central bank and dragged their heels more than virtually every other central bank. so the dollar and the treasury market together telling you the fed is behind the proverbial curve and they have to cut rates faster than their competitors. that's what both markets are telling you right now. >> what do you think -- where do you think we end the year, dave, on the ten year? >> i think that we'll probably end the year, i'd say, somewhere in the 3.25, 3.5% range. and i don't think we're going to stop there. because i think, at a minimum, the fed is going to have to take the funds rate to its own estimate of eccquilibrium of tw

and three quarters and i think they'll have to go below that. so the curve will -- it's in the process thereof of moving towards normal positive slope. i think the whole yield curve comes down. year end i think will come down to 3 to 4 to 3.5. by the end of the cycle i wouldn't be surprised to be down as low as 2.5 on the ten year. >> that's what has folks worried about the down side risk on the yields. we'll see what we get on friday, that's for sure. maybe we'll talk before that. david rosenberg. as we head to break, the road map for the rest of the hour. energy sitting out the rally. more pain to come? shares of netflix are near all-time highs. down a fractional amount today. more on that move and what's next for the company with an analyst. and lvmh cefhi is out with a

big bet. what a.i. has to do wit. "squawk on the street" continues on this wednesday. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

let's get a check on the chips. analog devices citing improved inventory and momentum in orders in the fourth quarter but it talked about continued weakness in industrial and automotive.

similar from micro chip and texas instruments. texas instruments in the news for other reasons as well updating financial protections, david, yesterday slashing capital spending for 2026 from 5 billion to 2 to 5 billion increasing the free cash flow targets from 8 to $12 and the stock is responding and wall street seems to be as well. >> yeah. you know it's a few -- a couple of months ago at this point we were reporting on elliott's significant position in texas instruments and many at the time questioning any investor's ability to entertain a significant dialogue with management or get texas instruments to do anything different than it has in the past but in this case, the capex reduction is significant for them isn't it? >> it is. they took a more conservative opinion saying the financial projections are aggressive for

texas instruments given the build out of the plant here in the u.s. and all the spending they're trying to do on, again, being a player here in the u.s. that can deliver the more mature chips and make them domestically here. >> they have a long-term plan that requires a lot of capex and anticipate the demand will be here but there are some investors asking why you have to commit to so much of it over a long period of time. can't you do a pay as you go thing? >> right. the ceo made the projections these are tied to revenue targets saying they'll be more flexible on these targets, which is what wall street wanted to hear. positive response from elliott? >> yep. they're happy -- or seemingly their argument is getting some traction. >> with all the interest elliott is taking, nothing with intel?

>> no. >> which is going through its own challenges. >> that may tell you something. sometimes a company has such deep seeded issues there's nothing an activist could get them to do that's going to change the trajectory. >> that's the question as we wait to see what's next. >> got that credit rating cut on friday as well. >> still to come, stocks rallying the last week but not energy. we'll talk with a guest who says why there may be more pain ahead. let our expertise round out yours.

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i want to take a look at shares of jd.com, a retailer in china. why are we mentioning it? it used to have almost a 10% holder in walmart but no longer and that is pressuring the stock as you see. walmart in a filing indicating the 9.4% stake is no longer. it does not hold any shares and has apparently sold all 289 million of them at least. that was what the company held as of the end of last year. it was a significant stake, walmart of course has its own business in china, perhaps this

is a reflection of the fact that the company feels as though -- that is walmart -- it is able to compete effectively in the way it wants to and no longer wants to hold a stake in a so-called competitor in some way. shares of jd are down rather sharply on that news. >> watch energy today. in the red on the month. oil down almost 6% this month and the next guest said he sees pricing moving lower and china is a key factor. john kilduf joins us. >> good to see you. >> there's this politics of the middle east and the deteriorating demand especially with the focus on china. is the chinese part the heavier weight? >> it is to the extent the middle east situation stays somewhat cue es sent. i will tell you you can give a

potential parade of horribles here with what's going on with israel, gaza, iran and the entire region. the worst case scenario there argues for triple digit oil prices easily. but the reality on the ground keeps being the various sides, at least iran anyway, remains in check. remains unable or unwilling to take meaningful action against israel and spark something big. absent that the economic outlook is such particularly in china that oil prices are under pressure particularly as more opec plus countries try to squeeze out more and more barrels, keeping it supplied. >> you have tame gas prices going into september at least, a big piece in the journal about

nat gas production, you can't get it under $2, what scares you? >> really it's the middle east situation, carl. that can go really bad and could be really unfortunate. we don't want to make light of it at all. we have an active hurricane season ahead of us. if any storms spill into the gulf of mexico, given the high temperatures, any storm that goes up there is going to fall into a monster, affect along the gulf coast. that's the other worry for the market. but again the sky hasn't fallen, i don't think it's going to fall and we should be okay all around. even our production position offshore versus on shore is different than 15 or 20 years ago. we're not as vulnerable to gulf of mexico outages. we are however still extremely vulnerable to storm damage, flooding damages, and power

outages along the gulf coast. that's the wild card but that's the only one. >> so inclement weather middle east tensions how does that change the rhetoric from opec this fall. >> that's going to be interesting. i expect infighting. the plan is to have a slight production raise into the end of the year, into the beginning of the northern hemisphere winter, the global peak demand period. if we get wti prices below 70, which i expect down towards 65 that's going to gender a response, this market is great at drawing opec plus at doing something, reacting, punishing them with low prices and working against what they really want, which is much higher prices. so that deal will probably end up being extended, not terminated and see opec plus trying to constrain supply even deeper into 2025 than they might

otherwise have hoped. >> where are you in terms of expectations and u.s. production? 13.4, something around that right now? all-time highs, becoming an issue certainly in the presidential election as well. put it in perspective for the viewers where we are and where we're headed? >> the biden administration has hardly been a horror show for sure. record levels of oil production and our oil and gas folks are amazing what they've done. they've engineered their way to break even prices in the $30 range. so i don't see that production going down much. hard to see it going up very much because there are infrastructure pipeline constraints which is where arguably the administration policies do come into play a bit and hold back on that. but i don't see the american dominance, really, globally. we are the number one oil producer, one of the largest oil exporters we have saved the

world's bacon in terms of the supply constraints that did materialize in the russian invasion of ukraine. we're in good shape here and i expect that to continue if not higher production in the months ahead. >> the europeans can attest to that. this morning david brought up exxon versus chevron on a one year and i wonder if you have any thoughts about why the spread between those two names? if not, i wonder more broadly if you think the picture for energy m&a has changed markedly in the last couple of quarters. >> some of the low hanging fruit has obviously been picked up, carl. as far as exxon, it's just best in class, has been. their acquisition of pioneer, which was a downgrade in my view. but exxon of course very, very

aggressive as well with the dividend and the like. chevron bogged down by the refining margins of late. we had the halson days for a while there after the russian invasion of crukraine, all thos fears got baked into the price but it's gone. 75 oil is not cheap in my opinion neither is $3 plus gasoline but they're all doing terrific. it's not the halson days a couple of years ago. and also, they are ann event risk play. if things we can't predict goes off the rails in the middle east, these are stocks that participate to the upside whether everything else may go down. >> we've seen that in both directions depending on what the news is. john good stuff as always. good to see you. >> thanks, good to be with you. >> let's get a news update.

>> the legal team for president biden's son hunter is expected to appear in a california courtroom this afternoon, just weeks before he's set to stand trial on federal tax charges. the judge will weigh in on a week's long fight between the defense and prosecutors over what evidence and testimony jurors should be allowed to hear in the case. a murder suspect who escaped from a mississippi courthouse in june was taken into custody after a long standoff with police in chicago at a restaurant. authorities say joshua zimmerman was blocks from the democratic national convention though there was no indication of any connection to the event. u.s. marshals say zimerman was held in mississippi on attempted murder, armed robbery charges and waiting extradition to texas where he's charged with murder. sources tell nbc news, divers in italy discovered the

bodies of two people in a super yacht that sank in a violent storm monday. we know british tech tycoon mike lynch and five others were believed to be trapped in the hull, back to you. coming up after the break, netflix shares all time high. we'll break it down with one analyst who says it can continue. after this.

watching the markets here, dow continues to hover just below 41k, s&p holding 5600. bob pisani is here to talk about what's moving. >> slow week, ftraditionally. volumes are about 22% of august. but we have a nice move, 2 to 1 advancing to declining stocks today. leading sectors, consumer discretionary, target pulling that sector up. but semis continuing up today.

really what you want to watch is staples. they have been performing well, new highs in consumer staples today. health care is taking a breather after a strong run recently. banks also down slightly. we have a very broad advance though in retail thanks to positive comments from target. apparel is doing well thanks again to target highlighting strong sales in apparel that was a surprise. you see tjx and gap. dick's is up. walmart, tjx, ross stores all time highs here. burlington also, 52 week highs. there are consumer names doing well here. not so strong the department stores they have laggards in the retail space, macy's down 13%. the earnings there. dillard's, nordstroms, kohl's.

spdr retail etf, which is a big one, equal weighted about 100 retailers here, everything is 1 or 2% in that. there's a competitor van eccretail, that's moving. not surprisingly this is weighted towards amazon almost 20%. top five including walmart and costco, they're 50% of the index. these do well when you get market caps moving up, that's the one you want to own at this point. >> see you in a bit. bob pisani. you can see got the payroll revisions. let's get to rick santelli. >> the range of how many jobs they would take away for a variety of reasons, maybe the largest is the birth/death model for businesses is between 350 and 1000 and 1 million and it comes in at 118,000.

this is a preliminary benchmark revision. the actual financial revision will be in february of next year. and as you look at intradays of two year and ten year, look at the amount of volatility, especially in twos. most closely associated with the fed. it's been down as low as 3.92 up as high as basically 4%. also volatility in the long dated treasuries but not as much. why is this such a big deal? i'll tell you why. because the handoff from what the fed is looking at, from basically an inflation-driven notion of a triggered ease to a weakening labor market. if in one fail swoop we took away 818,000 jobs what does that mean for the foundation that the fed built the keep rates higher house on. and i've been talking about this. traders thought the numbers have been running rich. we've seen revisions.

this goes above and beyond that. so 818,000 is the number, it's on the high side. and i would look for this particular data point to most likely put the session lows and yields in if for the day. and don't forget we have a 20 year bond auction at 1:00 eastern that may get affected by this news. carl, back to you. >> we were talking with bob here at the desk, risk, about the estimates about the revision. i know goldman was the 600k to a million range. >> you could drive a truck through that. but 800,000 is exactly in the middle of the estimate there. i'm not sure this is out of the range of what people were expecting given how difficult it is to forecast these. >> comes ahead of fed meeting minutes tonight. >> i don't think we're expecting too much from that. the sense here on the floor is everybody is expecting powell to lay the ground work for rate cuts. talk about job growth, still there but slowing down a bit. the economy is still strong but

slowing. the goldilocks scenario people are anticipating to hear from powell. i haven't heard anything, including the revisions, to indicate he's going to say something dramatically different. >> does the bond reaction tell you anything material about the print? >> it doesn't really tell me anything material about it. i think the volatility tells me the most. and benchmark revisions this time of year and february are main stays in the treasury complex but i've never seen so much attention paid. so really to answer your question it does have potentially big implications as we go into jackson hole and see what some of the fed personnel think about the revision and it really does have to play havoc a little bit with how they want to proceed. in my opinion, there's many things about this that pretty much cement, cement the rate cut in september. if it wasn't already two bricks stuck together already.

>> bob, coming back to the broader market, everybody has their sta ttistics they can cit every time in the last five times we've had an eight day winning streak. w we've had a strong year on the market. up 18% on the s&p. the possibility of back-to-back 20% years, wanted to get your thoughts? >> extremely unushual. the historic average is 8 to 10% gains with 1 to 3% dividends in there. you can figure average numbers in there, 6, 7, 8% gains on the year, excludeing dividends. 20% year i can get you the numbers but that occurs fairly rarely, just like a down 20% year occurs rarely. the market goes up 75% of the time. three out of four years the s&p 500 rises this is why long-term

investing works. 20% back-to-back years i'll get you the stat on that, i don't have that but it's very rare. it doesn't happen very often. still when you look at what's happening right now, the fact that you have consistently been wrong in expectations of a recession, we have been waiting for two years now, we're coming up on the two-year anniversary of the recession we thought was going to happen and still has not happened. still seeing strong economic gains over all. the atlanta fed gdp is 2.9% for the third quarter. that ain't close to anywhere recessionary and i don't hear anything about recessionary numbers for the fourth quarter either at this point. so what happens is, when you have earnings expected to be up 10% a year in 2024 and 15% in 2025, and have not changed, nobody is taking those numbers down dramatically, along with reasonable gdp growth, my

heavens you don't have to be a genius to figure out you're going to get an upyear, rather notably, whether it's 20% or 15% that's subject to debate. we have the tail end of the a.i. game here, that's another issue. >> your point has been if you took out mag seven this year -- >> you would still be up about 10%, yeah, on the year. so this is why people stay long in the market. this is why it's very difficult to do market timing, very difficult to pick sectors this may be the top in the a.i. story, i suspect it is not. at least it appeared to be in the last few months. but long term who doesn't believe the a.i. is going to change -- >> one week away from the nvidia earnings speaking of tech. we were looking at how nvidia has reacted post earnings five of the last six quarters nvidia has gained about 10% the day after reporting earnings. so even this time around with questions around a black well delay, expectations are high

going into the report. >> the expectation here is the echo gets smaller each time they do it. i would an ticipate a nice earnings beat. but the last two years nvidia's numbers went up so much, it was shocking the play they had the market had to play catch up and i think the market is already anticipating these kinds of beats. i think you're going to get very important comments but i don't think you're going to get the same, sudden move to the upside that you had in, say, 2022 and 2023. >> stock at 129 a share. >> stocks have aed tddo gains since that revision, now 5630. we'll take a short break, talk to liesman on the other side about what it might mean. bag. how does that sound? that sounds terrible. ♪♪ ♪♪

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this week's jackson hole economic sim ymposium key for investors but that's not the only thing going on. let's get to more with crypto. >> the central bank is gathering this week, salt and cracken are hosting the decentralized finance community. there are about 250, 300 people here and a focus on institution, blac blackrock, morgan stanley, are all represented here. many enthusiasts are clammering for the next etf but asset managers say they're focused on producting a portfolio with the

current market offerings. and there's actually little appetite for venturing into the next big coin. tokenization and stable coins are a theme here. i spoke to wyoming's governor about the plan to launch its own stable coin. if that works they'd like to tokenize other assets like gold and real estate. yesterday blackrock said one of the biggest challenges is where and what everyone wants to technto tokenize. they're excited to token eiseize everything under the sun. >> thank you. coming up t ninheext hour, the outlook for gold as prices hit record high after record

high. we'll talk to the chief of barrick to see if that can continue.

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let's bring in steve liesman on the phone from jackson hole with some reaction to those job revisions. steve, market initially took it as fairly dovish, historically, though, it is a pretty good revision, right? >> yeah, you've got to go back to 2009 to find a bigger downward revision here. it looked like in '09, they went down by what's the number here, minus 824. so that's slightly smaller than that. that, of course, was a time when the economy was in free fall. it's not when you parse it out over the 12-month period, again, this is the 12-month ending in march of 2024, so it's a little unclear what it means, how well it is for today's jobs numbers. but it comes up to 68,000. so essentially, what we were doing, instead of doing two 50-average, where we were doing 185 to 200,000 in that zone, it depends a little bit. they'll parse it out over the months in february. this is the total for the year

ending march 2024. jobless claims have been running relatively low. remember, this is a process by which they chew up the payroll report to be actual jobless claims numbers, where the jobless unemployment benefits that are being paid. there is a question, carl, that's interesting, from a goldman sachs report about how they're counting immigrants here, unauthorized immigrants and whether they should or sh should not be counted in the payroll. so goldman sachs says they're throwing people off of the payrolls that actually were on the payrolls. i guess that's a debate for another day. net/net, when you see that the payrolls have been revised down, they were slightly less hot than they were, somewhat dovish, but i'm not sure how much signal to take. it's a big number. i think it will be played politically by both sides a little bit, certainly by the republican side, suggesting that there was more weakness in the

jobs market. but still, you ran 200,000 or so over that time period, and the question, was the fed too hot or too tight during this time. probably not, if those numbers came out to 200,000, would the fete likely have pursued the same process. does this mean that they should be lower now? i'm not sure if they should be much lower. but net/net, was does 818 downward on the payrolls mean? the contemporary data will be much nor influential. >> as we dount down to jerome powell's speech on friday, how do you think this piece of data informs what he says about the jobs market, and now we've seen four consecutive months, a rise in unemployment. >> i think that's right. i think that's a significant factor. and there's going -- there'll be some discussion about the issue of unemployment and how much it's gone up and whether or not we're back down to a more normal, what they call the beverage curve, which is the relationship of job openings to

unemployment, and it's now down to 1.2. it had been as high as 2. we are getting closer to a normal job market. that's an argument for the fed to ease rates. the question being, really, it's not an "if they do," but "how much they do." it's likely 25. jobless claims have been running 235. i think the fed will take more signal from that than the 818. but this will argue that the job market is not quite as tight as it previously were. and the fed will be thinking more about this immigration issue, which has made it difficult to figure out how many people are on payroll. they'll be listening for that and watching for that. and we have a lot of good interviews coming up, as you know. and we'll talk to the committee. remember, powell is a person who has run this committee almost virtually by unanimity. he has fewer dissents than his predecessors when it comes to making policy. he'll want to come in in a place where the committee is nearly unanimous, if they're not actually unanimous. but that will be a bigger -- a

big factor as well. >> steve, we're watching the equity markets come off a bit from highs, perhaps concern about recession rising ever so slightly. can you come back to me -- come back for me to the illegal immigrant part of this? i want to make sure i understand it and our viewers do as well in terms of what impact, what you were talking about there. >> yeah, i need to do some more work on this, david. and i'll read you from the goldman sachs report that i had read earlier on this issue. we think that the down revision will be misleading for two reasons, they said. since this is based on unemployment insurance records, it will likely erroneously eliminate 300 to 500,000 unauthorized immigrants who were correctly recorded as working in the initial payrolls data. and this report has been revised up in nearly every quarter since 2019. so, as you know, david, there was a large influx of immigrants. they were put to work. they may not be receiving or

otherwise be recording unemployment benefits. so that's really the issue right there. david, it has been very confusing, especially when it comes to the unemployment rate. it was mentioned earlier, the unemployment rate has gone up. there is some talk, david, that this is the result of immigrants coming into the labor force, but not necessarily finding jobs right away. and as you know, the immigrant workforce that has come into the united states has increased the labor force and a large percentage of these folks have been put to work. so, david, it's a very confusing time for the data right now. and this issue could be, i guess, polluting the actual data or the right data to figure out how many people are working, how many people are recording -- are on the unemployment insurance records. so i wish i could be more clear on this. i just know that goldman has written a piece that says, this is something that pollutes this data. >> got it. no, that's helpful, steve, to

try to understand it overall, especially given the outsized nature of it versus what you say that we've seen. it hasn't been since, what, '09 or something along those lines. steve liesman obviously reporting for us. by the way, if you wondered the last time we had up 20% on the s&p 500, two consecutive years, it was '97 when we were up 31% d 8 ene rep 27%. oh, i remember those years well. we'll see. the s&p is only up about 17.5% right now. about opportunities like advances in healthcare. and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar.

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good wednesday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with seema mody at post nine of the new york stock exchange. today, market with a sharp move on these revised u.s. payrolls, now giving some back. what that means for september fed. we'll discuss. >> then the most active activists. a look at the rising number of campaigns eliot management is undertaking, including in names like southwest airlines, starbucks, and texas instruments. >> the ceo of barrett golds with us as the commodity comes off another all-time. >> right now, marks losing steam, with the dow currently turning negative after that payroll revision. we're looking at the dow currently down about