snacks? >> that's how they entice you. >> it's a bit of a mixed day for the markets. amex is a headwind there. we have the s&p up 1.3%, but the russells are also up, as they finally take a leadership position. down a business after the payroll numbers. let's start with the fed minutes. emily wilkins is in washington. >> reporter: hey, kelly, from the fed minutes, for the fed governors, they saw that inflation was eased over the last year, but it remained elevated. all of them supported maintaining the current range, but there was some port for a quarter-point cut in that july meeting, and inflation was going towards of 2% goal, but they needed greater confidence before reducing that rate.

job number a huge interest today, the fed said the labor market was in a better plate, but there were concerns that below employment numbers was overstated. they did say there were increased increases to employment. of course, that comes as you're seeing decreased risks to inflation, though they said in their minutes inflation measures might persist for some time, but overall there was sense for a better balance for inflation and employment objectives, and some said they were more or less balanced than that july meeting. they also looked at consumer spending, showing that lower and moderate households had credit card delinquency rates. so, certainly setting up a lot there in those meeting minutes. you can kind of see that confidence emerging on inflation, certainly it will be interesting to see from powell

this friday. >> great. thank you, emily. let's get some reaction to the fed minutes, and we talked about it all morning, waiting for the bls revision, which happens -- >> it was like 10:30 when it calms out, which was a half hour late, which really isn't supposed to happen. bill, good to see you. i won't say good morning. old habits diehard. can we start and put that to bed? every year it's done. this was one of the larger revisions, i think the largest since 2009. still a solid job market, whether it's 240 or 170, still pretty solid. i didn't know this morning whether it would be bullish other bearish for the markets, because if it's not as hot as we thought, it gives the fed more

leeway, doesn't it? was it a disappointment this morning? it wasn't even losing them. we just counted it differently. >> exactly. it's a sigh of relief that that number came down with a hefty number. 200-plus, 240, 250,000 a month average is way too hot for the normal economy slowing down to a more steady pace. closer to normal is not just 175, but closer to 100, 125. so that's what's needed to keep the people in the labor force employed. so we're looking for numbers that kind of converge down. it's still a pretty strong economy. how many new jobs has averaged

somewhere around 90 thousand, so we knew they see two had to converge. we can't have this divergence, clearly there was a miscalculation that chair powell told us about. in a probably doesn't push the fed one way or another, but given that brief growth scare that we had a month ago, and the vix spike, the soft landing narrative was in question, does this do anything to allay those fears or rekindle those fears, that maybe the fed is late? >> not at all. in fact, thops had me scratching my head. how can you have a recession when there's no layoffs, or you have a recession when the rate went up? so it really is a sign with a

high participation rate that people are perceiving the economy as doing quite well. emily said in the minutes that the fomc did take about slowing discretionaries consumption. that's a concern we all have been thinking, where is the consumer finding the money? right now the gap is several percentage points. when you look at households, who mass the savings? the stock market market and protection wealth, that is the top 50%. when you talk about the lower 50%, they hold maybe 2% of all stock market and pension wealth, so it's really the top earners that have been doing the consumption. even they are starting to slow down. that has the fed concerned about where it is that consumption they are looking for.

they think the downward revision is overstated, because the jobless claims, and also the qcw, and it's not probably we need to go down by 818k, but maybe by 2 or 300, 25k per month is not moving the needle on what continues tore a growing economy. >> what it really means, getting back to my stratification is that more and more people, especially in the lower 80% of the income distribution are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet. that's why there's no increase in number of people getting employed from unemployed, but the huge payroll growth means

more and more people are finding side gigs, second jobs in order to make ends meet. it if you're a gen xer or millennial, one of the necessities is the ability to travel, where the baby boomers is house and expense. >> there's a bunch of apps, these millennial -- what are you? >> a millennial. >> bill, i should have known now to talk about, she -- she is a nerd. you got into the weeds? >> it is qc double, but there's a larger effect. >> i want to hear about somm

rule. but to what extents are unauthorized migrants affecting all of these measures. it's affecting the downward revision, in other words, the labor market is stronger than is assumed, but a lot of that captures jobs going to unauthorized migrants. we're not seeing enough hiring to fully absorb all of that right now. that's why the unemployment rate, in part, is going up. >> is the income earned by the extra payrolls enough to push the inflation back up again. is there a danger it will reignite the inflation? most of these side gigs are in leisure and other areas, so it doesn't seem like it's generating the kind of spending power you would think. as far as the fed is concerned and as far as what jay powell will say, the economy is doing

well, the labor market is still strong and we're on our way to lowers rates. >> you say that loud, you say it proud. that's not a disparages -- the nerd. >> i'm not cool enough to be a nerd. >> bill, i work at the milkin, do you ever use the words "i'm highly confident" in what you're talking about? do you remember when you needed debt financing in the good old days of -- >> yes, i remember. i rarely use it. i use it now because i'm pretty confident. when i was at citibank, they weren't los angelesing to you when you said that. >> bill, thank you. still got the fastball? people don't know what i'm talking about. >> i never go to canada.

>> this is me. our live coverage from jackson hole kicks off tomorrow with steve liesman interviewing the president of the kansas city and philadelphia fed. that begins tomorrow on "squawk box." serr s cer serendipitous that it's happening. we weren't in a hiking mode for a long time, and it seems like we've been in this -- >> the hiking? since june of 2022. that expectations on friday and monday it went 75. >> nerd. >> they're on pace for

back-to-back weekly gains. rebecca patterson is the former -- she joins you from the dnc, and mark le cheney is at montgomery scott. rebecca, welcome. we bot into the weeds on the payroll. kind of take us back to the big view on the markets. >> it's been fascinating to me how investors and economists are seesawing on every earnings or media release we get. as bill lee said, it is all about the consumer. will the consumer keep spending enough to have a hand-off from demand-driven earnings to fed cutting supporting equity valuations. to me that's the question mark. joe, to your earlier point, i don't have a lot of confident on this point. i prefer to approach this with a

diversified portfolio. i remain positive on gold and large caps. regardless of where we go, that's where i want to. >> she's taking another victory lap on gold. >> i wish i had ball those gold bars now worth a million. i noticed you didn't mention crypto. >> ah. >> it's one of your highest conviction things right now. >> gold to me, for the last year or so, hasn't had anything to do with the u.s. economy or politics. it's been a china story and the chinese central banking, but also the china ease consumer who feels really stuck.

even the last couple days , this is a -- this is where they're going where they don't know where else to go. and now it's not chinese bonds with the chinese government threatening to intervene. >> mark, what would you add? >> i concur with rebecca. o so established a price target, and we've met that, and i've raced now subsequently the price target something closer to 3,000, for the reasons that rebecca mentioned, we wrote about that a come the months ago, even if the absence or retail buying for instruments

like gld, we're seeing massive flows into gold. having said that, i think obviously looser central bank policies is also helping to put a bid into gold prices. not only with regard to central bank buys, but also geopolitical tensions. >> yeah. even though i know we're talking about china and central bank demand and all the rest, mark, i wonder about the signal. it was worrisome? or not necessarily? >> if you look at it in conjunction with several other sectors. we've seen leadership hag the

cloochk defensive sectors. even the beleaguered investment trust, even though the cnet leadership by the tech-related companies, i think it does suggest that programs investors are positions more cautiously, you know, seasonality probably plays a role as a tight now president atrace. i think gold fits the context in which, again as rebecca mentioned, which is to say that large caps and gold seems like defensive posturing for a portfolio that is long risk assets. >> we're through it, because it's an all-time high, trying to get to what the next resistance is, because i don't know.

i could see much higher, and he told me, it was the future. we're at 2548. i said what is the next leastance? >> he says 2550. [ laughter ] he was talking spot. >> one thing that you and kellie can keep an eye on with jackson hole, it's not just about powell and interest rates, but we also have central speakers from japan, uk and europe. currencies are two ways. that matters for the dollar. the dollar has fallen about 2.2% against the dxy. it's still up year to date against peers, but it's given up gains, where it goes next will matter for gold, and also for a lot of stock choices, to watching them from overseas will

matter. though powell is the most important factors. >> the currency might be more important than they've been in a lott long time. don't stay on your phone a lot, rebecca. it's affecting all the different -- look what happened with the yen a couple -- >> absolutely, right? totally, yes, yes, i would love to come back more, joe. i miss you. >> good. in the morning, we'll do that. >> okay. i'm up. >> now i'm poaching again, poaching guests. we have more time in the morning, rebecca. >> just keep going. >> rebecca, i'll text i decrease i'm kidding. >> mark, you too. >> thank you both. [ laughter ] target shares are spiking, even as the discounter giving a

cautious sales outlook. huge move, though. we had brian on this morning, he was statesman like. you didn't see that, you guess, you were sleeping. >> i wish i was. plus, ford cancelling the electric three-row suv, and shifting the ev strategy. the stock is higher. we're going to break down all these moves when we retu.rn ♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary.

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target is still in catch-up modes. they snapped a four fourth quarter streak in decline. traffic across jumped 3%. they shopped more discretionary, and the studenter recently reduce prices. with the sales outlook. it's stuck by the previous forecast, but said now it expects those sales to be in the lower half of the range. s. >> it's like, yes, the stock is up, but it's -- full-year

outlook is not all that thrilling. give you some context. >> exactly. this is part of a broader pattern from costco, home depot. macy's joined the chorus today. if sales are up at target, why didn't they increase their target for both sales and for profit. >> can i ask you a question? have you ever said "pool noodles"? >> and they're $1 at target. >> do you know what they are? >> now that i know, i need them as bed rails. >> what are up you thinking? >> now that i know they're a buck. >> you make those little different colored, and part of the price cuts, because they were looking at what do people

die through the year. >> i need like ten of them, maybe three for a bed. >> how would is the oldest? >> six. >> do not do this! [ laughter ] don't try this at home. going in my shopping cart. let's shift gears to ford, which itself is shifting gears, in the develop of hybrid models. a big story. phil lebeau has the details. >> hey, kelly, this is a move that investors are cheering, largely because this is ford saying if we could make money out of the gate on an ev, we're not going to make it, delay it or shift our strategy. today they announced as part of their new approach over the next several years, they're going to delay product at a den see plant that will he coming online.

they will have thee new electric models in 2026 and 2027. this is not a move that doesn't come without costs. in this case, this change is going to cost them and they up 1.5. their sales, when you look at them, compared to their competitors in the united states, they've been increasing them ata pretty healthy clip. up 75% year to date. but evs are just 4.4% of ford's total sales. they're losing money on these deals. on average $44,000 for every ev that they sell. for ford, the idea here is clearly we're doing much better in hybrids. let's prioritize those and

deprioritize evs why the market, a, is slow, and b, while ford is racking up high costs in terms of making these evs. >> it's an incredible validation of what toyota has done and where the market is. phil, thank you very much. after the break, is crude oil's recent sell-off overdone? we'll discussion it in our "market navigator" when "power lunch" comes right back. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours.

when we started feeding bogie the farmer's dog, he lost so much weight. pre-portioned packs makes it really easy to keep him lean and healthy. in the morning, he flies up the stairs and hops up on my bed. in the past, he would not have been able to do any of those things.

welcome back. in "market navigator," scott nations joins us now. good to see you. how would you play oil here with futures? >> i would be buying crude oil in the november contract. we were there just a few minutes

ago, it rallied 45 cents since then. we're still at the bottom of the year-to-date low, so i want to get back into the middle of that rain, the market would therefore be a. and the stop we're always going to trade future with the stop. again, crude oil has hurt by fears of economic weakness, down more than 2% early today, on the revisions to the jobless number, but economic growth is still decent, if not great. inventories were down 4.5 million barrels last week, more than the surprise build in the week before that, and if you look at the chart, you'll see the crude oil near the bottom of the year to date, and given the

fact that decent economic growth and the potential for geopolitical problems, crudes oil is a buy here. >> though, what is interesting about that, demand has been weak, so even if you like the better u.s. potential, don't you have the headwinds still to fight? >> china is the issue. china is the problem the u.s. economy, as far as what's going to drive crude oil? >> scott, thank you. still to come, luxury the

lvmh chief using his entire wallet to shop around for tech companies to investmt enin. we have that story, next. is it possible to be more capable? and more practical? be able to perform here.

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welcome back. for bernard arnot, it's not all designer suits. >> you could not have scripted that better. >> you show up every morning strutting in there. >> and now you're dressed properly. >> you look great with the jacket. i was thinking you have -- >> sorry, i'm not gonna do it. i'm not gonna do it. bernard arnault's family office has invested in five startups this years. >> that's right, joe, the family office was part of a $220 million funding round.

it was founded by former members of google's deep mine property, was invested in lamini, and proxima, and also photoroom and borderless ai. arnault is now the third richest person in the world, has a lot of money to buy stuff, and a long history of betting on tech. he was an early investor in netflix, spotify and airbnb. not all of his bets have paid off. he invested in 75 internet companies during the dot-com boom, and, quote, some of them made it, many didn't. they're 78 of them plan to investment in ai over the next two years, and if you want to know more on where family offices and the wealthy are

investing, you can sign up for mu newsletter at cnbc.com, or scan the qr code right there on your screen with your phone. >> what is interesting to me, last year, the year before, you look at the number one sector, it was health care, robotics, and now all of a sudden in the u.s. it's 83% is their top investment the next two years, so that's where the big money is going, at least in the private marks. >> nvidia is the only one we know that will -- >> that's right. there's all of this under the surface in the private markets where a lot of wealth is being created that we don't see in the

equity market. they have a lot to deploy. >> okay. frank, can you figure out how to tax 25% of the unrealized gains in the private market? >> if you can stay tuned -- we'll have you do it -- yes, we will have a lot of tax coverage more. >> would you have to value that and pay taxes? >> absolutely. >> my god, this could never, ever worked? >> well, stay tuned tomorrow. >> the reason we're talking about it is, they may try to do that. >> there is a proposal that's been endorsed by harris that would tax all your wealth if you're worth more than $100 million. >> that's something that people say we need -- >> that's a high bar. >> it's not going to be our problem. >> who knows? you're both still young.

you could get there. >> that's nice of you to get there, even though there's some sarcasm. >> no, absolutely not. you look the part today. see you tomorrow. >> it will be fun day for all of that. his, bertha. hey, kelly, former president donald trump is holds his first outdoor rally after surviving an assassination attempt. it's surrounded by panes of bulletproof glass. storage containers have been stacked around the perimeter to create additional walls and block sight lines. a federal judge has struck down a military policy that -- in a rule filed tuesday, the judge called the policy irrational and arbitration, and the defense department had argued there was a risk of

bloodborne transmission is combat settings and it would incur more costs with sun enlisting with hiv. it's that time of your. pump condition spice latte flavors start tomorrow. it returns two days earlier, and a full month before autumn officially begins. competitor dunkin' hasn't concerned it's launch date. this will be the 21st year for star starbucks. >> you know, i like -- brian, what is going to happen, bertha? are there going to be some i'm auction for it. >> if they did mexican hot chocolate, i would be so psyched. >> that's a great idea. >> oh, that would be the best. >> what do we know?

he's going to commute occasionally, but work remote most of the time? what do we know? i'm sorry. >> that i'm not sure of, but i would imagine anywhere he lives there has to be a starbucks nearby. that's the way it is for most of us. >> they moved which i pot lael headquarters to where he lives. if he pulls this off and it's the greatest third act we have ever seen or he doesn't, and he's still pretty well regard. >> i would say they need to get away from the high fructose syrup drinks and actually get to flavor. it's not on a glp-is, but i can't do all that sugar, and as people lose more weight, they want to avoid it as well. >> do you know what it took for chipotle to go begging the guy running taco bell -- >> they didn't -- >> i know.

they had to admit that taco bell is better. >> what he did at taco bell was incredible. >> it's not even in the same sport, much less ballpark. mark your calendar for the second annual game plan summit on september 10th. it brings together legendary leaders and visionaries. scan the qr code on the screen, please, or go to cnbc events. we're coming right back.

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welcome back to "power lunch." the nasdaq and russell 200 are leading the way as we try to string together green across the board. let's turn our fancy to the bond market as well. we also have the fed minutes with jackson hole and hearing

from powell friday morning on the way. rick, what do we make of it all? >> i think today's big revision on jobs will make the fed's job both easier and more complicated. look at the charts, you know, two-year is at 395, 10:33 eastern, with the delay, when the information hit the wires. you can see -- we have indeed see it also reflex the big move in interest rates hovering, all i notice -- know is garbage in/garbage out. we learned that 818,000 jobs accounted, we're not counting them anymore. does that make a difference to

you? >> well, what we see is it's the biggest revisions since 2009. what we saw in the marketplace is the repricing of volatility. we think it might have been overshareholder last week a bit they may have gotten oversold a bit. >> now, as we get further into the week, we'll see jackson hole be a bigger issue. is the timing of jackson hole affecting any of the plays or positions with respect to volatility or hedging? because there could be some takedowns, as we used to call it. >> rick, it might be a bit of muted volumes until friday. we do have a lot of customers in a wait-and-see pattern until we

hear from powell. >> are we see a differential between zero days of expiration options, and the vix where there's more of a time issue? for just a little lazier than the rest? >> perhaps for this week, but there is always a lot of interest in the zero day options. really where we see the bond movement is in the back part of the curve. >> gotcha. jackson hole in its entire, probably a fed will that jibe into the headlines. do you see anything today that will change your long-term views? >> i don't know if it changes the long-term view, per se, but when it starts to get into play. i think the number we have seen this week might give another feather in that cap to start

that revision and move where they see fit. the down side to the fed and their path might be in delaying further. >> i got you. i got you. not necessarily higher for longer, but coming down slower than they normally would. i know i'm going to kick this back to joe kernen, but i have to ask, minus 818,000 means nothing. i haven't heard anybody say it means anything. i think it's important they built the foundation at the fed based on the strength of the labor market. what do you think, joe? >> i knew you probably did think that, rick. out of everything i tweeded today is i just updated it. i've never seen more stuff coming in that kinda might be taking your side of things, rick. i would never weigh in as far as anything like a personal opinion. >> no, no.

i hope everybody tunes in, because i will be talking about it later. >> that's 5:00 p.m. eastern. me? shares of netflix near all-time highs. i can't believe that it made the round trip. do you believe that? >> wild. >> unbelievable. >> which would you rather own now? >> i don't know. the predictions are hard, especially about the futures. we're trading it and more after a quick brea k. ♪♪ [inner monologue] in this gig... you get comfortable being uncomfortable. ♪♪

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david wagner is a portfolio manager. let's start with netflix. what an incredible run for the shares, all-time high yesterday, after they reported a huge jump in advertising sales. are you jumping on this one, taking it higher? >> i'm not jumping on this one. it's great fundamental momentum. there's no denying that $700, but current valuation, i wouldn't be adding on it. the reality is the stock was may more volatile than it should be off one data point. they're morphing into more of a gorpy stock. this situation reminds me of apple when they stopped

reporting iphone usage sales. i'm not adding to the position, just riding the wave. >> i have no idea if he went do all three, so we gotta go quick. david, it's like antimatter meeting matter. the world might end. tjx, raised the full-year guidance. what about this one? >> i'm not sure if i can call myself a contrarian, but i get the notion, you know, there's the nay sayers that write the stock off due to the sickly cal, but you buy the stock for its growth. you know, that means the company can deliver earnings growth of 14%, well above the 10% earnings growth. and a market that continues to see slowing growth, come buy a stock that's seen accelerating

growth. >> he's a talker. i like it. do you ever see "squawk box"? >> that's like the third person you've tried to -- [ laughter ] >> you gotta stay loyal. >> can i do both? amex. >> i love the downgrade here. >> we talked to the analyst last hour, he was great, and he had a -- go ahead. what would you do with the stock? >> you know, it's a contrarian play, i love it. they're skating where the puck is going, you know, i believe that revenue guidance needs to come down from the 9% to 11% range. i don't care how cheap the stock is relative to the bellwethers, so i'm staying on the sidelines right now. >> thank you, david.

i really appreciate t david wagner. don't take any calls from other numbers. it's been real, un. >> thank you for coming. the lunch will be served after this. >> we just this a three stock lunch. >> thank you for watching. "closing bell" start right now. all right. guys, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." this make-or-break hour starts with stocks on the run. all eyes now on jackson hole where fed chair powell confirming what the market thinking will happens or disappoints. this is your scorecard. there were some gyrations earlier today following big downward revisions. yields did litch on that news. we're holding positive, though, now on