wagner. don't take any calls from other numbers. it's been real, un. >> thank you for coming. the lunch will be served after this. >> we just this a three stock lunch. >> thank you for watching. "closing bell" start right now. all right. guys, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." this make-or-break hour starts with stocks on the run. all eyes now on jackson hole where fed chair powell confirming what the market thinking will happens or disappoints. this is your scorecard. there were some gyrations earlier today following big downward revisions. yields did litch on that news. we're holding positive, though, now on stock's target after they

exceeded expectations. the company getting a muted outlook. stocks good for 12%. a nice day for tjx, we're follow that, one, too. let's ask stephanie link, i'll be gin with you. >> sure. >> is there enough good news to keep the trend on track? >> i don't like the set up-to-friday. we are up 8% from the lows. the expectations for the fed to be dovish really is prevalent. three cuts are what most people are thinking between now and the end of the year. i'm not sure we're going to get it. i certainly don't think we'll have powell telling us that. i know the minutes were kind of

dovish. there's some that wanted to go in july. most think september, okay, but i don't think we'll get the all clear. >> why would he need to do that? why can't we just get the 25 out of the way first and figure that this is the start of a cutting trend, which we bless it is. >> i think it's possible for the long term, but we've had such a nice bounce. just 2 1/2 weeks ago, up 8%. >> that's true. >> we know what the nasdaq has done. we know what the mast mag 7 has done. in the short, short run. long term, i think it's positive, cuts are definitely coming. i think they can, i think they will. i don't know if we'll get a lot of conviction on friday. >> brian belski, i don't think

your view is all that different. >> scott, thank rho having on us on, we like to remind investors that september is the worst month of the year. when we have a volume tiff third quarter, we typically have a double-digit gain in the fourth quarter. i'm with stephanie. i'm doubtful at three cuts. i really am. number two, we are one macco data point from the market being down again. we are in a very, very reactionary time of market. so we think the likelihood could be quite positive from our larger perspective. stocks are at higher levels, and the bull market continues, but

we think we'll see volatility first. >> stocks at rosh highs have nothing to do at all with the fact that inflation is coming down, right? and they need to get their rate, which is way too restrictive, they have admitted that themselves, back towards whatever normal is. it has nothing to do at all with where stocks are at the present time. >> remember, the storm is part of the leading indicators. the more that powell talks about the dual mandate, i more he will sounds more and more hawkish. i think people want the dove, and i think they won't get as dovish as we think. i think we'll see an over-reaction to the market. we would love to pounce on that.

>> i'm sorry to keep going at this, brian, but don't you think they have made the point at this stage of the game they're more concerned about the labor market. it feels like we're back to even here. >> i think that's true, but people are still spending money. i know we'll talk about target in a bit, but remember, a year ago the opposite was happening. bonds were selling off. yields were going higher. i'm not sure we'll get as clean of an inflation number an everything thinking again reactionary, and sell, because longer term we want people to be invested, scott, but we only buy stocks if they're going up type of market, and i think we'll get a better buying opportunity,

especially since everybody loves everything right now, believing this big rally. remember, it's august. we have lower trading volumes, a lot of volatility. we think there's a chance we get a better pullback. we think things have gotten ahead of themselves again. >> emily, what about you? >> i don't disagree with what everybody has said. we're looking at the periods of volatility to take advantage. we're also focused on international market. what i think is super interesting is your record valuations, error highs in the s&p, but the nikkei, some of the indices in europe, they haven't come back to the same sense since the all pullback. we're finding interesting opportunities in tech, in health care outside the u.s., and we encourage our investors to reallocate that outside the u.s. >> you think expectations are

too high going into powell's speech on friday at this point? >> you know, that's an interesting point. i think expectations are protowell calibrated. i would have thought going into today's fomc meeting minutes that, you know, there wouldn't be much surprise, but you see the market rally on the back of that i think the market is relatively well calibrated. i think it will matter -- employment figures, i think revisions show it, and so, i do think the fed might take a bit of a dovish tilt from here. obviously data dependent from the next few meetings. >> stef, you said yesterday you were nervous cutting in, not nervous coming out.

>> no. not that it was the greatest outlook in the world, but i guess a positive comp relative to expectations is good enough. >> for scherr. this company missed earnings four times, beat once, in line once. that's why i was nervous. it's been inconsistent, so rare from this management team. it took them a lot time to get out of the hole that put themselves in. they shall birds of covid, then people went into services, and they got hammered. that's why it's taken so long. this was a quarter that was very, very solid, and it showed that the product innovation and the pricing that they're taking is working. a comp the 2% driven by entirely 3% traffic is impressive. digit at 8 -- same-day services up double digits? that is remarkable. apparel up three, who thought

apparel was up anything at this point in time? food business actually was actually only up low single digits. i would have thought after wall matt, they would have done a better job. beauty up nine, which makes me question estee lauder, by the way, but the process and the changes and the strategy and vision has been spot on, it just took a long time to execute. operating margins up 6.4%, expectations were 5.5, so really remarkable productivity, costs and execution. so, yeah, i was nervous. i'm happy. we're going to talk about snowflake on that in a bit, too, but this is all about being long term and looking for opportunities. >> so, brian, can we -- let's say friday's job report started this whole market upset a few

weeks ago. can we take intense fears from the consumer off the table? now you get walmart, now you get target, you get tjx, some other in the mix as well. do we still need to leave it on the li of worries, or can we remove it? >> mostly we can remove it. number one, you never want to bet against the u.s. consumer. stephanie put it best with target. we sold the stock in the fourth quarter of 2021. operationally they were starting to roll over. i think the key thing is the operators versus the non-operators. we put all of our target into costco and others. look at macy's and other companies. i think the thing you want to start thinking about, scott, is shareholder advocacy in some of

these retailers not well managed, quite frankly, and i think that might be the next thing, but i think the consumer has always been super smart in how and where they buy. i think you can largely take a lot of that off the table. >> emily, do you agree with that comment? i feel like there's people still worried, and rightly so, about the consumer, because every consumer is not the same. the fact that walmart was decent may tell a more negatively skewed story just relative to what their consumer base is. >> you know, the way we've been reading it is this is actually further confirmation that the consumer is actually looking for value for their money. walmart, even target, that was driven by price ecreases. we think we're seeing a more value-focused consumer. that's one part of the consumer. the other inning, where we're focused is on the ultra-high end, ultra-luxury.

these are not the types of people worried about what's going to happen in the job market. we think they have tremendous run rate for growth, very strong brands and, you know, supply constraint to their products. >> scott, you know, toll brothers -- >> that's right, it was good. >> net signed contracts up 11%. first three weeks of august, very strong food traffic, coming on the heels of d.r. horton. >> and mortgage rates coming down, though it stalled a bit. >> that's okay, but there was demand there. when you add on the other companies, absolutely the consumer is just fine. brian is right. people want to talk about the death of the consumer. we are a nation of spenders, in the good times and bad times. you can see it clearly in these results. as commodity costs come down, the consumer will do a lot better. at the same time, the four-week

moving average is at 240,000. recession is at 350 to 375,000, we're certainly not at the lows, but certainly not the highs. in that case, i think the consumer will be just fine. >> in the areas outside of tech, industrials have done well, health care has done well, stapling have done well. real estate has done already. obviously a good pork of those have a more defensive bet. some would say, it's not so great that those have done well, but outside of tech, what do you like best? >> well, you know i love financials. financials are a great place with respect to yield coming forward. i think health care also from a growth perspective, we love certainly reits, especially on the apartment and industry sides. real quickly, on the consumer again, people fail to remember

as strategists, we have to back test sectors, and consumer discretionary always, ten out of ten, outperforms when gdp is slowing or going into recession, period. right now consumer staples actually are quite expensive. in that sector, you have target, costco and walmart. the majority of the performance in that sector comes from those areas. we would be buyers of more than value consumer staples, but be careful about anointing -- we wouldn't be buying them here. >> emily, you do like some consumer names. i find, though, that the majority of the ones you like are not in the united states. that plays with the theme you suggested earlier. >> absolutely. >> in the u.s. we have broad exposure to the consumer through mastercard. international travels, some

areas where we have continued to see strength, outside of the u.s., we think the focus is to be -- we want to look at companies that grow their earnings power through an earnings cycle. we have stayed away from the mass market luxury, even in the united states, some early data points that they just reported as well, but they're seeing weakness in the u.s., but health care, again, you know, the number of people obese will not change whether the economy is in a recession or growing at 3% or had%. we think there's a long run rate for growth there. and we really like, you know, other areas in healthcare, exposure to cataract surgery, for example, you know, i think a buying opportunity for this long-term winner. >> we'll get to tech, stef, in a

moment. outside of that space, what looks best to you? financials? >> housing. that's still my very favorite, anything tying to power and the grids and electrification, that's a decade-long thing. cyber. >> utilities up 10% in one month, so that's a performing group. >> but on the utim side of things. you could play it for the industrials or utilities. i prefer to play it for the industrials, as you know. so, i think anything also tied to aviation. we talk about boeing all the tie, but it's still in a duopoly with airbus, and the runway is very long given the 13,000 backlog of planes. so i think there's a lot of places. you talk about the broadening. there's so many themes to focus on, where there's a lot of opportunity, and yeah, i do like

financials. >> the russell is up 1%, it's outperforming. emily, is that a place to look if they think they're thing -- >> you know, i think that's fair. i think you want to be selective. yale, we've seen a bit of a pullback there. i agree with stephanie. aviation, industrials, utills here even in the united states, i think there's a long runway for growth. they're structurally advantaged markets. >> brian, how would you assess that in the here and now? >> as you know, we love this mid cap area. we think value as well. if you look at the 493 stocks in the vp s&p are outperforming for the first time in over two years. that's a really big deal. i think it speaks to the broadening out that frankly you

have to own a bit of everything. where the big alpha will come from is value and small mid cap. let's get to tech, the best for the last. we can talk snowflake, stef, if you want. you say you're nervous going in. i think there's legit questions about software in the here and now the software index is up 25%, nine times revenue, but this had for a long time traded to a premium in the last group. now it's all about product revenue growth. i think they'll do 26%, maybe they do a bit better than that, but of course, it will be for

the guide i'm not expecting much, but i think the expectations are so low, and i believe that you need scale in data for ai to work, and they have it. i'm nervous about it, because they haven't executed, but i do like the concept, and i like the new ceo. very smart. >> so everybody is looking forward to a week from today, august 28th, that's the day that nvidia is reporting earnings. how big of a moment you really think that is, given how quickly the market has rebounded. i'm looking at the stock, which obviously has had a remarkable move back. >> i think it's really big. you introducing me as prices to perfection. those earnings had better by clean and strong. especially considering how strong amd was.

amd is coming on, especially with the acquisition, but nvidia earnings better be strong. i think it's really, really hard to be overwas heading in, especially with how volatile -- we're still long-term holders, but we're watching it closely, and i think the earnings have to be perfect. >> we probably argue that broadcom is up near nvidia. >> should be, 100%, and it's not 100% ai. it's actually been the vmware acquisition, increasing their software exposure. that's recurring revenue with higher margins, but you also get the kick of ai. they think it would be a 30 to 50 billion business for them.

they report soon as well, so watching that one very, very closely. >> guys, we'll leave it there. thank you all. let's go to pippa stevens for the biggest names moving into the close. >> j.d.com is falling, according it had been the largest shareholder? jd.com with a 5.19% stake. reuters reports the sales were sold in a price range near 25.85 per share. and texas instruments is gaining ground, citi upgraded the stock, says it bottoms the margins have bottomed and a rebound could result in significant earnings growth, those shares up some 3%. pippa, thank you. we're just getting started, up next navigating the tech

trade. it looks like some up side would be on the haydn. at least that's what emj's eric jackson is betting on. he'll tell us the one name he sold, but is considering buying again. this just after the break. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot

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nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing. eric jackson is looking to buying a megacap name he sold just in july. welcome back. good to see you. you don't feel like being out of amazon that long, i guess. why? >> my favorite three, scott, in the mag 7 are apple going into

the iphone upgrade cycle, then meta. they're really the first poster child is somebody who is making money hand over fist, and then, of course, nvidia, the godfather. after that, it is amazon. i did sell out of it after july, but it's darn cheap, on a five-year basis, it's trading at all-time lows. nothing was really wrong with the quarter they just reported a couple weeks ago, so i think they are definitely one that's on my radar, and i plan on adding probably in a few week as we get closer to the next tech earnings season. >> we can't get to the next before we get out of this one. we still have to consider nvidia soon. how do you see that? >> it's the most important stock

in the world right now. if they laid an egg, it would be a major problem for the whole market. i i don't think they will. if you look at what wall street is countien on a go-forward basis, it's almost an explosion of ai revenue over what they have seen, it will sort of dry up. i don't think that's the case. eric shall mid gave a shot at stanford recently a few days ago, and they took it down off youtube, because he made some critical comments about the work culture at google, but one of his throw-away lines, talking to sam altman, they both believed that each of the hyper scalers and the openais of the world would probably have to spend $300 billion each over the next few years, so nvidia could basically only supply those

hyper scalers, and their order book will be full for the next four years. it's a massive amount of money sitting in front of them. god love the broadcoms and amds of the world, but the vast majority of that revenue will go to nvidia. >> obviously the money that nvidia makes is the money that the hyper scalers are spending, so at what point do you look and say it might be longer for the r.o.i. or return on invested capital this side of the story than i think we're willing to admit. how should we look at that. >> the meta is showing now that they are making a lot of money from this. masses why their stock is, you know, mid 500s right now. i'm starting to think that

zuckerberg was leading us on several years ago when he was saying he was spending all this money on reality labs, and people panicked, and sold the stock. i think he was trying to throw off competenttory by spending the money on gpus to get a head start. if you're sitting in the seat of andy jassy or microsoft or openai, will you let another competenttory just take the lead and become the dominant player in ai going forward? i just don't think you can do that. you're only spending a minority in some cases, or just, you know, certainly less than your free cash flow. you're not going to level it on the balance sheet, and leena kaun will not have anything to do with that. i think a lot of people look at

the investment in ai on, what's the return on investment on intel intelligence? they seen, a lot of them, as infinite. there will be shocking applications in the next few years. some already made the hair on the back of nigh stoke stand up, scott. they are here in some cases and will be coming shortly we're still less than two years away from chatgpt's new issue. >> there are a number of growthy stocks that did especially well in a zero interest rate universe, and struggled mightily when rates started to go higher. now that rates are expected to come down, is that the catalyst you see for both of these names? >> yeah, and for other what some would say trashy names. like, one man's trash is another man's treasure.

all these stocks, open doors of the world would be another one. they all self-emulated, but i think it's interesting, look at the last 90 minutes of the trading session. when the fed minutes came out today, what happened? all these stocks took off. lucid was up 10% at one point in the last hour. the mag 7 was not. they were having a good day, but i think it shows that a lot of these names first in the garbage dumpster when rates started rising, are going to react much more powerfully back to the up side when rates start to come down. you know, for upstart and affirm, they've been making money already, but they cut costs, now they'll have they massive macro tailwinds behind

them. a lot of people will use their services a lot more, so i like both. i see them both having a similar run we saw at the end of 2023. >> do see these rate cuts expecting to come between now and the end of the year? i think the market is expecting several, right? is that part of your reasoning why you think tech will still have a continued run here? >> i think so it's been a huge bounce back in two weeks. no one would have predicted that. so it's where the excitement is. the fact that rates will be coming down, that will put life into some of these smaller mid-cap tech names.

i think there will be a broadening out story and some excitement around some of these smaller names that suddenly get a big boost and people make some money from. we're just too tight. like, the fed has to cut. given where inflation is, they're too tight, so the cuts will come. >> we'll see you seen, e.j. >> thank. >> thank. up next, to remove boundaries... ( ♪♪ ) will may have a brokeout. that's up next. because this game is for everyone. so this is pickleball?

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our next guest says the trend is till your friend. joining us is chris ferrone. welcome back. >> great to be here. >> that's the crux of your argument, you're not that cautious, the charts look good to you? >> i think the trend is certainly -- certainly still intact. i thought from what was a modestly sold condition, but scott, i think the biggest question is, as statistic character of the leadership changed? or has the character of the mac roa driving the change changed? the leadership until today had largely been defensive as well. >> i brought that up earlier.

it's utilities. real estate, more defensive part. >> what do they all have in common? lower bond yields, particularly the biotechs. if you run sensitivity, what is the group that has the highest sensitivity? it's the small-cap biotech, but it's working well. it's not like they're going down. they're still going up in price, which is an important backdrop, but there's some level in yield, what is the message of the m macro? >> you say it's critical that the financials remain involved. >> they're essential to this market. if you go back to prior soft landings, what do they have in common? financials roared out of that. they have roared for the last 6,

7, 8 months. i think it's essential that here. >> do you think think it continues. do you feel and the choorts suggest that? >> i do you. i think what's drive the financials globally. they have worked well in japan. it's essential that it persist. my expectations is that it does. we certainly would have to adjust if it stopped. we're very much in the camp of evaluate the world you see today, play the trends that are backed, and adjust when things change. >> you think the market is expecting too much from powell at jackson hole? >> i'm worried the opposite. i'm worried that this powell fed doesn't recognize the

seriousness of this. i think it's a serious message. it's only happened four, five times in history. >> i think it's the largest in some, like, 20 years. >> since summer of 200707. when you hear '07, you think apocalyptic, but it also happened in '98. i would like fed to go 50. i don't know if we're going to get it our not. ultimately they'll have to. this is telling you where fed funds ultimately have to go. i think it's essentially -- >> you think they're too data dependent? >> i do some some respects last week it was retail sales or benign claims. i want to see the fed look at the bond market and see why are the 2s too typing, and i think the sooner they address that,

the better 25 can be. the longer we let this go, i get worried. why is oil breaking down? why are rates lower? why are some streaks of defensiveness starting to show up? that has to be monmonitored. >> you think powell needs to articulate that? >> i do. the two-year yield will tell you everything you need to know. >> and that's like the gundlach theory. >> the two-year was screaming on the way up, but they were late. we have the exact same setup on the other side. i think we ought to be careful. >> chris, good to see you. chris ferrone.

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pippa? >> american express is one of

the biggest performance in the dow, but today the biggest drag. it downgraded to neutral. and it's at a 60% premium to the credit card peers. capri holdings has a 8.5 bil billion deal. the shares are up 6.5%. >> pippa, thank you. still ahead, ford is switching up the big ev plans. that's just ahea d. were you worried the wedding would be too much? nahhhh... (inner monologue) another destination wedding?? we just got back from her sister's in napa. who gets married in napa? my daughter. who gets married someplace more expensive? my other daughter. cancun! jamaica!! why can't they use my backyard!!

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s

. coming up, zoom earnings, as we go indesi the market zone. we'll do that, next.

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we're in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli is here, plus phil lebeau, and indicate rogers, on what to expect from zoom when it reports in overtime today. mike, set the scene for us, what you learned today and what you think it means in the next couple days. >> you have three stocks up for every one in the exchange, and the overall market is holding this big rebound rally over two weeks, as we wait for powell. the conspicuous moves are outside of stocks, where everyone is getting doved up.

there's some retrospective elements to the minute also, where they characterize the conversation in a way, and it seems like if several participants would have been good with a rate cut in july, does that mean we're more restrictive than we were? not a critical moment just yet, but what's interesting, we're running the fed playbook, the cliche playbook, bid small caps, and make the thing happen again, even though we tried it before and it didn't work. it builds some suspense for exactly how powell's stance is going to come off relative to where the market has come to. >> phil, it seems like tomorrow's price action will be interesting, it feels like the dead zone before you get to powell. >> a dead zone in terms of no powell, but we'll heard from fed officials all day that are there. steve will have a bunch.

we'll have weekly claims, new inputs into the conversation. you know, i thought this for a while, which is a soft landing alternating periods of we got this and we lost it. that's kind of where we are. target is great, but a value-seeking consumer isn't knelt an all clear it's not a free fall, but definitely also not the verdict is in and the consumer is great. all right. phil, tell us about ford. >> ford is making a decision, because the ev market is just not develops as quickly as many expected, so it's going to be delaying and deferring some of is plans in terms of production. first, it will delay product at a tennessee ev plant that's being built. that will be pushed back another

year. they're scrapping a three row electric suv. they have three new models to roll on the in '26 and '27. ford is growing the ev sales, up 71%. the problem is they're still losing a boatload of money per vehicle. so they're saying, until we can make a profit within the first 12 months, we're not going to pursue that particular vehicle. by the way, as you look as shares of ford, this is a move that will cost them, a $400 million charge immediately, and then an increase in ev costs of $is.5 billion. scott, back to you. >> phil, i appreciate that. now to indicate rogers on what to expect from zoom. >> analysts looks for $1.21 adjusted eps. that would be a 9% decline in eps from a year ago.

also the first earnings contractions in six quarters. the stock is down 16% as demand has waned from the pandemic run-up. piper sandler i know earlier this month said that website traffic and app downloads are a slight beat. so we'll be looking out for any guidance. back over to you. mike, back to you. we had the sound effect of the two-minute warning. you talked about the magnet of 66,000, we're going to close above it. >> the nasdaq 100 gout -- the closes have been relatively strong. clearly, you know, there's a sense out there there's two-way risk, not just downside risk.

we're about 1% below the all-time highs. i keep running through the whole historical pattern of the average up year is up 20%. the s&p is up by 189 right now. it's not easy to get two back-to-back 20% years. it happens, and it has happened in the context of prior soft landings, so you don't want to lose sight of the overall trend, even though across the market activity is raising questions about whether we're pricing in too much resilience, or is there a runaway bit in treasuries that might not itself be based on true reality. >> your point about tomorrow is well taken, too. liesman has a number of important bur views, and really maybe the officials set the table for powell to serve up something big on friday. >> even though i was among those dismissing the payroll

revisions, this is old data and just bookkeeping, it clearly got in people's heads that at least this market was less structurally tight than we thought it was. [ bell ringing ] we'll see you tomorrow, and we'll send it to "overtime." that bell marks the end of regulation. advanced drainage systems ringing is the ball. the tennis association and the u.s. open doing the honors at the nasdaq. largely resuming their upward markets. the only s&p sector firmly in the red, energy about flat line as the fed signals a september cut. that's the scorecard on wall street, but "closing bell" "overtime" i'm jon fortt