and see on your screen so you can go back and search for it later. we'll talk about the the security concerns with that which it seems like there are many. it's thursday, august 22nd now, 2024. i think it's 75 days. i have to look. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky's off. it's just the two of us. >> it is 75. >> 75 days until the election day. >> we'll show you how it's done. respectfully. >> we'll talk politics. >> more fed. >> markets. >> you know, we're both

reasonable people. at times. >> what time is it? >> we're both in the world of covering business. we're both, i think, hold business accountable, but i admire the greatest economy in the world and the companies that make up that great economy. i think you do, too. >> i do. >> there are dfshtifferent view how things go on. >> there are. >> mine is right. >> let's talk about the markets and talk fed action because we have steve liesman out at jackson hole. dow jones would open up higher 30 points higher. nasdaq higher by 6.5 points. the s&p 500 looking up by 1.5. let's show you the ten-year treasury. t two-year. ten year at 3.16.

>> good day to have tom leo. i saw him. he's here. because we had that scare. we came all the way back. now the last couple sessions, eh. up a little. 20, 30, 40 points. i don't know if we're slowing. we hhave jackson hole and the fd with the weird revision yesterday which i thought would be actually friendly because it means the angst about the job market overheated, you can lay that to rest and get your .25 or .50. i didn't think that was a big negative. there are certain sectors of social media that think the numbers have been cooked all along. they have been trying to say it. 170 or 180 with inflation. that's okay. that's pretty good, right? have you been thinking about these things? >> i have been thinking about it. i was just thinking about what

you said to me. you looked at me and said i'm usually right. i was thinking -- >> right. >> -- i was thinking of a great quote that warren buffett used to say charlie munger when they would disagree about things. >> they did a lot. they were both right. >> munger would say, warren, think it over annd you'll agree with me because you're smart and i'm right. >> i'm hoping for that with you. >> i was -- >> i thought you were -- >> i was saying that. you're smart and i'm right. if you think it over -- i'm compc complimenting you saying your smart. >> it's a very close election. we know that. >> that is true. >> we just have to remember that just because you might have a different viewpoint doesn't mean you're just a horrible person.

it's such a close election that we just -- the people on one side have their reasons for supporting their candidate. the people on other side have their reasons for supporting their candidate. >> it's a test. >> yeah. i think it's possible to have this core, i don't know, viewpoint of how the world works. you know how -- i'm not telling you anything you don't know about how i think. the minutes from the most recent fed meeting show officials overwhelmingly want to cut interest rates at the september meeting. as we, i think, had intimated or suspected, there were quite a few that wanted to cut in july, but it didn't happen. most said more information was needed before it was appropriate to lower rates. it looked like they dodged a bullet. the vix up to 50. bond yields plummeted. now that growth scare seems like it's in the rear-view mirror and really was probably unwarranted.

a lot of the investment banks that raised the recession probability took it back down. we will hear from the kansas city fed president in the next hour. i don't know whether we've interviewed president schmid at this point. it will happen today. the federal reserve kicks off the jackson hole symposium. summer in the west. not much like that, as you know. it's dry. it's not that hot. you got this beautiful secene al around and you have to ruin it talking about monetary policy. >> this is still you. >> i'm allowed to wait for reaction. >> for reaction? >> yeah. get the reaction shot. no, you don't. that's okay. it's better than be being totally alone. in the meanmeantime, data

revisions show employers might have added 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through march than previously believed. there was significant drama over the release of the data yesterday which was due at 10:00 a.m. it was weird. becky was here talking about it all morning. waiting for it. it was a half hour late. you know, you've had all these ann months to cook the books. 10:00 a.m. >> no explanation. >> lawythree banks called the department and got the numbers directly while the rest of the street waited. others received the number over the fun before released at 10:30 a.m. this is the latest shflub.

the bureau said it is looking into the error. it did nothing to help or hurt the stocks. didn't do much for the bond market, i don't think. >> did not at all. meantime, a fascinating story in the house of the mouse. the magic house. disney tapping former morgan stanley james gorman to lead a committee searching for successor of yobob iger. he plans to step down and executive chair of morgan stanley in december. iger returned, of course, as the disney ceo in 2022 for a period of two years and the company extended his contract. the stock has been volatile down 1% as the company navigated the activist battle and the strikes in hollywood and the box office slump. mark parker serves on the succession committee along with mary barra and lululemon calvin

mcdonald. it is weird to see this out in the open. you don't normally talk succession openly or rarely talk who is on the succession committee. having said all that, james gorman had one of the great successions himself at morgan stanley. his succession. we will see, of course, whether his successor at morgan stanley, who he handed it off to, is successful. by all accounts, it seems to be a success. >> boardroom, i was face nscina by the level of disney stock versus netflix in the last couple days. we can look at a three-year chart. >> yup. >> i don't know if you remember -- i don't know if you remember, at 180 when netflix fell, i'm telling you, if we --

we're not allowed to buy stocks. if i can, i would leverage everything i own to buy netflix. >> you used to be a naysayer of netflix. >> i'm slow to make the move. >> when you make it, you make it. >> i still have trouble navigating good things to find on netflix. i understand that's the future and linear tv, you will not wait around for 8:00 to watch "seinfeld." one's up 40% and one's down 40%. disney, for a while, we thought deserved to be $300 a share because of disney plus. they're in streaming and they have the diversification with the theme parks. sometimes everything goes bad at

the same time. linear tv. i guess think made a profit. >> disney plus. will it ever turn and become a global business the way netflix is right now? this goes back to the idea that -- i think it is possible there's only one or would players that completely win at this game of streaming. then the question is how do you think of the lineal channels and then are you putting a terminal rate of zero on those channels? that's crazy. how much value do you put on the theme parks? i would put a lot of value on the theme parks. we know china is a challenge. >> china. you have to say it right. china. like trump. >> i wouldn't write it off. >> nope. you go all the way back to -- what was the original -- what was mickey called? look how old disney is. netflix used to send you dvds in

the mail.nowhere. $300 billion. it is weird how things can flip. disney was in the cat-bird seat. amazing. >> we can do a chart of walt disney and show warner bros. discovery. >> not much different. it's good they have the other assets. >> i'm saying you would look at that and you would say that that's an issue, right? >> you would. >> you can do this against paramount. that's a real issue. >> they're stuck. >> bring in the parent company. all i'm saying is to look at disney and say somehow disney has been, you know, hardly managed. >> i'm not saying it is bad managed or go woke or go broke. i'm not saying any of that. >> you just did. >> no, i didn't. you can come out of nowhere with the new technology and completely displace what should

have been -- i mean, i want to put my money on disney ten years ago versus some dvd company. >> it was new technology and capital. the market -- it was the market that allowed netflix to run at a loss for a long time as well. sort of amazon-like, remember? >> right. >> and say you can go spend money wildly, which it seemed like they were doing, until they were able to get enough of a programming slate. that's what they did. >> think about it. you had hbo. you had a lot of legacy players that were there. okay, it's not just "snow white" and the seven magical creatures that caused this to happen? >> that's what i'm saying. >> dwarfs. >> that's a big story and that saga continues. in the meantime, minnesota governor tim walz accepting the nomination for the vice president at the dnc in chicago.

megan cassella is there and joins us with the highlights. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, andrew, from chicago. we made it to thursday where folks are getting ready for night four. the final night. night three last night is still wrapping up. it was focused on the themes of protecting freedoms and taking on trump and again on the politics of joy. there were a number of celebrities here. oprah winfrey. john legend performed. mindy kaling was here. as you mentioned, the headliner for the night was governor tim w walz. this was his chance to accept the nomination as introduce himself to the campaign and ticket just about two weeks ago. this was a very short speech by historical standards. 15 minutes. the shortest vp acceptance speech going back to 1984. he used this as a biographical

speech. he came out to the john mellencamp song "small town." he worked about being a good neighbor. he spoke about family. there was an emotional moment where his kids had tears streaming down his face and his son gus stood up and said that's my dad. emotional for the family and party as they accepted their new vp nominee. walz repreprised his role as atk dog. >> here's the thing. it's an agenda that nobody asked for. it's an agenda that serves nobody except the richest and most extreme amongst us. it's an agenda that does nothing for our neighbors in need.

>> reporter: walz weptnt on to y he had not given a lot of big speeches. he went on to say this. >> it's the fourth quarter, we're down a field goal, but we're on offense and we've got the ball. we've driving down the field and, boy, do we have the right team. kamala harris is tough, kamala harris is experienced and kamala harris is ready. >> reporter: now walz did not give us much by way of policy or substantive details there. he talked about cutting middle class taxes and big pharma. trump's campaign said walz spent no time on substance. guys, that does indicate where things are headed in the campaign. democrats have had all of the momentum since president biden withdrew. there is one more night here

when harris accepts her nomination and gives big speech. they said harris will sit for the media which is the hard part still to come. guys >> megan, i appreciate it. what a night. coming up, fundstrat's tom lee will be here to talk about the jackson hole symposium. that's next. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where meaningful relationships matter most.

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we said earlier it would be a good day for tom lee to join us. >> he's here now. >> managing head reach at f fundstrat. a month ago, did you ever waiver? did you have any nights where you didn't sleep as well? >> there were three days of horror, as the market posted fmoc to tokyo black monday was gut-wr gut-wrenching. >> was it? >> yes. we viewed this as a growth scare because we didn't think the u.s. was entering recession after the jobs report and the risk with

the yen. markets showed a lot of resilience since then. the fact we snapped back so sharply is showing you how strong the market is. >> still. >> yes. >> the revisions yesterday not on your radar? should they be on investors' radar screen? i thought it might be a good thing if the job market was not as hot as people thought. >> yes, i think it is incrementally important because the fmoc minutes that came out yesterday showed the fed saying this is a strong labor market. the jobs report that came out friday and revisions showed a lot of jobs disappeared. it is not as strong a market. it gives more ammunition for the fed to start a cutting cycle. that's going to give a lot of life to the economy. >> and to the markets. >> and to the markets. especially cyclical stocks and small-cap stocks. >> tech's already done well. normally, you think multiples don't need to stay where they are or contract with the high

multiple tech stock. it could at least feel better about the valuations if the rates came down. >> that's right. i think tech is still in a good place with a.i. and nvidia should reinforce that. it is not a demanding multiple. 28 times forward earnings. it is not a high multiple. if tech is in a good place and then we get fed cuts, i think it allows the overall market to expand. >> do we see an orderly easing cycle because the fed doesn't feel like it needs to act intin inin intra or have a meeting go extra or do 25 or 25 or 50? do you think it will be like that? >> i think -- i think the soft landing probabilities are going up. that's why this should be a benign cutting cycle. good for markets.

i think the key is the fed getting off data dependence. data dependence is the reason they missed the inflation turn and i think now they're missing the soft landing turn. >> is it possible that they're too restrictive right now and the lag -- we don't know how powerful the lag effect of the higher rates could be and they end up doing 50 or a couple of 50s, is that possible? >> i think -- i think -- i think futures markets are showing more than two cuts. i think the fed is probably behind the curve and we know there is a recession in housing and durables and auto sales. there's a lot of pain out there. cutting more aggressively would actually make sense. at least from the market perspective. >> you're a market guy. where do you think unemployment tops out? do we go over 5% unemployment? >> you know, a lot of it has to do with how the fed communicates

to ceos. a lot of companies are cautious, right, with monetary policy this tight and real rates this tight, it makes them reluctant to expand. the job market itself hinges on what the fed is doing. once the job market sees unemployment rise, it could get bad. >> gold has been hitting new highs, obviously. i think we showed a chart the other day. kelly was trying to tell me she was right. >> about the disconnect? >> no, about gold. we looked at it over the last five years. gold was up 90% and bitcoin was up $13,000. >> okay. >> that was what we looked at. gold is moving and it's moving not in a correlated fashion with risk on. bitcoin definitely looks like. >> does that ever switch? >> i think -- i think it can. bitcoin is just sort of got two

functions. it is a risk-on asset, but it is an important protection against systematic risk. >> do you want it to be correlated to gold? >> i think bitcoin is digital gold. i think it's replacing dpold o gold over time. >> it should act as gold. it shouldn't have the meteoric rise? >> it could dollar debase. the fact that gold is rising shows there is a lot of fear out there. i think gold is a measure of the bearish sentiment. that's why stock -- >> can we talk politics for a second. do you have an election prediction and as it relates to the market? do you think the market -- do you think anything we're seeing in the markets has anything to do with what's going to happen in november? >> yes, to an extent. i think the markets are

believing trump's probability of winning are stronger than the polls are showing. when the market is convinced of that, you will see cyclical stocks do better and small caps and bitcoin because these are clear policy differences. to me, over the last couple days, to me, the market seems like it is betting on trump odds better in the polls. >> tom, thank you. >> thank you. >> sometimes you come on later. later in the day. i think it is better first thing. >> first thing. also, he gets it out of his way. he has the whole day. by the way, his smart comments get repeated all day on air. >> right. if you go on later, i would say maybe 7:00 or 8:00. anything over 9:00, it doesn't make sense. >> it makes sense.

i hear you. coming up after this, we will talk about microsoft. it is testing a new controversial a.i. feature that sparked warnings. we will bring the details and why you may want to be anxious about it. and later, former congress member mike gallagher has a new gig. he is head of defense at wl in.r heiljo us. so much to discuss with him. we're coming right back on "squawk." the need to screen when due... for colon cancer's a priority. indeed! everyone 45+ at average risk should screen for colon cancer. these folks are getting it done at home with me, cologuard. cologuard is a one-of-a-kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45+ at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. i did it my way.

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and 5g solutions from t-mobile for business. t-mobile connects 100,000 delta airlines employees. powers tractor supply stores nationwide with reliable 5g business internet. and helps red bull revolutionize coverage of live events. this is how business goes further with t-mobile for business. welcome back to "squawk box." microsoft saying it will release the controversial recall a.i. feature for the windows beta testers in october. that uses an a.i. model to take

screen shots of everything you do or see on your computer screen and gives you the ability to search for information earlier. it guives you a timeline of everything for work during the day. the risks of capturing images which could be used by hackers to open taken personal information by users. microsoft said it was delaying the launch and recall would be turned off by default and you have to opt in. how many times, joe, you have seen something on a web site or some app or something else and a day late anla day later and you need to find it and can't find t. iit. i do a lot of writing. i write it in word or the app, the notes app.

for those of us, who can't always remember everything at the tip of our tongue. >> it happens. it has been happening to me when i read all these newspapers and i remember and something sticks in my mind and i want to bring up. >> right. think if you were trying to make a debate point with me and in the moment, you could type in -- >> i'm looking at physical papers. that's never going to work for me because i still use the physical papers instead of online. >> you eventually will. >> how many times have you been looking at something than an ad comes up or talking about something and -- it's weird. this is great. >> that's a different issue. >> is that a coincidence? >> we discussed this before. >> tell me. i'm worried they're always listening. >> they are always listening.

they are not listening by audio. what i think is happening, if you want to know, what is happening because you are attached to facebook, although you think you are not attached through facebook or whatsapp or instagram. >> nope. i'm not on facebook. >> two people are near each other and they both know the phones are near each other. you say something and i'll search for it, by the way, and it will show up on your thing. >> i don't understand. >> it's an the lot of that connection. where i was going to go with this on the microsoft thing. although you use your papers, in the future, we're all going to wear the meta glasses or snap glasses or somebody's dpglasses. >> you sure? >> that will remember everything that you've seen. >> i don't want to wear glasses. >> you're wearing contacts now? >> i am. i can wear contacts? now we're getting into the

matrix. >> digital. >> you weren't here for the orb story. iris. the front page. >> sam altman. >> to make sure the person you are talking to is not a robot. >> and if they have all of the copies of everybody's iris, who knows? >> every person on the planet. think about that. coming up, gambling just got easier for bet mgm for customers inside and outside of nevada. contessa brewer has the details next. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen

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welcome back to "squawk box." a big announcement from mgm resorts. the first nevada firm to launch a single wallet on the mgm platform. we have contessa brewer here with more to tell us about the platform. >> reporter: it makes it easier for customers to play. bet mgm single wallet is a big

idea. the online platform won approval from regulators. someone who uses bet mgm, say in new jersey, can go to nevada and gamble. the winnings then stay in their wallet online. again, a big win. nevada was the last holdout for bet mgm. regulators are tough. with the new permissions, the customers without a nevada account have to sign up in person in nevada or, if they already registered in nevada, they can update the app. this is a competitive advantage. the biggest strip operators consider their rewards program to be crucial to their success and regional casinos and online operations. caesars doesn't have an online

wallet. they will promote one for the nfl kickoff and hoping to complete that new year's. the online leaders, fan duel and draft kings, don't operate in nevada, but have a wallet. nevada is a huge market and that's where the rewards happen with the build up of mgm rewards in other states, they want to use them where? re regional casinos? maybe, but nefvada is the big draw, joe. >> it sounds like it applies to the, not hard core, it does nothing for me. i hope i don't stand planning trips to nevada every year to satisfy my gambling. i'm fine. >> reporter: whatever platform you're using to gamble, imagine

you go to nevada and now you have to set up a separate account. you actually have to fund before you -- >> the casino? i docn't want to go in there. the casino and blackjack and stuff like that? no, no, no. >> is that dangerous for you? >> yeah. don't they have places where you can get more money? >> yeah. >> i've done that before six times the same day. that was 40 years ago. i don't want to do things, i don't think. >> you can sign up for self exclusion so they won't let you do that. >> self exclusion. >> responsible gambling. >> that's responsible. made a big bet last night. $5. i did win. i won on the yankees. thank you, contessa brewer. >> sure. >> yankees won 8-1. >> yes. >> i had three guys getting

hits. soto. i had the over at 8.5. >> what did you bet on the dnc last night? did you bet that oprah was going to be there? >> i bet if i were to watch it, i would be overcome with a lot of cringe. >> a lot of other people there were overcome with a lot of joy. >> joy will work. the dnc wrapping up with the speech from vice president kamala harris. we will talk to her former economic adviser about taxes and price gouging and so many other things. as we head to break, check out where currencies stand right we u ll wh y? >>eryofieditjo >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers.

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a key topic in vice president kamala harris' economic agenda is drawing criticism on both sides of the aisle. criticism of alleged price gouging at grocery stores. joining us is mike pyle. he is now advising her campaign. have you been on board with the way some of these economic initiatives have been rolled out, mike, or would you have done it differently? >> let's be clear what this proposal is and isn't. what it isn't is price controls pure and simple. this is not intervening in the price setting mechanisms in our economy. what it is is being sure that there's a cop on the beat in emergency situations making sure that there aren't bad actors out there taking advantage of the american consumer. this is the authority we see in

40 different states. red states and blue states alike. it is focused on making sure in emergencies, there is a cop on the beat. >> just because you sort of have to explain what it isn't after the rollout, i think, is i illstrative that it wasn't the greatest first initiative to make. i think typically grocery chains have about a 1% or 2% margin. when there is price gouging in a normal system, there are anti-trust laws and anti-monopoly laws. it can't be done. what it looks like, mike, is that the administration was well aware it was under water on bidenomics on the inflation. it looks like a way to deflect blame. maybe it was just the pandemic. even if it wasn't bidenomics, it happened globally. they point out it happened

globally. why blame it on u.s. companies that were gouging? it's not our fault. that's part of a common theme. anti-corporate theme from the biden administration. why? >> if you look at the vice president's speech on friday, you will see a lot of the ways in which we need to create a very stable, secure environment for business to operate in this country. it talks about cutting through unnecessary red tape. talks about creating certainty for businesses big and small to do what they do best which is innovate and create jobs. at the same time, prices are front of mind for the american people. when that is the cost of housing or the prescription drugs or groceries. this is front of mind topic. she wants people to know there is a cop on the beat not taking advantage of them. >> the other thing that is inn c

incongruous is how much better the united states did emerging from the pandemic. you know, we created 15 million jobs. we did this. we did that. none of that was we the government. most of that was the economy we have in the united states made up of all these great companies. on the one hand, you're saying we did better than anywhere else because we have these great companies. hiring all these people. they are doing all these great things. so we're going to raise taxes from 21% to 28%. why? >> so, you know, if you look at where we are, we need to be in a place where we're asking the wealthiest and biggest businesses to pay their fair share. >> wealthiest businesses? >> for a couple of reasons. the vice president talked about the need to build more housing and invest in building more housing in this country. talked about the way in which we need to make sure that families with the smallest children have

the support they need like the child tax credit. we alwso need to reduce the deficit. it will require more taxes to do that. >> do you think the performance of business, which is lauded by the administration, because of how well the economy is doing -- you don't think that's going to be affected by -- and then the other thing i was thinking, we subsidize in the i.r.a. all of the businesses. in the chips act. we're giving them money on one hand and on the other hand, we're raising taxes. it seems like a strange way to d do things. >> i think american has had a long way of doing business and we lead the world in innovation and technology and basic corporate capacity. you know, we've also for a long time had a corporate tax rate of 35%. >> i know. good things happened at 21.

a lot of companies said they would not have done it. >> did things can happen at 28, too. >> my question is slightly different. the second any of the candidates puts up a policy, they get critiqued. we talked a long time about the bigger you are, the betterright? we talked for a long time about -- >> talk tariffs. >> nobody can then start, you know, trying to find holes in the plan. what i was actually asking on the corporate tax front is, yes, democrats have been calling for 28% for a long time. was there any thought about saying, you know, what actually, in terms of showing our hand about how we actually feel about business, one way or the other, because one of the things that is happening privately is a lot of people around harris are saying we're very good for business, going at a 25% rate and the reason i mention 25%, that was the rate that most ceos thought they were going to get actually under trump. >> why raise it at all, though

>> and then trump put it down to 21%. if you were going to sort of try to say to the business community, look, we're for you, we favor what you want, because once you get, by the way, once you get over 25%, and the reason why that 25% was sort of a hurdle was then you get into this conversation about where do you actually want to be if you're a company, meaning we talked about -- remember corporate inversion and the like. >> i don't know if that's the cutoff. 7% of total revenue is corporate taxation and you're going to raise it. it is not even doing anything. why not talk entitlements? why not talk social security, medicare? >> you know what it is, carried interest. >> that's weird, because you had -- >> as it should be. >> we had a chance to do that before and -- >> yes. >> a democrat killed the -- i don't know -- was she a democrat at the end, i don't know, sinema, remember? >> oh. >> let's talk one more tax policy, if we look at the former president's platform, there is a

proposal in there to, you know, raise taxes across the board on basically everything that we work from overseas. >> you mean tariffs? >> national sales tax on everyday goods, fuel, food, diapers, these are things that american consumers, households are going to have to pay more for. >> i think there is an article today about how both sides have these populist policies that are basically regressive and not taking us where we want to go. strange political environment. you miss it much? >> i'm very happy to be right here. >> you mean on "squawk box"? >> i'm thrilled to be on "squawk box" and thrilled to be in new york city. >> do people ever call you private paul? >> you have done that. >> so people do? >> people do. the last time, in fact, i heard -- >> some people. >> it is such an advantage to be a boomer, i'm telling you. it is just -- you see generation x, they got no money to retire

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welcome back to "squawk box." shares of bavarian nordic are soaring, the danish company that makes the only vaccine for mpox approved by both u.s. and european regulators. the company reported stronger than expected earn aengz announced a large order, 440,000

doses of mpox vaccine. the company saying it will meet the top end of its full year guidance. worrisome, by the way, for the world, not worrisome for the company. >> right. i know what you meant by that. you would like to know, obviously. >> i would like to know and i would like to not go there. that's pretty much where i'm at. and i hope those people who may be needing that vaccine -- >> at this point, it's -- well, at the worst, the most virulent is only 1% mortality probably. you don't want pox. >> i don't want any pox. micong up, federal judge has blocked the ftc's ban on noncompete agreements. we're going to see how this is going to impact workers. we'll break it all down right after this.

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it's -- it is 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe kernen, along with andrew ross sorkin. becky is off today. and among the top stories that we're watching, disney, you know this guy, board member and morgan stanley chairman james gorman is being tapped to lead the search for a new ceo, the search for a new ceo. canada's two main railroads have shut down operations after failing to avert a strike by about 9,000 union workers. canadian national and canadian pacific kansas city blocking out employees after a deadline passed earlier this morning. paramount global is extending its go shop period that agreed to -- that it agreed to with its

more than $8 billion merger agreement with skydance, extending it by 15 days as it is reviewing a competing offer from edgar bronfman jr., which he has now upped to $6 billion, because it looked like it was just kind of the same, wasn't it? got to go up. >> they were different bids. now the question is where this all goes and does the ellisons come back with a new bid. is this turning into a tender? >> who is bronfman? >> he's got a whole bunch of -- >> who is the biggest one? >> it is a large group of lots of folks. most of them to be honest, most people don't know. we can go through that list in a little bit. futures 35 points higher on the dow if we opened up now. nasdaq up, looking at that up about 50 points. 52 points. s&p up about 8 points. want to get over to frank holland with a look at this morning's premarket movers. frank? >> good morning, andrew and joe. we start off with bank of america, out with a rare double upgrade on its rating of unilever.

shares are up just over 2%. they now moved this to a buy. analysts say the separation of the companies ice cream unit will be beneficial for growth, management focus and for valuation. but analysts added there are two big potential trouble spots. growing competition in emerging markets and a weakening consumer in developed markets. shares of unilever up 2% right now. we're also looking at earnings mover, snowflake, we'll start there, you can see, down big this morning. down almost 9.5%, even as the data software company reported better than expected earnings and raised its guidance, however, analysts say investors may be focusing in on the potential for a deceleration in the second half of the year, that was implied by the guidance. also, snowflake's ceo spoke with jim cramer on "mad money" last night and said the company has not seen a negative impact on business from a cyberattack earlier this year. shares down almost 9.5%, year to date down over 38%. earnings mover, urban outfitters, shares down over 10%

now, despite the retailer reporting higher second quarter profit. revenue came in just above estimates. same store sales, that missed, that metric dropping more than 9% at the urban outfitter stores themselves. some declines were somewhat offset by improvements at other brands including 7% increases at anthropology and free people. shares of urban outfitters down actually nearly 11%. andrew, back over to you. >> thank you, frank. meantime, a big story today, federal judge striking down the ftc's regulation on noncompete agreements that was set to go into effect in early september. joining us right now to talk about the impact on the ruling on this situation is joanne lipman, yale university lecturer and cnbc contributor. good morning. expected, not expected in your mind? >> not at all unexpected i would say, andrew. i think what's interesting here is how we're seeing how it is going to play out, assuming that this ruling stands. if you look at who is going to

be impacted versus who is not going to be impacted. and the people who actually will be impacted the most it appears would be those who are in low income jobs, lower income jobs, hourly wage jobs. the people at the very, very highest end of the spectrum, they're really not going to be impacted by this probably at all, because there was already a carveout with that ftc ruling that they were allowed to have noncompetes for that group of people. so, it is really interesting. the younger people are the lower income people increasingly this is what has been interesting, this is probably one of the things that was an impetus for the ftc, there has been this expansion, sort of a noncompete creep, where you see more lower income people, even hourly people, people who work in fast food or hairdressers, people who work in retail stores, who have increasingly been subject to noncompete agreements. and, you know, the ftc has

suggested that something like 30 million american workers, that's one in five american workers, has now been subject to these noncompete clauses. and there is other research, economic research, that shows you that something like 12% of workers who make less than $20,000 a year have been subject to these noncompetes. 15% of people who don't even have college degrees subject to these noncompetes. >> so, joanne, what comes next? i think the larger question is, i think it is raised to some degree by the judge. should this be something the ftc is doing unilaterally, if you will, obviously the judge disagrees with and thinks is not constitutional, or is this something that congress and the senate need to be writing laws about? >> all right, so i'm not a lawyer, so i'm not going to make any suggestions along those lines, but i would say that there is already a lot of state legislation that applies to noncompete agreements.

there is several states including california where home of silicon valley where noncompete agreements are already banned. and that doesn't impact the ftc. i know the argument was that this was overreach by the ftc, but, you know, there is a lot of state law that is already around this. and also -- >> the question is, should this be a federal issue? that's the fundamental question here. is it a federal issue, should it be up to the states, states can write their own laws, but federal government can't just write its own law unless the -- everybody writes the law as opposed to an agency determining the law, right? that's what the judge effectively is saying? >> yeah, it is a really good question and one that could ult ultimately be answered by the supreme court. this could go all the way up. i think another interesting question is -- >> joanne, if it goes all the way up, i think we know where it ends. there will not be a ban on noncom noncompetes on a federal level, no? >> i think the question becomes

if you can't have it on the federal level, will there then be challenges at the state level? because there are increasing numbers of crackdowns among the states. there were three that banned it all together, but there is another half dozen or so that have been increasingly, you know, putting in restrictions on noncompetes. >> let me ask you a semipolitical question. what do you think this says about the ftc and what does this say about the biden administration's approach to governing, if you will? >> well, look, i think that the ftc ruling was very, very much in keeping with everything else we have seen from the biden administration in terms -- in terms of how it is approaching business. it is very much in keeping, i don't think there is any surprise there. i also don't think there is any surprise in a texas judge banning it, you know, making that ruling. so, i don't think we see any surprises there. i think, you know, the question will be what is the world going to look like in the next

administration and who will take the rin reins there, there is t competing views of where the federal government stands with these noncompetes. but i do want to make the point, andrew, that for higher income people, for people who are already in leadership, none of this really makes a difference because in the ftc ruling, if it were to stand, the ftc, i think very few people were focused on this, it actually had a carveout. it had a carveout for top executives who have policy-making decisions and only had to make 151,000 or so or month. so, there were a lot of people who already, you know, with still -- were carved out, were still subject to noncompetes, and, again, you have all these state laws where, you know, they also were also legislating what you could do in a noncompete. >> joanne, it is a longer conversation and a debate i imagine has been going on for a very long time. i'm sure we'll talk about it

again. thank you. >> sure, thanks. coming up, jackson hole, a big focus for investors as we get ready for comments from jay powell tomorrow. we're going to talk markets after the break. and before the fed chairman speaks, we're going to hear from kansas city fed president jeff schmid in a couple of minutes. "squawk box" will be right back. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

pete g. writes, “my tween wants a new phone." and stay on top of the market. "how do i not break the bank?" we gotcha, pete. xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig. so you get high speeds for low prices. better than getting low speeds for high prices. -right, bruce? jealous? yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. get a free unlimited line for a year when you add one unlimited line. plus, get a new google pixel 9 on us. bring on the good stuff. it is every year, the fed symposium in jackson hole, always a big focus for investors. let's bring in sebastian page, head of global multiasset and chief investment officer of t. rowe price where he oversees over $500 billion in assets for

the firm. thank you for being with us. has your view changed at all with what we have seen the past six months as we have -- we all talk about what happened a month ago, the whole soft landing narrative was a little bit less certain, i think. now we're back. the fed gets an "a" for how it handled this? >> hasn't changed much. i don't think we're getting a recession over the next 12 months. i think for jackson hole, powell is going to want to be boring, he does not want to rock the boat here. the markets are on a knife's edge with every data point and you saw what happened with the bank of japan. mini earthquake. so, that's what powell wants to avoid. one thing he said at the last press conference got my attention, and it speaks to how the market is behaving right now. he went out of his way to say,

we're data dependent, but we're not data point dependent. and so i think as investors we have to move away from just being on this knife's edge where every single data point moves markets. it is not really healthy, especially with valuations that high. >> so, we -- at one point the market thought we would get, i don't know, almost 200 basis points probably. then we got down to maybe 50, 75. where are we right now and what is the right level? >> so we're down to three cuts before the end of the year, 75 basis points, that's roughly what is priced in. >> will that continue next year? how many next year? >> it probably continues. this is important. it is a potential regime shift for investors. we're getting into a fed-cutting cycle. what does it mean historically for markets. i just ran a study of 12 cutting cycles spanning 70 years. now, i have to say, this environment is a little bit different, because usually the fed cuts when things get bad and worse than they are right now.

the fed wants to cut right now, just because real rates, you know, the rate after the inflation is getting high, but, again, we don't see a recession. all that being said, you know, 12 fed cutting cycles, bonds outperform cash 12 out of 12 by an arverage of 8%. one thing we're looking at is investors, all this cash on the sidelines, is it time to start moving some of it into a diversified bond portfolio? >> really? and what would that look like in terms of duration? what would be the best place to be, do you think, everywhere? >> right now we're short duration, but i think a diversified bond portfolio, we're looking to reduce debt underweight duration, so i tell you how we're positioned right now and what we're looking at. we're positioned with a cash offer and some credit because we don't expect a recession. where we're potentially moving, especially if rates come back up, maybe a last hurrah, that

would be a good point, a good entry point if you want to be tactical to diversify the portfolio, extended duration, go closer to a broadly diversified bar barclays aggregate. bonds, as you've seen over the last few weeks have started to diversify stocks again. and i've done a lot of work on the stock-bond correlation, it is a wonky thing, right. but as markets start to worry less about inflation, and more about growth scares, and the risk of a recession, whatever the probability is, maybe 20%, 25%, as markets focus on growth risk, bonds can diversify again. >> you said in previous cycles we have seen, bonds outperform cash by 8%. >> by a lot, yeah. >> how much do stocks outperform cash or bonds? >> yeah, so, that's a great

question. the fed usually starts cutting when things are pretty bad for the economy. so the equity risk premium, the amount by which stocks beat bonds is quite compressed. it is down to 2.2% historically across the 12 cutting cycles. but i would differentiate this upcoming cutting cycle in that it is just not really a growth scare. we're on a knife's edge and things could change. but this is not as bad a situation. and i don't expect a recession. so, ultimately this is a bit boring, but we're at neutral, fully invested between your stocks and your bonds, stay close to your long-term risk tolerance. that's how i think you play this market. we are long the broadening, though, joe. this level of concentration, if i look out 12 months, it is bound to broaden. value stocks have quietly outperformed growth stocks by 8% since july 10th. >> doesn't sound like you would be an 80/20. you would favor bonds equal to

stocks? you don't like cash, but so higher percentage of bonds than normally? >> i think -- >> i think as we get into that -- >> get into it go ten year and stocks and bonds? >> and there is two ways to take some of that cash and move it to diversified bonds as we get into this cutting cycle. one is to say i'm only going to be tactical, i'm going to phase in a little bit of cash into diversified bonds as we go along, it won't be as sensitive to the entry point. the other one is to be a bit more tactical, the ten-year has been on the range, the election is coming, we could get a commodity shock with geopolitics, maybe the ten-year goes back up and that's a good entry point. if you want to play it more tactically. >> great. you want to ask him is the market saying anything about who is going to win? >> we have been asking that question, it is a worthy one. is the market saying anything about who is going to win in november? >> i think there is so many factors driving markets, i mean, you hear things about positioning, the yen carried trade, you hear things about,

yes, the trump trade, but i don't think the market really has made up its mind about what the trump trade might be. the policies are still unclear, sometimes they look close to each other, sometimes they don't. i talk to our washington analysts yesterday, and i said, you know, tell me how you price in a democrat versus -- >> say you were asking the question. >> well, i knew you were going to ask, i asked our washington analyst who lives there and lives and breathes this, and he was pretty hesitant -- >> he doesn't know what is going on either. >> yeah. and so -- >> super tight. >> yeah. super tight race. >> yeah. and so i don't -- i think it is hard for markets to price. >> markets love uncertainty. thank you. >> thank you. coming up, day three of the dnc was an introduction to kamala harris' running mate, minnesota governor tim walz, who officially accepted the vp nomination. we'll talk about last night's speech and so much more. we'll do that next. and we'll hear from kansas city

fed president jeff schmid ahead of today's events in jackson hole. all that and more. "squawk box" rolls on after this. see that >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. how many islands make up the state of hawaii? the answer when "squawk box" returns. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! (♪♪) ( ♪♪ ) morgan stanley is partnering with the women's tennis association to remove boundaries... ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed.

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>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. how many islands make up the state of hawaii? the answer, 137. welcome back to "squawk box." minnesota governor tim walz, former president bill clinton and nancy pelosi all speaking at the democratic national convention last night. joining us now from chicago is jonathan barton, politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at politico. we should add oprah to that list. what was your reaction to what you saw last evening? >> can't forget oprah, andrew. look, she's a cultural icon, and her remarks were striking because they did what a lot of people are trying to do this week here, which is reach out beyond the hall, try to touch independents, centrist voters. you heard that from barack obama two nights ago. you heard it from bill clinton

some last night. and you heard it from oprah, trying to appeal to the broad center of american voters. and there is a place for you in this party. and join us. because they know that, yes, kamala harris had a good month really, but there is a long way to go on this campaign. and she is really got to bring over voters that she doesn't already have, she is preaching to the choir she's going out and getting voters who are still really undecided or uneasy about voting for trump. >> for folks that are paying attention to the economy, and looking at these candidates and saying who is going to be better for the economy who is going to be better for my paycheck every week, how do you think that this convention is talking about that issue? >> i think it is less focused on policy than most conventions i can think of. it is trying to do two things here, andrew. two missions this week in

chicago. one is, introduce kamala harris to american voters who don't know anything about her at all, if i'm being honest. and secondly, try to disqualify donald trump. those are the twin missions of chicago. and, yes, there is some policy talk, but it is largely beside the point. you know, the one striking thing that i did take away from last night, on policy, was a classic bill clinton line where he said, i couldn't believe this, i looked it up three times. but since the end of the cold war, democrats have created 50 of the 51 million jobs created in this country overall and i liken it to a sports team that was up 50-1. again, that's not exactly sophisticated economics, you know, analysis, or even politics. but it is at least something that is trying to remind voters of when you vote for our side, this is typically what you get,

america. >> jonathan, i've heard it, you're not the first person who said that, they're going to introduce vice president harris to the u.s. because nobody knows her. and i mean, that's -- that's helpful. that's a helpful talking point, i think. but who were the people that when polled put her in last place for vice president or when she ran for president, and didn't make it to iowa, because she was at 1%, you saw her on the debate stage, in your view, this isn't rehabbing someone and getting rid of a lot of her -- i know that the left went crazy with the border czar controversy. i don't even know where that ended up, it was so absurd whether you -- semantics. but she was put in charge of whether it was the underlying conditions in certain countries, she was tasked with that and it did not go well. so none of those things have to be rehabbed? it is all just introducing this

unknown person to people? >> i think for the average american voter that is not super engaged, that is not watching, you know, hours and hours of one cable news channel or another about politics, that is not following this stuff closely, they didn't know she was a candidate in 2019. i covered that race. it was a lackluster campaign. and she did, in fact, withdraw before the holidays of 2019, didn't make it to the new year. but, i think there is a lot of people in america who don't even know that that happened or have forgotten it entirely. i think what happens is we probably assume too much about how americans follow politics. and a lot of them know she's vice president, maybe don't have a great sense of her, or aren't very fond of her for what they know. i think there is a lot for filled in and that's what democrats are trying to do. >> there was a lot of fear and

loathing in the democratic camp about how to push joe biden out because the person that was in waiting in the wings, in articles written, you could see the fear in democrats' eyes. >> yes. >> an open convention, and you liked mark kelly or at least said -- >> at the time. >> mark kelly. it was anybody but kamala at that point. suddenly she's an unknown quantity and we just got to get to know her. i don't know. i'm not buying it. >> let me ask you a question about this, getting to know her, the last time we spoke on this show, in fact, i would argue your interview went viral, if you remember, a lot of people writing about your comments that she was just trying to get to november with as few details as possible. >> yes. >> about what her actual policies were going to be. >> yes. >> and everybody wrote about him saying that. i'm curious now with a little perspective, probably about a week since i last saw you, when we discussed that, do you think there is any upside for her to

actually spell out her economic policies at this point? in part because i think there is now so much confusion about some of them. >> no. i think there is very little upside for her in spelling out any substantive policy proposals. i think most democrats privately want to run out the clock. look, early voting starts in some states in september. and i think the large preference from the democratic upper class is let's make this about do you want four more years of donald trump's, you know, chaotic leadership, and make it more about that than about her five-point plan. is she going to unveil more policy? yes. but is that going to be the centerpiece of what democrats want to talk about? no. >> there is a hilarious piece "the journal" about singing in the rain where it was a move to the talkies and there were certain stars that didn't want to talk.

>> i have one final question. >> yeah. >> which is do you think that the business community, when they think about uncertainty, which piece of uncertainty is worse? the trump uncertainty, which, you know, president clinton talked about last night, saying, you know, trump creates chaos and curates it as if it was a precious art, you had oprah talking about truth and decency. is that something the business community says is too much or the uncertainty of the policies which you say she doesn't want to talk about too much? >> you put your finger on it. either way what we're voting for is weekly or even daily combat in washington next year to influence the next administration because neither has an obvious anchorage in any sort of policy project. i think both are up for grabs and both are going to be enormously shaped by their advisers, and yes, by congress. it is going to be a whole

employment act for a lot of folks in washington to try to shape them. so, yeah, i think you're voting for a general center, center left politics and policy if you vote for kamala harris. but we don't know how far left. and we don't know how far toward the center. and with trump, are you voting for more of a traditional conservative who is going to be pained by the gop congress, by more traditional advisers around him or is he going to be in full maga populism and discard that and sort of embrace a more nationalistic approach to policy? we just don't know. i think it is going to be up for grabs day in and day out if he's president. i think if you're a lobbyist on k street, that's probably the best news possible next year. >> up for grabs as you say. well, the whole thing seems up for grabs at the moment. we appreciate it. we'll talk to you soon. thank you. >> thank you. kansas city fed hosting the 2024 economic policy symposium

in jackson hole, wyoming. that's where we find our senior economics reporter steve liesman this morning. looks like a fishing outfit to me. i don't know. hey, steve. >> a beautiful coat, steve. beautiful coat. >> looks like a fishing gear. what is that hanging out of the pocket? looks like a lure. >> no, i don't know. it is a -- i can't say whether or not i have been actually fishing or not, joe. but what i did do is yesterday i interviewed our new host now, kansas city fed president jeff schmid yesterday on the first anniversary of his taking the job. and we start -- i started off by asking him if he considers himself a hawk or a dove. >> i'd actually like to be an eagle. >> what is an eagle in monetary policy terms? >> flies high and soars over, looks at macro and makes really good decisions on its way to its home. >> we had some interesting data, just this morning, when it comes to the jobs market. they have downgraded the payroll

through the year ending in march 2024 by 818,000. how does that afect your view of the job market. >> you it breaks down 60 or so thousand a month. think for me it doesn't change a lot of how i think about the labor market, but i think generally speaking it helps us hold kind of where we thought things would be in july and then look to september. >> had you known back then that the average job growth was 68,000 less than it was at the time, which is 242,000 versus 174,000, would that have changed your view of monetary policy at the time? >> i don't think so. i think we have seen some cooling in the labor market. but i think it is generally pretty strong. i spent a whole lot of time in the district, seven states in the heartland and, you know, we have states that are still in that 2.5, 3.5 unemployment number. so they feel pretty good about

being able to hire people, and that the last probably 6 to 12 months helped their cause to form a better workforce, a more skilled workforce. >> when it comes to the concern about -- how much concern do you have now about the softening of the labor market? >> so, here again, we get back to this dual mandate, right? and to me as a fairly -- a real new central banker, i've learned that there -- it is kind of -- there is a perfection of how the labor market works relative to the inflation numbers. and there is a healthy friction in the two. and i still believe quite strongly we need to trend this inflation number towards 2, it has to be sustainable. and i think having the labor market cool some is helping that. i think there is still work to do. >> when you say still work to do, does that make you reluctant to think about rate cuts at the next meeting? >> here again, we got some data sets to come in before september.

i want to be thoughtful about it. i really do believe that you got to start looking at it a little bit harder relative to where the 3.5% number was and where it is today in the low 4s. so it bears looking harder at it. there is a dynamic in the labor force in my opinion that kind of has come out of the pandemic that i'm really interested in the demographics of labor, the skilled force, the immigration issue, it all kind of gets cooked into this stew and so i am -- i will say i'm taking harder look at it. and i'm -- i'm going to kind of let the data show where we lead. >> how many confidence do you have at this point that inflation is heading back to 2%? >> the last two or three prints i think looked pretty positive to that trend. it is nice to see it in the mid high 2s depending how you measure it. it is a mandated thing. so i -- and i would agree with several of my colleagues that, you know, you probably want to

act maybe before it gets to 2, but that's sustainability to 2. i think it is really important. >> how restrictive do you see the federal reserve right now? >> so, it is a good question. i think we're -- for my standpoint, i think rates are restrictive but they're not overly restrictive. i think there is some room to consider where we go from here, but i frankly think we have got time and it is not -- it is not an overrestrictiveness to the economy in my opinion at this stage. >> my takeaway, schmid would cut rates if the data clearly supported. doesn't mind running rates somewhat higher over time. you'll hear more about that when we're pback at 8:30 with part two. we'll hear about the possible rate cuts, the balance sheet and how much concern we should have for small and medium-sized banks. i don't know if you can concentrate on anything he was saying with the beautiful shot

in the background there. >> it almost looks fake and we were talking about that. the way things look out west, because the distances are vast, but the air is so clear and it is just -- there is no bad state out there, i don't think, steve, in jackson hole. are those the tetons? is that what we're looking at behind you? >> the tetons, exactly. the grand tetons. >> it is hard to concentrate. you got mondayetary policy to fs on. that would draw you away from anything, i think, right? >> it is hard to do all sorts of things, even when i'm fishing, joe. i'm thinking about monetary policy while the fly is going down the river. >> thinking about -- >> the trout comes up and takes it and i'm thinking about rate cuts and repos and that sort of thing. >> see you later. thanks. coming up, another day, another cyberattack. details after the break. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." this morning, halliburton has reportedly been hit by a cy cyberattack. it is aware now of the issue affecting certain systems and is working to determine the cause and impact of the problem.

you're seeing that stock unaffected relatively. in fact, up marginally on the back of this. coming up, sky bridge capital's anthony scaramucci joins us from the first annual wyomg ochainblkcin symposium to talk crypto. it is all in wyoming. it is the place to be this week. "squawk box" will be right back. '" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours. meet kandi technologies, where innovative, eco friendly design meets exceptional performance. our diverse portfolio includes utvs, go carts, golf carts and e-bikes. explore electric investment opportunities. kandi technologies. it's time to grow your business. create a website.

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check the futures. small gains in the dow and the s&p. but 60 points in the nasdaq so far. we had so far this week mostly sort of a slow drift higher, but not like the week before which was very positive. >> meantime, peloton out with quarterly results. the company reporting a loss of 8 cents a share, a narrower loss than expected. revenue $644 million, slightly ahead of analysts' estimates. connected fitness subscribers in line with expectations. for the full year, peloton sees revenue coming in the range of $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion, that's below, though, estimates. the stock on the back of the news, up 8%, but $3.64 a share. i don't know, joe, what -- do

you use your peloton? >> not peloton. it got sold, my friend. got a good price for it. that's where i really did get a good workout, trying to get that up the steps. >> from the basement? >> one of the best workouts -- you know how heavy those things -- those bikes are. >> i thought the work juout is n you hang your clothes -- >> bringing them up the steps. >> did you buy a hanger? was the hanger cheaper? >> the hanger was a wardrobe rack. >> you got a wardrobe rack in its place. >> there is one in -- upstairs. there is one there. it is not my stuff. i'm simple, as you know, in a lot of ways. coming up on the other side, mcdonald's instagram page grimacing this morning. we'll tell you why after the break. and sky bridge capital's anthony scaramucci joining us right after this. don't go anywhere. like wearable tech. trends?

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we're learning more about a crypto scam known as rug pull. rug pull. the word rug, i don't know, just -- it triggers me. bu bilked out of money and used it to promote a fake digital currency called grimace. the coin reportedly jumped from zero dollars in value to $25 million in a matter of 30 minutes and the hackers then dumped the grimace coin and posted a message on the mcdonald's account that included a racial slur. this is a bizarre story. mcdonald's apologized to millions of follower es, the account, for the offensive language, posted -- wow -- during the hack. grimace. >> grimace. >> a crappy name for -- i like world coin. is there really going to be that? >> they know who i know.

>> maybe he does. >> joining us from jackson hole this morning, not at the fed meeting, but really just right there anyway. blockchain symposium. anthony scaramucci joining us, skybridge capital. i assume they did this and put it right there in jackson hole so these things could be next to each other? >> that was the idea from one of my partners john darcy, actually. said, why don't we have a decentralized banking conference near the fed central banking conference? we did invite some fed people but, andrew, you would imagine, they said "no" to that but senator lamas and tim scott here, jay clayton here. a very strong following of c-suite level crypto industry players, and it was a great event. here at the four seasons which is a little more bushy than

where the fed is. overhang of supply seems to be ending, good news for bitcoin in the back half of this year. >> we did talk to tom lehrer earlier in the broad kacast abo bitcoin and gold. what do you think that says about the market? >> i didn't hear that, but what tom says, he's obviously very impressed, but i don't make much of it right now. the big gold bug, are saying bitcoin hasn't moved in two years and gold has gone up about 30%. therefore, it's a better store value than bitcoin. i've always maintained, when speaking to you guys, i don't see bitcoin as a store value today. i still see it as an early adapting technology. could it be a store value if there's over per a billion wallets? sure. look at it that way. is it a future store value?

yes. but i just think you've had a lot of things going on with bitcoin. as it relates to the regulatory headwinds. the grimace coin thing is not something i'm a fan of. have to totally understand why the fcc wouldn't like that. the things clouding the industry. there's payment and rail systems on bitcoin and other layer-one technologies that will advance our economies. you know if we're spending $6 trillion, $7 trillion a year on transactions and verification of transactions, this could reduce those costs. same way we've reduced a lot of telecom costs. improved innovations s and improvements in the economy. i like gold, own some gold, andrew, but i've made -- we've pivoted our business you know, three, four years ago into bitcoin and other digital assets

like solana and others. >> how much of the flows and part of the bull case, at least the short-term bull case harks been that the introduction of bitcoin etfs was go to change everything. and so i'm curious. when you now look at sort of the price action on bitcoin, how much of that is being driven by folks buying bitcoin, the actual currency itself, versus folks who are buying etfs and then those etf funds turning around and having to buy or sell bitcoin? >> you know, i think that's the central question, andrew. let's go back about a year. you know, bitcoin was hovering around 30-ish thousand. it was decimated in 2022. down to 17,000. and so the regulatory clearance for the etf made it safe to go into bitcoin for lots of institutional investors, and even places like morgan stanley are now allowing their financial advisers to solicit people on bitcoin. so we had blackrock executives

out here talking about this phenomenon. they've had $23 billion, the most successful etf launch in history. so that's paving the way and making it more acceptable. i think it's been very meaningful. if you had said to me last year when bitcoin was in the 30s, that we'd be here in the 60s post-having -- i think most people in the industry would be very happy. we always want this instant gratification and because of bitcoin's volatility, all of us were seeing, myself included, and i got this wrong but i think it's relative to timing, as opposed to actual results. i do think bitcoin gets 200,000. it's just taken longer. there's been just more regulatory hurdles, more uncertainty. there was some fraud exposed, we both know, over leverage in the system, but it's a much healthier, much sturdier system today. we like the fundamentals here. >> what do you think is going n in terms where the money is

coming from? meaning, when you see the sort of price action today, how much of that is moving as a function of the etfs versus -- versus bitcoin holders individually? >> yeah. so there was actually discussions here about that. it's about 65% is coming in to the etfs. 35 going into direct coins, if you will. it's easy for people to buy it and can be stored on their brokerage account. there's a q number. you and i on wall street a long time. my 35th year on wall street. wall street is a selling machine and they haven't ramped that up yet. matches tens of thousands of rias explaining to people they need a position like this in their portfolio. so it's coming. let me tell you something, andrew. having gone through the pain of all of this, and at least two

bear cycling of bitcoin now, i like where we are. >> finally, anthony, obviously the dnc convention is taking place right now. the conventional wisdom is that trump would be better for crypto? i don't know if -- is that conventional wisdom? right or wrong? where do you land on that given your views -- just talk about it directly. >> that's you -- that's -- >> i just like -- at the beginning, anthony, when you se we got a bunch of c level, then said c swouite. there's a huge difference. one word make as huge difference. >> it's a little early. i meant to say c suite. quickly, i think -- i think they're pivoting and i think people -- remember, donald trump pivoted. he hated it. put it out on twit the presidential feed. then went to the bitcoin conference. i think they are pivoting.

senator schumer said last week at a crypto for harris, which i attended zoom call, that he'd like to get legislation done by the end of this year. i don't know if that can happen or not. i don't the congress as well as he does, but i do see this clearing. ip do see this being something that has bipartisan support going into '25 and 2026. >> okay. >> and see c suite level people, joe. get that right for the transcript, we got real c level -- a glitzy party, like poll orr. a bunch of c-level guests. you would not say that, anthony, right? >> joe, it was a gaffe, and i appreciate you bringing up my gaffe. >> helping you out. trying to help you out. c suite. c suite. that's the good -- >> anthony, appreciate you waking up early in jackson hole g. to be here guys. thank you. coming up here -- taxing unrealized profits. for the wealthy. that's one of kamala harris'

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it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off today. a lot going on. among our top stories, canada's top two railroads locking out 9,000 unionized teamsters workers and tossing north american supply chains and a new curveball today. the companies in question are canadian national railway and also canadian pacific. kansas city moody's saying the rail's stoppage could cost $250 million a day. meantime, paramount global renewing a new offer from media investors edgar bronfman jr. extending a period during which the company is say luoed to solicit offers from outside the skydance media deal. a go shop. this is going to continue now through labor day. we'll see where it lands. and this morning a source confirming to cnbc that the body

of british entrepreneur mike lynch recovered from the wreckage of a yacht that sank off the coast of silly on a violent freak storm e earlier in the week. 272 passenger 22 passengers were on that yacht when it sank. joe? arrangements and vice president harris proposing a tax that could impact. deserve sl in the details once again. applying to how it would be applied. >> details that we know about and we only know some. that vice president harris proposing to double tax on capital gains and taxing the unrealized gains for the very wealthy. her campaign endorsing a plan that calls for increasing top tax rate on long-term cap gains from 20% to 44.6%. that would be the highest rate in u.s. history. in new york, sold stock, combined city and state federal

rate would bes 55.5%. in california, 57.9%. she's also calling for a tax on unrealized gains for those with net worth more than $100 million. calling for a minimum tax of 25% of those unrealized gains. so tax on any annual increase in the value of an asset or stock, even if you never sold it. so non-tradeable assets like a private company, they would be taxed at the last valuation event, plus some set annual increase. a liquid tax payers, less than 20% of wealth in assets could defer payments on those ill liquid gains until their death but with some interest charge. all very complimented. some estimates say the tax would raise an $500 billion in revenue over ten years. aside from raising revenue the point andrew has been making a long time, which is you have a lot of wealth that is accrued in value, like elon musk, jeff

bezos, warren buffett. the stock gains $50, or $100 billion a lifetime. passed on to heirs through a trust given to charity. step-up in basis means all that wealth never taxed and getting income against it. >> such better way of getting at it and approaching it, sorkin does. the $500 billion we could use to pay for what it could take to monitor all the -- whether this is being done right, and whether -- >> no. two things. >> you might break even. it's impossibility. >> step up on death. you have to. >> her plan calls that. >> the major piece of it, i think from a straight fairness perspective rather than taxing unrealized gains unto themselves say for those folks who decided effectively to live off of lornes and get money against their stock which is the equivalent, if you will, of realizing the gain without

realizing the gain. >> right, right. >> at some be in you decide you are effectively taxing that loan, as if you were selling the stock. >> right. >> that, to me, is the easiest and fairest way of doing that. >> how do you differentiate from that a mortgage? what do you say, this is a business. call it a business loan but use it -- then tax a business loan? you then have to differentiate loans that you're going to tax, because they're income versus all the other loans that you -- >> no, no. over a certain amount of money. a basis in a certain stock. >> right. >> and you are not selling the stop and taking a loan against that stock. and let's just say over -- i don't know -- >> someone gets an illiquid -- most wealth in this country is in private companies. >> right. >> with those taking out a loan against your company, added income. what's to say that's just -- labeled as a business loan. and then you got to tax the business loan? >> how are you labeling it as a

business loan, if it's against your own personal stock? >> you -- well, if you own the company, and you say, look, i'm going to take this as the company. i control proceeds of that loan i'll use it as income. >> correct. then you would go and look at that and say that's a personal loan to yourself. depending how the money's used. >> right. >> taking a loan against your company's assets and you need that money to invest in the company. >> yeah. >> we can have a different conversation. if you're using the loan to go buy a home or buy a boat or live, which is what a lot of people are doing. >> right. >> these days. you would decide you were taxing that. i mean, bill ackman, i think, actually wrote about this last night on twitter. >> similar. >> actually similar to what i've been talking about a long time. >> there's a lot of, i think -- i think i heard biden the other day say, worth 1,000 billion. complaining about billionaires. you know? seems like a good thing, but --

i think that the elephant in the room is that capital gains thing. i mine that -- >> above a million. going to 55.5%. and that's, here's the thing about that. people say only rich people. if you sell a large, like -- a large amount of stock in one year and all of your income, your ordinary income combined with that gain is over $1 million. you're subject to this tax. >> right. >> it's not like -- if you have over $1 million in income in one year you're subject to that tax. >> let me read actually what bill wrote last night. he didable articulate job. fix the problem make borrowing an amount in excess of your basis in a stock taxable. in other words, if you have $10 billion of stock in a company that you founded, with zero basis, loan secured by the stock should be taxable as if you sold a like amount of stock. okay? so, for example, if you borrowed

$1 billion, you would have a capital gain of $1 billion. this would be fair and practical to implement. you wouldn't do a double taxation later. >> that's right. >> right? taking that off the table. but the point is, that for folks who decide their effectively living off of these loans. >> a credit cords the alternate gain when you sell all the stock? >> yeah. i think it's a fair way to do it. >> yeah. >> and a fairer way to do it than trying to tax the unrealized gains. >> right. essentially taxing a realization. >> a realization of -- exactly. >> okay. none of these things are going to happen but we need to have a discussion. maybe they could, if the house and senate both want it. right? >> i mn, teahey need revenue. haven't heard a lot of revenue on either side.

get to the broader market and talk about technicals, not fundamentals in this case. joining us now, bofa chief technic the strategist of equities. in a nutshell what happened in the last month six that vix it over 50? >> a vix spike. every once in a while get those indicating some sort of panic in the market. 90% down day, wash out baeth

dd breath day. confirmation from market breadth at three 80% up days. 80% days stocks up of volume indicating a strong rally. also took advance declines to new highs. market's actually in a fairly strong position technically speaking given what's transpired. >> what's happening this week? last week was the big week, one of the best weeks we've had in a while. >> right. >> not much going on this week. >> yes. struggling with the 5600s, area of resistance we formed in july when we hit that level and a target for us entering the year. going forward we are ending the best three-month period of the election year from june through august. typically that period is up about 7.3%. so far right now we're up about 6.5%. so there's not much upside based on seasonality. then pause a little bit. ? an ideal world, pause ahead of the election. people get a little nerve about

election outcomes. maybe the s&p backs off 55, 53, maybe a little lower. but the good news is, though, this corrective phase, this spike, held rising 200 day moving averaging across the indices. rising 40-week moving indices depending whether or not you look at daily or weekly charts. >> could coincide with the fed finally cutting, but wouldn't be surprising to see stocks have been rallying ahead of a fed easing cycle. >> right. >> when it finally comes. already got most of the gains. if we do see that pullback to 55, 54, 53, it could bottom in october. all of these things, we've seen this movie before. might not be identical, almost seems like a sequel. >> yeah. we got ourselves, life blood of a bull market, which is rotation. first half of the year, mag seven. q3, pretty much most of the sectors outperformed.

which is good. so i think that sets up the market for the next rally. so if we stabilize, you know, struggle at the highs. maybe got a little higher. then down a bit, what that would set up is a technical formation called a cup and handle. so investors do not get as bearish as they did in early august, based on price action in september, october. and then typically what happens after the election you tend to get a nice rally into year end and could take the market towards that 6000 area sometime. >> even though it's not your objective for the year? >> it's a possibility. it's a possibility. more likely, look at big vix spikes, for instance. a year after these it big vix spikes, you tend to rally about 14%. >> really? >> that would put you around 6,000 by the summer of next year. >> okay. >> and meeting returns about 6300, believe it or not. >> wow. >> could it happen earlier than

in a? given the way the market's moving? >> okay. >> it's possible. >> all right. got to go. thanks. new this morning, former republican congressman mike gallagher, left the house back in april joined palantir to join the company's defense business. joining us from wisconsin first right here on "squawk box." good morning to you. i can't call you congressman anymore but i can ask why you decided to take this job. >> well, i've dead kat ked kkat dedicated my life to protecting the country and decided to continue that in the private sector. war in the middle east, war in indo-pacific turning hot risk if we don't get off this path of complacency and i firmly believe palantir is at the leading edge of deterrence. error of defined warfare,

countries that don't leverage warfare systems are simply unilaterally disarming. further say in communities like mine, manufacturing community in northeast wisconsin, palantir is at the leading edge of revitalizing america's industrial base and finally i would say as we've talked about multiple times, ensuring the select committee on china i came to realize the true divide on national security is not really between republicans and democrats. rather between wall street/corporate america and normal america. too often corporate america simply was unwilling to defend american values from chinese communist party aggression and transnational aggression. with palantir, you have a company unapologetic in its defense of the west, and its belief that free world is a good thing and worth fighting for. i think it shows that you can suck cede without selling your syour -- succeed without selling your

soul in the process. >> you were house select committee chair on competition with china and a lot of lessons came out of that. do you have more hope or less and do you think you have the power to change things there, or do you decide ultimately there was no power to do that? in that role? >> no. i felt like i had the best job in congress, and we got a ton done. in fact, the last bill i got passed i think was one of the most consequential of the 118th congress. the tiktok bill. really, i was revitalized in my belief that republicans and democrats can work together to get big things done. i think the challenge we face is that we have an adversary, which is not just a military threat. it's also an economic and technological and ideological threat. we're having to flex a lot of muscles we haven't flexed in a long time. and we are, too many people are unwilling to even utter the words "cold war for fear of a voldemort iphenomenon will take

place. we need to wage that cold war with the same energy wage in a natural hot war. that's the business we need to be in. preventing war. tuc too often i think china lulled us into a false sense of security. >> you said before the idea you think corporate america actually played a role in preventing, frankly, the u.s. government from doing more as relates to china? palantir has been very outspoken on these issues. having said that, palantir does lots of business with corporate america today. >> yeah. i think palantir is showing the way forward. which is that it's going to be increasingly difficult for companies to maintain their manufacturing presence in china. and i think increasingly wa we see is that xi jinping is

expediting his plan. working together with closest allies, aussies, brits, key countries in the indo pacific, pool or technological resources and human resources to out-compete and win this competition and prevent more in the process. i think that's the path forward and again i think palantir is playing a keir y role and we ne to make it easier for new companies to get into that space and cross the valley of death. palantir is one. few who has done successfully and broken through the bureaucracy that oftentimes makes it too difficult to do business. >> i want to ask you actually about tiktok. bytedance and the bill passed pushing or presses bytedance to sell tiktok by, i believe, january 19th, 2025. obviously there's lots of appeals going on in court. mow do you think that is going to end?

>> i think the bill will survive any legal challenges. for no other reason than we spent months and months working through a draft inviting technical assistance and feedback from the administration. this was the product of multiple iterations. a very thoughtful process. in fact, exactly the legislative process should work and you have the legislative branch working with the executive branch. i'm very confident it will survive any legal challenge. listen, the outcome we want to see is that the chinese communist party allows bytedance to divest tiktok away from its core business. therefore, you could have an american company, european company, some conglomerate assume ownership. users continue to use the platform without fear of espionage, coercion or propaganda infecting the platform right now. >> here's congress saying this is a very dangerous platform and yet you have former president trump using the platform for his

campaign. and you have vice president harris using the platform for her campaign. what does that say about the danger? >> well, neither should be using the platform. i think it shows that political expediency, the desire to win younger voters who are hyper online is taking precedence over national security concerns. now, that's the bad news. the good news is, i think my committee in congress has shown that democrats and republicans took this issue seriously. look at the final vote tally question got over 350 votes. i'm not sure anything else commanded that level of bipartisan support. so i do think notwithstanding the political edgeancies of the moment, there are thoughtful members of congress in the executive branch trying to do the right thing and i concede this is a very complex issue. bound up in a broader issue of cross-border data flows, foreign adversary control of social media. so it's not just cut and dry, but we tried to be very knnuanc.

why i'm optimistic about the path going forward. >> in the middle of the dnc convention and politics is everywhere. as you know your new boss alex carp just told maureen dowd he'd planning to vote for harris in the election. you've said in the past you were hoping the republican party would find a new or different presidential candidate. rather than former president trump. who are you going to vote for? >> i thought the beauty of being in the private sector is i no longer had to answer any trump-related questions. particularly check in in a private booth going forward. >> the good news about your company, interestingly, is that you could have a boss in alex carp on one end of the political spectrum and his boss in peter thiel on the other end and you could be in between or wherever you want to be.

>> i do thinks that is the strength of the company. with that more companies, american companies, have that approach rather than having a monoculture. as for me, i mean obviously i'm not going to vote democrat. i intend to support republicans, you know, i believe that republican policies are better for the country, particularly in the midwest. strong defense. sensible deregulation. abandoning identity politics, but really my concerns are twofold. one, neither candidate has been asked serious questions about national security and foreign policy at a time when deterrence is disintegrating around the world. i can't think of a more important set of questions that need answered. we need to have that debate. i stand ready to work with anybody to make that happen's in a new role getting out of partisan politics and returning to my vocation as a national security professional. the second thing is that really the fundamental problem with our constitutional system is that the president sea has become too

powerful. best thing not obsessing over presidential election, reduce power of the presidency, devolve it to congress and the states. a much healthier system. make presidents boring again. that's my 2024 political focus. >> okay. mike gallagher. thank you, sir. nice to see you. congratulations on the new gig. >> uh-huh. >> and mapiva. hats ulta -- know what i'm saying? >> not really. >> no. >> i'm slow. >> make presidents boring again. instead of make america great. that's what he was saying. >> i got you. >> that would be mapba. deplorables. a lot more political advertising in your media diet. after a break, hearing about

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and we are just about a minute away now from initial jobless claims that we get, as you know, on thursday. today we're going to be actually seeing new initial claims apparently. i don't know if you saw that. we won't be bringing you last week's or the week's before. it will be the current ones. >> that's good. >> yeah. what i was thinking. great, great idea. futures up 25 points. nasdaq up about 55. the s&p as you can see up about 9 points. take a quick look at the treasury yield curve here.

3.83, i know jackson hole's happening. rick, i saw the last night. felt like night. actually it is for a guy like mere, close to my bed time on "power lunch" at 2:00, and you read into those crazy numbers we got yesterday. i don't know. most people say it doesn't mean much. i guess i'm going with the flow, but give me these jobless claims. as you have the new ones. don't give me the old ones. >> yeah. i won't give you any old ones, and i'm sure that there will be, at some point, revisions, but initial jobless claims for the week of august 17th, expected to be slightly above 230,000 delivers exactly that, joe. 232,000. so that's now up 4,000 from a very slightly revised 228,000. boy, these things have been awfully well behankvbehaved. 250,000 the last week in july and that really created anxiety, brut

but here it is back down again. the other hand continuing claims notched 11th consecutive week above 1.8 million. 1 million 2873. moved slightly. 1 million 859. yields up. ten-year note yields up above yesterday's high yield. now up four basis points on the session. two years up i handful of basis points on the session. and, yes, joe. to me, when you think about all of the econ ometrics they he's n to use, inputs and outputs. accuracy on input is high usually output's pretty good. but turns more into the garbage

in, then it's garbage out. jobs initially thought were there aren't is necessarily garbage but many who say, aww, either old because of march 24, or doesn't really matter, no. those were significant inputs at a time where the fed was looking to be higher for longer. maybe some of that would have altered the ultimate course. we don't know any of the counterfactuals but it underscores something i've been on since post-covid. and that is seasonality. seasonality, seasonal adjustments, aren't accurate like they were pre-covid and they're going to get more inaccurate as time goes on. people are harder to survey. harder to find. all of this is going to make a difference in how these econometric models in the future dictate what fed policy may or may not be. in terms all of these things we're learning about taxing and ub realized taxing, bank robbers

rob banks because that's where the money is. it's is fait accompli. in the hole almost $2 trillion this year. look at the numbers. they have to find money somewhere. discretionary spending, that slice of the pie is so small you need a microscope to see it. can't cut your way to prosperity there. they have to get the money from somewhere! i look at all of the piles of money that they're considering. think about if you're a baby boomer. they have an audit trail, of your retirement money, that's a mile long. there's money they'll try to get their hands on as well. spending by the government over what they take in is a tax. it's already a tax. i don't know how we're going to pay for any of this stuff. to think we could push off the government trying to get more money from us, that's a lost cause already. they've already spent into that dimension. back to you, joe. >> thanks, rick. and stay with us. i'm going to ask -- i was

reading it yesterday, steve. once again, you know, these revisions happen obviously. every year. but this was the biggest once sin 2009, and when i was reading it, it said it was because the pandemic once again skewed figures that there were births but they didn't take into account the deaths from the pandemic? therefore there was some business formation that didn't happen. did you read all that, steve? >> i did, joe, but -- i mean, i don't think it's -- i don't think it's endemic to the pandemic, so to speak. >> what was it? hopefully it wasn't -- gild the lily and make the economy look betterduring an election year. i'm trying to work for you here. >> no. that conspiracy stuff, joe, total bunk. you know that. here's the thing. all right. the birth/death model, something that tries to estimate what's going on in the economy with the birth of companies or death of

companies. it can be wrong at turning points in the economy, but i want to explain to you why i thought -- why i said i wasn't sure how much signal to take from this. the reason as you said. this was the biggest revision since 2009. so i went back to look at 2009. if you take a look what was happening with jobless claims for example. they were already, by the time the revision came out up 600,000. unemployment was already 5%. it's 1.2% now. four-week moving average now if 235,000. unchanged from a year ago. my point, joe, is that at the time that that big revision came out we were in the middle, already had a declared recession. gdp negative. a whole suite of confirming economic data points about weakness in the economy. that just does not exist now. i think rick makes good points whether the fed was easier now,

better to get it right. 100% right an seasonalities. not sure how much signal to take from this why today's jobless claims were very reassuring. >> steve a good time, good segue into more of your interview with, i don't know a lot about the kansas city fed president, jeff schmid. my takeaway, got a heck of a head of hair there, steve. president schmid. >> you know, joe, i sort of thought that was going to be your big takeaway. >> yeah. yeah. never just -- superficial p-- i like the eagle, too. not a boston college grad. i want to fly around and save things, eat rabbits and stuff like that, too. >> joe, my big takeaway is how consistent the nomination of schmid was relative to our good friend esther george now a cnbc contributor and have that job.

a lot of the same focus. you'll hear that in this interview when we talk about monetary policy as well as a small and medium sized banks where he has a focus. >> be a little bit different in my thought process of that. my background is banking and regulatory, and i think that the rate the fed funds rate and some of thecost of capital and credit is kind of relative. i appreciate the real rate our star conversations but for me, i'm really pleased that business and the banking industry have seemed to adapt, have adapted to this rate range that we're in. so i think there's room, and if it's necessary, i think we've got the tools. i'm an optimist. i think we might be moving into, possibly, a nice decade. where you might get this, this landing that we talk about. it's more important we get into a soft wave where the monetary policy can really act and react to a much more normalized or

equalized economy. >> what's your sense of the balance sheet and the idea that it's being brought down, but is it being brought down fast enough? and to what level do you think it should be brought down to? >> i've been fairly public about the balance sheet. i wouldn't second guess how it was built and why we ramped it up to where it was on the 9 trillion side. we're down around 7 today. i think there's room toll really get more out to get out of the financial market and -- and faster than we are. >> the kansas city district typically had a president focused on say small and medium sized banks. obviously the selection of you appeared to continue that tradition. give us a feel for how those banks are doing? >> i spoke to a number of bankers associations over the last year, and i tell them i'm really pleased and proud how they've adapted and clients adapted to some of this higher rate environment. at the same time maintained earnings, maintained capital.

>> do we need to worry about another silicon valley bank thing? >> i this the banks post-'08 diversified strategies. a lot of more traditional retail and office space maybe went outside the banking industry a little bit more in the private equity. so i don't see, i don't see that as a looming black cloud. >> you can see the full interview on cnbc.com at 10:00 a.m. and president patrick harker tomorrow morning live on "squawk box" talk you to chair bostic and ahead of powell's speech and goolsbee at 12:30. joe, quick going into the day and the jackson hole meeting, show you the fed fund futures and how confident the market now is in coming rate cuts especially after those minutes yesterday. 100% probability of a 25. 71% probability in november.

back and forth. end of the day, they're seeing 100% probability of a full percentage point decline by end of the year. where the market's priced right now, joe. >> someone wrote in that your backdrop looks like a long-term disney chart of the, those mountains. 90 -- ten years ago disney was 90. ran all the way up. and then it's at 90 -- doesn't it, sorkin? look at that. not kidding's that looks like a ten year. >> just looks like a green screen. that's the thing. >> it does look like a green scene. steve, is an eagle closer to a hawk? i mean, they're both -- a dove is, you know -- >> good point, joe. >> right. right. an eagle is closer to a hawk than, like -- a dove -- a little dove -- >> look at that aviary acumen on your part, joe. pretty good. i like that. >> told me we have to go, joe and vociferous about it. go on every person we've been talking to. got to go. >> talking a lot.

>> leave it there. >> see ya later. coming up, steve, thank you. when we come back all places the harris and trump campaigns can place ads and spend their hundreds of millions of dollars in cash. that story next. "squawk box" returns after this. sure, i'm a paid actor, and this is not a real company, but there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. search talent all over the world with over 10,000 skills you may not have in house. more than 30% of the fortune 500 use upwork because this is how we work now.

the surge in presidential fund-raising matched in a surge by ad spending leading um to november. might be my favorite time of an election year, julie. all the local ads and everything. i can't see enough of them. joining us to break it down. hey, julia. >> well, joe, this political season will be a record breaker when it comes to advertising with a 29% increase in total political ad spending projected as well as a big shift into digital political ads according to emarketer. kamala harris' campaign announced it is spending $170 million on television ads and a record $200 million on digital ads between labor day and the election. this as traditional tv spending is growing 7.5% for 2020 leveling according to emarketer, while total digital ad spending is projected to grow 156%. that includes ads on going's the

youtube and meta. the fastest growing part of that digital category is connected tv ads. projected to grow more than 500%. with that growth connected to-tv ads comprising more than half of all political ad spending. hulu, peacock and paramount+ all accept political ads. newcomers netflix does not. the appeal of these connected tv blatt for platforms over two-thirds stream on them as opposed to non-traditional tv. comes to local tv increases station owners, reported a second quarter boost from political ad spending. now they all have guided to record political ad spending over the course of this year. now, trump's campaign has not announced its fall advertising plans just yet, but so far harris is spending a lot more on digital media ads than trump

since she started her race. back over to you. >> so do it on one of the streaming platforms, why is it better than just the normal, you can customize it better, julia? >> you can target the consumer better. so you could reach someone based on their zip code. also maybe based on their other shopping preferences. i mean, these platforms have so much information about who's watching what, who they are, and some of these ad tech companies like the trade desk allow this more specific targeting. we're seeing companies like the trade desk benefit from the surge in connected tev, ad spending in the political realm. >> okay. so if you -- if you can target someone who, like spends a lot of money on retail runs up big credit card accounts that's where the democratic candidate would target that person, andrew? >> i didn't say that, joe.

>> doesn't that make sense. >> always wants his way. always. you can't -- he can't help himself. >> very comfortable spending -- >> joe, think about how the connected tv ads, targets the soccer mom. someone who just bought a car. >> you don't need to target her. she hates trump. don't have to target her. not going to vote for trump anyway. right? if you're not oprah. >> joe, leave it there. >> okay. ou julia, great to see y. coming back with jeremy siegel in just a moment. ch oth. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll.

it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

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welcome back to "squawk box." initial jobless claims coming in just as expected. joining us right now to talk about the data, the markets, the latest fed commentary, maybe what we're going to hear out of jackson hole, jeremy siegel, professor emeritus at the pennsylvania wharton school of business. good morning to you, sir. >> good morning. >> so, what do you think of the

jobless claims number? what do you think of this sort of larger, you know, revision going back a year? does it matter? >> let me try to explain where i have trouble with fed policy. the fed has stated that its long-term fed funds rate is 2.8% when risks are balanced. now, taking a look ahead six months, if i were to ask you, what's more likely, a flare-up of inflation or a weakening job market? now, we got decent numbers, certainly, today, but between those two, i would say it's balanced, maybe even more towards a weakening job market. well, then, why are we at the most restrictive monetary policy in over half a century if we have almost a risk balance look going forward? now, a lot of people came back to me when i was, you know, really agitated a couple weeks

ago. >> and you wanted 50 basis points, and then you switched gears. >> i said -- they said, oh, it's not 2.8%. you know, they put that down, but it's really much higher. you know? the economy's doing well. it's 5.3% right now. economy is doing pretty well. maybe that neutral rate is 4.8%, so they only need, really, a couple of cuts to get to that particular level. well, you know, if the neutral rate for fed funds is 4.8% instead of 5.3%, then why is the ten-year bond at 3.8%? if you go through history, normally, the ten-year bond is about 100 or more basis points above the neutral fed funds rate, which would put it at 5.8%, wow, not at 3.8%.

>> right. >> something is sort of out of kilter here. >> so, what's the answer, then? what would you do? if you were in jackson hole right now -- >> i think -- i think they're taking on risks they don't have to take. if they would move it down faster, and i know that, you know, steve said it's 25, 50, 25. if they go 50, 50, if they'd get back down towards that 3% rate, i actually think it's 3.5%, a little bit higher than what they said, but the faster they get down, the lower the probability that they're going to have a recession and a significant slowdown in the economy, and that's basically -- i would like to explain, with risk nearly balanced, why are they twice as high as they should be. >> let me ask you a different question then. given what you know, what you want them to do and what you think they may do, how are you thinking about buying or not equities in this market? >> i think equities are, you

know, they're basically you're at 21 times forward earnings. you know, it's -- s&p is within 1% of an all-time high. 21, you know, i've often said 20 is equilibrium, so it's a little high. now, if you take out the mag seven, you're at 17, 18, they look more attractive. i don't see -- i don't see the small and value stocks moving until the fed moves, and maybe more convincingly. i think that chair powell is definitely going to open up a cut tomorrow in his speech. he will not specify how much it will be. they still have four weeks of data coming. i certainly hope it's a larger rather than smaller to get back to where i think that neutral rate is. >> and then, professor, we keep asking the same question, in part because the dnc convention just happened or is happening right now, and they are, you

know, republicans had their convention a couple weeks ago. do you think that the market is saying anything about which way the white house is going to go in november? >> well, you know, i think that if the dems get all three branches of the government, presidency, house, and senate, then it's more likely that senator harris' tax plan, and we all know that all taxes need to be renegotiated on december 31st of 2025, many of them are likely to be implemented. if the republicans can hold either the house or more likely the senate, and it looks like that could be very, very close, then, basically, you know, harris' plans -- i wouldn't say they're doa, but they're much less likely. the government still needs to renegotiate everything at the end of next year.

the composition of the congress, as well as the presidency, is really important. i don't think the market is yet focused on a 28% potential corporate tax rate, and some of the other capital taxes that harris is proposing. >> professor sgeiel, i want to thank you. nice to see you. "squawk box" is coming right back after this.

we are watching the shares of urban outfitters, the retailer dropping despite posting better than expected second quarter results and profit, but same-store sales declined by even more than analysts had expected. tullsy advisor group downgrading the stock this morning to market perform from outperform. >> let's take a final check on the markets before we hand it over to our friends on "squawk on the street." you're looking at the dow now up about 47 points. nasdaq looking to open about 70 points higher and the s&p 500 up about 12 points. treasurys right now, ahead of all of what may or may not happen or we'll hear in jackson hole. of course, you're looking right now at the ten-year at 3.831%. we can look at oil.

bitcoin as well. wti crude at $72.34. bitcoin, i don't know if we can look at it, it's going to be about $61,000 in total. $60,877. joseph, thank you, sir. nice to see you. >> thank you. >> we will see you all. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> i'll be here. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures fairly steady. s&p within about a percent of all-time highs. jackson hole begins. jobless claims in line. the ten-year yield recovers a bit after falling to near one-year lows yesterday. our road map begins with the markets on this jackson hole watch day as the fed minutes yesterday do indicate a september rate cut is likely. on the earnings front, snowflake shares down sharply, despite the company raising guidance.