if you could only see what just happened right now offset. welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans, i'm dominic chu. coming up on the show, we've got one side of the capex coin. many experts see a boom.

on the other side, some are announcing capex reductions. we're going to look at undrum, >> this election, kamala harris is dominating the social media front. we'll discuss further ahead. first, a check on the markets overall, the dow sliding more than 300 points at this stage. they're bracing for jay powell's speech. >> peleton takes ahold of 36% to around 450 a share. advance auto parts down 15%, snowflake down 13% as well after their results. we'll trade those stories shortly. and how pfizer and moderna are doing. the fda is approved an update for covid vaccines as the virus

surges. right now shares down 4.5%. now worries around the consumer that are controlling to surge. we saw the sales struggles. williams sonoma following suit. clothing retailer holding up slightly better. signs of softening are stim there, but market signals are still relatively bullish. more than 90% of the stocks and s&p broke their ten-day moving averages this week, so shorter term, things are looking okay. joining is our guest along with mike santoli. this is an interesting development and i feel terrible because we keep saying it's interesting, but it seems like it's the same thing over and over that any time there's a pullback of whatsoever, it seems to be bought, not in an enthusiastic way, but enough to keep the markets going higher and higher.

mike, we'll start with you. it has. changed, it seems like over the course of the last year. >> not much. it's nearly 10% if you look at the intraday high and low. it's an opportunity for traders and investors to say what's changed? has there been a 10% swing in fundamentals? seemingly not. it's been broader and steeper. it came alongside, i would say over the last couple of days, just this pileup of data points and observations that had the bond market really going far down the path this is a dovish scenario. whether we really want that or not, whether we really want the economic conditions that would bring that about, totally unclear. as powell waits to speak, i think today is a little bit of a stepback from the ultra-dovish yields down, dollar down, small

cap cap stocks up. >> kevin, has it surprised you at all about just how quickly the story has shifted from, oh, my goodness, gracious, it's the worst inflation in 40-some years and now we're worried about the job decreasing. >> if you lack over the short-term, there's still a great deal of uncertainty about what the fed will or won't do next. they're going to cut be i 25 basis points in september and likely revert back to their march dot plot chart which showed three rate points of 25 basis points each year, another in 2025 and yet another three rate cuts each in 2026. if that is, in fact, the case, if rates are lower, yields are lower, the inflation continues to moderate over the next two

years, that provides strong tabloids for stocks and bonding to continue. >> we were talking about hue the fed needs to cut due to inflation. i heard from some bulls after the segment who said i don't always agree with him, but i think he's right this time there's no way the fed is cutting. >> i think there's no way they're cutting. they're splitting the difference between the 25 and 50. i guess i could understand the argument for 50 because if there's going to be a 50 at some point in the easing cycle, you're stating with more than 125 right now, so it's a smaller proportional decline and a gesture that says, look, we're starting a new process that rates up here are restrictive. let's get going. i don't think it necessarily has to be or -- i do think the

market wants an understanding that we're going to narrow that gap between where rates are and inflagsz is. to me the bold case for two years now has been inflation will come down faster and the economy will weaken. that still remains the case, but we seem like we kind of have a moment of doubt about that. >> that's where they're converging. >> exactly. >> but the dow is kind of key because you have this conversation that's happening in the certain kind of macroeconomic sphere about whether or not americans would be better off having a slower growth and perhaps job losing environment as opposed to having a job with wage gains that are more moderated but having their wages eroded by the effects of higher inflation, right? and so there's this weird line that you have to straddle, but i wonder, kevin, if you go 50, that also kind of signals, okay, things are maybe not as good as

they were and that could send all kinds of reverberations in the market. >> look at their last summary of economic projections. they forecast core pc to not return to their target until the end of 2026. yet they're thinking two basis point cuts. if they're so determined, why would they be cutting interest rates by that much prior to getting back to their 2% target? i believe unemployment hits 4 37b9 3%. keeping in mind their year end f forecast was only 4%, concerning. >> they'll have to acknowledge that they're going to come along.

kelly, talk about the delayed cycle, believe that. on the other hand earnings growth has picked up from flat to positive, negative to positive. so it's very much asin kron is in. it seems like they're not in line. >> steve liesman has been talking about that for a long time. it started in industrial and got to housing. i don't know what that means for the typical behavior of stocks either in a normal cycle or this one. people say we've been in an strul sec. we're tracking to have those other 493 stops outperform the mag 7 for the first time in two or three years. that broadened of the expansion is important. that will only be further accelerated once the fed starts cutting interest rates provided they do it on a gradual basis or provide a cut of 50 basis

points. >> the early cycle -- it's like we're starting all over. >> it's a reset button. >> we never had a recession, but we're restarting the business cycle? >> it's the first bull market to ever start while the fed is still tight. so you think about all -- nothing really works. >> wow. all right. kevin, thank you very much. mike santoli, thank you very much. we could go on for hours. we should do a podcast. mere with our trades is bill from bell curve trade. welcome. let's go super micro. peloton returns to sales for the first time in nine quarters. simeon said they need to focus on bringing sentiment down if they want shares to go much higher from heef. she has more room to run on the -- i fired 358 to 360.

in the short term, it looks good. in the bigger scheme of things, the structure is -- technical structure is really problematic. you put in a high of 171.91. you have people way offside. short term again, we have more to go on the upside. bigger picture, i don't want to own the name. trading stock like diving or figure skating, you don't get points for extra level of dchy. the long term is very atsz mat

eck and they're going to go sideways for a lore pead yood of time. >> let's talk about the consumer front still. advance auto parts. again, it wasn't long ago during the pandemic, everyone was going to fix p their cars. what's happening now? >> when you have these stocks with these meteoric rises and big falls, it disdoesn't matter. you look at the average person. they still around 144 bucks a share.

i city think there's more to go on the downside. i would want to get short from 53 to 67, again, it's another one of these situations where you have a big significant move to the outside. we call it velcro top hef am hotmore shelves in the market. i think you go to 35, $40 before you start to find some moe bail. >>. so you think they covuld more room to drop. that one's down after topping results. it's down 13%, 23% on the year. what's your take? >> same thing. know sflaic is in a worse situation.

they beat second quarter earnings and revenue, lifted full year guidance, and the stocks get absolutely pounded. not a good sign. again, if you look at the lodge tim. . snowflake's no difference. you had a h 29 in december of 2020. the average position is around 220. people are way offside here. i'm looking to move from 113, 100, at least down to 90. so all of these -- basically these three names fall into the same category where you gnome. in all of these cases. work it off before they can do

anything manful fip. >> tlirng yo go. thank you very much. we'll see you soon. >> take care. still to come. check out wolfe peen. it was up 8% of the open. we'll dive into why and what's going to on next.

did you ever worry we wouldn't get to enjoy this? (inner monologue) seriously, look at these guys. they are playing great. meanwhile, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month. with empower, i get all of my financial questions answered. so i don't have to worry. so you're like a guru now? oh here it comes— join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next.

is it possible to count on my internet like my customers count on me?

it is with comcast business. keeping you up and running with our 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? -your data, too. there's even round-the- clock customer support. so you can be there for your customers. with comcast business, reliability isn't just possible. it's happening. switch to reliable comcast business internet with security and get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! welcome back. you've got the semiconductor names like wolf speed and transtexas instruments. but while industrials and materials have lagged the broader market there's an old school capex boom that could be

coming. here's the stories and insights. we've got pippa stevens for one of them and steve coufax for the other. pippa, we'll start with you on how things are shaping up for the trils and materials. >> we could be on the verge of an old school capex boom as bank of america put it. security and better control over the supply chains, protectionism which includes ai and data centers. industrials and marketing are broad. industrials are now trading at their cheapest valuation relative to tech in more than a decade. in the last six years f e just 12 cents. names to watch include emerson electric. martin marietta, and

freeport-mcmoran. >> steve, what are you seeing in the chips? >> let me go back a little bit. it's all that massive capex names like google and paying for artificial intelligence. two chip names are reversing that trend. it's going to cut capex to $2 billion from $5 billion by 20267 if sales come in at the lower end of their good answer. now this is an unusual move for ti. usually they don't put out this stuff so arlier. it's coming out from elliott management to keep up strong cash flow, and, of course, elliott praised the announcement this week. wolf-speed also a little expecting up to $1.4 billion now, which is lower than the $2.1 billion that it had in 2024. but it says capex is going to

fall more. speed is up about 7%. t.it. up about 7%. big tech, microsoft, google, and amazon. those shares were punched because they say capex is going to increase to build out their ai ambitions. apple is the group spending relatively little, about 2 1/2%. that's compared to its peers, of course. we're going to see how it really impacket. everybody wants to notice. if investors are viewing the whole capex picture, is it about this growth/balance that they've had to strike because of artificial intelligence. or is it more on this side of

the idea if they aren't spending, it's because they have a reason to and they need to grow and that's the reason why we're doing it on the old world value equation? >> i think so. that's still further down the line. you have to build it out first. there's been so much interest in the cloud, the ting and i ai itself. you have to focus on the guys who make it come to life. those areas have opinion overlooked. >> i wonder, steven. maybe you can add some color to this. all of this is with the idea there's going to be a massive payoff with these investments. >> exactly. >> what is microsoft's uptake? >> that is exactly the big question. we heard it again on these

earnings kaling the even p tire. when are we going to see a return? when are we going to see a revenue growth? the answer is we don't know. they simply literally can't keep up with it. they even off-loading stuff to yore ample. the demand is truly there. . it's here, it's happening. that's what i keep saying. alphabet's ceo said he would rather overspend than underspend. it a is a differ. the day they used to call it the fate of dreams trade, if you build it, they will come.

for ai, you hope they will come. that's the whole idea why you have to spend. >> pichai's gaumt is, hey, if i overspend, there are other things we can use the infrastructure for. he didn't say what, but it won't go to waste. >> appreciate it. after the brakes,eak, we'll tal about the market navigator. that's next. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪

heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

all right. welcome back to "power lunch." a quick check on the markets. the dow industrials are currently down 211 points. that's off the lows of the stegs. it's the outperformer. the s&p 500 is down three-quarters of a percent, 5577 the last rate there. the nasdaq composite is the real underperformer off merely 1.a %. the composite is down 340 points

to a level of 17,675. meanwhile in today's market navigator as we prepare for the quarterly report next week, one trade cerseiing a bifurcation in the semiconductor session. winners and losers more clearly emerging and he's looking for a way to gain in profits. let's speak now with brian stutland at equity armor investments. brian, you're using a two-step process to play what's happening to the upside with one stock in particular. what is that stock in semiconductors and how are you playing it? >> yeah. i think when you look at the whole sector, you're right. when we have the selloff in the markets, it sold off pretty hard, but it actually only has recovered 50% from there. when i look at smh, it's 50%. we're back from the all-time highs to recent lows in august, where the rest of the broader market has sort of accelerated

higher. when we look, some of the stocks have performed quite well. the nvidia earnings, we're going to get clarity with them next week. i'll play that how i want to. the other stock that telkds to benefit from this and the rotation within that sector of winners and losers is semi-. we have a couple of federal decisions, election in november. all of this is going to create volatility. i want to lighten type it up. to do that, dom, i want to buy a call. it's very simple. i'm going out to november. i'm looking at the 175 call. the stock was trading a little bit higher earlier in the day. that call was worth about 1 $1

trillion. the semi-conduct irshould move as a whole withbroader market as well. this is a stock that's a winner. imit's going to manufacture if them. >> brian, before we let you go, this is all about risk management as well. what happens if it goes lower or the ends to rocket higher. how do you trade around that position? >> yeah, dom, i think that's a great question. if the stock were to move lower, u would probably look to sell a downside put where i want to be put to the stock, reduce the stock of the initial call i bought. at the same time if the stock goes higher prior to earnings in october, maybe i want to lighten the load a little bit and sell an upside call against it.

simply by buying this, i have some room to trade around and be a trader in the market if the stock moves lower. >> trying to define the risk out there. thank you very much for the trade in tsm. we'll see you soon. still ahead on the show, kamala harris is set to close out the dnc tonight with her hotly anticipated speech. we're going to dive into what to expect for the presidential hopeful coming up after the break. >> announcer: market navigator sponsored by charles schwab. trade brilliantly.

tony, its gone. no. how am i going to do this? welcome to the mdy mid-cap cup, presented by state street global advisors. today's challenge is to play 9 holes without the middle of your bag. how does that sound? that sounds terrible. ♪♪

♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

here's your cnbc news update. donald trump touched down in arizona, his visit comes one day before he holds a campaign rally in glendale, arizona, where he will try to paint democrats as weak on border security. the u.s. envoy to the united

nations urged members to press hamas to accept a u.s.-backed cease five proposal, saying a deal that would also bring hamas hostages home, quote, now is in sight. israel has agreed to the frame won, an ambassador linda thomas-greenfield said counsel should to everything in it power to get over the sight. and mexico is accusing someone of kidnapping another on board a airplane bound for the u.s. attempting to sweeten a plea deal for himself. mexico's attorney general says prosecutors are still waiting for the u.s. to share the flight's information. kelly? >> all right, bertha, thanks. it's the final day of the

democratic national convention. tonight presidential vice president harris will take the podium. her policy plans are on display from regulation to taxes. h with us is brian. big public reaction. if i'm on the public side who cares about if public gains and realized capital gains, big plans. what standing out to bhuch. >> the corporate tax rate, the unrealized capital gains tax. there's not been a lot of detail. the campaign has been about a vibe, an energy, a feel good mentality about specifics, not by design. as some proposals are coming

out, is the vice president of the candidate of 2020 and the senator up from california or is she morphing into something different? i think there are a hot of questions about the governing style. >> what do you make about the fact that her poll numbers have slipped since last friday when the poll numbers were first unveiled. there was record viewership of the dnc, certainly higher than we saw at the rnc. what does that tell you? >> i think what that tells you is the. ever since president biden dropped out and harris secured the nomination, there has been this surge of enthusiasm, kind of a relief among democrats, and that's led to betting markets to reassess the race and she was probably in their view the

favorite. but now we're getting to tend of the euphoria stage. we'll getting into the next stage. the press interview and the debate and where she is in the polls. she's running behind where clinton and kleiothers were. >> i love when the relief rally terminology, i generally think this could be more done. >> they're both markets, political and economic financial markets. they're still markets. >> exactly. they're still influencing them, so on and so forth.

that does seem to be moving the nightle some what. the debates, so on and so forth they're not worried about the specifics of the issue especially stuff like a capital gains tax, corporate tax. that's not something that registered with a lot of voters. what does really tight that. she's tried to address that. she's the incumbent. the incumbent doesn't have a good record right now. i just think the debate is going to be -- it's always big. it's going to be bigger than normal. >> agreed. absolutely. maybe the vice presidential one as well, thanks. we'll see. let's stick with the

political front. many expect this political ad cycle in season. it could be a record-breaker. it could become a. it could be for operator. our julia boorstin has more on that emerging story about ad spending. >> well, dom, this political season will be a record-breaker when it comes to advertising. with a 29% increase in total spending and a big shift into digital adds accord p. they're spending about 70 million dollars and 200 million

at the tyime of the election. digitalade growing will go fm. connected tv aets spending. with that it will comprise nearly half of all politicaled as spending. it's an add tech company. it's benefiting as it sells those ads across the platform. the fact that over 2/3 of the population stream content, they offer better targeting abilities than traditionalade. the station owners are seeing increases. nexstar, sinclair, and tegna all reported boosted. trump's campaign has not announced its fall's an lieszing

plans, so far it's worth note tag since she started her race. >> fascinating. stick around. now is the conversation. former president donald trump brought social media to the forefront of politics with this poethis. vice president kamala harris has been making waves across tiktok. how important is that social media strategy is the digital elections? >> ginning us. this is an interesting discussion that julie has now framed for us. is it going to be about digital and advertising adds toward a specific demographic? >> i think the adds will be important. what's also important is the

memes. if you can put something out that people want to spread of their own times more traffic value than an ad that people see once and move on. i think kamala harris has been doing a fantastic job with the nigh. he's not really on ticket or true . i would think they would talk about it more effectively. >> i look at some of the trump campaign, most recently, someone that looks like taylor swift. that you can go on offense or

defense with your memes. kamala has gone with a. ca ca kamala. she's a meme-rich candidate to work for -- to boup. the way to use it more, lean into it and own it. this whole coconut treatment that was supposed to make it look serious, peel lep help. the jd vance couch meme. he hans bes been trying to coun

it. he tried by defaming it, making it silly, making it look ridiculous. i them dlairs is tryle to va that done, they have a candidate who was able to take memes around turn them into silly things a tang the aparting auto of them im. they're not adds in the traditional sense if i'm a social media person loving ad spending, am i going to if ever to get it? >> you're absolutely right. it's call earned exposure rhame.

it's a huge familiar form all all of those, the memes went viral on tiktok. tiktok does not accept paid advertising. tiktok does engage from all the engage aren't. we're seeing a hochl e engagement. they've seen google and youtube and meta. if you're talking about about m memes, that's what's going vivi viral. at the end of the day t content a that's apart-time. is going to go viral. we were talking about the different example of leaning in to the comb numb pleep.

that's driving in even if we don't zpep lean in to adds. they updated the coy individual covid numbers. up 5.5%. we'll get the latest coming up next. you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana

medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter items. and whatever you don't spend gets carried over to the next month. plus, with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan you'll get other important benefits. all of these plans include dental coverage. with two free cleanings a year. plus, fillings, and a yearly exam. vision coverage, including eye exams and a yearly allowance for eye wear. and hearing benefits. including routine hearing exams and coverage toward hearing aids. you'll also get free rides to and from medical appointments. best of all, you'll pay nothing for covered prescriptions, even brand name ones, all year long. and zero dollars for many routine

vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. plus, you'll have access to humana's large networks of doctors and specialists. so, if you have medicare and medicaid, call now to see if there's a plan in your area that will give you extra benefits, including an allowance to help pay for essentials. plus, no-cost for covered prescriptions. and coverage for routine dental, vision and hearing. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will explain your coverage options. and, if you're eligible, help you enroll over the phone. it's that easy! call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare.

welcome back. just mentioned some stock moves on moderna and pfizer. some fda approval for vaccine updates and approvals for delegates. >> both companies saying that these latest shots should be available at pharmacies within days. the cc recommends everyone 6 months and up get a booster. we're already seeing even newer

variants, but the fda saying these shots offering more protection against serious illness, reflecting some skepticism that people will actually get gotten covid in the big summer wave. novavax was lower all day and now hitting session lows. the company tells us they're working with regulators and should get their shot cleared for peak vaccination season. kelly. >> big story. thank you for that. appreciate it. a look at bond yields coming up next. "power lunch" is back in two. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns?

what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot energy fuels, a leading american uranium producer, is ramping up production to supply expanding nuclear markets and diversifying into rare earth elements, key ingredients in many clean energy and defense technologies. energy fuels.

welcome back. bond yields on the rebound today. over to rick santelli for more on this. rick is this what is hurting the broader markets? >> you know, today it was all about that 10:00 -- excuse me, the 9:45 eastern data. so we did see initial claims rather tame, even though 19

consecutive months above 1.8 million in continuing claims, seemed overlooked. once the strong service sector pmis hit the wires at 9:45, everything was a bit off to the races. as we stand now, two-year led both on the way down and it's leading on the way up. it's up eight basis points, but if you look at a two-day chart, chesting, the left and site side much more in balance in the short maturities. all maturities now traded above yesterday's high yields, but the longer the maturity the further above yesterday's high yields. so you could see 10s there, distance greater. why is that important? because it shows that momentum is building long maturities switched from kind of a stale trade to a more aggressive trade as some of these anecdotal pieces of stronger economic news seem to have a hold on the long end reversing some of that buy-in that pushed deals down well under that 385 mark.

now, look at 10s minus boons taking on added significance in front of the september fed meeting. tens minus boons hovering at the narrowest spread in a year. 160 basis points, but traders are watching this. fx traders. because should we narp narrow distance the next chart they'll pay more attention to. four-year chart of the index. take a step back closer from a tem technical perspective, the mark crowe support level. violation of that a big deal and, of course, us starting an easing cycle might narrow that spread triggering many more fx tr traders to think a violation of 100 index is possible. keep close eye on our rates versus europeans rates and that

affects us. dom, back to you. and remember, you can always here us on our podcast. be sure to follow and listen to "power lunch" wherever you go. "power lunch" podcast, audio format. we'll be right back. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans can help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't.

car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our policy. now we can relax and

enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

welcome back. we're solving world peace in this g block. >> yes. >> actually may be explaining why starbucks has so many problems. start with the federal judge in texas who thrown out the biden administration ban on non-competes supposed to take effect september 4th saying the ftc does not have tort to ban practices by adopting broad rules. >> a big deal. take you to the other one. solving world problems here. fall is upon us at least according to starbucks. the coffee giant launched a fan-favorite, yes, pumpkin collection today.

two days earlier than last year. could this move be starbucks' shot to get sales back on the upshot before brian nichols steps into the role? >> you know that's right. dom doesn't like pumpkin and no one around here does, either. >> give me mocha. fast-forward there right away. >> is this a girl-only? >> thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts now. welcome to "closing bell" i'm cart quintanilla in for scott wapner. turning to the fed speech tomorrow at jackson hole. what this commentary might mean for your money. the panel of experts still to come. meantime look at the scorecard pi 60 minutes to go in regulation. major averages across the board. yields creeping a bit high perp ten year around 3 .86. nvidia a laggard in today's session. one bright spo