could this move be starbucks' shot to get sales back on the upshot before brian nichols steps into the role? >> you know that's right. dom doesn't like pumpkin and no one around here does, either. >> give me mocha. fast-forward there right away. >> is this a girl-only? >> thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts now. welcome to "closing bell" i'm cart quintanilla in for scott wapner. turning to the fed speech tomorrow at jackson hole. what this commentary might mean for your money. the panel of experts still to come. meantime look at the scorecard pi 60 minutes to go in regulation. major averages across the board. yields creeping a bit high perp ten year around 3 .86. nvidia a laggard in today's session. one bright spot is peloton.

shares shoring after reporting a rise in sales for the first time in nine quarters. takes us to our "talk of the tape." tomorrow's speech what it may bring for investors in stocks. here to help us answer, from morgan stanley wealth management's. great to have you here, ellen. welcome back g. >> good to see you. >> i looked back. may 23rd your team at the time wrote a piece that said weaker prints are coming and looked at core pce, insurance, rent and all of it really has come to pass. >> really has. i think part of that bottoms-up approach to inflation forecasting is really what's necessary in this environment, and i think one of the critical benefits to being in a large firm like morgan stanley and being on the research side of institutional securities is that diego, on that team who is our inflation guru, is able to sit down with all of the equity analysts around the sectors and

work with them individually on what they're seeing in their sectors and what they're expecting. then understanding how the bls calculates all of those things. so the fed call for that team has been fantastic, that the fed would cut in september and go steadily through the middle of next year, because the inflation forecasts have been spot-on. >> at this point is your argument that risk assets are still too benign relative to the odds of a recession? >> i think they are. which might sound odd to say, because i'm a big believer of the soft landing. had that soft landing call at morgan stanley since march of 2022. can you believe it? that's a long-standing call. very difficult to keep a call for that long. at the same time, there is a slowing of the economy, a slowing of the labor market a slowing of inflation and the fed has to get this right. so i look at something like equities that seem to be pricing next to zero chance of recession. i look the corporate credit that certainly doesn't seem like

spreads are pricing in a real big chance of -- or big a chance of recession as probably should, just to be realistic. i'm a firm believer in the soft are landing call. i think risk assets are probably a brit too benign. >> even peers on the street took recession odds up a little bit after, say, the july jobs number. then brought them back in once we got retail sales? >> i think it's a little ridiculous to move recession probabilities around like that. so high frequency. recession probabilities are always froth with issues. right? a lot of the recession probability models themselves have a difficult time discerning the difference between a kink in growth or, say, a shift in the regime. meaning from very strong growth to slower growth, versus strong growth to recession. right? it will misinterpret. sometimes the models misinterpret. making minute changes, recession probability, i'm not sure that's helpful to investors. >> lately writing about maybe

reaching a terminal rate earlier than previously thought. what's your thinking on that. >> i think when we think about the risks, too. the fed cutting steadily, cutting steadily through the middle of next year, what are the odds that all of that goes perfectly? all right? so basically you would be saying, you know, the risk for down side from here is greater than the risk to up side. and, look. i think powell has shown he can be nimble around the incoming data. i think he would point to 2019 as a prime example of when the data was deteriorating, concerned about the global recession approaching. they moved to the sidelines and started cutting opinion sort of that quick course correction. sort of 94, 95, recognizing could you do quick actions here and keep the economy going. and so i would think that now that you don't have to worry about inflation. you can focus on the labor market. some quick course correction means some cutting could be front loaded. >> certainly reflected in some

minutes in what august jobs will give us. speaking of the fed over to cnbc's steve liesman in jackson hole ahead of an important day tomorrow. hey, steve. >> yeah. hey, carl. marked attention focused on jay powell's speech here tomorrow in jackson hole and hope, high release a dove call. we expect powell to use this jackson hole speech to explain why the fed is sufficiently confident inflation is heading back durably to 2% to begin dialing back rates soon. september, he says. and provide a basic route ahead. philly head telling cnbc here in jackson hole he thinks the fed needs to not just start cutting in september, but to begin a series of what he called "methodical cuts." >> it was all inflation, inflation, inflation for a while. >> right. >> now we're starting to see things. balance of risk getting more equalized. we do need to take more into

account when it comes to the labor market for sure. >> what did that mean, "taking more into account"? >> this september we need to start a process of moving rates down. >> harker wouldn't say if he's in the 25 or 50 base-point camp. depends on data. held back by an inflation report to come before now and the next meeting. market fairly aggressively cut for rate cuts up now and end of the year and a question whether it's once again a little ahead of itself. anyway, 100% of a 25, balances back and forth between a 50 or 25 in november. pretty secure about 100 basis points now and end of the year. while the minutes yesterday suggested good agreement on the committee about the direction of policy, still some disagreements out there, about how far and how fast to move and how restrictive policy is right now. powell is going to obviously reflect on some of these disagreements in his speech. carl? >> steve, just thinking about those in the 50 camp.

my records so jpm, citi, wells, all arguing for 50. you know who else is in the past few minutes, steve, former deputy director of the national economic council saying fomc should strongly consider 50 in september. >> saw that. interesting question whether or not you want a down payment. getting weird, you need to go. really the question. i ended my report there, carl, with that question how restrictive the federal reserve is. so think about, i don't know. maybe a spotter in the olympics where you were a week or so ago. right? you want to be close enough to catch the person in they're going to fall. so how does the fed get close enough with rates in order to be able to provide stimulus to the economy? where is that point? if you think about, do the quick math, on the 3%, say, or 2.8%, whatever you want to call it neutral rate, the fed at 540. has to get to a place where it

can help or catch the economy if it falls. >> steve, hearing a lot from you in the next 24 hours. our steve liesman in jackson hole. bring in eric johnson of cantor fitzgerald and ellen still with us here at post nine. eric, curious to get your thoughts what tomorrow may sound like and also your view what the next, say, six weeks may look like if in fact we are in the midst of a down trend? >> sure. thanks for having me. so i think for tomorrow, i'm sort of in line with what the market is thinking, and what steve just said. very dovish. clearly seeing the economy slow down. they've talked about the cut cycle beginning in september. and so i do expect them to have a dovish tone, express the confidence we are on the way to 2% and likely talk about the tools they have in the tool belt. issue or equities market is if you look at the fed fund futures they're pricing in a 3.5 fed fund rates one year from now. so when we walk away from

tomorrow, i think he'll be very dovish, but is it really going to change that expectation even further than 3.5% one year from now? very unlikely. so i think the words we parse tomorrow, we'll see volatility tomorrow around that, but i don't think the narrative is going to change. the cut cycle's a be to begin and going to be fairly aggressive over the course of the next year, my view. in terms how equities play out over the course of the next six weeks we all know seasonality around september and october is very negative. but that's not enough. it's really what else is going on? we've had this 8% rally over the course of the last week and a half. a lot has been on systematic buying. meaning, ctas, vol control funds. buying stocks because vol came in, price gone up. plik likely that's the latter stages and what's ahead is we have an economy that is slowing, and our

view is that it is going to continue to slow. because the things that are causing it to slow restrictive fed policy, high prices and declining excess savings are all going to continue for at least the next six to nine months. so we think this continued slow pressure on the economy is going to continue in a downward direction. >> peter, doesn't sound -- >> peter unfavorably. >> peter, doesn't sound that far removed from your view. meaning looking at going longer volatility and that consumer fundamentals and aggregate look to be softening. right? >> that's right. i would agree with eric's viewpoint and say it boils down to a simple question. what's priced in? how can we really reasonably get 100 basis points of cuts implied by the feds funds future market with the s&p 500 trading at 23 times 2024 earnings?

that seems like a real cross-asset disconnect. further in the rates market i would point to an inversion of the yield curve, which has been persistent for some time, but still at about 135 basis points from three month to ten year. mr. harker just expressed the reason is not only inflation going in the right direction, towards 2%, but he's concerned about the labor market. i agree. messaging tomorrow will be balancing the risks between inflation, which is done and it's been done in our view for some time, and risks to growth. risks to growth are really going to be in the forefront especially with asset prices where they are. you don't get a spike in vix to 60 -- urgent in the vix futures curve for 12 days by 3 points without there being some underlying structural concern. >> that's an interesting thought. ellen what do you make of that? that quick reparation in the vix? >> yeah, look, i think that clearly we always have to take

into account the reflexivity between monetary policy and financial conditions. and -- but i want to take a step back here and remind everyone that equities does not matter for the fed. it is not the fed's job to prop up equities. it is corporate credit. so when folks are talking about starting off with a 50 basis point or god forbid inner meeting cut where we had gone to with expectations after that early august jobs print, that is the stuff that freezing up of corporate credit markets are made of. what matters to the fed. so inner meeting cut absolutely out. i could see the commercial paper markets were functioning. part of their mandate, to ensure healthy credit flow to the economy, but the wealth effect from equities is not that strong, doesn't feature heavily into the fed's models and all their models of the three-month moving average of equities. you have to think about putting on the fed's goggles every day and looking at the world through

their lens. so those, that kind of market volatility is always assumed to be temporary and until, and unless, it affects corporate credit spreads, but i also want to remind what jackson hole is about. besides the fact that obviously liesman is there and it's a big boondoggle. did you look at the view behind him? not in the chair he's wetting a line. he's fishing. but it's about, it affords the opportunity to talk about lags on monetary policy, and so while chair powell's not going to give any indication of anything other than that approaching september cut, nothing about the cadence or the magnitude. he can talk a lot about the lags were uncertain on the way up and they're uncertain on the way down. and if they took a long time to feed through on the way up, they could take a long time to feed through on the way down which would tell you why they need to get started and could also give you a sense of that cadence without him saying it. >> interesting. peter, you also make the additional point that sometimes

powell can sound dovish even when they doesn't intend to. what do you mean by that? >> yeah. i think that's this background in capital markets at work. his tone starts out in many press conferences, at least as i've observed them, sort of sticking to the script, but, for example, it was several press conferences ago. he was asked about hypotheticals, relative to what it would take to hike and he wouldn't give them. but he was more than happy to recite hypotheticals about what it would take to cut. it's those little knew nuances maybe him more dovish in tone than he intends. addressing ellen's point. i general aagree. that said, think about underneath the corporate credit. merten shoals nodal protect it. can't xpraseparate the valuatio.

they're intertwined. i agree. the fed's not looking at them at a tick-by-tick basis. if equity volatility persists the fed will notice that. in and of itself, standing alone, they will notice that, and also certainly notice it by second notice effect credit spreads wide which they tend to do as credit picks up. >> would you agree still a remnant of the fed put in equities? >> i do, and i think it's part in powell's, the backdrop for powell, it's in his nature. he's dovish by nature. i think that fed put is absolutely there. now, the fed put is what they are trying to accomplish, but as we know, in situation where is an economy is rolling over, those fed cuts will help in the long term, but they tend not to dampen the softening that you

see, or the sharp weakening that you see, in the short term. and we've seen this in prior recessions. where we've seen recessions, the fed has been cutting throughout, but yet that you know, didn't cause the recession to just stop on a dime. it took time. so i think that's really the case here where i talked earlier about the fed fund rate going to 3.5% in a year. so you're talking about the fed remaining in restrictive territory for at least the next nine to ten months, barring the fact that the economy doesn't rollover first. that's a long time having continued pressure on the economy, and when we're already seeing the softening. i think that's really what presents this big risk and why i think there's going to be sort of an asymmetric reaction from equities to weak economic prints where they'll hit them hard. versus strong economic prints where it will be seen as a

positive but a much more muted reaction based on the valuations that we're already at. >> kind of brings up to one final point, ellen. more than jackson hole to think about. nvidia and dell earnings next week. year now involved in thematics and i wonder how u.s. think small mid-cap plays, mega cap and qs and so forth? >> getting into the cutting cycle once the fed is under way and establishing caddens, magnitude and how quickly we'll be there then i think people will continue to push on, push in the small and midcap stocks because that's sort of how you play the fed playbook. for me, i stay shorter than medium term with chief economic strategist hat on and then longer-run thematic with my global head thematic investing hat on. looking for of not what earnings will look like for dell and nvidia but how is a.i.going to fuse globally across the global

economy? so that's a much longer-term view. if i could just leave you with one last thing to watch for at jackson hole, though. i think it's important. chair powell used to say real rates are restrictive and stop saying it last year. real rates descriptive he's admitting you can drop rates a lot and still have room to press the brake on the economy, if needed. so i just think that's really important. don't forget, this is a very scripted, unlike the q&a, right? this is extremely scripted. >> what he says he will intend to say. >> yes. >> good reminder if we get it tomorrow. thank you all. appreciate it. over to kate rooney for biggest names moving into the close. >> start with snowflake. shares there continue to fall down double dump its today. comes a day after earnings data and cloud can analytics company

slowed slowing revenue product. revenue up still 30% from a year ago. morgan stanley put it, snowflake's results were good but "perhaps not enough." stock still down more than 40% year to date. and look at intel as well. that stock falling after bloomberg reports the chipmaker's director is stepping down from the board after about two years in that role. the move follows a quarterly report earlier this month, you might remember, that showed intel with its stock suffering worst decline. remember that? in decades, carl. back to you. >> thanks. just getting started. up next, top technician breaking down key levels watching the three big reasons he is still bullish right now. we're live from the new york stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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today falling back below the key 5,600 level. joining us here at post nine with key levels he's watching macro risk advisor's chief technical market strategist. great to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> your view generally constructive least in the, what, medium term? what cowould you say? >> i would say my report send out today was a long and winding road to s&p 6000. we continue to push higher but with a lot of volatility. >> what indicators lead you to that? >> so the volatility part has a lot to do with macro uncertainty. even though the vix retraced a lot of its pop, fixed income vol hasn't moved currency vol hasn't, commodity vol hasn't moved. most of the cross-asset volatility measures are elevated the market is exposed to an uh-oh moment. a swoosh lower or continue to move sideways. still a lot of volatility. makes sense. we got jackson hole tomorrow. we got nvidia next week.

got the fed -- make as ton of sense. tie it into today's tape, pulling back makes sense. >> you also looked to the accumulative a.d. line. one. most more bullish indicators at the moment? >> to me, yes. absolutely is and leading the s&p to new highs. right? the s&p 500 a.d. line is breaking outside. s&p 1500 even broader, mid and small caps in there, also breaking out and quite interesting. actually bullish on the surface. the last two times this happened was in 2018, and that -- >> sure. >> and vol shock now. previous time after that in 2020 as we were coming out of the covid bottom. broke out moments, s&p stayed sideways between two and seven months so should lead the market higher. >> leading you to what we're talling th

calling the stealth bull? >> right. what a stealth bull market is, i think folks need to be aware talking about breadth is that the average stock can continue to rally, but the indices themselves can break lower and the last time that happened, the most significant time that happened was in 2000 when the nasdaq peaked. average stock bottomed. from the low march, to may '01, 30%. what did the nasdaq due then? went down 50. s&p down 30%. that door is starting to open right now. base-case scenario but important. in this environment a lot of macro, important not to confuse market call with your stock call. >> is that suggesting to you anything about how the market perceives earnings growth between, say, a broader set of stocks versus mega cap tech? >> one way to think about it is,

like, up to now, the smaller cap stocks have been in a bear market. then reflective of the economy. but the mega caps more reflective of, say, the a.i. trade. now, with the fed needing, hoping people will cut, should help the companies closest to the economy. so i think i'm answering your question the right way but that's how i view it as. two markets. one impacted more by the fed and ones more impacted by a.i. >> seasonality? treacherous, september? some suggest. >> yeah. why i'm saying a long and winding road. every september tends to be bad bp we know that. election years, this time election cycle markets tend to struggle. volatility tends to rises from mid-august until election day. there should be some sort of a hiccup along the way. rare to see the market rip from this point until election day. >> also discussion in the midst of this whatever we're in, 11-day rally. best in a couple years.

>> yep. >> arguing that it's stealing from the normal post labor day gross up? does that make sense? >> that's fair. a huge risk come ting to the mat now. i lime vix calls now. risk/reward not great. coming back to work maybe the election dynamics change a little. maybe harris might start winning and corporate taxes coming into play play. rethink things. heading to sbeeptember there is risk. things might change. >> election cycle weighing on capex but haven't seen clear examples how it might feaffect equity behavior. >> fair. which is more important? jackson hole or nvidia next week? equally important. breadth improves if jackson hole is positive, but the stock market itself will hold up fine if nvidia does what it has to do. >> thanks. >> you're very welcome. when we come back, kavahkav-

cava up. and "closing bell" pod ct ason your favorite podcast app. we'll be right back.

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welcome back pop cava shares on a tear hitting record high

today more than doubling in six months. joining us to discuss the celtup ahead of earnings after the bell, wedbush. nick, good to have you. restaurants going through things whether that's mcdonald's. talk some chipotle and starbucks in a minute. how do you think of cava, especially valuation per store, some argued unprecedented in the space? >> really a tricky setup. hitting all-time highs every day here. consensus ahead of guidance. buy/ buy/sell ahead's consensus. need to raise guidance by quite given the conservative, not sure how they will react. one of the winners in the space, one of the major market share gainers in the space in an industrien can count positive restaurants on one hand. >> is unit growth a story? >> absolutely. in stores and restaurants today.

>> where does it rank in your universe overall relative to some other names you might have, say, with a buy rating? >> it's probably in my top five, carl. i mean, again, given the transaction growth and challenges facing the industry, you know, lack of growth overall on top of transaction growth, there's only a few names you can go into, if you are a growth investor. that gives you that sort of premium given any other options. >> and i think among your top ideas, correct me if i'm wrong, dpz? cake, and chipotle? are those the three? >> those are my top three, yes. that's right. >> what do they have in common? >> well, they're all positioned to the hyper value environment, carl. dominoes, within qsr always a value player. so as that sort of lowering customer focuses more and more

on check management, dominoes is and continues to win. cheesecake, not much to that sort of replacement, direct meal replacement consumer. they do tend to have much less volatility in terms of top-line sales, productivity of those stores. a lot more visibility to margins and a couple emerging brands like north italia and flower child that you may not have heard of, which is really an underappreciated part. growth story there. i think over the next year or two more of a valuation, and chipotle. i think the whole fiasco after the ceo left is way overblown. they have a deep bench there. their setup is extremely attractive, and i still think relative to their sort of growth rates they're actually inexpensive. >> finally, speaking of nicholl.

starbucks made news rolling out pumpkin spice for the fall, one of the earlier rollouts we've seen. do you expect nicholl's influence to be a bang or a slow fix? >> i'm a little more skeptical than the street has been. primarily because i think that taco bell playbook was a very good fit for chipotle when he joined chipotle. a clear problem to solve at chipotle, which we could tackle. i think it's a much bigger sort of issue at starbucks. i'm not sure if the issue is necessarily that clear for you to be able to just have a solution for it. it's a very different customer segment, et cetera. a global company. so i think the solutions there are going to be much tougher and they're going to take much longer to implement. >> continues to be a fascinating space this year. nick, see what we get from cava in a little bit. thanks for the help. good to see you. >> thanks for having me.

up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. our kate rooney is standing by with that. >> carl, theme here is retail. two major retailers losing ground today on worries over weaker sales. those details coming up next. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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bell. back to kate rooney for key stocks to watch. >> williams-sonoma slipping after lowering annual sales forecast and posting q2 reserve knew missing estimates. spur share better than expected. stock, wsm, worst day since may. urban outfitters today dropping more than 9% after reporting second quarter sales in those stores that were open for at least a year. those down 9% from a year ago. that was more than the 8.3% decline analysts expected and looking for shares of that clothing retailer, down more than 18% just so far this month, carl. back to you. >> kate, thanks. meantime, peloton shares soaring as you might know today as the fitness companies turnaround plans seem to be playing off. we'll break that down when "closing bell" returns.

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jux we are now in the cnbc "market zone." breaking down crucial moments of the trading day. peloton tracking for the best day ever. phil lebeau big move in advance auto parts and bob pisani watching final minutes of the session. mike, begin with you. a vix spike make sense ahead of tomorrow? >> yeah. apprehension maybe two-way risk based how the market was aggressively priced for a dovish message tomorrow. also i think august week after the big run into this week, makes sense to kind of retreat into a neutrally spot.

what i bmean, nasdaq pulls righ back to 50-day average. two-year treasury yield 4% flat. exactly middle range for the week. let's not lean too far in one direction ahead of powell. big picture, been this great one. sort of stalled out or maybe jut paused around the 5,600 level of the s&p 500 and kind of know what powell will say. the question, taking credit for what's happened on inflation and data dependent or maybe a clearer road map? >> information technology down a full 2% here. did get an uptime high on meta earlier in the session. thoughts about that? i wonder, did retailers add any color to what we already knew? >> in terms of tech, a rebound more selective than used to first half of this year. i mentioned nasdaq 100. look at semis. really didn't take back as much of the correction losses as the rest of the market did. seems as if there could be sort

of an ongoing, sort of leadership shift. equal weighted s&p not down much today. seems banks are stepping in. retail in general you want to take it in aggregate starting with walmart's results going through what we heard today and hear more after the close. in general better than feared. in general 4% annualized wage growth plus 4% plus-ish unemployment rate is still a formula for the pie growing if more slowly than we thought before. maybe it complicates what we hear from powell because, again, consumer economy is maybe a little more resilient than we feared a couple weeks ago. even if it is still in slowdown mode. >> mentioned earlier today magnificent seven on pace for the first relative under performance against the s&p in nearly two years, mike. same time equal weighted s&p all-time hype or close to it. is the market trying to sniff

out this? >> it is. one. reason the mag seven dominated first two quarters of the year, scarce of earnings growth, had pretty mitch all of it, now decelerating from very high risk. makes sense textbook-wise. i always want to emphasize, said this a month ago. a broader market isn't necessarily a safer or more stable market. when you have things like bank stocks or russell 2000 kind of wildly acting up, even if to the upside. sometimes it makes the market trade looser and, therefore, a higher vix, therefore rotations less elegant. not a big problem overall for the market if the trend stays intact. which is has. i think you can kind of be a, be careful what you wish for if you say, hey, mega caps correct and have fun elsewhere. >> stick around, mike. brandon on peloton. first saw print this morning and saw digital subs down 26 year on year wasn't sure this would be

the result. >> yeah, carl. look, been a wild ride today. obviously get into the numbers. stop stock surging on a better than expected quarter. progress for the stock, yes, but a long way to go. sales increase, first one in nine quarters are to the company prioritizing what they say profitability, free cash flow over growth. the question is how are they going to do that? interim co-ceo said on the earnings call not spending inefficiently to acquire unprofitable subscribers. arguably perhaps a past strategy. company's cfo updating on company the promise to deliver 200 million in run rate cost savings by end of fiscal 2025. peloton making massive cuts to sales and marketing spend running less promotions. the company delivered a approximately $15 million scost savings, payroll reductions heard in july, fitbit and amazon's kindle announced product integrations past weeks

and hedge fund manager david einhorns acquiring 6.8 million shares of the company according to 13f filings. carl, ceo search still on at peloton, although they say they have a few specific folks in mind to turn the company around. >> almost 36%, brandon. thinking about barry mccarthy wondering how much of the turnaround had the seeds planted by him before he left? >> definitely is. has to do a lot with that app integration. getting people that aren't just, don't just need the hardware. don't just need a bike or tread to enjoy peloton or subscribe to peloton. that's their strategy going forward. offering apps like strength-plus. a more premium experience, which down the road they say might encourage folks to pay more for this as much as. all part of the turnaround plan. seed planted by barry, as you said. >> thanks. get to phil. advance the auto parts slumping. what's behind that move? >> a rough earnings report,

carl. basically when you miss by 18 cents a share that's going to put you in the hole right out of the gate. beginning of the day. then when you have guidance like we saw from advanced auto parts you see pressure all day long. look at the stock down more than 15% for most of the day. you see it down 17% coming in at 75 cents a share. street expecting 93 cents a share. guidance, though, real pressure. they are now expecting for 2024 to earn between 2 and 250 a share. reevesly 375 to 425. comparable store sales. negative 1% to flat down from flat to 1%, and then operating margin 2.1% to 2.5%. a cut from 3.2 to 3.5%. nayway you look at it a company in transition and as part of that transition, they did announce today that they are selling their world pack unit. subsidiaf theirs they were trying to sell and they have reached agreement to sell it for

$1.5 billion. they're making moves that need to be made, carl. this is a relatively new management team, and i'm not surprised to see the stock under pressure because of that guidance, but i did talk to a couple analysts who said, look, they're making the moves that need to be made here. a little patience and you may see a different result in the quarters ahead. >> phil, while i have you, it's not a great take today, but tesla is a relative under performer down almost 6%. there was some discussion yesterday about ford and the tweaking of the ev strategy. good or bad news for tesla? >> i'm not sure it's bad news for tesla. i think tesla is its own story, carl, to be quite honest. it won't do a lot in my opinion until you get q3 dliveliveries first three days of october. october 10th the robo event. two catalysts out there. for tesla shares opinion obviously q3 results. big one robotaxi day october 10th.

>> phil, thanks. a lot going on in cars, and airlines. that's our phil lebeau. to bob. what do you make of the market? >> ran out of steam. on a tear. the s&p 500's up 6% almost in the last eight our nine trading days. moved 300 points in the last eight or nine trading sessions and most gains come largely in technology. today down, technology. point out semis, smh up 11, 12% in the last eight or nine days. on a tear. today, of course you see ran out of steam. last two days it's been very, very toppy and nvidia same them opinion there's your market leader. 105, went to 130 in eight trading days. popped out in the last two days. seeing moving down side again and phil talking about tesla. tesla's had an amazing run. below 200 eight trading sessions ago. went to 225 and now it getting back most of that gain. what i like today laggards are

leaders today. you have bank stocks leading. they've been lagging recently. energy stocks, oil has been on a down trend for a couple of weeks now. and look what the market leaders are today. banks, energy, on the upside and real estate. a leader for a while. i like the rotation again here. i think if you put it all together with earnings holding up, inflation waning a bit. job growth is slowing. it seems like a very low bar for the federal reserve to cut rates. obviously hear from powell tomorrow on that, but the volume today is 30% below normal. no particular catalyst. just no buying interest. it's not selling pressure. it's a lack of buying interest that was happening today. >> what do you make of the fact that we're going into next week, volume arguably still light, and such large tech catalyst like ne nvidia? >> moving the market, getting nvidia. remember, numbers we know about

nvidia, their earnings acceleration slowing down now for a whole year. we know their earnings will be great. they're just not growing as fast as they used to be. they have to find another reason to reaccelerate their earnings growth. i don't know what it's going to be, but the street will be surprised if they dramatically raise their numbers moving it to the up side. >> are you worried about september seasonality? >> yes. >> you are? >> almost invariably you get a sell-off middle ofseptember into october. going on for a very, very long time. the fundamentals are still intact. remember, third quarter gdp, still looking at close to 3% gdp growth. that's the atlanta fed's estimates for q3. what matters here. >> goldman today reiterated their tracker with a healthy two handle as well. >> when you have that and you have 10% earnings growth for 2024, 15% for 2025. you're looking at the numbers that are still very, very sportive for the markets right now. it's pricey, though.

if you get these sudden sell-offs all of the sudden people don't want to play the multiple. not paying less because earnings are going down they don't want to pay for the multiple. the problem. >> finally oil. recovered a bit after awfully close to 72. >> a tough game to play. is oil a sign that the global economy is slowing down? or is it really just classic supply/demand issue out there? a really cuff one to call now. fortunately oil's only 4% of the s&p. energy, 4% of the s&p 500. doesn't drag a lot along with it. it's an interesting question about what the global economy is looking like right now with oil, what it's telling us. happy about the yeelgdsields on oil very much intact. there are a dramatic cnbc viewers hear it all the time love the 3.5% reits and 3.5% utilities, and they love their

high yields, oil plays that are out there, and the fact that nobody's cutting those yields right now. >> 200 points to the down side for the dow. watch the ten year getting to powell tomorrow. that does it for "closing bell." let's get to "overtime" with mike santoli. >> end of regulation. old navy ringing "closing bell" at the new york stock exchange. it rally, hitting pause taking a half step back and attention turns to wyoming and fed chair powell's jackson hole speech tomorrow morning. nasdaq leading declines down more than 1.7% on the day. that's the scorecard on wall street but the action's just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm mike santoli. a big hour of earnings coming your way with results from bill holdings intuit, raw stores