to be last cycle. >> got you. david, chief u.s. economist at goldman sachs, appreciate it. we'll be listening along with you tomorrow for what chair powell has to say. all right, on a day when the s&p 500 was down 0.9%, and we await the feddal jackson hole that's going to do it for "overtime" right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. on the clock. fed chair powell just hours away from his must-see speech in jackson hole, wyoming. will he tip his hand on rate cuts in september? will he spell out how many cuts we'll see by the end of the year? and how will the markets react? we're live in wyoming, straight ahead. >> plus, crude now hovering near lows of the year. f should investors bet on prices falling more from here? we're going to debate it. and later, a throwback

thursday for a couple of covid darlings. peloton and zoom on the climb again, but can the duo ever recapture the magic they had during the pandemic? i'm sara eisen, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- on courtney garcia, karen finerman, guy adami, and tim seymour. second negative session in three. the nasdaq tumbling almost 30 points. worst day since august 5th, when we had that big selloff. the ze s&p and the dow also falling. that's coming ahead of jerome powell's speech in jackson hole. steve liesman is in wyoming, pregaming. steve, so, what can we expect from tomorrow? >> sara, hey, yeah, fed chair powell's speech tomorrow, here in jackson hole, likely to affirm, i think, the market's expectations for coming rate cuts based on greater competence in inflation, heading back to target.

and some growing concern about the employment side of the fed's dual man date. isi writing, we expect fed chair powell will use his jackson hole speech to explain why the fed is now sufficiently confident inflation is heading back durably to 2% to begin dialing back rates soon, and provide a basic framework for the cutting cycle ahead. the philadelphia fed president asserting that here on cnbc. >> it was all inflation, inflation, inflation for awhile. now, we're starting to see things, the balance of risk getting more equalized. so, we do need to take more into account when it comes to the labor market, for sure. >> what does that mean, taking more into account? >> well, i think it means this september, we need to start a process of moving rates down. >> now, i expect powell to leave markets guessing about a 25 or 50 in september. he's going to be held back by the idea there's another inflation and employment repor

before that meeting. markets are likely to walk away clear that the fed is entering a new regime with lingering uncertainty about how quickly and how aggressively it adopts those changes. >> there are high hopes that he will signal that the cut is coming. i wonder, though, if there's scope for disappointment, steve, because he can't really precommit, say, to 50 basis points or even 25 basis points. there's just no payoff for him doing that before a big jobs report. >> no. he can't precommit to that, as you said, with the two reports coming. but i think the fed has sort of committed to the idea of this new regime. i think they did that in july, they affirmed that in their minutes. we heard that from other fed officials that we've moved away from the idea that it's just all about inflation. it's now about both sides of the mandate. and to be balanced, sara, about both sides of the mandate, you've got to come back some measure from the fed's restrictive policy, with a question of, how far do you come

back to the point where you're ready, if -- powell likes to use the phrase, the fed is well positioned. is the fed well positioned to address the employment side of the mandate if it does indeed weaken? it has work to do there. and that's why the market is very aggressive in what it expects the fed to do. >> steve, it's karen. the news we had yesterday about the adjustment to the employment numbers, so, how do we think about that, i mean, should we have thought, oh, all along, things are worse than we thought and yet the economy still did well anyway? how do we think about that, and does that really just open the door for the fed, wide open, even if some of the inflation data or the jobs data, updated, i guess, is better? >> well, i've asked a bunch of fed officials about that here, and nobody's telling me it's a big factor in their thinking. first of all, it's old data, it ended in march 2024. i went back and did a piece you can read on cnbc.com that looked

at how this time compares to the last time they had a big adjustment like this, 2009, and the 2009, karen, a lot of other stuff was tanking. jobless claims were through the roof, the economy was in the tank, it was already contracting, so, this time, there's nothing like that. there's some interesting questions about whether or not immigration played a factor in making this number larger than it was. i don't see anything else in the data that makings me think there is a major problem or weakness right now in the jobs mark. on balance, it makes people think things are softer than they were, but what are we talking about here? the fact that we did 242,000, what we thought we did, and now we did 174,000 average per month in the 12 months ending in march 2024? i don't think that's a reason for a wholesale reassessment of the past or the present. >> okay, steve, thank you. we'll look for you bright and early tomorrow morning from jackson hole. our steve liesman. guy, how are you feeling about tomorrow? >> feeling great you're here,

sara, welcome. get that out of the way. >> love joining you guys. >> listen, this is important, but the fact that you're here is fascinating, because there's a bank of japan governor that's testifying in front of parliament about their rate hikes and what it did to the market. that's something the market should absolutely be watching. >> going to face a little heat. >> more than a little heat. if you think about what's happened with their currency, with their bond market, with their economy, a lot of heat. with that said, do they stay the course, are they going to continue to raise rates? or do they succumb to the pressure? that might be the main event. the fed is a main event, as well. i'll say this, though, the fact that warren buffett now owns almost $300 billion of t-bills suggests that he's betting that rates are going to go lower. i think he thinks rates are going lower because things are going down. >> the economy. >> yes. >> that's not factored in. tim, dollar strengthened today. treasury yields came up a little bit today and stocks sold off. i wonder how you think that means markets are positioning ahead of powell.

>> well, they had to. and as you know, that move in the currency, the dollar index is down almost 4.5% from those highs july 1, that yen has been quietly strengthening. and i would make an argument it's been relatively positive that the yen has been appreciating as it needs to. but i think today was kind of revenge of the dollar rates, oil, you know, handful of other things. on a chance to evaluate that, you know, s&p's had a 10.5% move from the intraday lows on august 5th to where we were on an intraday high. semiconductors did 26%, 27% from that, you know, that intraday low. so, the market's had, again, another one of these -- this is, you know, historic run in the middle of what's been a longer historic run, and what was interesting about today's action is, you saw equal weighed be effectively flat. you look at s&p value, or, the spyv, that was absolutely flat on the day. so, some of this rotation exists. i think as we've all framed,

both with steve's conversation and how we're looking at the markets, september 6th is the day. i don't -- >> that's jobs. >> the fed is always going to be critical. that's the jobs number. >> that's the jobs number before the fed meeting. i wonder if there's some scope or disappointment, because the market has gotten -- >> sell the news. yes. i don't think we're going to get any comfort in the 100, but why should he move quickly? i think that also these 25 basis points, i don't know how much that really makes a difference. why back himself into a corner? i think 50 would be more of a message he wants to send right now. i think some of the earnings, i think nvidia will make a difference in the market. i know it's sort of its own thing, but so much revolves around it that disappointing number from them, i think, would be a much bigger deal to the market than 25, 50 -- >> nvidia tops the fed?

>> at the moment. >> out next week on earnings. courtney, what do you think about powell? how are you positioned? >> i think a lot of investors are waiting for what he's going to say tomorrow, but i don't think it's going to be anything that overwhelming. probably going to hear, oh, we're data depen debidentpenden numbers coming out before they deal with interest rates. so, i don't think you should trade based off what they're saying. rates are coming down, probably a quarter basis point, but the bigger question is what's happening after that. and i think that is the question, are rates going to come down as much as you're saying. i do agree, rates are probably coming down short-term. i think that's where you do want to make sure you are positioned as an investor. >> a lot depends on what's going to happen with the economy. i mean, the fed would cut more if the economy weakens and we've been in the place where the economic data is coming in not too bad, and the market's rallying off of that, at a time when the fed is about to cut rates and we've been in this sort of sweet spot where it looks like they're going to pull

off a soft landing and i guess i wonder how much that can go on. tim? >> i'm sorry, you were talking to me. i think that sweet spot is something that markets have yes, priced in, and i think as we look at this earnings season, it's a case of where margins have really been part of the story. we're going to talk about a couple of companies today where i think you had a mixed view on what margins are. but that sweet spot both for capex in the hyperscalers, nvidia, and what that's meant in terms of the entire market cap of the market is something that i think is really the question. i think -- as -- i think everyone is saying here, the fed is going to be between 25 and 50, i think 50 would also be more than they need to do. but it does get back to what you're paying for stocks, and i think that's really where we're going to end up. we're seeing that bifurcation, we're seeing that rotation in the value. that's really the story, because the market has priced this fed in. it's already priced in.

>> right, the question is, has it gone too far, which it did earlier this year. >> no question. >> and had to sort of walk it back, got very excited. >> interesting you talk about the economy and it's great that peter will be on in a second, but there's parts of the economy, the service side is doing well. the manufacturing side, not so much. and i think that's sort of the problem that's been created by this entire thing. i'll say this, as well. and i know you listen and pay attention to these things. the commentary out of a swath of retailers, some of the restaurants, they're all pretty much saying the same thing. and that should be concerning. now, the market's discounting it all, but they need to pay attention. >> they're saying softening, softer growth, value-seeking consumer, but they're not saying recession. >> nobody is going to say that. you know this, sara, nobody is going to overtly say. that but below the surface, there are things that should be concerning. the number of people working two jobs now in the country is an all-time high. delinquency rates are at ten-year high. so, a lot of things without question to be worried about. i say this all the time, peter is the economist, i'm not smart

enough nor humorless enough to be one. but if you look under the surface, there are things to be worried about. >> you think the market is overestimating? >> on the upside, yes. >> let's bring in peter more from what to expect from the fed and the markets. he's a cnbc contributor. so, what will you be listening for tomorrow in this speech? which, by the way, we get in a text. we don't get to see it on camera in jackson hole. we just get to see him walk out onto the deck. >> because there's no question and answer afterwards, he can be very careful with how he words this. and i think to your point earlier, he's -- i don't think he's going to put himself out there. he'll acknowledge that they'll probably cult in september, by just saying, we're shifting our attention more to the employment side than inflation. that's sort of an endorse. f for that september cut. he's not going to tell you 25 or 50 and not going to tell you what he's going to do after that. >> they don't know. >> they don't know, exactly. when powell wakes up every day, he's trying to figure out things just as we are. so, the way the market has

priced in a lot of cuts over the next year, that implies a certain economic scenario. and i think the only way you get 200 basis points of cuts is if the economy is really weak. not because inflation is just staying at 2%. so -- >> is the bond market telling us that it's -- to guy's point, weaker than the equity market thinks? >> i think it's implying that weakness n the sense of they think the market -- i'm sorry the economy is going to need that level of interest rate cuts through next year. but i think tomorrow can end up being a total nonevent. and i agree with you that nvidia is more important than what powell says, and i think we got evidence of that over the last couple of weeks, where the economic data actually mattered more for the markets directly, not in terms of its implications for the fed and the earnings from the big names had much more of an impact on the markets than the mfed also, as people reassessed the a.i. trade. >> my counterpoint to that is

that, just wait for a jobs report that comes in worse than expected, or significantly better than expected and it's all going to be about gaming the fed and if market pricing is off. >> well, yeah, that's going to complicate things for sure. but i think that payroll number, even though we learned that, why are we trading off one payroll number if it can be revised five times before we get the final number, but yes that can determine if they cultt 25 or 5 in december. >> i'm sorry. we will see powell. he will be live, and we'll take that on cnbc. >> i love seeing you interview various leaders around the world of, like, what are you going to do? so, just to your question, though, if we get some data, how wide do you think that swath is between, oh, it wasn't great, but it's good enough, where they just proceed anyway? how out of bounds does it have to be to change this course that they seem to be on? >> i think it's more of a trajectory. it was august 1st, we had the

disappointing claims number. and the market sold off, so, to me, that was the first signal that the market was focused trading off the data, rath thaern what it means for the fed, and that was followed by the payroll number that was weak. >> can i counter that, though? it seems to me that that yen carry trade was already starting to unwind -- >> well, that exaggerated everything. >> exactly. >> yes. >> right, so, maybe that was a standalone, with no other big unwind, it wouldn't have been as dramatic. >> right. but that thursday/friday, we sold off. that was sort of the setup for that monday -- >> i'm saying it was already starting to happen. >> no question. and it started to happen the day that the boj raised interest rates. because while many thought they would hike, it was still 50/50 in terms of market pricing. >> so, ultimately -- first of all, have we worked through that whole carry trade stuff? unwind? >> that's the big question. >> guy's going to be up late watching the testimony -- >> no question.

>> before the lawmakers at the boj. >> so, for -- it was very difficult to figure out how big the trade was to begin with. so, those that are forecasting how much is left, i don't know whether it's true or not. 50%, 75% is what people have said, but just to have that sort of leverage that can -- get such a violent move, particularly in the nikkei, was rather astonishing, but that trade is either going back on, because he says, i'm not going to hike again, or, the governmental pressure, as you mentioned, is so intense that he tells the market, hey, i know you had your hissy fit, but i need to contain inflation and a weak yen is not good for us. and do expect another hike by the end of the year. >> all right, peter, thank you very much. it's good to have you here. so, courtney, final word to you on just the positioning here of the markets into powell and how the market is priced for rate cuts and if there's a risk there that it could be wrong. >> yeah, i think the cuts are priced in at this point.

i think we're going to want to hear what the fed says. but i think what's been really positive to see is the breadth that you're seeing in the markets. it's no longer the seven companies that are dragging the whole markets higher. two 90% updays this month. if the entire markets do well going forward, it's a stronger case that the markets can continue as a whole, rather than just this a.i. trade, which we've been talking a lot about. >> all right. we do have a news alert right now on paramount. and the deal with sky dance. cnbc's julia boorstin here with the latest in the saga. now what, julia? >> the latest in the saga, "the wall street journal" reporting that skydance has sent a letter to paramount special committee demanding they stop negotiating with edgar bronfman. i reached out to sky dance, the said no comment, but according to a source familiar with the contents of the letter there are two criteria for the go shop period to be extended.

one is that this new offer be a clearly superior bid, and two, that there was a procedural error in the special committee's notification of skydance about this new offer, and in this letter, the company saying it failed to explicitly extend the go shop period. so, it seems like this letter has been sent, according to my source, and we're waiting for comment from skydance. we will also reach out to edgar and his company for comment, as well. just the late nest the paramount saga. back over to you. >> okay, julia, thank you. keep us posted on what you hear. now, we're going to move to chicago, big night there, vice president kamala harris preparing to formally accept the democratic party's presidential nomination. for more on what we can expect to hear policy-wise in her speech tonight, let's bring in eamon javers. what are you hearing? >> hey there, sara. i wouldn't hold my breath w waiting for a lot of economic policy in the speech tonight.

this has been about vibes and emotion and rallying the democratic party faithful all week long. a lot of that is going to continue tonight. look at some of the speakers we will be hearing from, starting with elizabeth warren, so, i think that you will expect to see some economic policy from her, but we're going to hear from mark kelly, we're going to hear from the michigan governor gretchen whitmer. and on and on. the keynote, absolutely, is going to be vice president harris herself. and this is an opportunity for her on a big, big national stage to really introduce herself to the american people, who haven't had a lot of exposure to kamala harris as a public speaker, and really as a public figure, because of the nature of the vice president si itself. i would expect to hear her highlighting words like you see on the screen there, freedom has been a big buzz word for the dnc all week. joy has been a big buzz word for the dnc all week. i expect some biographical details in her speech tonight about who she is and what her values are. in terms of economic policy, though, sara, i think if you are

going to hear anything, it's going to be about price levels, and how hard they are to deal with for american consumers. that's one thing that the democratic party is really sensitive to. they understand that that criticism around inflation really hurt joe biden, they want to signal that kamala harris has an economic plan that's going to do something about prices for americans. i would expect to hear her talk about that tonight, but i wouldn't expect a whole lot of nitty-gritty detail economically, sara. >> her prescription to that has been this federal ban on price gouging, which i feel like has been panned by most economists, even on the left. >> you know, there's almost not enough substance in it to pan it, but there's not much to it. they are saying they would authorize the ftc to investigate price gouging. no mechanics there how that would happen. no definition, even, of what price gouging is. how they would come up with a determination of what price gouging is and when to investigate and when not to. so, without any of the real detail there, you can't say

there's a plan there that you can really affirmatively pan, other than saying that there's rhetoric there about price gouging and there's an effort there to blame corporations for high prices, because the administration, of course, doesn't want to take the blame for themselves. >> right. all right, eamon, thank you. in chicago. eamon javers. we'll be watching. karen, what you're hearing from the dnc, are there implications for what you're doing in the market? >> no. we're not hearing anything on any kind of policy, you know, that's sort of -- that's not what they're trying to do right now. they're just trying to, you know, be as positive as they can and sort of build up kamala harris, we don't know very much about details at all. but i think it's interesting how both parties are aggressive for the ftc. that -- i would expect that the republicans would have a different take on that, but they don't. j.d. vance, you know, went out of his way to say the one person doing a good job in the biden administration is lina khan,

that was surprising. so, there's that. and i think she's trying to move more to the center on fracking, on energy, so, i think there's sort of oddly converging, except for taxes. that's a very big -- >> right, the tax -- >> the tax plan that's come out. >> unrealized gains -- >> there's no way that flies. >> raising the tax rate and then getting rid of capital gains for those that earn more than $1 million. >> i don't think those are -- i think those are sort of wish list kind of things, but i think the corporate tax rate moving is something that could -- that could happen. but i think so much of it depends on what's the rest of the ticket? if you have the president, you have the senate goes republican and the house -- i think there will be grid lock. >> listen, understand the composition -- that's everything, right? but just, let's play it out for a second. you're going to hate to hear this, but the reason why gold's done as well as it has, i think, is predicated on everything we hear on one side of the aisle

and everything we hear on the other. if trump were to be re-elected, the tax cuts, i think that's inflationary, that's why gold goes higher. and everything you've heard on the other side suggests the same type of thing. you throw on top of that other central banks, we mentioned bank of japan, and i think that's why the gold trade is far from over. >> why do i hate to hear that? >> i've been around you a long time. come on, sara. we've had this conversation. >> i'm not a gold bug. >> i'm not a bug. look at what it's done. >> gold up today. i'll give you that. >> thank you. when we come back, a buzz kill grewing in shares of william sonoma. the numbers that have the high end home goods retailer spiraling, next. plus, euphoria for crocs, as a blockbuster deal is inked with the company. we're going to try this one on for size, next.

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powering possibilities. welcome back to "fast money." a buzz kill on william sonoma. the home furnishing company dropping 10% after says it expects revenue to be lower over the year. tim, this is one of your names, it's been a big outperformer, i think, we should say, going into today, and what's been a tough market for home furnishing.

>> it has, and the margins that they reported today were fantastic. they've lowered the top line, and i think they've pretty much said it's going to be really rough going into 25. and i think in fact 25, the street somewhere in the negative comp. it just gets back to the fact that their best days at least from the covid and the pent-up demand, nesting, et cetera, i think are on pause for the foreseeable. and how do you pay what's still a premium to the five-year on this, when i actually think -- the company's probably going to be flat on earnings over the next two to three years. i think this is an example of one of these -- put them in whatever bucket you want, this is a discretionary company, i think you're going to see the stock test the covid highs of '21, which is closer to 100 bucks. i think it's been the best of times and this is a perfect example of a consumer discretionary company where i think people are maxed out, and i think the valuation needs to

pull back. we're clearly hearing that the top line will. and i think at some point, margins are coming down. margins were fine on this number, but they're coming down. >> they raised the margin, guidance. >> yes. >> so, are you out, tim? >> yeah, no, i -- i'm out. and i'm not shorting this name, but i think you're going to get this stock closer to 100 than you're going -- before you see it at 160 again. >> on the other hand, they have grown share and what's been a tough market. >> did you just do on the other hand? you did that. >> is that a game we play on "fast money" -- >> no, it's a morning show thing, i think. >> jon fortt on the other thing. >> the stock topped out in gins down 4% year over year, that's good. but if you have declining sales, if comps are going to continue to go down, it's going to be hard for them to keep in terms of margins. i think that's what the street is trying to get ahead of.

it's relatively cheap. but that's not the point here. if they're slowing down, the market will sell first. i think tim's right. you're going to get it closer to 100. >> on the other hand, their comps have been weak for the last year and a half and the stock has gone up because they preserved profitability. >> look at the stock since april -- yes, you're right. 100%. but since the spring, the stock has been an underperform up on what's been a very good tape, on the other hand. >> do you have an opinion on this one? >> i'migued by it. i don't own it. i think that the promise of lower rates, i think, helps. it's going to take awhile. i mean, that third 25, 50 basis points doesn't do enough. but you saw home depot traded on what weren't great numbers, and it's the idea that, okay, homes will start turning over and that would flow through. >> buying stuff for homes again. >> exactly. and since they've taken share, that puts them in a decent spot. when we come back, the crude reality of the oil patch. the technicals, the geopolitics,

and where the price is headed next. plus, crocs adding a little hollywood heat to its portfolio. sydney sweeney innking a deal with one of the company's fastest growing brands. the details and stock reaction, next. you're watching asmoy," "ft ne live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we'll be right back. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria.

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welcome back to "fast money." time for the call of the day on crocs. shares closing a percent higher in a down tape after williams trading upgraded the stock from hold to buy. actress sydney sweeney was tapped at a brand ambassador for the brand's hey dude brand. it will put a much-needed spotlight on the brand. guy, you look like a hey dude guy. it's a mix between sneakers and boat shoes. do you know what they look like? >> a mix between sneakers and boat shoes. that sounds like vans. >> no. >> they're ripping off an existing product. no, listen. this actually -- i will tell you, on valuation, you can actually make a pretty compelling case for this stock. karen probably has it in front of her, maybe 9.5, 10 times.

it looks like they're getting it at a decent point. but if you ever think you will see me in any of those types of shoes, you will sorely -- >> not even if sydney sweeney reps them? >> stop for a second. do you think i know who he or she is? i'm dead serious. >> she's the it girl right now. >> yeah. big break on "euphoria." >> i loved that. my favorite movie. >> oh, my god. >> wait, seriously? >> she's the "white lotus" daughter -- >> i saw the second season in sicily. >> she's kind of a thing right now. go on social media. >> oh. >> courtney? >> it's hard to -- i mean, it is hard to find these kind of brad partnerships that lift stocks, but -- >> it's a big name they have, and i this ink the hope is, thee going to get more on the young consumer. if you do look at crocs, i don't buy crocs, i had a hard time understanding this, but it's

something here in the u.s. growth is up 3%. and abroad, that's really where they have a lot of growth momentum. so, i mean, looking at the numbers of it, i think it's compelling. and this is a big name, sydney sweeney, i think that could potentially drive some sales. >> you know who sydney sweeney is, right tim? >> ah -- zero. i mean, i'm not quite the boomer that guy is, but i mean, i'm -- i'm clueless on this. i'll tell you this, there's 19 pairs of crocs in my house. they're not mine. and i -- it already is a younger demo, so, the question for me ultimately is, where is this company going to continue to grow? i get these types of partnerships are very important. i look at the company and say, you know, 12.5, 13 times, not expensive, but i think this is a case where you're going to start to see, you know, high single digits is where they've been growing eps. let's see. again, i think you're under some pressure here. >> karen? you're the retail queen. >> well, i don't have this one,

and it -- what they both said is true, though i do know who sydney sweeney is. "white lotus," i love that, but that's a whole other thing. it is -- >> it tend she tends to take of clothes -- >> what? hold on a second. stop. hold on. that's why you thought i would know? i mean, think about that. insulted. >> it's not crazy expensive. i looked at it years ago, and they had -- they had an inventory issue, ended up not being a good trade, and i thought, all right, that's off my screen. it's not expensive. balance sheet is in good shape. this is very high profile. they get a lot of free pub publicity. expensive, they paid her. but it's interesting. all right, when we come back, some afterhours action in cava. the fast casual stock in the green afterhours. those numbers and the latest from the call coming for you next. plus, is the energy trade in for a crude awakening? what the technicals and a top expert are saying as oil flurts

with losing i losing its gains year. for "fast money" coming up. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

now to oil. hovering near its low of the year. wti down nearly 5% this week, and now up just 2% since january. brent falling more than 3% this week, and yesterday, it actually closed negative on the year. earlier, the chart master put out a note saying he believes crude is going to continue to go lower from here. the chart is showing what he calls a long downward trajectory. here now to take us inside the crude complex is whahalima crof. she's in jackson hole, wyoming, site of the fed summit. so, halima, do you expect oil to keep falling from here? >> i think the key thing to watch, sara, is really what happens with, you know, concerns over chinese demand. i mean, chinese demand concerns have weighed on this market, as well as broader concerns about the macro outlook. everyone is going to be watching what happens with the fed. one thing that really is not factoring into oil prices right now is geopolitical risk.

i mean, that has really evaporated from the market. there has been some speculation over the past couple of weeks that we would see some type of iranian and hezbollah response to the israeli assassinations, but that has not materialized yet. so, i think the market is really refocused on these demand concerns, and key things to watch is really what happens with opec in the coming weeks. they start bringing barrels back, they take a pause on adding barrels into this market. but right now, it's really a focus -- has been a focus on demand concerns. >> helima, it's tim. thank you for joining us. i would argue that oil prices have been remarkably stable over the last two years. carter does great work, but i think it's been an extraordinary quiet period for oil price volatility. can you talk about that? and is opec really in control? because between geopolitics, fed uncertainty, and we know opec's focused on that, oil prices have been in a very tight band.

>> well, i think opec has been -- and i would -- when i talk about opec, i would say saudi arabia in particular has been, you know, remarkably disciplinedn't and you bring up the fed rate policy, i mean, one of the reasons why the saudis in june said that they were not adding barrels back now, even though people had more robust demand forecast was uncertainty over the trajectory of rate policy. the saudis have been really cautious about trying -- they've been really wanting to avoid oversupply in the market, and even in june, when we had that sort of taper tantrum, when everyone got very freaked out when they came out with the unwind schedule for their voluntary cuts, the saudis came out and said, look, we're going to be very judicious about how we add barrels back. so, if we get clear indications that the market cannot absorb additional barrels, we're not going to put barrels on the market. and that is a contrast, frankly, to what we saw in 2015, when they basically were full steam ahead with a market share war. we don't have that policy now in

place, so, even if they were to add, you know, several hundred thousand barrels back into the market, if the market couldn't take that, i think that we'd see a reversal of policy. so, i think the saudis have been very, very cautious about how they've conducted oil policy. >> over the last year or so, a lot of m&a in the space. warren buffett owns 30% of oxy now. why can't the energy patch, which valuations you can make a compelling case, they're better run than they've ever been before, why can't the stocks get out of their own way? >> well, i don't cover stocks in particular, but you know, one of the things we talk about with m&a, and it's an interesting question about the resilience of u.s. production. u.s. production, 13.4 million barrels, and there have been some question about if you had more m&a, would you see more restrained u.s. production, but essentially now, with m&a driving is sector, is that

leading to the elevated u.s. production numbers? the u.s. story has been remarkably resilient. >> is there an election play here, helima? both candidates speak about energy very differently. >> well, this is interesting, sara, because condition candida one way on the election trail, but when they have togovern when they sort of get mugged by reality, i mean, look at how the biden administration pivoted on energy policy. certainly kamala harris ran to the left of president biden. she called for a fracking ban when she was attorney general. she sued to stop offshore fracking. but she has not pivoted back to the center. she's walked back the fracking ban. you don't hear a lot of conversation at this point about climate policy from the harris campaign. so, i think they're very focused on winning a very important state which is pennsylvania, and if you want to win pennsylvania, it's really hard to win with an anti-fracking position with that

state. >> all right, good point. helima, thank you very much. from jackson hole tonight. when we come back, cava on the move after reporting earnings. the very latest from the call, next. plus, a covid throwback. shares of peloton and zoom both surging today. can these lockdown darlings mount a monster comeback? we're going to debate that straight ahead.

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welcome back to "fast money." earnings alert on cava. the stock surging after reporting a top and bottom line beat. also raising full-year guidance. building on already strong gains, kate rogers. >> sara, that's right. beats on the top and bottom lines for q-2. same-store sales, a huge beat, up 14.4%, better than estimates of up 7.9%. >> another rarity in growing traffic in this environment. the change, traffic up nearly 10%. prices up almost 5%. profit margin of 26.5%. that was roughly in line with analyst estimates, suggesting that the big earnings beat was more tied to the restaurant's strong traffic and sales performance. the company also raising its guidance for full-year same-store sales, profit margin, and ebitda. the ceo said steak is significantly outperforming

expectations, and weighed in on the value wars on the call, saying, quote, consumers have been frustrated and fatigued by higher prices over the past few years. the wave of price discounting in response to these trends is now being referred to as the value wars. we believe that's a misnomer. price is the cost of a meal, while value is its worth and driven by a combination of attributes beyond the headline price. he's going to join "squawk box" tomorrow morning for much more on the quarter. so, tune in for that. back over to you. >> okay, kate, thank you very much. kate rogers. karen, you've been intrigued, i know. >> intrigued. but that doesn't mean i own it. it's the most spectacular growth story since chipotle. the same-store sales numbers were guyigantic. so, this is sort of chipotle 2.0. chipotle is one i never got onboard, because it was too expensive all the time. i'm going to make the same mistake here. >> is it already too late?

>> i mean, it's -- it's almost a nonmath mall call number, how crazy this valuation is, but they do seem to be methodically moving along with their plan, and it seems to be working, and zoe's acquisition was great, they've converted them into the more efficient cava models. and it's working. i know i'm going to make the same mistake twice. >> courtney? >> yeah and talking about the efficiency, you're seeing the technology drivers here. one of the key drivers is the profit margins going forward. i saw this with sweet green, one of their competitors, went to one of those stores where you are seeing the automation. you are amazed at the efficiencies. and they are benefiting from that. plus, they have the higher income clientele. also, up 150% year to date, i mean, i think the question is, is the bar set too high? and i think that would be the one argument i have against it, but you know, oiit does look attractive. >> cava shares up afterhours

here. when we come back, we're sheltering in place like it's 2020. two pandemic darlings rocking. peloton and zoom. question is, should you come knocking? 'rgog bakt wn after the break. why do couples a sleep number smart bed? i need help with her snoring.

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welcome back to "fast money." is it 2020? these covid darlings, peloton and zoom, flying high. peloton soaring 35% after reporting a sales increase for the first time in nine quarters. the connected fitness company saying it is trending towards profitability as its turnaround plan takes over. the stock is down 90% since the pan pandemic. and then there's zoom, climbing 13%. the company raising its full-year guidance. so, on this throwback thursday, we thought we'd play a game of would you rather. peloton or zoom. tim? start us off. >> yeah, well, zoom, for sure. peloton can go with your go pro and sit in the same closet. with zoom, first of all, bookings grew 9%. the top line overall grew about 1%. enterprise grew 3.5 kt. you know, the question is always going to be, why do you need more than what zoom is billing

more for? other words, their workplace platform is something that i think is still, you know, to be determined whether there's real demand out there, but the company is not expensive. that free cash flow generation is a very, very high margin business, and i kind of like it here, in fact, i have a small position, which i've had for probably, i don't know, a year. kind of riding around this level of grinding out on the chart, but these kinds of numbers are going to give the street an ability to upgrade the stock. >> would you rather, zoom or pell london? >> zoom, not even close. those were great numbers, the balance sheet is great. i agree with everything tim said. the growth is great. very confident. this is -- i feel dumb not having owned it before today. >> well, i saw kathy wood actually sold out of zoom after she was very bullish on the way up. different times. both of them well off their pandemic hhsig, obviously. up next, we're going to hear your final trades. stay with us.

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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> sara, thank you for joining us. coca-cola, let's go right down the fairway. in line with its five-year average on pe and i think margins are increasing. thank you. >> courtney? >> exxon. a lot of the energy companies can do well even if oil prices are lower, and it's something you want to make sure you're in for the long time. >> karen? >> sara, thank you for being here. >> a lot of fun. always. >> we're fun. >> i laugh a lot. >> okay, good. so, final trade, dell call spread going into earnings next week. >> oh. guy? >> only show on the network that

goes from bank of japan to a scantly sclad sydney sweeney, who i just learned is a fan of the show. >> google it, guy. do you have a final trade? >> marathon. >> sara, thank you. >> it was a blt.as "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach. explain credit days like today happen. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. the newfound rationality continues. this market's punishing the weak while rewarding the strong