friday, august 23, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ good friday morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nakz market site in times site. i'm kelly evans along can joe kernen. becky and andrew are off today. >> that is green. >> it is brat green. >> it's a beautiful green. >> thank you. >> i already had an argument in makeup. >> over what color? >> is it kelly green? by definition today it's kelly green but is that the actual shade of green than kelly? >> this is more neon. like cnbc green. >> i think it's money green. >> money green. >> because we've got -- we'll talk about the guy who prints all the money. >> oh, we are. it's in honor of powell. >> did you think about any of

this? not really. >> there's the brat people going on around summer. i'm not aware but some aware so the summer is almost over so i thought, well, maybe -- >> if you're going to do it. >> can't do that like in november. >> no, i don't think so. u.s. -- do we have green for futures this hour? >> we better. >> let's see if we do. looks like the dow would open 135 points higher so similar gains up 27 for the s&p. these are actually quite sizable. >> especially the nasdaq. >> up 142 yesterday. it was the underperforming yesterday if we look at the way we closed yesterday afternoon. treasuries on the rebound because of the flash pmi data in the morning. jobless claims okay. you can see the ten-year 3.85 so a holding pattern and the two-year above 4%. >> more here. this could be like a show on one of these streaming networks, something like -- what's the name of that one, i don't know? skydance media is accusing paramount special committee of directors of breaching the terms

of its deal by extending the go shop period according to a "wall street journal" report. they say the bid is not as defined in the transaction agreement. therefore, the company shouldn't have extended the window and paramouch paramount was extending the go shop period. paramount reserves to do that in the future and bronfman declined to comment. talking about succession. succession much more interesting. maybe this is getting interesting. there's been a lot of twists and turns, but all i take away from it is how sad it is that -- that the redstone family didn't sell this five years ago. >> well, and also to your point,

what are the next chapters going to be? what is the -- done a lot of reporting on this but other than massively cutting back expenses. >> right. >> what's the real vision here, and to your point -- >> for any company, anyone in this business, but especially one that doesn't have anything else and theme parks. doesn't have broadband. >> yeah. >> what else? there are some companies that are better positioned and everybody says netflix is best positioned. >> we talked about the stock. >> we did, yeah. >> and i'm on record. when it was 180, i said if i could buy stuff which we can't, would i have mortgaged the house, unlike you and your ibonds, i would have mortgaged the house and put every dime. >> the ibonds. >> you love those. >> no, actually the time -- the ibond craze because i've -- i sleep with the lights on. >> you do. i sleep with more than one light on. >> i said, look, if interest rates come down, you know, they are not going to be -- again, i

sleep with the lights on. >> put $10,000 in and make almost $800 in a year. >> no, listen. >> bitcoin, netflix. all right. >> look at shares of cava. the mediterranean chain is soaring after they increased their outlook. comp sales are up 14.4% and they expect the restaurant chain that flock to the new grilled steak offering during the quarter despite the higher price tag and raised prices in january less than 3%. no other plans for an increase this year. the ceo brett schulman will join us. i'm back in a cava moment. we're early adopters and i didn't go for a while and i had the steak two days ago. >> i went once and i see why

people like it. >> it's good. >> it's really good. >> i love mexican food. >> i do, too. >> it's like -- it's like wrapped in some thing and it's spice, and, you know, a lot of flavor and chicken. >> people who compare it to chipotle, and i still feel like chipotle has broad other appeal. >> not to me. no, taco bell. if i'm -- that's why they stole the guy from taco bell who is now at starbucks. >> to his credit he did not, you know, worsen the quality of the chipotle food while he was there. he did not go the route that some of the purists might have worried about. he understood how to keep the culture what it is. >> there are taco bell people and chipotle people. >> like a dunkin'/starbucks. >> i don't know if cava can go as mainstream as chipotle. >> i don't know. >> but we'll talk to them about it. >> developing story in canada, the rail lockout now halfway over workers at canadian national who are going to return to work today, hours after the

canadian government moved to end that rail stoppage which was unprecedented, but the union says the stoppage at canadian pacific kansas city will continue unless canadian labor officials stepped in. those officials, the union and the company are all set to meet today. >> that was quick. ends potentially. vice president kamala harris accepted her party's nomination for president last night at the democratic national convention in chicago. megan costella is there and joins us with the highlights. i couldn't tell. no surprise guest after all of that. >> after all that discussion of a surprise guest, was it going to be beyonce? was it going to be taylor swift? we got roy cooper introducing vice president harris but it wasn't the fan faire everyone was expecting. just a few miles away from the united center where folks are breaking down after the fourth and final night last night but despite no surprise guest the energy was as high as any night we've seen it this week. still some celebrities in

attendance. the chicks performed the national anthem and kerry washington was the host and pink performed with her daughter on stage. also heard from a range of electled officials all the way from senator elizabeth warren on the left. she teared up as she got a standing ovation to former congressman to adam kizinger on the right, a republican member of congress. of course, the spotlight was on vice president harris herself. she was formally accepting that nomination, and she used her acceptance speech to once again introduce herself to the american people. she focused a lot on her record, especially her record before she got to washington, a part that most people aren't as familiar with. take a listen to this. >> i took on the big banks, delivered $20 billion from middle class families who faced foreclosure and helped pass a homeowner bill of rights, one of the first of its kind in the nation. >> reporter: now harris also spoke about growing up as part of a middle class family, and

she used that biography to connect the policy agenda which last night she was calling quote a new way forward. she was also looking to strike a contrast between her vision and what we've seen from former president trump. >> he wants to put in a national sales tax call it a trump tax, that would raise prices on middle class families by almost $4,000 a year. instead of a trump tax hike, we will pass a middle class tax cut that will benefit more than 100 million americans. >> now for a speefrp tch that w expected to be light on policy issues, we touched on a number of issues including nato and ukraine and the need for the u.s. to be a global leader in agence and nbc news did talk with her just briefly after her speech. she said she was feeling good

but she also said now on to tomorrow, a nod to just how much work democrats still feel they have left to do between now and november. and now guys, one last point. we were hearing from former president trump throughout the eke last night. he was live posting on truth social as harris was speaking. he was accusing harris of, quote, gaslighting america and did question that why for all her policy ideas, why she wasn't implementing these in the three and a half years she's been vice president. guys? >> from what i heard, did she also defend israel's right -- how did that part of the speech go over? >> she touched on israel and gaza, and it is interesting. this was supposed to be a hot button issue this week. there were protests every day over gaza, but it wasn't nearly what anybody expected, and so that part of the speech did go through. she spoke about that policy -- that foreign policy agenda which i think was a surprise to most people. people really did expect it in the arena and part of something. heard a lot of commentary of people in realtime, for someone who doesn't have much foreign policy experience at all, she's been a lawyer her career, a

prosecutor, she doesn't have much foreign policy experience but she dove into the details and heard commentary from ben rhodes, the obama administration official focusing on foreign policy seeing this seems somebody redding to be president right now. she was speaking to make that point. >> thanks. >> if you have -- truly do have a surprise guest, you don't tell people. >> so what do you do if the rumor is going around? probably boosted rate, don't you think? >> you try to build up the idea -- did you hear -- >> people kept saying beyonce was going to show up. >> no, don lemon. i mean, i never thought i'd say that. i never thought i'd say those two words together, don lemon, the rumors, taylor swift, the bill one. never going to happen. michael jordan. taylor swift has a lot of fans. michael jordan said republicans

buy sneakers, too. taylor swift doesn't need any more fans. >> don't want to alienate half of them. >> you don't want to alienate, and then mitt romney, i don't know. he belongs there probably. that would have been fine. >> that was fun. >> i heard george w. bush, and he would never do that. hoe hasn't said a word since he left. >> and people did use that to make the point he wasn't at the rnc. all the former presidents >> no energy jeb. bill kristol hates him, all the lincoln project hates him. you know who doesn't hate him, adam kizinger, you know who isn't from the right as we just heard, adam kissinger >> i think the rumor they use as a convenient way to drive a wedge look at one party who is able to show unity? please. >> and the other who can't. >> if mittens had been there, take him. >> robert f. kennedy jr.

withdrew from the battle and multiple reports say he's withdrawing from the presidential race. i don't know whether he's endorsing donald trump. supposedly don jr. and tucker carlson have been working on him to make that happen, but -- >> is that why markets aren't coming off the highs. >> trump said i don't know. he went to great lengths not to build up expectations that that was coming. robert f. kennedy is married to sheryl heinz. >> no. >> from "curb your enthusiasm. >> she married to sheryl heinz, already on the record saying he knows how i feel, and there's conjecture around that that would never happen. you know how anti-trump she is. >> if that's the reason why trump's winning odds had gone up to 53. they are down to 51. could be that and could be the dnc. could be some of the policies. >> i'm sure that's part of the

reason why. >> he's -- he still might -- he was ahead at all during the dnc, a ten-point shift. very strange. kennedy expected to speak like in phoenix. in the same state and hours later trump is holding a rally in neighboring glendale. >> close. >> trump's campaign said yesterday that he would be joined by a special guest. >> oh, no. >> here we go again. >> if there's not a real -- >> don't do this to us two days in a row. if there's going to be a special guest. >> i think it might be beyonce. it would be more likely to be beyonce than mitt romney to join trump. >> which shows how unlikely it all is. >> whether rfk jr., and you wonder what kind of -- what he's being offered. >> that's the thing. i mean, which voter is going to go -- what position is he going to hold, labor department? >> no. i'm -- i don't know what -- just because it's so symmetrical and it would be amazing is a.gorges.

like his father was attorney general. you know that. >> yeah. go ahead. >> tracking. >> i don't know what kind of a.governor general he would be but it would be weird if history came all the way around. fed chair jay powell will speak at the jackson hole symposium and we'll speak to an economist 'lout what that happens and wel hear from raphael bostic as steve liesman will speak with him. that's all coming up on cnbc.

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a couple hours from now investors will hear from fed chair jay powell when he gives his update on the economy and on monetary policy from the jackson hole symposium. for more on that, let's bring in drew matis, head of the global economic and market strategy team at metlife investment management. i always think of you more of a fixed income guy, drew, but if you're at like an insurance company the global investment vat gist should be really good at fixed income because we know what insurance companies need to do. people expect money. >> yeah. >> it has to be there, does it not? >> it does, so most of my job is fixed income. >> yeah. >> and that's good. >> economics andates allocation, that kind of thing. >> we talk about jay pout. we shouldn't be talking about stocks at all but we do. we can't help it, but it's

really about interest rates. i was thinking about something. you remember a month ago when we had the growth scare, and i don't know what your comments were at that time. what if that -- that revision from the bls we had earlier this week? what if it had been the day after that -- that jobs report when we were all -- you know, our hair was on fire? like this week was almost a non-event for the bond market and for the stock market because we're back to thinking soft landing is -- is where we are. >> yeah. i mean, this is part of the problem that powell has to deal with which is, first of all, the last payroll report wasn't great, but it wasn't, you know, horribly, horribly, horribly bad, certainly didn't deserve the market reaction that it got. you know, for people paying attention, the labor market has been weakening for a while, and the very fact that we cared about the revisions to payroll. i mean, that also tells you something. >> did we care? certain people that used it as a political cudgel cared about it, but real economists didn't seem

to care. >> i think people were looking for it. it didn't show up and people were calling them about it, you know. i had things to do. i'd rather go get a cup of coffee. >> it actually took some pressure off the fed. they can cut now, although they are not cutting 50 because it's an emergency. they are cutting because the labor market is not as tight as we thought. >> that's what powell has to communicate. he has to get a grip on the idea that the fed will be able to cut hundreds of basis points simply because we have an unemployment rate that's gone above 4%. you know, part of the problem is they keep talking about, you know, oh, well, financial conditions have eased. financial conditions have loosened. they get into the circular argument, right, so it's like oh, we disappointed so financial conditions ease and because they ease we can do this. but really what they are really just talking about is the stock market did this and we have to do that. what he really needs is separate the fed from the stock market and really just kind of say, hey, look. we've kind of -- we think we're

winning the war on inflation. the unemployment rate is going to continue to move higher in coming months, and that will put downward pressure on inflation so we've got this. now we're just trying to get the plane on the ground, right, and -- and so he needs to articulate why a few rate cuts are going to do that and get people to kind of dial back this idea that they are going hundreds of basis points over the next six months. >> yeah. the -- you know, the range of what a -- when a plane lands, i mean, from -- it's just a bad analogy. i wish we had a different one to use because it just makes me nervous. are we talking about at this point -- when you're on a plane and the guy is really good, sometimes you don't even theme the wheels touch down. other times you're like whoa, i'm glald we std we stopped and brakes on. what is it going to be like, wow, i didn't feel that or it's

bumpy or worst case you go off the runway. who knows. >> i don't think it will be particularly smooth. it will be somewhat bumpy in part because of the vimt we're seeing in markets. it's the fixation that has it's the fixation that has everyone kind of --

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you guys had 130% of your sugar for the entire day in this one bottle. [ inaudible ] >> 65 grams of sugar. [ laughter ] >> warren buffet is worth $200 billion and he's 95. >> i think lane has a point. but coke probably ain't too happy. after that happened, the rival coach also sponsored by coca-cola trolled kiffin by proclaiming, what a great sponsor coke is. >> a shout out to our sponsor, coke. smart water, great coke products, minerals, vitamins. it's just great for you. it's refreshing, healthy, and coke provides you all the products you need, depending on what you like. and i love smart water.

>> in kiffin's defense, if a smart water were sitting there -- he wasn't complaining about desani. >> you can have a coca-cola. it's not the end of the world. >> i don't know. >> i know, sugar, to andrew, to young people, you think it's like crack or heroin or something. >> i'm okay with the real sugar. but coke has so much -- >> what do you think actually is going to happen to you? >> i think if you drink too much coke, your glucose levels -- i felt so sick for so many years. you have to really cut back on that stuff if you want to feel better. you don't drink it. >> only because of the calories, they're empty calories. i love coke. >> i have coffee and sugar here. >> before alabama, where was he? where was he? usc. l.a., woke. he's got the woke mind viruses.

>> we are a ucla household. >> i love usc and i love the trojans and i love watching. you just saw brian, when notre dame plays -- >> there's a rivalry. >> but with the coke sign on your lectern and to start trashing coke. >> he clearly didn't do it on purpose. good for him for speaking out about it. if he had realized, he wouldn't have said anything. >> if you like sports business drama, join cbnc and boardroom game plan in los angeles, bringing athletes, investors, owners together. scan the qr code or visit cnbcevent.com to register. coming up, robotaxi rides could be coming to uber ers usas soon as next year. details on the partnership coming up next.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box," live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. futures solid, nasdaq up 150 points, dow, triple digits, s&p gaining about 30 points. all of this on a day where we're going to hear from chair powell out in jackson hole. meanwhile, general motors, the autonomous vehicle company cruise has inked a deal with uber to offer rides to uber users as soon as next year. cruise is attempting to revive the business after the company halted operations following an incident last october. since then, cruise has replaced its leadership and revised safety protocols. in a press release, the ceo, and the uber ceo said they believe autonomous vehicles, indeed, can be deployed safely. i can't imagine. >> you should see what's going on with waymo in san francisco right now.

they are taking kids to school, they are taking people to concerts. they are everywhere. i don't know what happened that all of a sudden -- i think google employees can take a waymo on the highway. >> how far? >> real, legit trips, like replacing drivers. all of a sudden, over the past three to six months, really, after that incident you felt like this is not -- this technology is not ready for prime time. fast forward a year, and it is being deployed on a fast scale. so i see this and say now uber and others are realizes, we better catch up and we're back in the game. it's fascinating. coming up, we'll have more highlights from kamala harris' speech at the dnc last night. you can get the best of squawk box on your favorite dct. st a time. we'll be right back.

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welcome back. vice president kamala harris accepted her party's nomination for president and gave her message to voters on the last night of the dnc. joining us now is hans nichols, axios political reporter. good morning to you. anything in particular stand out? what do you think is kind of the implications, lasting reverberation, we're looking at poly market again trying to get a sense of things. what would you say? >> to me the most interesting is how forward looking the harris speech was, indeed the entire week. they gave the day to joe biden the first day and that had a little bit of backward rooking, but for the most part the democratic party is trying to cast to the future and cast this in the future tents and that's what they want to make the argument about. the interesting thing both the trump and harris campaign basically agree on a fundamental, and that is that the incumbent will lose, and

this has turned the entire campaign into a battle on who is going to be the incumbent and we're going to have sort of dueling versions of that for this 84, 80-day sprint. >> i think that's probably true, although it does feel like there's -- there is no incumbent. i mean, she's done a lot to create that distance between herself and biden, although then again maybe not on policy front and maybe for a lot of people that's the most important thing. it's a reminder of the things like the tax on capital gains that biden might have thrown out there in recent years and more glossed over and now they are coming back from the supposedly dead. >> yeah. well, they were glossed over in large part because when those proposals, when biden threw out the proposals the senate was either controlled by republicans or effectively controlled. you had a backstop of manchin or sinema. people should be very humbled by their ability to predict and the conventional wisdom is the republicans will win back the

senate, but if they don't and the democrats take the house, they are going to have the blank slate to really entirely re-engineer the tax structure in this country. it's going to be an open bazaar. there's going to be a huge revenue need. they obviously want to do stuff -- raise taxes on the corporate side and individual side for wealthier americans. yes, when biden maybe the proposals, you know, the initial build back better proposal in april of 2021 to pay for a $3 trillion proposal, it was given short shrift in part because the senate was controlled by republicans. we don't know who is going to control the senate. >> right. >> i think there's probably going to be more scrutiny on that and certainly what the trump campaign wants to talk about but don't look to the harris campaign for a lot of sp specifics here in the coming months. >> one thing we've been pondering wondering about the debt and deficit situation, very much a republican talking point,

you know, that that situation needs to be addressed so when you hear things like the corporate tax rate going higher and how much revenue that would raise. on some level if you want to raise the corporate tax rate you can do so whether it has a budgetary impact or not. it's weird. i almost wonder if the right should stop trying to say, you know, that you need to do x, y or z to balance the budget and simply debate the issue on the merits. what should be the corporate tax might be? what's better at generating revenue and the same could go for any of the tax policies? >> vess a very fair point. the problem is what generates the most revenue and where you want to be on the laffer curve, if you raise the rate it's going to increase actual revenues. both sides look for advantageous scores. so, i mean, it's a fair question of what should the optimal tax rate be. it just gets polluted, you know,

with legitimate ideological concerns about where that number should be. >> yeah. >> it's not just about -- it's not just about the laffer curve, it's about how companies expand domestically or whether they expand internationally, and -- and there is a number where they are not going to -- not going to build here. maybe it's not where it is right now, 21. maybe they will be able to build here at 25, but there is a number, and i mentioned joe wolk a lot, built an $8 billion facility that would not have been built here, maybe it would have been at 25, but, you know, hans, i've off -- i want zero. fur want to tax -- it's de minimus, discretionary, you know. it's 7% of what you raise of total revenues, right? >> yeah. >> it's not going to solve anything increasing taxes on corporations. it's just a fairness issue. >> yeah. right, but eventually you get --

i mean 7% here, you know, the old washington joke, a trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you're talking about real money. i take your point. >> and unless there's spending and then it's not real money. >> if you want to have the spending conversation which no one ever talks about. let's leave the sort of revenue side off of the equation. very few people talked about the mandatory non-discretionary spending that's like 70% of the budget. >> totally. >> that's right. >> that's the elephant in the room. >> and trump has taken that off the books. >> what if the market has taken that off the books v.any of us seen -- you could argue maybe long-term rates are higher right now because of the situation, but it's an argument and it's unclear if that's the case. that's why i'm saying what if the right is no, you don't have to raise the corporate tax rate to generate revenues. you don't. >> yeah. it's like -- you hear that in pockets. i mean, to joe's -- that you don't actually need to have higher rates for the revenue side. trump -- when we had the big

debate in 2017 it wasn't preordained the number would go to 21% on the corporate tax rate. the business community said we're fine with 25 and trump is like i want to bring it to 21 and i want to say the business roundtable, actually we meant 21. so, you know, 25 doesn't seem like the business community will cry uncle on that, so -- but to joe's point, backing up calculation i use for every percentage point. it's about 100 billion/10 so that's how much you get in revenue. again, like eventually bond markets, eventually the markets in general are going to wonder how much money we're spending and how much we're raising, and you can't have these -- these annual fiscal deficits out that long. i hate to say this, and everyone -- we're all tired because we went through a convention but in january we'll have a debt ceiling conversation again and that doesn't go away, and that's not fun. there are stories you like

reporting about in washington. debt ceiling i can confidently say it's not one of mine. >> what are though going to do democratic through and through on the deficit? do they have to do anything? >> they have to raise it, yeah. >> raise it. >> and we'll have extraordinary measures and then -- it's easier to do it if the democrats run the tables because then they can just raise it and take the political hit, but you've got to do it, statutory. >> hans, thank you. like you said, it's been a long night. appreciate you getting up. >> coming up, some countries in asia are tightening travel restrictions after a case of a new and deadlier strain of monkeypox that was detected in thailand. details are next.

countries in asia are ramping up precautions after a case of a new and deadlier strain of mpox was confirmed in thailand. yesterday, the country said it would tighten surveillance and screening measures at all of its international airports. singapore, south korea, and indonesia have also stepped up screening measures and will quarantine travelers with symptoms under certain conditions. talking about it earlier this week, and there was an unnamed country that was taking -- and andrew and i said we need to know, because, it is like if you could know where you're going to -- the time of your death or the place of your death -- >> you would never go there. >> just don't go there. you wanted to know which country -- i just will not go there to, you know, as far as -- >> you don't think like everything that happened after the pandemic that people don't want to know granular data about where this stuff is taking

place. >> it is a big virus. very unlikely it could mutate to aerosol. >> it could spread. >> it could and it spreads from closer contact. i don't know if -- i won't do it. i don't know if we're funding any research for gain of function. i don't think he's in charge anymore, is he? >> no. he said i hope we're not either. >> who did? >> gottlieb -- >> no, i was talking about fauci. >> no, he's not. shares are sharply higher this morning. the mediterranean fast casual train providing strong results, positive guidance. i wish we bought some -- >> chips. >> spicy chicken. >> harissa? yeah. >> we'll talk to him first on cnbc. "squawk box" will be right back.

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shares of mediterranean fast casual train cava moving sharply higher this morning. the company raised its full year outlook after the second quarter results beat analysts estimates. the stock now up more than 400% since its ipo in june of 2023. joining us now is cava ceo brett schulman. we're getting all the background. >> fascinating. >> it is, because i can't believe it has been five quarters already that you've been able to report since cava -- and i can't believe the stock performance. though, as i said, i've eaten there and i do believe the stock performance. i really liked it. i've only been there once. but the fifth quarter you said you would characterize it as maybe the best quarter you've had. >> yeah. the 9.5% traffic growth is just a great performance and a test

amount to ament to our mediterranean restaurants. >> you were one of the co-founders in the original cava, we just found out. it is still around. it is cava mese in rockville, maryland. >> all my co-founders are sons of greek immigrants and the brand's origins go back to 2006. and then they started selling dips and spreads, feta, harissa, and a couple of local whole foods. i was introduced to my co-founders to a friend from college, cousin is one of my co-founders and they asked me to join up fourth partner and we took elements of both of those businesses the full service restaurant and our grocery products and put it in a fast health-based format to really unleash the pourb ower of this to the world. >> can we talk about how you're pricing things?

have you -- we got price gouging legislation around, have you raised prices more than your costs have increased? >> i think that's been one of the things that has really helped us drive our success and drive our traffic. if you think about from the end of 19 to the end of '23, we only raised prices about 12% during that time period. cpi went up 18%. the department of labor has noted that fast food has raised prices upward of 30%. it enhanced our relative value proposition and able to deliver a really compelling value to our guests which is clearly resonating and even recently in california with the legislation 801228, we were the only limited service brand that didn't take incremental price as a result of some of the legislative wage increases. >> are you taking losses, though, or taking margin hits? because you know you're growing so fast, you can deal with it down the road, you can take some share from other players because profitability is not the main

focus right now? >> that's the power of our economic model. our two year restaurant sales growth is up, that allowed us to invest in our team members. we invested wages 9% year over year, mitigate cost increases to our guests and expand restaurant level margin at the same time. >> i can't -- so, i don't know, that was the question i had, i don't know how you can raise prices less than what your costs were increasing. >> i think it is how we built this business from the very beginning. we have vertically integrated production capability, we have two manufacturing facilities where we make our fresh dips and spreads that tziki and we're making it in 9,000 pound batches and that allows us to take the complexity out of the four walls of our restaurants and bring you that fresh product at scale consistently with quality and cost effectiveness. we source over 85% of our ingredients directly from our grower rancher partners and we invested in wages.

even back in 2016, we took our national starting wage to $13 an hour when many were paying 9 and 10 and $11 an hour. and that equals a great service, great experience, and that's translated into great growth which obviously we get lefveragd on our other costs. >> how much have you looked to something like a chipotle as a template for what you can achieve? it is not as if you came from having launched already a successful fast casual chain yourself. this is -- it is hard to get it right the first time. what is the blueprint, what is the game plan and many, many people there is all these memes going around where people are saying, you're basically -- your market cap is $37 million per cava location now. even chipotle is 21. the market is assigning a huge premium to what you're doing. what does the growth blueprint look like? >> i think it is a testament to the belief in our massive wide space opportunity and we're creating and defining the next large scale cultural cuisine

category, mediterranean. that unique quicuisine where yo don't have to sacrifice flavor for your health. our growth plan is 1,000 restaurants by 2032. 15% plus -- >> three times as many as you have now but a third of what chipotle has. >> we're small in that regard. restaurants do not scale like sass software. it takes a lot of process and infrastructure that we invested in heavily over the years to be able to scale like we're growing today. >> what does it mean for where you end up? you end up -- where are you not right now and what are the plans, how many do you add per year and that must be hard to do. >> yeah, that's the other great thing about this wide space opportunity. we operate in 25 states. >> 25. >> and the district of columbia today. we opened our first locations in the upper midwest in chicago. so, we have -- those are our only locations in the upper midwest. not in the pacific northwest,

northern california. plus we think we have tremendous depth and breadth of expansion in the 25 states we operate in today. >> you're not going to 50? >> some day we aspire to be in all 50 states. >> how many you're averaging new ones per year? >> this year we raised our guidance from -- to 54 to 57 new locations this year. and then we have kind of committed to 15% plus growth rate from here on out. >> inflation at this point is not like it was. >> yeah, we have seen it pretty benign on our input costs and really has receded from the supply chain shocks we saw coming out of the pandemic. >> weird the way that works. other people come in and where there is an opportunity, the supply increases naturally. so learn that in 1776. we're learning again every day. brett, thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on

cnbc. adam smith -- >> i quote adam smith. >> yeah. >> i'm joe kernen with kelly evans. becky and andrew are off today. among today's top stories, workers at canadian national railway are set to return to work today after the government moved to end the work stoppage. skydance is accusing paramount of breaching the terms of its bid for the company with its recent decision to extend that go shop window to engage with other bidders. that window was scheduled to end wednesday. it was extended after the $6 billion bid from edgar bronfman jr. we'll have more on that. and general motors cruise unit striking a deal with uber to offer driverless rides.

cruise will give uber the option to use the robotaxis as soon as next year. >> driverless cars, after everything that happened. dow is up 165. nasdaq, 158. big move there. s&p 500, 31, all eyes on chair powell's jackson hole speech in three hours time. to frank holland with a look at this morning's premarket movers. >> we're starting with an earnings mover, workday, moving higher, second quarter revenue beat forecasts as the hr software maker announced a buyback. shares up 13%. the company also bumping its outlook for operating margins this year, though forecasts and subscription revenues are below estimates. shares up almost 13%. looking at chewy this morning. shares moving higher as well. they're up about 2.5% following upgrade from piper sandler moving the pet retailer from neutral to overweight. also raising the price target to $35, roughly 33% increase from where we see the stock is trading at right now.

piper sandler saying while typeline trends are likely to remain muted, the company appears to be a profitability inflection point. you can see chewy shares year to date, they're up just about 14%. also roku this morning, moving higher after an upgrade from neutral to buy at guggenheim, a price target of $75. that's a 20% upside. analysts see ad revenues increasing and investor confidence increasing as this company heads into earnings coming up in november. shares up just over 3.5%. back over to you. >> frank, i might finally join the chewy ranks. >> what have you been waiting for? >> you don't have -- they brought those animals to cnbc, empty the shelters. and not a pug person, but got me thinking, and i don't know. might be time. >> whether it is chewy or another retailer, you got to get your pet food delivered. no reason to carry it out of the supermarket anymore. >> we get milk delivered. frank, thank you very much. frank holland. coming up, the dnc wrapping

up at this point. kamala harris officially accepting the democratic presidential nomination last night. former white house chief of staff ron klain joins us to talk about that. we'll head out to jackson hole, not really headed there, liesman is already there. and the fed symposium for a preview of jay powell's speech. "squawk box" will be right back. while i am a paid actor, and this is not a real company, there is no way to fake how upwork can help your business. upwork is half the cost of our old recruiter and they have top-tier talent and everything from pr to project management because this is how we work now.

pete g. writes, “my tween wants a new phone." "how do i not break the bank?" we gotcha, pete. xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig. so you get high speeds for low prices. better than getting low speeds for high prices. -right, bruce? jealous? yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. get a free unlimited line for a year when you add one unlimited line. plus, get a new google pixel 9 on us. bring on the good stuff. joining us now, to wrap up the convention this week and talk about president biden's legacy, former biden white house chief of staff ron klain. and we haven't seen even other in a while. good to have you on this morning. how many of the nights were you

sitting there, watching? >> i watched every night. i watched from home. political conventions are kind of like nfl football games. it is fun to be there in the stadium, but get a better view sitting at home watching on tv. >> i think you're right. and, you know, you can get commentary. we were at the olympics and i love being at the events, but i, you know, there is a lot of color and analysis and actually just knowledge that comes in from -- >> some events are better on tv. >> yes, some things are better on tv. you were a great defender of the president and i'm wondering, do you think any ill will, any hard feelings for how it turned out for him? you know, he spoke so late that night. and, you know, then wasn't even there. just what are your comments on how you think he and the first lady are feeling at this point? >> they're feeling very enthusiastic about vice president harris' candidacy. i talked to him after his speech

on monday night, he was proud of his speech, he made a strong case for vice president harris. he talked to her, before her speech on thursday, to give her a pep talk. she didn't need it, but she got it anyway, and she did a great job last night, selling herself, selling her case, to the country. i think we had a fantastic convention. i think democrats leave chicago incredibly energized by our new ticket. by vice president harris and governor walz top of the ticket. and the energy and joy they're bringing to this campaign. i think we're in very good place as a party and they're going to have a very good result in november. >> there is a lot of people that just want more blanks filled in on exactly what type of policies and what type of administration the vice president would have. it is almost as if we're supposed to view the trump administration as the incumbent. it is almost as if the incumbent

isn't vice president harris and president biden. should we look at this as a continuation of the biden administration? because i think -- i think on the one hand you would like to say, yeah, there has been some successes, but on the other hand, you probably don't want to own some of the things that -- where the approval rating is underwater, whether it is inflation or the border or something like that. it is a fine line to walk, ron, just to be perfectly blunt. >> i agree with that. i think what you'll see the vice president do, what she's done is build on the successes, and take her own direction on some things. and i think she's -- she announced last week a plan to cut taxes for middle class families, with children, especially big tax cut for people with newborns. and, you know, that's something that biden tried in 2021, got passed for a single year, couldn't get it passed after that. she made that a top priority to give middle class families tax relief and to help small businesses as well. and i think, you know, she's also got reaching out to people,

you heard her talk about not just labor, but labor and business, bringing people together, i was very pleased to see ken chenault speaking at our convention this week and i think she's building a broad coalition that includes people from both parties, independents, business people, working people, bringing the country together to tackle our problems. >> ron, the business network, cnbc, watching the rhetoric and there is populism infecting, i think, both parties at this point. they're all maybe chasing after some of the same -- some of the same voters. but the -- if there is a difference between republicans and democrats, it might be on how they view the private sector. and for every time i've heard president biden, you know, say look at how great our economy is, we came out of the pandemic faster, we're the best positioned in the world, we've

created 15 million jobs. i mean, those are all private sector accomplishments that we saw. when we create jobs, that's, you know, i guess there is government jobs too, but hopefully there is more private sector jobs than government jobs or we're doing the wrong thing. it just -- it seems to me a lot of times i'm saying, wow, why did they want to kill the goose that is laying the golden egg. more regulations, higher taxes, all -- price gouging, greedy corporate, you know, fear -- all the rhetoric as well as a lot of the proposed policies seem to be antibusiness. why? >> i don't agree with that. look, i think most of the jobs are private sector jobs. and the point is the goose laid a lot of golden eggs under joe biden and kamala harris. stock markets hit record highs, equities are all time valuations, and we had record job growth. so, we have had strong private sector growth. i think you're going to see --

you saw the vice president talk about working with business more closely. as i said, we had ken chenault speak at the convention this time. she was our leader on small business formation, and the biden/harris administration we had regard small business formation the past three years. she's familiar with technology, she is familiar with the role it plays in our competent. i think she's going to be a president that is good for working people, good for -- let me be clear, she puts the middle class first, the thumb on the scale for the middle class. i think that's -- i think that's good for our economy, not just fair, good for our economy. the middle class does well, everyone does well. her plan to raise taxes on the wealthiest americans and cut taxes for middle class working americans is a fair plan to redistribute the tax burden in a more fair way, to fund our government to bring down our deficit and make sure we're making the investments we need as a country. so she's going to create a lot of private sector jobs as president, have a strong private

sector, and i think it will be stronger with vice president harris in charge. >> everybody's got a different view of exactly how the inflation -- 40-year highs we saw on inflation and what caused it. but i don't think it is a stretch to say, all right, so we come out of the pandemic, there is some supply constraints, but so you know supply might be affected a little. and then you --all the stimulus, which may or may not have been wise in a other fiscal spending comes out. the demand gets ramped up. anyone who studied econ 101 knows prices will head up. the first policy initiative leaked out was not about how we look at the root causes of what is happening, but that it is corporate greed and it is, you know, price gouging and that was pilloried, you know, by both sides, by the left and the right, even "the washington post" said, you know, we need

real answers and all we're getting are gimmicks from the harris administration. we're going to have senator warren on later and i know she's going to make the same case, but corporations could have been price gouging for the last 40 years. they didn't just learn to price gouge 3 1/2 years ago. why would that be the initiative? that's just trying to change the narrative of who is responsible for the inflation. that's just trying to, you know, divert attention away from where the inflation came from. >> inflation came from a lot of places. and i think having a federal price gouging law was not going to solve inflation. but consumers deserve not to be gouged. that's just fair. >> where is the evidence of gouging? >> well, if there is -- when supply goes down, supply goes down, demand goes up, we have seen this movie before. i was around for nixon's price controls. so, the worst thing you can do

if you art offificially control price -- >> donald trump's plan to put a sales tax on everything that gets imported, sales tax on tomatoes and avocados. >> you're changing the subject now. >> no, we're talking about prices. raising the prices, that's going to boost prices, that's a bad idea. i think saying, look, we have 40 years of state price gouging statutes, they haven't wrecked the economy, having a federal price gouging statute as a back stop is a sensible measure. i think what we need to do is -- >> what is the number? >> stop the problems, you know, fix the problems we did in the biden/harris administration with improving the efficiency of our western ports to make them operate more efficiently and get goods into our country more quickly. and avoid things like the strikes that the president prevented. you'll see an administration that voted to bring down costs and also putting more money in middle class families' pockets.

>> should we look back on any of some of the policies or some of the stances that vice president harris has talked about in the past? are any of them, would you say, current? i don't want to -- i'm not going to bore you with the 10 of them that i've seen, you know, maybe that the other side is spreading or whether it is dissolving ice, ending the filibuster, you know, taking a company that has a patent and if you think -- if the government thinks prices are too high to take the patent away. there are a myriad of things. can we just reverse all of them and that's the current platform? >> i wouldn't say reverse all of them. i would say she's been clear on the border, she'll sign the bipartisan border beill.

i think she will -- she's been the leader on small business formation, biden/harris administration. she'll continue on that. and i think she'll be a very good president for both business and labor. >> ron klain, thank you. so you had something to do every night obviously. i don't know, are you back to netflix now? what's your plans now that -- now that -- we are going to have playoff season pretty soon for baseball. >> we have baseball playoffs and football season is coming back. i'm looking forward to that. >> football season is coming back. who do you root for? >> i'm from indianapolis, i'm a big colts fan. >> you're from indianapolis, indiana? no kidding. that's great. the salt of the earth. the midwest. are you from -- >> virginia. you consider syracuse sort of the midwest, maybe a little bit. >> ron klain, thank you. >> thank you so much, guys. coming up, we'll talk about what to expect from fed chair

jay powell's speech. a we'll dive into the latest battle for the media company in just a bit. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. on this day in 19, pe 98etrose was banned for life from baseball. who took over as manager of the cincinnati reds? the answer when "squawk box" returns. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! >> earning a degree doesn't have (♪♪)

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>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. on this day in 1989, pete rose was banned for life from baseball. who took over as manager of the cincinnati reds? the answer, tommy helms. >> didn't get that one. the markets are gearing up for fed chairman's -- >> tommy helms, legendary. >> but speaking of lengends, chair powell's speech in jackson hole, let's get to senior economics reporter steve liesman with, wow, it is -- it is twilight -- no, dark. steve, good morning to you. it is going to be a long morning and a very, very exciting one. >> yeah, yeah.

we believe we're this close to light on the mountains, kelly. we're just -- we thought about sending one of our crew out to the mountains and lighting them up, but that was not apparently in the union contract. but let's talk about fed chairman jay powell, expected to lay the ground work here in jackson hole for a change in monetary policy regimes, ending a 2 1/2 year battle against inflation and beginning what is hoped to be a normalization in interest rates, how far powell is going to go is the abiding interest of markets this morning. let's look at the course change here. the fed has been fighting inflation for 30 manonths beginning 2021 and 11 rate hikes that began in march 2022 and lasted through july '23. the fed raised rates from 0 to 538 and then a higher for longer regime restraining the economy and reducing its balance sheet by about $2 trillion. well, it is expected now to start a process where it will attempt to stick this soft

landing by easing rates back to normal, hopefully without a recession. observers expect the fed chair to express confidence that inflation is headed back to 2%. lay out a case for a series of cuts, but not specify the speed or the magnitude. representative patrick harker here on "squawk box" yesterday affirming that sentiment, telling cnbc that the fed -- he thinks the fed needs to start cutting rates in september and begin that series of what he called methodical cuts if supported by the data. markets look to be priced for such an outcome from the fed. here is the numbers. 73% probability of a 25, and then going back and forth on this 50 in november, pretty competent in another 25 in december for a total of 100 basis points of cuts as a down payment between now and the end of the year. maybe some disappointment with a lack of specifics from powell. the direction of policy after this speech should be clear. he needs to navigate more data before the next meeting and a

committee with different views on how fast the fed should move and how far it should go and how restrictive it is right now and how restrictive it needs to end up. we'll talk to atlanta fed president raphael bostic in the next hour ahead of jay powell's speech at 10:00 a.m. and austan goolsbee in the afternoon on "halftime." >> am i wrong to think that goolsbee has become, you know -- i can't decide if it is just because of my sleeping with the lights on bent or because he has been a little bit sort of ahead on this disinflationary but soft landing narrative. i don't know. who do you think is the best barometer? does it matter because we're going to hear from the chair himself? sometimes the other officials help you hear what's really going on, if that makes sense. >> you know, kelly, that's a really astute observation. and it is different in different regimes, right? sometimes it is another guy, waller was early on some of the other changes here. when you followed him. and i think goolsbee has been ahead, with this notion, which

is very important, that right now i believe he would say the fed is the tightest it has been since the tightening process began and, of course, he means on a real rate basis. if you take the fed funds rate, and you subtract inflation, the fed is tighter than it has been since the whole process began and that has been a consistent argument from him for why the fed needs to ease back, reduce the restrictiveness that has been added on from a real rate basis as inflation has come down. it doesn't tell you that the fed should be easy here. it just tells you the fed needs to be less restrictive. and i want to be clear about what i'm saying about a new policy regime, it is not a stimulus regime, it is one that says okay, we reached this point, we restricted the economy for long enough, we can ease back on the restriction and the debate you and i and joe and everybody is going to have is, well, how much restriction can the fed dial back and balance

this issue of potential weakness in the labor force and the possibility of reigniting inflation? that's the balance the fed is going to try to strike here. >> steve, i don't know why i thought about this, because we're all nerds, i guess, in this business, but i was thinking if we went back a month after the growth scare, what if the bls numbers we got, which got the big yawn on -- whenever that was, wednesday, really. and almost taken as a positive because it gives the fed more leeway, i think. what if that had come right at the same time as that growth scare was happening. oh, my god, and 818,000 jobs were never created in the first place. i think people could really piled on. we needed that month of, i don't know, of where we just felt better about some additional data points, about the state of the labor market. >> yeah, retail sales came back, joe, you're right. the jobless claims failed to

surge and remain kind of muted. and then this carry trade concern we had seemed to go away. so that would have been piling on. it would have been -- and people still think, you know what, it is possible that reduction in the jobs, the revision to the jobs number suggests that job growth has been weaker. it didn't matter a lot in that time period, because all you did was go down from a 242,000 monthly average to 174, so that was still strong. but imagine in the context of, well, we were running at 125 and we took off 68,000, that would have been much more meaningful. so, here we are, and now, you know, at turning points, joe, the data goes different ways. so we're looking to see that august jobs report is going to be really important. we'll watch retail sales and jobless claims and the important thing i think to think about, joe, is that the last time we had these kind of big job revisions, jobless claims were

already surging, the economy was already in the tank, that's not the case right now. >> could you have a recession if unemployment peaked at 5.5%? that used to be full employment. it is almost impossible to have a recession at 5.5%. and that's much higher. >> you could -- you could, joe, and -- but i think that's a great conversation for another time when the music is not playing. that's a really interesting comment. >> for another nerd conversation that -- she's all in on the nerd talk. >> it could happen. it could happen. >> all right. >> it is not the level, it is the change. i'll leave it there, guys. it is not the level, it is the change. >> yeah, all right. >> then you're arguing for the som rule, if it is not a level, a point and a half should be enough for a recession. we got to go. >> at some point the som rule does have an impact. >> at some point.

at some point. >> some rules were made to be broken. >> what are they -- we don't know what we're talking about. coming up, the crypto industry opening its wallet in the 2024 election. that's double entendre there. >> oh. >> bitcoin wallet. details after the break. later, senator elizabeth warren joins us. "squawk box" will be right back.

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both conventions are now in the books, in the rear view mirror. vice president harris and former president trump are beginning the sprint now to november. and the crypto industry is flexing its financial might to have a real impact on the election and mackenzie joins us now with more. good morning. >> good morning, joe. so nearly half of all the corporate money being pumped into this year's election is coming from the crypto industry. according to a new report from the nonprofit watchdog group public citizen. the sector which has been under high scrutiny by the biden administration is outspending big oil and banks this cycle with coke industries in a distant second place in terms of corporate contributions. heavyweights like coinbase,

ripple and andreessen horowitz have collectively given more than $146 million with the goal of trying to get candidates who are friendly to the industry into office. now, most of that corporate money being raised is going to the popular and bipartisan pro crypto super pac called fair shake, one of the top spending pacs this year. i spoke to the team last night to get the latest numbers on the four largest donors to fair shake and its associated pacs. coyne base contributed $49 million, jump crypto put in $15 million. as for where all the money is going, a filing with the federal election commission this week showed in july fair shake dispersed almost $75 million and still has nearly $120 million left to deploy with 73 days to go until the november election. super pac pledged $25 million from that pool of cash to 18 house candidates in the general election to be split among nine democrats and nine republicans. it has committed another $18 million to three senate races,

joe. >> so we're in this sprint now, ma condck mackenzie. yesterday we had 75 days. i think 74 qualifies. with 74 days, how many hours? 17 hours. >> what time do they consider election day? >> 22 minutes and -- 6 seconds. i can't -- but that is a sprint and i don't know what happens now. do you? in terms of crypto or anything else? i'd like to know a lot about what heverybody is going to do. i'm joyous, because i have a great job, kelly is here. i'm joyous every day. i have a great family. but i need to know something. i need to know about crypto. do we know is gensler going to be treasury secretary. can you break that news here? >> that is shocking. what i can tell you is that last month i was in nashville, and donald trump was headlining the biggest bitcoin event of the year when he was last in office, he called bitcoin a scam, he had

a big about face, coincided with the tens of millions of dollars pouring into the race from crypto companies. and he said during that speech he planned to oust gensler from his post of chair were he to take office. what is interesting here is the fact that four companies are dominating the spend. so fair shake, that package has a $120 million war chest, there are four companies accounting for more than 93% of that cash. these are companies battling the s.e.c., ripple and coinbase have actively been in courtrooms against gensler and so what you're seeing here is it is not necessarily that crypto is an issue that is going to sway voters in battleground states or districts, but they're opening their purse strings and making crypto a part of the conversation by making themselves impossible to ignore when they spend this much money. >> you know this woman? >> do i know mac? tell them what -- where was that from chad that you brought me that little -- >> i bring kelly gifts back from around the world because cnbc

has been kind to deploy me out to africa, the middle east, europe. >> mackenzie, you are impressive and a great resource. i don't know why you're not on our show every day. are you -- dotcom or what are you? >> proud member of the dotcom team tech team. >> in the afternoons, we're able to -- >> so i'm poaching, again. >> you kind of are. but it is okay. mac is the best. thank you. >> thank you. >> thanks, guys. up next, we'll have more on the markets and the race for the white house. libby cantrill will join us. here is a look at futures, nasdaq leading the way at stla glance, up 158 points. dow opens up 165. s&p 32. "squawk box" will be right back. e the boundaries we face. ( ♪♪ ) so morgan stanley is partnering with the women's tennis association to remove them. ( ♪♪ )

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the markets are closely watching the race for the white house almost as closely as joe with his countdown. for more on the proposed policies and how they will impact the economy, let's bring in our next guest, libby cantrill, head of u.s. public policy at pimco. not to jump too far ahead, but as people are -- the markets have tightened between trump and harris. if she pulls this off, we were speaking last hour with axios,

if she has congress, there is some people who are focusing now on what would full democratic control of the levers of power so to speak mean for policy? could it actually be substantially to the left of this current sort of consensus idea that we might effectively have gridlock because everything is going to be so close. >> it is a great point. i think that the numbers, however, are going to be very difficult. even if harris does win and she does take congress with her, of course. republicans now control the house, by four seats. if democrats flip the house, it is going to be by a similarly narrow margin. and what we have seen is that when you don't really have a very large cushion, in terms of votes, it is really difficult to govern. on the senate side, that's more narrow. should democrats somehow keep the senate and i think we still believe that the odds favor republicans taking back the senate. democrats have a very bad senate map, as you probably talked about. so, even if they have maybe a

majority in name, sort of functionally, it is going to be a very small majority and that's going to have a practical limitation in terms of what can get done. >> we grasp at straws to find market moving election to trump trade. this is moving -- and it probably at best is tenuous. but i really do believe if that became in the market that it was going to be a democratic sweep, i do not think the market would be going up. >> i think there would be -- i think there would be concerns, right? but this is what we have guided our clients to is just that the numbers matter. and if you have a 50/50 senate, you can't functionally get a lot done. >> taxing unrealized gains is a heavy lift. >> if you just look at the stand alone bill that has been introduced by senator widen, it has ten co-sponsors. this is not a popular bill. this cdid not get out of committee. this does not have the support of the full senate.

>> do you see capital gains at 44.6%? >> i would say we have seen democrats run on that platform. and we have not seen any changes. i think it is going to be very hard, given the narrow margins. we were talking about a 60/40 democratic senate, then maybe. if we're talking about 50/50 senate, which is the best -- that's the thing, that's the best night for democrats. it would be a 50/50. >> do you think the stock market or the underlying business sentiment would change if capital gains were taxed at 44.6% 44.6%? >> i think -- >> i'm wondering. there are people that argue it doesn't matter. >> there would be some sort of income threshold. her plan is -- what have you. yeah, i think that what we know from taxation is that it does actually inform behavior. so, anyway, i think the reality here is that even if there were a democratic wave in quotes, it would be by the smallest

margins. i can't sort of reinforce this enough. 50/50 senate is not going to lead to massive changes in the tax cut. >> why couldn't it be 51? you mentioned the tough map. a lot of focus on this. even with -- let's just say, hypothetically she wins the top of the ticket but republicans still because of these particular states and particular map they could still -- >> right now, it is 51/49, democrats to republicans. the west virginia seat is lost. joe manchin is stepping down as everybody knows. that will go republican. so then that is 50/50. is there a world where democrats can win the texas seat and the florida seat? hypothetically. but that is a world where we would have to see more of a landslide election and none of the indicators are pointing to that. look at the generic ballot, or look at enthusiasm levels. despite all of the good vibes for harris, and she definitely has stuck the landing in the last few days, all of those are pointing to an incredibly close race. not only at the top of the

ballot, top of the ticket, but also for the down ballots. >> what are the chances that trump would get his way on tariffs then. >> yeah. this is i think the difference, though. it is a great point because tariffs, yit is technically fiscal policy. tariffs do not have to go through the congress. he can do that unilaterally. we saw from the tariffs on china, this 10% baseline tariff, there is a lot of kind of legal scholars who are debating whether he has jurisdiction over that. i think he would try to do that. so he does not need the legislative body, he does not need a cooperative congress in terms of that. he doesn't need a cooperative congress in forming policy. there are things the president can do to move the economy that doesn't go through congress, but capital gains increases, that goes through congress. and, again this is where not only do the majorities matter, but the margins of the majorities matter. >> your job, what we have talked about, is 10% of what you need to look at.

the regulatory executive order differences between a kamala harris and donald trump, there must be a million things to think about in different parts of the market, and different parts of -- >> where we have seen -- >> clean energy, transition, net zero. >> that's the area where we have seen the biggest differences in terms of executive orders, between a trump and biden. and the border, though, biden sort of pivoted his border policy and now has effectively slowed -- >> we could do it now. he could close it now. >> if you look at the number of border crossings joe, as i'm sure you have, it has decreased. >> we got ingest the 15 million that are already here. >> it is about the immigration bill that wasn't passed. >> on the regulatory side, though, the market is looking at what a harris administration could portend, it is important

to remember that 50/50 -- the best that they can do is 50/50. we think odds favor a republican senate. that means that anybody who is going to be nominated for the s.e.c., for the ftc, for the fdic, alphabet soup, will have to go through maybe a republican senate and 50/50 senate, defini >> economists, so many -- not just with -- >> her term is up actually next month. as you might know. she can sit in that chair until a new president comes in, and nominate somebody new. her term is expired. >> some people think j.d. vance likes her. she might -- >> no. i mean -- i think j.d. vance is in minority in the republican party on that. >> i think so, too. conventional over. still late nights. >> what we're telling clients. even though a lot of good vibes here, there is, i mean -- >> vibes mean -- okay.

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accusing paramount of violating its deal agreement by negotiating with edgar bronfman jr. plus senator elizabeth warren our special guest. "squawk box" is coming right back. [ music ] >> before umgc, i was a pretty good teacher,

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you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire welcome back. skydance media demanding paramount stop negotiating with edgar bronfman. this following a $6 billion for national amusements and a stake in paramount. for more, matt, good to see you this morning. a lot of twists and turns especially with bronfman jr. in

the picture. how serious and bitter should markets take him as? >> depends who you ask. according to skydance not a serious bidder. talk to people around hollywood, he is not as serious a bidder as the skydance group, which is backed by david ellison and his 160 billion, $170 billion fortune. talk to the bronfman side, serious expertise behind us. looked at the deck last night. he has real people and happen 70 or so investors behind him including for tritress and a co others with serious money. depends who you ask here. >> valuation-wise, why pay more than skydance? i guess i'm trying to come to you with is there a bit of vanity aspect to this or strategic, glad you saw the deck, a strategic case to be made for the valuation?

and what his plans are contra sky skydance's that could make paramount for value able and justify a competing offer? >> interesting, because the pitch is very similar from the bronfman group as the skydance group. all say they're going to have more efficiency. going to operate it better. they're going to bring tech know-how. has tech-oriented people lined up to bring a 100-year-old media and entertainment company into the tech age and they're going to have all sorts of efficiencies. the money is essentially the same. it's a little bit sweeter for the shareholders on the bron-of- >> bron-of-bronfman side. but then skydance offering double the cash. a matter of inteof -- money for shareholders might be more on the bronfman side.

a question how real the financing is on the bronfman side. he's claiming he has all of these backers lined up, but we don't know exactly where that money is going to come from. on the skydance side we absolutely know where that money is coming from. it's the ellison family and redbird capital, which is very well financed. an ability to close issue here. >> i mean is there any -- if we sort of looking a the track record. do shareholders then have to take the best offer? or can more sort of analysis be brought as to which one they prefer? does it have to just come down to sheer dollars? >> no. remember here that this is a closely held company. shari redstone has enorthous power here and clearly liked the skydance bid from the beginning.

there was turbulence there. took months to get there but ultimately she was comfortable. the question is whether this bronfman bid is something that will upend share -- shc shari's will. the claim didn't specifically ask for the go shop. something that could be significant. a couple hurdles here i think that this bronfman bid has. >> you don't go to film festivals, do you, matt? >> i do a lot, actually. >> next week going, or not? >> toronto, next week a week and a half. i get altitude signess but heard

it's fantastic. >> in a crowd, stand up -- see this? you're like barron trump. how tall are you? >> about 6'4". i do get altitude sickness. >> i must slouch. amazing. just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe kernen alongky kelly evans, becky and andrew are all today. standing by for highly anticipated words from fed chair jay powell later on. used to say significant, took it out. >> greenspan. >> he did. another one. can't remember what it was, for a certain time -- >> always something a little different. >> it is. funny. because we all -- great to have a central bank where it's so important in our economic lives that one word can make a difference. something's wrong there. investors -- there we go. it's in the prompter. they're going to parse powell's

every word to try to get a feeling on whether the fed is truly committed to cutting rates in its next meeting and by how much. 25 basis -- i'd be shocked anything -- >> great. >> you think it would be great? >> sure. >> the canadian government -- >> lose my job. not this one. >> the job? >> any job. >> moving to rail stoppage. 9,000 workers locked out yesterday. teamsters union says workers at canadian national railway will begin returning to the job today, but the union said a stoppage of canadian pacific, kansas city, continues pending results from the board. and partnership with uber offering driverless rides soon as next month. cruise attempting to revive its

robotaxi business after the company halted operations following that accident last october. how many jobs do you have? you might -- >> i'll a gig worker. a quick look at futures, because just throw this out there. five of six powell jackson hole speeches saw the s&p drop 7.5 on average next three months. also we know august typically is a tough seasonal period and he's been hawkish in the past. maybe a different tune today. a quick pre-market setup. nasdaq looking to lead the way up 162. ten year yield still around 385 last time checked. get to mike santoli with a look at marx. i dangle that out there like red meat for you. i know how much you love stories based on an average of sample-size of six and an august seasonal period. >> kelly what we have to work with here. times that market upset after powell spoke at jackson hole in past years a feature.

sometimes not intended. this time not necessarily looking to jolt or refocus the market but the market has come a decent distance and pre-market futures in s&p 500 essentially trying to recover about half of what was lost from yesterday's intraday high to low. the setup is pretty close to a v bottom. usually you don't get a v. it does happen sometimes. a very steep angle there. we've seen a little bit of a move by bitters got just close to the all-time highs, but it seems to set the market up at an interesting little pivot point ahead of this widely anticipated number end of an august trading week. nasdaq big leader on way up but pretty more to prove. hasn't picked ip losses of the july-august correction, as has the s&p 500. where did the pullback go jed? right to the 50-day average. do you care? some do. obvious point whether to buy the dip or say that you're going to decide whether the market is

resil zsilient or not. look at the maybe slightly differ character of this market in the last several weeks. the low volatility, the defensive parts of the stock market, of the s&p 500 splv, taking off. more aggressive part. semis and more aggressive parts of the market. whetheren it's an enduring change in tone or over a longer period of time the more aggressive stock that worked. rate sensitive, too on the low vol, joe. >> sorry. quickly. torsen picked up on -- so much confusion about these job revisions and what's goning on. issue of business creation and how many -- what joe just joked about. how many businesses in recent years are gig workers who basically are single-person enterprises so to speak and how you count that. is that a company?

is that a person? that's also been affecting the death model, affecting what it's going on with the labor market. so many different dynamics this time around that make the sahm rule and other metrics like that hard to interpret. >> for sure. yeah. everyone's kind of a contractor. i employ myself. so how do you count that? also, is the conclusion of that big downward payroll revision one of the conclusions productivity was better over the past little bit? maybe that solves one of those conundrums and maybe the economy was slightly more sensitive to rate tightening, to fed tightening policy than we thought. look, i think it is a lot, has a lot to say about the story we tell about how this cycle is unfolding. i think in the here and now, it really is about the weekly claims, we got jobs number coming, you know, what? next week. two weeks. there's plenty to work with. >> michael, thank you. mike santoli. coming um, the final hour of the show, massachusetts senator,

senator elizabeth warren -- senator -- senator? saying it twice. say it once probably. elizabeth warren, whatever. joining us live from chicago where the democratic convention just wrapped up and hear from atlanta fed president raphael bostic and talk markets and the central bank's next move with roger altman. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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the harris campaign has yet to give specifics on the vice president's plan to, and price gouging, or actually put on price controls, basically. our next guest worked with harris on an anti-price gouging bill in 2020 during the pandemic. a similar bill was re-introduced in the senate earlier this year. joining us now, massachusetts democratic senator elizabeth warren. senator, you're famous from last

night. you were already famous but even more famous from last night. kind of a pretty nice moment for you, i have to say. >> well, it was a moment for me about democracy. why all of these people had shown up, because they want to be in the fight, and they want to be in the fight, because they want to see an america where they can afford to pay for their prescription drugs. see an america where their kids can afford to go to college without getting crushed by student loan debt. they want to see an america strengthening social security not as donald trump did, propose four budgets in a row that cut it. i saw this as a roomful of volunteers who are in the fight all the way, and i loved that. >> senator, i actually wish, actually wish donald trump would consider doing something to entitlements and stuff but i don't think that's really the case. senator, the price gouging. >> but -- you have to

remember -- let's do remember he did try. four times in a row. >> i wish he would and to actually -- maybe move it out to 70 or 75. something's got to be done. it's going toble be untenable. lose the "washington post" as a democrat you got serious problems. what they said about the price gouging, or the price control legislation. it was both sides of the aisle, even jason furman. i don't know if you saw some of these c his comments. not good policy and can do more harm than good. i can paint you a picture how that would work and how it's worked in the past, tried to artificially hold prices down. competition doesn't come in. people don't -- like if beef is too high, people don't move the chicken. competitors don't come in to undercut where the beef prices are. nothing works when you try to

artificially control prices. it's just the supply and demand issue. it's a flawed idea. >> so do you have a question here? >> yes. why would you propose a flawed idea when the real problem -- >> let me ask you a question -- >> help the middle class. sincerely want to help people having truck at the grocery store it's not price gouging that's the issue. and if you look at a seriously and really want to help them, let's do something about it. together. fine. >> i understand if you wanted to do a lecture about this, start with where have you been? for the last 30 years, and three dozen states have price gouging laws, and they have used them effectively. states like texas and florida. they've used price gouging laws. price gouging laws are not price control. price gouging laws are to say, you know, sometimes markets go off the rails, and when they do, we need some ways to get them back on the rails.

we need some curves on that behavior. so, for example, we watched in the pandemic how prices went up for a whole lot of reasons. they went up partly because we had supply chain kinks. we had problems because of the war in ukraine. that cut supplies of certain commodities, and one of the things that happened as a result of that is there were corporations that said, whoa! now that we have inflation, now that prices are up overall, this is a great opportunity for us to raise prices. not just in passing along costs, but to go way, way, way above that. and how do we know that it was way, way above just passing along costs? look at what happened to their profit margins. if they had just been passing along costs profit margins would have stayed about the same, but for some industries, some

companies, profit margins shot up, and do you know where they shot up most often? it was in companies, or in industries where there was a lot of concentration, a lot of market power. places where the market is not functioning competitively. so you end up with some, you remember all talked about egg prices. you end up with something like a giant egg producer, cal-maine. and cal-maine raises the price of eggs. their profit margins increased by 718%. that's not just passing along costs. >> senator -- that's a -- that's -- your example on kraft is either -- >> are you -- you finished first. >> and any of the -- six minutes. >> already have price gouging. >> can i tell you why those are fallacious and misleading at

best and your kraft analogy, please, let me tell you. kraft you say, 440% profit increase. the example you used, the prior quarter from the year before they had a charge of 1.3 billion dollars, and an accounting change which wiped out of profits's then earned what they normally -- let me finish now. >> even -- you didn't let me finish. look at the data. come on. we have economic study after economic study. >> this is the way it always goes. >> when there is -- >> senator, 40 million eggs destroyed by of the avian flu. >> we're in an industry, we have seen much greater increases in -- >> do you attribute the inflation, what you think we need to do to solve it. they are not random one-offs, it is part of the problem. when you've got companies that are gouging consumers on prices, consumers need to know they've

got somebody on their side. >> senator -- senator, trying to help -- we're trying to actually do -- >> 36 -- where were are you on 7 states that currently have price gouging. >> this is kelly. can i clarify -- >>s this is the way you never lose an argument because no one can ever say anything back to you. it's frustrating. >> look at what a state of emergency is declared. most part say prices go up 10 or 15% compared to before that state of emergency you have to pay a fine. on a national level, how exactly would this work? define the state of emergency? does it have to be declared on a national level? are you then talking about a 10 or 15% increase in prices versus prior to the declaration and then companies pay a fine? fine. maybe applies in 1% of the situations. this legislation still vague making it sound like broad base price controls imposed broadly speaking's which of the two

systems is it? >> it is not price controls. this is about when the market itself is not functioning. sometimes markets don't function because of a localized emergency. a hurricane. a wildfire. flooding. and so in states that have these price gouging laws, they can come in and say, look. you can do some price increases, but if you're going above a certain level you have to be able to justify it. you have to show what you're doing in passing along costs. >> senator -- senator, let's go back to cal-maine. avian flu caused destruction of 40 million eggs. they have 20% market share. 20%. but they don't control the market. it's like opec, or like oil. when oil prices go up for whatever reason, or they go down, when they go down the price is set for oil. the reason that cal-maine made that money was because, that's what happened to the price.

the next quarter, they went down in half. lost 50% of the profits from -- they don't set that price. that's the -- and neither do the, exxon does not set the price of oil. when exxon has $80 or $100 a barrel, yes, record prompts. when a pandemic, their prompts went to almost zero. now -- it's just the way it is. and to think that the government can decide when prices are too high or too low, the grocery chains have a 2% profit margin. how about apple with 50% or 40%? how do you decide? this is not the government's place to do these things. it's a fool's errant and using it to deflate the real cause of inflation over the last four years because of demand after the pandemic. which obviously, you know -- there was a lot, because we reopened, and all of a sudden there's supply chain issues, and the demand is juiced by all the

stimulus from the i.r.a. and the other spending we do. >> there have been many causes for inflation. we all understand that why i started my answer in talking about this, but one of the causes of prices going up is that there are companies that have market dominance, that have said, oh! this is a moment when everyone's talking about -- >> name another one? give me an instance? if you give me an instance? >> can i please finish my argument here. >> go ahead. >> >> they have gone on earnings call and said over and over inflation has been very, very good. listen to the earnings call from the ceo of chipotle who says, this is a opportunity. not to pass along costs. this is an opportunity for us to raise prices beyond passing a law on costs that increase our profit margins, and what the

academic stubbdies -- i let you finish -- what the academic studies show industry by industry, when you see more competition, which suggests more pricing power, what we saw is that profit margins went up, and that's the problem we've got. it's that states have tools to deal with this locally, but right now we want to make sure that the ftc has the tools to do it nationally and that the states that don't have price gouging laws also have access to those same tools. >> we have anti- -- >> in the same way -- in the same way that the ftc, for example, has tools to be able to deal with deceptive pricing, and deceptive advertising. it should have the ability to deal with price gouging. >> senator, do you -- >> just another tool in the toolbox to say, we -- >> a state of emergency?

for a state of emergency? >> that the whole point is to -- >> did these companies learn -- >> i let you finish your argument. did you invite me on here just to lecture to me? >> no. just ask you -- >> the whole point is to get markets that are more competitive, and that's the job of the ftc. that's something state attorneys general will work on. we just want to put one more tool in the toolbox when ceos are going on the phone saying, boy, inflation is great. because it gives us a chance to raise our prices. >> it's not about diverting the attention away from the real issues that might actually help the middle class that you always talk about helping? for 40 years companies didn't know how to price gouge? until three and a half years ago when president biden was elected? where was the price gouging? 40 years high in inflation. just learned how to do this three and a half years ago? >> no. the difference is, prices were

not going up. as i said, prices started going up for a whole host of reasons. prices went up because of the pandemic. prices went up because of supply chain kinks. prices went up because of the war in ukraine. prices were going up. and the difference is when they started going up sharply and people noticed, that companies, some companies, also noticed, and said, you know we could raise or prices just passing along costs. that's what you do in a competitive market. >> this is not widespread, senator. not widespread. >> let me finish. i let you finish. in some markets, what we've seen is, in markets less competition, that ceos said, we can do more than pass along costs, and you don't have to take my word for it. do you listen to earnings calls? >> i listen to earnings -- senator, the example you use for kraft -- i let you finish. people -- i let you finish. >> fallacious. totally fallacious. throw the numbers -- >> you just want to keep

talking. the earnings calls, ceos have gotten out, it's well documented, and they have said, we can raise our prices far more than passing along costs. and said to their investors, we have a great future ahead of us. >> they can't do that because it's not a monopoly. >> -- going to increase. it happens in places where there's more concentration. that's the whole point. it makes your point. when markets are -- >> only 20%. >> more price gouging. when markets are more competitive it's not priced. there is no price gouging. >> would it be a state of emergency? last thing, senator warning, what period of time declaring when we're -- is it state of emergency? how do we define period of time, by what percentage? 10, 15% and talking fining companies? modeled on the state approach here? the question you ask is the same question people want to ask ak

what is fraud. what is deceptive after thing. the answer is that you look at all of the facts and say, do we see a competitive market, where a buyer can understand what it is that they're being offered, and do we have a seller that's meeting that buyer? are they competing with other sellers? that's what we do in antitrust law all day long. >> this is the -- the terms. >> nothing new here. putting one more tool in the too toolbox, a lot of concentration in the industry and pushes prices up. >> the example for kraft -- if it was done in a straightforward way, senator, it would just be, your argument would be much better. you say kraft raised profits 440%, it was because the year before they had taken an accounting charge which brought their profit down to zero. so when they earn a normal profit the next quarter of 800

million dollars, your people put out information that's up 440%. that's disingenuous. kelly puts out, competition -- the cure for higher prices is when people come in and undercut those prices and supply goes back up. since 1776. >> i hear you. take this for an answer. when there is competition, prices will reach the right level. >> then we need antitrust laws and anti-monopoly laws. >> yes, we do. yes, we do. >> we already have them. we don't need to layer another one on here that works on what -- what are the number of cases you're talking about? 1%? >> no. so listen again to the studies. in there is more concentration. >> what studies? i think i saw from groundworks. it's a liberal think tank from groundworks? that one? >> if you don't want to pay attention to the numbers, you can ignore them, ignore the calls.

reality is -- >> not paying attention to the numbers, senator. okay, all right. >> the reality is, the american people know what's happening. in pricing. they understand that they are being gouged. >> who to blame for that, senator? >> who they blame for that are these giant corporations. >> no. they blame the biden administration. >> no. you blame the biden administration. because you cannot bear the notion that sometimes these competitive markets are in fact not competitive. and whenthey're not, ceos have found ways to juice profits at the expense of the american public. you may not like that but the american people understand what's happening and they want to have people in government who at least have tools in the toolbox to be able to respond which it happens. and that's what this is all about. >> inflation has already come down without any of this happening. how does that -- why do companies stop gouging?

why did cal-maine, why did the priss come down 50% immediately? why does it happen? >> i'm not at all clear that prices have come down. >> so you haven't -- >> a lot of companies in very concentrated industries have raised their prices and are sitting -- >> rate of inflation has come down. >> and are sitting on much bigger profit margins than they were sitting on three years ago. >> in the food industry, profit margins are less than before the pandemic, senator. in the food industry. >> they are not in industries where there's more concentration. look, i get it. you want to pretend that markets will always correct themselves. >> i just want to try to -- actually do -- i want to try to actually conquer inflation. >> i'm somebody who -- i am somebody who believes in competitive markets. that's what i want to see happen. that's what i'm out there fighting for. but competitive markets won't happen on their own. when these companies get bigger

and bigger and bigger, one of the consequences is that they start figuring out other ways to juice their profits. they do things like, they cut quality. they stop innovating, and they start building up their profit margins. you know, we have antitrust laws and thank good noz for lina khan who many out there starting to enforce them, and to say to these giant companies, they cannot just dominate entire markets and do whatever they want, because we don't get the benefits then of markets. this is just one more tool in the toolbox to deal with companies that use their dominance to be able to boost their profit margins. that's all. >> they tell me out of time. senator, real and fun and good to go back and forth. we've done this before and have to agree to disagree. i hi tothink the way the united

states came out of the pandemic. you want to thank the government. i think the private sector we can thank for the 15 million jobs and everything else. i think we need to embrace it. may be a few bad actors but the whole idea it's all about these bad corporations is just ill-conceived. thanks for your time. >> she let you finish. >> she did. ended the interview. >> but she had the last word. very good. coming up, hear's from atlanta fed president raphael st.boic stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. that's because cdw showed animation studios new ways to maximize their infrastructure, then built a flexible dell technologies data solution. more automation led to greater efficiency, which means creativity stays the star of the show. make amazing happen.

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coming up an interview with atlanta fed president raphael bostic. bring you that next. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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kansas city fed's annual sim pos symposium in full swing in jackson hole. kansas city a pretty good town. i get it.

jackson hole -- ever ask yourself that? great states, great jazz. ever ask your that? why -- >> yeah. no. it's true. i think about the barbecue we could be having now if we were in kansas city, joe. it's here because of the fly fishing and paul voelker in the 1980s. the whole story. of course, it is possible that i, myself, availed myself of that possibility, or that potential, but, joe, i'm here with atlanta fed product raphael bostic and it's my great hope we end up yelling at each other like you were with your conversation with elizabeth warren. >> getting yelled at. >> i don't think we have to yell. should be fun today. >> close, and could end up in fisticuff end of the day. start with this question here, raphael. does it feelto you like taking in all the data out there, all of the economic data, that this is a turning point here in fed policy? >> well, i do think that. i think it's safe to say that in the sense that for two years now

the inflation part of the mandate has really been the main focal point, and as inflation has come down, as unemployment has come up, risks to both sides of or mandate have come much more into balance, and we're going to have to think hard about sort of what's happening in labor markets so that we can try to get to that illusive calm, orderly return to normalization. >> i was looking at the tail of the tape. count it from november of '2'21 30 months. is that over? about to be in a process of normalizing rates from restrictive to less restrictive? >> i think we're close. look, at the very beginning of this i said we could have to raise rates, stay at a high level for a long time. >> right. >> we've been there for a long time and now the numbers are starting to move in a direction which suggests that our policy

has had its effect and we can start the pathway back to a normal policy posture. look, we can't wait until inflation is at 2% itself to start moving. inflation's come way down telling me we have to really think hard about this. on the other hand, we've had a lot of positive momentum in labor markets. that momentum seems to be easing up a bit, and that means that it is a sign that we're getting back to a much more normalized place. >> i wonder how much currency utinto the arguments that floats around in hallways here, which is that right now the federal reserve on a real federal reserve funds rate, which is an inflation adjusted funds rate, because the funds rate has not come down. inflation come down pun know the argument. how much currency do you put on the idea more restrictive now than when you raised to 538 and no matter what's happen, almost

no matter what's happened in the economy you need to be less res restrictive? >> a case to be made. i've talked about passive tightening more than year ago. i believe that's a thing. for me i think the biggest issue and focus i've had is, is inflation sustainably moving back to its 2% target? for the first part of this year, it was clear it was. now for me i've really tried much as possible to get that sense. i'll say the numbers in the last couple of months have come in quite positive. made me more confident about that and hopeful the next two months worth of data points continue that pathway, because then it would say, we're moving there. one last thing i would point out, though. if you look at where inflation is, it is not particularly close to our target. we have an underlying inflation dashboard on our website. it's all flashing red still. it is not as red as it was

before. bright, bright red, but we still have a ways to go and i don't think it's in our interest or in anyone's interest to just assume thatful we're done, and so we don't have to worry about it. so that's the other part that i think everyone needs to be mindful of. >> i get that. which is why i sort of asked about this passive tightening thing. it's not really that you're at or near target. it's that you have scope to become less restrictive but still putting downward pressure on both the economy and inflation, even if, for example, you get upside surprise of .3 versus .2 because you're already on the way there and already have restrictiveness in the funds rate right now? >> the argument, makes total sense. i foetotally agree with that. i would say inflation has come down faster than i expected. for me it says it may be appropriate to full forward our first rate move. i was fourth quarter, my outlook for the fourth quarter for quite

some time. >> only one cut. >> one cut. right. >> has that changed now? >> it is in play. you know, we -- in a couple of weeks, we'll have to do another sep and as part of that i will come to a more definitive view because i have to put a number in the table. >> do you want to whisper the number to me now? >> not right now. maybe in a couple weeks i'll call you. >> okay. it sure. >> i think that you can't ignore the data. the data has come in in a way which would suggest that it's going to be appropriate to be closer to moving than further. and for me, i just want to make sure that the next couple of data points are consistent with that, and then we'll see where we are. >> is the unemployment rate higher than you previously forecast? >> it is. >> meaningfully so? >> i wouldn't is a meaningfully so's in that the rate is still by historical standards below.

right? we don't have a crisis in labor markets. the way i describe them is, they're weakening but not weak. i want to try to remind people. right before the pandemic we had one of the tightest labor markets that people had -- >> before the pandemic. >> before the pandemic. >> then lost a million people. >> and then it became super acute. easing is coming off that super acute environment >> sure. >> for me the thing to look at for now is whether that weakening is accelerating in such a way that it isstarting to move closer to weakness. not what we're seeing now. i talk to businesses all the time. they tell me that while they are more luke warm about hiring new workers, they don't have in their outlook laying people off. >> right. >> as the modal thing. >> how did the 818,000 revision affect your view of the job market? >> it didn't really change it that much. our folks told me the world is

changing in ways. a lot of data collection techniques -- >> need to do better. >> it's just hard. >> right. >> right? and so they were telling me there's going to be a revision. whatever the number is, you should not assume that it's telling you a different story than what we're hearing from the hundreds of businesses and leaders across the industry. >> quick. the market is priced for four rate cuts this year. or 100 basis points. 200 over time. i want to ask you what you think about how the market is priced, but i'm also interested in this idea. where do you frneed to get to? where should you be if you need to provide stimulus to the economy? in other words, how restrictive do you think you are? >> i think we're riestrictive. earlier in the week i was people in the housing industry. talk to them, very restrictive. >> help, help! >> and not really a lot of

ambiguity or debate on that point. i to think restrictiveness is real but a lot of momentum in the economy because of how re experienced the pandemic and a lot of our restrictiveness has been trying to sap that up so we're back to a more normal type of economic environment. look, i think we're in a pretty good place right now. but i don't assume anything is going to stay that way. >> 100, is that crazy for this year? 200 crazy in a full year? >> let me say this -- the markets have been eager to get us to be finished. and for me, i think we have to really remind ourselves that the u.s. economy doesn't move that quickly, and that patience is going to be warranted. the other part for me is, we've seen through the last two and a half years the unexpected, seems to routinely happen. so just have to keep eye mys open for that and not

pre-suppose any pathway, because they will send a signal i think that's not really going to be helpful. >> raphael, you know elizabeth warren. you're not elizabeth warren. i'm no joe kernen but thanks for joining me. >> good to talk to you. >> doing this quite a number of years, keltie. be -of-kelly. back to you from jackson hole. >> it was great. very, you know -- not -- yeah. it was great. i'm at a loss for words. steve, appreciate it. of course the big event just over an hour away when we'll hear from the chairman himself. that could be quite market moving. what is that? a that a -- >> it's a -- i don't know. is that bigfoot? always put a bigfoot behind steve. exciting. evercore founder roger altman will weigh in on what we just heard from raphael bostic, plus the democratic national

convention this week. "squawk box" will be right back.

atlanta fed president raphael bostic just told us the risks to both sides of the fed's mandate are coming back into balance. that interview came ahead of this morning's main event, a 10:00 a.m. eastern speech by fed chair powell. joining us now is roger altman. this has been a time that -- i think it was last year, here was the quote. two years ago from powell in jackson hole, "we will keep at it until we are confident the job is done." of course then he was talking about inflation and the market has often had kind of a soggy reaction to his jackson hole remarks, but is it potentially going to be very different this time around? >> a little bit different because i see the fed right now as labor first, meaning that it's more confident of the trajectory of inflation than it is the trajectory of labor markets, and at the margin, more

concern about labor markets underperforming than about inflation underperforming. inflation, after all, and i listened carefully to mr. bostic's remarks, is trending just where -- toward where the fed would want. is it a guarantee that it hits the fed's 2% long-term target? no. but it's got momentum towards that. core pce, ex-shelter, is already at 2%. labor markets, a little more volatile. we saw that large revision, which means that average monthly job growth has been slower than we thought the it had been, and it's very hard to pull off a soft landing the way the fed is trying to do, although they look like they can do it, so i think at the margin, the fed is more oriented towards labor markets, which means more inclined to cut, and i do think that the basic scenario of three cuts, 25 basis points each between now and the rest of the year is the

base case. >> you know, yesterday, we were having this debate about whether they should cut by half a point, and a couple of reasons for that would be, number one, that rates are so much higher now that as a percentage of where they are, it's not as big as it might be later on if you had to do more of playing catch-up. more importantly, inflation expectations are down since the spring, and bostic himself just said, to see that passive tightening is not the fed's goal, and passive tightening via lower inflation is a thing, so inflation is coming down, inflation expectations are coming down. even as you said this inflation dashboard is flashing red, you could make the case for a half point cut as potentially leading to a better economic outcome, especially if you need more hiring right now. >> yes, but i think if the decision were today, the september 18th meeting were actually today, it's much more likely that they'd do 25 basis points because they'd like, i think, to be consistent and smooth about it if they could.

and so i think that's more likely at the moment, but if we see, for example, a disappointing print on jobs and the unemployment rate, and other aspects of labor markets, yes, 50 basis points could come into play as you suggest. >> roger, we had an interview with senator warren and i went back to the way that the price control or price gouging or whatever you want to call it, the way that was received, and i think it was fair to say that you had some criticism from both sides of the aisle, "the washington post" said it's a gimmick, we need real solutions. jason furman said not only is it policy that won't work, it could actually be counterproductive. i just want you to weigh in. we can acknowledge that the pandemic caused supply to be tight. there was a lot of stimulus that caused demand to be very high

while at the same time supply was tight. that's enough of an explanation right there, i think, for what happened. do you think -- how much of the 40-year highs in inflation was caused by corporations taking advantage of that situation and being able to gouge on prices? i'm just wondering if you're someone who thinks -- >> in my view, joe, very little. it is true that grocery margins during the pandemic rose above long-term historical levels and haven't fully returned, haven't fully come down. >> they're at pre-pandemic or pre-2019 levels, my colleague sara eisen -- >> well, i've seen other data. >> well, what are the margins now? >> in any event, my answer is very little. >> okay. >> and i view the proposal, you know, the first ever ban on price gouging at grocery, i view that essentially as jawboning. that would not pass the

congress, whatever the make-up of the congress is. the harris campaign knows that. so, it's a form of jawboning, which is a very old, tried and true technique, essentially saying, we're going to watch very closely as to the pattern of grocery prices. but let's step back a second. i thought that she struck, last night, a bit of a surprisingly centrist tone. she was very hawkish on border security and on national security, send me the langford bill, i'll sign it. her comments on north korea, very hawkish and then her basic proposals and expanded child care tax credit, deeper incentives to increase the supply of housing in this country, and expanded earned income tax credit, including low-income childless workers and

finally continuing the enhanced subsidies for buying insurance under the affordable care act, these are very appealing to the middle class. i personally see them mostly centrist, and she stayed away from some of the flash points. >> so, maybe we should have just assumed that was cinomg. telling me i got five seconds, roger. thank you. we're coming right back. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities. this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person.

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do you ever do this on -- >> i can't take it that far. >> 1:00 to 3:00. >> i can take a couple of questions, but i give you credit. >> well, it's -- you know? make sure you join us next week. i'm going to go sleep. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ live shot of jackson hole, wyoming, home of the event that markets have been waiting for. fed chair powell set to address the kansas city fed's annual summit, and of course we will bring it to you live. good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer has the