watching from the sidelines but worth noting >> kevin >> visa. the stock has pulled back, it's no longer expensive relative to historic multiples $19 billion in free cash flow in the last 12 months >> jenny >> national retail properties, 5 peerz yield, decent earnings >> that does it for us "the exchange" starts right now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, frank welcome to "the exchange." i'm dominic chu in for kelly evans on this friday afternoon and here's what's ahead on the show the time has come, quote unquote. jay powell signaling the fed will cut rates next mont while he stopped short by saying how much, one guest says it will be 50 basis points he'll tell us what makes him so confident about that forecast. our strategist is bullish on what he calls ai 2.0 companies he likes two in particular

he's here with the names and why they are in the sweet spot turn around hopes helped peloton surge 35% yesterday. the stock is up again today, but still down 80% from its pandemic peak so should you get in or steer clear of that peloton trade? we have a special "three buys and a bail" turn around edition here on "the exchange. peloton, three more names. we're going to begin with the markets overall. check out what's happening with the stock market right now, because we are still in the green. but well off of the session highs right now. you can see the dow industrials up 253 points, up more than 400 at one point the s&p, 5602, up one half of 1% 32 points to the upside there. and the nasdaq composite, 17,761, spot 18. 141 points to the upside, three quarters of 1% gain there. so markets at this hour, very much to the green side of things, but off the best levels of the session so far. two of the key areas of

focus. any time there's fed commentary involved, any time interest rates are part of the discussion, yes, it reverberates through the entire market, but check out technology and financials, those two sensitive parts of the market that have been very much running the wave of momentum to the upside. nvidia shares among mega cap technology up almost 3%. remember, it reports earnings again next week. options market already implying a decent size move in nvidia alphabet is up about one half of 1% and tesla up about 3%, three of your mag seven leaders so far. mega center money center banks like jpmorgan chase up one half of 1%, you can see there and bank of america is up about one full percent, as well. tech and financials, a key focus today. the stock of the day is cava an interesting read on the consumer here. it's not low or high end, it's in that middle side of things, but up 22%, a better than

expected quarterly report and outlook hike, as well. so cava group, your stock of the day so far again, maybe not bellwether status, but one that speaks to the trends in the consumer right now. we'll see whether that sticks for that cava group trade. with stocks rallying on powell's speech, let's get straight out to jackson hole and our economics reporter steve liesman for more on what's happening in wyoming. steve, the markets appear to like what they heard from fed chair powell, and the very least, he did no harm. >> well, that's interesting, dom. i'm going to talk about that maybe he was a little more dovish than the markets expected after 2 1/2 years of fighting inflation, jay powell took to the podium here at the jackson hole annual conference on monetary policy and laid down a new marker on policy, declaring now is the time to adjust policy downward >> the time has come for policy to adjust. the direction of travel is

clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. >> he suggested the fed would timely adjust the policy, could stick that soft landing, saying the fed could get back to the 2% inflation target with a still strong jobs market those comments on the direction of policy and the outlook for a soft landing helped stocks and beyonds. the two-year fell. the dollar was weaker. all of that suggesting like i was saying to dom that maybe the market wasn't fully prepared for a really declarative statement about the direction of policy here that was maybe less hedged than people were thinking. powell did not specify the extent of rate cuts, so what do you watch now? look for further job market weakness to determine is that going to be a 25 or 50 inflation does need to be continuing downward. i don't hear the fed coming off of that 2% target, so still some

work to do there and you look for an economy around any weakness in the economy could make the fed be more aggressive. chicago fed president austan goolsbee said he had concerns about the job market and consumer but was generally upbeat on the economy. >> i do have concerns, there are concern warning lights from parts of the job market, and the consumer with small business defaults on the other hand, we also have wide pockets of strength in the economy. so i'm hopeful that a year from now, we're still chugging along. >> you know, dom, i've been doing this for a lot of years. you get kind of accustomed to a fed chair that kind of hedges his or her bets. but i think we ought to get used to a powell chairmanship where he says what he means and means what he says, and says it very decla declaratively. that's what we got if he didn't mean to say it, he

would haven't said it at all >> interesting again, it's not that when powell hasn't spoken in the past that there has not been volatility. there hasn't been as much of it today. how much of that just speaks to the idea that the markets are pretty much in tune with the fed, the fed with the markets, and this is pretty much an all-clear stein regardless of the narrative? just a handful of months ago, it talked about political motivations around the fed >> there was some of that, and remember, it was -- i think you had two fed officials today who, in june, were saying one rate cut this year. that was, as you remember, we had been through that bout of inflation, and now raphael bostic from atlanta said my forecast for this year is in play and then others had said just one. and now there are multiple in play here. hopefully, all of this stays together this is the probabilities that we just put up

and the way to read that start is just look at the last number in the middle there, the 92% probability, add up the ones on the left that's saying the market is super confident there's going to be 100 basis points of cuts. i will say maybe one of the criticisms i'm hearing in the hallway here is maybe powell precommitted the fed to more than the fed itself is either willing or able to give at that time, but, again, he was clear about the direction of rates, the magnitude. that's going to be up to the data and the committee >> the time has come those words. thank you very much, steve liesman, out in jackson hole while jay powell did not indicate the scope of those rate cuts, our next guest expects the fed to ease by a full half percent in september and november, and a quarter point in december 1.25% by the end of the year joining me is jay bryson from wells fargo. that's a little more aggressive than most of the people i have spoken to say. why do you think the case is there for a full percent split

the next two meetings of cuts? >> you know, dom, what i would say is, and mr. powell kind of alluded to this today, the labor market is starting to weaken, inflation is coming back down towards 2% and generally, what it really boils down to is the stance of monetary policy right now is very restrictive you know, we measure that by the so-called real fed funds rate. the nominal rate minus inflation. and that's close to 3% right now. we haven't been at these sorts of levels since 2007 and so, they have a lot of wood to chop, just to get back to neutral, and they kind of need to get going back in that direction as the economy continues to show some signs of stress >> as an economist, has it surprised you at all you've seen many of these cycles, you still look young enough, but we know that you're a veteran and you have seen a lot of these cycles. it's shattering to my mind how quickly we went from being all

fearful of 40 plus year inflation levels to being concerned about a weakening job market and slowing economy to the point where you think the fed would have to cut by a full half percent to kick off a cycle possibly >> so, dom, you know, i will go back a few decades here. if you go back to november of 2000, in november of 2000, the fed had a "bias to tighten." in december, they moved to a neutral bias, and on january 2, 2001, they cut rates by 50 basis points sometimes that's the way the economy works. sometimes it deteriorates quickly, and when you think back to 2002, when inflation really shot up, you know, inflation shot up really quickly and the fed had to move really fast. so what's more likely when you look at history is the fed funds rate tends to move a lot in a direction rather than going 25

basis points, waiting a meeting or two, going another 25 basis points the big swings are more normal >> how much does the fed this time around have to factor not just those things we mentioned with regard to the kind of downdraft of inflation and the slowing economic jobs growth picture, juxtaposed against an election that might, in some people's minds, create an economic policy variability and volatility how much does that factor into the fed's anticipated decision in just a few weeks' time? >> so, you know, nobody really obviously know what's going to happen with the presidential election, we'll start there, but even the congressional election. so even if you can make assumptions there and some sort of forecast, those things won't come into play until the middle part of 2025 probably at the earliest and so, you know, what the fed has to be doing right now is looking at the incoming sort of data what is that saying about the economy? the politics behind it is a

little bit of background noise once the smoke from the election clears and they have a better sense of what sort of policy changes may be coming from the new administration from capitol hill, then they can start to adjust their policy guidance at that point but right now, they've got to be laser focused on what's really happening in the economy >> jay bryson with a call of 1.25% worth of cuts at the fed by the end of this year. thank you very much. we'll talk to you soon have a nice weekend, jay >> you too, dom. so our next guest now thinks the market is getting ahead of itself by counting on aggressive rate cuts. he sees more volatility ahead of that september meeting, and he's ready to deploy cash on the pullbacks in thalias in particular so joining us now for more on that story is matt orton, chief market strategist at raymond james financial. if you look at what we just heard from jay with regard to the reasons why he thinks that the fed needs to cut by a half,

a half, a quarter, all by the end of december, it seems interesting that there is a divergent view strongly from your side why that should not happen why the view there >> yeah. hey, dom, great to see you two sides always make a market, right? while i don't disagree with any of the points that he made with respect to where we are on the economy, when i look at the totality of the data to steal a term from jay powell, i just don't see a tremendous amount of weakness in the labor market that exists today. when i talked to corporate management teams and travel around the country for client meetings, i don't get the sense, and i don't see mass layoffs that are going to come when you look historically, you just don't see significant layoffs and big cracks opening up to the fissures in the labor market when you have profit at 12.2%, the highest since one quarter in 2021.

so when you put that all together, coupled with the fact that we're still seeing earnings growth, we still have a healthy corporate sector, the need for more than a 25 basis point cut, i just don't think is there. and then there's also the signaling that has with the respect to the rest to have economy and having other market participants ask, are we missing something in this? so i just don't think that there is a need to go more than 25 basis points i think it's going to be part of a gradual cutting cycle. unless, of course, the data dictates otherwise >> matt, it's interesting you bring that up, because the number of traders and investors i have spoken to, we talk about this idea that there is still decently robust earnings growth amidst this backdrop that at one point this summer, 59% of americans say we're in a recession. it doesn't justify it, it doesn't justify the kind of valuations that we have. i say this because the dow and the s&p are now just a stone's throw away from the record high levels we saw earlier this summer how exactly then do things play

out in the coming moments, knowing that's the setup going into the fall? >> dom, i get that asked a lot by clients i was just at an event last night where we were talking about this the message i give to our clients is that when you have valuations where they are, where the market is, you know, priced to perfectionin some parts of it, there's still a lot of the average stocks that have not participated in this rally so far this year. so mega caps, even though they have been weaker over the past month, month and a half, they have dominated a lot of the pe multiple expansion, whereas your average stock, say the equal weighted s&p 500, is still trading at average valuations over the past 20, 30 years and that's where i'm looking for a lot of opportunity, where am i seeing a broadening of earnings growth finally starting to translate into price appreciation that's where you start to look for tangential plays on artificial intelligence, where you're seeing montization on a

lot of these themes and playing on misperceptions oh of a weak consumer there's still pockets of strength, and it's about leaning into those different themes, where the stocks are not at all yet priced fully >> matt, because you opened the door, i'm going to walk through it let's take us through the picks, the overall favorite ideas that you have given that set of context. >> so, dom, i think you alluded to it earlier. i think one of the most important baskets i've been talking about is artificial intelligence 2.0 so a lot of the main plays, nvidias, microsofts of the world, not to say that there isn't still value or still price appreciation potential there, but when you peel back the onion and look at where a lot of that cap ex from the hyper scalers is going to be spent, a lot is not just going to be spent in the semiconductor space, but on powering the data centers that are being built. it's actually on building the physical data centers, and it's

on the wiring, all the connectivity that makes it possible so i've been looking a lot at electrical equipment companies, companies that are providing the cooling solutions to the data centers. they have been strong performers, they have pulled back, so it's a great time to deploy more capital into some of those names. when you look at some of the industrial names, maybe some machinery names that are building the data centers, there's a lot of earnings momentum that you are starting to see pick up in that part of the market, too. and then you look at utilities you know, actually bringing the power to the data centers is a huge, huge problem there's just not enough of it. so there's probably going to be trillions of dollars invested over the next three to five years in building out and modernizing our grid so it's about finding the winners within that space of who is actually going to be getting a lot of those federal and private dollars to build out what we need to make ai a reality. >> all right so the top picks there, alphabet, vertiv holdings and

axon matt, thank you very much for the view there a nice balance of what we just heard from jay bryson. have a nice weekend. >> you, too. thanks so for more on the market and the insights we just had, tune in tonight to cnbc's special "taking stock" mosted by our own mike santoli at 6:00 p.m. eastern time tonight right here on cnbc coming up on the show, kamala harris headlining the final night of the dnc after the break, we'll look ahead to what's next in the race for the white house and the role that influencers and social media could play plus, home builders trading at new record highs after the new home sales numbers hit their highest level in over a year we'll look at the health of the housing market and the hidden costs of living in the sun belt. "the exchange" is back after this >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc

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nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing. welcome back to "the exchange." kamala harris is now officially the democratic nominee for president, having formally accepted in a speech last night. our eamon jabbers have the highlights julia boarston has a look at the role that social media influencers are playing in the 2024 election, and eomon, we kick it off with you >> dom, that's right the democratic party did this

week what a lot of people thought a month ago was impossible,they united the party, energized their political base, and they've swapped out their nominee in just one month's time a lot of folks thought that simply wouldn't be possible. but they were able to execute and really get that enthusiasm going among the base through the course of the week here's what kamala harris said last night in terms of her approach to the economy. >> i will bring together labor and workers and small business owners and entrepreneurs, and american companies to create jobs, to grow our economy, and to lower the cost of everyday needs, like health care and housing and groceries. we will provide access to capital for small business owners and entrepreneurs and founders >> and so what do you do once you locked up and energized your

political base that's when you reach out to independents, moderates and even some republicans we saw the democratic party doing that through the course of the week a number of republicans speaking at this convention, a number of former trump officials and aides speaking at this convention, urging people who are republicans, who are not happy with trump to vote for harris, saying you can come over to this party. so that's the outreach to republicans who might be wary of another trump term and now what we're going to see is whether all of that energy in the room, among those people who are delegates after all, they are the democratic base, whether that can translate into the polls, which we will watch for over the coming days and whether the democrats can capitalize on the campaign trail >> what is next, exactly, for the harris campaign on this campaign trail >> well, the first thing is a couple days off. we're told kamala harris is coming back here to washington,

to the vice president's residence. tim walz, her running mate, is going ing back to minnesota. the next big thing people will be looking for here is possibly a big set piece interview with kamala harris and tim walz, given a joint interview to presumably a major media outlet. it could be influencers, folks on social media, we'll see but that is the next big expected set piece in this campaign, dom. >> thank you very much for that. let's now turn to the growing role of social media influencers in this election julia has that story >> that's right, dom influencers are playing a meaningful role in this election, as campaigns look for authentic voices to connect with younger voters where they are, which is on social media the democratic democratic national convention credentialed over 200 influencers, and these people are not just creating organic content, some are also getting paid by political action committees to post harris' campaign does not pay

influencers. new research by marketing firm billion dollar boy finds 28% of u.s. creators say they have been approved by political organizations to produce content ahead of this election now, there is no measure of -- official measure of political influencer marketing, because the spending is coming from pacs, but it's increased as much as five terms from the midterms. xomad has up to 100,000 followers, connecting those smaller influencers with about 50 campaigns this season who pay around $5,000 for multiple posts about a candidate. now, these smaller influencers are more appealing to campaigns because they are more locally targeted, and they can feel more authentic and relatable. they say it's a lot easier to create influencers to market for

harris than biden, and democrats are doing more influencer marketing than republicans are >> when you work in media, and you work in washington, d.c. or in politics at all, and when you work on wall street or anywhere else, disclosures are the rule do these influencers have to disclose if they are getting paid by a certain campaign camp or candidate >> well, here's the interesting thing, dom it varies on a state-by-state basis. most states do not mandate that there is disclosure, but we see they are not asking for disclosures. so you're likely to see a disclosure, just like you'll see a hash tag promoted post if someone is promoting a product to their followers on instagram. >> a brave new world julia, thank you very much see you later on coming up, robo taxi company

cruise is teaming up with uber we'll tell you how soon it could be coming to a city near you "the exchange" is back after is th (grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

welcome back to "the exchange." i'm kate rogers with your cnbc news update. joe biden reportedly asked israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu on a call wednesday to pull israeli forces from a part of the egypt/gaza border so cease-fire and hostage negotiations could move forward, according to axios netanyahu's demand to occupy a key corridor on the border has become a major point of contention in negotiations a massachusetts judge today denied karen reed's motion to dismiss two charges against her, including second degree murder in her retrial she hit her boston police officer boyfriend with suv and left him to die a mistrial was declared in july, but the defense argued they heard from several jurors the jury voted to acquit her or the most serious charges a volcano erupted in iceland. the eruption has since slowed, but it did still force some

evacuations. dom, back to you >> thank you very much, kate rogers for the news update there. uber is teaming up with gm's cruise as it looks to expand driverless rides this comes as a crucial time for the autonomous vehicle company as it looks to requme operations deidre bosa has more in today's "tech check. good afternoon, dei. >> that's right, critical time for cruise, and that may be why uber shares fell on the announcement cruise is a very complicated partner. in addition to what you just mentioned, it recalled 1200 robo taxis over a heartbreaking issue following an incident here in san francisco where one of its robo taxis dragged a pedestrian. some are saying some of that cruise stigma rubs off on uber shares are recovering, but cruise is far from the only

autonomous driver uber has signed up with they said -- >> so we'll be on the lookout for that i want to say overall, this is very different than the approach that the uber co-founder believed was critical. travis callinick wanted to develop driverless technology in house, and if he didn't, they said they would face an existential threat from the wamo and cruises of the world so this is a real departure. they chose instead to partner, which is a much, much cheaper way to go about this but dom, i've been riding a ton of wamo robo taxis in san francisco. you do not go through the uber app like you do if you were to hail a ride share in phoenix, for example. so you can see a world in which wamo takes out the middleman, takes out uber that's one of the bear cases against the ride sharing

platforms, is that they could ultimately be squeezed out if robo taxis take off. >> it wasn't as fancy or as forceful and momentum driven as the ai trade, but autonomous driving and robotics was a massive theme not long ago what exactly was the main reason, in your mind, why the momentum has just really slowed down for this particular story around autonomous riding and taxis? >> i think it's so interconnected with the ai trade, right it uses a lot of the same technology google has been developing this for a long time. they happen to be leaders in generative ai. there's a lot of overlap, so it's just a coming back down to earth, realizing that montization, revenue, that's still far away we're still in the early innings. and while we're there, this is going to be very expensive to develop, just like generative ai >> deidre bosa with today's "tech check. thank you very much. home builders are hitting

new all-time highs the shv home builder's etf is having its best week since july. meantime, taylor morrison is closing in on its own record high here's what the ceo said about the boost that they are seeing from lower interest rates. >> we've seen about a 50 basis point reduction in the last 30 days, and we immediately saw a pickup in our traffic as we talked about on our earnings call and there was a huge demand out there. at the other end, we are still seeing some affordability challenges, but an reduction in interest rates, and i think the likely action from the fed here in the next few weeks will only continue to help okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet,

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welcome back to "the exchange." on the heels of a strong, existing home sales number, new home sales soared in july as a drop in mortgage rates boosted demand sales coming in stronger than expected, climbing 10.6% to a

seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000 units, the highest level in more than a year. and the sharpest increase in nearly two years and while housing affordability is still improving nationwide, new problems are still popping up now in the sun belt the hot part of the market joining me now with an in depth look at the real estate side of things is andy walden, bess friedman, and david tinsley. thank you to the three of you for being here let's start with the macro markets overall with regard to the state of real estate so i'll turn to you, bess, for that one do we see some building positive mow pementum in the market becae of the rate picture right now? >> good afternoon. nice to be with everyone yeah, i think the consumer perception is improving, and i

think what chairman powell said today has been helpful he's indicated that if we continue in this direction, that there will most likely be a fed fund cut in september, which would be good. so i think momentum has been positive i'm not getting ahead of myself, but it's -- rates have come down they're the lowest they've been in 15 months so we're seeing a pickup in volume buyers are getting off the sidelines. so, yes, right now we're in a decent place and feeling very positive coming into the september market >> andy, this is an interesting discussion in context of where rates were five to six years ago versus where they are right now. yes, they're lower than they were at the peak, but there are still folks out there that have 30-year fixed rate mortgages with 2 and three handles on them by the time we're done how much is this going to trigger some housing activity? >> if you look at the last couple of times, this is the

first time we've been in this range since last year. we got somewhat in this range earlier this year, as well the last two times you moved into this 6.5% or below range, you have seen demand return to the markets. you have seen home prices pick up and buyers return so i think that's the broad expectation here, and i think it's worth noting when you look at those july home sales, those were driven by high 6% rates june was driven by low 7% rates. we're now in the sub-6.5% range, as well. so that puts a boost behind some of these numbers >> so the housing dynamic, dave, i'll turn to you for this, i would like to know about the movement, because there's a case that was made, and it seems logical, that folks have those silver/golden hand cuffs with the mortgage rates they refinanced into a number of years ago. is there a way that becomes unfrozen, even if rates aren't as low as they were four, five years ago. >> we shouldn't forget the

first-time buyer in all this when we look at our data and track, that was down 25% in '22, 15% in '23 but now it's pretty much flat. and within that data, it's the younger, lower income people that are moving, and our report suggested like 60% of these movers are happening for affordability reasons. so there's a lot of people, i think, a lot of young, perhaps lower income households looking for the opportunity to buy in that same survey, we asked renters where they want to be in five years' time 90% of them say they want to own. so there's a lot of people first-time buyers who are on the high sidelines

>> bess, the story over the course of the last several years has been around the institutional ownership in real estate and how there's a crowding out effect for the first-time home buyers and those people that want to move from renting to owning. i wonder if what you have seen in the business, is there a chance that first-time and maybe second-time home buyers have a real shot at getting the house of their dreams in this kind of a market >> yeah, i think there's always that opportunity we have to keep in mind that rates are still historically very low it's just that we have a short memory, and people have their brains wrapped around the 2%, 3% but we're not going to see that for a very long time so there's plenty of opportunity, not only for a first-time home buyer, but people who are -- you know, cycle of life, moving for new jobs, having families. unfortunately, losing loved ones, going through a divorce. they continue to have to buy and

sell, because the market is there to serve them, not instruct them. and so, you know, people don't necessarily look at rates and say oh, you know, i'm not going to get into the markets. sometimes you have to get into the market, and you can always think about refinancing later on and do something a little bit different and lock in a better rate so i'm somewhat optimistic about where we are >> bess has an interesting point here andy, if you take away and look at the way mortgages are used, you know, there's a plethora of tools in the toolbox at this point. what does the data suggest to you about the types of movement that we are seeing in certain parts of the mortgage market are we back to using a.r.m.s. a lot, sowzero interest mortgages, what does the mortgage picture look like from a business stand point the >> you certainly see a variety of different things. in 2023, it was interest rate

buydowns to reduce your interest rate for a temporary period of time for folks you've seen some similar behavior among adjust about rate mortgages as well where folks jumped in. we're not talking anything similar to what we saw prior to the get financial crisis, but folks are trying to find ways to afford the environment that we're in right now, while we wait for interest rates to come down i think there was an interesting point made about migration, as well i think that's one way folks are getting around affordability not only is the midwest more affordable than the rest of the country, but it's affordable compared to its averages if you look at california, that's just not the case so you are seeing folks use migration as one of their tools to get into some of these more affordable markets in the midwest that have been priced out of some of these more expensive markets. >> david, last word here i'm holding in my hand your latest research port titled "on the move, hidden costs and

slowing spending." that migration is huge many of our audience have my greated to certain points like the sun belt what exactly is that dynamic like if you go to florida and texas and anywhere else down south? >> what we are highlighting this that report really is that affordability in terms of house prices go to the south, obviously it's deteriorated somewhat in parts of the south, miami being an example but there are some hidden costs that are making people cautious. home insurance is the obvious one. in texas, florida, 25% or so of property insurance on the last five years perhaps some worries about climate change and how that might affect the liveability of those areas going forward and the cost on utilities and insurance. so there is a lot to consider in these moves, other than just the mortgage rate, i think >> bess, i lied, because i'm

going to give you the last word. you're the real tour here. all real estate is local your clients are very much in the new york metro area and florida, as well take us through what you think is the dynamic there, for those people who thought about moving to florida or are already there. >> as we know during the pandemic, we saw lot of people leave new york city and go to florida or move to connecticut but we've seen a migration back to the city. so it just really depends on what people want, what they need, their circumstances, where they want to be, where their work is. so the challenge we see really in real estate right now is a lack of inventory. we have high demand. we don't have enough inventory in places like florida and connecticut. new york has a pretty decent amount of inventory right now, and so i think it just depends on what people want. but, you know, overall, we have seen in the market in the last few months pick up i think rates, inflation, all those things are very positive,

and the economy, you know, has been steady. so i'm pretty bullish on the real estate market as we enter september, october, and november so i have a positive outlook, i guess. >> all right i think you have to be if you work in real estate right now. andy, bess, steven, thank you very much for that and david tinsley, as well have a nice weekend to each of you. thanks, guys coming up on the show, warby parker is higher today but analysts warn the path forward will likely be volatile. shares are up 10% on that, and on pace for their best day since may. a check on some of the other big movers is coming up next they rs with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking...

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welcome back to "the exchange." we just discussed housing and now we've got a news alert on

the justice department's suit against toma bravo's real page eamon with the latest. >> that suit dropped earlier today, alleging that real page engaged in collusion a first ofs in which they're saying that what happened here was that the algorithm itself used in this real page software for real estate landlords actually encouraged the landlords to collude and raise prices for consumers. now we've got a statement from the white house, and this is an interesting one from the white house. "we do not have a comment on the doj's antitrust suit against real page. the biden/harris administration has made clear that no one should pay higher prices because of corporate law breaking. we continue to take all available actions to lower housing costs from enacting the

largest increase in federal rent assistance in decades to freeing up federal lands for affordable housing. so, clearly, dom, the white house seeing this department of justice antitrust case as part of a larger political issue of high prices in the united states, high real estate prices, and high rents they clearly want to make that political point out technically commenting on the real page lawsuit itself in order to maintain the department's independence here. >> all right, the latest on the dynamic there in real estate eamon, thank you very much keep it right here "the exchange" is back after this ♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪

my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. ♪♪ data science can help address some of the biggest challenges in financial markets. if we focus on the mortgage market and follow the life of a loan from origination right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars. the property, the mortgage and mortgage performance. this trifecta of data and its history is a bit of a data scientist's holy grail. ♪♪

nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing.

don't call it a comeback, yet anyway we've got the trades on companies undergoing overhauls here with our trades are danielle shay with peloton those shares are down 95% in the last three years but having its best day ever yesterday on better than expected quarterly results and a new focus on profitability. danielle, what makes you a buyer of peloton >> when you look at peloton, i'm not going to pretend like the fundamental case has changed here, and i don't want to look at this as a long-term investment but as a trader, when you have a company that has high

short float and then you get earnings reactions like this, this can provide a trading opportunity. so, we've seen now two days of upwards price action we've broken through overhead resistance, and with that short float, you have traders out there that have to buy to cover, so with this one, what i'm doing is i'm buying some september calls, buying those at the money, and i just want to trade it up into about $6 a share so that i can trade that momentum as we continue to get that short covering >> all right, that's peloton next up, gap shares up more than 20% off its all-time highs but shares are rising steadily in recent months as it works to attract buyers with newer and trendier styles. why buy gap? >> well, you know, consumers are very discernable right now and with this company, we can see with the earnings reactions that they've been doing something right. it's traded higher five quarters in a row after earnings, and again, you have this high short float here, so when you can see

that there's a company that's reacting well after earnings reports, what i like to do is i like to come in, and if i'm going to trade that before the report, then i generally like to buy the calls in the earnings series and trade that up into the report, getting out of them before the report just for pre-earnings trade, or if you prefer, you can just buy the long-term stock, because with something like this, i mean, if they have another earnings beat, they can gap up yet again and see more short covering after the report so, i think either way to trade it would be fine depending on your style, but i like the way that the stock is trading here, and i'd like to bet on it to the upside >> finally, paypal is down nearly 75% in the past three years as it lost market share following the virus pandemic investors are expressing some recent optimism. you like paypal, why >> so, i think that i'm cautiously optimistic on paypal, not so much as the others, just because it doesn't have the high

short float, but you can see again that you have shifted with the earnings story two quarters in a row, we've traded higher, which that's, you know, what i like to see i think it's a little bit late to get in right now, but i want to keep an eye on it because i think that if it breaks up above $75 a share, that we could easily trade it up into 80 and $85. if we hit resistance there, no trade, just wait until it bulls back >> the bail is nike, why >> three quarters in a row, up and down on earnings yes, we've rallied recently, but retailed directly into res resistance and typically investors bail on shares like these before earnings because they've been doing so poorly >> all right, danielle shay, thank you so much. that does it for t ehexchange. "power lunch" is coming up i'll see you on the other side of this break.

you get comfortable being uncomfortable. ♪♪ the enemy is always adapting... deepfake: hey handsome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] ...always iterating. ♪♪

♪ what a day welcome to "power lunch," i'm dominic chu and it's a big day for the markets as fed chair jay powell seemed to do what the markets expected and wanted. he laid the groundwork for a fed rate cut at the next meeting in mid-september, and right now, stocks are bid you can see almost 1% gains for the down and the s&p 500, a 1% gain for the tech-heavier nasdaq composite index. that's how things currently stand. and check out these numbers.