>> home builder trade and think about the second derivative and that takes you to the favorite name over the last five years, breaking out. >> you are still optimistic on those builders and the derivatives of that. >> i do. we have a transactional recession in housing that will unlock. >> good stuff. >> thanks, everybody. i'll see you on "the closing bell" at 3:00. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. will powell deliver what the market wanted? nvidia, its results are on deck this wednesday and tech is on deck even as the dow makes new highs and they're making one big name on the dip and he joins us to explain that ahead and the consumer continues to seek value and mizuho is out with new data on spending and they had the price target on one under the radar food name because of it and cause we like mystery charts so much, here is one more

and the bullish pick over at baird. the stock trading at a 52-week high today and the analyst sees multiple catalysts for it to go higher from here. he joins us, as well. before those reveals, let's start with the markets. dom chu with the numbers. >> normally as many our viewers and listeners know i focus on the broader s&p 500 as being the more indicative measure of the marks, but today i'll focus on the dow and i'll put the star right up here right off the bat and we did hit a record level currently at 41,291 and it's up 111 points and a quarter percent gain. it's modest. it was double that gain earlier on the session and the new high watermark for the dow for those curious is 41,420. we're at 41,288 currently, but that is now the new record, intraday high level for the dow and the s&p is down just about the same amount, about 0.2% and

64.24, the last trade and the nasdaq composite it's 17,745. it's up 142 points and it's a real laggard and it's up three-quarters of 1% and it's dragging down that particular nasdaq trade. on the macro side of things. u.s. benchmark, west texas intermedia and it is up 3% and a decent move heier back above the 77 handle and this little move higher and you can see in context, though, not much happening over the last year. we're still down 3.5% and some concerns about her geoissue and a lot of confluences and she's drifting crude prices higher and we'll see whether or not we do see this move higher in the crude prices and the tech heavy trade is very much semiconductor focused today. if you take a look at nvidia and earnings come out after the

closing bell and all among names that are down 2% to 4% and the semiconductor ticker is down 2% and i know, kelly, we like talking about these things and just to give you an idea of what's going to happen. the options market is currently pricing in a plus or minus 11% move. >> wow! >> -- in the heel of those shares and nvidia very much a late-season reporter, but the main event this week. i'll send things back to you. >> what would you say, just gut feel, how many times do they live up to what they build? i would say more often than not. >> here's what's happened. it's gotten more expensive in the last couple of weeks and i rememberec whiching prices it was in the plus or minus 8%, 9% range and we've drifted higher. >> thank you very much, dom chu. for the first time in several years the fed and global bankers met in jack own hole in the absence of a crisis, but they do face a challenge ahead.

economicreporter steve liesman is here. if you do simple cause and effect razor style, powell spoke friday and the dow is at an all-time high and it seems like the markets liked the dovishness they heard from him. >> they were kind of waiting for the all-clear, kelly. there's more to say about that. i want to give you i don't know if it's the reporter's notebook version of my reporting from jackson hole because everybody focused on the big headline that fed chair jay powell signaled rate cuts ahead and there was a notable calm and a sense of having emerged from the crisis so i went back and looked at the data. here's '24 versus the prior two years and '22 they gathered 55% probability according to the fed survey taken just before the meeting back then. 9% cpi, the fed was up and it

was a still elevated recession risk and rates were signalled to remain on hold and that's exactly what they did this year and a diminished recession probability and the much lower inflation and the market predicting 200 basis points of cuts to come. i don't know if that's the case, but here's the kind of keys to that calm that were out there. the fed has ammunition to address weakness if it emerges and can do so quickly, and the central banks still remained restrictive and there's pressure on inflation and a big story, the emerging markets did not blow up despite fears that the rate hikes in the strong dollar could cause a hiccup in the global system. still challenges ahead. some committee members said they want to move more slowly than others and maintain to higher rates and compared to prior years, it's the election and fiscal deficits about the pace of cuts and there was crystal clear clarity about the direction and no immediate sense of crisis. >> and what else, steve, would

you say if i were powell looking at the market reaction, and of course, it depends on the next few weeks as well. >> is this what they wanted? the only thing i wondered about is those that fed officials themselves have cited about the stock market as one reason to be cautious about the extent to which they come out with rate cut, you know? and just wonder if there's more to read into that in terms of stocks or at least the dow going to new highs today. >>. >> well, i do think that when you're cutting and reducing rates you do want the market to go with you and they won't be disappointed in the loosening of financial conditions. you've seen rate comes down and you see the stock market rally and this is what the fed will want. again, it doesn't want to see things go haywire and doesn't want a bubble to be created which is why, by the way, i think they'll hold the rings a little bit and i'm telegraphing

how far you want to go and even some of the dubs i talked about because we just don't know. they'll have to watch it and i'll talk about this tomorrow, kelly, is this big debate over where the neutral rate and a lot of disagreement in the academic community and a lot of disagreement among officials and this is a big story if you can imagine you're outside trying to open your car -- okay, this is the old days and you dropped your keys and you're groping around to see where your keys are and it's the fed searching and seeking for neutral. >> i think in many cases it still applies. steve, thank you for now. we appreciate it. steve liesman. >> sure. >> mizuho is out with a new survey outlining the pressure consumers have been facing in the food sector and while things

are tight, things are solid in the higher end and both groups have s.t.a.r.t.ed to show start. 60% say they plan to cut spending in the next three to six months and this comes as credit card balances have been ticking upward which could point tomore moderation ahead and mizuho is covering the health and living space. good to have you here. you've been doing the survey for how many years? >> about 15. >> so with that experience and that track record coming into it what stands out the most this year about the consumer? >> i think it's really just the increase in pullback in restaurant spending. you've seen it in in the news and special reports especially with the high-end consumer and over the past year, the low end has been reining it in with the home. and the high has been a big

standout. do you draw results with what you do with certain stock as a result? >> not necessarily, but from a macro perspective, you see that food volumes have been weak for the pastyea year and seeing the calorie shifting over we have seen a steady increase and improvement in grocery volleying since december and it is down 3%, 3.5% expect and now they're flat and that is improvement for the end of the year. >> in other words, grocery prices shot up first and restaurant prices have also been going up. i don't know if you have fast food in the mix and that is one in particular, but across the board and now it seems that people are shifting back, maybe looking to groceries, but is that shift enough to make you kind of bullish on those names or are they still also under pressure? >> no. we're bullish on food in general. there are concerns out there about price competition and discounting and where we're seeing the pricing pressure is in restaurants and deep values this summer and the food costs

haven't decreased at all and we see a lot more pressure and pricing in the discretionary space as opposed to consumer staples and at the end of the day folks have to eat and yes, we may have some months or quarters and it's softer, but overall we do expect continued growth in volumes. >> the consumer staples are trading at all-time highs and you have walmart and costco in there, but even some of the traditional food providers at a time when consumers are value conscious any going back to the discussion with elizabeth warren on friday who says that these companies a lot of the times she's referring to is company in the grocery store are raising prices beyond their profits. is there anything here that would give us an idea whether that would be the case or not in recent years. >> qualitative, looking at this space and it's a slow growth industry and a lot of competition and if you get out and priced too high and they'll take market share and other brands and they'll take market share. it's very difficult to price in

excess of the market for a material period of time. you look at xcommodities over te past two years and 20 to 30% year on year and with the food ppi with pricing 13% at the peak and there's really nothing out of the ordinary quantitatively with commodity moves and the pricing being put through to retailers and the last point is looking at profitability overall elf and this is not a price versus cost raw materials setup. you also have a lot of efficiency savings and modernizing factories and getting more efficiencies and you're seeing 3% to 4% a year in efficiency savings and some of that is passed the bottom line and innovation drive sales. >> give me the state of play. which stocks do you feel more exciteded about. where are you more cautious? >> in the market we believe you should have a filter where you have tailwinds and looking for companies that have less private

label exposure and ideally getting new distribution. if you do have softness in the core market and having softness in cat forry demand and new geographies to offset on the sales basis. so you like snacking like mondelez, half of the company's growth outside of the u.s. is coming from new distribution, number one. number two, midcap, another company gaining distribution. >> yeah. and number three in the health and wellness space we have the maker of protein shakes getting distribution, more capacity and more household penetration. >> with this survey, the takeaway is the pullback in restaurant spend. is this a recessionary kind survey for you or what does that tell you with what's happening with the consumer and the macro right now? >> it's economization and it's one of the overlooked factors where it seems too simplistic to be impactful. what we see is historically with the plus 1% inflation and 15% to

20% of households and it seems 40 to 45% over the last two years and it's not hard to get it down 2% or 3%. >> you survey them about their leftovers. >> that's right. leftovers consumption. >> leftover consumption is twice as high as normal. that was my big takeaway. >> john baumgartner with mizuho. they may be warning of a slowdown ahead and there's one restaurant chain that'see seein an 18% bump in sales. joining us is a.j. and ceo of raising cane's. you are certainly on the map that you weren't a couple of years ago and you've had quite a bit of growth and welcome to the show. >> thank you very much for having me. >> give us the big back story with for those of us getting familiar with the concept. >> we've been in business for 28 years. we opened our first restaurant in 1986 on august 28th and we're

turning 28 in a couple of days here and we do one thing better than everyone else is the chicken fingers, fries, toast, a little bit of sauce to go and that is our meal, and we've been doing this consistently for a long time. unlike what john mentioned earlier in the segment we don't get into value play and limited time offers, et cetera. we stay focused on one thing all the time. >> have you taken price in recent years or passed it along to the consumer? bring us inside of some of those decisions and kind of the expenses you're dealing with versus how much prices have gone up. >> oh, absolutely, kelly. you know, restaurant business runs on razor-thin margins. so with the labor inflation that you're seeing and with the food inflation that you're seeing, we've absolutely had to take pride in protecting the margins and continue sur vague the high-quality meal and the cravable meal that we promised the customers and the crew

members which is core to who we are. that said, we have stayed and protect the margins where we could and continue focusing on long-term plans for our business. so we've grown a lot for the last several years through the pandemic and it will continue to grow somewhere between 20% to 30% every year. in packfact, this year, we've b if restaurant sales for 15 years in a row and 62 quarters and counting. we've been up in sales and most of that through traffic. very little, if any, through prize and this year alone, we are up 15%. success quarter 18% compounded for the year and predominantly all by traffic. yes, we have taken some price, but not more than what we should. >> i see these post malone and

you partner with influencers and do you think you're taking share from mcdonald's, burger king and the more traditional places that people would have gone to in the past to get chicken fingers? >> i do think we've been fortunate. we've had crazy following from big-name celebrities to the common man alike. we've continued to grow with all of that push, if you may, through our consumers. that middle, the share has to come from somewhere. we have always stayed true to when we do, so when people tried the value play, take a hit on the food and their sizes and adjust their prices, et cetera, we are known for the everyday value. so people come to us for that cravable chicken finger meal experience and they know they can count on it. they know they can count on a great experience, so i think that's working for us, and my guess is yes, we are taking some share because we don't have 20% population growth and it has to come from somewhere. >> true.

what's the average ticket for a customer? or the price of a typical menu entree? >> it's about $10 per-person average. >> interesting. that is about in line. are you having a streaming service like chick-fil-a is planning to do? >> oh, my gosh, we have so much to do so we're not going to do per than that. we will put our head down and continue working. we have a hundred strawrestaura. we have 828 restaurants on 8:/2 and we are callingin it the goln bud day. no streaming for us. >> we talked about profit margins. so are your profit margins stable over the past couple of years and have they increased and have they decreased? >> honestly, pretty stable because we have to keep the margins right where they are to be able to continue investing in new restaurant growth. we are a company-owned concept.

we do not franchise, so we need to protect those margins. i will say in some states, california, which we've seen ahead of the curve inflation in wages, for example, through the fast act. there we are seeing a slight decline in percentage of our margins and otherwise, pretty stable through the history. >> a.j., come back and visit us soon. it's parent to point out your chains who are growing quickly and we had kava on the other day where even though consumers were pulling back overall and innovation can still win. thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. >> a.j.kumaran. raising cane's ceo and coo. >> that's the goal the vice president harris' housing plan and while the price tag of nearly a quarter trillion dollars might normally be considered a non-starter in washington, there is a potential path toward some of the tax credit ideas and first, powell,

giving the green light to cut rates and it could spark a wave of consumer spending according to one portfolio manager. he's got three household names poised to benefit and we'll reveal it next with the dow hitting a record high for the first time since july 11th. "the exchange" is back after ♪ ♪ bce"n is is "the exchang o cn. oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot ♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪

why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. pete g. writes, “my tween wants a new phone." fund investment objectives, "how do i not break the bank?" we gotcha, pete. xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig.

so you get high speeds for low prices. better than getting low speeds for high prices. -right, bruce? jealous? yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. get a free unlimited line for a year when you add one unlimited line. plus, get a new google pixel 9 on us. bring on the good stuff. welcome back to "the exchange." the dow hitting a fresh record

high and the si&p and nasdaq ar lower. could nvidia's earnings later this week turn things around? my next guest is bullish on tech and ai saying large caps are mostly now fairly valued. joining me is max wasserman. welcome. >> thank you. >> this is such a funny introduction because you and i were sharing our love for -- i don't know if you want to call it value investing and that's the perfect entry to explain a little bit about what you think these stocks are worth. >> sure. if you look at technology, large-caps specifically, right? they're trading at incredible multiples and pulling forward earnings for the next several years and now everything's tied in n vad and no now nvidia is the posterchild and they're looking at nvidia not only for the growth and what type of growth, will it keep going? have we hit peak and what does it look like? so now people will need justification for the

stratosphere that it's in, and if you look at asymmetrical return on this thing, when everyone's focused and everyone is positive it could be bigger than the upside from here and we caution why we like the ai stock. the valuations are really astronomical. >> that makes more sense. >> so do you hold nvidia? >> no, we don't. >> do you think it's overvalued? >> i think it's hard to value these momentum-type stocks and when we have an investment in broadcom, microsoft, apple and those type of companies, that being said, how do you value these things when every single quarter they're doubling, tripling and they keep telling you more, but we tell you, the higher you go up in the air you are starting to lose it. acceleration upward, it's hard to keep up and the problem is everyone is predicating their valuations on ai seems to be on the stock. so if it disappoints in the progression of where they see things going, watch out. then people will reevaluate the sector. still good long term, but these

valuations and this moment up are carried away. >> it's almost like you value this one from a mark cap and not the p-e point of view and obviously the p-e was much lower than when you realize at the time and when you have a $3 trillion company and people say you'll double, is that possible? >> it's reality, of course. >> and perception. what are you willing to pay. >> right. once you manage risk. if you're managing money, right? you're looking at the risk reward and is it in your favor to buy a 4% 5% and you may dabble in it and you may start it and these things are not giving you much room on the upside. >> what price to you and maybe it's a psychological thing and it is down 30% or 40% ask it's time it take the 5% stake and it sounds like you're nowhere near that point yet. >> when you have predictionible earnings and predictable growth rate. when i don't feel like i'm stretching and every single analyst is done touting it, it makes me happier, right? when everyone is saying buy something i feel like minute in

the background is selling a bit of it. when you get the incomes out and it gives you an opportunity and we look at it for that way and we want some little, not everybody jumping into the bandwagon. which ones are the ones that you feel comfortable taking in a position right now. >> we have investments and microsoft, app and broadcom. thenew one we're starting to buy is google. here you have a stock that's 20 points off its high and it's 19 times earnings and everyone's worried about the government, but this is really the ai, right? we heard apple, microsoft, if you look long term they dominate the search business and regardless of what device you're using, it's there. so we think that's going to be a stock that can really give you multiple even one or two times multiples more, but at 19 times, everyone is sort of worried about the government. that's a good entry point. >> sure. >> we are starting to accumulate that stock at this price. 160, 165. again, for a long-term investor

and we look at everything not just for the next 90 days and we're looking at the next 18 to 24 months and is there anything that jump out at you right now? >> for a pullback, it's hard in the chip sector and it's really difficult. i would say if microsoft could pull back some more and right now it's really hard as the dividend growth investor to say okay. i'm willing to go too far out because there's not a lot of yield in the companies and it's more predicated on growth and how much am i willing to pay for these stocks. i don't feel comfortable in the new positions. >> outside of tech, what are you most excited or anywhere you have been trimming. we trimmed there and we have texas instruments that we've been bringing down a little bit. i like defense. general dynamics and lockheed. they've been running up lately and the world is really crazy right now.

general dynamics specifically because 20% is aerospace and it's the gulfstream and as they bring in the g7 private planes on that should help the bottom line and we like that area. also, now the fed is telling us they'll cut interest rates, right? how quickly, who knows? but if you look at it you'll see another 200 bases points coming out and the fed funds rate 530, so companies that can benefit. if you like housing and you think interest rates will come down, home depot. >> home depot, yes, it's run a little bit and people have pent-up demand and mortgage rates do come down in the 5% range. if people can free up some equity. >> definitely. home up provements should benefit and mcdonald's is a consumer company and again, different price point, they should benefit more and people should put more money in their pockets and hershey chocolates, we're going into that time year.

>> we have someone who loves hershey's. >> they still have organic, 2%, 3% and we like those companies that should benefit. >> and a lot of people have been looking to small caps as a rate cut play and they're still struggling with this mid-summer if you want to call it turning point and i don't know if the russell is per se, would you dabble in small caps? >> we're really focused and we target at 3% and it's not there, and we don't want to dabble or look at momentum for short periods. we need sustainable, economic cycle that we can benefit from. max, it's good to see you, especially, take a pulse of portfolio with nvidia reporting on wednesday andwell see how the market reacts and maybe it will be time to build it, probably not. it may tack a few years. max wasserman from miramar

capital. it's the tech story taking silicon valley by storm. the billionaire founder and ceo of a powerful social media platform arrested outside of paris and what elon musk is saying about it next and look at solar edge after announcing the sudden resignation of the ceo. shares are down 7% and they were stale for over a month. we're back after this.

tamra, izzy and emma... they respond to emails with phone-calls... and they don't "circle back" they're already there. they wear business sneakers and pad their keyboards with something that makes their clickety- clacking... clickety-clackier. but no one loves logistics as much as they do. you need tamra, izzy and emma. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours.

since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts

to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] ♪ not ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." everybody. i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update. former president trump suggests he might back out of the debate over the issue of muted mikes while not answering a debate question. at a stop in northern virginia, he said the network was hostile to republicans. the suggestion seemed to undercut earlier arguments that he would be fine with unmuted mikes. in home care services platform care.com agreed today to pay $8.5 million to settle ftc charges over inflated numbers of available jobs in membership cancellations and the ftc said the platform enticed people to buy auto-renewing memberships by overstating the number of open jobs on the

platform and then mislead customers into thinking they canceled and the settlement, care did not admit any wrongdoing. and the yankees jersey worn by babe ruth just became the most expensive piece of sports memorabilia ever sold. the jersey worn in game three of the 1932 world series sold sunday for $24 million. the prior record, a topps mickey mantel card sold for $12.6 million. >> tyler, thanks, and welcome back. i'll see you next hour. tyler mathisen. we're getting new details in a story roiling the tech world today. the found are of dubai-based telegraph arrested in france over the content moderation approximately sees. prosecutors say his arrest is tied to an investigation open last month into charges of complicit and various crimes including the distribution of child pornography, drug sales and money laundering and the

refusal to work with law enforcement. let's bring in deirdre bosa with today's tech check. what do we know? >> that release you mentioned from the french prosecutors out in the last hour, a long list of charges and some of them you mentioned. the founder pavel durov was questioned and will remain in custody until august 25th, but to really understand why the story matters you need to understand the role that telegram, the app plays. this is one of the biggest social media apps in the world. it has nearly a billion users and it's a critical communication tool in conflict zones including russia-ukraine war and especially with those users is it's security through encryption, but as many in tech circles, here are pointing out it's a very nuanced encryption that makes it possible to see certain messages and potentially using it as an espionage tool and pavel runs the company pretty much on his own, something like 30 employees and also for his arrest, could

ability for social media platforms and it's been used as a rallying cry for freedom of speech. telegram has long been on the radar of law enforcement agencies for its light approach to moderation and illicit activity on the platform and france is taking the lead in line with what we have seen from european regulators and intensifying pressure tech companies to address this information and harmful content especially when it compares to when we're doing here in the u.s. in that vein, an american company caught in the crosshairs over data protection and this morning uber was fined with the $324 million fined in the netherlands for a data breach under gdp and uber in a statement said it will appeal and calls the decisions flies and is completely unjustified and it underscores europe's aggressive touch when it comes to regulating tech and there will certainly be more to come here. >> i'm curious to hear any details that we have about all of this. have there been similar arrests prior to him, was he -- or

telegram in particular seen as allowing for behavior that other platforms do not -- and telegram is certainly seen as looser with its moderation policies. the company in a statement to us said that they comply with all eu laws, but they do have a history of supporting, even terrorist groups and criminal activity on the platform and they've shut some of that down, and as i mentioned, law enforcement officials not just in france have been looking into this, and it also because of the way that it's structured and the secret chats and the end to enden krimgsz in some cases and that's why it's so useful in these zones and the founder, it's really interesting he keeps a relatively low profile and he does posts on telegram, but the company is really just him. even if you do a linkedin search, you can't find employees. he told tucker carlson that there are only 30 employees and

he's worth billions and billions of dollars and that's the question, too, what is he doing with this? >> is he russian born, deirdre? >> russian born. >> the company is headquartered in dubai, and i believe he has french citizenship and a number of dint citizenships. it's really sort of this web and that is what is fascinating tech circles right now, too. sort of the mystery and the intrigue behind him and the place that telegram really plays within social media and elon musk and his supporters brought up and what does it mean for freedom of speech and how responsible should social media be and what happens to them. >> keep us posted and deirdre bosa is following the story and bringing it to us on tech check. homebuilders hitting record highs, and after the break we'll look at vice president harris' $200 billion housing plan and why there might be a path forward if she wins the

elecon esdeilarnext. nice to meet ya. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years. when i have customers come in and ask for something for memory, i recommend prevagen. number one, because it's effective. does not require a prescription. and i've been taking it quite a while myself and i know it works. and i love it when the customers come back in and tell me, "david, that really works so good for me." makes my day. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. it's time to grow your business. time to get customers. time to make your future, now. create a website in minutes. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing? nope. ai, done, built, up and running. you have what it takes. now take it to the next level.

create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. let's get to work start for free at godaddy.com >> at university of maryland global campus, getting a bachelor's degree doesn't have to mean starting from scratch. here you can earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience. what will your next success be?

welcome back. vice president kamala harris laid out her economic plan including a three-pronged approach to housing supplies and using tax credits and incentives. while it threads the needle on the political aisle it comes with a hefty price tag. here to talk about how it is implemented jared sieberg at t.d. cowan and i wanted to cut through the campaigning rhetoric, and especially because you think this might make it to actual policy if she wins. >> yeah. that's what's so extraordinary here is normally we hear talk, talk, talk from people running for office and there's never a path for it to become law. this time there really is a path forward and that's the 4.5 trillion tax bill that congress has to deal with next year because the trump individual tack cuts are expiring.

that's a real path forward. >> okay. so what would that -- what would the -- as the rubber hits the road, what does it look like spinning the clock forward in 12 months' time hypothetically speaking. >> she's focused on really using tax credits as a way to encourage the construction of the housing that we need and the housing that we need is basically lower cost, both rental and single-family housing and she would do that two ways. one, expand the already popular low-income housing tax credit and second, create what effectively is a workforce housing tax credit that would work the same way to encourage affordable, single-family construction and the idea is you reduce the cost for developers and they can sell those properties for less. >> the way traders and investors have been talking about this, do

we need supply incentives and if we're supply constrain, it will go up. prices could go down. what's the mix here? >> build, baby build. we have a 7.5 million units housing supply shortage. the simple fact is that it's not cost effective to build entry-level housing and without some sort of government action that gap is just going to get bigger. >> so this government action would create more affordable and not just more housing units and why so? >> because that's the condition for getting the tax credit is that you're going to have to sell the units or rent the units based on local and median home prices, local median incomes. it's designed to focus on the

low end of the market and not build more larger homes that the private sector handles pretty well already. >> so last question on this. there's been talk about how there's no way that the senate could flip democratic, for instance and she could have a full support of congress to enact these policies, could this get through a divided congress. what would happen if trump is elected and for more whether i should own the homebuilders, this points in a different direction than perhaps one under president trump or maybe one doesn't if the likelihood of getting one done is so slim. >> well, here's the thing. at the end of the day we have a shortage. both parties an incentive to find a way to fill that shortage. we've heard ideas out of republicans, even j.d. vance has an idea that harris has backed and the foreseen large owners of

single-family rentals to sell those properties. so there's bypartisan interest in acting, so i think one way or another the homebuilders will be a lot busier over the next few years. >> do you think some of them have xhunder pressure and they' just renting them out to people and driving up rents and home prices and sometimes they cite like among builders for having a role in all out of this. are these people a friend or foe out a potential harris administration. i think they'll be foe in a trauchl, bolt are advisers and see that as a way to quickly move properties into the single-family ownership category and maybe help people buy homes.

>> jaret, thank you. appreciate it today. try to spin the clock forward and explain how it can work out in real life from t.d. cowan. >> check out shares of peloton to extend the run kickoff by the stronger than expected results last thursday. the shares are up 54% in the past week and still under $5 and 34% below the high reached back in january and we'll check out the other big movers next. stay with us on "the exchange. . . call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or keep part of it with no future payments. who knew? we sold our

policy. now we can relax and enjoy our retirement as we had planned. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "the exchange." we have a big headline on the dow, but it will be a different story. it hit a new intraday all-time high and a record high and we've now turned negative and we are down about 19 points and the s&p and the nasdaq had been heavier to the downside and the nasdaq's down 1% and a little bit more than that and the big tech is soggy ahead of nvidia's results after the bell. keep an eye on this as the russell 2000s are positive and the 10-year yield and this has

been supportive to more equal weight and small-cap sectors and all of this in the wake of powell's comments, as well. >> elsewhere, pdd, the parent company of temu is having itsppe apparently of temu, shares down 28%. one executive says revenue growth will continue to face pressure. temu is also being targeted by the lawsuit from sheehan in new york -- or a new lawsuit over copyright issues. add it all up, it's a nasty reset here, the shares down a bit. one more time, our mystery chart of the day, the share of up 2%, and it's said there's more room to run, even if we get a spending slowdown. we'll reveal it and talk to the analyst, next.

peloton growing sales for the first time in nine quarters, but it's not the only fitness stocks. planet fitness with a fresh new

high, thanks in pardon to barrett naming it a fresh, bullish pick. joining us now the analyst behind that note, jonathan, thanks for your time. >> thanks for having me, kelly. glad to be here. we showed a 20-year chart. it always feels trendy to me, but it tends to go in volatile waves, is that correct or no? >> i would say fitness is always fickle. trends tend to come and go. what is lasting, they are by far the largest player in the gym industry, counting almost 20 million members at more than 2500 location. even though trends come and go, planet tends to be a pretty strong mainstay in the industry. >> okay. so why now? is it just a six-month trend or

manage more lasting going on this. >> we think planet is an excellent long-term growth story. we signal also higher short-term conviction. this story has been in transition over the better part of the last year. we think the brand has made changes that are necessary to address new economic challenges. as a result, we see faster growth ahead in 2025. in addition to that, the consumer value proposition, and the high-volume nature we think does well for a slowing growth and declining interest rate environment. >> to highlight the fact, you know, lower rates sounds great, slowing growth, not so much. what do you think is going on? >> we certainly see signs of slowing consumer spending, slowing momentum in the -- we do like the fitness industry, as

consumers continue to adopt healthy routines, especially the youngest demographics. there's strong long-term tailwinds, by far, it's the leader of value in the industry. they've only raised prices once, just recently on the classic card membership, and as a result, we think the value proposition is still strong. >> is it still $10 a monday? >> it's $15 a month now. our early feedback through august is that change has gone through well, and we think that is the result of, you know, very strong pricing proposition already. when you look at the pricing decision, planet has kept the $10 all the way back to the early 200s, and before that. we think that's contributed to a strong value proposition, giving them the opportunity now to take some selective pricing and still

offer very strong value to the consumer. >> they should you say we're whatever netflix costs, basically. i wasn't sure if they were like a costco hod dog that never goes up. >> gen z population is 25% of their-mile-per-hour base. that over indexes, it's growing the fastest. what you see there is stronger demand for strength over cardio, so they have a big box format where they can shift and effective think they are were they're staying fresh for today's consumer, especially as they see the age shift. >> that was my husband's complaint, he couldn't find a squat rack. but that's us. jonathan, thank for your time. how many upside to the shares? >> we have a $92 price target. we outlined a bull case above

100 over the next 10 to 12 months. this is a stock that tends to outperform when interest rates are coming down, so we really like that opportunity here. jonathan, thank you. that's it for "the exchange." tyler is getting ready for "power lunch," working on his dead lifts. i'll join him on the other side of the break. the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all these plans include a healthy options allowance. a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items like vitamins, pain relievers, first-aid supplies and more. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't spend, carries over from each month. other benefits on these plans include free rides to and from your medical appointments. you pay nothing for covered

prescriptions, all year long. all plans have dental coverage which includes 2 free cleanings a year, fillings, and a yearly exam. they also have vision coverage including vision exams and a yearly allowance towards eyewear such as lenses or contacts. and hearing coverage, which includes routine hearing tests and coverage for hearing aids. you'll also have a $0 copay for the shingles and other routine vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. plus, your doctor, hospital and pharmacy may already be part of our large humana networks. so, call the number on your screen now to speak with a licensed humana sales agent. wouldn't you love benefits like a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent and over-the-counter items? so, if you have medicare and medicaid, call the number on your screen now and speak with a licensed humana sales agent. if you're eligible, they can even help enroll you over the phone in a humana medicare advantage

dual-eligible special needs plan. so, call now. humana. a more human way to healthcare. switch to shopify so you can build it better, scale it faster and sell more. much more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify.