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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  August 26, 2024 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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welcome to "power lunch." alongside kellie evans, i'm tyler mathisen. the dow hit a new record high, they're off the high, but it briefly got to 41,420. that's the first record for the dow since july 17th. the s&p 500 also close to re-claiming records. the nasdaq has a ways to go. check out the sectors today, seven of the 11 hitting 52-week highs, five of them all-time highs. what does that tell us about what the market thinking about jay powell's ability to engineer a soft landing? let's ask michael santoli from the new york stock exchange. what do you make of it? >> the market is embracing that jay powell has a soft landing as an explicit goal. a year or two, he wouldn't even
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concede that that essential he was after it. now he says he doesn't want to see any more weakening of the lake market. the market is rebuilding that faith, but that doesn't always mean that it's perfect for all stocks or all indexes. i've been pointing out july 16th made it's all-time high, it was a moment of maximum, and in fact excess certainty. the fed was going to cut soon for the right reasons at the right pace. i think you're getting back to that moment, and it's creating a broadening rally, but as you point out, a little more defensive, a little more lock it in, andmape more slippery when it comes to the index action. that's not necessarily a bad thing. usually there's positive forward-looking implications, but with seasonality being dicey starting in a couple weeks, that's why you see some
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back-and-forth action in the market. >> why isn't technology contributing today? >> i think, tyler, technology was hogging the oxygen in the first half of the year, in part because earnings growth was scarce, so everybody crowded in and gave a premium to the growth scarcity. now the majority of stocks are going to click towards earning growth. if we do have greater confident, that we're going to sidestep a real downturn in the economy, i think that net benefits other stocks, and technology, you know, essentially is source of funds in the old wall street term. >> sort of funds, you sell the technology to re-deploy elsewhere. >> yeah. >> stay there, mike, as we continue our conversation with our next guest, who says economic data continued to support 2% growth. kind of what mike was saying.
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let's bring in stephanie link, our cnbc contributor. welcome. >> his, tyler. >> great to see you. let's talk about -- which is more important we're going to be in a rate cutting cycle? >> yeah, i think it's the latter. i think it's we don't know what they're going to do. they're going to be data depe dependent. as you mentioned, that's a good thing no earnings. we are just came off an earning season that grew over 10%. and to your earlier conversation with michael, it is a broadening out, becauser seeing these other sectors, other stocks that are also now showing very good earnings. and good guidance. that is important. getting back to the fed and what they do. we know the market is pricing in
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100 basis points of cuts between now and the end of the year. i'm not so sure we're going to see it, that being said, he was pretty dovish on friday, much more so than i thought. that's obviously why we rallied. whether it's 25 or 50, they're coming, that's good for risk-on assets, but we're all data dependent. >> how about you, mike? do you subscribe to stephanie's point, which is that it isn't so much the amplitude or magnitude of the rate cuts, as it is the idea we're in a rate cutting cycleand that's good for risk assets. >> yeah. i think the idea we're in the mode of cutting rates, and say two percentage points of cuts that could be done before you get me conversion of the neutral rate, all of that makes sense as a psychological backstop for the market, and at some level
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energizer as well. the more bullish case is they go slower. you want them to be deliberate about this. that usually means the -- starting last december, good economic sinus mostly ball -- i don't think we're as investors rooting for weaker economic news from here on out, because it would mean deeper and sooner cuts, so stocks and bonds are rallying together, in part, because of that dynamic at this point. >> i know you're looking at names like truist and home depot, white nvidia records on went night. what are you thinking as we head into that. >> gosh, i can't wait for it to be over. [ laughter ] >> i think it will be good, but the stock just rallied in a good way, and expectations are so high. everybody likes it, everybody owns it. we knowed powerful ai trend, we
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know the hyper scalers and how much they will spend this year up 41% to $244 billion, another 266 billion is planned for next year, another 17%, the trend is there for sure, but we've had a nice rally off the lows, and of course we know it's not just nvidia, but the smh, but it is important to remember that an nvidia is 7% of the s&p 500, and 22 p 22% of the smh. broadcom is great. it's more diverse, it is cheaper, it is data center, cloud, ai of course, but it's also vmware, software, that's more recurring revenue for the company. that's why i like the story. when they made that acquisition, i doubled down on the position
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at the time. it too has had a nice run. if nvidia sells off, broadcom will buy out, that's your buying opportunity. >> is this the tell like apple was, or maybe still is, especially around earnings this week, is it overstated? >> i don't know that it's overstated. it really is a risk appetite trigger. so i'm in the camp, and always have been that apple is not a bellwether, it's -- sometimes it goes 18 months while not doing anything while the market is doing fine, and vice versa, it goes on these streaks, but it means massive amount of retail partic participation. to me, the question looking out a bit farther, is capitalism going to allow margins to stay anywhere where they are for nvidia on tens and tens of
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billions of incremental cap ex. that's not the way it's supposed to work. we'll see if that plays out, though. >> thanks both to stephanie and michael. stephanie, sit tight. we're going to talk about nvidia in a couple moments and come back to you. let's check on the bond market. yields are dipping slightly lower. rick santelli is in chicago for us. when we get down to 370s, and start thinking 360s, 350s, we're not quite there yet, though? >> no, we're not quite there. i still question how much longer -- how much lower they can go and stick really is the question. let's start with the economic side of the equation. at 8:30 eastern, we were all rather shocked at the strength of durable goods. the juiciest number, just a whisk are shy of 10% in over
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four years, but the story doesn't end there. when you look at ex-aircraft, it all disappeared. why? well, aircraft were up nearly 13% and not just any aircraft, but defense aircraft. this was a washout, and if we look at the respond, we sew up yields, down yields, which explains as many traders dug into the information, orders and shipments, and then when you look at several months, we're not stacking up a lot of good capital spending information there. finally, if you look at the way the stocks opened, especially the dow, that explains some of that volatility, but boy, has it settled down and gone sideways. the dollar index looks like a staircase right down to the basement, and we're getting ever
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close to 100. believe me, you want to monitor the psychological effects of that transition. >> thank you, rick. look at oil, up 3 her. israel and hezbollah engaging in a series of strikes. pippa stevens is here to help us understand, pippa, if things keep getting more significants. >> the first is over the weekend we saw israel launch a massive wave of attacks on lebanon. so far even we've been waiting for the iranian response o it was said this weekend attack is the iranian response is probably now more imminent. we have seen some of in a geopolitical risk come out of that trade the bigger driver is
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libya. they have halted exports amid a western government row, and the argument is over who will run the central bank. they produce about 1.3 million barrels per se and export the majority of that over to europe this could be imminent and have an impact. they're trying to get more out of the western government, but 1.2 million barrels a day, is over 1% of global demand. >> pippa, thank you very much. coming up, the nvidia effect
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it's happening. switch to reliable comcast business internet with security and get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! welcome back. nvidia remains the best performer in the s&p this year, up 156%. over the past five years, it's up 3,000%. if you go back further, a relatively modest amount invested would now by worth millions. in fact that's what's happened to some lucky investors. here's the story of one such person. >> september 16th, 2011, i invested nvidia at 37 cents.
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i put in $10,000. probably right now 3.5 million? i came to the usa because i got married, i always had a dream to come over here. >> just my mom was born in a village in india. she studied engineering. at the time she was one of only two women in her class. a lot of specifically indians women first generation immigrated here, would have to do the household ability. they were brilliant and very educated, but she gave up everything to the family. >> she dedicated so much of her life to us. when my kids were in high school, tipped, look, i have a lot of time. i want to utilize my time wisely. >> she always had cnbc on the tv, always had her laptops open.
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>> i heard jensen huang interview with jim cramer. he was an amazing ceo, and i said i'm never going to sell the stock. i'm going to keep it for my grandchildren. we thought she was in over her head. >> i don't want her to lose it on some trade. >> women started to notice. they started to ask her, what are you spending 9:00 to 4:00 doing, why can't you make it to lunch anymore? she said, i'm trading. instead of gossiping, it's an amazing story of financial freedom and control for this generation of women that had to sacrifice a lot when they moved to this country. >> i remember her always talking about nvidia, nvidia being her darling stock, and she says, i
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really believe in it long term. i think i invest theed first time in 2017. the returns, i think it's that initial 2017 purchase is about 4,780%. >> here we have an example of someone actually building out the american dream. they educated themselves, they used resources available to them and made life-changing money. >> in the end it's your gut, and i think she has a great gut instinct. >> she's the wiz, and we're kind of just trusting the process. amazing. mina, we want you to come on and talk to us. we have so many questions. let's talk to stephanie about this, who is still with us, whether the nvidia effect is good for markets. people seeing her making
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millions, the stocks that a lot of retail investor had that she has. i would love to know why she didn't sell along the way, like i said, we should have her on. what are your thoughts, stephanie. >> oh, my gosh, i'm in the business 33 years, and i haven't had something like this happen to me. she's an absolute rock star. she clearly does her homework and spend time and attention and detail. lot a lot of people have have had that. it's also a cybersecurity -- those are two places where ctos are spending double the money on t congratulations to mina. i would simply say, good for her, but i think the more prudent thing to do -- it depends on your risk profile, but to diversify.
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it's proven to work. we have less ups and down. i think dollar/cost averaging is really important. most people buy high and sell low. dollar cost average smooths it out, and then finally compounding does work. so good for her. awesome. why listen to me? have her on the show, for sure, but she certainly had some luck along the way. >> we do not know, or wasn't in that piece, what percentage of her total portfolio was represented by nvidia, one las to imagine it was a lot, just based on when she got in and what the stock has done since then. >> it would be funny if it weren't. >> then it would be readily great to have her on the show.
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if a stock that has loved you for a long time, you want to hold on to it, because it's treated you well, but at some point, we know the smart thing to do is to gradually reduce that size of your position. at what point does that thinking kick in? >> it depends on your risk profile, how much you're up or not, but i mean -- it's hard to long in a profit. my good friend jim cramer said never apologize for it. whether you sell a stock and it made money, which happened to me many times in my career, but i used that extra money to re-deploy elsewhere, where i thought make were some hidden gems, so it takes a lot of discipline not to sell, though. it really does. >> let me personalize it a bit. i recognize you're running money
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for other people you have a fiduciary responsibility to those clients at what point do you get to the point where, okay, this position has gotten too big? 5%? 15%? what is it? >> 5% is usually my threshold, but i have had something like appear 8 at 9%, but it never will stay that way. 5% is what i can handle, because i only have a 30-stock portfolio, so it's very concentrated. >> stephanie, thank you for sticking around for that. >> thank you. that would be fun. that's a fascinating story. today marks the 85th anniversary of the classic film "wizard of oz," but the message of the movie can help you have wefting. when to use your haeart, your
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>> dow is slightly higher now, record highs earlier in the day. nasdaq is moving the other direction, down about 1% at 17,714. let's get to our market navigator, dominic chu. tyler, there's being changes that may come to leadership for the big pharma sector. we've been talking so much about eli lilly, the clear leader, right? the healthcare index within the s&p is up 14% so far, so very respectable. let's bring in katie stockton, tech technician, and she has interesting thoughts whether we think names like eli lilly and novo nordisk, the ones that are anti-obesity, are the ones that will still be leading 6 to 12 months from now. katie? >> i think, dom, a shift in leadership is likely here. i say that in part for top-down
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reasons. when we sue market conditions develop, the winners, the leaders tend to be penalized in that environment. we are seeing for a seesaw corrections for the major indices. that would likely hit the likes of lilly and novo, harder than the laggards in that space. we've noticed some real recovery rallies to suggest they're on the verge of turning the corner. it comes at the same time we've seen very subtle loss of long-term up side. >> so you're not so much down on eli lilly, if i'm understanding you correctly, as saying eli lilly may get caught more than others in a market downdraft, that is a. b, is that others in the space may start playing some catch
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up-to-the likes of lilly? >> i think that's fair to say. if you look at the ratio of eli lilly to pfizer, for one, it looks overstretched. it's been skyrocketing over the past couple years, there are some indications that that ratio is a little too steep and not sustainable, when you look at the metrics that are down particularly for the four months or so. we see a lot relatively for lilly, and it would be only natural after the performance it's seen. we also have the cases from the laggards that they seem to be turning the corner. pfizer has an oversold up turn and improved momentum to the degree it's impacting or monthly indicators, so we think that's a meaningful long-term shift. and we like some of or portfolio
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look like that, the turnaround phase, but further within the pharmaceutical space, you'll see somewhat similar set judgments, they were both in cyclical down trends, and those down trends have lost some steam. we have seen oversold reactions from the two stocks as well, and this consumes improved sort of a loss of long-term downside momentum we think is promising. >> katie, thanks so much. we appreciate your time today. thank you for navigating us through the market. >> it's interesting. if you look at the way she weighs things out, it sets it up for those so-called pair trades. it takes a lot of guts to short a name like eli lilly or novo nordisk, but if you're looking to find a way to play that
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catch-up trade, some traders may look at shorting a name like lilly to turn around and buy a name. >> buy a pfizer or bristol-myers. dom, good to see you, man. >> good to see you. coming up, it is that time of year again, our powerhouse road trip. the environment has changed a lot for real estate. we're going to check the pulse t housing market across the country when "power lunch" returns, and we'll take you to one hot city. i'm talking temperatures. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. ♪♪ go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms ♪♪ unlock support from the schwab trade desk— our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. ♪♪ and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. ♪♪
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according to zale low, it's number eight in size, but homes are spending 41 days on the market, and this upward trend continues in parts of florida. for more on what's going on. stephanie magolin, welcome. we don't want to sound too doom and gloom, is the market slow? >> it's not slow at all. we have seen a bit of slower months compared to previous years and months. sales are still happening, exchanges are still happening. may that's a perception because you see price reductions, but the final prices are higher compared to last year. >> i think of the miami area, and i think it is as much as any
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marketplace in the country, two times of houses, one are condos, and on the other hand you have single family homes for sale and there are many, many fewer of those being built. so walk us through these two different markets, and tell us what's affecting them. >> you know, absolutely. i think that's important to notice when it comes to miami real estate. these two markets tend to defer quite a bit. let's talk about the condo market. the main concern is there's a lot of properties being built. yes, there is a high -- increase in inventory compared to last year. prices are being reduced every month. however, like i mentioned, that final sales price is higher than last year.
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there are some concerns when it comes to the condo market. we do have a bit of an issue with hoa, why? it's broadband affected by the recertification laws here in florida, and also insurance. there's a big thing with insurance. with that also comes sellers more flexible to negotiate and probably open to pay the assessments before closing. >> so let me make sure i'm understanding correctly. for the condos, you're finding that there are price reductions, butted final sales prices are higher than they were last year. >> correct, they are still higher. now by much, but yes, still higher. >> take us through the single-family home market. >> it's different. it depends on the neighborhood for both condo and single family property. the inventory is up slightly.
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prices are still much higher than condo, compared to last year on the leasing and final sales price. there's not much room for negotiation or flexible when it comes to buyers negotiating, so it's a different story. >> then for condo? >> for conno, like buyers do have mosh mower of negotiating with the sellers, but also i will not say expect huge reductions when it comes to offers. yes, you have room to negotiation, but the market is not crashing at all. >> what i'm hear you say, is properties are generally not selling above the listing price or asking price. let's look at a house -- i don't know if you recently sold it, three bets, two baths, 1600 square feet. >> this is a beautiful property that has beautifully resold. this is in a neighborhood in my
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opinion very, very good to invest in. the property is located in this neighborhood around some of the great properties. this is an up-and-coming neighborhood. it's been beautifully restored. sold all cash from a foreigners. those are the type of buyers that we still have here, even though he kept the historics of the property, they added modern touches, new roof, new doors, so you have the historic part of it with a modern aspect. >> it's lovely, but it sounds in general the costs are adding up. you think that's part of what's going on here? >> i mean insurance has been an issue all throughout florida. you know, we have that, and it's a concern for several buyers, especially if you buy a home in a flood zone or things like
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that. it depends on the zip code, but it's not a limitation for people to move here or relocate. i not something that we have seen. people still move here. >> it's been great to get a sense of what's going on in the market. thank you for joining us today. >> thank you so much. i appreciate it. >> stefania mogollon, with ancona real estate. the captain of the super-yacht that save off sicily last week, killing seven people, is now under investigation for manslaughter. that's according to captain james cuthill's lawyer, who says that he is being investigated, and will speak with prosecutors on tuesday. an investigation in italy does not imply that charges are to be filed, but is required before authorities can conduct autopsies.
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an immigration program -- 16 gop-led states filed suit on friday to end the program in federal court. walmart is recalling 10,000 cases of apple juice sold nationwide that could have harmful levels of arsenic. it applies to the great value brand. tyler, back over to you. thank you very much. as the climate heats up, it is getting harder to conserve water to help power some of the world's biggest industries. we'll highlight some startups looking to change that when we return.
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sgluf today starts the world water week. the global heavy industry uses up to half of it. now the race is on to find more efficient way to say recycle water in the face of increasing drought. diana olick has the details on her ongoing series. >> yeah, some of the world's most essential industries all uses huge amounts of waters. that's why there's efforts to find a way to recycle as inexpensively as possible. >> the water treatment industry is expected to reach half a trillion, much of it involves harsh chemicals and using -- but some companies are trying to reduce both costs and energy and
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eliminate the chemicals. we stay highly contaminated wastewater, and we eliminate the -- >> gradients technology mimics how nature creates wayne. rain. they're heated into vapor, leaving the contaminants behind. it's transferred to a dehumidifier, where it mixes with cool, clean water. when the two mix, the air cools and drops fresh water like a cloud dropping rain. the process cuts traditional costs in half. >> other technologies can recover -- but we can 99% water. they work with companies like coca-cola, bmw, pfizer and more.
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its growth trajectory is very attractive to investors. >> scaling these technologies is difficult. it's easy to find a product, but much more difficult to find a full end-to-end solution. that's what gradient has done. >> in addition to general innovation, it's backed by warburg pincus, m & g. formation, and clear deppvision, total funding over $228 million. part of why this industry is growing so fast, as the climate heats, there's more water, and there's less water where this used to be more, so accessing water is becoming increasingly challenging, forcing them to being innovative.
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welcome back. it's time for a special edition of three stock lunch. it's the anniversary of wizard of oz. so we're commemorating some of the iconic characters. do you want to pick a character for this? there's the who's available? >> the tin man? as long as i'm not the little witch. she was a bad character. >> maybe you're dorothy. we asked you to choose a stock you'd buy with your brain. this one you went with phillip morris, whose shares are up 30%. this is not the hard stock. what are your thoughts here? >> i think it's a solid company in an industry most people don't like. they have done a great job of pivoting away from the traditional tobacco with the smokeless tobacco and then the nicotine gum, that unfortunately
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a the lo of kids like. it's a good business. taking away the emotions, if you look at the fundamentals, they are doing well and probably going to continue. >> let's look for a stock you can buy with your heart. you went with planet fitness. stock up more than 30% over the past three months. why do you love this one? >> i did this one for your heart. you need to be alive longer. obviously, we have an obesity endemic in the united states. we owned it before. obviously, covid was a reason to stop owning it. they have gotten their mind right about some of the social issues they have going on. stock has done well. they have 18 million members. that means there's about 300 million that aren't. they just raised the price. we think it continues to go higher as people need to continue to stay healthy. >> makes sense. we heard an analyst update on it last hour. and final ily a stock to take courage to own.
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you have chosen crowdstrike. which is up 80% over the past year, but down 30% since the beginning of july. as we wonderer about more fallout from their massive outage. why this one? >> you hit it right on the head. potential lawsuits, we have to remember that the fallout wasn't because the product was bad. the update was bad. so the business is fundamentally strong. stephanie said it in the last segment as well. chief technology officers are spending money on ai and cybersecurity. crowdstrike has best in breed products. they are having a little bit of a hiccup here. sales maybe down a touch, but long-term, it's a great story. cybersecurity is not going away. >> all right, michael, thank you very much. he's the cio there. the actors who played the scare crow, the tinman and the lion,
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one was bert larceny and i'm drawing a blank on the third. >> if i know our audience, we're going to get the calls. >> i'm sorry i don't know the third. i should. still ahead, becoming a bitcoin believer. we have new details on how former president trump went from crypto skeptic to a proponent seemingly overnight. we'll explore that na moment. (husband) we just want to have enough money for retirement. (wife) and travel to visit our grandchildren. (fisher investments) i understand. that's why at fisher investments we start by getting to know each other. so i can learn about your family, lifestyle, goals and needs, allowing us to tailor your portfolio. (wife) what about commission-based products? (fisher investments) we don't sell those. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in your best interest. (husband) so how do your management fees work? (fisher investments) we have a transparent fee, structured so we do better when you do better. at fisher investments, we're clearly different.
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welcome back. a few years ago, former president trump called bitcoin a scam. but just last month, he spoke at the year's biggest bitcoin conference and praised bitcoin comparing it to the steel comindustry a century ago. a great story cnbc.com today.
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joining us is the reporter behind the story. >> for months now, i have been talking to the people who quietly been helping to orchestrate donald trump's total about face on krip to. it goes back to march. that's when three bitcoiners in puerto rico got in touch with the trump team and joined a chorus of voices, including his family and friends, that have been pushing pro crypto talking points. we're talking secret meetings at trump tower, plus a slew of sideline fundraising events. all n they promised him $100 million and 5 million votes. they raise d $25 million so far and an updated fundraising figure is coming my way soon. trump is leaning into pro bitcoin talk on the campaign trail. he's been learning as experts have explained that the industry is real and not overrun with criminal activities. there's also the matter of all that cash being raised and
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donated by crypto executives and businesses. almost half of all corporate money raised this cycle is from crypto. they are outspending big oil and the crypto cash is going in the primary races, wins have fo followed. 85% win ratio so far when pro crypto superpack money is involved. >> so these are pro crypto forces that are donating this money. they are not donating it in crypto. >> sol of them are actually. more than $4 million of crypto currencies going to the ca campaign. >> these would be companies and lobbying groups and professional organizations? >> it's especially the companies battling the s.e.c. rippal and coin base are two of the biggest backers of pro crypto superpacs. certainly fair shake is one of the biggest. >> last week at the democratic national convention, we heard from senior campaign aid.
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when he was specifically asked about the stance, the vp would embrace policies that support emerging technologies. their chief policy officer says they have been meeting with the harris team and very please d about those talks. >> fantastic. thank you. >> it's a great way of how you curry influence and power. >> thank you for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell" here at the new york stocks exchange. we begin with the dow's new record high as sectors outside of stock continue to rally. we'll ask our experts whether the broadening can continue as earnings loom large. take a look at the score card with 60 minutes to go. we have the best sector being energy. oil is up about 3%. there's the xle. financials among the groups performing better today. s&p under some pressure as most of the meg

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