when he was specifically asked about the stance, the vp would embrace policies that support emerging technologies. their chief policy officer says they have been meeting with the harris team and very please d about those talks. >> fantastic. thank you. >> it's a great way of how you curry influence and power. >> thank you for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell" here at the new york stocks exchange. we begin with the dow's new record high as sectors outside of stock continue to rally. we'll ask our experts whether the broadening can continue as earnings loom large. take a look at the score card with 60 minutes to go. we have the best sector being energy. oil is up about 3%. there's the xle. financials among the groups performing better today. s&p under some pressure as most of the mega cap tech names

remain many the red and that does include nvidia. apple sending out a new iphone invite. it does take us to our talk of the tape. the rate cuts are all but f confirmed, let's ask the managing partner with requisite capital. as you can see, it's nice to see you. so the fed chair delivered. now we have another big week. now we need nvidia to deliver, don't we? the market has been broadening? >> you still have the s&p up 18 while the equal weight is still barely up 101. you have a big delta it wasn't the stuff that's been broadening and the market cap wave. after all this hype and pomp. so i think that you have a

little bit of a selloff today, but i think nvidia's earnings on wednesday are going to be an incredibly important gauge of sentiment in the market around this trade in general. >> you had your chance at nvidia $20 ago. and it speaks to the way that a lot of these stocks have rallied back. now the pressure is really on. you have to live up to the bounceback that we have had. as we said, the dow hitting a new closing high. >> so nvidia is this unique, one of a kind animal. i don't think we have ever had a company of this size. two years ago they had full year fiscal revenues of $6 billion. as of last quarter, $26 billion. that's up almost seven times. so this earnings have backed up the stock market appreciation, but do i think they are going to go from $28 billion is where

they come in for a full year is going to go up another 5 or 6 times in revenue, no. so they had a step function up. the stock and earnings followed each other. but now you will see that growth coming down and leveling off. that's where i say i think this is a lot about sentiment and how people digest slowing growth. huge moving forward. >> you had a fraid yan slip. 600% in 2 weeks. >> it feels like that when the stock moves. people are not two weeks. two years. but your point is well made. it does feel like that. fed is out of the way. why do you make that face? do we have to worry about it anymore weren't how are you seeing this? >> i'm always iffy. economic expansions don't die of old age. they get murdered by the fed. so right now, we're in a soft

landing scenario, but what does concern me is if you look over the last year, 82% of all jobs growth was government and education and health care. that's not a healthy jobs market. the historically, those are smaller percentages. so i don't know what percent of the jobs growth going forward if we have blless government stimulus, which we all know we need to have to be a responsible country, what's going to happen to the economy? i think to me, one of the most important numbers will be september 6th when the unemploymentment comes out. unemployment comes out the friday after next. that, to me s a sign of do we continue to get a broadening or if jobs come out worse than expected, that's going to call into question the fed was late in cutting rates. >> are you worried they are going to be too late and they should have gone already and by the time they do it's going to be too late? >> i am not passionate about

that. i'm just looking at history. historically, the fed has been soda ta dependent. so outside of 95 and 1 point in the 60s, the fed has been too late. things worsen. that's not my base case. i'm not sure if the economy from an employment number is as robust as we think it is because of how much has been from government, education, and health care jobs. >> what do you like right now in the market? if i said you can't pick tech. you have to pick something else. what would it be? >> i'm going to go for a lot of factor-based investing. so i think sector investing can be too binary. i really like companies that have high free cash flow yields. not free cash flow. but take the denominator as the market cap. it's not a free cash flow yield. so you could have lanar. but so does diamondback.

so those companies typically are more value oriented, but what happens when the economy slows if you have a high free cash flow yield. you can do m & a, dividends, it gives companies more flexibility. that strategy of free cash flow is a really nice strategy to have in uncertain times. >> generally speaking, do you like the housing area of the market? energy is the the leadership today. >> energy, obviously today with the middle east, you're getting this oil bump. but i think these companies, you continue to see with marathon, diamondback, also dr horton. these companies have moved up a lot, but they have really strong balance sheets. i think if you get a rate cut, which we should have, and the economy does hold occupy, home builders can continue their chart. because they are still pretty

cheap. >> and mortgage rates coming down have stimulated the housing trade, which is waiting to. happen. let's bring in the miller family office. good to have you with us. your thoughts on the market here and now? we have we got through powell. now we have a lot more ahead. >> absolutely. the september rate cut is a done deal. however, markets are still trying to figure out are we going to get that 50 basis point cut to start. however, when the fed started hiking rates, we only got 25 to start. they are going to be measured and start with 25 basis points at the september rate cut. will it be enough for the markets to grind higher in september? typically it's down about 2% as a month. it's going to be a tough month in september. >> you see it the same way? >> i see right now we're in this soft landing sweet spot, so to

speak. obviously, powell has got a really tough job on his hands now that a lot of people think he's behind the curve. unemployment is trending higher, which is not good. inflation has come down. most of the fed speakers have said that as inflation comes down, the fed gets more tighter. we said that awhile ago, which is true. them doing nothing really kind of put pressure on other central banks around the world. that's why we saw the trade. it's really hard. we're in a soft landing sweet spot, but it's hard to stick the soft landing. >> because you think they are going to be too late by the time they start to cut. >> it's very hard to get it exactly right. there's so many different macrofactors. again, it's a super tanker. the cuts are going to be long and belagged too. you have some trading below 4%.

and so the fed has to cut 200 basis point ps. how quickly and will the data allow them to do that? and unemployment not spike, just think it's around 4%, but if it goes about 4.5%, then definitely 50, 75 is now on the table. >> does that make you more cautious because you're having uncertain feelings about whether powell and company are going to be able to pull it off? >> really. it's hard to make money in the market. it's really hard to do anything close to that if you're always worried about the market. we just want to know what's going on. we're not going to worry about what happens. tax policy after the election is the big caveat going forward. are they going to raise corporate tax rates or capital gains. are we going to go from we took everything back from on shoring and now if they raise the corporate tax rate, are people going to offshore again.

>> exactly. >> those policies being talked about too on one side versus the other side. things being talked about on both sides that could have impact on the markets. >> huge volatility. you can't go in and out of stocks like that. ai is a secular thing. it's going to be a runway. goog sl bullish. we have been very bullish. regardless of where earnings are, if you have the fastest, best and brightest working, you have to work on that fplatform. you have to work on nvidia. they are growing 50% year over year. so that's really the prime sweet spot right now. but then as the ai story evidolution news, we're going t have lots of other companies being pulled up with it. it's a mir call that's happening. it's another reason the market is doing as well as it's doing. they know that with ai,

productivity is going to increase. inflation is going to go down. it's going to give the fed the runway to cut. china's explosion really lately, that's another reason why you see commodity prices all over the globe pmi falling. so they are going to have that to contend with as well. >> do we have heightened volatility from now until the election. we have about 70 days. just fits and spurts of it. >> i don't think it will be even remotely what we saw with the carry trade. that was the second largest move in the past three or four sec dads. >> that was a moment in time. that will be remembered as one of those days that we say, that was crazy when the vick spikes to 65 and then back at 15. >> over the next month, if you read the technicians, you see

80% of stocks are above their moving average. so this could be a good week. september could be a little bounce around. but i don't think unless we have that event, volatility appears out of nowhere. especially going into an election. we have to remember we have this thing called congress. i think that's a balance to both candidates. who wins congress, to me, is so important in terms of being able to get either mandate that either party want wants. we're not run by dictators. we have that good system here in america. >> time to be cautious as a result of all of this or just be more bullish because we know cuts are coming? >> i think you have to be a little more balanced. we have talked a lot about technology and how that continues to be a secular theme. i think with the fed starting to cut rates, having economic

sensitivity, having that equal wait exposure to the index is something that would be positive for most portfolios going forward. >> as we talk about these mega cap stocks, you find out more and more why people keep investing in them, names like apple with a new announcement today. they send out invitations for a highly anticipated hardware event coming next month. we knew those invites are come ing. i guess we're glad they ended up in our inboxes. >> that's exactly right. it is a day earlier than we expected too. so usually they hold these events on tuesdays. and the slogan here is it's glowtime. which i assume is a reference to that new design that siri is going to get. here's what we're expecting. we got new iphones and the other stuff you carry around with you. ipods and the after the watch. this is the 10th anniversary of the apple watch revile and that u2 album they stuffed on our

phones. the most important product, not expecting significant hardware just dates. we'll look like the models from last year. and that's because this is all about artificial intelligence. to use the new features, you'll need a 15 pro or better, presumably the next line of phones. and most on the street think this is going to spur a huge upgrade cycle thanks to ai, but moft said it's largely already baked into the stock. this is going to be a really slow broil. it's going to be in u.s. at first. and the features are going to be rolling out over several months. you're not going to get everything at day one. chatgpt integration is going to come by the end of the year. and some more advance thes in siri are going to happen. it's still going to be a beta version. it's unclear when artificial intelligence on apple devices is going to launch in china, the

next most important market, due to regulation there is. tim cook told me a few weeks ago the company is working to get artificial intelligenced, but expect a slow rollout for now. >> patience are in order. thank you. how do you think about this? >> it's going to lead to a great upgrade cycle, but it's already in the stock. >> i really think this is incremental. i have the iphone 14. i already got the ios 18 beta on my phone. and i think this ai is a nebraulous concept. what i do think it does for apple is solidifies the billions of people that have an iphone are going to stay with iphone, continue to spend so while the revenue growth is inkpcremental

you can't look at it that much because the per share they keep taking out, but i think this is going to once again solidify that base. they have such durable revenues. people love the product. so i think it's just a great win for apple, but i do agree i don't think it's going to be some big move between now and year end because of this launch. >> look, from june, we're looking at the chart. you can see from wwdc, that was the huge launch. you still prefer amazon as your principle ai play? >> yes, still. it has so many different ways to make cash flow. i was told i will no long er be supported so i have to upgrade this cycle. pz you don't own apple?

>> it's just small compared to the others. >> what gets you to inkrcrease e size of your position? >> that's up to bill. right now, our big goal is bitcoin, amazon, microstrategy. we have some nvidia, google, meta. >> you're still hitching your wagon to bitcoin. >> we still have -- a 1% allocation to bitcoin. we think it's an insurance policy on catastrophe. if the world blows up, you'll have your bitcoin on your new iphone and be able to travel rather than not. >> why do you think it's traded so squirrely lately? >> one of the reasons why, we got a big bump up with all the etf. we got up to 75,000. then it died off a little bit.

and we got into this range of 50 to 70,000. it was bought pretty strongly there. i think going forward, if we take out that 70,000, that's going to be a fomo episode just like 6,000 is on the s&p. if we take out 75,000 on bitcoin, it's going to trade above 100,000 and probably rather quakely because it's a fixed supply. we're getting closer to the end of that cycle. we just had another having. there's going to be a lot of positive factors going forward, not to mention both candidates, i think that's because of all the campaign contributions that they are getting. that they both want crypto regulations and rules to be in place so the ecosystem can

evolve more and more as we go forward. >> has it decoupled its from the nasdaq? >> it's looked like maybe that was undoing itself. >> there are times when it's more decoupled than others, but the one thing we do see with bitcoin is the volatility has gotten a lot less. so a move when it was at 1,000 or 10,000, they were huge moves. even 20,000 or 30,000. we really haven't seen that since it shit 75,000. we have seen drawdowns, but those are really market related drawdowns rather than the previous bitcoin. >> you own crypto-related stock. are your views courrelated? >> i think first of all, it's still up 44% year to date. just take a little bit long-term year to date, it's been one of the top performing assets.

i think around the volatility, though, invest norths need to understand underneath the hood, this trade gets highly levered. so when the world ends or when the yen trade unwinds, what happens to bitcoin? all that leverage gets flushed out of the system. so i think that you need to watch the leverage underneath the hood of what's happening because that, to me, has higher court canlation of how much people are levering up their bitcoin on the nasdaq and inside the crypto currency sl. that still remains high. it's lower now because they got washed out. but if you size it right, it may do well. >> it's an insurance policy you don't want to have to use. >> but the world only ends once. we're going to leave it

there. thank you. let's send it to pippa stevens for the biggest names. >> another setback for boeing. nasa announced over the weekend that it will leave two astronauts at the international space station until february when they will return via a spacex spacecraft. the test light was originally supposed to last about nine days. and shares of icon enterprise is hitting. it will sell up to 400 million depository units through an at the market offering program. icon settled the charges with regulators paying $2 million in fines over the failure to disclose as much as $5 billion in personal margin loans those shares down 12%. >> thank you. we're just getting started here. up next, robert kaplan join us to give us his first reaction to the chairman's speech.

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because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. we are back with stocks holding on to most of their pop following the fed chair's speech in jackson hole. now the challenge will be-andbe navigating the size and pace of rate cuts in the months ahead. joining us is robert kaplan, the former dallas fed president. welcome back. it's nice to see you again. >> good to see you. >> our prior guests a few moments ago have doubts that powell can pull this off. do you share those doubts? >> no, i think they have a reasonably good chance to pull this off. meaning a soft landing. first of all, we're running 7% of gdp defincits fiscally.

in other words, an historically high deficit at a time of full employment. some of that is higher interest, but some is higher spend lg and that's giving resiliency to the economy. in powell's speech, he made clear they are going to move in september. he left options open as to how much. he made clear they are going to balance employment and inflation. they don't want to letthe job market get any worse. and i do think we're going to find out from the august jobs report there's a reasonable chance that that may be better than people think so i think we have a reasonable chance to navigate this. if the economy turns out to be weaker than i just said, the fed can do more. >> should they go 50 to be safe? >> a lot of it is going to depend on the august jobs report. i would withhold judgment in

that until we get to the first week of september. and again, if that job report is weak, they will go 50. if it's stronger than people are expecting, which is a possibility, then i think they will go 25. they will do that in order to move more deliberately and be able to control the pace. >> that speaks to one of the criticisms now. they are too data dependent at this point. they are already way to restrictive. so i why not act falster to brig the rate back down? >> the fact of the matter is if they are late, in my opinion, they are late by a meeting or two. but that's not even clear. and there are times when the structural drivers, i think, ought to take more precedence.

the amount of fiscal spending is one of those structural drivers. i think when you're tweaking, whether it's 25 or 50 and how fast you want to get the next 75 basis points of cuts, i think looking at data and how it evolves is not inappropriate. so i think they have the balance about right actually. >> but you still sound like your principle concern in all of this is the still rising defincit an the cost of funding it and the impact that that's going to have on interest rates in the future. >> yeah, i think i have a couple of concerns. one in the near term, i think the economy is weakening. anything interest rate sensitive is weaker. the jobs market is weakening. we needed that weakening to offset the fiscal spending. i think we made enough improvement to start cutting rates, but yes, secondly, i think the big issue over the horizon, the debates won't be

about monetary policy over the next year or two. they are more likely to be how do we deal with debt to gdp that's over 100% in an ageing economy. how do we delerge fiscal policy. the fed has a runway to get a couple hundred basis points of cuts. the bigger issue, we have a glaring issue on fiscal. i don't think it's being focused on right now. >> we know that some on the fed wanted to cut in july. if you were sitting in your office in dallas and you had to vote, would you have said i want to go in july for some of the reasons i'm concerned about? you said the economy is weak account. the job market is weak account. if you know that, why not cut in july to send a signal you're on the case?

>> you remember a couple months ago, the headline we were talking about is they were saying there would be no cut this is year. so in fairness to the fed, the narrative has gone from one extreme, which is the economy is too strong we don't need any cuts, to the fed can't cut fast enough, they are way behind. i have a fun feeling the narrative is going to get more balanced in between those two. the fed should be cutting. we need the cuts. the only question is the pace and, i think they will gauge it meeting to meeting. i think that's the right approach now. >> you think they have done well enough to erase the mistakes at the very beginning? or are thoez going to be forever

etched in the history of jay powell's fed? >> we have talked about this before. i think the fed was as much as 18 months late in recognizing not the covid supply issues, they recognize d that immediately. i think the access demand created by too much fiscal and too much monetary. and i think they were a year or 18 months late in recognizing that. to their credit, they acknowledged the mistake, did a 180, but any time you have to raise rates as quickly as i they just did, it tells you you were way off course. so i think both can be true. they made an error a few years ago, but thif dealt with the about face relatively well. i think both are true. >> we'll leave it there.

mr. kaplan, thank you, i appreciate your time today. >> good to talk to you, scott. >> that's robert kaplan. up next, the fed is playing with fire. he'll explain why, after the break. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley,

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we are back with the dow on track for another record close. the s&p 500 is lower today, but still around 1% from its own record.

here to share where we see stocks heading next is the president of the research. good to see you. welcome back. >> thank you very much. >> we have gotten through a lot, haven't we? the powell speech, and now nvidia is looming large. do we have enough left in the tank to get over that hurdle? >> i think so. i'm not quite sure what you're concerned about. the economy is doing fine. the next batch of economic i indicators will be stronger than expected because i think july's numbers were impacted by the weather. and if that's the case, then sol of this concern about the weakness of the economy will evaporate, as it has happened in the past since 2022. inflation is on course to be down to 2%. the feds indicated they are going to ease. i think they are too dovish now,

but i don't think that's going to be a big problem unless we get a melt up in the stock market. >> it's not like i'm concerned about anything. the market has been resilient. anybody would say that. and it deserves as much credit, but at some point, does that resiliency run its course? >> you said i'm concerned about the fed playing with fire. what i'm concerned about is that there's a lot of kindling wood out there. there's over $6 trillion in money market funds. around $2.5 trillion of those are in retail funds. if the fed starts lowering interest rates, or communicate ing they are going to be lowering them rather quickly, you're going to have a lot of that money in the stock market going into the economy. then the other thing with the fed to essentially commit to a lowering interest rates for the

future here, it's going to run smack dab into the next elections. and we may have a democratic sweep or a republican sweep. either one of those scenarios could very well be inflationary. so i think the fed should have just communicated september cut of 25 basis points and left it at that. >> i feel like that's what the market anticipate nous. it's more of what happens next. shouldn't that be our principle concern at this point? >> the speech went well beyond the 25 basis cut point in september. they said it's going to be an ongoing decline in interest rates because of the concern that the balance between inflation and risks has turned more to risks of high er

unemployment. i don't agree with that and i think it's a mistake, and it wasn't really necessary. i think the fed could have just csignalled 25 base bay sis poins for september. they signalled a lot more beyond that. >> but why should they just go 25 and then say we're done? they are restrictive relative to where the pce is now and where the real rate is? >> i disagree with that concept. i think there's a lot of people at the fed who believe as inflation comes down, the policy becomes more restrictive because the fed fund rate isn't lower, there's people that said every time they start to decline, it drops very sharply. the economy has proven itself to be rethe sill yent. we haven't had a credit crisis or a credit kprcrunch, and therefore, we haven't had a recession. it's capable of handling these levels of interest rates. so i think productivity is

making a comeback. i think the so-called neutral rate, i think it's a fantasy rate, but that's what fed officials watch. the so-called neutral rate is higher than most of them believe or expect. so i don't say they should do 25 and say they are done. i think they should say they are 25 and we'll see how it goes. >> but why should we have a credit crunch before they are forced to do more? we know the economy is weakening. we can kwifl about the degree. >> it's weakening too. i think the economy is strong. i think labor market is back to normal. it's not that it's cooled off. it's back to normal. and it's by evidenced by unemployment claims have come down a bit after they looked like they were going to go up, but a lot of that was weather related. the payroll numbers that we had at the beginning, that was weather related. and i think we're going to see

stronger numbers there. >> but if things are back to normal, the fed funds rate is not that's the whole point. if things are normalizing, but the fed funds rate is too reinstructive, why shouldn't we move it back towards normal? >> that's your interpretation. >> how is it my interpretation? they hiked for 18 straight months. >> where's it written they had from zero. i have been predicting it since the beginning of 2022. everybody else has been predicting recession. i said the fed has tightened from zero to 5.25%. so they have normality was 0. 5.25% the economy has dealt with extremely well. it's been at these levels in the past. the economy has grown. i disagree that the economy is

weakening that the labor market is weakening, that the funds rate is too restrictive. but i'll go along here. when i say it's irrelevant, the fed is say ing they are going t cut and that's what it's going to be. >> job growth is slowing. the unemployment rate is going up. >> it's not slowing. it's normalizing. we're back to 170,000. >> sure it's normalizing. the fed doesn't want to lose control. they have come this far. it's slowing relative that has certainly simmered down. we're back to where we were before the pandemic in terms of the monthly increase in payrolls. that was perfectly good time for the economy. >> that's towards zero.

>> absolutely. >> here we are back at 170,000 per month, as we were before the pandemic and interest rates were 5.25%. the abnormality was 0 interest rates. i'm not saying it's going to lower interest rates. i'm saying they got too dovish and are forecasting too much. >> the abnormality was getting to 5.25% as fast as they had to. they were forced to do that. that wasn't noermal either because of the level of inflation we had. >> it's got to cause a recession. we still don't have a recession. >> of course. >> you are correct. of course, most thought it was going to cause a much faster deterioration in the economy.

but the long and variable lags have proven to be much longer than people ever expected they would be, but that did you want mean you just declare victory and assume this is going to work out well that you don't need to do anything with interest rates. >> i'm not declaring victory. i'm saying what economists missed is the credit cycle. the credit crisis cycle. what happens when the fed tightens, you get a credit crisis, which turns into a credit crunch, which becomes a recession, which is when the fed lowers interest rates and that's when you get your inverted yield cu curve. what's different this time is, yes, monetary policy tightenened. yes, we had a credit crisis. but the fed came in and stabilized and we haven't had a cred crunch and i'm sticking with that story. >> we'll make that the last word. i look forward to talking to you soon. >> it was a pleasure.

>> thank you. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers. back to pippa for that. >> stocks are going in opposite directions. we have all the details, coming up next. ♪♪ data science can help address some of the biggest challenges in financial markets. if we focus on the mortgage market and follow the life of a loan from origination right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars. the property, the mortgage and mortgage performance. this trifecta of data and its history is a bit of a data scientist's holy grail.

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pippa is looking at the key

stocks we need to watch. >> solaredge is tumbling. their ceo is stepping down and will be replaced on an interim basis by the cfo. this comes as a solar industry struggles under higher rates. and shares of pet robras, the firm said total investor return could hit 60% through a combination of share price, appreciation, regular dividends and one-time dividend payouts. morgan stanley added strong cash generation differentiates from its peers those shares up 9%. >> thank you. still ahead, semis are sinking in today's session. we'll break down what is behind the big leg lower. micron, lam, among the biggest losers. we're back after this.

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all within spn of roughly six weeks. today no major catalyst. one portfolio manager said it was a breather ahead of nvidia earnings on wednesday. we saw micron get a price target cut from 150 to 140 a share. and analysts pointing to the recent comments suggesting shipments would be a bit weaker in the fall. inventory in general a key issue for the entire sector. some trepidation for dell's earnings and stied to ai server demands. they report earnings later this week. super microamong the hardest hit. you'll see down over 8%. >> it's losing over a quarter of its value. this is not a small company. well over 100 billion is dropping. this is a giant player. so hitting the stock, worries

over slowing growth and lower profitability. this is only the latest e-commerce hit by changing consumer behavior. also in pdd groups. it's also in investment mode. they are investing in trust and safety and mproving the merchan ecosystem and we are prepared to accept short-term sacrifices and potential decline. that's not something that investors love to hear. >> appreciate you. thank youing. we come back to you. less than a minute. probably going to get a new closing high for the dow. it looked dicey about ten seconds ago. >> it's nip and tuck. i think people can't come into the week saying the fed put it in place. it's had a little more of an attractive level. that's a psychological buffer that the fed is there. there's ongoing shift that's interesting. that testifily applies to the semis. we had a big momentum stock unwind. tech decline iing to non-tech.

i do think that leaves a lot to prove for that group. it's changing character of the market. maybe that's a positive thing. we'll see if it plays out. >> the new record for the dow, a new closing record high, that's the end of regulation. u.s. physical therapy rinsing the bell. it's a slide for the nasdaq. that's down in part by nvidia ahead of wednesday's result. that's the score card on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." coming up, the chief economic advise