>> okay, we'll be watching it with you, mike, thank you. just getting a final check on the markets and where we closed the day today. the dow finished higher at a new record close, and the s&p and the nasdaq finished lower as tech sold off. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. >> morgan, thank you. live from the nasdaq market, this is "fast money." and here's what's on tap tonight. challenges ahead for china, shares of pdd holdings were crushed as they miss expectations and give a gloomy outlook. so, how much will a slowing chinese consumer weigh on the markets here? we'll debate. plus, another black eye for boeing? nasa bringing back the starliner capsule from space without the astronauts it brought to the space station. we'll have the latest on this new headache for boeing's new ceo. and later, countdown to nvidia. tip stocks struggling ahead of

the make or break earnings report later this week. we'll poll the traders straight ahead. good evening, i'm tyler mathieson, in tonight for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, courtney garcia and her family -- >> come on! >> her family is here tonight. dan nathan -- family -- didn't even bring the dog. i like your dog, by the way. and guy adami, who brings me lovely coffee. >> you want -- i mean, it's a -- what is it, a hvanilla -- >> recommend that? >> tyler is drinking it, tim. are you going to be derogatory at the top of the show? >> the dow, a record close for the dow today. a record high, up 10% for the year. the milestone coming ahead of a full slate of retail earnings and of course nvidia. that's coming up. day doesn't go by without a big nvidia feature.

we begin tonight with another warning shot from china. pdd holdings, the parent company of the chinese e-commerce giant temu plunging 28% today. worst day ever. second quarter results fell short on revenue. company warning about continued pressure in its outlook. gloomy forecast, taking down a number of chinese e-commerce stocks, ali baba, jd.com. tim, is this a confirmation of what we already knew? >> i think we know that the chinese economy, but the chinese consumer is under a lot of pressure here. i think higher interest rates have had their impact in china. i look at the chinese internet names and i think one, you're not really buying them on their earnings dynamics, you're buying them as much on macro policy, and their ability to actually just do their job and be left alone by the government. so, i actually think this is a buying opportunity, at least for some of the others. and to me, that would be tencent, that would be alibaba.

the price action we've seen over the last, call it even six months, has been constructive in a very volatile trading range. pdd is a little different. this guide is worrisome. and i just think that ultimately, if you're trading chinese internet stocks based upon the macro, i think you are probably missing the story. >> if chinese consumers are slowing down, if chinese stocks are having some cracks, should american investors, who invest in american retail or american online e-commerce companies, should they be worried? >> yeah, to tim's point, i mean, like, a lot of incremental growth for u.s. multinationals has come from places like china. if you are investing in pdd or the other chinese names, you're really leaning into the chinese consumer. that's obviously pretty weak. i'd take it over to a tesla, apple, nike, you know, starbucks and these storlt sorts of thing. i think 50% of the cars that tesla build come out of the

shanghai factory. we know that demand is really weak for -- we know there's a lot of competition, but a lot of those cars go to europe, and the europeans have been talking about tariffs. so, that just amends to some of the problems that the u.s. multinationals have. all that being said, look at the way the dollar has come in really hard. that should be great for a lot of these u.s. multinationals. so, maybe that balances it out a little bit. >> court, thoughts? >> and the thing with pdd, they are trying to be that value to the consumer. the consumer is stretched. and they're going down, like you're seeing here in the u.s., more people are going to walmart. the fact they aren't able to get that on the value, i think, is concerning, and that's really what people are worried about right now. and amazon is trying to swoop in and try to provide really what they're not able to offer right now. so, there's definitely concerns. there's political concerns, because regardless of which candidate is coming in, there likely may be tariffs on china. but i do agree with you, tim, i think longer term, it's absolutely going to be a buying opportunity. these short-term uncertainties

just really lead to good prices. >> our guest, who is going to join us in a minute, is going to say the chinese are still spending, they are spending a little less robustly and maybe differently. >> rational is the term that i think -- >> rational? >> rational consumer. that's fine. i'll say this, though, it's a warning sign when a company of that size, $150 billion company, moves 30% in one day. i mean, that, to me, is really fascinating, and a built of an alarming move, as well. i'm not suggesting the broader market is going to do that, but when you see individual stocks move like that, it should try to telling you something, i think. if you are running away from alibaba on the back of this, i think that's a mistake. this was sort of pdd specific, understanding it at some reach, but alibaba has gotten from that $68 level, traded up to $90, pulled back a little bit. the quarter wasn't great, but it's hanging in there. >> i also think, ty, it's a combination of this stock married to the backdrop, but this stock has been unbelievable

growth story. it really has been. the year over year, they've got transaction growth north of 230%. this is a case, also. enormous expectations have been priced into this stock, where if you get back to an alibaba or tencent, those are value plays, and less about the chinese consumer than the catalyst around asset spin-offs and less pressure on them from the government. >> how worried -- this is a jump ball for anybody. how worried do you think chinese companies are about the possibility of trump returning to office and really raising tariffs on chinese companies? >> well, i think both parties seem pretty aggressive on that, if you listen to what they've been saying over the last few weeks or so. so, again, i think it's not just the u.s., it's canada is placing, you know, tariffs on evs coming from china, we just mentioned, you know, with europe, so, i think that is going to be a mainstay. and they're almost like stepping on the neck of china right now, their economy is so weak and it seems like this only has the

ability to make it that much weaker in the -- >> is it so weak? i mean, we would probably -- >> there's so much talk about china by 2050 -- they have a massive deck graph you can problem. they have 1.3 billion people and it's supposed to go south of 1 billion. so, they may not be the adversary from an economic standpoint we think. gen a.i., this is a more important war, and the stuff that goes on, the military stuff, but again, i think as far an t as the consumer is concerned, i'm not sure -- and the real estate market, too. >> let's bring in our guest, managing director and coo of china beige book. i have to ask you, what is china beige book? we're familiar with the u.s. fed's beige book. it's not the same. it's not -- >> it's not the same. we run large scale business surveys inside china. thousands are surveyed by us every month. 20,000 unique company as year,

which helps us get a sense of what is actually going on, on the ground, in the world's second-largest economy. >> what happened to pinduoduo and can we generalize, from its example, out more broadly to the chinese economy? is something, a tidal change afoot there? >> what's happening in china, everybody's having a tough time. this much is clear. the reason is that chinese consumers are not spending money across the board. now, they spent more last year than was ever acknowledged. this year, what we're seeing is they're spending on things like experiences. so, over the summer, they are spending on travel, they are spending on dining out. they're just not buying another chanel bag. and eve n cars. so, it's -- that dynamic that's at play. >> it's not that they're not spending, they're spending differently, what we talked about a little bit earlier. there's been a lot of thinking that at some point the chinese government swoops in to stimulate the economy and get it moving.

you see that happening? >> no. not in the way that i think the markets have been expecting. first of all, let's establish the fact that the communist party is not interested in blowout gdp numbers. they're interested in putting a floor under growth, which means that if they hit a 4.9% this year, they will be happy with it. which means they have no desire to do large-scale stimulus programs. they want to deleverage the system, especially property. they want to have something that's far more sustainable, if they can get to it. big question mark on that. and they want to get the country ready for the next trade war. >> and how might a trade war with the united states under a different administration, how might that injure the chinese economy and these companies that we're talking about? >> yeah, i think it's going to be a big challenge for them, especially because of what they've done in the manufacturing sector. w chinese overcapacity is a real problem. they are selling as much as they can now before tariffs take a

hit. in a way, that's to cushion the blow against what's coming next year or the year after. >> tim? >> governments should not be subsidizing bad businesses. in china, bad business has been building too much residential property. what about letting a lot of the businesses go bad? if you take down one or two bad banks, you backstop the depositors, you let the banks get crushed. do you see this happening? this would be an encouraging signal to the markets that the government isn't going to just stand in there and, you know, not let darwin kind of win out here. >> yeah, i think -- they have done that to a certain extent in the property sector, with a lot of developers for sure. and we see some of that take place in china. it's a recycling of the money, right? you let some of the asset management companies or banks fail, and a state bank takes over. the problem is, they start doing the same thing over again. the bad loans to zombie companies to keep them alive. the problem is really systemic in nature. and i'm not sure anything will move them away from that practice. >> doesn't sound like you see any real stimulus coming, then.

is there any sense that the market is wrong on this? that's really where i think the market finds chinese equities? >> yeah, no big fiscal stimulus is coming in. the housing rescue package is going to remain modest. and they've done a lot of monetary stimulus. it is just failing to move the needle. companies are not interesting in borrowing, no matter how low the interest rates keep coming. the credit transmission mechanism seems broken, too. >> does a weakened china make it more likely for them to do something with taiwan or less likely in your opinion? >> look, i think the taiwan, you know, goal, is something that xi is going to do at his own time and he's going to pick a time when he wants to go in. i don't know if the economy is going to impact it one way or another. they could have a weak economy, but a very strong military. they are trying to be as strong as they possibly can. >> court? >> when you see what's happening with the consumer there, it feels a lot like what was happening with the u.s. consumer

post-covid. they're getting back to spending, want to get their savings up, moving to experiences over goods. so, how much are they just behind the u.s., like,are we going to see that same trend in china that we are here and is that something we can extrapolate out in the future? >> a couple of things are going to make a big difference. number one is going to be housing. do we get a housing bottom? i'm optimistic that we get a housing bottom in 2024. the second thing, of course, which will -- unless it changes is stimulus. we got tons of money being thrown at households in the united states. nothing of the nature has taken place in china. nor do i think it will. so, i think the capacity to spend will always remain much more restained compared to american households. >> you say you wouldn't be surprised to see some short-term rally in chinese equities, but it would not really necessarily signal economic strength, it might signal merely that money needs a place to go. >> yeah, that's -- it's called a big money ball in china. it used to roll from propertymi

equities. so, it may be making its way over to equities sometime soon, and really, it's a function of having a closed capital account. people have to invest somewhere. >> thank you so much for being with us. appreciate your time today. let's talk this one through. is there a trade here that comes to mind, dan? >> i think you should worry about companies in the u.s. that depend on growth for china right now. you think about the nationalistic tendencies that we've seen by their citizens as they think about, you know, purchasing, you know, something domestically made, we're seeing that in evs right now. and this has been a problem for apple, i think, earlier this year, i thought, in the q-1, the calendar q-1, their sales were down mid teens sort of thing, percentage. and you think about the market share there, they've dropped to number six. they have -- >> number six among phone sellers in china? >> yeah. and you think about that, the expectations for the 16 line of phones coming out that's going to have this apple intelligence

on it, i don't think that's going to work the same way there behind their firewall that it does here. there's some estimates that there's maybe 200 to 300 million apple iphones in china right now. they don't have a reason to upgrade. they could really be, i think, a headwind to their growth. >> interesting. we're going to leave that one there and -- coming up, another black eye for boeing. the company leaving astronauts stranded now after ruling that its starliner spacecraft is unfit for re-entry with people aboard it. the fallout and what is next for a beaten down name, if ever there was one, boeing. we'll talk that. plus, a big shakeup at apple moving the stock afterhours. happened in the last hour. all that drama ahead of apple's biggest event of the year, coming up early next month. we will dig in, next. be right back. you're watching "fast money," here on cnbc.

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that's going to take place on september 9. steve kovach joins us now with the details. let's start with the cfo change, steve. >> yeah, this is important. this is luca maestri, he's stepping down on january 1st, 2025, from that cfo role and the new cfo taking over is kevan parekh, he's on the finance team under maestri. one of his top lieutenants, as well. he's going to be joining the executive team as of january 1st, reporting directly to ceo tim cook. maestri is going to stay at apple, though, he's going to lead a corporate services team that manages things like real estate for the company. that's going to also start in january. now, maestri's been a longtime apple executive. he became apple cfo in 2014, a year after he joined apple's finance team. since then, stock up just 786%. and as for the incoming cfo, he's been at apple 11 years, and before that, worked at companies like reuters and general motors. stock is not reacting too much.

but look, i think the real lesson, there was a succession plan in place for this role, apple went out of their way to say this was always the succession plan. we've seen a lot of muddled succession planning from corporate america recently, but this one seems to be smoother, tyler. >> he's a guy i think i've heard of luca maestri's name, but maybe not, and i'm wondering, there are some companies where cfos are absolutely critical to the operation of the company, and others where they are kind of in the back seat, or secondary. where would you -- how would you stylize or characterize apple in that regard? >> definitely the former. maestri's been a big presence on earnings calls. he takes up -- just about the same number of questions as ceo tim cook. he's one of the guys i meet with every quarter when apple does their report, right there along with mr. cook, as well. and, you know, he's behind a lot of the financial things such as those massive stock buy-backs,

including the biggest stock buy-back in history that was announced earlier this year. >> all right, thank you very much, steve. >> ty, you might have been thinking of luca brazi. >> he was an enforcer. >> swims with the fishes. >> sure. there's a lot there. guy's got -- >> it's upsetting to me when you bring that up. that was a tragic moment in a movie, as you know. okay, that's tim seymour, see? the phone -- >> that's artificial intelligence. >> i'm not sure, apple was involved. >> i tell tim to make sure his phones are silenced and he gets mad at me every time. >> my phone is on silent right now. >> she was just talking to you. >> that was siri. >> let's talk apple. >> all right. >> well -- >> you gave us your take on apple, or one element. >> you're coming back to me? one thing that kovach said that is interesting, they have nearly -- well, they bought back and -- in dividends nearly a

trillion dollars since they instituted it in 2012. i've listened to dozens and dozens of calls in this company. he is at the center of those calls. >> he is? >> important guy. but this is not important for this time. >> what is important, i think, will be valuation, when they report in october again. we got through the big day they had on june 10th or something, the stock didn't act that day, then it went up 30% over the course of the next few days. trades at 31 times next year's numbers, maybe 9% revenue growth. maybe 8% eps growth with margins that have been effectively flat lining for a couple years. it is an expensive stock. when you talked about china at the beginning of the show, that just adds to it. great company, you know, but expensive in this environment. >> want to button it off? >> it is expensive. and that's the question right now, their story is going to be artificial intelligence. is that going to be enough for people to start to upgrade their phones? they really need the upgrade cycle to happen. but you're seeing an

environment, look at the markets today, you're seeing everything do well outside of tech. there's this rotation out of those areas, because people are starting to question, can i justify these high valuations when there's so many other opportunities in the market, especially if rates are coming down. i think it's going to be a show me story with apple. >> and warren buffett would rather be in eye liner than iphones, right? >> that's a good point, yes. >> who wouldn't? >> i don't know. coming up, speaking of eye liner, a new black eye for boeing. what's the company's starliner disaster means for the future of boeing as problems mount for this beaten down stock. and we're going all-in on nvidia, ahead of the earnings. the technicals, the options, how you can play the numbers on this powerhouse. that's coming up next. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪

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boeing. spacex has been tapped now to bring back those stranded iss astronauts, but it won't be until next february. morgan brennan has been following all of this. how big a blow, morgan, is this for boeing, and its incoming ceo? >> oh, this is definitely a black eye, tyler. this starliner test mission has gone from eight days to eight months. this is a big upset for boeing to have spacex, its direct rival, step in here, and for the new ceo, this does speak to the magnitude of the challenge that confronts him. boeing already facing financial and execution challenges across both commercial and military aircraft programs, this is another negative, saying, quote, we would not be surprised if boeing were to die vest the manned space flight business. this is already cost boeing $1.5 billion given delays, tech issues. now, jeff ripries notes $125 min in charges so far this year. there is risk of delays that

would seem to be in the $500 million per year range with losses contributing to that firm's boeing defense and space free cash flow outflow of $2 billion this year, and $1.4 billion in 2025. that's according to jeffries. that's just the defense and space business. as for spacespacex, it launches tomorrow morning. this is going to include the first private spacewalk, new suits, two crew members who are also spacex employees, so, tyler, a real reversal, if you will here, from ten years ago, when spacex was seen as the underdog when nasa first awarded these contracts and tapped these two companies for this commercial crew program, but now it's spacex that's stepping in to bail out boeing. >> morgan, thank you. courtney, your take on boeing. >> i mean, boeing, it's been one thing after another. it's kind of exhausting -- >> for a decade. >> it really -- it just brings into question, like, is their space program even going to be able to continue? and this is a company that already has a strained balance

sheet. they are having all of their issues with the aircraft, currently, and it's just adding on top of that right now. which, this is a company that long-term, i mean, it is a duopoly, i don't think they're going anywhere, but i don't think you want to assume you're going to get that immediate rebound. so, maybe a long-term play, but if you are buying this for a short-term opportunity. >> i think with all being thrown at boeing right now, i don't know why you are selling the stock. given where i think the free cash flow will start to go, this 777-x, you know, component piece that failed in the test, is also another black eye. i mean, they -- it's one black eye after another. the reality is that they're still going to be positive free cash flow by the middle of '25, and the defense business that's barely valued here. so, i hate the headlines and the sentiment here. that's part of why i want to own the stock. >> hate the fact that a couple of people are going to have to stay up in space for six months more. >> can you imagine us being up

there? what would we talk about, do you think? seriously? >> you would educate me about rock 'n' roll music in a big way. >> i'd sing to you. but they're there until, like, january. >> february, yeah. >> anyway. spring training will be happening. >> tim just mentioned the defense portion. look at what lockheed martin has done, raytheon, all-time highs. all these stocks have done extraordinarily well. i mention that, because boeing has a component in their business that nobody seems to want to acknowledge. so, it's all about commercial, i get it, unless you start to sort of peel it back and say the defense portion is not being fairly valued. so, i'm with tim on this one. you're not selling it here. >> quick thought? >> it's fascinating when you think about tesla coming to the rescue here -- >> tesla? >> spacex. you think about their success there and you think about where tesla is as a company, spacex -- i'm sorry, and you say to yourself, why is he messing around with these evs? go do something that's so important. when you see the success of this company. and i think maybe that's in the

offing, you know? maybe they continue to actually have further success with some of the other rockets and -- i don't know. it doesn't seem like -- >> having a ton of success. make no mistake. they are so far ahead of our government on this, and i this i that's something that, you know -- >> satellite deployment. yeah. >> it should give you confidence that innovation in this country is still going to lead. i mean, i don't think we're expecting our government to be leading there, so. >> all right, we're going to move onto our next topic, coming up, we're going to tackle all things nvidia. the technicals, the options setup, and the fundamentals heading into wednesday's earnings. that's next. but that's not the only big report out this week. check out the huge slate of retailers on deck, as we dive deeper into the state of the american consumer, right after this. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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nonetheless. the s&p dropping nearly a third of a percent. the nasdaq falling more than 150 points. that's about 0.8%. wti crude jumping 3.5% today, amid some renewed tensions in the middle east. after nearly breaking below $70 last week. the commodity spiking to more than 77 bucks. kind of in between 70 and 80 for much of the summer. this on reports of a production halt in libya, as two rival governments compete there, as well as strikes between israel and hezbollah over the weekend. well, the markets seem to be waiting now for nvidia. the tech giant set to report earnings after the close on wednesday. the stock now up 150% this year, and the chart master thinks it can keep climbing after results on wednesday. let's bring in carter braxton wo worth. >> you bet. let's get right to you. five charts, tyler, that are all

identical, and you'll see it's just different ways to depict the circumstance at hand. so, first chart, just a one-year chart on nvidia, no lines, no drawings, no judgments, moving on. chart two. what we know that summer selloff was 35% versus the semis. but where did it stop? on trend. that is the actual trend line. the next strand is the automated trend line. it stopped to the penny at the 150-day, as it's done repeatedly over the past 12 months. if we put the last two together, last chart, we're just now moving out of this formation, doesn't matter if you call it a pennant or a flag, it represents good consolidation. remember, a 35% selloff, the stock has bounced off trend. i think you play long into earnings and post earnings. >> charts look like a bouncing

ball that is bouncing higher. right? >> fair enough. >> fair enough. right? >> yeah, fair enough. that works for me. >> you were looking for a little bit more from tyler. >> can we good-byed carter yet? >> no, we haven't. >> he talks too much. >> carter speaks with pictures and charts. >> i mean, yeah, those are pretty self-explanatory. five charts, they are identical. >> identical. >> bounce, bounce, higher, bounce, right? that's what it is. carter, thank you. mike khouw, what are the options markets saying about nvidia right now? >> well, you said it, tyler. you were talking about bouncing, and right now, the stock could move a little over 10% by the end of the week. i would point out, one month options right now are the highest they've been priced ahead of any earnings, including the last eight. so, this is at the highest valuation, and so, the volatility and the movement in the market we're expecting is as long as it's ever been.

and the busiest contract today was the august 30th expiration, so, we're talking about the weekending 130 strike calls. almost 120,000 of those representing 12 million shares trading for about $6.20 a contract. calls have been outpacing puts on average, so, options traders are betting on volatility. but they're still leaning long. >> all right, mike, thank you very much. dan, talk it through. >> listen, it's about expectations. the way carter is mapping it out makes perfect sense. sooner or later, there's going to be a quarter where guidance doesn't come in where these lofty expectations are. they've already told us a little bit about the push out of this blackwell, so, again, i think a lot of investors are going to want to hear about that. >> guy? >> 10% move, $320 billion move. i think there are only 45 companies in the world that have a market cap that big in the first place. and we throw these numbers around like they're not a big deal. i think it is. i think it's going to come down to margins.

guidance, eps will be fine. it's margins. if margins decrease more than the street, i think operating margins, 66%, that's going to be what the -- i think the street is focused on and why the stock can be vulnerable on the downside. >> the stock is slowly growing into, you could say growing into the valuation or actually outgrowing the valuation. but what i mean is, if you look at the first quarter year over year, we had 460% eps growth. second quarter, the, peckation is 137%. we already know the street is around 75% to 80% for the third quarter. so, we know what's going on with the expectations. they're coming into a place where i think they can be more reasonable. i think people are looking for an opportunity to buy this stock. what happened both august 5th and some of the dynamics around market volatility are a function of how crowded this trade is. everybody's talked about the pent-up volatility here. but i think people are looking to buy the weakness here. unless there is something we're not going to get in, you know, in a day and a half at this point. it's something that the market is willing to live with.

>> courtney, you're nodding. >> yeah, nvidia is not going anywhere. and the question is, are there earnings going to continue to axel rate as fast as they have? the bar does keep getting higher. that is the question. they're going to have other areas of the market that are accelerating. at what point do investors start to shirt into the better valuations? i don't think that's happening yet, but you do want to be aware. i wouldn't chase or be overweight currently, but absolutely hold onto it. it's not going anywhere. >> if you've owned it, chances are, you're overweight. >> pretty much everyone owns it at this point. >> right. okay. for more on what nvidia earnings mean to the broader market, let's bring in julian emanuel from evercore isi. he has a 6,000 price target on the s&p 500, which implies a 7% gain from today's close. it's one of the highest on the street, julian, welcome. why are you so happy? >> look, the way expensive markets end and this is an expensive market, and we all

know it is, it's been that way for the majority of the year, is one of two things. number one, you see an extraordinary amount of speculative froth. we've seen it before, meme stocks, go back to 2000, you know, the tech bubble, element set tra. lots of activity, lots of, you know, very bullish sentiment. >> but we're not there yet. >> we're not seeing that at all. okay? and on the other hand, the other thing that ends it is if we see concrete signs of recession. and, yes, the economy is slowing, but the concrete signs of recession aren't there. we were just told on friday that the soft landing looks pretty darn good. and that, in fact, if the labor market weakens, we're going to be -- 25 could be -- >> rising interest rates and we've got the opposite of that. >> well, exactly, exactly. the fed has been prepared, it is prepared. and, you know, they are sort of

the engineers. we've gone from the pandemic inflation adjustment directive to being the engineers of the soft landing. >> all right, maybe it's not concrete, but it's close. triggered last jobs report, without question, i think people are coming around to that now. and the resteepening of the yield curve, historically, suggests we're at the beginning of a slowdown, not towards the end. >> agree with all of those. and i think we'd also all agree that the -- some of the things that we've seen that traditionally we can point to, and i don't think it's any coincidence that some have been trying to talk themselves out of the rules of the evfficacy they created. normally, the recession would have started months ago. it's not to say that it's not going to happen, in fact, we think it could be at 2025 thing, but again, when you're thinking about how the market is right

now, and where stocks are going, the ingredients for either the blowoff or, you know, the turndown, because of weakness, they're just not there yet. >> do you think -- was there anything in friday, whether it was really kind of getting to, hey, we're going to support the labor market, was there anything that changed your view on friday to become more bullish? layer the weaker dollar into your bullish outlook, because that can be certainly very bullish for certain sectors. >> so, the weaker dollar, as you know, long historical tendency of being good for markets, and good for risk assets. that's obviously been the case in recent weeks. but i would also say this, this is just sort of a word of caution, particularly since it is september, we don't want to come back from the beach, we don't want to go back to school, stocks go down in september quite often. the dollar has been going down in a straight line at the same time the s&p 500 has been going up in a straight line since august.

look. long-term, those are very good messages. maybe you want to be just a little bit cognizant of risk in the very short-term, though. >> court? >> i'm curious what your position is in small caps. i think you are constructive there. and i'm curious -- i think people are divided, if that can last. and also, we're talking about china earlier, and those small caps have less exposure to china. i wonder if that plays into your decision there at all. >> it's a domestic focused story and always has been. and if you look back to friday, the message from jay powell was soft landing, and small caps love a soft landing. and frankly, what we saw in july, the incredible, like, very historic outperformance of small caps over the s&p 500, over the nasdaq, 12 months forward, small caps always outperform when you see that kind of explosion. >> you haven't mentioned it and i'm struck by how seldom it seems to be mentioned in commentary, and that is the election. does it matter? >> oh, yeah. it definitely matters.

there's no question about it. and, in fact, when you look at it in years where the balance of power in congress in particular is this tight, you get volatility. so, frankly, when you think about it, the first six months of this year, where there was very low volatility, welcome to the second half of the year. what we've seen in july and august, we're likely to see the rest of the year, both to the upside and the downside. it definitely matters. >> julian, what matters most, though, is earnings growth. when you think about that for the s&p 500, fact set, consensus is 11.5% in 2024, and i think that goes up in 2025, so, does that -- does a soft landing scenario kind of give that a bit of a tailwind? where are you on s&p 500 earnings? coming into this year, it seemed aggressive. >> so, we're a little bit below the street, and look, 2025, if you go back and you look at earnings estimates, historically, they come down between 5% and 10% for the next year. that hasn't happened the last

couple years, basically because until this year, we had two years of really punk earnings growth. we expect the historical trend to return. those numbers will get walked down, but the market will be able to deal with it in stride, we think. >> julian emanuel, thank you. i almost called you julian edelman like the football player. >> they look very similar. >> i'll take that any day of the week. rings aplenty. >> thank you for being with us. >> thank you. coming up, beyond nvidia, a host of consumer names on deck for earnings this week, from lulu to kohl's to best buy and beyond. we're going to break down that trade, next. plus, warner brothers discovery rallying today ahead of a key legal decision in its battle with the nba. the call that could decide the fate of this stroeaming company right after this. more "fast" in two. or a night person. or a...people person.

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. huge slate of retail earnings this week. 15 names. we've got nordstrom form, followed by foot locker, lulu, and more. courtney, which one of all of them are you most focused on? >> yeah, so, kohl's is coming out, that's really your discounter, right? those are some of the companies

that are doing really well, currently with their consumer who is under pressure with inflation. abercrombie is reporting this week, they've been under the radar, outperforming a lot of the big tech stocks, which is an interesting story here, because even though the consumer strained, as long as you have the right brand with the consumer, they're still doing well. consumer spending, they are just being choosey where they're spending. the question is, are they still continuing with that path? >> am i the last person to notice this, but jeans are back for women, right? jeans. >> easy, buddy. >> no, i'm making a point here on abercrombie. >> well, i think we have had this conversation as it pertains to lulu and other companies because of the re-emergence of denim. >> it's a shift. i live with three women. they've gone away from the skinny jean and moved into the flare and -- am i right? >> this is true. >> this is true, right? >> big upgrade cycle in the denim market. >> yeah. all right. what else are you watching in

retail, guys? >> i didn't mean -- >> dan's living with three -- i mean, i didn't realize dan was from utah. with that said, i mean, if you look at foot locker, it's been in a seven-year downtrend. you're on the cusp of breaking out to the upside. great run into earnings. foot locker, this could be really interesting. i want to say on the 28th, it's fl for me. >> the last word goes to you. >> yeah, i think the bigger story is what is happening with the consumer in general, right? i think -- we're going to see mixed with the retailer, some are going to do well, some aren't. you get pce on friday, as well. it's going to show where inflation is going. this is really just going to give you the insight into that. you want to listen to all of the retailers this week. >> already. coming up, the nba asking a judge to send warner brothers discovery to the bench. the league says the courts should dismiss the wbd lawsuit. would this be a crippling blow for that media company?

we'll have the latest on that after the break when "fast ne rurmoy"etns.its go presented by state street global advisors. today's challenge is to play 9 holes without the middle of your bag. how does that sound? that sounds terrible. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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following friday's 7% surge. but the gains may be short lived, as the streaming stock faces an uphill battle to keep its nba media rights. julia boorstin has the details in this story, which has lots of twists and turns, julia. >> that's right, tyler. well, despite the recent gains, the stock is still down 65% since the warner brothers discovery merger closed in april 2022, and late friday, the nba struck wbd a blow, filing a motion to dismiss its lawsuit to match amazon's $1.8 billion annual nba deal. the nba saying that warner brothers discovery could not match amazon's deal, imflipping that wbd doesn't have adequate resources, or the reach to effectively promote games on tnt or max. tnt sports responding that their offer, quote, is in the best interest of the fans. now, losing nba rights hurts warner brothers discovery negotiating abilities for the value of its streaming platform, and this comes as wbd suffers from the legal defeat of sports

joint venture venu. it was set to launch this fall. not anymore. now, the ceo is working to rejuvenate his studio with sequels to beetlejuice and the joker. now, other options for the company that s&p just put on negative credit watch include focusing on max's international expansion, bundling max with other platforms, potentially selling off some of its smaller assets. tyler? julia, thank you. tim? >> people underestimate this is still a company that's profitable. they're bog to be profitable in dtc. they're going to generate $4.5 billion in free cash flow in '24. so, the problem is, where is the future and where is the ability of this company to negotiate contracts and really, what is their special sauce? right now, it looked as if they were using the sports franchise to balance some new content material that they're trying to put out there. that's clearly in question. i think it's interesting at this point on a sum of the parts.

i don't think this is a company that -- it's a company that is generating free cash flow and sot pom point, that's interesting to people. >> all right, tim, thank you. nt,upex final trades. be right back. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim, you get to go first. >> tyler, thank you for joining us. walmart, really king of retail. >> courtney, you go next, but i want to introduce your family, grandma and grandpa are here, and your aunt. welcome. >> all from san diego. >> all the way from san diego. >> big "fast money" fans. >> wonderful. thank you for coming.

get on with it. >> yes, final trade, mlpx, a great way tofully the supply demand. >> dan? >> seller of uso. >> i'm a buyer of tyler mathieson. exxonmobil, tyler. >> there we go. got to leave it the.er thank you for watchinggo, we ha leave it there, thank you for watching fast money, "mad money" with jim cramer starts now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money, i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market summer and i promised up you find it, "mad money" starts now. >> a, i'm jim cramer looking to "mad money". i'm just trying to make a little money, my job s to educate, coach you, you can call me. what are we come out of money?