>> really, a lot of sort of plummeting stocks in retail. >> additionally what you see is even with nordstrom, which the stock went up -- >> and it had a good report. >> it says that customers are looking for value. >> folks, great to be with you. >> nice to be with you. >> thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to closing bell. i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange. what dan ives calls the most important report for the year for the markets. he'll join us in a bit to explain further. take a look at the stock. we're a little more than an hour away from those numbers. the outlook most important, stocks have been down all day about 2%. elsewhere, a pretty defensive day as well for the majors and they've been red throughout the session. we'll watch it over the final stretch. all that is at stake for

nvidia it afself. steph and josh are nbc contributors. josh, you get the first word because you're my guy on nvidia. what do people need to know here? >> i think the most interesting thing here is that, despite the fact this market company has grown to the size that it has, the volatility is still with us. it's usually not the case. usually as companies become larger we expect the maturation in their business. as a result, we're less jumpy about the stock price from day to day. nvidia is just a different thing entirely. it's its own self-contained casino in the stock and options market, and this report is no different. nvidia is expected to move plus or minus 11% in reaction to the earnings tonight. for the last eight quarters, the

average implied move post earnings was plus or minus 12%. so the game is still the game. that's the first thing i would tell you. the second thing, expect an earnings per share of 65 cents. just to set the table, that's 138% year-over-year of gain on revenue of $28.7 billion, which is a 113% gain. if you look at the last reactions to earnings from 2023 through today, reactions were plus 14%, plus 24%, then we had a flat, then we had a minus 2%, which is in conceivable, but it happens. then a plus 16, and then we had a zero. so really the average reaction through last quarter, throughout 2023 and '24 is plus 10%. as i've shown you, the results have been all over the map. we haven't had the big down reaction. that's the one thing we haven't seen yet since the nvidia era began. i'm not suggesting tonight will

be the start. just keep in mind, it is in the realm of possibilities, even though we haven't seen it in this time frame. >> so, stacey, all eyes on guidance, obviously, as it always is. so near $32 billion in revenues is the guide, the expected guide. how much above that is needed to get what josh would call a big plus reaction out of the stock? >> yeah. i think the whispers are closer to $33, $34 billion, which would imply a $34 billion plus data center guide. so they guided $28 billion for this quarter, the street is higher, $28.8. the street is around $31.8 for next quarter. probably looking $33 to $34. >> are you optimistic they're going to get to that? >> this is the interesting

thing. everybody has been wondering what the blackwell delays might mean for any of this. i actually think for q3 it's probably not much of an issue. there wasn't going to be a ton of blackwell revenues in q3 anyways. q4 and beyond, maybe we'll get some color on that. i think there's still a ton of demand. they're still shipping everything they can sell. i think they've been able to backfill some -- they had a minor delay, but they've been able to backfill most or not all of it with hopper. i think revenue should be fine. i think more around commentary, what does this delay actually mean, if anything, as we go into the end of the year and beginning of next year? are there any changes to the roadmap that might influence the trajectory? what does it mean for gross margins as they're maybe shifting the roadmap around? that's more qualitative commentary we may get that may be important and may move the stock one way or the other. the revenue numbers i think will

probably be fine. >> so, how do we judge whether this company is simply the first mover by a mile, if not more, or if they really have a moat, because their product is so far superior to everyone else's at this point? >> i think both go hand in hand. you are the first mover, that's what they've been doing. remember, this is not a new thing for nvidia. they've been going down this path for 15 years, if not longer, creating that moat around hardware and systems and everything else. i think that's how they've gotten to the point where they have such a lead. it's synergistic, i don't know that you have one without the other. they seem to have both. >> wow, interesting. so, steph, you don't own the stock but watch it closely. you do watch for the reaction it will have and what it means for the overall market.

how are you thinking about that? >> there's a lot of hype today. i understand this is important, but there's a lot of hype. and i think it's going to be -- there's no question about demand. demand is going to be strong, the hyper scalers told us that. they're going to spend $224 billion this year, up 41%. this is all on ai stuff. $266 billion next year, up 17%. so the demand is definitely there. the expectations are super, super high, up 151% year-to-date. it is now 7% of the s&p 500 weight, 22% of the smh weight, and bigger than five other sectors in the s&p 500, which includes energy, utilities, materials, staples, even staples. so it's big, it will have a meaningful impact on the markets overall because of its weighting. i think the setup is a little challenging because it's up so much and expectations are so

high. 90% of the sale side have buys on this. demand is not the question. can it live up to these high expectations? they have beaten in the last four quarters their own revenue guide by $2 billion. and, of course, davis center is going to be the focal point and the whisper numbers are $26 to $27 billion this quarter and $26, $27 billion next quarter. >> would you buy it if it does have the upset that -- who knows whether it's going to happen or not. but if the stock goes down a lot, would you finally buy it? >> i guess it depends on how much it's down. you know what i'll buy, broadcom. >> at what point do you say broadcom has been great for me, but now i've got a golden opportunity to get the golden goose and i don't want to wait anymore. are you thinking about that? >> always, always. it's been humbling not owning

it. but i've made so much money in broadcom and lam research to your point. i've been able to outperform in spite of not owning the best in the breed. up 151%, it's going to have to come down a bunch for me to get comfortable chasing something when i can probably get broadcom a little cheaper. >> when we talk about the incredible gains the stock has had, invariably we ask the question, what's in the stock already? what is already priced in? how are you thinking about that? >> so, i would love to hear stacy's take on this as someone who is really covering the tennis match of all the comments being made by nvidia customers. but from my perspective, and we made this point on "half time" yesterday, the companies that matter most to nvidia's revenue have all given guidance on capex, basically making it clear

they're not backing down yet. and there have been a lot of articles in the press about where is the roi, what's the killer app, where's the product that's really going to solidify, like whether or not this is a hype, or it's the real deal, et cetera. so my opinion on that last rhetorical question is that we won't know what this really is worth until we see what apple does in the space. and it might take two iterations. so the definitive answer of, like, consumer use of ai is probably a year to 18 months from now. then we'll have a really good idea of what this is worth or not worth. but in the interim, you heard mark zuckerberg commit to $42 billion in capex, you heard the guy at alphabet say the bigger risk is underinvesting. these are companies that are -- i don't know, 40% of nvidia's revenue, all telling you they're not stopping is spend. from my perspective, that's a pretty good feeling going into

this number, because they are a late reporter, having already heard from their biggest customers. >> yeah, i think that's absolutely right. at this point spending is not slowing down. they're in an existential race with each other, these large customers of nvidia. you're absolutely right. sundar did say exactly that, capex numbers are going up this year, going up next year. i think it's even wrong to say we don't know the return. we're starting to see evidence of returns. we've had companies like walmart that have started to talk in public about what they're doing with generative ai. tesla has talked about this. it may not be revenues that are driving returns. it may be driving efficiencies, which are harder to measure. we're already starting to see evidence of end-user returns on the back of this. given that the hyper-scalers are sort of in this fight with each

other, none of them can afford to back off at this point. i think the spending continues. >> let me just ask you real quick, because it leads to the question, like, iwonder at this point, whose guidance is more relevant to nvidia's story, the others -- >> microsoft. >> -- or nvidia? >> yeah, it's funny. we get to do more than one earnings with nvidia every quarter, because the large hyper scaler prints are just as important for nvidia's stock as nvidia's is. that's how it is. it's something we've got to pay attention to. that's not uncommon in semis, but this is important for nvidia. >> when you think about it in that context, stacy, barring some significant belt-tightening from the hyper-scalers, there's no reason that it sounds like, in your mind, to have any bit of concern of a meaningful nature

about nvidia, even if there's a modest delay in blackwell? >> from the demand side i'm not worried at this point. and we'll see if there's a delay, if that causes issues. hypothetically let's say we roll to the end of the year and it's not as strong. it just makes next year look better. as long as that demand for blackwell is there, i think if there was any weakness in the stock at that point, it would probably get bought. i think the danger is if the demand signs start to lag. if one of these large hyper-scalers blinks, that could be a problem. we're not anywhere near that. and finally, everybody asks what's priced in. josh and i have talked about this before. i know everybody argues with nvidia's valuation but the stock is not expensive if the numbers are close to being right. it's much cheaper than it was a year and a half ago when this started. the stocks got up a ton, the earnings have gone up a lot more

and the stock has gotten cheaper, much cheaper than it was before all this started. >> scott, when you talk to ctos, they'll tell you they're spending in two places, ai and cybersecurity. ai because they don't know what ai is for their business and learning it real time and can't afford not to, hence the hyper-scalers fighting it out in terms of capex. on the cyber side, they're afraid of losing their business overnight. it's clear that you're going to continue to see spend here. i just go back to the expectations are super high, and so i think you want to make sure you know that. the risk/reward is not nearly as good in the short-term, given the 151% move year-to-date and 26% up in the last four weeks. >> we're not just talking about price action of an elevating price of a stock. you think it's expensive, right? stacy would say it's not, the stock is not expensive. it's 47 times. you've made a significant position in amazon, right?

what's that trading at? >> well, yes, but it's trading at 13 times ebita and there's a lot of ways you can win in amazon. i'm not saying you can't win in nvidia over a long period of time. i'm just saying today it's not the most important thing on earth, that's number one, in terms of this report. number two, the expectations are really high. i wouldn't be surprised if you see a pullback. if you see a pullback i suspect most people will be buying it. those that own it may buy more. >> josh, when you look at the greater context of the other side of the coin of what it means to the overall market, maybe this answer would have been different had we still been in some sort of pullback period like the one we saw on august 5th. well, we've had a good rally back. so does that increase the stakes even more for the market itself? >> well, look at that period, because nvidia this year has been in the 20% draw down.

how many people who said, i'll bear it in the next bear market, correction, you didn't have long. you had a couple of days. this stock has given people plenty of opportunities to change their mind. and i think one of the reasons why people are anchored to it being, quote, unquote, too expensive for the last, i don't know, 4000% it's gone up, in 2020 this was a video game software and chip provider effectively. and the analysts covering it were covering take two. the same person covering nvidia -- stacy is probably chuckling. the person covering this name was also covering the grand theft auto launch. you also had maniacs who were valuing it based on how many gpus they can sell to bitcoin min miners. the reason the stock got re-rated is because all of a sudden the technology wave made

it so that all of these cpu architecture based data centers effectively had to rip that equipment out and put in gpus for parallel processing. understand, data center revenue, since august of 2021, so that's three years, has grown at 110%. nvidia's gaming business has only grown at 14%. so there's a lot of people who were covering this stock a couple years ago who were still anchored to this concept of, oh, they have, like, a gaming business and professional visualization, and they have a little bit of automotive. no, it's a data center company. the fastest growing in the world. the most essential software and chip combo. and everybody needs more than they have today. that was the turn that you had to make to pick up what was really happening with the story. they were not involved to any extent in ai data center

buildouts when i bought the stock in 2015 because nobody was in that business. so there's been an evolution in the story here, and the valuation has certainly grown, but, honestly, it was more expensive two years ago because people understand the past earnings are not the thing. the thing is what are the future earnings. and this story caught everybody by surprise, because of this technological revolution. that hasn't changed. >> want to address that? because the arc of this company has been remarkable. >> yeah, by the way, the stock is 38 times forward, it's not 47. >> even cheaper. >> even cheaper. so, look, the data center story has always been the future story of the company, but josh is absolutely right. in 2020 it was primarily gaming that was driving it. and frankly, it was cryptocurrency, bitcoin. that crashed out and actually took the stock down with it when it happened.

but it kind of cleared the path. this data center centric story has been the hope of the stock and the hope of jensen for many years. it's only in the last year and a half, two years where it's finally come into its own with the advent of chatgpt and generative ai and everything else. it's finally now becoming clear. i think the potential of this market. this was something that i think the bulls always had this as their long-term thesis. it is finally playing out for everybody to see. it's not just the bulls that can imagine it. it's happening in front of everybody today. >> yeah, stacy, i really appreciate your time. i know we'll hear from you on the other side. it's going to be exciting. i'm going to say good-bye to you because i want to continue the conversation withjosh and steph about crowdstrike, which, oh, yeah, also reports. there's a lot on the line here, too. steph, josh has owned it for a while and you're reasonably new

to the stock. priced in, works both ways. >> you're right. i started buying it when it was down 41% from its highs and it went from 22 times ebita sales. not cheap, but for the number one player in the security market, i thought that was interesting. i think the quarter is going to be very strong. i think the guide is the key. what about costs, discounts? i think churn is contained, and i think the most important number out there -- i think it's troughing -- the net new annual recurring revenue. $ $190 million in expectations, maybe one quarter about the same level. that's what people will be focused on, as well as did they take a charge. there's a lot of moving parts. i don't think it matters on the earnings, per se. it's all these other things. >> josh? >> there's a guide piper sandler

who covers the stock, i forget his name, very handsome. he had downgraded crowdstrike in -- rob owens. he downgraded the stock? july before the big i.t. outage, so he ended up looking really smart, but by accident. but he just upgraded it in early august to an overweight, and the title of his note was, this, too, shall pass. and i just want to read people one sentence from there, because i think it really encapsulates the story here. given the strong cash flow generation, over a billion in 12 month free cash below and the potential monetary example of delta, plus the fact that crowd carries insurance for this type of incident, we have little concern about the cost side of the equation. however, at some level this will impact numbers through new business, renewals, churn and discounting, not to mention a

seemingly more challenged current backdrop. that's the thing here. we know there's going to be charges, obviously. everybody knows that. the stock fell 200 points. we also know that it was probably more difficult during the course of the rest of the quarter that we're in right now and will remain difficult to close new business. what you have to ask yourself if you're making an investment -- not a trade, an investment, is that sufficiently discounted, and if it's not, how much more potential downside could there be? so i'm with this analyst and many others who have remarked there's no reason for management not to be conservative when they give guidance for the rest of the year. that should be your expectation. the questionis, okay, but then what? is the worst over? my answer is, yes, it probably is. >> steph, the last word. there are two sides to every market. redburn today reiterated their sell and they talked about ai is contributing a short-term

demand, rather than sustainable. the recent outage cast additional pressure on top line with potential risk of increased churn and recourse from customers. as one analyst suggests, look, they'll get through it, it's not that big of a deal, this one suggests it is. >> right. and so you asked me before, are the expectations low enough? i don't know. i thought down 41% for the best in breed, best product in the industry, what i just said earlier, ctos are spending their money, i thought it was an opportunity. i would love for them to really just sandbag guidance, like horrible, stock falls down, then i buy more. because it's only a small position for me. whenever i can get the number one or number two company on sale, really big time sale, and a big d rating in the valuation, i think it's worth a shot. >> guys, that was fun. josh, thank you. steph, great having you here. to pippa stevens for a look at the biggest names.

>> shares of chewy are jumping after better than expected q2 earnings, and upbeat profit guidance. net sales per active customer grew, with the ceo telling cnbc the company's investment into a better customer experience is paying off, and that pet household formation is normalizing, which is a positive sign. and aerovironment up after they secured a $190 million from the u.s. army for munition systems. the stock is upgraded after the news, saying the contract locks in visibility for the product through 2029. those shares up 9%. >> pippa, thank you. we're just getting started. up next, jeff degraaf is back and flackgging trouble in s charts. he's going to reveal the headlines he's seeing for this market. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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talk about easier investing. . s&p 500 trading just shy of a record high. our next guest sees potential headwinds brewing under the surface. joining me, jeff degraaf, renaissance chairman and head of research. what are the problems we need to be aware of? >> i think it's the characteristics of the market and the leadership. we've seen a distinct shift away from tech and toward more defense. we could get even more broad and say defense versus cycleality. and the seasonals tend to soften. during election years, it's tumultuous, whether before the election or not, it generally tends to be a tough environment. the other thing i think is important, scott, when we went back and looked at the first fed

rate cuts in every cycle, and there's been 15 since the inception of the s&p 500, you're talking about roughly a 50/50 shot at the market being up over the next one to three months. but i think what was really interesting in our study was that tech really takes it on the chin. tech underperforms about 80% of the time after the first rate cut. so there is a decisive move towards defensiveness once you get that first rate cut, and usually that's because it's not one and done and the economy ends up being weaker than what the expectations are, and it requires additional fuel from the fed to get things going. so i think we've got a bumpy period that we're staring right down the barrel at. >> i would only suggest that maybe this time actually is different, dare i say, because how many of those periods in which you looked was the fed cutting because they wanted to, because they could, not because they had to? they're just normalizing rates.

the rate, as i suggested yesterday, relative to where inflation is, just makes no sense. and the economy is just fine. >> well, the economy is fine as we see it today, right? but the data, remember, we're going to be getting data out three and six months from now that's really a reflection of where the economy is today, and i think that's important. the other part, too, and maybe this is what you alluded to yesterday, which is the spread between the fed fund and the two-year right now is roughly 135 basis points. and that's a pretty good proxy for where the fed should be, the policy rate versus the market rate. and that differential when it's this inverted -- and by the way, this is the most inverted it's been since 2007, right? so, that obviously was a policy mistake that undid a lot of leverage in the system. and i'm not saying that we have this housing crisis or the same pillars of sand we had back then. but certainly there are areas of the market that probably need to be liquefied and will be because of this extreme. so my concern is actually -- if

this spread were 50 basis points, no big deal, right? this is going to take five cuts from the fed just to get us back on sides, and that means it's going to have to be pretty persistent and aggressive. i'm not sure the fed is ready to do that. clearly, they're on the right path and they're talking a good game. they're going to need to see some action to avoid some of this. >> what if i suggested what was viewed as defensive in the past isn't necessarily defensive today? utilities, for example. because of the power generation required for ai, maybe we're playing a little offense there in ways that we didn't before. and maybe in health care, where we thought these were defensive yield-type plays, now we're talking about glp1s and transformational change in health care like we are in technology. >> i will say the data -- so forget where we are today, and this time is different, but the data is very clear, which is if i were to just use the history

of the data, i would be selling tech and buying health care. no doubt about it. that really is a standout in terms of what happens historically around the initiation of a fed easing policy. so whether that's because they're more defensive and less prone to revenue swings, unlike what you see out of tech, i'm not sure. my gut says it's probably something. we could start stacking on some of the ozempics and some of the new technologies that we see around health care on top of that. but i do think there's probably an underlying bid because of the consistency that you see in the defensive nature of health care. i would just add as well that health care looks the least attractive in the u.s. it looks most attractive in the pacific rim, even in europe it looks better than the u.s. i actually look at that as a bullish fephenomenon for the u. because we've got pull horses stronger in front of us than the horse we're riding right here.

>> how would you address the issue of -- we sit here and say, well, the market is not broad, it's tech heavy. now it's broadening and we're deciding we don't like that either, because, well, tech is weakening lately. the slack is being picked up elsewhere. how can we have it both ways? >> you can't have it both ways. there's no doubt you've got this improvement broadly, and that's good. that would actually add to that, that the financials are one of the kind of secret weapons here in terms of leadership in the market. so the broadening has actually led to strength. we're seeing strength in utilities, as you mentioned, but we're also seeing it in regional banks and we're seeing it in areas -- obviously they're interest rate sensitive, no doubt about that. but i think the good news and what keeps us away from thinking this is a balance sheet r recession, into something more palatable and soft landing and correction in the market, is that you do see the strength of

financials, which means that you probably don't have impairments of write-downs and assets. you do continue to see really stability in the triple spreads versus treasuries, the credit marks are still relatively healthy. we're in an okay spot, i just think we're going to see some vulnerability in the near term and turbulence, but i think it's really important, because there's a lot of bullishness around the first fed rate cut and we think the curveball is probably that the rate cut means things that you would otherwise expect to go up aren't going up and you have to have a little different flavor in the portfolio to manage through that. >> we didn't even mention nvidia, didn't even mention it once. >> what's that? >> incredible in and of itself. we'll talk about it next. jeff, thanks. we'll see you soon. star analyst dan ives, he's the one who said nvidia's report, the most important of the year. he's going to join us next.

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nvidia dipping ahead of the company's q2 earnings report just after the bell. my next guest calling it the most important earnings report for the stock market this year, dan ives joining us. i don't think many would agree. it's obviously important. the most important thing you're watching for is what? >> it's really what jensen, godfather of ai talks about in terms of demand.

because there's no better perch in terms of from an ai chip perspective than from what nvidia sees. the october quarter, it's really going into the next call in six months. everything we're seeing from the asia supply chain perspective, i think it's a drop the mic performance tonight. >> what about the possible blackwell delays and getting more clarity on exactly what that is? because when you say, well, you'll hear from him on demand, we already know demand is great. we heard from the hyper-scalers. we know revenues on capex are up 50% over the period of a year. what about blackwell? >> i don't view that -- even if we're talking about two, three months, anything that moves out of the october quarter, when we look from a capex perspective, look at plblackwell, if you cou guide up $1 billion, $2 billion with a delay in terms of the trajectory, you're going to start looking at what ultimately

about be five to $6 earning power. and i think the most important thing, you have the pieces of the puzzle, this rubik's cube. you have the capex players, you have names like service now and others. but as the godfather of ai speaks tonight, this is the final piece that shows that this ai party we've talked about, it's 9:00 p.m. and it goes until 4:00 a.m. >> speaking of ai, kate rooney has some news for us regarding openai. >> a source telling me that openai is raising another round of funding. this is going to be led by thrive capital. it puts the ai startup's valuation at roughly $100 billion, according to the source, openai and thrive did decline to comment. a source close to the matter telling me that tri-valley is go -- thrive is putting in $1 billion. they're saying that microsoft is

also expected to put in some additional funding. this would be the biggest round, scott, since openai and microsoft and that deal back in january of 2023. microsoft invested around $10 billion. there's been an arms race in terms of spending. it's expensive to run one of these models. they are building a war chest. $100 billion is a massive number, puts it near the likes of stripe, spacex, some of the most highly valued silicon valley valleys. the latest in the arms race, back to you. >> kate, i appreciate that timely report, obviously having dan ives sitting next to me. do you want to comment? >> we have a trillion dollars of capex, of ai that's come down the road. you look at openai's position, that's the golden child in terms of where i view ai. this is just the start. we talk about valuations that continue to increase. it's a scarcity value, no different than nvidia. when it comes to openai, nadella

continue to win the race. >> so the greater picture for mega tech off the back of what nvidia delivers is what? >> bullish. this is i believe the start of tech rallies into year end. you've got the ai revolution coming to cupertino in terms of the iphone. this is the start. we believe -- it's not just about nasdaq, big cap tech, this is just the beginning of the next phase of the bull market, and i think it all starts tonight. >> okay, you're optimistic, it seems, from your notes, on salesforce, which also reports in overtime. you say you expect the start of an ai era from marc benioff and company. have they been spinning their wheels to this point? the stock has done nothing year-to-date. they've underperformed, obviously, the rest of tech in the nasdaq. what's been the problem and why are you optimistic now?

>> it starts with our multiplier. for every dollar spent on a chip, we think $8 to $10 multiplier across the tech. salesforce haven't benefitted yet. but we look out six, nine, months, there's going to be a massive talon for them when you look at their install business. i think it's going to be a slight bounceback quarter. this is a name i think is going to have a renaissance of growth, that's everything we see showing it's about the install base, no different than oracle. benioff and salesforce will be next. >> i've got another analyst i'm looking at right now at oppenheimer who says of his own field checks, they weighed slightly negative for salesforce's business activity and operating environment. quote, we don't anticipate estimates to change materially after the earnings update. just fundamentally disagree with one view versus yours? >> first, there's been a lot of

skepticism on salesforce. even going back to the elliot activism, many thought it would be so much lower than today. i think this is a quarter, not expecting any major fireworks, but i think the story of salesforce, it's not about this quarter. it's about where this goes in the next six, nine months. >> why isn't it getting any credit as the market looks ahead six, nine months traditionally? all these other companies are getting credit for the ai deliverables that we assume are going to take place. why is it this one? >> i think many missed oracle, i think they'll miss salesforce. we're talking about a stalwart. benioff, he's going to be the one at the top in terms of tech. i think this will be the next phase, despite many of the bears out there right now on salesforce. >> i appreciate you dan ives. thank you for being with us. up next, we track the biggest movers into the close and head back to pippa stevens for that. >> two retailers are down double

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on. >> shares of abercrombie are tumbling. they beat results and raised their outlook but the ceo warned of an increasingly uncertain environment as macro conditions worsen. foot locker is also under pressure, after reporting a five cent loss for q2, with the retailer also largely maintaining its guidance, saying that while the print is supportive of the longer-term thesis, international will be a source of q3 weakness. those shares down 11%, scott. >> pippa, thank you. still ahead, crowdstrike reporting its first quarterly result since triggering that major global outage. we're gog uninto r through what to watch for when the bell comes right back.

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crafted just for traders. ♪♪ all so you can trade brilliantly. ♪♪ big earnings, and coming up we're going to walk you through what to watch for from crowdstrike, nvidia and more, inside the market zone next. ne o logistics than these three. you need them. they need a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you with a plan that's right for your team. let our expertise round out yours.

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the crucial moments. what to expect from crowdstrike, coming up. seema mody on the must-see report, which is nvidia. speaking of, mike, how should we take this day into context of where we go from here? >> i'm very interested to see whether it's a ripple just for nvidia or if, in fact, it's somehow a clearing event for the psychology around the growth stock trade, which has really lagged. it has been an unusually defensive rebound from a correction. we sit here at 5600 exactly, almost, on the s&p 500. that is the post we've been leashed to for almost two weeks. it's been relatively cautious, berkshire hathaway, jpmorgan and big pharma holding up the s&p today. so i do think it's a test of nerves for the long-term story whether they can start to address the idea that they're hogging, like, a ridiculously

huge percentage of this massive capex, or if it's just steady as she goes. pencil in fiscal 2026. that, we'll see. i do think the market has been a little edgy and uneasy, and maybe a little bit too fickle day to day, even within this range. i'm not sure if we have to sort of test some levels lower on the indexes before we know if this rebound was for real. >> we'll be back to you in a minute. steve, crowdstrike important as well. >> it's not just nvidia. these crowdstrike earnings are going to be overshadowed by the huge i.t. outage in july. since that date crowdstrike shares are down more than 20%. there are going to be lots of questions here, what's happening next, including the fight with delta, which is asking microsoft and crowdstrike for $500 million in damages. microsoft is going to be hosting crowdstrike and some other cybersecurity firms at its headquarters on september 10th to figure out a plan forward.

in the meantime, we're expecting the call after the earnings comes out to focus on how much the fallout is ultimately going to cost crowdstrike. we're going to hear from crowdstrike's ceo, george kurtz tomorrow night on "mad money." >> seema, you can take this wherever you want to. >> can you feel the excitement? we're about 20 minutes away from the biggest reporter of earnings, nvidia, and the broader chip sector trading down. two things we'll be looking for, a window into capex spend for 2025 and beyond, it was written that they are struggling to get overly bullish without guidance on how much the hyper-scalers plan to spend. plus an updated timeline on when nvidia expects blackwell to be shipped out to customers and how the gaming business is holding up. options market predicting a 10% move in either direction, $300 billion move. >> we'll see what happens and we'll see you soon.

mike, back to you. to your point, the market is a little on edge. >> just clenching up just a little bit. you didn't get back to the old highs. it's a silly tactical thing, we stopped within less than a percent of the july highs of the s&p 500. there's a leadership transition that seems to be under way. what you have with nvidia is almost the exception to the rule in the sector. the average semi stock has been lagging badly at this point. i think the macro hovers above all of it because the broader market wants to know if we can kind of sound anything close to an all clear on the soft landing story. we got really comfortable with it on friday. i think it's natural to start to rethink that. to your note, keep pointing to it, it's suggesting it's time to get going. maybe we're late, maybe we're on time. jobs number next friday.

a lot of things filtering into the psychology in a liquid week with a ton of air pockets and not a lot of volume. >> we'll see what happens in a few moments. don't go anywhere. it's time. stocks pulling back as investors await a potentially narrowing shifting event coming in 20 minutes. that is the scorecard on wall street. i'm jon fortt back with morgan brennan. >> reunited. it is the moment all of wall street has been waiting for. nvidia earnings just moments away. we've got a packed lineup of guests ready to break down every angle and the impact on your money. >> and we'll also get numbers from salesforce, crowdstrike, affirm, hp and many more. let's get right to it. joining us is bespoke