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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  August 29, 2024 9:00am-11:00am EDT

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consumer is using these products regularly on a daily basis, and so those items that were purchased in 2020, 2021 now start to need to be replaced, and best buy stands in great position to benefit from that. >> michael, thanks so much. >> thank you very much. all right, folks, that does it for us today. guys, thank you very much for being here. it's been fun. join us tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ all right, good thursday morning, everybody, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber. that's jim cramer. we're live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off. let's give you a quick look at futures. of course, we get started with trading on this thursday in august. you can see we are expecting a higher open. we've got a lot to talk about this morning. >> oh, my. >> and let's get right to it. our road map, well, we'll call it the a.i. trade, of course. nvidia's forecast, you know, i
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don't even know, it says disappointing. i'm not sure that's the right word. >> it turned out that nvidia is mortal. and they basically said that they had a chip they could make, and it turns out the yield is not that great. >> we're going to talk about that. >> that's it? >> no. we're doing the rundown. have you never done the show before? let's move on from there. salesforce and apple. i'm telling people what we're going to talk about. we're going to talk about salesforce and apple. apple reportedly ordering 10% more iphones. that, at least, according to japan's nikkei. of course, as they get ready for their gen a.i.-enabled phone. and we'll check on the consumer. we got dg, dollar general, not good, but best buy looks pretty good. so, both of those. and so many more. we'll talk u.s. steel, the markets. let's get to it, jim. you ready? let's get to it. let's start with nvidia. lofty expectations. down as much as 7% right after
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the earnings came out. right now, i'm looking at a stock that may be down as little as four bucks. >> you're trying to figure out on, say, a $5 in 2027, thank you, ben reitzes from melius, what should it really sell at? do you think this stock should sell at 20 times earnings? no. this is a really great company. it deserves a premium. >> premium multiple. >> david, have you ever been to -- if you've ever been to a foundry, i've been to a foundry when they're first starting a new run, and they just throw away a huge amount, and i think that -- not that jensen necessarily got it wrong, but the yields were very low, so in other words, like, when intel -- >> we have him talking about it on the conference call. >> you have this? oh, man. >> let's take a listen to what he had to say in particula about that ramping up of production of those new blackwell chips. >> that datacenter worldwide earns full steam to modernize the entire computing stack with accelerated computing and
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generative a.i. hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for blackwell is incredible. >> well, i guess that wasn't really -- >> they just can't make them fast enough. they're sort of -- there's a hit to gross margins, and that gothed people. but i also think when you have nvidia watch parties, a la, when you have in the premier league, you have these teams that wilf can talk about. i don't know, they're in strange british cities. >> yes. >> what happens is that -- well, there you are. that's a watch party. >> what's good is that what they're watching is us. as in cnbc. i'm happy about that. >> no, and you got -- that is the correct takeaway, of course. but i do think that that, plus the national nvidia day, and how the nation kind of stopped at a certain point, no. i mean, we have to go back to reality, which is that nvidia's a company, and jensen's a man, and they did have some product issues in terms of what i regard as just being, look, we didn't make as many as we'd like. but 2025 will be fine.
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>> but demand remains unabated, clearly. we've talked about, of course, the continued capex plans of all the largest companies in the world. >> 45% of the business is them. >> and datacenter revenue's at $26.3 billion. again, to put it in perspective, you're talking about what is 2.5 times what it was not even that long ago. >> and i was out with a prominent semi executive who said, who makes these whispers? and i said, short sellers who then given it to their compadres on the sell side so the number is too high and they have to beat $2 billion and they can't, so the stock gets rocked. >> let's come back to the multiple. i'm reading from stacey raskin -- >> stacey is -- has distinguished himself. >> analysts in this area. says, of year gross margin outlook, which does seem down a bit. he says he thinks the overall
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gross margin into the fourth quarter should still be very respectable. by the way, the gross margins, just look at it as a business. step back and just look at this business. 75% operating margins. >> they used to try to get to 60% at the height of intel. they would get to 63%. during the period where everyone knew that intel was the greatest company on earth as a manufacturer, and these guys are blowing that away. they're just blowing it away. should it get with -- what do you want to give it, a 25 multiple? >> that's my question to you. revenue growth more or less, at least for the near term, seems unabated. we can have the longer conversation about when the capex spending starts to show or when, frankly, gen a.i. has taken in all the data in all the world. that's years down the road, perhaps, but right now, revenue growth is strong. gross margins, the likes of which we've rarely if ever seen, so what's an appropriate multiple for this company? >> let's say they do $5, calendar year 2026.
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>> eps number. >> yes. so, give it a 30 multiple. >> all right. >> why not? give it a 30 multiple and you've got a stock that's down $30 from where it will be. but now, it's become a little more show-me, because we realize that jensen huang, in the end, is fallible. we didn't think he was fallible. now he is. so, maybe some people feel like we can't give it that multiple. i don't think that's a big, tall order, give it a 30 multiple on a $5 number. what the hell? why not? but i think, david, we all were kind of surprised to hear that there were yield problems. we kind of felt that it was turnkey. we should never have thought it was turnkey. >> it's not easy coming up with a new chip. >> one of the things that he emphasized overand over again is the return on investment is radically great. in other words,you get it, and you do really well, because accelerated computing is one part of it, and then the generative a.i. he emphasized accelerated computing. he emphasized the need to
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replace a trillion dollars. >> in the fourth quarter, they expect to ship several billion dollars in blackwell revenue. >> people are thinking about tens of billions. they're not going to get that. >> hopper demand is strong. >> how about the industrial implications? they were very good. auto was very good. it was not just meta and not just amazon, and not just google. and not just microsoft, which, by the way, was mightily attacked on the marc benioff call, which we'll get to soon. >> let's get to it now. >> we're done with nvidia? >> well, we're not -- >> don't you want to critique the watch party? >> this is "squawk on the street." we're never done with nvidia. >> thank you. >> but we may not mention it for the next 45 seconds. >> that's fair. >> okay. you want to talk a little salesforce? >> no, first, we should talk paramount first. you play that game with me? listen, man. you play that game -- >> that wasn't an insult. >> you're going to get burned. do not get into my part of the
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field. i will tackle you. >> do you think i want to talk about paramount? do you think i want to? i have to. but not anymore. let's talk salesforce. let me read it. it's the leaders on the s&p 500, at least premarket. >> it is very rare that we actually, us, become part of the story, so i'm going to ask for a particular piece of tape that demonstrates how integral we are to the story. boom. boom. hm. >> they don't have it. >> no, we don't have that. >> we have it. we have it. we do have it. they don't seem to know what we're talking about in the control room. >> boom. god, i look like an idiot. geez. >> let me tell you about salesforce. it poste guidance, also announced that amy weaver has decided to step down. >> fifth ceo. let's not -- i like amy very much, but a lot of people were saying, jim, you're too bullish. >> you want to hear from
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benioff? this is what he had to say last night, at least, on "mad money" when jim spoke to him about the benefits of building a.i. into the company's platform. >> i've never seen so much money wasted by customers trying to build their own a.i. it's crazy what has happened. and some of these huge companies like microsoft have told those customers to go train their own models and build their own models and then retrain their own models. jim, we've built all that right into our platform, so you can build your model and train your model and fine-tune your model in our platform. you don't have to go do that to some hyperscaler. >> let me explain to people. he's saying this do-it-yourself thing that people are doing is wrong. salesforce is a pro. and he did talk about, for instance, that they're -- agent force is now resolving in this trial. 90% -- more than 90% of patient increase. what he's saying is, we're finally there. he passes servicenow as being the company that harnesses a.i.
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the best. what happens is that -- >> pretty big statement you just made. >> yes, it is. the textbook company, they have a big spike in september, august and september, because of school. >> sure. >> so, typically, they hire, like, a huge number of people, and then they train them, and then they've got to figure out whether to lay them off or keep them, but 90% of the inquiries for the textbooks are solved by the bot. you don't know the bot. the bot is smarter than you. >> they don't need to hire those people anymore. >> why use microsoft copilot, why use microsoft, why give the order to microsoft? give it to marc. he will solve the problems. and that was major. it was the first time i heard, your gross margins are going to go up if you hire us. people say, salesforce's so expensive. >> speaking of gross margz at salesforce, of course, i can remember when the big battle was -- >> did you see 200 bips? >> between the activists and marc, and he micommitted to gro
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margins and they're going up. >> he had two things to say. one is that he satisfied everything the activists wanted and more. and he feels great about that, and the numbers did accelerate from the previous quarter. but the second is that the -- he can, for a hospital, for instance, for a hotel instance, bookings instance, for what i would regard -- for textbooks but lots of other companies, what he's done is say, listen, we now have it. like he's looking for walgreens to get -- walgreens is a little challenged, financially, but walgreens, cvs -- >> we talked about walgreens yesterday. >> you have to understand that the use cases, you can have so much gross margin gain. >> what did he have to say about that comments from klarna, that private company we highlighted yesterday? >> i'm not going to dig -- i'm just going to quote him. >> let's take a listen. >> my colleague, david faber, who appreciates your work greatly, was talking about klarna, which is a very good company. >> i love david, by the way.
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>> who doesn't? belle loves him, but that happens to be his mother. we were talking about klarna, and klarna is now cutting off salesforce, they don't need salesforce, they're trying to figure out exactly what to do with a.i. to me, that seemed like, i'd like to know more. let's put it that way. what to do with a.i. may mean using salesforce to do better with it. >> well, i think what customers are doing is transforming, changing how they use information technology. that's a great story. in fact, you probably saw on linkedin, jim, that klarna just posted how they're using slack to deliver a whole operating system to run their company in a whole new way using our new artificial intelligence capability that is manifested through slack. >> well, okay, so, other than the fact that you guys -- >> lot of love. goes both ways, yeah. >> i went to marc, and i said, listen, i need answers on klarna. and then he came back and said, look, they use slack. something like 80% of fortune 100 uses slack now. i think that slack has become something that a lot of people
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felt was an albatross that's now pretty popular. but what i like about this call is, again, i think that we have had a series of people talk about how you have to have a.i., and then suddenly, we have a person who has a way to be able to use a.i. that will help the companies save you a huge amount of money versus the -- that he's very disappointed with the huge amount of money that is wasted hiring microsoft. >> okay. >> you know, it's a fairly interesting -- microsoft has been taking all the heat, and crowdstrike. >> that's a separate story. >> definitely. >> i do want to come back to something i talk about occasionally, doesn't seem to be something that is forefront for most investors, which is the difference between gap and nongap, between adjusted and nonadjusted, so to speak. for example, i'll mention nvidia. >> affirm? >> i'm going to mention nvidia first. hardly any difference between their gap and nongap, which, quality of earnings -- let me finish -- noncash compensation
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is very small. i think it's four cents a share. salesforce, i believe, gap is expected to be only 60% of joogsed eps. >> that's why when we thought that the buyback -- >> huge noncap company, noncomp. noncash compensation. excuse me. >> i like amy weaver. retiring cfo. i obviously like marc, and -- but they have paid people, and they got hit by that. colette kress, the cfo of nvidia, is a little like luca. don't mess with her. she's going to -- you're going to get a real number from her. >> does that matter to you? >> yes, it does. >> goes back to multiples and things of that nature? >> i feel like i can very -- i think i can pay 25 times earnings, which is the procter & gamble multiple, on nvidia. i don't know whether i should pay a little bit less than that. salesforce has got the momentum. and you know how much people love the momentum and the growth model.
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>> they love momentum. >> last night was one of the most exciting nights we've ever had because we had a major disappointment, allegedly, in nvidia, that wasn't. simultaneously, with a conference call from marc benioff, which was incredibly bullish, and then a crowdstrike call for -- where they had that nasty problem, where they talked about how the fourth quarter is bad and then i have -- you know, maybe i've talked incentives, and then okta, blowing up, which is cybersecurity too. you didn't see that when it came to crowdstrike. they had a lot of orders. but i just say they were coming fast and curfurious last night,d people were trying to keep track. last night was an end of august swivel head. >> it was quite something. there's crowdstrike as well. typically, we take a break now, but maybe we're just going to keep going. >> george kurtz, i think it was a monumental feat that had so little lost business, but he did then say, look, later on, we may have to have some incentives. but i think a lot of people felt that crowdstrike was going to
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lose a lot of business. it is not. >> and he's going to be joining you tonight on "mad money." >> got to get him on. >> okay. >> now, david, where do you want to mention dollar general? >> next, next. we're going to take the pulse of the consumer, jim. best buy, dollar general. >> well, the pulse is good. one place has no pulse and the other has hypertension.
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the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. gina costa... looking simply stunning... what's this? she's opening her fidelity app....
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apparel down, and then we get to the guidance, which is why the stock is, oh my, wow, a quarter of its value being cut off. >> well, okay, so, let's either talk about the disappointment that they see and the hard luck of the consumer, we know the consumer's got stretched by inflation, or doug mcmillon. david, walmart has become a driving force where people who -- of lower income recognize that the prices have come down and feel like they're getting the everyday low price that sam walton created. and that return to sam walton's roots, which is stellar, what doug mcmillon is doing, is just rocking everybody, except for costco. >> what do you do if you're at dollar general? as you put it, you haven't previously? >> well, what does he have to do? he has to come up with a loss leader the way sam walton used to do. they get people in. all the categories that you said are weak are where all the gross margin is. i cannot -- now, look, can this
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bounce? he's actually a loved guy, okay? but if you look at the three-year, david, this has been a loser and the reason it's a loser is nothing to do with them. walmart changed. walmart decided to go after with a couple of $5 and under products, david. meanwhile, dollar general's products go up, walmart's products go down. the walmart stores are fantastic. they started to incentivize managers to be able to get it right for the areas they're in. i just -- it's a clinic, walmart. and so is the stock price, as is costco. >> new highs on walmart. the guidance, let me just give people the guidance on dollar general. same-store sales guidance. >> that's very big. >> and fiscal year, 24 eps, now 550 to 620 versus 680 to 755. so, off a stock price -- >> this is an elongated earnings season and that is one of the
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biggest misses. that's what happened. used to have a reputation for never missing and that's no longer the case. dollar tree has a better record now, but i think that people have not been -- the snobs on wall street have to go to several walmarts to see the pricing, and they will be blown away. i mean, when we go to -- my daughter's a baker. if you want a cheap product to make it so you can make cookies with a gross margin, you have no choice. you have to go to walmart. it's quite extraordinary. >> all right. we're going to cover best buy, of course, earnings of which are sending that stock higher and so many other earnings movers this morning. >> how about affirm? >> we'll talk affirm. listen and follow the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast. >> i love david.
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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. you just saw dollar general tumbling in the premarket. very different story for best buy, that rallying after the retailer raised profit guidance, posting quarterly results that also were above street consensus. revenues, $9.29 billion versus estimates of $9.24 billion and
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beat on eps as well. as we look to the back half of the year, we expect to see our industry show increasing stabilization, is the commentary. >> it's a big position for my travel trust. we happen to think the world of corie barry. she's well ahead of where we thought she would be. what i think was most significant, and we talk about this a lot on conference calls, the cadence. which means, how did you do during the quarter? minus two in may. minus four in june. flat in july. august, continuing flat. that's why they can lift their full-year guidance, which really matters. they're talking about innovation driving inflection. obviously, they don't even have the right pcs yet, the a.i. pc. they're getting it, and i just think that the $500 million buyback, coupled with the fact that there's a tremendous short position, tremendous, is going to cause a really -- a squeeze. it's a squeeze, right? do we buy after the squeeze? you bet.
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>> great. we're going to get the opening bell, of course, and very soon after, check some of the biggest movers. here at the big board, commercial bank is celebrating its 25th anniversary. at the nasdaq, internet service provider cogent communications. i'll go anywhere you want, jim. >> apple is a very big company, obviously. there's a great morgan stanley piece today called "it's glow time," which is actually what they call the event. it starts -- it's 1:00 p.m. eastern, 10:00 a.m. pacific on monday, september 9, and it's a very strong statement. bank of america, number one a.i. david, it's so great to have the best a.i. and not have to pay for it. >> yeah. that's -- you've made that point >> that's why apple is such a winner. look, i own it, don't trade it. same thing for nvidia, frankly. >> there's also the story out of japan that apple orders are -- >> surging. >> up over 10%.
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orders, 10% more iphones than last year. >> we had mike sievert on. do you remember the sievert interview? that was the signal to buy apple. he said, we'll be competitive with whatever -- >> he did. he didn't say, we're going to back off or we're expecting -- yeah. he was, like, whatever they do, we'll do in terms of -- >> doesn't seem that way. >> in terms of, this is the carriers, subsidizing to the extent that they have to for new phones. >> plus, when you're on the apple call, you realize what they're trying to do is create a new narrative of these countries that have 200 million people that people don't understand are populated and ready to buy apple, and they buy the used apple, then they take the service, so you have service fee much higher than people think. service gross margins are incredible. i continue to believe that apple is one of the best stories out there, even though i know the pe multiple, the price earnings multiple, is a little higher than what most of the people are used to. they're not used to that. >> we had the ubiquitous dan ives with us a couple days ago
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when he was talking apple. since then, i'm sure he's talked salesforce and nvidia, because basically, two-thirds of the world is covered by water, and the rest is covered by dan ives. >> i thought it was 3/5. >> maybe it is. he was talking a big game as well about suppliers and channel checks. >> talking a big game? >> he was. >> he had a pink jacket on. >> there is this alternate view amongst, i think, a small group, but nonetheless, who say, you know what, as things move to the device, as a.i. computing moves to the device in a way, will you need apps at all anymore? therefore, is apple going to lose control of its ecosystem to some extent? >> i think there's a -- on the enterprise, yes, but apple's not an enterprise play. >> for the individual, it's still going to be about going. >> yes, absolutely. i just think, without a doubt. i'm all in on that. it's just not enterprise software. i wish it were. but apple's fine, and the new
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product, the fact is it trades on happndset units. doesn't trade on watch or ipad. now, it's becoming to trade -- now it's at the $100 billion service revenue. remember when it used to be a little bigger than bread box? i said, it's no the larger than northwestern life, and you said, are you going over the fortune 500, trying to pin us down? i said, yes, i'm picking you. >> as we pointed out many times, they've got a margin there that's recurring revenue, and it's a large number. and so, you pay a higher multiple for that recurring. >> there's only one thing that can stop apple from going to $250. >> tell me. >> jonathan kanter, assistant attorney general for antitrust. they're looking at nvidia for having been really smarter than everybody else. they're looking at apple for producing a superior phone, and i think there's an article from the ftc, when lina khan was a little bit younger, talking about maybe there's a cocoa --
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is that a cocoa cartel? >> says these companies are being penalized somehow for their incredible success, for executing better than their competitors and their competitive set. the other argument would be -- and i know you also share this to a certain extent -- they are so involved in our lives in every way that the size and power of these platforms, so to speak, is unrivalled in terms of, really, corporate history or until -- you're a student of this history. maybe there's a period in the 1890s, but i don't know. >> there was one when teddy roosevelt was president and standard oil had 100% of the oil market, and they did that by driving everybody out, putting flash flood -- lowered prices when anyone came in, and they wrecked every single competitor. >> it's hard to prove the alternative, which would be, what would the world be like if these companies weren't as large and powerful? would more flowers bloom? >> it would be a poorer world. don't use a mao term. >> i did not use a mao term. >> it would be like the world of
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that slave holder who wrote to buchanan. i immediately bought the book that you mentioned on fort sumter. what a great call by you to get that book. and i was shocked to see slaveholders writing to the president, "it would change our lives if we had no slaves." >> you don't believe there's an argument to be made on the antitrust front, since you brought it up. >> innovation. if it's stifling, or if it's airlines overly merged, but remember, even here, i think that the ftc's wrong on the albertson's-safeway because that's just to combat costco and walmart. and amazon. by the way, amazon, no one's talking about amazon. $278 down to $270. amazon's just been a pitiful helpful giant. >> amazon is $172. >> i'm sorry. it's been just drifting, drifting, drifting down. i think that amazon is a buy here. let me tell you what i think is an uber buy and not uber, because it's going to lose tony
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west to harris if she gets the president. amd. saved, here's the story that i love. it's not like -- people were saying it's down in sympathy to the problems of nvidia. the problems of nvidia are positive for amd. blac blackwell's not ready, gives amd a chance to catch up. >> catch up? is that really a possibility for -- just to have something? no offense to amd. >> that's a good point, and i want to be very specific about this. it's going to take a while to catch up. >> nvidia has such a large lead. >> they do. they have the similar lead, i think, that intel had against amd at one point when jerry sanders was around. first of all, the redoubtable lisa su is going to be scrappy and a competitor. jensen's charging a great deal for his. amd comes under. but david, i don't want to talk about that for a second. i want to talk about traditional computing. >> traditional computing? >> yes. >> okay. >> pcs and servers. >> okay. >> how do you think they're going to do in the coming two
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years versus intel? david, intel's balance sheet is so hideous, may i suggest that i would rather have you look at the sun for ten seconds unaided. >> during an eclipse? >> a total eclipse of the sun. i've got to tell you, david, i don't like what i see in that balance sheet, and brookfield shouldn't and apollo shouldn't. >> interesting you say that. >> these private equities nar involved. >> if they complete the fabs, though, and own 49% each -- >> if, if. is this rudyard kipling? >> and the u.s. government is going to be their partner at intel. >> well, great. i'm just saying, competitively, amd is well ahead of intel now, and traditional computing, and then amd has offerings. look, gpus, they have a very successful gpu that's selling out. you can't get it. >> amd's market value is fourfold that of -- threefold, at least. >> think about where that company was when lisa su took
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over. i think that amd is the winner here. >> lisa su's reign as ceo is amazing in terms of what it's meant for shareholders. >> nothing short of amazing, and for charities, because she is a charitable person. >> by the way, nvidia shares are down less than 2%. just wanted to pouint that out. >> there was nothing wrong with nvidia, other than the fact that they couldn't get is yield right, and by the way, there was a debate about air-cooled versus water-cooled, which is a total side show. there's a debate about actual use cases, total side show. he gave you every use case. when i spoke to him, david, i said, will it cure cancer? he said, no, but here's what it will do. it will be able to go through databases and find out what are the genes of commonalities that say, melanoma. >> there's a hope or expectation, almost, when it comes to drug development and discovery, it will speed up that dramatically.
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>> he calls that tech bio. and what jensen said to me, it's still not the big -- the big drug companies have not adopted this yet. >> it's still early, jim, as we all know. >> you have multiple years ahead of you, and people just continue to think, like, a la the watch party, that it was an nfl draft, and you -- it was the giants and they drafted poorly. no. not true. i mean, true about the giants. i mean, not true about nvidia. >> the giants? yeah, well, they got one good offensive lineman a couple years ago, but man, it has not been great. >> they have a wide receiver. >> this year, naber is going to be good. >> i think, david, that the theory of last night is reality, which is that a.i. is going to begin. servicenow, then salesforce. obviously, meta. he's furiously -- mark zuckerberg -- meta a.i., which is his gpt, he's furiously trying to catch up to the others. but does he catch and pass it because he has all this data about social media? what are you looking at? i'm trying to get a quote on affirm because we haven't talked
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about affirm, and the loss was far better than had been anticipated. revenues -- and i know the stock is up. >> is credit card selling really, really well? the apple pay is doing very well for him. he made that point. the company is much closer to gap profitability than we thought. >> there it is. yep. >> i don't know, do we have the tape? i don't think we did tape it. we do have tape. maybe we can run some tape, >> sure, let's try. >> we have to adjust, and we've shown over the last year-plus that we know how to win in a relatively high-rate environment. as the rates are expected to come down, we'll certainly benefit over time. it will be a tailwind, but we know how to win under any rate scenario as i hope we have shown. >> so, that's it. >> there was max. >> compared that to mastercard and visa. they don't have any rate exposure, versus so many of the companies that do. capital one is the antithesis to them.
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this is one -- this is a low-fee versus high-fee, but capital one is brilliant on the high side, and they're brilliant on the low side. they have very few defaults. it's an exemplary situation. >> let's come to crowdstrike. we looked at the stock, but we haven't really discussed it much. you have, obviously, george joining you tonight on "mad money." crowd crowdstrike shares are up. the stock got crushed during that outage a number of weeks ago. revenues were a bit above estimates, as was eps, and you know, they said the outage reduced eps by two cents on the quarter, 30 million subscription revenue impacted, each of the remaining fiscal quarters as a result of incentives related to their customer commit package. >> the incentives were the bummer in the call. everything else was, like, i can't believe how well they maintained and got new contracts. george told me, look, he's proud of how he finished, given the circumstances. the focus is on hugging every customer as they work through
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the next few quarters, but as i said the other day, i called the bottom. i'm proud of that. i could be wrong. but i have george on tonight, and people should read the beginning of it, because it's textbook crisis management. textbook. really fabulous. >> i look forward to watching that interview tonight. jim, i want to hit u.s. steel because it's a situation that i have been following closely. i know you have been hearing from lorenzo at cleveland-cliffs with some frequency. >> yeah. >> there was some news overnight that we should get to. this is an interesting situation, in part because you've got a stock in the 30s where there's a $55 a shared by -- not bid, deal from nippon steel. japan's steel champion, so to speak. and this is what we got. they're going to add -- remember, i talked about this when we spoke about it a few days ago. >> of course. >> another $1.3 billion in incremental investment. they said we're going to -- $1.4 billion, but that's just for sort of keeping things going, so to speak. the $1.3 billion is a billion
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for the mon valley works, at least, to increase capacity for high-grade steel to make the plant more efficient, talking about something that was built in 1938, i think, or completed in '38. and then also in gary, indiana, another $300 million. that's a $1.3 billion investment, the idea being for nippon to say, hey, we're here for the long-term. we're putting money into these facilities to show we expect them to operate for many, many years to come. and therefore, u.s. steelworkers, don't you think that that's kind of commitment you would want to sign on to? immediate response from u.s. steelworkers in a letter in which they basically say, you can't trust what they're saying. >> close one usw operation after another. >> and nippon steel trying to hide behind its north american shell company, wants to shield itself from contractual obligations through our retirees and communities. it's just more of what we've seen all along, words, no real
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change. >> david, president biden and vice president harris are descending on pittsburgh on monday, labor day. do you think they're going to speak positively about this deal? absolutely not. >> the question becomes, i mean, because cleveland-cliffs, obviously, which was the cover bid, they were second in the bidding for this, has been after it all along. >> and they will prevail. >> they are closely aligned with the unions. they're not in a position -- this is an area where investors disagree to a certain extent with lorenzo, the man who runs cleveland-cliffs, the outspoken member who told me the other day via text that i was riding the wrong horse. i don't know what that means. i said, i never rode horses, i'm from queens. >> don't you think that belmont raceway -- >> not far. not far. beautiful. i actually went to the belmont stakes a couple times. cliffs has repurchased its own stock at $18.79 a share. it's spending $2.3 billion of cash to buy stelco at a
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significant premium. it will be 2.6 times levered after the completion of the acquisition. this has a $6 billion market cap. how are they going to be in a position to buy u.s. steel? if you say no to nippon, what happens to these underinvested plants and can you rely on cleveland to complete a purchase where they're going to put more money in? he would say yes, but there are others who say no. >> they do need a cessation in the dumping of steel in this country via mexico. >> and they even say the japanese are still also dumping, that i claim. >> they need whatever person at the white house to crack down on the smuggle, so to speak. >> i would only end with section 5.2 c, page 59 of the merger agreement, which does outline restrictions on cleveland-cliffs' behavior through the pendency of the transaction and there is language that would seem to make it very difficult for them to do an acquisition while they were in the midst of buying stelco.
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>> i think this is going to take a while. >> not to mention antitrust. they would have 100% of blast furnace production in the u.s., so there's an antitrust question too. >> you're right. and remember, this is an ftc that is challenging the -- >> why is the union -- by the way, i called dave mccaul, who runs the usw, he hasn't returned the call. i look forward to speaking to him, i would love to bring him on to understand fully the union's complete opposition to this deal, even though they seem to be awaiting more -- >> the union company. >> -- the idea of more money. interesting deal from a stock market perspective but also from a political one as jim mentions, and pennsylvania, as all know, is a swing state. let's quickly get to five below, because i'm told that there's something we're talking about there. >> i have always had a contentious relationship with five below under mr. joel
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anderson, because i felt they were going to screw up because they kept putting stores up regardless -- not irregardless -- but regardless of what the company was doing. maybe we listen to the challenge that i offered joel anderson before he was -- before he left. >> okay. >> do you feel confident that you should stick by your goal of 3,500 stores by 2030 if right now the growth may have been so fast that you didn't realize that you had this kind of theft problem as bad as it was? >> yeah, it's a fair challenge. the topline is not our problem right now, jim. and in fact, you would argue that if we get shrink back under control to pre-pandemic levels, you'll even see more growth on that. but we're really excited about the pipeline. we announced yesterday we're going to open between 225 to 235 stores this year. our pipeline for next year is almost full as well. so, there's a lot of demand for
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five below stores. >> that was just hubris. and you talk about a stock being at $200. that's just hubris. you can't do that. starbucks did that too. anybody that does that -- dutch bros, i think, is flirting with that kind of overexpansion. the only company i've ever seen do expansion that works seamlessly is chipotle and they have this chicken honey dish that i hope to have for lunch. when you do what five below did, it's imperative upon us an journalists to question whether that isn't an ill-advised strategy. anderson's gone. the company hasn't been able to recover from the overexpansion. by the way, cvs overexpanded. you know who hasn't overexpanded? amazon prime. >> yeah. they got an awful lot of trucks, though, don't they? >> oh my. if they can package all those through a.i. -- >> think about how many amazon trucks you see on the highway versus fiver y years ago. >> i love you, david. >> you love me? thank you. i love you too, jim. and we lovem marc benioff as
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well, why not? he's a big man a lot to love. let's check out how treasurys are faring this morning. there they are. 3.875% and 4.16% on the 30-year. we're back right now. hi, i'm eileen. i live in vancouver, washington and i write mystery novels. as i was writing, i found that i just wasn't sharp and that doesn't work when you're writing a mystery and i knew i needed to do something so i started taking prevagen. i realized that i was much more clear, much sharper. i was remembering the details that i was supposed to. prevagen keeps my brain working right. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.
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♪ ♪ not unexpectedly, dollar general tops the laggards, and not often you will see a fairly large company lose quarter of its market value. dollar tree, not unexpectedly taking a hit as well. >> walmart. >> we talked about walgreens yesterday. new lows yet again. talk about a loss of mkeart value from the top. wow. up next, we have stock
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trading with jim.
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gina costa... looking simply stunning... what's this? she's opening her fidelity app.... to buy that stock... with no fees or commissions... because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. all right. we finally get to stock trading. >> yeah, we had salesforce and nvidia today, and tonight we have dell.
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i think it will take shares away from super micro. it's a bounce back. there's a piece today, morgan stanley, saying they just learned shipments would be lower based on the channel checks, and the way you install blackwell, blackwell was a little late. i do think they took some from super micro. at this price, 111, down from 179, bet against one of the most charitable and scrappy guys in the world. >> yeah, looking at notes about it. focus on dell's gi margins, and a 10% -- >> yeah, if they still share, who cares. and now, some shares that cooled
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a tad is salesforce. >> who do you have on the show tonight? >> richard dickson. >> yeah, the focus for tonight is the banana republic, which is extraordinary. >> really? >> yeah, i think this is a very inexpensive stock. >> you did a good job today. don't feel bad. he's very hard on himself. more reaction on nvidia shares, down on the posted earnings, but not much.
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it's worth. visit coventrydirect.com to find out if your policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of
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sq squawk on the "squawk on the street." you can see we are up across the board. >> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are some of the big movers we are watching this morning. we have nvidia front and center for shares under pressure right now by 2%, and the chipmaker's earnings and guidance failing to meet the most loftiest expectation. salesforce is in the green but gave up bigger gains from earlier this morning. still up by 1 four tenths of a percent. and then raising full year guidance up for best buy, and dollar general is going the other way, the stock is tanking,
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and good to see you in the flesh. >> great to be here. and diana, hi. >> pending home sales dropped 5.5%. that's a big miss. these numbers are based on signed contracts during the month, so the best indicator of how buyers are reacting took current mortgage rates and falling below 7% for the first time since march, and went to 6.7% that should have brought buyers in but didn't and they blamed it on affordability challenges and some degree of wait and see related to the
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presidential election, and i think it was the wait and see on interest rates. the south is where we see the most new home construction. we know the builders are taking advantage over the existing home market because they are able to buy down the interest rates. >> thank you. invada shares, they are lower, and the company beat on all metrics but continued concern around perhaps gross march skwreup, at least, some of the delays of blackwell. good to have you here, deirdre, and just to have you in general but because you focus on this. >> i think you nailed it. i was not here for the watch party, by the way, but got here just in time the next day to break it down. an important company for all the
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gen ai things happening. i would note that around 75 gross margins is better than most of the semiconductors out there, still. there's a debate between roi, return on investment, and the mega caps, and there's a good note from morgan stanley about a week ago that basically asked, is this as good as it gets? and it is good. it's hard to find fault in those results, just maybe around the edges but especially in silicon valley people are looking even further out. are we going to see the investment pay off and see material contribution from gen ai. >> some make the case at some point the gen ai models will take in all the data available in all the world, and maybe nvidia is next and that will take a long time. at some point you may not need
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as much computing power, and i don't know when that is and when you want cash flow back from that point. >> does people look at the top line and bottom number or is it the margin, and the goldman note says 75.7% and the guidance reiterated that amid a 70% range going ahead, and it's like they can maintain the margin, and surely they don't expect them to maintain indefinitely, or they do? >> well, they are looking at the tick down or certain basis points in terms of the margin, and in tech they are looking at the long-term story. what i didn't hear was consumer adoption, and this is the big platform shift when you are off to the races and it changes our habits, what we have been talking about for so long but have not seen.
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chatgpt, but since then we have not seen this killer app. >> it's what the new iphone iterations will look like and the use of ai and how they are congregating around the new use cases. >> and i think it's not fully appreciated yet, but apple, what they do or don't do will get people to sit up. >> i just wonder when somebody else will be able to make a chip almost as good for a fraction of the cost, and the 75% margin will come down at some point. >> they can't make a chip but an ecosystem. that's what that the challenge is. we will talk to one of those companies later on. for now, let's get the latest street commentary. seema mody. >> raising the price target,
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writing while blackwell shipments are pushed out by two months we do not believe it has an impact on the overall 2024/2025. and b of a with a raise advising investors to ignore the quarterly knows. and wells fargo saying it's hard to find negatives in the results. the average price target for nvidia is 3.8%. barkley's tom o'malley is sticking with the whole rating and he think it's a change in narrative than what he says is guidance. when nvidia's cfo answered the questions on the earnings call on gross margins likely going
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into the 70s due to expenses tied to blackwell, that's when we saw the stock take a lower dip in the after-hours trade, and now shares are down about 3% right now. >> great rundown. i wonder what was the most takeaway from the call? there was the enterprise piece of it. also the demand they are looking from the hopper chips and then looking forward to blackwell, how do you parse all that? >> given the stock is up 160%, and everybody was expecting a clean report. on the call, investors wanted more granularity, and how many billions, exactly? that level of detail was not given. hopefully we will get something when jensen speaks in september. i also thought what was interesting is jensen's comp continues to increase, and
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because of that they need to spend more money on creating a much more powerful chip. >> and because of that there's more demand for hopper. thank you. >> and we will talk to piper sandler, and harsh joins us now. it's hard to pick apart this quarter. anything, really, you know, disappointing, but when you look out to '25 and '26, do you think this will be sustainable? >> thank you for having me on the show. we love the repositioning for nvidia and we are telling people to buy the stock on the open and hold for the long-term. this is one of those unique companies and it has an awesome growth rate from 2025 into 2026 and beyond.
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there are old data centers that could be for cpus. and in terms of the weakness, i was surprised. those are concerns around the gross margin, like you were discussing on the program before i came on. i don't think those are valid. you have to understand, nvidia is ramping four new products, and they are not ramping for cost efficiency just yet and they will do that in three to four quarters. we think the numbers will contend. nvidia has been able to grow 100% plus for several quarters now. it's hard to grow when you are 100 billion plus company 100% every year. the magnitude numbers will be better than anything you can
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find in the hardware or software space. >> when you look at ultimately it's a hardware company rather than a software company, albeit be amazing innovation that comes with it, and do you think the margin will come down at some point in long to short? >> i think what you have to understand is these chips have a lot of software in them. they have software drivers. they have other things that basically have to work with networking, and other software that runs on top of these chips. and then, of course, there's the system level approach which is nvidia's bundling the enterprise, and by the way, the software business is on track to hit $2 billion by the end of the year. they have other software businesses. i think a slight deterioration from 75% in the longer term, but not too much more. you have, you know, good
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companies in semiconductors doing 60 plus percent easily and even maybe a 65% plus gross margin. no reason why nvidia with the cutting edge with what the market needs and software and plug and play cannot maintain 70% plus long-term margins. >> harsh, there's some people that believe that the inference part of developing generative ai could change the stakes a little bit and there could be more competition in that space. what do you think, you need that in the training and do you think that nvidia is vulnerable at all to the competitors trying to fill that space? >> yeah, nvidia derives a little more than 40% of its number and right around that number inferencing today and that's from a lack of competition. there's another company, amd.
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inferencing, that will be 70% of the market, and nvidia is suited for both. they can do that just as well. amd brings better value proposition but are looking at the performance level, which they are trying to bring the level up. it will take them a year, year and a half to do that. >> right. thank you so much for being on with us today. nvidia shares down more than 3%. as we head to break, here's our roadmap for the rest of the hour. it's not just nvidia on the move today. shares of salesforce are rallying. what investors need to know. and then crowdstrike.
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"squawk on the street" back after this. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed.
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models and build their own models and retrain their own modeled. jim, we built that into our platform so you can build your model and train your model and fine-tune your model in our platform. you don't have to do that to some hyper scaler. >> that was salesforce ceo while he was speaking with jim cramer last night on "mad money" about the latest sales results, and salesforce also saying its finance chief is stepping down. salesforce has a growth problem. we are paying attention. you had great comments from clairena, and remember, too, salesforce business model, a per seat model, right? if it is making companies more
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efficient, they need less workers. >> how many salesforce's customers are tech savvy? >> that's something beenoff talked about on the call last night. he was saying all of these companies need to have their own internal generative ai solutions and he's hearing it's not working out well for them, so they need an agent force, an ai solution that salesforce can build that for them. not sure i buy that. there are legacy companies that may need that support, but i think everybody is looking to bring their ai inside and hire engineers and figure it out for themselves. >> when asked directly about that, he made the point, well there are a big user of slack, which, of course, is the salesforce offering as well
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having acquired that company. i would say as well for those that care, there's a big difference between gap and salesforce, and hardly with nvidia. that makes the adjusted different than the gap earnings. >> and i am thinking -- i have been away for a couple years, you only just now fully integrated. >> takes a while to close the deals. >> i know. i know. what i find that is interesting, going from last quarter to this quarter, you feel like there's a spin on one of the two. maybe it was more kitchen sinking last quarter and suggesting this quarter it was misleading, and the snapshot and the turn arounds, polar
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opposites. >> the revenue growth -- >> it's 8%. >> it's 8%. did you hear him slamming microsoft on the call. i thought that was fun. he's saying things people are thinking as well, and they could be thinking about his company, too. when is the roi going to justify the cap x. co-pilot is supposed to be the product. >> yeah, promises were made to many investors when they were fighting activist at salesforce, they have significantly increased their gross margin at the company as well. you see stock up about half a percent. oh, boy, look at this. bill ackman, wow. leslie, he's trying again? >> yeah, he said it again, he
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said in a press release they would re-evaluate the structure and noted they will report back once they are ready to launch a resized transaction. the issue at the core, at the time, is the close in funds, and that makes an ipo investment a risky one, and raising the initial target of 25 billion -- even a scaled down $2 billion was lingered by the questions as to whether interested investors should wait until the after market to purchase shares. and now it sounds like he's seeking to revive ipo. the ideas include giving the investors the ability to buy extra shares and fixed price warrants and would that give
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fund investors an opportunity to buy into the hedge fund, and that was an evaluation upwards of $10 billion. the discussions are fluid at this early age. pershing square declining to comment on this reporting, but definitely creativity -- he's not one to lack in creativity. >> he's relentless like so many others in that industry. you know, that dream of permanent capital dies hard. that said, i can remember -- remember when he was going to do the biggest smack of all-time and then came up with a spark. not sure what happened with that either? >> nothing has happened with the spark. that's what i am referring to in terms of creativity, the pattern of setting very high goals, and
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the largest backed of all-time, as you mentioned, and this was definitely the largest ipo of the year, and but, then, of course, there are roadblocks. in the case fplt sof the spak, idea was blocked through the revenue. and then the idea of ipos, how do you collect $25 billion or even $2 billion for something that is potentially has the high likelihood of trading down. >> quickly on that, did the london investment that he had not warn him off -- >> they have done a lot of buybacks in order to combat that. they have experienced with closed in funds trading at a
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discount and they were able to waive management fees. bill ackman has a following on social media and that would bring people into the fold here. lots more to come here on "squawk on the street." dstre ar are rallying on the back at 4%. we're back in just a couple minutes.
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strike reports its first results since the massive outage. steve kovach joins us with a closer look at the quarter and what was said. >> crowdstrike reversing what we saw last night. crowdstrike beat expectations in the top and bottom lines in the first report since the outage in july. we got the details on the financial impact it had on the company. crowdstrike said the outage caused a .2 negative impact to
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earnings per share. stock rose initially on the results but went negative after-hours when the ceo gave a meandering answer about how crowdstrike is looking at the integration into windows. as for the top and bottom line results, those were beats but do not include the outage impact. it's cutting its full year guidance likely because of the subpoen subscription revenue hit in the next few months. on september 10th, crowdstrike and other security companies will meet at redmond. i will send it back over to you. >> we know you will be watching, steve. a lot of backpedaling on that
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call for the outage they created. tonight on "mad money," do not miss george kurtz. we're back in three.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i am silvana henao with your cnbc update. the white house says president biden and president xi is expected to speak on the phone. it's the first trip by a national security adviser since 2016. brazil supreme court threatened to ban x within 24 hours on thursday night unless elon musk's social media platform has a new legally representative for the country. the company has until tonight to respond. musk closed the company's brazil
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office last week to protest orders that he suspends certain accounts. employers may be trying to reset worker pay levels. a "wall street journal" analysis from millions of job postings on zip reporter shows white-collar pay shrank yesterday and other blue-collar sectors are down as well. companies are moving job openings to lower cost cities or offering them as lower paying contractor roles. >> thank you. the appetite for the open ai boom goes further than nvidia. that would make openai one of the most powerful companies in the world. obviously we all need to be
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aware of it. >> yes. >> it's interesting to me in the sense of the nonprofit versus profit components of the openai ecosystem, and the investors are capped at a certain level. >> a high-level. >> yeah, there's a level in which you can no longer make money. >> yeah. >> you look at the company itself, and i would love to get your take, and the most important person in that company is on a leave of absence right now. >> he's not the only one. our own kate rooney matched that story as well. $100 billion on $300 billion, astronomical, and what is interesting is, i agree with you, that structure. the idea that we are not talking about a possible ipo for an open ai, and there's one guy in
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charge which is sam altman. >> who was fired and then going back and we never fully understood what was behind the concerns at the time the board had? >> the safe development of generative ai. it's such a massive topic. it's how anthropic built itself. sam altman won that battle, and a lot of the people sounding the alarm are now gone. meanwhile, this company keeps raising more and more money. i did think it was interesting that it was reported that microsoft could be part of the round because they are fighting for the same customers. >> they are competing -- they are obviously partners but microsoft is competing against them. >> yes, they both have a enterprise product. >> and microsoft will qua quadr
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their investment. >> there's a lot of creativity. the microsoft is getting all that talent from inflexion. a lot of interesting things going on in this creative space. >> do people think it's ultimately not for-profit but only 1% of it is. >> elon musk would take issue with that, and the complaint reads well. let's talk about the ai boom. tech investor, roger mcnamee joins us now. first up, do you -- what do you think of open ai? do you trust sam altman? >> not a bit. i saw the prior segment when you were talking about nvidia. to me, vidia, the company, it
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deserves to be in whatever hall of fame we have for the technology has, and they have gotten the gross margins on the back of generative ai and other important trends in silicon valley. i like to distinguish, as you know, david, between stocks and companies. right now the issue that nvidia faces, which i think is going to be the issue faced by everybody in generative ai, is that the promise of ai has gotten way out in front of the results, and as deirdre just pointed out, you know, sam altman would like to raise money, $100 billion valuation off of the billion dollar revenue, and that's fine, and somebody needs to ask the question of how long do we wait for enterprise applications to
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show productivity and value to customers? because at the moment, co-pilot seems to have difficulties in that regard. i think there's a big promise that companies like salesforce where they still have to deliver, and from an investor point of view, i think caution is going to be the watch word here because it doesn't matter how good the chips are at nvidia. if you are talking about replacing a trillion dollars worth of cloud services compute over the last few years, i mean, the s&p 500, the companies are mostly run by finance people. the chances they will write off $100s million of investment to buy a new chip, that could be wishful thinking? >> at the same time, you mentioned the words killer app. open ai is the only company that
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created a killer app in the age of ai, and do you think that in a world where there's only a few players, open ai could be one of them? >> well, deirdre, the point earlier was, though, this could be a killer app and the amount of money associated with it is not in the killer terrain, it's compelling, but, wow, the amount invested in the infrastructure to support the ai aps and the revenues are, what, a tiny fraction of that. >> you know the trough of dissolutionment, and then it picks up. people i talk to say you need to have more time here. >> deirdre, let's remember, historically the numbers were at
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most a tenth of what we are seeing in this category. the risk we are taking is much, much greater. if you are wrong by a year, investors are going to be very unhappy about that. >> although, unlike the '90s, which you and i well remember and all the capital went to all the companies that went out of business. here we have the cap being extended by the largest companies and they are not going out of business and not even coming close, and if you are right, they can do this and move on. >> i have no doubt that's true, david, but they have enormous stock market valuations that are at risk. i don't think the solvency of microsoft or google or amazon or apple is in doubt here. there's no question, whenever you are spending whatever microsoft is spending, investors are entitled to have an expectation of return on that
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commensurate with the risk they are taking, and it may be there. the evidence is not yet overwhelming that they solved the productivity problem in enterprises. in fact, the evidence is that they are not close, and if that's true and you have to wait another couple years, you know, people might legitimately get impatient. >> i had a question, and i know you have been a regular critic of social media companies in the past. i just wondered what you thought of the arrests of telegram's founder in france and whether that's a step too far against the messaging company? >> well, that remains to be seen. under french law they believe that he has actual responsibility for what takes place on the platform he has. that is, in fact, an interpretation we could apply here if we chose to. we have not done so.
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it may be that it doesn't stick in france either, but i do think that it's a signal of something that is going on very broadly around the world, which is that countries are getting very anxious and they are not comfortable with what is going on with social media and are taking action. >> roger, i started the interview by saying you trusted sam altman and you said no way. can you explain why? >> i think his incentive structure is miss aligned with the investors right now. he's able to raise money at very high valuations without having to demonstrate the progress that he promised a year or two ago, and, you know, as long as those incentives are misaligned you shouldn't trust him. there's a lot of history here. i don't know the man personally and he may be terrific, but as an investor i am looking at this thing going wow, it's interesting, because the promises of two years ago and one year ago have not come true. the only thing that has come
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true is he raised money with higher valuations. >> roger, always appreciate it. have a good, long weekend. >> thank you. deirdre, great job on the analysis earlier. >> thank you, roger. >> it is nice to have deirdre here. >> let's talk about gap because they reported earnings unexpectedly on their website this morning. they were expected to report after the bell and stocks halted. the ceo is going to still be on "mad money" tonight. it's halted, i believe. 54 is what they reported, and that does appear to be above what was expectations. >> yeah, shares were down 1% before it halted. they were up 6% before it halted. >> okay. we will take qckre a aui baknd we will take qckre a aui baknd be right back.
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we're back on "squawk on the street." and the fed said it may be time to move on rate cuts. he said, quote, i don't want to be in a situation where we cut and then have to raise rates again. that would be a very bad outcome. so are we at that turning rate now. joining us, raj. thank you for joining us. do you think we are at that turning point for the u.s. and do you think it will be 100
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basis point cuts by the end of the year? >> i think we are at the turning point and i think the labor market report next month will give us a little more certainty, which is what the fed is waiting for. i think that we will start seeing cuts in september. 100 basis points? i think it depends on how severe the slowdown is. right now it seems like the beginning of the slowdown, and i think the fed will want to have more of of a sense that this is a more serious slowdown for it to start cutting at the rates that the market anticipates. certainly a 25 basis cut in september seems to be what it will be unless the labor report in september is very strong. >> you had a great op-ed in the
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ft, and with the op ep in mind, stepping back a bit, there has not been an extended session in the u.s. since the 2008 period. is that something that worries you as if there's something building up to come that we might not be pricing in yet? >> well, certainly when you look at the markets, the visible parts of the markets don't seem over leveraged. you are seeing housing, for example, you know, and a lot of people in long-term mortgages, you are seeing household debt come down since the global financial crisis. corporate also, with a few exceptions, is reasonable. typically what happens with a recession or financial turmoil is leverage gets cleaned out. we saw that with the global
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financial crisis and it has been 16 years since that happened. the question is how much leverage is there that is hidden? we saw an example of that in march 2023 when we found the median-sized banks were over leveraged with deposits that had built-upqe. and it took the fed to come in with all guns blazing as well as the treasury to implicitly ensure all banks on insured deposits to calm that down. there were 22 bank runs according to a fed report at that time. so, the question is, how much other places -- how many other places has leverage built up and what do we need to fix that. i certainly think that is something to be concerned about at this point. >> right. and what would have to happen, what would be a potential catalyst to uncover that hidden leverage? is it a global crisis? is there anything on the landscape right now that worries you? >> well, i think if you look at risks around the world,
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certainly the wars and how they progress is an important concern, but probably the biggest concern in front of the public is what happens with the u.s. presidential election. both the election itself is smooth, are the results accepted but also beyond that, the policies of the new administration, clearly they differ considerably across the two candidates. and what gets implemented could cause a lot of turmoil. >> when you look at the debt issuance to come for the u.s., is it something that concerns you? and with it, the recent weakening in the u.s. dollar, do you think it's a short-term interest rate differential factor or are we about to enter fresh, extended period of steadily weakening u.s. dollar? >> well, i think often -- first, it's a fool's game to predict the direction of currency, but to the extent you can, i think it goes with economics print. the u.s. is still a very strong
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economy with other developed countries. yes, there would be blips up and down in the dollar, but to see steady weakness would depend on a much weaker economy than the u.s. has right now. that said, i think looking forward, i think the fed is going to be -- have to be comfortable with the pace of disinflation. i think the fed cutting rates has allowed the dollar -- the prospect of fed cutting rates, you know, maybe a little faster than even, say, the uk has allowed the dollar to depreciate a little relative to the uk, but i don't think this is a longer term sort of bellwether dollar weakness. >> thanks so much for joining us. great to see. >> thank you. as we head to break, the read on retail, the dollar down 16% at the moment. best buy posting some nice gains, up 6 -- excuse me, dollar
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general is down more than 25%. best buy showing earnings, showing sales decline has stabilized. we'll be right back. we'll be right back. stay with use skin tag remover, clinically proven to remove skin tags safely in as little as one treatment.
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the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. . clinically proven to r"soulmates."ags soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. take a look at shares of
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apple. rallying quite sharply. up 2.75%. we're talking over $3.5 trillion market value yet again for the largest market cap company in the world. perhaps one reason, a story in the nikkei that apple is ordering over 10% more iphones than last year. at least, deirdre, seems to be one of the reasons why. you had positive commentary as well from morgan stanley. >> we're looking ahead to the big event, when the iphone is unveiled. everything they showed us at wwd is impressive but we're not going to get all that for some time. i wonder if there's some air to come out of that. i'm looking at the valuations, the pe valuations of the big mega cap and apple is below 30. you have google down below 20, even though it's come out with a gen a.i. powered phone. >> apple's b ratio relative to
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its growth makes nvidia look cheap. >> nvidia looks cheap by a lot of measures. >> that's always been the case. if we are going to get this supercycle, if you are going to upgrade your phone, i have a 15, so i don't need to upgrade, but i don't know what you have, to get the a.i. features you have to -- >> i have an se. >> oh. >> that's the sky issued one. low budget in uk. >> you need to upgrade. >> pretty much session highs, by the way, with apple up at session highs. >> that's what i do to end the show. >> do you? >> yes. you have another hour coming. i get to say, stay tuned for wilf and deirdre and a lot more wilf and deirdre and a lot more market coverage. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi!
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humana. a more human way to healthcare. good thursday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm deirdre frost with deirdre bosa live from the floor of the new york stock exchange. the bond market puzzle, how the pace and timing of rate cuts could impact the yield curve. jeff sherman is with us. the under the radar chipmaker looking to

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