while iowa prepares for tomorrow's caucuses, the city of perry is also mourning the death of a principal who was wounded in a mass shooting at his school earlier this month. the family of dan marburger says he died this morning. according to authorities, marburger acted selflessly and put himself in harm's way when he was shot multiple times. his daughter says he tried to talk to the student shooter, which gave some students time to escape the cafeteria. marburger worked for the perry

school district for more than two decades. his wife wrote today, quote, he fought hard and gave us ten days that we will treasure forever. also killed in the shooting was 11-year-old amir joe live, a sixth grader. "the source" with kaitlan "the source" with kaitlan collins starts now. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com good evening. i'm kaitlan collins here in new york alongside abby phillip. welcome to our special coverage of the countdown to iowa. it is it. we are just hours away now from the nation's first nominating contest. the stakes may be high, but the temperature certainly is not. it is below zero in iowa right now on this final full day of campaigning for the republican presidential field. but even with donald trump's commanding lead in the latest poll out just last night, the 48% of sport from likely caucus-goers, he too is pushing hard for turnout.

>> we're up big in iowa, likewise, really up big. the higher we're up, the higher we go, the better a signal. we send a good signal to new hampshire, but the better signal we send in november that we're taking our country back. so, it's really important. but you've got to get out and vote. >> nikki haley and ron desantis, they're also delivering their closing messages to voters. how they both perform tomorrow is the crucial question, with haley trying to make this a two-person race between herself and donald trump and desantis, of course, looking at a very tough road ahead and maybe some tough decisions to make if, in fact, he comes in third. >> it's been 11 months and it comes down to tomorrow. >> if you will join with us and caucus, full bring friends and family with you when you do it, i promise you our best days are yet to come. >> tomorrow's going to be fun

for us. i like being underestimated. i like being the underdog. i think that that's better. >> kaitlan, if history is any indicator, anything can happen in iowa, especially if the freezing weather also plays a huge role in these last 24 hours. there's new last-minute uncertainty about who is actually going to show up tomorrow in these frigid temperatures. how many of them and how they're going even get there. we have a team coverage on this election eve. dana bash is in des moines following all the campaigns. john king is over at the magic wall for us crunching those numbers. chad myers is in the cnn weather center. and dana, you were out in the elements. that's a nice way of putting the bone-chilling cold today. but you were with several of the candidates, including nikki haley. what's she saying right now, as trump has now turned up the heat on her in these last 24 hours? >> well, abby, i was at that

trump event, where he went after nikki haley. he did a lot of things in that event, which i'm sure you'll talk about throughout the hour. but one of the things that he did was really step up what he was saying about her. and part of his attack was that she's just not tough enough to be president of the united states. i did catch up with her shortly after in aims, iowa, and asked her about that. >> donald trump, among other things, says that you're not tough enough to be president. how do you interpret that? >> i find it comical because when i was at the u.n. he always used to tell people, don't mess with her, she's tough. >> no one ever questions by toughness. he's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble. now he knows this is becoming a two-person race. i know that he knows the truth. it doesn't bother me at all. >> and abby, another, sort of,

event that happened that, sort of, rippled around these campaigns was the endorsement that donald trump got from marco rubio, his former opponent in 2016, and the governor -- excuse me, the senator of florida, despite the fact that the governor is also in the race. and i should add that nikki haley endorsed marco rubio back in 2016. i was actually there at that event. i asked her about that, about her reaction to it. and she brushed it off and said that the endorsements that she's looking for are those from the voters, abby. >> and of course marco rubio from the home state of ron desantis as well. speaking of those voters, what are you hearing from them tonight on this election eve? >> you know, there are still some undiecided voters, believe it or not. and then there's some who are completely and totally intent on voting for those who they went

to see. that is especially true, abby, at the trump event that i was at. i mean, you know. you covered donald trump. i covered donald trump in the past. and we saw firsthand the fervor with which people support him. and that is still very, very much at play here. i talked to somebody at his event who is going to be a caucus captain tomorrow night. and listen to the way she described why she supports donald trump. >> is there anything that he could do that would make you walk away from him as a supporter? >> i would not have any idea what possibly he could do to make me walk away. no. i mean, if he, you know, did something bad. but i have not seen anything bad, you know? so, he's -- the lord's with him.

the lord's carrying him through this journey. >> so, you see that, abby. you hear that, and i heard versions of that over and over again when it came to the people who are going to go out and caucus for donald trump. and, you know, in 2016, i was here. he lost slightly to ted cruz. and before the caucuses, he was ahead in the polls. one of the big differences between then and now is that the trump campaign had virtually no organization, which really matters here in iowa, back then. now they do. they've been much more aggressive. i talked to another voter who said that in 2016, she just went and caucused for trump because she liked him. she didn't hear from anybody in the campaign. this time around, she's hearing from the campaign or people associated with the trump campaign over and over again. and he certainly needs that, given where he is in the polls,

even though he's ahead. they're concerned, he personally is concerned, i'm told, about complacency. and of course he's concerned about the weather. abby? >> and of course what you just heard from that voter is backed up by that latest polling we got over the weekend about the enthusiasm. dana bash, thank you very much for all of that. and tonight we also have cnn anchor and chief national correspondent john king at the magic wall, where he lives these days. john, i think a big question, as we are getting these new poll numbers in, is where things do stand as we're on the eve of the iowa caucuses. >> this is my tenth presidential campaigns, covered a lot of iowa caucuses. but the poll numbers, as you've been talking about, they're pretty overwhelming. let's bring up the poll and show it. forgive me for turning my back. if you go back through the iowa poll, a reliable poll in the state. former president trump was at 42%, up to 51, at 48% right now. nikki haley has gone from 6 up to 20. so, she could say, yes, at least over the last five months i'm

going up. desantis, a flat line, maybe down a little bit, 19, down to 16% now. yes. you know, ted cruz was behind and beat donald trump in 2016. yes, rick santorum was behind and passed mitt romney in 2012, but the lead was nothing like that. it was not 28 points. that is not insurmountable. nothing is insurmountable in politics. but it would shock the world if somehow trump didn't win. one interesting point, though, you heard dana there, you were talking about how donald trump is saying, don't be complacent, people, get out and vote. i think he said, go out and vote even if you're sick. i need you to go vote. they were so confident. the haley movement at the end, it's no dramatic, nowhere close to trump. but people who support haley have spent about $8 million since january. pro-desantis, about 6 million. trump, about 3.6 million. they entered the year thinking, we got this. and in the last couple of days, they're smart. they're well organized.

the president saying, don't get complacent. they're trying to tell people, please, the organization matters. if you're afraid to go out and drive yourself, we'll do it. can the other campaigns match that? 24 hours from now, we'll be filling this in. >> not just getting people on the road. that speaks to voter enthusiasm here. when you look at these numbers, john, what are you seeing about which candidate has the most enthusiastic supporters, because that could matter, if the weather is as bad as it's going to be, to motivate people to leave their warm, cozy homes, and get out and go to a high school gym to caucus. >> without a doubt. let me show you where people live in iowa. the larger the circle, that means the more population. here's the des moines area. that's the biggest area. the suburbs around it -- those are key to nikki haley by the way. if nikki haley is going to surprise us, it's going to come from the suburbs and close around the cities like dubuque, like iowa city. those people don't have to drive as far. small rural counties, some people have to drive 15, 20,

maybe more miles to get to their caucus site. do they do that in the snow? that is where organization will matter. as you noted, that's also where enthusiasm matters. look, i don't need to tell the two of you, kaitlan collins and abby phillip, a lot of time covering trump, lite of time at trump rallies, his people tend to be locked in. are you extremely or enthusiastic about your candidate. 88% of trump supporter, 62% of desantis supporters, only 39% for nikki haley. she has more independents, first-time caucus goers. that is has always been trump's trump card -- forgive the pun -- his people tend to be locked in. we'll see if that works on a very, very, very cold night tomorrow. >> john king, thank you for that. and as we mentioned, brutally cold weather will be the big wildcard for turnout tomorrow in the caucuses. chad myers is in the severe weather center tracking the forecast. chad, it has been -- i can't

even imagine the cold that's happening in iowa. what more can iowans expect tomorrow? >> again tonight a very cold night. and it does not get above freezing and does not get above zero for the entire state tomorrow. that means pipes could be breaking. that means other things are going to be going around at homes around iowa. we talk about this all the time about trying to keep your pipes moving. make sure that under the cabinet the cabinet doors are open so that the heat can go under the sink. even right now, the air temperature, the thermometer, is 13 degrees below zero in des moines, same with oak bow ji, same with sue city. this is the area that has all the snow. at least it's not blowing around. if there's one good thing, there's not going to be snow and there's not going to be a blizzard out there. in 2004, there was a big drop in the population density that went to these polls. and it was 16. tomorrow the high is going to be minus 4, 20 degrees colder than

what we know there was a distinct problem with populations going to the polls. you say, wait, no, it's just iowa. it's just cold all the time. no. minus 4 is 30 degrees colder than you should be. so, this is cold on animals. this is cold on people. and in some places dangerous. fair banks, alaska, is going to be 9. des moines is minus 4. 13 degrees warmer in fair banks. something else we haven't really assessed is that so far, up to this date, we have had the warmes warmest winter on record in iowa. the animals aren't acclimated. people aren't acclimated. people are going, oh, if this is winter, i like it. all of a sudden you get smacked in the face with 13 degrees zero and a wind chill of minus 30, that's a big difference. you won't be ready. >> it's a no thank you for me. chad myers, thank you very much. let's bring in our panel, who's also warm inside with us and not in iowa. scott jennings, i've been

hearing from a lot of trump's campaign people, people around him, they are very worried about turnout tomorrow because they are concerned if there is not a huge turnout he's not going to have the resounding victory that they're looking for. what is the concern about what that could look like? >> an expectations game. look at the polling, he was 48 in "the des moines register" poll. cbs surveyed today, nationally he's at 69%. so, it's, sort of, unheard of, the idea that the party would nominate someone who's not at 69 nationally. but on monday night, if he comes in with a number that's way lower than what the polls are forecasting, that provides a narrative to nikki haley or ron desantis or whoever to say, look -- that keeps the ball bouncing for them in new hampshire and beyond. they've been trying to lower expectations. the biggest win in a caucus, 12.8%. they're going to spend anything above that number. the reality is i think they need to be 20-plus to keep up with

where the polling has set expectations. >> don't you think, though, that trump benefits the most in this kind of weather, given what the polls say about enthusiasm. look at these numbers. we were just talking with them with dana. 88% of iowa's voters who would support trump are very or extremely enthusiastic. nikki haley is down there at 39%, which is why ann seltzer was almost stunned by how her enthusiasm was so low but her support is second -- a modest second. >> there were a number of warning signs in that poll. once you get past the top line, which was good for her -- she had jumped into second place -- her favorable rating had declined. it was 2-1 in august. it was just about even in this poll, the enthusiasm number, that you mentioned. half her support are from democrats and independents. and it seems to me that to show up at a caucus and stittit therr

an hour or two and listen to republicans make speeches and cast a ballot with a wind chill of 40 degrees below zero outside seems like a stretch. 80% made up of republicans. there are a lot of things that would worry me if i were haley in this. we have two races going on here. it's trump versus expectations and haley versus desantis. and those are the two things that we're going to be watching tomorrow night. >> even though trump is spending a lot of time attacking nikki haley -- today alone he was saying that she's too liberal to lead republicans, that she has the same backers as president biden, talking about people who funded her campaign, claiming wro wrongly, i should note, she's -- >> against her in the final stretch. here's the problem i think donald trump could run into. and granted i think everyone here agrees he's going to win tomorrow night. but he has such a commanding lead that if it's freezing

outside, it's very easy to say other folks are going to show up. i think that may end up being a bigger measure than this question of intensity and enthusiasm in the poll. nikki haley, what's interesting in that poll, is many of the second choice people that are supporting nikki haley are actually joe biden. i almost wonder if voting for change for something other than donald trump, other than the status quo, could end up being a bigger motivator. >> yeah, that could be -- i'm sorry. >> no, no. i was just going to say donald trump has put a lot of energy in first-time caucus goers. this is when you really hope the infrastructure that they did build this year, unlike in 2016, actually pays off. you know first time voters, it usually takes about seven touches to get them to leave their house gorks to the polls, and vote. >> and it's usually 45 degrees outside. >> so you better hope the stack you have, the volunteers you have, are really going to be able to touch those folks and convince them to show up. if you're just looking for a first-time caucus goer, you

could love donald trump. negative 40 wind chill, i don't know what that feels like. i don't want to know. >> in this poll, he was winning 56% of first-time caucus goers. the next person was haley at 14, i think. so, he's doing pretty well with these first-time caucus goers. and that's been their focus this whole race, not people who are, sort of, uninitiated. they're going to -- trump voters who haven't participated in caucuses before and their operation has been focused on this for months. we'll see how it works in, you know, these ridiculous temperatures. >> i'll take the other side of this. i think they are not going to have trouble motivating these first-time people. we've seen people show up for trump rallies. you know. you were there. hot, cold, raining. that's just to show up and watch something. now -- now, with vindication at hand, it's their first chance to show up and do something. i think come hell or high water

they're going to show up. >> we have massive attendance at his rallies and often times voters were not registered and hadn't voted. they showed up for the trump show. they showed up to see the man. he's in iowa today. i assume he'll be there tomorrow. it's much more motivating if you get to see the man of donald trump than to actually deal with the caucus. >> one of the things he has done in this campaign, though, is -- i mean, trump may be, sort of, wackier than ever in some ways, but his organization is more rational than ever. they ran this race the way, you know, we would have, others would have. they had a theory of a case. they've been hammering at -- huh? >> i said that's a -- >> it is. i like good field operations, well conceived strategies. i mean, we'll see. i could be sitting here -- my chair could be sinking tomorrow night. >> but can we listen to that sound bite from trump today, where he was speaking about getting turnout, people going

out, doing it in these conditions no matter what the conditions are. listen to what he told supporters? >> you must go caucus tomorrow, the very first step. the first step. we've got to do it. we've got to do it big. you've got to get out. you can't sit home. if you're sick at a dog, you say, darling, i've got to make it. even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it, remember. if you're sick, if you're just so sick you can't -- darling, i don't think -- get up. get up. >> oh, boy. i mean, how selfish, right? but, you know, iowa voters know how important this is. they actually know all eyes are on them right now. and this is really a choice for the will of whether you want to get rid of donald trump and you don't. so, for all of those desantis and haley voters, they may have just as much emotion to show up and caucus for their folks as well. >> when i look inside the numbers of "the des moines register," i agree trump has the

best organization he has in three tries, but it's desantis. i would say his organization -- >> could push him into second. >> he could find a few points there you're not seeing show up in the polling. >> we will see if that's happening. we have lots more to discuss with our panel. one thing about tomorrow is certain is that voters are going to have to brave those freezing temperatures. the question is, will there be any surprises? the head of iowa's republican party is here with his predictions right after a quick break.

life threatening wind chills, exposure to frostbite potentially, and icy roads are just a few of the things that are facing iowans, as they are preparing to caucus tomorrow. as we have been warning, it is on track to be the coldest caucus night in history. but iowans are a tough bunch, as we all know. joining me now is one of them, jeff kaufman, chairman of the republican party of iowa, who i'm sure is keeping an eye or two on the weather. we know you're tough in iowa, but are you worried about the effect that this weather could have on turnout tomorrow? >> well, i mean, i don't know if we're going to have a record turnout. i mean, we had an environment in terms of the enthusiasm and the organizational abilities of

these campaigns. it looked like we were in an environment where we could shoot for that 186,000. i don't know that we'll get there. but i really do believe it's going to be robust. today was clear. the ice -- we're going to have another 24 hours for the snowplows to get out. doesn't look like we're going to have whiteout for blizzard. so, we're focused on the temperature. there will be multiple, multiple times when it's below zero in iowa. we're used to that. we're used to the precautions that you take. i honestly believe that we're going to have a robust turnout from. my perspective, i'm going to let the rnc know exactly what iowans did when it was temperatures and we're going to be first in the nation again. that's going to be one of my pieces of evidence that i'm hoping they won't let me down. >> we'll see about that. i do have a question about that about iowa when it comes. on the weather itself, kay henderson of radio iowa, obviously a veteran of the state, she notes in reporting tonight that only 28 counties --

28 counties only have one location to go and caucus. that could mean a long drive for those folks. i understand the super site was planned before we knew what the weather was going to look like. but is that a good idea? are you worried about people's safety? >> well, ultimately, that is the decision of each one of the county committees. as the republican party of iowa, we aggregate that data. the decisions whether you have a super site or multiple sites, which majority have multiple sites. we have one county on the missouri border that has, i believe, over 13 different sites. so, as long as there's not ice on those roads, iowans know those precautions. they know how to handle that. we're giving advice to all of our chairs, trying to make sure the lines are inside as they're moving through. obviously people can register at that particular site to be a republican. i feel comfortable with where we're going right now. and remember, this is -- this is

iowa winter. and in the context of that, this is not anything that these individuals haven't faced over and over and over again. >> how many first-time caucus goers are you hearing from? is it a bunch? >> yeah, it really is. you know, it's mostly anecdotal information. but i've actually been surprised. i'm neutral in this caucus. i'm bound by the republican party iowa constitution. i went to almost all the candidates' events. the most recent events -- i think now i've been to three events where they asked new caucus-goers to raise their hand. i've been amazed at how many raised their hand. they're enthusiastic. i talked to several of them after they left -- my job is obviously to reach out to them, make sure they know if they're a disgruntled democrat, if they're independent, or just republicans that have been hibernating for a

while, let them know there's a place for them in the party. my next role is to keep them. >> one thing that iowa is known for, it's known as the full grassly. it's going to all 99 counties in iowa. some presidential candidates try to do it. some don't even attempt it. ron desantis is one of those candidates who has done it. he talks about it a lot. he talks about the fact he has secured the endorsement of your state's governor here and has really put in the work on the ground. i wonder what it says about the value of retail campaigning in iowa if that doesn't pay off for him tomorrow. >> well, and going to the 99-county tour physically, that certainly shows iowans that you're not taking their votes for granted. at the same time, you're able to reach out to all 99 of those counties. if you go to one county and you're surrounded by four or five, you're going to reach the activists in those areas. it's not over until it's over. and tomorrow night we very welsey that the organizational

structure that's being put together with this. i'm sure, as you know, kaitlan, this caucus is just as much about organizational structure as it is a personally contest. i think you're going to see improved campaigns, especially from 2016. >> and you're not worried about any backlash if trump is the nominee because your state's governor has endorsed ron desantis here, something trump is very unhappy about. he doesn't let kim reynolds at any of his events. are you worried he might try to move iowa from being first? >> i don't think so. i mean, ultimately what matters -- i mean i don't want to speak for the past president of the united states and possibly future -- we'll see who wins the nomination. but i really think he's going to look at what the people of the state of iowa believe. and kim reynolds did set the tone. because she endorsed does not necessarily mean that all are not welcome here. and the party structure, those of us that are actually running

this caucus, have been pretty vigilantly neutral across the board. so, out of all the things i have to worry about, that's not one that i'm particularly concerned with. >> jeff kaufman, you have a lot going on over the next 24 hours. thanks for taking the time to join us tonight. >> thanks for your interest in iowa. >> of course. and on the eve of those subzero caucuses that are going to happen, there was another endorsement, a notable one, for nikki haley today. the question is, does it make a dent in what has been trump's so far domination in this race? we'll talk about that next.

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when you do, we'll send you this adorable love to the rescue blanket as a thank you. and a reminder of all the kids whose hero you are. each and every month. please call or go to loveshriners.org right away. ♪ nikki haley has picked up a big name republican endorsement from former maryland governor larry hogan. >> nikki haley's got all the momentum. and what this race valely all about is to try to nominate the strongest possible nominee for november. it's time for the party to get behind nikki haley. >> hogan, at one point, was considering a possible third party run to stop donald trump. and my next guest did enter this race last year and is now

supporting nikki haley. former congressman will heard joins me now. congressman, thanks for joining us. i wonder how much you think that endorsement from larry hogan means to nikki haley at this point. >> it's just one more example of the momentum that ambassador haley has been building for the last 11 months, the fact that you have the governor -- you know, chris sununu, governor of new hampshire, endorsing her. you have groups like americans for prosperity, who have an amazing ground game in multiple states across the country, is important. the fact that she's had so many small dollar donors in the last 30 days. this is just one more example of the momentum, and she's going to pick up delegates tomorrow in iowa and take that momentum into new hampshire, where she has a great shot of being able to shock folks. i think it was alyssa farah

griffin who was talking about how the motivation of some of these voters -- many voters are going to go in to the polls tomorrow in iowa and say, hey, do i want four more years of chaos? i'm concerned about the cost of health care for me, my aging parents, and for my children. i'm worried about a war in the middle east and europe, and who's the best person to elect to make sure that we have a strong america. and in my opinion, that's nikki haley. >> so, what do you think is a strong showing for nikki haley in iowa tomorrow? some of the other candidates have said that they believe they will win, including donald trump. and at one point ron desantis. does nikki haley believe that she can win? >> well, the team knows, pick up some delegates, right? donald trump has said he was going to win by 60 points. and then he said it was going to be by 50 points. now he's saying if he wins by 12, that's a success. if he gets under 40%, that's a

kink in the armor. so, this is about picking up momentum. the recent polling coming out and showing that nikki haley is surging in iowa. the fact that -- i think one of the biggest mistakes ron desantis made was going to all 99 counties because the more people learn about him, the less likely they are to vote about him. >> can we talk about that poll sng can we talk about that polling now? >> say that again. >> can we talk about that polling again, that "des moines register" poll showing haley supporters are, at best, only mildly enthusiastic about turning out for the caucuses tomorrow. that's really far below the others in this race, donald trump and ron desantis. how concerned are you about those numbers and whether people in this kind of weather will just decide to stay home?

so, first off to all the iowans going out to vote tomorrow, thank you for doing your civic duty in a tough environment. i was in the hindu kush mountains for a month at negative 20 below zero, and it was uncomfortable. what they're going into tomorrow is difficult. this enthusiasm gap that people are talking about, that number is really better to use in general elections against democrats and republicans. the fact that a voter may say, yeah, i don't want to go out in the cold, but they're still going to go out. i don't think this is a concern. ambassador haley and her team have built a good organization, and they've continued to grow. they've consistently grown in iowa. so, those numbers are not something i think are concerning. >> congressman will hurd, thank for joining us tonight. >> always a pleasure. and for the first time ever, there is a candidate on the ballot facing 91 criminal charges and awaiting four

trials. and some iowa voters actually say that a trump conviction would make them more likely to support him. the surprising new poll numbers we'll discuss next.

♪ a new number just in that is worth looking at. it is the latest iowa poll. it came out last night right before the caucuses. and it shows that a majority of likely republican iowa caucus goers, people who are going to be turning out tomorrow night, would not shy away from voting for donald trump in the general election, even if he were convicted. here's what the numbers found. 61% of likely republican caucus goers say that a potential conviction doesn't matter in determining their support for him. and david axelrod, i guess maybe it's not that surprising. i mean, we just heard from governor sununu of new hampshire saying he would vote for donald trump even if he's a convicted felon. what do you make of those numbers? >> i think that sununu is following the numbers. i think it's unfortunate that he is. but it's -- this is the prevailing view among republicans. i mean, everybody's got to get their arms around the fact that

donald trump has a very strong base in this party. and he has, as he often does, he's taken a bad story and he's turned it and he's turned these indictments into an emblem of his potency and the deviousness of the deep state. and a lot of the base has bought that. so, you know, he's -- this -- we've talked about this before. you know, we thought it was kryptonite. it's battery packs for him in the republican primary. when he gets into a general election, may be a different story. but these numbers don't shock me. >> i mean, 61% say it doesn't matter. 19% say it would make them more likely to support him. >> yes. >> yeah. >> that's more than the people who say it would make it less likely they would support him. we talk a lot about, you know, who's going to get the chris christie vote. but does it matter, i mean, if this is what the landscape is? >> think of it this way, the average voter is thinking about paying bills, sending kids to

college, paying mortgage, state of the economy. they look to elected leaders to give them guidance on a former president was indicted. how should i feel about that? i'm not going to read through an indictment. when every one of the top tier candidates running against trump said, it's a witch hunt, it's the system working against him, that signalled to voters this isn't something legitimate that i need to be worried about. with the exceptions of chris christie, will hurd, and asa hutchison, no one was saying, no, he mishandled classified documents. this is legitimate. we saw what happened on january 6th. it's legitimate. i think it's the political structure of the republican party. >> he has senators today endorsing him, people who actually are elected officials who have the platform to say, no. we could walk away from this. we heard a voter earlier that literally said, the lord is with donald trump. he has done nothing wrong. >> how many felony counts? >> it wasn't just senators who

endorsed him today. it was marco rubio, who we all remember from 2016 in a pitched battle with donald trump, in which he had some pretty unkind things to say about donald trump. and supported him in that was nikki haley. >> right. >> and i don't think the timing was an accident. >> right. >> you know the history of this. >> oh, yeah. more than a handful of jeb bush people took note of the rubio endorsement. >> you can skip to a minute to bush. >> no kidding. you know, on this poll, i'll give you what the republicans are talking about today. you're saying, can you blame them? look what fani willis is doing in georgia, hiring her boyfriend, putting him on the payroll, paying him aumts money, unqualified prosecutor, going on vacations with him and having to go and explain all that this weekend. i agree with everything that's been said here. he's got a strong base and whatever. things have happened to these investigations that have given trump the toe hold he needs to spin those stories into the

battery packs or the rocket fuel that you're talking about. and one is happening right now in georgia. and you know, as you all pointed out, he's got the best campaign he's had in three tries. and when stuff like this happens, their ability to rapidly inject that into the republican bloodstream is incredible. >> i don't know, scott. i mean, he was getting the benefit of it before fani willis' story came out. so, that may be helpful to him, but that's not why that happened. but they do believe -- by the way, your point is absolutely right. people are living their lives and they care about their lives. they also believe that trump is some economic, you know, maestro. and that's another thing. and they're basically saying, that's more important to me than this stuff. >> we'll see what president biden thinking of that. he thinks trump is going to be the nominee. stick around. we're going to go deeper into what those legal troubles look like. you heard scott mention what's happening in georgia. elie honig is here to lay those

all out for us. zpn how the court calendar is going to collide with the campaign on trump's road to try to get the nomination. that's next.

♪ the day after iowa former president trump will be back in a courtroom and this time for his defamation trial brought by e. jean carroll in new york city. it's becoming clear that this election will be contested not only on the campaign trail but also in the courtroom. here to break down the unprecedented array of legal challenges the current republican front runner is facing is the guru, cnn's senior legal analyst, elie honig. elie, the big question here of course is the calendar. there's the election and there are all of these court dates. >> abby, get ready. we've never seen anything like this. there are four pending criminal charges two, of them brought by doj special counsel jack smith, one relating to donald trump's effort to steal the 2020 election, the other relating to classified documents at mar-a-lago.

then there's two state level, one in manhattan related to hush money, and another in fulton county, georgia, for election subversion. trials, first of all, jack smith's doj case starts march 4th. the manhattan hush money case is scheduled for march 25th. they're both not going to go at the same time. that's impossible. one of them is going to have to give way. jack smith's other case scheduled for may 20th. forget about the fulton county case. we don't have a trial date. not going to happen before the election. the election itself, november 5th. we're not going to have a trial in november or september. republican convention, july 15th. and the day after jack smith's case is supposed to start, the 5th, that's super tuesday. this is really important. donald trump has to be physically in the courtroom for these criminal cases. he can pick and choose on the civil cases, but he will be off the campaign trail really for two months or so for each of these trials. >> this is already giving me

anxiety. what about the question of whether he's going to be on the ballot? >> 14th amendment says anyone who engaged in insurrection is disqualified. colorado ruled trump is out. the supreme court is taking the case. also the calendar tells us the oral argument to the supreme court, that's on february 8th. and you can tell when they're going to rule the court because march 5th, again, that's super tuesday. 16 states including colorado and maine, both vote then. you can bet the court's going to want to clarify that before super tuesday. >> you mentioned the civil lawsuits he's facing. what's the landscape there? >> you have three of these. we heard closing arguments just the other day. we'll get a ruling any day now from the judge. the e. jean carroll trial, the second one, starts this week. and trump's been sued by a group of january 6th police officers. these two will be playing alongside and over top the criminal cases and the primary and the caucuses and the election. >> elie, before you go, i want

to ask you about something fulton county d.a. fani willis said today. she p defended the allegations against her of misconduct. take a listen. >> i appointed three special counsel, that is my right to do, paid them all the same hourly rate. they only attacked one. -- a black man as qualified no, matter his achievements. what more can one achieve? the other two have never been judges. but no one questions their credentials. >> i mean, this is an allegation that she had an inappropriate relationship with one of her prosecutors. did that really hold water? >> i think we need to be careful about the allegations of the relationship. donald trump himself has not even joined this motion as of this moment. let's be careful there. i will say this, it is conspicuous to say the least to have the lead prosecutor on the biggest case this office has ever seen be a person who's never tried a felony criminal case. that should raise eyebrows about why this person.

>> a lot more for us to learn there. elie honig, thank you as always. we are live from the ground in iowa. up next, we have new details on what all the candidates are up to tonight, from our great reporters fanned out across the state. you will also hear from a former presidential candidate, a desantis surveilrogate, and muc more after this quick break.

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-- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com ♪ good evening to you. i'm abby phillip along with kaitlan collins here in new york. and thank you for joining our special coverage of the countdown to iowa. the first votes of the 2024 presidential election are now just hours away. anticipation is building, and so are those icicles. sub zero temperatures are set to make iowa's caucuses the coldest in history. >> and iowans know cold. despite that, though, the candidates today have been

pushing voters to still turn out tomorrow, clearly concerned about the effect it could have. nikki haley and ron desantis are hoping for momentum from tomorrow's caucuses. donald trump hoping it is the beginning of the end for at least one of them. our team of reporters has been following the candidates across iowa today. kristen holmes, kylie atwood, jessica dean. we've got all of them here covering all of the candidates. i want to start with kristen holmes, who is covering the trump campaign for us. kristen, we've seen the former president. he has spent probably less time in iowa than the other candidates here. he is still setting big expectations for voters tomorrow. what has been his closing message to iowans. >> kaitlan, his closing message is please show up on monday and caucus. it's about winning by a margin that is big enough to stop the momentum of his gop rivals, namely nikki haley. they want to set the tone with a wide enough margin, a big enough, definitive enough lead, so that it sets the tone for the entire primary season. and, again, stops anything that

they're seeing from their gop rivals. so, donald trump, today, in a very long speech, probably making up for some lost time because he had to cancel most of his events, went after nikki haley but also stressed the importance of caucusing no matter what. >> you must go caucus tomorrow. first step. you've got to get out. you can't sit home. if you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, i've got to make it. even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. remember? if you're sick, if you're just so sick, darling i don't think -- get up. get up. >> now, obviously some of that was a joke, but we are told that donald trump has been increasingly concerned about turnout. he has been asking advisers and allies about whether or not they think the weather is going to hurt turnout. he also has been urging his supporters not to be complacent. there has been a concern among

both trump and his campaign team that because those polls show him leading by 20 or 30 points that his supporters, well, in conjunction with the weather, might just decide that donald trump has enough support, they don't need to show up on monday. so, that's why you're hearing him really hit home that message over and over again, asking, urging people to show up on monday. >> i think some voters might define worth it, as he phrased it there. kristen holmes, thank you for that. kylie atwood is tracking the nikki haley campaign, where she just spoke to cnn. kylie, what did governor haley have to say? >> reporter: she said that the former president knows he's in trouble. she effectively believes that it's almost a good thing that former president trump is going after her because it means that he thinks that he has a target on his back, telling cnn's dana bash that when she worked for the former president in his administration, as the

ambassador to the united nations, he was actually quite complimentary of how tough she was back then. listen to what she said. >> i find it comical because when i was at the u.n., he always used to tell people, don't mess with her. she's tough. everybody who's ever worked with me, no one ever questions my toughness. he's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble. now he knows this is becoming a two-person race. >> now, two-person race. that is what nikki haley's team has said this will turn into once they get to new hampshire. but of course she's got to have a strong showing here in iowa before that can actually be the case. if desantis does well here in iowa, she won't have boxed him out like they're expecting she will be able to do. now, one of the things that they're watching for tomorrow is turnout, you know, how excited their voters are, if they actually get to the polls given these cold temperatures. but there were a lot of folks at this final event here who had

only seen nikki haley for the first time tonight. and some of them told me that they were going to go caucus for tomorrow. we'll have to watch and see. >> kylie atwood, thank you. and jessica dean tracking the desantis campaign, where he just wrapped up his final event of the day. jessica, what are we hearing from governor desantis, especially given "the des moines register" poll numbers, which is within the margin of error, but it has him in third place heading into tomorrow? >> kaitlan, everyone in his orbit will say they don't think that's indicative of what is going to happen tomorrow. the candidate, ron desantis, has been saying such public a z well. and there's a reason. they believe that the ground game and the organization that they have here -- i was told by never back down, the super pac that's aligned with him, they told me over 9,000 doors knocked in the state of iowa. they have a lot of touch points in 99 counties. they believe that is going to help them tomorrow, that they

have committed enthusiastic voters, and that that is going to carry them very well and very far tomorrow, especially with this x factor of this extremely dangerously cold weather. desantis just wrapping up his last event here in ankeny, iowa. what was interesting and what we all, kind of, noted is he really went after former president trump, only mentioning nikki haley, i counted one time by name, but really going after trump. listen. >> he's running a candidate, he's running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first. that's what he cares about. you can be the most worthless republican in america, but if you kiss the ring, he'll say, you're wonderful. you deserve a nominee that's going to put you first, not himself first. >> kaitlan, nobody has more on the line in this primary in iowa than ron desantis. he is counting on this.

he's gone all in, moving a lot of his campaign staff here, visiting all 99 counties, spending millions and millions of dollars. he wants to see a very strong finish. he wants to emerge as this alternative to the former president. the question is, will that happen? can that organization that they have touted again and again carry him through to get him where he wants to be, as he heads into the next phase of this primary? we're going to find out tomorrow night. kaitlan? >> indeed we will. jessica dean, thank you. joining me now is former wisconsin governor scott walker. he ran for the gop nomination back in 2016 and is now the president of young america's foundation, a conservative youth organization. governor walker, thanks for joining us tonight. you have not endorsed, is my understanding, in this cycle. but you have predicted in "the washington times" that trump is going to be the nominee after iowa. how do you think it works that trump can win a state like iowa, spending perhaps the least amount of time there?

>> i think voters in that state recognize ron desantis has done a fabulous job as governor of florida. nikki haley did an outstanding job as ambassador of the united nations. but in the end, voters want someone who is proven. i think that shows certainly with caucus goers. we're going to see it in place place like new hampshire and nevada, even places like south carolina, where former president trump is expected to win big. a lot of voters look and say there's politicians, candidates who are say all the right things, but then go to washington and fail to deliver. donald trump may not always say or tweet the things we do or the way we do, but i think for a lot of voters you'll look and say, but he gets the job done. that's why he's so far ahead. >> some of your fellow republicans, including i'm sure governor chris sununu and former governor larry hogan, saying that's not true, saying there's

one candidate best positioned to beat joe biden and it's not trump. listen. >> donald trump is simply the weakest candidate. i think we want to have the strongest possible nominee in november. polls show that is nikki haley. she's 17 points ahead of joe biden s biden. and it's a toss up with trump and biden and desantis is losing. >> what do you say to that? >> well, one, you've got to believe the polls. but i think if you do, i think those polls probably are largely accurate. right now the person who would attract the most swing voters, moderate voters, in the polls i've seen in key swing states, the one who polls the best is nikki haley. the next after that of the three is governor desantis. i think the problem for each of them as challengers is in five of those six key battleground states, donald trump polls ahead of joe biden. so, even though they might make the case that they're a little bit better, little bit more likely to win as it stands --

and again we just saw last week, michigan, a key battleground state the last couple of cycles. joe biden is losing to donald trump in that state by eight points. and if this election is a referendum on the economy, joe biden gets blown away, we saw it even before the first presidential primary debate. we did a poll at young america's foundation of young people, and the number one issue of college students is actually economy. and that's where joe biden is really in trouble. >> what if it's a referendum on donald trump? it's possible that he could be a convicted felon in november. and as you heard ron desantis just say, he thinks that this is going to be a race that's all about donald trump's 91 problems. >> well, again, i think you see, though, in poll after poll and focus group after focus group, even people who are aligned with some of the other candidates ---en ron desantis, nikki haley, just saw nikki haley supporter talking this morning about how they still believe that all these legal issues are largely politically

motivated, they're campaign related. i think that's true not only with republican voters overall, even those not necessarily voting in the caucus for the former president. i see in swing states, that people get they can see through this, they can see the nonsense n. some regards, i heard your previous segment. if he's tied up, normally conventional wisdom would be that's tough for campaigning. everybody in america knows who joe biden is and know who donald trump is. this isn't a matter of introducing themselves. the more time and attention put on joe biden as opposed to donald trump is probably a good thing for those of us who want to see someone other than joe biden in the white house. >> all right. former governor scott walker, thank you so much. >> thank you. and our panel is here. what do you make of what he had to say there? >> big fan of scott walker's, i think. my issue is this. we've had these polling data, people who say they'll vote for donald trump if he's a convicted

felon. i think that may look very different after we actually see him on trial, after we see his chief of staff testify against him, likely vice president pence testify against him. it will be a relitigating of the worst day of his presidency, january 6th, the insurrection we all saw with our eyes. i think while that may be the position now because there's fatigue with joe biden, people want to see someone wearing their jersey back in the white house. i could see those numbers precipitously drop by summer of this year. >> i think there is a cohort of voters, some republicans, a lot of independents, who really don't want biden, would vote for trump, but would abandon ship if he becomes a convicted felon. they won't associate their franchise with it. at the same time, i was taken aback by this abc news "washington post" survey, joe biden at 33% job approval nationally. huge majority of americans say he doesn't have the mental acuity right now to serve as president, let alone for a second term. when i think about the impact of a conviction on donald trump's candidacy, i continue to think

about the ongoing impact of dissatisfaction with biden and the belief that he's simply not up to it. and you throw on the possible third party candidates, which i think are hurting biden. and you can see a world where trump gets convicted, still wins this thing. >> i actually think that it would be in biden's interest for trump to do well tomorrow, to do well in new hampshire, and to dispatch the primary race and get on the with general election so that he can bring trump into sharp focus here. and i think trump winning, you know, week after week and looking like the harlem globetrotters defeating the washington generals every week helps him look formidable. but, i mean, i think this is going to be a battle. i don't think it's going to be -- no one's going to run away with this. it's going to be a close race. and there's no doubt that this is a liability if he gets convicted, which is why he's fighting so hard. obviously he wants to dispatch them if he's president. he also knows that it's bad for him if this trial goes forward

in washington on the january 6th -- >> but can we -- that ron desantis that we just heard from in his final event of the night before tomorrow starts, hearing him talk about trump is so remarkable because he is someone who would not talk about trump like that at the beginning of this campaign. the closest he would get is talking about their policy differences. he shunned the main stream media? w . what do you make of his last minute -- >> they vote tomorrow and he decided to do it, what, like on christmas eve? it's too little too late. stores close early on christmas eve because it's too late. so, i think, you know, ron desantis did an effort to be minime in terms of donald trump. and people didn't want a mini-me. they wanted donald trump. and i hope that if he is convicted and if he is the nominee, then people will say, that's a brinl too far. but we had the january 6th hearings, and those were

broadcasted everywhere. we saw january 6 live in action, and we've had indictment after indictment and his numbers have just gone up. i'm not sure a conviction is going to do it. i agree. as democrats, we want this done. we want donald trump and let's get to the general. >> biden did pretty well -- his numbers actually were better during that period of the january 6th hearings, when people were really focused on trumps, his numbers relative to trump. can i just say one thing on your point about the speech in ankeny? we should point out that that is a suburb of des moines, where haley has strength and where it's more the profile of her voter, the anti-trump voter. and i think that as much as anything he was talking to his audience there because now it's like hand-to-hand combat appearance after appearance. that may have something to do with why he emphasized that at that particular event. >> the other person who probably

wants it to be wrapped up as soon as tomorrow night is donald trump. and he's perhaps doing it in an interesting way this weekend. he went after scott's favorite person, vivek ramaswamy. >> i was wondering who that was going to be. >> listen to what ron desantis had to say. >> i notice that they -- that he threw the -- vivek, he threw him under the bus. you know, it's like, i've never seen a candidate run for an office and basically campaign for another candidate in the same race before. and that's what's happened. but the minute he wasn't useful, they dropped the hammer on him. >> do you see a strategy, first of all, scott, in trump throwing vivek ramaswamy under the bus, who some people saw ramaswamy as an attempt to soften desantis. and now desantis, at the end there, he's saying this is all going to be about trump's legal problems. >> yeah, for a long time in his

campaign, vivek was essentially a surrogate for donald trump, doesn't come to the debates, doesn't do the other stuff, so vivek was his stand-in. he showed up at the courthouse in miami. he's running against trump but wearing trump's parafreqphernal. what is trump trying to do tomorrow night? beat expectations. and this 50% number could be one of those expectations. if he doesn't get there, one of the reasons is going to be because vivek stole 5 or 6% or 7 or 8 away from him. and that's going to really make donald trump angry. i did note that chris lass vida compared ramaswamy to a parasite clinging on the to the bottom of a shark in a tweet tonight. while they found usefulness in him for a while, i think the worm has turned. >> his positive numbers in that poll are much higher than haley's. he had a 53, positive 37 negative.

he's actually done pretty well in that state. >> just to be clear, donald trump is the shark, the predatory, most dangerous animal in the ocean. >> i think donald trump is supposed to be the shark in that very specific analogy. everyone, stand by. we will be coming back in just a bit. we're going to turn to another major factor in the race, which is of course the weather. the candidates, they've all been pressing voters to turn out for them in these extremely, extremely dangerous temperatures in iowa tomorrow. a live update on just how cold it's going to get. up next.

♪ tomorrow's iowa caucuses are set to be the coldest on record by a lot. iowans are going to wake up to temperatures more than 15 degrees below zero, and it's not going to get much warmer than that throughout the day, which obviously could be a major factor and a wildcard potentially for turnout. chad myers is in the cnn weather center tracking the forecast. chad, let me tell you, there's a lot of concern about the livestock in iowa and how they're going to be faring tomorrow. what about the people? what are they expecting tomorrow? >> the people are going to be taking care of the livestock. that's what's going to be happening. a lot of them aren't going to have time to spend four hours going to town and going back to the farm and finding out things went very wrong while they were gone. i grew up in nebraska. i know how these things work. we never think of iowa as a

purple state, but right now, iowa is a purple state. it is 14 degrees below zero right now in cedar rapids, 13 belee in des moines, 16 below zero in spirit lake in okoboji, where i used to go as a kid. and that's cold. even without the wind, it is cold. and tomorrow the numbers are going to look exactly the same, maybe a degree or two warmer. but as you said, there's snow on the ground. when the sun hits the snow it's not going to warm the land very much because they're just going to bounce back up. the coldest we've known out for the last couple of elections, 2004, at 16. and we know that this 2004 was affected by that 16. we're going to be 20 degrees colder than that for tomorrow afternoon. so, people going to those election places are going to be standing in line, driving. we are now 31 degrees -- the departure from normal. it's cold.

no, it's 31 degrees colder than it should be tomorrow. so, very cold. >> put your blankets on your cows. chad myers, thank you. >> absolutely. and joining me now is nicole slinger, a long time republican strategist in iowa, who's worked with four different presidential campaigns. she's the president and cofounder of campaign hq, which helps turn out voters for gop candidates nationwide. nicole, thanks for joining us. you are in des moines. you know exactly what it is like to be out in an iowa winter. what are you seeing first of all, on the roads, as you're driving around and hearing from people about turnout at the caucuses tomorrow? >> absolutely. well, roads were significantly improved today. once you can get out from the gravel and onto the county roads, the hard surface roads, things are looking good and they're only going to get better by tomorrow. you know, turnout will be impacted, and this will be a good test of candidates'

organization. a good campaign organization will include precinct captains who should be working to make sure everyone who's identified for that campaign and for that candidate has a plan to vote. that includes vans. that includes people with pickup trucks. wheelchairs for the folks who might not be steady on their feet. this is going to be a real test of the iowa caucus organization zpl . >> to say the least. can you give us the big picture view on caucuses. i think a lot of people may not know what a caucus is. it takes a lot more time than simply going to the polls at your leisure. >> absolutely. so, the main difference between a caucus and a primary is that a k caucus is a party organizing function. it's run by the state party, and volunteers at over 1,600 precinct locations across the state. so, doors open at 6:00, and it starts at 7:00. there's no absentee voting. you have to show up.

and you have to bring an i.d. and register as a republican either beforehand or when you get there. and then we'll conduct some party business and then conduct our presidential preference poll. every candidate will have a chance to have a representative of their campaign speak. then we'll pass out paper ballots, and everyone will have the chance to write down their candidate of choice. those will be collected and they'll be counted and overseen by representatives from each of the campaign so that we know that one person, one vote, that it gets counted securely and reported back to the state party securely. that's the kickoff of how we nominate our delegates who are going to represent us at the national convention next summer, which is where we're going to choose our nominee for president, who's going to be going up against joe biden to take back the white house. so, we'll also be starting our party platform process at that time. people can come and propose planks that can get all the way up into the national platform, which is really an amazing opportunity for grass roots folks to get involved, to get

elected, to get higher positions in the party. and it all starts on monday night. >> do you think in the midst of a lot of backlash in some corners about caucuses, which are pretty low turnout events, does the caucus survive for republicans after this cycle? >> i think that there are differences in the way that republicans vote at caucuses and the way that democrats historically had voted. as i said before, with republicans it's one person, one vote. and that means that we have a verifiable paper trail to ensure that our results are safe, secure, and accurate. that's really important. but what's even more important is the caucus process ensures that every candidate gets vetted by regular, everyday, salt of the earth americans. and if a candidate can simply buy their way to the nomination on television, certain voices might not get an opportunity to be heard. in iowa, you can run for president.

it doesn't matter how much money you have. and every candidate is going to get their opportunity for caucus goers to vet them, to ask them questions. every time we see some front runner stumble. and to me, i would rather see that in iowa and not next november when they're on the debate stage with joe biden. so, the caucus plays an important part in our process and a part that makes our candidate ultimately better. >> thank you very much for joining us tonight. >> thank you. and with only a few hours to go, ron desantis is down playing the new poll showing him in third place ahead of this crucial first vote in iowa. he's saying that he likes being under estimated. we'll talk to a congressman who's been close at his side all week. next.

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florida governor ron desantis is projecting confidence tonight despite what the polls show. >> we're in this for the long haul. we understand that you've got to win a majority of the delegates. we understand that there's a long process here. but we're going to do well because we've done it right.

>> the governor has gone on to hold multiple in-person events, even with the weather that we've seen happening in iowa. and among those there on his behalf, as he has been for several days, working overtime, is texas republican congressman chip roy. congressman, thank you for being here. just last month, governor desantis said they were going to win iowa. does he still feel that way tonight? >> look, i think he's got an excellent shot, and i think we've got all the organization in place. there's a reason when we got done on thursday, i got it and flew out to st. louis. my flight was cancelled. i had to rent a car and drive through the blizzard to get to des moines. spent all day on the road with the governor crisscrossing the state. i went from council bluffs, nebraska, dubuque, cedar rabbits, back to des moines. tomorrow we'll get to sioux city. the people of iowa expect you to

earn it. the organization you put in place is how you get that done. there's a reason nikki haley didn't show up to her event in dubuque today. she no showed. there's a reason donald trump has been skipping debates and no showed in cast county when governor desantis went to cast county just yesterday. i think that's going to show up. and i think the people on the ground are enthusiastic and ready to support governor desantis. we'll see what happens tomorrow. >> would a third place finish tomorrow mean the end of the desantis campaign, in your view? >> well, look, i think the governor's in it for the long haul. he understands this is a delegate game. part of this takes time to get people focused, to listen to the message. we've been converting lots of folks. i'll sit there and lay out someone who supported -- after i supported ted cruz, i was his chief of staff, as you know. i supported donald trump in 2016 and he was a guy who wanted to come in and shine a light on the swamp. there's been a lot of deficiencies. i've done that laid out the

record. governor desantis has done the same thing. i think he's going ohave a good night tomorrow night. i think he's got a good shot to win it, the organization on the ground, it's a turnout game. i keep telling the people of iowa they hold in their hand the power to change this country, to put in place a candidate we can get behind, that we're proud of, and that we can rally behind tomorrow night and send to the other states for our kids and our grandkids. and that's the message i've been delivering. i think if we have the turnout operation tomorrow night in the freezing cold, we'll do very well. >> congressman, you said you're not afraid to point out donald trump's deficiencies. you were one of five total house members that endorsed governor desantis. a lot have endorsed trump. and you know trump pays close attention to who endorses, who doesn't, certainly who campaigns against him. if trump is the nominee, are you worried about any retribution or blowback from him? >> no. i mean, first of all, look, we put our faith in principles, not

in princes. my old boss, governor rick perry, he called president trump a cancer. he ended up being the secretary of energy. politics is a rough and tumble business. if you can't take that, you shouldn't be in it. i think president trump should show up and debate governor desantis. he's not doing that. governor desantis has cleaned his clock up and down and the ballot. the reality is he's in a really good spot tomorrow night to do a good job. i don't fear any of that. i'm out here to try to represent the people that i represent, to try to make this country a better place for my kids and grandkids. and the people of iowa are responding to that. they get it. they know we need to look forward, not backwards. we need to focus on their issues, not the former president's issues, not the donors' issues like nikki haley focuses on. i think we need to move forward and governor desantis is the right person to do it. >> i don't know. we'll see what the voters decide tomorrow. there was just a call with house speaker mike johnson back in washington, a lot of questions,

as he's facing one of the toughest moments as his short tenure so far as speaker. congress is facing two government funding deadlines over just the next month alone. you had said there were conversations about potentially remooifing him from that job. have those conversations become more serious? should he be worried about job security tonight? >> look, as i've said, mike is a friend. i have no interest in going down that road. i had no interest in going down that road with kevin. the fact is, that tool is on the table. we've got to have the conversation about getting it right. what the american people are sick of is doing the same old same old. what are we going to do right now? apparently the strategy is to put another continued resolution to basically extend almost to six months, half a year, at nancy pelosi's spending levels. that's not why the republicans were given the majority, to spend at nancy pelosi's levels. by the way, just to buy time to then pass a bill that will spend more than nancy pelosi's spending levels.

that's a nonstarter. we need to secure the border, cut spending like we said we would, and then use that to go try to build a majority in november. >> congressman chip roy, stay warm out there in iowa. thank you for your time tonight. >> will do it. and let me know when you get over nick saban's retirement. >> probably never. so, thank you for bringing that up again. really appreciate it. meanwhile, as we talk about iowa, not alabama, win sg a big deal. it doesn't always mean those candidates are going to the wh white housuse. we're e going to t take a looko the e past. mimight tell u us about ththe f right afafter this.. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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the iowa caucuses hold a unique place in the process of selecting a president, but they are not, at least not recently, the most accurate predictor of who that person will be. for more than a half century, we have seen politicians dedicate

months, sometimes even years, to courting voters in the state that has the 31st largest population. >> democrats in iowa are beginning a series of party caucuses, which takes the place of a primary there. >> monday when iowa begins the actual process of selecting a president. >> well, election literally begins tonight. the place, iowa. >> since the caucuses began back in 1972, these 20 candidates have claimed victory. whether those politicians went on to become those party's nominee depends a little bit on which party they come from. for democrats, these seven eventually saw their names appear on the general election ballot. for republicans, only four have won iowa and gone on to win the nomination. that includes a 20-year gap between george w. bush and donald trump. as for actually going from a win in iowa to a seat in the oval office, only these three, jimmy carter, barack obama, and george w. bush, have won a contested caucus in iowa and then become

president. what iowa does often produce is surprises. it has always been that way. in 1972, george mcgovern was a long shot senator from south dakota who used his second place finish in iowa to propel him to the democratic nomination. in 1980, ronald reagan was considered such a lock that he skipped the last debate. the winner of the republican caucus that year turned out to be george h.w. bush, getting him enough attention to land him a spot on the ticket as vice president. in 2004, howard dean's fall from early front runner to third place prompted this infamous scream in des moines right after he lost the caucuses. he was trying to keep his disappointed supporters fired up. >> we're going to washington, d.c. to take back the white house! >> the flip side of that story would be jimmy carter, who actually got fewer votes than people who chose uncommitted, but he used iowa as a spring

board. >> jimmy carter, clearly the winner, scored well, came from nowhere. >> when carter first visited iowa one year ago, few people had even heard of him. >> then in 2008, the obama mania started, with this win in iowa. >> a crushing crowd at this annual iowa state site devouring barack obama, rock star treatment for a 45-year-old senator in office just two years, 97th of 100 in senate seniority. >> but for all the storys that look like that, there's also a lot more that look like rick santorum or pete buttigieg, or ted cruz, even, for whom winning iowa was only a highlight. despite all the stumbles iowa has had, like in 2012 when mitt romney was originally declared a winner, only to find out a week later that santorum actually had 34 more votes.

or 2020, the technical glitches that left no clear winner for weeks. iowa is often about momentum. who can exceed expectations. surprise second place finishes often generate attention, especially for gary hart in '84, pat buchanan in 1996, even john kerry in 2004. all three men dramatically overperformed what the polls predicted, and they used that momentum to pull off wins in new hampshire. it's exactly what nikki haley is hoping to do tomorrow and what ron desantis wants to prevent. of course none of those candidates went on to become president, i should note, but haley is hoping to turn history on its head. the next chapter of iowa will be written tomorrow. the big question is what those expectations look like, if anyone exceeds them. predictions on all of that and more with our panel right after this.

we are now just about an hour away from caucus day in iowa, and tomorrow's results will have a major impact on what comes next. new hampshire's primary is only nine days from now. joining me one last time tonight is our great political panel. guys, believe it or not, donald trump is once again on top in the election results. >> in new hampshire they are signing people to vote, and i think that's disgraceful and i don't know if they are allowed

to do it. >> he's referring to the same-day voting, and that's something he needs to understand. he's scared. >> i think he's looking at -- we are hearing about the polls for haley. she's relying on a substantial amount of democrats and independence -- not democrats but independents, and nonrepublicans may put his margins in jeopardy, and that's what his campaign will argue, if the margins are not quite what they want, among the republican party -- >> that's a way to mobilize republicans by raising that specter, and he basically thinks any election that he doesn't win is a cooked election. this is a normal refrain for him. i think he will have a good day tomorrow. i don't think he will have to

make any excuses tomorrow. you know, these polls, he has a 28-point lead in the "des moines register" poll, and it would be shocking to me if he didn't have a good day tomorrow. >> i think he's sewing doubt because he's selfish and he's a liar. he has done it to date and it actually has not backfired on him. let's play this out and say it doesn't go like he wanted it to in iowa and new hampshire, and he still wins but not as wide a margin, and he tries to rip the republican party apart like he ripped our country apart. he's banking, you know, that insurance policy. >> be on the lookout for dirty tricks. he sees it as an an mating factor, if there is wrong doing, and it's partly that and another

insurance mechanism if, in fact, he under performs. >> it's becoming the new party trick in the republican party, if you don't like the results, just say it's rigged? >> i am a victim, you know, that's -- the victimization in american culture right now. >> i would love to change the subject. i love -- i love desantis, and i love being underestimated and being the underdog, and he answered as the over dog. he spent eight dogs reducing expectations for himself, but in the last month he has been a different candidate, i think. he's closing strong. he does have organization. you look at the poll and you think, he might eke out a second, but in terms of him saying i am going on to south carolina only because it's on the way to tallahassee if he finishes third.

>> do you think if he finishes third that's it for him? >> it depends on the margin. independent expenditures and negative ads in the campaign to date, ron desantis raised $48 million, and it's pretty obvious -- >> well, ron desantis was the culture war candidate. i am surprised, actually, it didn't play as well as he thought it would, but maybe that's a lesson for folks, maybe don't go after every constituency in the american population. >> that's another conversation, but that woke ideology thing has really gone by the wayside. everyone, great night and great conversation. the news continues right here on cnn after a quick break. >> thank you so much. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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