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♪ ♪ and good evening and welcome to a special edition of "outfront." i'm erin burnett on this sunday. tonight the first contest of the 2024 election is only hours away. republican candidates are out in temperatures well below zero, but they're still fighting to try to get everybody to turn out and vote in iowa. you're looking at live pictures right now of nikki haley's rally on election eve, and she is not alone. ron desantis and vivek ramaswamy also holding events tonight. their supporters are there too, despite the dangerous conditions. and that's because of course the stakes could not be higher. there is so much on the line in this unprecedented election campaign season that we are now finally in the midst of. haley and desantis are

desperately trying to close the gap with trump, who just wrapped up his rally in the final hours. and, you know, as i say, it's unprecedented. but there is still some sense of history here. and in past elections, iowa always ends up being about turnout. trump, for one, has experienced that, and knows it. >> you can't sit home. if you're sick as a dog, you say darling, i got to. even if you vote and pass away, it's worth it. >> i want to make sure to get that one in there tonight. all right. we're going bring you the candidates' closing pitches and break down the factors that could help propel someone towards the white house and send some others, well, ending their hopes. jeff zeleny begins our coverage tonight. "outfront" live in des moines. so, geoff, it's freezing, and it can be very dangerous in many places where people may have to caucus. where does the race stand tonight? >> erin, it's actually below

freezing. and the winds are the far bigger concern here. that is why all of the campaigns have their eye on the weather forecast, and even more than that, the specific road conditions. have all these roads been plowed? will they blow over again with all the snow coming here this past week? but because of all of that, all the campaigns, of course, have intense strategies. they know where their supporters are. now the challenge is to get them out to the caucus sites tomorrow evening. erin, across all of this, the biggest picture, can the iowa caucuses be a roadblock for donald trump or a glide path to his nomination? >> brave the weather and go out and save america. because that's what you're doing. >> reporter: donald trump is eyeing a knockout victory in iowa, hoping the first contest sets him on a rocket ride to the republican nomination. >> usa! usa! >> tomorrow, january 15th, i need each and every one of you to get out, everybody, everybody

get out and vote, bring your friend. we say plus ten. so plus ten or plus two or plus 20, but bring them all out because we have to set the stage for november. >> reporter: on the eve of the iowa caucuses, nikki haley and ron desantis in a furious scramble for second place. even as they work to sow seeds of doubt about the electability of the former president. >> here in iowa, you have the ability to change the trajectory of american politics. >> do something. you can be the start of the solution that we have. >> reporter: the closely watched des moines register iowa poll found trump with a commanding lead and found that 68% of caucusgoers have made up their minds. but a quarter are still deciding. >> i hope after this you commit to us and come out tomorrow and help us. >> reporter: the stakes are remarkably high for the florida governor, who has placed his hopes on a strong iowa finish. he is counting on a robust organization to ward off a late shift towards haley.

as the former south carolina governor took the stage at weekend rallies, drew klein navigated the snow-covered streets of the suburbs, going door to door in search of haley supporter. >> certainly encourage you to get out there. we're stumping for haley. >> reporter: some republicans said they intended to brave the elements. others did not. >> do you plan on caucusing on monday? >> no. >> not going to get out? >> it's too cold, buddy. >> reporter: what do you think people are going to do? >> there are folks who are going to decide the stay home for sure. we're trying to overcome that as much as possible by kind of laying out to them the gravity of their votes and their participation and what that means. when you're deciding between the couch and 70 degrees or negative 5 degrees outside of your front door, it's tough to get people to go. >> reporter: tonight, the frigid weather remains the biggest wild card in a race that has been remarkably stable in its dominance by trump. from summer to winter, with one of his biggest worries now being

complacency among supporters. >> we got to be sure that we put this thing away. this things away. >> reporter: the iowa caucuses come at a critical moment for the republican party. as voters render the first judgments on whether to choose trump for a rematch with president biden or move in gnaw direction. ann wagner said she intends to skip her weekly bible study to attend her caucus. she knows trump holds a commanding lead, but she'll support haley to keep the republican primary going beyond iowa. >> she needs to know that people are behind her, and the world needs to know that we're serious. >> and erin, in the closing arguments today to voters, some interesting strands we're picking up. particularly from the former president. he took on nikki haley in a way he has not before. he spent several minutes talking about her at a rally earlier this afternoon. he said she's not tough enough to be president. for her part, she largely ignored him saying it's time for voters to move forward. certainly donald trump has his

eye on what comes after this. of course, new hampshire, as does nikki haley. but as for ron desantis, all of his hopes are placed in iowa. there is no doubt there is no one that is campaigning harder or working more aggressively to make sure his campaign stays alive after iowa. but erin, for all of the millions of dollars spent on television ads and on strategy, it may come down to the weather and whose supporters are able to get to the caucus sites and who decides to actually leave their couches. >> all right, jeff zeleny, thank you very much. when it comes to things like foreign policy, nobody would say nikki haley isn't tough. but that would be one of the gender things the former president very good at throwing out there. everyone is with me. alice, you have worked on a lot of campaigns in iowa. huckabee, santorum, cruz, two were expected to lose if you went by the final des moines register poll. trump led the find poll. cruz won in 2016. romney led the final poll. rick santorum won in 2012.

even though we are in this unprecedented moment, iowa is often unpredictable. >> it certainly is. especially now mother nature is coming in, it's going to test the resolve of the turnout for the campaigns. you can sit there throughout the spring and summer and fall and work on a commit to caucus cooperation, but you really have to drill it home when you have these kinds of conditions. one of the things that is in donald trump's favor is in that des moines register poll, talked about where he is overall. but the enthusiasm gap is important. he has an 88% very high enthusiasm rating with the voters. nikki haley is down to like 40. so it just goes to show he has people that are more energized and enthusiastic about getting out there to vote for him. so that bodes well for him. look, overall the most important thing is turning people out to vote. ron desantis has a tremendous ground game. he has been working on this for a long time, knocking on doors, making phone calls, and doing

this commit to caucus early. the question is, are those people still with him, and will they deliver. right now i look at ron desantis as having the most to lose if he doesn't come in a very strong second place tomorrow night. >> so margaret, your great grandfather, so often that this comes up. >> iowa's only president. >> herbert hoover. >> so you're involved with the presidential library there. and you know the state well. you know the politics of the state well. i know today you've been talking to a lot of people who say they intend to caucus in that area. what are you watching for? >> i'm looking to see if trump has a strong over 50%, which by the way, the republicans in iowa, you can't help. you get on the phone with them. and trump is the gravitational center of the universe in iowa in terms of the gop. he just is. and so the question is, this poll has him at 48%. but anecdotally folks i talk to, whether they're caucus for him, believe he is going to clear 50%. so the question is who comes in second?

and is it a strong second? does nikki haley have a prayer going into new hampshire, or is this over? >> look, nothing is over. >> he was on the phone too. >> the talking to the same folks, west branch, iowa shout out. the important thing to also remember is the governor of the state, kim reynolds, popular governor, bob vander plaats, evangelical leader, both notably declined to endorse donald trump. they backed ron desantis. >> right. >> so the top leaders in iowa have been looking for an alternative to donald trump. look, the responsibility in iowa is disproportionate, but especially this year. >> we should just remember now that we're really in it, it's not just about trump. turnout matters because it matters about delegate allocation. now we're in the race for delegates. it's 40 delegates coming out of iowa. so part of the reason that trump wants a big showing is yes,

having a big showing is going to have some momentum, right. >> right. >> number two, he wants those delegates. he wants to wrap up this nomination by super tuesday and have enough delegates that it's impossible to catch him. >> so, geoff, it's interesting though is in that des moines register poll that alice mentions is so important, it has trump winning by the largest margin of any nonincumbent presidential candidate. you treat him as an incumbent, but nonetheless, it's a significant thing. about a quarter of the voters in the poll say they have not made up their mine. something ron desantis is pounding the table about today. what does that signal to you? does it mean anything? >> in 2024, i can't believe we're still talking about donald trump as a common sense conservative who wants to beat the brakes off joe biden. anybody with a heart beat and a republican card in their wallet would be 10, 15, 20 points ahead. but here we are. donald trump is like a bad boss. nobody likes him except for when he is in the room. they talk behind his back. if somebody can break the strings of gravity, nikki haley can get 25, 26, 27%, ron desantis can take his medicine and go home, i think we got a chance to roll it into new hampshire and have actual momentum. something that turns the tide.

but this is all a momentum game. if donald trump gets 50 plus points, then the game is going to keep going. everybody is going to show up in the break room and act like they like him. >> is there something that alice is talking about, that ron desantis has executed so well? everybody would acknowledge that, that he has. been to every county twice, he has gotten all the people in place. there any chance that that upside surprises? >> there is always a chance. however, minuscule at this point. however, to everybody's point, and i think this is why donald trump is out there saying if you're close to death, come vote for me any way, because he wants to guard against this inevitability. with him polling so high. >> right. >> is he now concerned that people will say, he's going to win anyways, so i'm not going

out. that's what give ron desantis and nikki haley a window. it's about wrapping up these delegates. if he doesn't do well enough, that means you give desantis and nikki haley enough to carry into new hampshire. >> ironically, to your point, john, that's why maybe he focussed on ramaswamy. he is polling at 8%. trump came out today, vivek started his campaign. he is a great supporter. now all he does is disguise in the form of deceitful campaign tricks, very sly, but a vote for ramaswamy is a vote for the other side. that's a lot to expend on a poll. >> the trump team has been saying don't take it for granted. he knows his vote is coming. ramaswamy is cannibalizing his vote to some extent. he's experienced what -- >> the haley voter is not maybe going to vote for trump? >> that's exactly right. >> that 25% is not going or the trump at the end of the day. we saw in 2012 and 2016, the

poles don't always -- aren't au always the predictor. when ted cruz beat donald trump in 2016, what did donald trump do? he said it was stolen. he said it was a fraud, rigged. which also shows the reflexive nature of those lies in any election he loses. don't take none of this for granted. caucuses are different. and that's why no one should -- polls don't vote. people do. >> everyone stay with me. it is exciting. i feel like we've never left election mode and finally you're having the first votes. next, trump not letting up on his opponents tonight. >> ron desanctimonious and nikki haley will never secure our border. >> plus, trump says nikki haley is not tough enough. well, what is her response to that? dana bash just spoke to her, and she is going to share was and live pictures out of iowa tonight where it was important to note jeff zeleny corrected me as he should, and i said it's freezing. he said no, it's well below. 31 below to be exact. we'll be back.

and welcome back to a special edition of "outfront." countdown to iowa on this sunday. trump is making his final pitch to voters, and even his polls show him with a wide lead. tonight he is not letting up on his rivals. >> ron desantis and nikki haley will never secure our border, and they'll never come close to it. ron and nikki also want to gut social security and medicare for seniors. now they're changing their tune. first of all, they're both getting killed by biden in the polls. >> obviously there is no poll that shows that. but it is worth noting that haley, who likes to point this out herself, actually, out performs biden by eight points in the newest poll we have tonight, eight points as of now. that's the facts from the polls. kristen holmes is "outfront" in indianola, iowa. what is the latest thinking from trump's team? >> well, erin, after they saw the poll last night, they feel

pretty confident they're going win. but the question of course is how big of a margin are they going to win by? i know your panel talked about this. anything over 12 points is going to be historic. but the bigger the margin, the better for donald trump, not just for the delegates. not just to win. it's because they really want to set the momentum going into the primary season. and on top of that, they want to stop any momentum that is gop rivals have, particularly nikki haley. and that's what you heard so much of in his speech today, hitting nikki haley, saying she was not ready to be president, that she was weak, that he knew her well. at one point seemingly giving her a compliment, but then saying she couldn't be president. this went on and on foremost of his two-hour speech. he is clearly somewhat rattled by what they have seen, his team have seen in new hampshire in particular when it comes to nikki haley's poll numbers and the rise in the poll numbers. so they're hoping to stunt any sort of momentum that she has. the other part of this, i know you guys were just discussing this, is that he wants everyone to come out and vote.

i'm talking to several of his senior advisers who say, yes, he is worried about the weather. yes, he is worried that it could impact turnout. a big part of their ground game that they organized was getting out first-time caucusgoers. in order to do that, they had to use data, seek out people who had supported donald trump, but never really shown up at a caucus. are they going to show up this time? that's a big question. they believe they will. but he is pushing and pushing to get them there on monday. >> all right. that's really what it's all going to come down. to kristen, thank you very much. and i want to go now straight to john king at the magic wall. so john, finally, tomorrow it begins. iowa. so what are you watching for? >> well, finally, erin, 24 hours from now, we'll be counting votes. we'll be watching the wall fill

in, 99 counties in iowa, many of them rural. that's key to donald trump. let's go back to what you've been discussing with your panel, excuse me for turning my back. i want to stretch this out. ted cruz came back, he was behind and he one against donald trump. rick santorum won in 2012, surpassing mitt romney. but the lead was nothing like that. donald trump at 48%, nikki haley at 20, santorum at 16. so this would be an earth-shattering what if someone beat donald trump in iowa. so largely, it seems to be a fight for second place. but can trump stay under there? so what do you look for? one of the key things, erin, we talked about this a little the other night. if you look at this, the deeper the shading, the more evangelicals live in the counties. that's the area donald trump split with ted cruz in 2016. that's where the area where donald trump, mostly small rural counties, maybe a few thousand people, but if you add them all up, that's how he offsets any losses in the suburban areas. that's the key. that's where trump wants to run it up. and that's where they're worried about turnout. if you're nikki haley and looking at the map, what you're thinking about is can i get into the suburban counties? can i get people to come out there? i want to show you right here.

the lighter gray counties, the lighter gray around des moines and ames, around sioux city, cedar falls, these are not big cities like new york, not big cities like philadelphia, but those are your urban areas. a lot of new people in the suburbs. that's the key. if we're going to see nikki haley pull off any kind of a surprise, it will be there. if desantis is a surprise, it's because he competes like cruz did for rural evangelicals. >> we know people are allowed to register throughout the day if they want republicans to vote here. so obviously trump sounding confident. but as basil is pointing out, he is worried that with the lead coming out in the poll, people are a little lackadaisical, they don't actually show up tomorrow. is that a reasonable concern when you look at the enthusiasm of his voters? >> well, his people and enthusiasm, his voter far more enthusiastic than anybody else's by far.

it tilts more rural, and it tilts older. do you want to get in your car and risk something happening to you if you're older, driving 15, 20 minutes to the polling place. it brings up the interesting point here, too. they've been very, very confident to the end. look at the ad spending here. again, turn my back so people can see it. haley's campaign and pro-haley superpacs have spent about $8 million since the beginning of the year. desantis a little more than $6 million. that's the desantis campaign and superpacs that support him. pro-trump has spent much less money because they entered the new year very confident. you have to schedule the tv time a long time ago. one of the reasons he saying come vote even if you're sick. they were so confident they have not spent as much on television, and now there's a debate whether that works or not. the reason he is saying vote if you're circumstances and erin, the key here is they have the phone numbers, so they're texting the people. are they telling the people who are afraid to drive themselves, we'll come get you and give you a ride? let's find out tomorrow.

>> that's a crucial part of it, the ability to be able to mobilize and get people to vote. you, john, have been talking to the voters for five months now, and it's been interesting watching your reporting, because you've been talking about how they say they've been really seeing old school campaigning ahead of these caucuses. in a day driven by tiktok and social media, a very different type of campaign. what can you tell us about the tragedy you have seen? >> look, they see the tv ads. they get videos on their phones every day. they get texts. even people voting for haley on desantis are getting texts from trump. that's a sign of the trump organization much better out there. but i was in covering campaigns when the internet was a baby, when there was no such thing as social media. a lot of direct mail. we used to go to evangelical churches on the sunday before iowa to see what people put under the windshields of cars. that's when you did your attack piece. people come out of church and see michael dukakis this or bob dole that, and this is a

negative ad from desan trump ignored iowa, and nikki haley saying she has electability. she is the right candidate to take on joe biden. there is tv. there is digital. but there is also some good old school direct mail. >> old school direct mail. it's nice to see it. john king, thank you. and we'll of course see you tomorrow. next, nikki haley picking up big endorsement tonight from a popular former republican governor who says she is the one with the momentum. our dana bash just spoke to haley in iowa and will be live from des moines after this. plus, new pictures from iowa where it is, you talk about the numbers, let's give you this stat, colder than the north poll. so which candidate benefits most from what you're looking at in your screen?

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and welcome back to the special edition of "outfront" countdown to iowa. just in, our dana bash spoke one-on-one with nikki haley. haley has been feeling momentum going boo the iowa caucuses going into the iowa caucuses tomorrow night? will it be enough? will it turn out? will it put a dent in trump's massive lead? i want to get straight to dana. you had a chance to talk to

governor haley, and you talked to her about a big endorsement tonight. marco rubio, who she endorsed in 2016 but now is endorsing trump. talk to me about what she said to you about that. >> well, it was really interesting, erin. i was in ames, iowa, where she had one of many events that she is doing today. she had just come off talking about the need to move on, the need for a new generation, a lot of what she told you in that town hall a couple of weeks ago and then got the news about marco rubio. i asked her about that. also what donald trump had said about her at a rally where i was just before where he said that she is not tough enough to be president. listen to both. >> i was with you in 2016 in south carolina when you endorsed marco rubio. i don't know if you just heard he endorsed former president

trump. is that disappointing? >> i mean, look, this is where they do that. i don't care as much about elected officials endorsing as i care about the voters' endorsement. i've never really cared for. i don't line up a bunch of endorsements to do that. i want to win the people's vote. because at the end of the day, they're the ones that i'm going to be serving. they're the ones i'm going to be working for. there's are the ones i'm going to be fighting for. i don't care about the rest. >> larry hogan endorsed you. is that something you welcome? >> if anybody wants to, we'll take it. it's not something i seek. i want people to know i'm going to go into this. i'm going to over communicate. i'm going the tell them everything i know as president and i'm going fight every day to make them proud. that's what i did as ambassador, as governor. that's what i'll do as president. >> donald trump says among other things you're not tough enough to be president. how do you interpret that? >> i find it comical, because when i was at the u.n., he always used to tell people, don't mess with her, she is tough. i was tough as a governor. whether it was like passing the toughest illegal immigration law in the country, whether it was taking on my own legislature when i made them start to record

their votes on the record, whether it was at the u.n. with russia, china, and iran. everybody that has ever worked for me or with me, no one ever questions my toughness. he is saying this because now he knows he is in trouble. now he knows this is becoming a two-person race. so i know that he knows the truth. it doesn't bother me at all. >> so, erin, you saw her trying to brush off that criticism, which was more robust in the former president's rally today than we've seen maybe in recent days. and that really has been her m.o. as we've seen time and time again, to harness the notion that when people are attacking her, it means that she is winning, and that's why they're going after her. but also to sidestep a little bit of the criticism beyond what she's already done when it comes to the former president, her former boss, when she was u.n. ambassador. erin? >> dana, thank you very much. really illuminating having this conversation with nikki haley.

jeff, i mean, you know, you having been on a campaign trail. i can't imagine what kind of fumes these individuals are running on, but specifically nikki haley and ron desantis who really have been doing the groundwork out there, because trump, obviously, has been in the courtroom. and so what do you make of that response? i don't think she was aware of the marco rubio thing before dana told her. >> look, nikki is crushing it. 2024 is another chapter of opposite day. donald trump gets indicted. he goes up in the polls. nikki haley is crushing it. she is gaining momentum. she is doing everything the history books tell us i don't have to do to win iowa or to be strong or be your party's nominee. foreign policy is an absolute must to be on your resume. and nikki haley's got it. she has a strong governorship behind her in a southern state. she's killing it. but in opposite day you have somebody like marco rubio who i actually supported early in the last cycle, and to see him come out, look, i think we're seeing what people are made out of

right now. do you want to be a professional politician or do you want to be an american? and if you want to be a professional politician, and you're a republican, then you get in line, you hold your nose and say donald trump is the best, and then you go home and tell everybody you know that you can't stand him, because that's what's happening all across the country. >> totally. >> alice, what do you say to that? >> totally. >> this little marco? right, like, that's where we are? >> yeah. so many are fall -- >> obviously everyone knows that's what trump called him. >> exactly. >> amongst many names he called other people. look, of the establishment republicans are falling in line behind donald trump. we're seeing that across the board. and that is unfortunate. but to jeff's terms of nikki haley having momentum, we're seeing she's gaining in the polls. this des moines register poll, she has gone up and others have

not. and she also has money. americans for prosperity putting a lot of money for her to put the ads on the air. the thing that bodes well for her is we have all been talking about iowa. it's so important. iowa is the first in the nation test. but it is not reflective of the nation. and she understands moving into new hampshire, she is appealing to the people of new hampshire. she is one that's more moderate and looking at the live free or die state, she also appeals to the people of south carolina. and hopefully can carry that on into the other states as we lead into super tuesday. she has a ground game or a message that resonates past iowa. so i think that will be beneficial. >> to that point, though, basil, i am curious when you look in this poll, yes, she's the only one that went up, and desantis and trump went down, only 40% of voters say they are enthusiastic about voting for her. that is a stark contrast to desantis and trump. you much, much higher enthusiasm numbers. there is weakness there. does that set the possible stage for however one would define it, an underperformance that could influence this whole momentum narrative? >> i think the underperformance is possible. one thing that she does have

that in some ways bodes in her favor is that she might be a better general election candidate, if she can ever actually make that argument. look, in that same poll, she is doing very well among independents. and that says a lot about -- when you're a democrat and you're looking at that race and saying that a lot of these contests around the country are going to be won on the margins, and independents are very critical to this. if they were a different kind of candidate, and if she could say the word "slavery," if she could find a way to talk differently about what happened when she was presiding over the confederate flag coming down and didn't cow down too much early on to the maga republicans, i think she would have set herself up to be a better general election candidate.

right now she is doing better among independents, but i don't know if she'll ever get to a point to make that argument. >> well, she's got -- remember, as the poll shows, a big portion of her support is democrats who plan to caucus tomorrow, and independents. and i think that goes to this, erin, your question about intensity and enthusiasm. because if you're a democrat, 40 below? not so sure i'm going risk anything. john's point too about older voters. here is what is really important to keep an eye tomorrow, and that is the evangelical vote. what we've seen, two things. evangelical vote critical to republican victory in november. those voters, as we know have said, they see donald trump as the person who is fighting for them. every time he gets attacked, that's who -- jeff and i talked about this, and unfortunately, his support hardens. but we're starting to see a little bit of a split in iowa with evangelical supporters who are supporting desantis. and he has the support of a very significant evangelical leader. so do we see a split in the evangelical vote? that's obviously something nikki haley hasn't been following, but it will matter again in south carolina, and it will matter again in the super tuesday states. >> and margaret, it is amaze

-- it's amazing when you look at the polls, there's one where haley was up 17% over biden, hypothetically, the most recent is 8 points. but the same one where trump and biden, 2%, checking here, well within the margin of error. it is that independence and we'll be very curious to see how many people register as democrats to come into register as republicans tomorrow. >> i'm looking for early texting data to tell me how many people showed up at the west branch city hall. >> iowa. >> west branch, iowa. >> i'm with jeff in the sense that i desperately want somebody who is not trump. and particularly somebody like nikki haley, who could real by be a change agent at a national level, bringing a new generation of people into the republican party which is something that i've been working for 15 years. but the reality is what i'm seeing is the electability argument at the primary level especially in iowa isn't actually getting traction because people are looking at donald trump versus joe biden, and they actually see trump as stronger, and they see biden because they're listening to all this conservative media that shows biden is old and slow and geriatric.

they think actually trump is the stronger electorate. that's what's happening at the grassroots level in iowa right now. so the electability argument isn't playing as well as it should. >> but the polls are what the polls are. donald trump lied in his speech a second ago where he asked people to die to vote for him. but nikki haley in poll after poll shows the more competitive candidate. if that's what you're looking for that, is a strong argument. we'll see how independents show up. we'll see what the evangelicals do. but i think it's a mistake to consider this a done deal. marco rubio endorsing trump after all those insults, that's a profile in cowardness. that's what we have come to expect from republicans that back donald trump. >> even evangelicals will admit they're voting for donald trump at some point in time. >> all thank you very much. iowa in the deep freeze. windchill factor 31 below. how does this effect turnout in

a state that says they are so used to winters. plus, a desantis team working late into tonight to figure out how to get voters to caucus sites tomorrow night. how to literally show up and drive them there. our ioiowa conservrvative radidw hahas new repoporting on t the desantis g game plan.. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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all right. tonight iowa gripped by an historic storm. record low temperatures that are guaranteed to affect tomorrow's caucuses one way or another. and right now with the windchill in iowa, it feels like a negative 28, which is colder than alaska right now. whether this cold makes people want to stay inside, well, of course, getting people to turn out and go out in the cold, in the dark, is what happens. that's what iowa caucuses are all about tomorrow night. the chair of the iowa republican party saying a few moments ago that he still expects a, quote, robust turnout. elisa raffa is out in front of the cnn center. this is perhaps the most important report of the night when it comes to tomorrow, right? this really is about the weather. what do you see it look like tomorrow night? >> we're not going to break zero as we go through the next couple of days in iowa. iowa has had temperatures below zero since yesterday afternoon. still sitting at 11 degrees below zero right now in des moines, with windchills as cold

as 30 to 35 degrees below zero. windchill warnings in effect for most of the state because the frostbite times are so low. here is a look at some of the temperatures and windchills monday evening as people might be headed out to some of these caucus events. you can see the temperatures for the most part are 5 to 10 degrees below zero. windchills 30 to 35 degrees below zero. when you have windchills that cold, you're talking about frostbite can happen in 20 minutes or less. so that's dangerous because those frostbite times are so so low. and when you look at there is at a lot of talk, iowans have had cold. yes, they have. you look at the last caucus events, most have been in the 30s and 40s you. had 2004 at 16 degrees. but that high temperature on monday will probably only get to minus 4 degrees. that would be the coldest caucus event that iowa has ever seen. and, again, it's 30 degrees below average. iowa gets cold, but not this cold. 30 degrees below average. a cold snap coming the first of

the season for them so far. iowa is in the midst of their warmest winter on record so far. so it's a shock to the system. they haven't had cold like this in quite some time. >> pretty amazing, such a warm winter, and just in these couple days. you know, fascinating. all right. thanks so much. and next, first it was ron desantis. >> we're going win iowa. >> we're going to win iowa. >> we're going win iowa. >> things have changed. now just hours before the caucuses, it's this. >> we're going to do well. i like being underestimated. >> desantis is the candidate perhaps with the most to lose tomorrow. so what does he have to do to be seen as a winner? plus nikki haley stepping up her attacks on trump. is the cririticism, ththough, t little t too late?

>> tonight, ron desantis is inhaling his campaign in iowa just hours before the caucuses begin and arguing that the ground game will leave no stone unturned . >> we have built a great army here. tomorrow will be really fun for us. we will get everywhere we can between now and monday night. we feel good about all the energy that we are seeing. >> now from iowa our senior editor from the atlantic. with the popular conservative radio host and the former state senator who has his finger on iowa politics. many of the cadets appear frequently on your show. i was glad i saw you last week.

and it was much warmer. it was positively balmy compared to now. okay, let's talk about ron desantis. >> it was the warmest winter here and record the man here we are. ron desantis says he built a great army on the ground in iowa. what is fascinating is i know you showed up today with the turnout training session last night for ron desantis at a hotel bar. what is their game plan and what are they ready to do? >> it was amazing to talk to them after they had the training. the game plan was to go doorknocking. there were a bunch of people here from around the country including texas and florida and welcoming the minus six when show. some of them were telling us

they would call iowans on the phone instead. but some hardy souls will get out there and knock on doors for ron desantis. one thing i found interesting is that the desantis campaign was hoping that the trump supporters would get complacent because poll after poll has him up for 30 points and maybe it's too cold for the trump supporters to get out tomorrow night and desantis pulls the surprise. that was the message to the desantis turnout crew to get them fired up and out there. >> important to say that there there. they're coming from florida and texas and they have passion on their team. but because he had the break down game and was going to county after county and promising victory. here he is. >> we are going to win iowa. >> and now he is not talking

about winning but he's changing the expectation game and saying this. >> we will do well on monday. >> i like being underestimated. >> the change could not be anymore clear. chosen acceptance of not winning. but what is doing well for ron desantis? >> i don't think there is a doing well short of winning or shocking us within coming within single digits of donald trump. the expectations is the reality that he put all of his eggs in the basket. he visited all 99 counties and he has built an impressive organization and he had a favorable electorate for his message. the problem is that the aught audience for the message has never been nearly as large as the expected them. they basically pitch themselves to the slice of republican voters who want trump is him without

trump. desantis was complaining last week that the media says he has not made a case against trump when he has. and in fact he has that you can no longer trust trump to launch the america first agenda. we will see this is a message that will appeal to a relatively thin slice of the republican electorate. it left a lot of room for nikki haley and those who ar e disaffected and she too me see that if she does not expand with what she sees tomorrow and quickly, her runway could run up pretty quickly as well. >> what do you see happening here? >> i see trump winning big and desantis coming in second because the operation. i think nikki haley has to be the most worried about the record cold we will have during the iowa caucus. because she has the less

enthusiastic supporters in iowa and is the folks that will say, i will make some chilean stay home tonight. >> what is your number one to watch ? >> i would say ditto for that analysis. nikki haley is problem here is she has the voters most disaffected from the trump party and they may think it's not worth coming out on a night that is so difficult. she is consolidating that part of the party. you can lose focus on the big picture but trump is way ahead and one of thehem hahas to make a stroronger argumument than th haveve so far toto change the dynamic. >> thanknk you both h very mucu i knknow whoho w will be there braving g the cold. . and our spspecial coverage of t iowa cauaucuses contntinues afa this. .