. iowa prepares for tomorrow's caucuses, the city of perry is mourning the loss of a principal who acted selflessly during a school shooting when put himself in harm's way when he was shot multiple times, his daughter said he tried to talk to the shooter that gave students time to escape the cafeteria. he worked for the school district for two decades, he wife wrote, he fought hard and gave us 10 days that we will treasure forever. also killed in the january 4th shooting was 11-year-old boy, a

6th grader. the news continues . good evening. here in new york alongside abby phillips welcome to our special coverage of the countdown to iowa. this is it. we are hours away now from the nation's first nominating contest, the stakes may be high but the temperature, certainly is not. it is below 0 in iowa right now on this final full day of campaigning for the republican presidential field. even with donald trump's commanding lead in the latest poll out just last night, the 48% of support from likely caucusgoers is pushing hard for turnout.. >> we are up in iowa, we are really up big. the higher we are up, the higher we go, the better a signal. we send a good signal to new hampshire, the better signal we

send in november that we are taking our country back t. is really important. you got to get out and vote. >> nikki haley and ron desantis is delivering their closing messages to voters, how they vote tomorrow is a crucial question with haley trying to make it a 2-person race between herself and donald trump and desantis, of course, looking at a tough road ahead and maybe tough decisions to make if, in fact, he comes in third. it has been 11 months and it comes down to tomorrow. >> if you will join with us. if you will bring friends and family with you when you do it. i promise you our best days are yet to come. >> tomorrow will be fun for us. i like being under estimated. i like being the underdog, i think that is better. >> if history is any indicator, anything can happen in iowa

especially the freezing weather playing a huge role in the last 24 hours. there is new last-minute uncertainty about who is going to show up tomorrow in these frigid temperatures, how many of them and how they will get there. we have team coverage on this election eve. we go to des moines following all of the campaign. john king is at the magic wall punching the numbers, chad meyers is in the cnn weather center. you were out in the elements, that is a nice way of putting it, but, you were with several of the candidates including nikki haley. what is she saying right now? as trump has turned up the heat on her in these last 24 hours. >> well, i was at that trump event where she, where he went after nikki haley. he did a lot of things at that event which i am sure you will talk about throughout the hour. one of the things he did was really step up what he was

saying about her and part of his attack was that she is just not tough enough to be president of the united states. i did catch up with her shortly after in iowa and asked her about that. >> donald trump among other things says you are not tough enough to be president, how do you interpret that? >> i find it comical. when i was at the u.n. he used to say, don't mess with her she is tough. he is saying it because he is in trouble and it is becoming a two-person race. i know he knows the truth. it does not bother me at all. >> another sort of event that happened that ripped around these campaigns was the endorsement that donald trump got from marco rubio his former opponent in 2016 and the governor excuse me the senator

of florida despite the fact that the governor is in the race. and i should add that nikki haley endorsed marco rubio back in 2016. i was there at that event. i asked her about that, about her reaction to it and she brushed it off and says the endorsements she is looking for are those from the voters. >> of course, marco rubio from the home state of ron desantis as well. speaking of those voters what are you hearing from them on this election eve? >> you know, there are still undecided voters, believe it or not. and then there are some who are completely and totally intent on voting for those who they went to see. that is especially true, abby, at the trump event that i was at. i mean, you know, you covered donald trump, i covered donald

trump in the past. we saw firsthand people support him. and that is still very, very much at play here. i talked to somebody at his event who is going to be a caucus captain tomorrow night and listen to the way she described why she supports donald trump. >> is there anything that he could do that would make you walk away from him as a supporter? >> i would not have any idea what possibly he could do to make me walk away. no. i mean if he, you know, did something bad. i have not seen anything bad. the lord is with him, carrying him through this journey. >> so, you see that, you hear that, and i heard versions of that over and over and over again when it came to the

people who are going to go out in caucus for donald trump. and, you know in 2016 i was here, he lost slightly to ted cruise, before the caucuses he was ahead in the polls. one of the big differences between then and now the trump campaign had no organization which really matters here in iowa back then. now they do, they have been much more aggressive. i talked to another voter who said in 2016 she just went and caucused for trump because she liked him. she did not hear from anybody in the campaign. this time around she is hearing from the campaign and people who are associated with the trump campaign over and over again. he certainly needs that given where he is in the polls. even though he is ahead they are concerned. he is officially concerned, i am told. about complaisancey and of course he is concerned about the weather. >> of course, what you just heard from that voter is backed up by the latest polling that

we got about the enthous yism. we have cnn chief national correspondent. john, i think the big question is we are getting the new poll numbers in. where things stand with the iowa caucuses. >> look, this is my 10th presidential campaign. covered a lot of the iowa caucuses, it sometimes surprises us. the polls are overwhelming, let's bring up the poll and show it over the last five months, forgive me for turning my back. if you go back, reliable poll, you go back five months ago. former president trump was at 42%, up to 51. he is at 48%. nikki haley has gone from 6 up to 20. she can say over the last five months i am going up. desantis, down a little bit. 19 down to 16% now. yes, ted cruz was behind and beat donald trump in 2016. yes, rick was behind and passed

mitt romney but the lead was nothing like that. it was not 28 points. it was not insurmountable but it would shock the world if somehow trump did not win. the question would be what. you heard, as you were talking about donald trump says make sure you get out there and vote. he says go out and vote even if you are sick. i need you to vote. they were so confident. haley movement, not dramatic, not close to trump. but people supporting haley spent $8 million that is her campaign and super packs, pro desantis, $6 million. trump people have not spent that much $3.6. they entered the year thinking we got this and now in the last couple of days they are smart. they are well organized. the president said do not get complains ant. if you complaisant, if you are cold, we will give you a ride. >> not just getting people out,

it speaks to voter enthusiasm. when you look at the numbers what are you seeing about which candidate here has the most enthusiastic supporters? it could matter if the weather is as bad as we are predicting it is going to be to motivate people to leave their homes to go out to their school gym to caucus. >> without a doubt. i will show you where people live. total population, the larger the circle the more population. nicky hail segoing to surprise us it will be the suburbs. those people don't have to drive as far, right? these small rural counties, that is where trump does well. 15-20, maybe more miles to go to their caucus site. do they do that in the snow? that is where the organization matters and that is where enthusiasm matters. look, i don't need to tell the two of you, a lot of time

covering trump, a lot of time, his people tend to be locked in. look at this. are you extremely enthusiastic for your candidate? only thirty nine% of haley supporters said that. more moderate, first time caucusgoers that has been trumps, trump card, forget the pun, it is intentional. his people tend to be locked in. we will see if that helps on a very, very, very cold day tomorrow. >> thank you for that. it could make a difference. as we mentioned, brutally cold weather will be the big wild card for turnout tomorrow. the caucus, we go to the severe weather center tracking the forecast. it has been, i can not imagine the cold happening right now in iowa. what more can people expect tomorrow? >> again, tonight, a very cold night. it does not get above freezing and does not get above 0 for the entire state tomorrow. that means pipes could be

breaking, that means other things are going to be going wrong in homes around iowa. you talk about it all of the time about trying to keep your pipes moving. make sure that under the cabinet the cabinet doors are open so the heat can go under the sink. even right now, the air temperature, the thermometer is 13 degrees below 0 in des moines. at least it is not blowing around. if it is one good thing there will be no snow and not a blizzard out there. but we do know in 2004 there was a big drop in the population density that went to these poll presidency, and it was 16. tomorrow, the high will be minus 4. 20 degrees colder than upon when we know there was a problem with populations going to the polls. they say wait, it is just iowa, just cold all of the time. no, minus 4 is 30 degrees

colder than you should be. this is cold on animals, it is cold on people, and can in some places dangerous. fairbanks alaska will be 9. des moines is minus 4, 13 degrees warmer in fairbanks, something else that we have not assessed is that so far, up to this date, we have had the warmest winter on record in iowa. animals are not used to it. if it is winter i like it. but then you get smacked in the face of 13 degrees and a windchill of minus 30 you will not be ready. >> it is a no thank you for me. thank you very much. let's bring in our panel who is warm inside with us and not in iowa. scott, i have been hearing from a lot of trump's campaign people, people, they are worried about turnout tomorrow. they are concerned that if there is not a huge turnout he will not have the resounding victory they are looking for. what is the concern about what it could look like?

>> it is an expectations game. polling, 48 in the registered poll, emerson survey, had him at 55, and cbs survey nationally he is at 69%. so, sort of unheard of the idea that the party would not nominate someone higher nationally. but if it comes under what they are forecasting it provides a narrative for haley or desantis to say look. and god can believe. so, they have been trying to lower expectations the biggest win, 12.8%. they will spend anything above that norm as a historic victory. the reality is, they need to beat 20 plus to keep up where the polling set expectations >> don't you think, though, trump benefits the most in these kind of weather? given what the polls say about enthusiasm? look at the numbers, we were just talking about them.

88% of iowa voters who would support trump are extremely enthusiastic, nikki haley is down there at 39%. that is why they were stunned by how the enthusiasm was so low but the support is second >> i know, a number of warning signs in that. once you are passed the top line that was good for her, she jumped into second place. i mean her favorable rating declined. 2-1 in august. just about even in this poll. the enthusiasm number that you mentioned. half of her support is from democrats and independence. and, it seems to me that to show up as a caucus and sit there for an hour or two and listen to republicans make speeches to cast a ballot on a, with a windchill of 40 degrees below outside. it seems like a stretch. you know, deantis and trump each of their support is like 80% made up of republicans.

there are a lot of things that would worry me if i were haley in this. we have two races going on. trump versus expectations and desantsis. those are the two -- desantis. those are two things. today, alone, he was saying she is too liberal. the same backers as president bid pen, talking about the people who funded her campaign. claiming wrongly, that she sides with the democrats on immigration. and one of his aligned packs spent $4.5 million against her in the final stretch. here is the problem that donald trump could run into. everyone here agrees he is going to win tomorrow, but such a commanding lead, it is easy to say other folks will show up. that might be a bigger measure than enthusiasm in the poll. nikki haley was interesting is many of the second choice people that are supporting nikki haley are joe biden. i wonder if voting for change

for something other than trump, other than the status quo could be a bigger motivator. >> that could be. >> i was going to say donald trump also put a lot of energy in first time caucusgoers while this is when you really hope the infrastructure that they did try, they did build this year unlike in 2016 actually pays off. you know, first time voters it usually takes seven touches for them to leave their house, go to the polls and vote. and that is when it is 45 degrees out. you better hope the staff that you have, volunteers that you have will be able to touch those folks and convince them to show up. if you are looking for a first time caucus voter, you can love trump, but negative 40 windchill i don't know what that feels like. i don't want to know >> this poll, he was winning first time caucusgoers but the next person was haley at 14, i

think. so, he is doing pretty well with the first time caucusgoers. that is their focus. not people who are uninitiated. they are going, trump voters not participated in caucuses before, the operation is focused on this for months. we will see how it works in these ridiculous temperatures. >> i will take the other side of this. we have seen people show up for trump rallies. you know, you were there. hot, cold, rainy. that is just to show up and watch something. now, now with vindication at hand, their first chance to show up and actually do something. i think come hell or high water they are going to show up. >> we will have massive attendance and oftentimes voters do not show up. he wases in iowa today. i assume tomorrow. it is much more motivating if

you get to see the man of donald trump than deal with the caucus. >> one of the things that he has done in this campaign, though, is, i mean, trump may be sort of wackier than ever in some ways but the organization is more rational than ever. they ran this race the way, you know, we would of, others would have, they had a theory of the case, they have been hammering away. >> that is a high complement. >> i like that, well conceived strategies. we will see. my chair could be sinking tomorrow. [ laughter ] >> can we listen to the sound bite from trump today where he was speaking about getting turnout, people getting them to come out. this is what he told supporters. >> you must go caucus tomorrow, very first step, you got to do

it. you got to get out. you can't sit at home. if you are sick as a dog, even if you vote and then pass away it is worth it. if you are sick, if you are sick, darling i don't think -- get up, get up! >> oh, boy. how selfish, right? iowa voters know how important this is. they actually know all eye are on them right now. this is a choice if you want to get rid of donald trump or don't. for all of those voters they may have just as much emotion to show up as well. >> when i look inside of the numbers for that right away. and talk about the organization, i agree trump has the intensity and organization he has had in three tries. it is desantis. his organization could push him. >> he can find a few points there that they are not seeing showing up. >> we will see if it happens, they are hoping so. everyone is sticking around.

we have lots more to discuss with the panel. votersville to brave the freezing temperatures, the question is, will there be any surprises? the head of iowa's republican party is herere withth his prpredictions s right afteter a break

. life-threatening windchills, icy roads, just a few things that are facing iowaians as they prepare to

caucus tomorrow as we have been warning. the coldest caucus night in history. iowaians are a tough bunch. they are not scared of snow or cold. joining me now is jeff, chairman of the republican party in iowa who i am sure is keeping an eye on the weather. we know you are tough in iowa, are you worried about the effects that this weather could have on turnout tomorrow? >> well, i mean, i don't know if we will have a record turnout. we have enthusiasm and organization abilities of these campaigns, looked like we were in an environment to shoot for that 186,000. i don't know if we will get there. i really do believe it will be robust. today was clear, the ice that we are going to have another 24 hours for the snowplows to get out. does not look like whiteout or blizzard. we are focused on the temperature. there will be multiple, multiple times where it is below 0 out here in iowa.

we are used to that and to the precautions that you take. i honestly believe that we are going to have a robust turnout. from my perspective. i will let the rnc know what iowaians did and we need to be the first in the nation again. that will be one of my pieces of evidence i am hoping they will not let me down, i don't think they will. >> we will see about that. i do have a question about that. on the weather today, kay henderson, obviously a veteran of the state, she notes in reporting tonight, 28 counties, the 28 counts only have one location to go and caucus. it could mean a long drive for those folks. i understand the sites were decided before the weather was that a good idea? are you worry about people's safety? >> well, ultimately, ultimately that is the decision of each one of the county committees as

a republican party of iowa we agraigate it. if you have a super site or not, we have one county down on the missouri border that has i believe over 13 different sites. and, so, as long as there is not snow on those roads, iowaians know the precautions and how to handle that. we are giving advice to all of the chairsment make sure the lines are inside as they are moving through, obviously people can register at that particular site to be a republican, they will have to show voter id and such. i feel comfortable with where we are going right now. remember, this is iowa winter. in the context of that this is not anything that these individuals have not faced over and over and over again. >> how many first time caucusgoers are you hearing from, is it a bunch? >> yeah, it really is. you know, mostly just information but i was surprised. i am neutral in this caucus. i am bound by the republican

party of iowa constitution to be neutral. we have an even playing field. and i went to almost all of the candidates events the most recent events i think i have been to three events where they asked new caucusgoers to raise their hand. i have been amazed at how many are raising their hand. they are enthusiastic. i talked to some when they left. my job after the caucus is through. reaching out to them, just to know if they are a democrat, independent or republicans hibernating for awhile. let them know there is a place for them in the party. the next role is to keep them. >> one thing that iowa is known for, it is known as the full grass league. going to all of the 99 counties some, try, some do not attempt it. ron desantis is one of those that has done it. he talked about it a lot. he secured the endorsement of your state's governor here and

really put in the work on the ground. i wonder what it is as about the value of retail campaigning in iowa if that does not pay off for him tomorrow. >> well, going to the 99 county tour physically, that certainly shows iowaians you are not taking their votes for granted. at the same time you are able to reach out to all 99 of those counties if you go to one and surrounded by 4 or 5. you will reach the activists in those areas. it is not over until it is over. tomorrow night we very well see that the organizational structure that is able to put together for this. as you, i am sure as you know, this caucus is just as much about organizational structure as it is personality context. >> yeah. >> so i think you are going to see some improved campaigns especially from 2016. >> you are not worry about backlash if trump is the

nominee because your state's governor endorsed desantis? he does not let kim reynolds at his events or anything like that. are you worried he will try to move iowa from being first? >> i don't think so. i mean, ultimately what matters, i don't want to speak for the past president of the united states and possibly future, we will see who wins the nomination but i really think he is going to look at what the people of the state of iowa believe. and kim reynolds did set the tone. because she endorsed does not mean that all are not welcome here. and the party structure. those of us that are running this caucus had been neutral running across the board. but of all of the things that i have to worry about that is not one that i am concerned with >> jeff you have a lot going on for the next 24 hours, thank you for taking the time. >> thanks for your interest in iowa. >> of course. and on the eve of those sub- zero caucuses that are going to happen there was another

endorsement, another one for nikki haley today. the question is, does it make a dent in what it has been trump's domination in this race? we will talk about that, next

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. nikki haley picked up a big name republican endorsement from larry hog an. >> nikki haley is a strong nominee. time for the party to get behind nikki haley. >> he was considering a possible third party run to stop donald trump. my next guest is now supporting nikki haley, former texas congressman. thank you for joining us. i wonder, how much do you think that endorsement from larry hogan means to nikki haley at this point? >> it is just one more example of the momentum that ambassador haley has been building for the last 11 months the fact that you have the governor, you

know, governor of new hampshire endorsing her. you have groups like persons for prosperity. you have an amazing ground game. it is important. the fact that she has had so many small doll small dollar donors, she will pick up delegates in tomorrow in iowa what and take that momentum into new hampshire where she has a great shot of being able to shock folks. i think in the earlier segment the conversation earlier talking about how the motivation of some of the voters. many voters will go to the polls tomorrow in iowa and say hay do i want four more years of chaos, concerns of health care for me, my aging parents and children. i am worried about a war in the middle east and europe and who is the best person to elect to make sure that we have a strong

america and in my opinion, that is nikki haley. does nikki haley believe that she can win? >> the team knows pick up delegates, you know, trump said he was going to win by 60 points and then he said it will be by 50 points. if he gets under 50% then that, that is a hit in the arm. we have to remember four years ago donald trump had 99.5% of the vote in iowa. and, so, this is about picking up momentum, being, you know, recent polling coming out and showing that nikki haley is surging in iowa. the fact that could be one of the biggest mistakes ron

desantis made, going to 99 counties, the more they learn about him the less likely they will vote for him >> can we talk about that polling? >> can we talk about that polling that you just mentioned? it shows a majority of haley supporters are, at best, mildly enthusiastic about turning out for the caucuses tomorrow. that is really far below the others in this race. donald trump and desantis. how concerned are you about those numbers? and if people in this kind of weather will just decide to stay home? >> so, first off, all of the iowaians going out to vote thank you for doing your civic duty in a tough environment. i was in the mountains for a month negative 20 and it was uncomfortable. what they are going in tomorrow is difficult. this enthusiasm, gap that people are talking about that number is really better used in

general elections against democrats and republicans. the fact a voter will not go out in a cold but will still go out, i don't know if it is a concern. teams, organized, they will continue to do this in iowa. it is not a concern. >> thanks for joining us tonight. >> always a pleasure. for the first time ever there is a candidate on the ballot facing charges and some iowa voters that a trump conviction would make them more likely to support him. surprising new poll numbers we will discuss to duckduckgo on all your devie

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. a number just in that is worth looking at the latest iowa poll that came out last night just before the caucuses. it shows republican caucusgoers would not shy away from voting for trump in the general election even if he were

convicted. here is what the numbers found, 61% of likely republican caucusgoers say potential conviction does not matter in determining their support for him. i guess, maybe, it is nots that surprising we just heard from the governor saying he would vote for him. >> i think he is following the numbers. i think this is, i think it is unfortunate that he is but, this is the prevailing view among republicans. i mean, everybody has to get their arms around the fact that donald trump has a very strong base in this party and he has, as he often does, he has taken that story and he has turn today and turned these indictments into an emblem of his potency and the deviousness. a

lot of people bought that. it is battery packs for him in the republican primary. when he gets into a general election maybe a different story. but, these numbers do not shock me. >> yeah, i mean, 21% say it does not matter. 19% saying it will make them more likely to support him. that is more than the people that is a it will make it less likely. we talk a lot about, you know, who will get the chris christie vote. does it matter? if this is what the landscape is? >> listen, think of it this way. average voter is thinking about paying bills, sending their kids to college, the state of economy. they look to their elected leaders to give them guidance on a former president is indicted i will not read through an indictment. when every one of the top tier running against trump said it is a witch-hunt, state working against them. signal to voters it is not legitimate that i need to worry about with the exception of chris christie no one was

saying no he mishandled classified documents, this is legitimate. no, we saw what happened on january 6th it is legitimate. all defending trump when it came down. >> not just that, he has senators even today endorsing him. people who actually are elected officials who have the platform to say, to say no, we could walk away from this. we heard a voter earlier who said the lord is with donald trump he has done nothing wrong. well . >> it was not just senators that endorsed him today. it was marco rubio who we all remember from 2016 in a pitched battle with trump which he had unkind things to say about donald trump and who supported him in that was nikki haley. yes. then the governor north carolina. you know the history of this >> yes. >> more than a handful of jeb

bush people took note of the rubio endorsement. >> no kidding. on this poll, i will give you what the republicans are talking about today. they are saying, can you blame them? look at what willis is doing, hoiring her boyfriend, putting him on the payroll, unqualified prosecutor going on vacations with them and going and explaining all of that this weekend. yes, i agree with everything said here, he has a strong base and whatever, but things have happened in these investigations that have given him the tow hole he needs to spin those stories and to the battery packs or the rocket fuel thank you are talking about. one is happening right now in georgia. and, you know, as you all pointed out he has the best campaign he has had in three tries. when stuff like this happens their ability to inject that into the republican bloodstream it is incredible. >> i don't know. he was, he was getting the

benefit of it before willises story. so, that may be helpful. that is not why. people are living their lives and they care about their lives and they also believe that trump is some economic, you know, maestro and that is another thing and they are saying that is more important to me than this stuff. >> yeah, we will see what president biden makes of that. he thinks trump will be the nominee. stick around ahead here for us, looking deeper into what the legal troubles look like. you heard scott mention what was happening in georgia. we have it all laid out. how the court calendar will collide with that campaign on trump road to try to get the nomination, once again. that is next

it will be on the campaign trail but also the courtroom, you to break down the unprecedented array of legal

challenges, the current front ritter is facing is the guru, cnn senior legal analyst, ellie, the calendar is the big thing, the calendar the court dates, what is a look like a >> we've never seen anything quite like this. the highest dates, four pending criminal charges, two of them brought by the doj special counsel jack smith, relating to donald trump's effort to steal the 2020 election and the other related to classified documents and state-level cases, one in manhattan related to hush money payments to stormy daniels and in fulton county, georgia for election subversion. let's have fun with the calendar. trials, first of all, jack smith's doj case starts march 4, manhattan hush money case is scheduled for march 25, they're both the same time, that's impossible, one of them will have to give way, jack smith's other case scheduled for may 20

forget about the fulton county case, we don't have a trial date, what happened for the election, november 5, were not going to have a trial in october november, that's too close, the republican convention is july 15 and the day after jack smith's case is supposed to start on super tuesday, donald trump has to be physically in the courtroom for these cases, he can pick and choose on the civil cases but he will be off the campaign trail for two months or so for these . >> are already giving the id. -- me anxiety. the question about on the ballot or >> the 14th amendment say that anyone who engages in insurrection is out, the supreme court is taking the colorado case, the oral argument in the supreme court, which they will be able to listen to, february 8, you can tell when they will rule, march 5 is super tuesday, 16 states including colorado and maine, you will bet they will want to

clarify before super tuesday. sticker the civil lawsuits he's facing, what is the length gave? >> civil fraud trial and we heard closing arguments, we will get a ruling on that any day now, the second trial, e jean carroll, and he has been sued by january 6 police officers, they will be playing alongside of criminal cases in the primary and caucuses in the election to >> busy busy. i would ask you about something , the fulton county da willis said today defended allegations of misconduct, take a listen. >> i appointed three special counsel, as it is my right to do, pay them at the same hourly rate, and they only attack one, some never see a black man is qualified no matter his achievements, what more can one achieve? the other two have never been judges, but nobody questions

their credentials. >> this is an allegation that she had an inappropriate relationship with one of her prosecutors, doesn't hold water>> we have to be careful the relationship allegation, donald trump is not even joined this motion, let's be careful, it is conspicuous to say the least to have the lead prosecutor are the biggest case the office has ever seen be a person who has never tried a felony criminal case, that should raise eyebrows about why this person. >> a lot more to learn there. >> thank you is always. life of the ground and i will. and details of what the candidates, are great reporters fanned out across the date and here about a ron desantis surrogate, he e wiwill be here right afteter this quiuick brea

good evening to you, here with caitlin collins in new york, thank you for joining our special coverage of the countdown to iowa. the first votes of the presidential election our hours away, anticipation is building and so are the icicles. subzero temperatures are said to make iowa's caucus is the coldest in history. >> iowans no cold, 11 pushing motorist to turnout tomorrow, clearly concerned about the effect it could have. nikki haley and ron desantis are hoping for momentum from the caucuses,

two-person race. that is what nikki's tate -- nikki haley's team is been saying, got to have a strong showing in iowa before that can be the case, if ron desantis does well she would've boxed them out like they're expecting they will be able to do. and one of the things they're watching for tomorrow is turnout. how excited their voters are, if they actually get to the polls, getting these temperatures, the cold temperatures, a lot of folks had only seen her for the first time tonight, some of them told me they were going to caucus tomorrow, we will have to watch and see. >> jessica kopp tracking the desantis campaign, what are we hearing jessica from him, especially given the poll numbers that actually, in a margin of error, has been third- place? >> reporter: everyone in his

orbit will say that they don't think that is indicative of what is going to happen tomorrow, the candidate has been saying as such publicly as well and there's a reason, they believe the grand cayman organization they have here, i was told by never back down, the super pac aligned with him, over 900,000 doors knocked in the state of iowa, they have a lot of touch point, captains and 99 counties, they believe that is going to help them tomorrow and they have committed , enthusiastic voters, and that will carry them very well and for tomorrow, especially with this x factor of the extremely dangerous the cold weather. ron desantis just wrapping up his last event here in iowa, what was interesting about we kind of noted was he went after former president donald trump, only mentioning nikki haley one time by name, but really going

after trump, listen to >> he is running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first, that's what he cares about, you could be the most worthless republican america, but if you kiss the ring he will say you are wonderful, you deserve a nominee that's going to put you first and not himself first. >> reporter: nobody has walks the line more than ron desantis, he's got all in, moving a lot of camping stuff here, 99 counties, millions of dollars, he wants to see a strong finish, he wants to emerge as the alternative to the former president. the question is, will that happen? can the organization that they have touted again and again take him through to where he wants to be as he heads into the next phase of the primary? we will find out tomorrow night. >> jessica dean, thank you.

former wisconsin governor scott walkerer, ran back in 2016 and now the president of the young america foundation, a conservative youth organization, thank you for joining us tonight. you have not endorsed, it is my understanding, but you have predicted in the washington times that trump will be the nominee after iowa. how do you think it works that trump can win a state like iowa , spending perhaps the least amount of time there? >> i think voters in that state like a lot of us across the country recognize that ron desantis has done a five his job as governor order, nikki haley did a great job in the united nations, but voters want somebody who is proven, with caucus voters, not only in new hampshire nevada but places like south salina,a, where form

president trump is likely to win big, a lot of voters say there are politicians and candidates who say all the right things but go to washington and failed to deliver, he may not always say or tweet the thing we do or the way we do, but a lot of voters say he gets the job done so far ahead some of your other republican governors, larry hogan and kristin and says there is one candidate who is best positioned, to be joe biden is notot donald trump.>> donald trump is simply the weakest candidate. >> you want to have the strongest possible nominee, polls show it is nikki haley, she 17 points ahead of joe biden and a toss up with trump and biden and ron desantis is losing. >> what do you say to that?

>> one, you have to believe the polls, but if you do, those polls probably are largely accurate, right now the person who attracts the most swing voters in hundred voters in the polls, key swing states, the one who pulls the best is nikki haley, the best out of the three is governor ron desantis. the problem for them as challengers is five of those six key battleground states, donald trump pulls ahead of joe biden. even though they might make the case of their little better, as it stands, we just saw last week, michigan a key battleground ski -- state, he is losing by 8 points, if the selection is a ref them on the economy, joe biden gets blown away, we saw before the first presidential primary debate, we did a poll of young people in the number 1 issue of college student is the economy. joe biden is really in trouble. >> what if it is a resident

aspect a referendum on donald trump, he could be a convicted felon in november and ron desantis says he thinks it will be a race about donald trump's 91 problems? >> again, you see though, in whole and poll and focus group, even people who are aligned with other candidates, nikki haley, asa fuller was talking about how they still believe -- a supporter was talking about it , saying they were politically motivated and campaign motivated, republican voters overall, even those are not necessarily voting in the primaries for the former president, i see it in swing states, they can see through this is see the nonsense. if he is tied up, conventional wisdom says it would be tougher campaigning, they know who joe biden is and donald trump, not

a matter of introducing the cells, in some regards the more time and attention plan joe biden instead of donald trump is probably a good thing for those of us who want to see someone other than joe biden in the white house. figure former governor scott walker, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> our panel is here, what you make of what he had to say there>> a big fan, issue is this, polling data, they will vote for donald trump if he is a convicted felon, a plurality, but it might be different after we see them on trial in his former chief of staff testified against him and likely vice president might hence, relitigating of the worst day of his presidency, january 6, the insurrection that we saw with her eyes, there might be that this now, fatigue with joe biden, people want to see some with her jersey in the white house but i could see those numbers precipitously drop by summer of this year.

>> i think there's a cohort of voters, summary couple that republicans and independent don't want biden, would vote for trump but would abandon ship if he is a convicted felon, but at the same time i was taken aback morning by the same scene is washington post survey, joe biden with 33% job approval, huge majority sa y he doesn't have the mental acuity right now to serve as president, let alone for second term. when i think about the impact of a conviction on donald trump's candidacy, i continue to think about the ongoing impact of dissatisfaction with biden and the belief that he simply not up to it and throw on the possible third-party candidates, which i think are hurting biden, you can see world where he gets convicted still wins. > it would be good for joe biden for trump to do well and dispatch the primary race and get on with the general election, so that he can bring

trump into sharp focus here, i think trump winning week after week and looking like the harlem globetrotters defeating the washington generals helped somewhat formidable, i think it's going to be a battle, knows that her run away with this, it's going to be a close race and is no doubt this is a liability if he gets convicted, which is why he is fighting so hard, obviously was to dispatch the diffuse present but he knows it's bad for him if the trial goes forward in washington, on the january 6 issue. >> that ron desantis that we just heard from, the final event tonight, hearing them talk about trump is a remarkable, he's the one who would not talk about them at the beginning, the closest he would get his talk about the policy differences, he shunned the mainstream media, what you make of his last approach not just trump of the

whole campaign as he is on the brink of everything. >> he decided to do it on christmas eve, too little, too late, us doors close on christmas eve, it's too late. ron desantis is never to be mini me donald trump, and they didn't want, they wanted from. if he is convicted if he is the nominee, people say that is a bridge too far, we have the january 6 hearings broadcast everywhere, we saw generates six live in action we've had indictment after indictment and his numbers have gone up, i'm not sure he conviction is going to do it. we once donald trump and let's get to the general.>> his numbers were better during that period of the january 6 hearings, relative to trump talk leslie one thing on your

point about the speech, that is a suburb of des moines, where nikki haley has strength and it's more a profile of her voter, the anti-trump voter, it is much as anything, he was talking to his audience there, because now it is like hand-to- hand combat, that may have something to do with what he emphasized that, at that particular event or >> the other person probably wants to be wrapped up as soon as tomorrow night is donald trump. perhaps doing it an interesting way, scott's favorite person, but listen to what ron desantis might have to say. >> wondering who that might be. [ laughter ] >> and he threw him under the bus. i've never seen a candidate run

for office and basically campaign for another candidate in the race, the minute he was not useful they drop the hammer on it. >> do you see strategy and trump throwing ramaswamy is an attempt to soften ron desantis anything it's all going to be about trump's legal problems. >> for the long time in this campaign, vivek was essentially a surrogate for trump, he does come to the debate, he was kind of like a stand-in, he should of the courthouse in miami and was wearing a trump at and whirring trust paraphernalia. there was some usefulness but at the end what is trump trying -- trying to do, this 50% number could be one of the quotations, if he doesn't get there one of the reasons will

be because vivek stole five or 6% or separate him and that will make me. and trump's campaign manager compared him to a parasite clinging onto the bottom of the shark in a tweet tonight. while they found usefulness in him for a while, i think the worm has turned on that. >> is positive numbers were higher, much higher than nikki haley's, he had like a 53 positive 37% negative, he's actually done pretty well in that. >> just a clear, donald trump is the shark, the predatory animal. left>> very specific analogy everyone, standby, we will come back in just a minute . another major factor in the race, which is of course the weather, even pressing voters to turn off them in extremely dangerous temperatures. in iowa tomorrow, a live up date on just how cold it is

going to get up next.

tomorrow's iowa caucuses are said to be the coldest on record by lot, waking up to 20 degrees below zero, you won't get much warmer throughout the day, obviously a major factor in the wildcard for turnout, and a lot of concern, a lot of concern about the livestock and how they will be fearing but what about the people? >> taking care of the livestock, that's was going to be happening, he will be having time to spend four towers -- four hours going to town and going back to the farm and finding out's went very wrong, i know how these things work. we never think of it as a purple state that i will is a purple state, 40 degrees below zero in cedar rapids, 13 below, and spirit lengthen okoboji,

rise to goes a kid, it is cold, even without the wind it is cold, tomorrow exactly the same , a degree or do you -- 2 warmer but when the sun is the snow it won't warm the land very much, just going to bounce back up in the snow, the coldest we've known about, in 2004, that is 16, we know that this 2004 was effected by the sick, we are going to be 20 degrees colder than that for tomorrow afternoon, going through those places and standing in line, and 31 degrees, the departure from normal. 31 degrees colder than it should be tomorrow, so very cold. >> chad myers, thank you. >> absolutely. >> joining me now is a longtime

republican strategist in iowa who has worked with 4 different presidential campaigns, visit and cofounder of campaign hq, turning out voters nationwide you are in des moines, you know exactly what is is like and i will sure, what are you seeing the ball on the roads as you're driving around in hearing about turnout in the caucuses tomorrow? >> absolutely, roads were significant, once you get out from the gravel without to the county roads and hearts are's raids, things are looking good and only going to get better tomorrow, turnout will be impacted and this would be a good test of candidates organization, a good organization or a caucus campaign will include precinct captains will be working to make sure that everyone is a campaigning candidate, they have a plan to get out and vote, including people with to

get drugs evening rides in wheelchairs for the might not be steady and the. this will be a very real test of iowa caucus organization a lot of people to not know what a caucus is. it takes a lot more time is going to the polls and ensure election day, what is absolutely. the main difference in a caucus and is that is a party organizing, volunteers with over 1600 eight, doors open at 6 am start at half and register as you will conduct party business and conducted presidential candidate just

have a speaking pass up right on the tenant's selected overseen by representatives from each of the campaigns, so we know one person gets counted securely reported back to the state party securely. that is the kickoff of how we nominate delegates who are going to represent us at the national next summer, which is where we will is the nominee to go against joe biden to take back the white house, will be starting the party for process of that time people can come in proposed planks that it all the way to the national flood, and opportunity for grassroots folks to collect to higher positions the party starts at night. >> a lot of backlash and some quarters about some caucuses, a pretty low turnout, does the caucus survive republicans

after the cycle? >> i think there are differences in the way that republicans voted caucuses in the way the democrats have historically go to as i said before was one person one vote with republicans, we had a verifiable paper trail to ensure that the results are safe, secure and accurate, that's really important, was even more important the caucus process ensures that every candidate expended by regular everyday salt of the earth american's. if they think they can simply buy their way on television, certain voices may not get an opportunity to be heard in iowa you can run for president and it doesn't matter how much money you have, every candidate will get the opportunity for caucus goers to vet them to ask him questions, every time we see front runner stumble, i would rather see that i will write now and not next november

when they are on the debate stage with joe biden, so it plays an important process and makes the candidate better when we winnow the field. >> thank you very much for joining us tonight. >> thank you. >> with only a few hours to go, ron desantis is downplaying a new poll showing him place ahead of this crucial first vote in iowa, he said he likes being underestimated, we will talk to a congressssman who has beenen close to o his side all ththat is nextxt.

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yup, $1000. so switch to business internet from the company with the largest fastest reliable network. give your business a head start in 2024 with this great offer. plus, ask how to get up to $1000 prepaid card with qualifying internet. >> florida governor ron desantis is projecting confidence tonight despite what the polls show. >> we are in this for the long haul, majority of the delegates, we understand there is a long process year but we are going to do well, because we've done it right. >> he has gone on hold events even with the weather we've seen in iowa, as he has been for several days working overtime, thanks for being here,

just last -- last month the governor said they were going to win iowa, is he still saying that tonight? >> i think is an excellent shot, and thursday with people flowing out doesn't fly up to st. louis, driving eight hours all day friday and saturday, again today crisscrossing the date, i literally went from council bluffs to nebraska, all the way across, illinois and today after dubuque, and sioux city, people expect you to go to earn it, the organization he put in place, how you get that done, she no showed, the reason that donald trump penance keeping debates, and governors

-- governor ron desantis will be there, and i think they will be enthusiastic and we'll see what happens tomorrow. >> with a third-place finish mean the end of the desantis campaign in your view? >> he understands this is a delegate game, people focused to listen to the message, i promise there listening and converting lots of folks, i will sit there and lay out after i supported ted cruz by the way, his chief of staff, i supported donald trump in 2016, and there have been a lot of deficiencies, i've done that and laid out the record and governor ron desantis is done that, we convert people, i think he's going to have a good night, got a good shot to win, and it's a turnout game, they

hold in their hand the power to change this country, put in place a candidate, that we are proud of, rallied behind tomorrow night, and send to the other states for kids and grandkids, i've been delivering, if we have the turnout operation in the freezing cold you will do very well. >> you said you're not afraid to point out donald trump's deficiencies, and governor ron desantis, he pays close attention to who campaigned against him of course, are you worried about retribution or blowback from trump? >> no, first of all we put our faith in principles, not princes, governor rick perry, he called president trump a cancer, and ended up being a secretary of energy, a rough- and-tumble business, if you

can't take that you shouldn't be in it, i think president trump should show open debate, not doing it for reason, a checklist of issues, he has cleaned his clock up and down the ballot, he's in a really good spot tomorrow night to do a good job. and trying to represent the people to make this country a better place for kids and grandkids, people of iowa are responding to that, they get it, and not the former presence issues, intending to focus on, and right guy to do it as you know.>> the voters decide that tomorrow, and with mike johnson here in washington, and one of the toughest moments of this short tenure so far as the speaker, facing to government funding deadlines over this next month alone, you had said there are conversations about

potentially removing them from the job, have those conversations become more serious and should you be worried about job security tonight?>> yes, as i have said, mike is a friend, going down that road with kevin, the fact is, it's about getting it right, what the american people are sick of, and what are we going to do right now, apparently the strategy is to put yet again another continuing resolution, this would be the third round, extending to six-month, at these spending levels, that's not why they were given the majority, to spend at nancy pelosi's levels, just to buy time, and it's a nonstarter, and like we said we would, and use that to build the majority in november. >> stay warm and enjoy your

time in iowa. >> and let me know when you get over nick sabin's retirement. >> probably never, thank you for bringing that up, appreciate that. >> i will, not alabama, does not always mean the candidates are going to the white house, looking at caucus history, in the future right after this.

the iowa caucuses holding unique place in the process of selecting a president. but they are not, at least not recently, the most accurate predictor of who that person will be. for more than half a century we have seen candidates dedicate months and sometimes even years to the date that is the 31st largest population. >> democrats in iowa are beginning a series of caucuses that take the place of a

primary. >> i was starts the actual process of selecting a president. >> the election begins tonight in iowa. >> since the caucuses began in 1872, the claim victory, whether the becoming nominee depends on which party they come from. for democrats, these seven saw their names eventually on the general election ballot but for republicans only 4 have won i will and gone on to win the nomination, a 20 year gap between george w. bush and donald trump, going from a win to the seat in the oval office, only jimmy carter, barack obama and george w. bush have won a contested caucus in iowa and then become president. what iowa does introduces surprises. it has always been that way, in 1972 george mcgovern was a longshot editor used his second

place finish in iowa propel him to the democratic nomination in 1980 ronald reagan was considered such a lock skipped last debate, the wonder of the republican caucus that year turned out to be george w. bush, landing him on the ticket as vice president. early front runner to third place in iowa prompted this infamous scream in des moines right after he lost the caucuses, he was trying to keep his disappointed supporters fired up.>> were going to washington dc to take back the white house. [ screaming ] [ laughter ] >> the flipside was jimmy carter, yet you were votes than people chose uncommitted but he used iowa as his mccarter clearly the winner, well, come the first visited iowa one year ago few people heard of that in

2000 -- in 2008, obama mania started with this win in iowa. >> a crushing crowd at this annual iowa state friday, rockstar treatment for a 45- year-old senator in office just two years, 97 of 100 in senate yorty. >> love all the stories that look like that is a lot more that look like rick santorum or the judge, winning iowa was just a highlight. -- pete buttigieg, mitt romney was declared the winner but it was found out that rick santorum had ready for more votes or 2020 with the technical glitches that had no clear winner for weeks in iowa. it's about momentum, the conversation can turn on who can exceed expectations. surprise second-place finishes

generate attention often, especially gary hart in 1984, pat mckinnon in 1996, even john kerry in 2004, all three men dramatically over performed in the polls and use the momentum to pull off wins in new hampshire. exactly what nikki haley is hoping to do tomorrow and what ron desantis wants to prevent. of course none of those candidates went on to become president i should note but nikki haley is hoping to turn history on it said, the next chapter in iowa will be written tomorrow. the question is what the expectations look like, addiction on all of that and more with the panel right after this.

we are just about one hour away from caucus day in iowa, a major impact and what comes next, new hampshire's primary is only nine days from now, joining me one last time tonight is our great little panel, believe it or not donald trump is once again talking about election results. in new hampshire i think they are signing people up to vote and that's disgraceful. sticker what is he talking about? figure referring to same-day voting, that speaks to the fact that he actually thinks nikki haley might be closing in on his new hampshire starting to so the doubt, he scared.

>> you're hearing about the polls, haley, she is relying on his dental number of democrats and independents in iowa, or independence, it's only semiopen in new hampshire, and respond to the idea that not republicans might put his marks in jeopardy, if there was a one will say among the republican party that took >> a way of mobilizing republicans by raising spector got a taste of this insurance policy, it makes any election he doesn't win is a crooked election, this is a normal refrain from him, but i think he will have a good day tomorrow i don't think he will have to make any tomorrow. the polls, 28 point lead in the des moines register poll, great enthusiasm, got an

organization, it would be shocking if he did not have a date tomorrow. >> i think he sowing doubt because he's selfish and he is a liar, is dented to date and it is not backfired on display this out, let's say it doesn't go like he wanted in iowa or new hampshire, and still wins not as wide a margin and he tries to public report is trying to rip that part, you have people who are greatest in and say not on our watch, i was in looking up with dirty tricks, sees it as the enemy actor, if there is some wrongdoing goes but it's also insurance as well. republican party, if don't like just say it is? >> no matter what happens you

didn't give you the right order the drive, victimization i would like to just change the subject, i love that ron desantis is i love being underestimated, he entered as the over dog, he spent eight months reducing expectation. in the last month. will candidate thinking closing strong, you look at the pole, and you think you might eke out the second, going on to south carolina, on the way to tallahassee. >> if he finishes third that's it for him? >> the marginally candidacy, independent miniatures, and negative ads in the campaigns,

ron desantis, $48 million, next closest is nikki haley, 22, pretty obvious. >> it came from trump. >> ron desantis, i'm surprised it didn't play as well as he thought it would. eliciting that folks don't go after every constituency. >> that is not a conversation. the woke ideology thing has really gone by the wayside, great night and great conversation, thank you so much, the news after a quick break. >> inc. you so much.

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