there is a strong sense of urgency from this campaign, from the president himself. that's why he was adamant about getting out on the trail to kick off 2024 to lay out he hais vis for the future. the threat has never been stronger, that has been embodied by donald trump, when he's talnot talking about banning abortion, he's ruling for the economy to crash. he's pledging to rule as a dictator on day one. there's a sense of urgency in the work of our campaign reflects that urgency. >> if that's all the case, though, why are many college-educated republican voters open to somebody other than trump, why are they turning toward him and away from biden? you won over some independents in 2020. you're going to need them. >> well, absolutely. and i'm very confident that this campaign continues to do the

work that it has done by clearly laying out the stakes, we will see the sake result that we saw in 2020 when president biden beat donald trump by over 7 million votes. we'll see the same result we saw in 2022 when democrats had the strongest midterm result. and we'll see the same result in places like virginia, kentucky and ohio when folks understood the clear contrast presented in front of them for democrats who were fighting for more freedom, standing up for democracy, and republicans trying to tear down the fabric of our democracy. we are confident if we continue to communicate that message to the american people on election day they're going to pick joe biden. >> michael tyler, thank you very much for that. and "cnn this morning" continues right now. ♪ it's the top of the hour, good monday morning, everyone. big day ahead. >> caucus day. >> and poppy harlow, phil

mattingly in new york, katsie hunt live in des moines. we are about to find out just how strong of a grip donald trump really has on republican voters. can he dominate or can his rivals pull after an upset? also, these are set to be the coldest iowa caucuses on record, with dangerous sub reazero temp. the high today is negative 1. >> that's not warm. i think we can say that. trump is holding a tele rally instead of in-person events after canceling several rallies because of the frigid weather. ron desantis keeping up his ground game crisscrossing the state with several campaign events planned before the caucuses kick off. we have team coverage this morning across the state. correspondents on the ground in iowa, political analysts standing by. let's start with katiesie hunt. how are they adapting on the campaign level for this weather? >> reporter: we all are.

since the last time we did this, it's now negative 13 in des moines. it was negative 15 when we started the show. i guess we're making a little bit of progress. that is the story here. donald trump is absolutely dominant. you can pick that up immediately once you start talking to people on the ground in des moines. the suspense is much more muted than it often is in other caucus years. that said, if he doesn't hit that 50% mark, it's going to be interesting to see how the narrative shakes out heading out of here, if nikki haley spring boards into new hampshire where she likely has a better chance of taking on the former president and the man who has been the presumptive front runner all along. those are the dynamics at the outset here. let's get straight to eva mckend, also here in des moines. eva, i hope you are also staying warm. look, you're inside. that's very good. i'm very happy to see that. how are the candidates spending their final hours here?

>> reporter: well, kasie, nikki haley telling iowans they have the opportunity to set the tone for the rest of the country. governor desantis expressing confidence in the extensive ground operation that his team has built here. former president donald trump telling supporters that they should not take anything for granted. you know, after months of campaigning, millions of dollars in ads, this contest here in iowa could all come down to how iowans navigate this brutal weather. the 2024 presidential race is heating up as temperatures are dropping in iowa. >> get excited. >> reporter: iowans are battling snow and below zero temperatures as they head out to caucus in the first voting event to determine the republican nominee for president. >> so brave the weather and go out and save america. >> reporter: iowa's gop chairman

predicting a robust voter turnout, despite frigid temperatures. the remaining candidates holding their final campaign events in the hawk eye state over the weekend. >> we have the ability. here in iowa, you have the ability to change the trajectory of american politics. r r . >> reporter: and making their final pitches to caucus goers. >> we have seen a tidal wave in the last 48 hours. >> you can be the start of the solution that we have. i promise you our best days are yet to come. >> reporter: former president trump who holds a commanding polling lead heading into the caucus spent the weekend campaigning in iowa. >> you can't sit home. if you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, i got to make it. even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. >> reporter: during his rally, he targeted former south carolina governor nikki haley who's in a distant fight for second place.

>> she's not right to be president. i know it very well. the wrong thought process. the wrong policy, and honestly, she's not tough enough. >> no one ever questions my toughness. he's saying this because now he knows he's in frtrouble. i know he knows the truth. it doesn't it doesn't bother me at all. >> reporter: trump picked up endorsements from doug burgum, and florida senator marco rubio. >> i don't line up a bunch of endorsements to do that. i want to win the people's vote. at the end of the day, they're the ones i'm serving. >> florida governor ron desantis also faced criticism from trump. at his final campaign stop in iowa, he tried to distinguish himself from the front runner. >> he's running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first. that's what he cares about. you can be the most worthless republican in america, but if

you kiss the ring, he'll say you're wonderful. you deserve a nominee that's going to put you first, not himself first. >> reporter: now, the iowans that i speak to, they are showing great resolve. they tell me that they are still planning to come out and caucus tonight, that they're very excited. they view this tradition as sacred and the stakes so high. something else i'm watching, kasie. you know, democrats and independents, they can switch their party registration tonight during the caucus. how many of them come outment so many in new hampshire for nikki haley. there are democrats and independent voters in iowa supporting haley as well. kasie. >> eva mckend up for us. also here in des moines, eva, thank you. >> stay with us, it's not just iowa that's freezing. for more on the brutally cold temperatures hitting the northwest, let's go to whitney wild in chicago.

record shattering temperatures not just in iowa, where you are as well. >> reporter: absolutely right. from oregon to mississippi, 250 daily cold records could be shattered through tuesday as the arctic air blankets the midwest and below. tennessee also seeing low temperatures. they could have a record low of 17 this week. this is not going to let up until at least wednesday. to put this in perspective, in rochelle, illinois, the national weather service says the windchill makes it feel like it is 41 below 0. montana has it even worse. they're expected to have windchills that will make it feel like 70 below 0. so this is not just frigid temperatures, these could be deadly. the risks here, frostbite, hypothermia. here in chicago, they have activated their emergency weather plan for freezing temperatures. warming centers are available throughout the city. extremely dangerous. temperatures here that are expected not to let up until

wednesday, and even then, it is just a brief reprieve because this arctic air kicks back in friday. certainly a very challenging time here in the midwest through at least the rest of the week, phil. >> important to listen to public officials in a moment like this. we're going to dig deeper into iowa's population from the suburbs to rural communities which could be key to a ron desantis or nikki haley second place victory we'll call it. >> in moments we'll be joined by a surrogate for nikki haley and lawmaker in iowa. this is cnn's special live coverage. stay with us.

in a matter of hours, the first votes in the 2024 primary for the republican presidential nomination will be cast. that means this light gray will start to fill in with colors, corresponding with various candidates. with all eyes on iowa, particular attention is being paid to the des moines metro house, not just because they lake the bars where the political operatives hang out. there's been a massive surge of population growth over the last

decade. it's outpaced the state and the country. when you look at the population in the state of iowa over the course of the last decade or so, last eight years, you see where it's darker green, that means there have been more people, but throughout the course of the state, for the most part, almost the entire state has seen an increase in population. now, let's specifically look at the actual des moines metro area. you see there's much darker areas here. 25%, 20%. 15%. what does that actually mean that there's been a surge in population. let's pull this off and go back to 2016. when you look in the des moines metro area, right in this area here, what are you looking at. obviously you see the yellow. that was ted cruz who ended up winning narrowly, you see the red, donald trump, the darker red. marco rubio kind of finding a path to a close third place finish that relied on suburban voters, the type of voters nikki haley has resonated with over the course of the last several

months. what does that mean when you're actually looking at the suburbs, they have grown a lot. there's a pathway there for somebody like nikki haley, and when you talk about the actual number of voters. this is polk county where des moines is located. largest county in the state. 15% of the population here. you're talking about 15, 16, 17,000 votes back in 2016. with the population growth, will that expand and expand in a meaningful way that nikki haley can capitalize in. the other question now is what about those rural voters? that's considered to be a stronghold for donald trump, particularly in these areas here, these former counties that used to go toward democrats, moved sharply toward donald trump in the general election in 2020. can he make end rotes in evangelical country. these are areas ted cruz dominated donald trump. ron desantis has tried to make end roads in the same areas, meeting with the faith communities, hoping to separate donald trump off from the evangelical voters. will he be able to this time

around? it's an open question. one fascinating county i want to watch. this right here. donald trump won clark county back in 2016. this is where the governor is from. the governor who endorsed ron desantis. is this going to have an effect? watch clark county. see if it starts to move toward desantis. see if the endorsements have an effect. >> do not think you're going to be able to sleep tonight. you're going to be very excited. >> i like when votes come in. joining is iowa state representatives austin harris, a surrogate for nikki haley's campaign. we're grateful to have you with us this morning. what is success for nikki haley tonight in iowa? >> oh, i think success is just having a strong showing here in the state. there's a lot of speculation over whether it would be second or third. really what we need is just to show what our hard work has put in over the last year or so. we feel momentum on the ground. we're surging in this race. we're second in new hampshire,

second in south carolina. according to some of the recent polls, second here in iowa, but we just need to have a strong showing tonight. >> i know you were happy with the top line "des moines register" polling number on friday that had her just ahead of desantis by about 4 points. when you dug into it, you have an enthusiasm issue among iowa caucus goers, they are not that enthusiastic about nikki haley. 9% are extremely enthusiastic. she falls last on favorability, between desantis, trump and ramaswamy. how do you change minds? you worked in the trump administration, the ag department, so you were supportive of a lot of those policies. now you're on the haley train. how do you convince your fellow iowans to get there too? >> i have respect for all the candidates in this race. i'm not supporting nikki haley because of anybody that's in the race or not in the race. i'm supporting her because of the vision and positive message

that she has to take this country to a new place. you know, i appreciate everything that president trump did in his administration. but the times have changed, and we have a war in the middle east, war in europe, a crisis on the southern border, record high inflation. we need that president who's going to bring this country together, unite this country and move forward. i have no doubt in my mind that nikki haley is that person. we cannot fix democrat chaos with republican chaos. we have had enough chaos for several years now. we need to be able to unite this country, bring it together, and move forward. >> you know, trump sure went after nikki haley this weekend saying she's not prepare to be president, not strong enough. let's listen to what he said about her, and her pushback on him last night. here it is. >> she's not right to be president. i know her very well, the wrong thought process, the wrong policy. she's not tough enough.

we're dealing with people who are on their game at a level we have never seen. president xi of china. >> he's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble, this is becoming a two-person race. i know he knows the truth. it doesn't bother me at all. >> i wonder what you say to trump supporters, people making up their mind about who they're going to kau tuscaucus tonight, hear donald trump and hear what he says. >> if that's how he truly feels, why did he appoint her to represent him on the world stage at the united nations. this is somebody who was a successful governor of south carolina, took on the establishment and beat them. as governor, she cut taxes, moved people from welfare to work. revitalized the economy. south carolina was the beast of the southeast, and that's the type of leadership that we need in washington today, so this is someone who went to the united nations and stood on the world stage and took on dictators and thugs, so she has a backbone.

president trump knows that, i think, that's why he appointed her to be ambassador of the u.n. this is exactly what i'm talking about. we have to leave behind negativity and chaos, and move forward. we can't fix democrat chaos with republican chaos. >> one of the things that makes iowa more interesting, if it could get more interesting, someone you know has close ties to iowa that you can have crossovers. like prior to today or today, democrats and independents can switch their registration for a day. they can caucus tonight in the republican caucuses. how much do you expect democrats and independents to help nikki haley in your state tonight. >> that's a good question. i don't know for sure. but, you know, this is a campaign that's focused on uniting americans and bringing people together. winning elections is about building coalitions, so we can't win the general election if we don't bring independents and democrats into the campaign. i think nikki haley has demonstrated that she's able to do that. you look at the polling. you see in the general election

she defeats joe biden not just by a few points, by some points, 15 or 17. this is somebody who i think has demonstrated she can bring americans together, unite them and turn them out to vote as well. >> would you say you expect a substantial amount of support for her. 2012, there was a republican caucus, not a democratic one there. nbc news did some analysis and found 11% of iowans who participated in the caucuses were democrats or independents. this could help you a lot. are you banking on that? >> you cut out there a little bit, but i think i know what your question was. we'll see what the turnout looks like tonight. i think we'll see some crossover. do i think it will be substantial? not really, i think at the end of the day, this is mostly going to be republicans participating in the caucus tonight. >> representative austin harris, put the snow boots on and parka on, you'll be out. thank you.

>> thank you. next hour, our dana bash is going to sit down one on one with ron desantis. she will ask about second or third place, and how this could all shape the rest of his campaign. also this morning, fulton county district attorney fani willis is defending her team after being accused of hiring a romantic partner to lead the georgia election subversion case. what she's saying in her first public comments. also, take a look at what's happening in iceland. a volcano is spewing lava. officials say the flow of lava from sunday's eruption has decreased at this hour. iceland's meteorological office reported an earthquake before that. this is ground video showing the lava burns some homes. this is the second rueruption i the area in just weeks.

fulton county district attorney fani willis breaking her silence on accusations lodged against her and the man she appointed as lead prosecutor, former president trump's georgia election subv subversion case. one of the codefendants claims

willis had a romantic dpaffair from the prosecutor and that she finan financially benefitted. she suggests racism is at the heart of the allegations. cnn's nick valencia is live with more. she did not hold back here. what has been the reaction to her first real comments on the matter? >> reporter: yeah, good morning, phil, for those expecting an apology from the fulton county district attorney, they're not getting one right now. she struck a defiant tone in her first comments from a pulpit at a sunday service since allegations surfaced that she was involved in the special prosecutor she hired to prosecute trump in this case. she called the challenge to dismiss the case over the allegations nonsense. >> i appointed three special counsel, as is my right to do, paid them all the same hourly rate. they only attack one.

>> willis did not confirm or deny that she was involved in a romantic relationship with nathan wade. these allegations are enough for her to get calls to step down from this case. we recently sat down with a top democrat in the state, a former u.s. attorney and a cnn legal analyst. michael moore says if these allegations against willis are true that she should step down for the good of the case. >> i'd tell her to get out of the case. i really think that this type of case or these allegations this case is bigger than any one prosecutor, and i think probably to preserve the case and to show that what's of most importance to her is the facts of the trump case, as opposed to her political career, if you will, at this moment. >> so what happens next? the judge presiding over this case says he is expected to schedule a hearing to talk about

these allegations for early to mid february. phil. much more to come. please keep us posted. nick valencia, thank you. new this morning, an alarming warning if the international monetary fund on the impact of artificial intelligence. the teach of the imf says almost 40% of jobs around the world may be disrupted by the rise of artificial intelligence. the imf warning jobs may disappear and the trend is likely to deepen inequality. that post was a warning but also a call for the global community to make ai beneficial to humanity, not to hinder it. special live coverage of the iowa caucuses, continue, kasie hunt is in des moines for us this morning. what are you watching? >> reporter: poppy, phil, this caucus day is going to be the absolute coldest on record. up next, i'm going to speak to an iowa republican strategist,

the one and only david kosh el about how the weather could impact turnout and so much more, and a live look at the martin luther king jr. memorial on this martin luther king day as the sunrises in washington, d.c. the slain civil rights leader was born on this day in 1929, and it is a day to reflect on the principles of racial equality and nonviolent social change. we'll bebe right b back.

. good morning, everyone, i'm kasie hunt, we are live in des moines, iowa, at the lovely mars cafe with a little less than 13 hours to go until the iowa

caucuses officially get underway this evening. here in des moines, it is negative 12 degrees right now, and it is not expected to warm up all that much by caucus time. in fact, it will probably start getting cold again by the time we hit 7:00 p.m. local time, and tonight's iowans are going to have to brave dangerous sub zero temperatures if they want to go vote because it is forecast to be the coldest caucus night basically in modern record as you can see from this graph here on your screen. despite these conditions, the iowa republican chairman, jeff kaufman predicted a strong turnout. here's what he said. >> i honestly believe that we're going to have a robust turnout, as long as there's not ice on those roads. iowans know those precautions. they know how to handle that. we're giving advice to all of our chairs, trying to make sure that the lines are inside as they're moving through. this is iowa winter. and in the context of that, this

is not anything that these individuals haven't faced over and over and over again. >> all right. joining us right now is the man everyone wants to talk to today, iowa republican strategist, david kochel, just a decades long veteran of national campaigns as well. you ran the caucuses in 1996. you've seen and done it all. but we've never seen anything like this. do you think kaufman was right? you and i were talking last night about where turnout was going to be? >> i had set the over/under about 150,000 a week ago, a little less than 2016. i don't think we're going to get there. i don't see a way to do it. it's cold. it's not just cold, though, we talked about this last week. this is painful. this is dangerous. in rural counties where they don't get plowed as quickly, you know, you go in the ditch, your car's not coming out. your battery might be dead. this is really different. i think we'll see something a

little bit lower than we did before, which might produce a surprise, which is kind of what iowa is famous for anyway. we'll see if that works. >> i keep saying, there's not so much suspense with trump burks i have to-- but i have to say, we, who knows, maybe we are in for a surprise. let's walk through what each candidate has to do in iowa. let's start with trump. what do you see at line he needs to hit, and how will it play on either side of the line? >> yeah, look he's been -- i think he's at 51% in the real clear politics average in iowa. that kind of sets the bar for him, and i think 50% is a little bit of an interesting psychological line. if he falls under 50, he was at 49 in the register poll on saturday night. if he hits under 50, that means over half of iowa caucus goers want something else. that's a real thing. that's a pretty important number. so if he comes in under that, i think he walks out of here trying to have to explain that because he's had a huge lead all

alon along. i think nikki haley has the easiest story to tell out of the iowa. she didn't do the 99 county tour. she didn't have $120 million super pac. she has grown this thing from almost nothing and kind of come out of nowhere. now, the register poll has her kind of in second, but her and desantis are really fighting for second place. but she's strong in new hampshire already. she's strong in south carolina already. i think desantis is the one who really needs a surprise here. and by surprise, i mean, there's got to be a delta between he and haley so he can come out of here with a little bit of energy, and i think the pressure is really on because of the investment in time and money thaich mey've mae and the endorsements he has had here. they are talking about the organization, which is excellent. we'll see if he can really push through and jooverperform where he's at in the polls, that will help him. i think that's where it stands

today. >> for destaesantis's organizat how do you think the cold will affect him, as opposed to donald trump's game. desantis is running a traditional, conservative, evangelical, church-based campaign. those people are used to going to caucuses, right, and i know you've told me that the greatest predictor of whether someone goes to caucus is whether they've done it before. what's the difference between desantis and trump here? >> trump didn't have it in 2016. he definitely has it this time. what they're doing is simple. they're calling caucus chairman, their own caucus captains trying to line up suvs and four by fours that they can get people to the polls if needed. there are going to be people who struggle to get out on their own. it's dark at 7:00 p.m. now. they don't want to be driving in this if they can help it. they're doing that sort of thing. desantis, more traditional. they have supporters they are calling today, verify, reverify, triple check, make sure

everybody is getting there, probably moving up the time they want them to be at the caucus. there will be caucuses that are big, have long lines. you got to be ready to go at 7:00. it's not like this is a really different thing than a regular primary or general election. people got to be there on time, in line or they're not going to be able to vote. all of these campaigns are pushing every way they canment volunteer phone calls. they will probably have people on the doors today even. think about that, you don't want to be out walking around in this weather. it's hard. >> i got to tell you, i walked from a car down the sidewalk into a hotel, and i can feel my nose, the only part of me that was outside. david kochel, always great to have you. i'll take any excuse to talk to you. caucus is the best one though. back to you, phil. candidates have spent serious cash on campaign ads. ahead, we're going to see if the ad blitz makes a difference in the race. this is cnn's live special coverage.

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if there's one thing iowans can look forward, they have a lot to look forward to. regardless of who wins, it's a break from nonstop political ads, republican candidates have bombarded iowa residents with $123 million in advertising just this election cycle. >> according to data from ad impact and the "washington post," haley's ad spending surged in december with more than $3 million spent a week followed by ron desantis with just over $2 million, and trump, the front runner with just over a million. what have those ads actually looked like? >> make america great again. >> here's what wall street funded nikki haley said in new hampshire. >> you know iowa starts it, you

know you correct it. >> haley disparages the caucuses and insults you. >> americans were promised a secure retirement. nikki haley's plan ends that. >> joining us now, kristen sulty sanderson, scott jennings, keith bettingfield, not the nicest of ads. you had an interesting piece talking about the not inevitable going to happen, maybe not likely, but the sort of beyond trump majority. could you speak to that? >> yeah, so i really don't think there's a majority of republicans who at this point seem eager to turn the page from trum tr trump. through there is a majority that says, look, i want to keep any eye on the future. donald trump is not going to be around forever. they entered the campaign season looking to see are there other

candidates out there that can deliver the things i liked about donald trump but not the stuff i didn't like. unfortunately for ron desantis and nikki haley, they have made it here close to the finish line in iowa staying in the race but haven't demonstrated that they are those people. frankly i think it's because they have spent time attacking each other. as you saw in the ads there, there hasn't been an opportunity for voters in iowa and new hampshire and say, here's why nikki haley and not trump. >> didn't give something to vote for. >> and i think haley has tried. i think especially here in the last couple of weeks, her really strong performance is part of why she's had that momentum, but giving them something to vote for that is distinct in some way from donald trump in making that contrast clear, i think that's where these candidates really didn't do what they needed to do and why they're likely to get second and third tonight. >> maybe that explains the enthusiasm gap. it reminds me of joe biden, the idea that people are coming out to make a statement about trump, as opposed to having a belief in

the radical vision. she doesn't propose that. she hits home the idea of moving past republican chaos. that's the phrase she brings up again and again. >> her surrogate brought up twice in the last five minutes. >> what does she stand for? >> it's interesting that none of them made a concerted effort on the electability effort. haley has in the final push here, she lifts up head to head polls with her and joe biden. i would be joe biden by 17 points, but the republican candidates didn't ban together at the beginning of the primary and make an argument to republican voters that donald trump is not a good election candidate, he is weak, vulnerable for a lot of reasons, including all of the 91 indictments against him. and so, you know, they sort of signalled to republican voters, well, i'm trump light. i'm not really taking him on. they never found their footing. that would have been a way to do it. >> at the beginning you heard people saying, you may love trump but he's going to lose. that argument, that strategic

voting argument has been obliterated by the polls showing him beat biden, "the washington post" survey showed trump up 10 points, and really since that moment, biden has been in trouble. trump has been in good enough shape to win a national election, and so how do you go to the republicans who say, well, we really want trump. we like trump more than anyone else. and say, well, he's destined to lose, and they're looking at evidence saying, i'm not sure that's true. >> shortly after last year's midterm elections, i think there was an opportunity to say as a party, we have got to turn the page or we're going to jeopardize being able to win things. >> republicans are all saying that, maybe quietly, but they were all saying that back then. >> if desantis doesn't get the comeback kid out of iowa, we're going to look at that november to may period when he got in the race, and say that was was moment when the page was begging to be turned, desaesan tis

hesitated, went back to florida. trump recoagulated himself. >> recolag ated? >> he pulled himself together. >> you're bringing your a game on caucus day. appreciate the translation. you watch the millions of dollars in ads that are being spent. is anything going to move the needle has been the thing we have been asking for months. this is the day we get to test the proposition. do you see something happening tonight that everybody goes maybe we were counting the chickens a little bit too early. >> i want to go back to what scott was saying about recoagulation. >> like terminator two, the liquid terminator, we melted him, it's fine! let's just keep going. >> what donald trump has done is effectively take the momentum we have seen with nikki haley and ron desantis and used it against

them. defined nikki haley as a wall street funded candidate who's getting a bunch of democrats to come out and support her. she's not a true republican. you know, define ron desantis as someone who's taking away kim reynolds who was a lawyer trump supporter, right, and make this about loyalty and not actually about ron desantis being about anything. so i just think that hesitation allowed donald trump to actually get a few more really effective hits in that will likely support his winning. >> i asked this to an iowa state lawmaker, austin harris, a surrogate for nikki haley a couple of minutes ago, and didn't get a number from him. i said what's a win for nikki haley tonight. you know numbers inside and out as a pollster, what is an actual win for nikki haley tonight, and an actual -- i can survive this for ron desantis number? >> i would say she has to be a fair distance apart from ron desantis. i would say at least maybe five points ahead of him for it to be a really big strong statement.

ultimate, i think some of this is really academic. i'm also not going to give you -- >> the "des moines register" poll said haley is on shaky ground. >> right. part of that is because her supporters are less enthusiastic, and she depends on the sorts of democrats and independents who you might not see this big of a number in republican primary. i think what she needs is to prove she has life in her as we head to new hampshire. it's odd, for donald trump, he's probably going to win, but what would a loss look like even though he's going to win chblt . -- win. academics will say, donald trump won by double digits is this over, right, and they have to be able to make the message clear, this isn't over. >> as somebody who's in the room in iowa, beside, unintentionally short circuiting the entire reporting process from the iowa democratic party, but expectations, i think, were something you guys had to have been weighing back then. if you're the trump campaign, 50

plus 1 or beat dole's '88 margin. what do you think? how do you spin this to some degree? >> you declare victory and move forward. as soon as this race is called for him tonight, you send your people out, you say we went wire-to-wire here, obviously there's this 50% threshold. if he's over 50%, he can fully declare that the majority of iowa republican voters voted for him. but it's also thinking about what are the next two or three steps. where do you send your surrogates, your candidate, does had egoto n he going to new hampshire, the expectation he's going to run a stronger race, and does he say, i'm looking to the general election. i won this thing. >> would you skip new hampshire? >> i would not. i think nikki haley has momentum, and the risk that she outt outperforms there is a potential threat. i would not skip new hampshire but i would essentially say, hey, i won this thing and now i'm looking to the general

election. >> two wins and this thing is over. he blows it out in iowa, even a short win in new hampshire, he has a good public argument to say republicans have spoken. and by the way, there will be a lot of people in the party from all corners o. partf the party , yep, i think donald trump is right. let's wrap this up. >> i'm going to get phil a t-shirt. >> thank you. all. governor ron desantis joins cnn this morning hours before the caucus. heartbreak at the u.s./mexico border. three migrants, two of them children, drowned in the rio grande days after texas blocked border patrol agents from accessing the area. we will take you live for reporting in eagle pass, texas.

a cnn exclusive this morning, the white house is demanding that texas give u.s. border patrol agents immediate access to the area along the southern border where three migrants a woman and two children drowned this weekend trying to cross the rio grande. the deaths come days after the state seized control at the shelby public park in eagle pass, fencing it off and blocking federal agents from the area. congressman, they would not grant access to migrants, even in the event of an emergency and they would send a soldier to investigate instead. our rosa flores is kocovering a of this and has reporting from eagle pass, texas, a complete tragedy. three migrants, two of them children dead. what do we know about how the agents were barred from the area, and what action the biden administration is take something.

>> reporter: well, let me take you through this, poppy, because we have video of what the takeover looks like. this is shelby park, the park that texas took custody of last week, and you'll see that there's fencing and gates, and there are members of the texas military department determining who goes in and who goes out. this is an escalation, a new high when it comes to the feud between texas and the biden administration over border security. we have covered the legal battles, they are ongoing. the border buoys, the razor wire, they are down river from where i'm standing. there's the immigration law, sb 4, it has turned tragic, deadly, a migrant mother and her two children died over the weekend. they drowned and dhs says that border patrol asked texas military department access during that distress call and that they were not provided access, and the texas military department says that that is completely inaccurate. and if your brain is spinning, you're not alone. here's how you need to look at

this. so the state of texas, texas governor greg abbott and the biden administration don't see eye to eye when it comes to border security and border security tactics. and texas has taken the extraordinary step of blocking a federal law enforcement agency from its jurisdiction and not allowing border patrol to enter. now, the biden administration has asked the u.s. supreme court to intervene. texas replied to the high court saying that it is going to work to get access to border patrol to that park that i just showed you. but this shows the ramping up of escalation, and now new scoop this morning from my colleague at the white house, priscilla alvarez about this cease and desist order by dhs to the state of texas asking them, and hear this, not just to give border patrol access to that park, to the area that you see behind me and to miles of river, but t