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with qualifying internet. welcome to our viewers in the united states and around the world. i'm wolf blitzer along with john berman. it's caucus day in iowa. we're seeing final pitches, last-minute endorsements and frigid temperatures. we're hours away of getting some answers to huge questions. who will come out on top in the race for second place? will the results push any candidates to simply drop out? >> and can they survive the cold? the weather might be the biggest story in iowa today. that could affect turnout, people's willingness to get out the door and go to the caucus

sites. the candidates trying to get on the campaign trail this last minute. this is what they were saying this morning. >> today is the day we make history. today is the day we make history because we tune out the noise of the media. we tune out the noise of the politicians and we raise the voices of americans that say, we want a better day. >> it's the party of the washington, d.c. establishment. they've lined up behind him. i would be a change agent in washington, d.c. i like that contrast. >> i'm asking you for your vote to revive our nation and answer who we are as americans. >> fithe des moines register shs donald trump with a commanding lead and nikki haley in second place and ron desantis in third.

>> we are our political experts standing by. i want to begin with kate bolduan and sara sidner. how's it going guys? >> reporter: it's cold. >> reporter: but warm in our hearts. we're at the mars cafe in des moines. so glad they let us come in here at the un-godly hour we do. it's happening. today is the day. there's often criticism of the caucuses for not being pre predictive enough of the results. this does matter. it matters for momentum. it matters for fund-raising. today is the first nominating contest of the presidential cycle and it's all happening here. >> reporter: like you said, we can stop talking about what the polls say and what we're hearing. you'll get an actual result and

we'll see where people are. what i love about caucusing is people are exciting about politics, about candidates. you hear so much negativity around politics. this is not the time for that. people are into this. to see them engaged and to see americans doing what we're supposed to do to further democracy is lovely, even when it's negative 11 with a 30-degree windchill. >> iowans can handle it. >> so can we. >> we definitely can. >> the republicans will make it out to the caucus sites. they almost never pick the nominee, but it's the first time we watch people vote. >> we'll get actual real numbers, not polling numbers. the candidates are making their closing arguments to iowa

voters. elena treen is joining us now. most of trump's focus is turning to nikki haley. >> reporter: it has, wolf. his ramped up rhetoric attacking nikki haley really shows how both the former president and his team is beginning to look at her as the closest trump alternative, as being number two in the race. they saw the des moines register poll showing nikki haley for the first time surpassing ron desantis in that poll. they've been watching it closely, not just that poll, but many polls showing nikki haley gaining ground here in iowa and also in new hampshire where his team is looking ahead for that primary next week. i want to play you some of what donald trump said yesterday during his rally. he argued that nikki haley is not tough enough to be president and argued she's not tough enough to stand up to some of

the authoritarian leaders in russia and china. take a listen, wolf. >> she's not right to be president. i know her very well. the wrong thought process, the wrong policy. honestly she's not tough enough. she's not tough enough. we're dealing with people on their game at a level you've never seen. president xi, putin. >> he's saying this because he knows he's in trouble. he knows it's becoming a two-person race. he knows the truth. doesn't bother me at all. >> reporter: as you can hear from nikki haley, she says she welcomes these attacks and sees it as a sign of her momentum heading into iowa and new hampshire. from my conversations with donald trump's team they argue they're confident trump will win iowa tonight. the question is by how much. i know that they've been working hard to manage expectations, both with the general public and the media, but also with the

former president himself. trying to warn him, look, we know that there's a massive expected turnout. that could change and we need to be careful as what we see as a lead as we head into tonight. >> you've been talking to several members of the trump inner circle around the country. what is their sense? give us more detail. >> reporter: right, well, i think one of the big questions is about turnout. i think one of the key parts of their ground game strategy in iowa has been to find and create first-time caucus goers, not just relying on normal republican voters, but creating first-time caucus goers. one of the thing is the weather. they're a bit worried about how many people will show up, but also because donald trump is leading so heavily in the polls. they don't want people to get complacent. >> elena, thank you very much.

cnn's eva mckend is in iowa for us. what can we expect from the other candidates? >> reporter: at this minute they're still crisscrossing the state trying to appeal to iowans. they lost time last week during the snow storms. nikki haley at the drake diner this morning is telling iowans they have the opportunity to set the tone for the country. meanwhile, governor desantis is expressing confidence in the ground game that his team has built out here. desantis, of course, going all in on iowa. former president donald trump, he is leaning on his supporters not be complacent, arguing they should not tag it for granted that he's way out ahead of these polls. haley and desantis trying to emerge as the trump alternative.

time will tell if iowans come out and make their choice known. if one of these candidates, either haley or desantis, emerge as the trump alternative. >> we'll see. it's coming up soon. eva, thank you. john, back to you. >> a lot of people talking about the latest des moines register poll which shows donald trump with a big lead and ron desantis in third place. the desantis campaign thinks it has a lot going in its favor, namely organization. let me show you from this des moines register poll in terms of who said they will definitely show up, the register asked who would definitely show up? ron desantis supporters say they're the most likely to show up, 62%. his suggepporters the most

committed. let's look back to the final des moines register poll in 2016. donald trump was out front. ted cruz was seen as having the most organization in his campaign. what were the end results? ted cruz trail bid 5 in the last register poll. he won the caucuses by more than 3 points. the desantis campaign is hoping they can replicate that. it's not the only aspect of the cruz campaign the desantis people hope to replicate. ted cruz tell well among evangelicals. let me show you where the evangelical voters are in iowa. you can see a broad swath in the central. the highest shade of evangelical voters. you can see all the yellow here, it corresponds to areas where

ted cruz racked up the votes. this is where ron desantis wants to do well tonight. ted cruz did it in 2016. ron desantis hopes particularly among evangelicals he can do that. >> thank you, john. joining us now leah wright and our cnn political commentator. how critical is it for desantis to do well in iowa? >> desantis has to do well or it's over for him. there's been a lot of polite talk about where he has a shot in other states, but ultimately today's contest is about nikki haley versus ron desantis and who has the momentum. who represents the vision of the gop beyond trump? who's the most stable? then honestly beyond that, it's

about money. does he have the money to sustain beyond iowa and also in new hampshire where he most likely won't win? it's critical he comes in second today. >> who knows what's going to happen? ryan, trump according to the latest polls enjoys a large enthusiasm gap right now. 88% of his supporters say they're extremely or very enthusiastic about going with him in the caucuses tonight. desantis is only at 62%. haley at 39%. how do you read this? >> well, i think it's a vulnerability for nikki haley, but another element is that nikki haley is targeting suburban college-educated voters who are in urban centers where the streets have been plowed. given the weather conditions it might be easier to get there. that's not to say she's going to have a massive victory. that's not in the cards. it means she can do respectably.

donald trump has universal name recognition. he is to republican primary voters a kind of incumbent. if he doesn't win by enormous margins, that does suggest there's a real vulnerability and the path for an alternative. that's what nikki haley is banking on. do respectably in those areas where she invested time and effort and see where she goes. >> trump, he predicted he would win with what he called, quote, a historic landslide. what happens if he doesn't? >> anything he gets is going to be historic because the next closest one is bob dole in 1988 who won by 13 percentage points. it's going to be historic. he's going to break records no matter what. however, if he doesn't win with the kind of, i think, crushing victory he's been talking about and talking very loudly about,

part of what it does is gives motivation to somebody like nikki haley. it undermines his campaign. i got to say, he's nervous about it. he's been spending a lot of time attacking nikki haley. not so much attacking ron desantis. he's been putting a lot of money and effort, including technological advantages into efforts to remind iowans to vote for him and support him st strongly. there's a lot more at risk than did i win and did i win decisively. it's about am i giving room for somebody like nikki haley to carve out a pathway to the presidency as a viable alternative to donald trump. >> ryan, how do you see trump's legal challenging impacting what's about to happen in the iowa caucuses? he faces 91 criminal charges. >> you understand very well, in a sense going back to alvin

bragg's case against him, this has been helpful to him. it's put his rivals in an uncomfortable position. it's led republican primary voters who were skeptical to think, wait a second, he's the victim of persecution. he's being attacked. folks are trying to take him off the playing field. these things oddly enough have been helpful at this stage. the question is later on, if there is some alternative, will that lead to a renewed focus? will it lead to the fact there there are a variety of different legal cases, some of which are far more damaging than others? that's the question we don't know the answer to. >> so far he's only been charged. he hasn't been convicted. >> that's right. >> we'll see what happens. guys, thank you very much. coming up, nikki haley is at the center of the most expensive ad war in iowa caucuses history. will it make a difference tonight?

plus, the u.s. downs a houthi missile in the red sea. we'll bring you the latest developments from the middle east. these are live pictures from iowa where voters have to brave brutally cold weather tonight. how could these frigid temperatures affect this key event in the republican race for the white house?

below freezing temperatures to deliver the first verdict of the 2024 election. they will help determine which republican will take on president biden in november. i'm wolf blitzer, along with

john berman at the magic wall. how predictive have the iowa caucuses been? >> not very. not very at all for republicans. looking back to 2016, you can see ted cruz won the iowa caucuses. donald trump won new hampshire touchdown the nomination. in 2012 rick santorum won the iowa caucuses. mitt romney won the nomination. john mccain won the republican nomination in 2008. you have to go back to 2000 to find where the person who won the caucuses was the nominee. that was george w. bush who won 41%. he lost new hampshire to john mccain. iowa not a great predictor of what's to come.

>> i love the history. it's fascinating for those of us who are history buffs. walk us through how the caucuses will unfold and what goes on. >> it all begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. central time in all these counties. there are 99 precincts in iowa. you show up at your caucus site. you sit down and listen to presentations from each candidates team. they send surrogates out. they give a speech. that's step one. step two is you cast a ballot. oftentimes you write it down on a piece of paper. there aren't that many people at each site. they can be quite small. you collect the ballots and. step number three, they count them. they count them and call them into a centralized location. cnn will have people at many of these caucus sites. we may get the results before central headquarters.

the republican caucuses tend to move smoothly. by about 8:30 we could see the results roll in. based on the results tonight, delegates get allocated. it's a several step process. >> thanks very much, john berman, at the magic wall. sara sidner over to you. >> i love john berman's magic wall. it's always informative. i always learn something. nikki haley is brushing off new attacks from former president donald trump. the former south carolina governor has become a target for donald trump as her campaign has gained momentum. joining me now is doug gross, former chief of staff for ex iowa governor terry branson. he's endorsed haley. donald trump is really going after haley, not desantis, not vivek, not asa. he's going after nikki haley.

why is that? >> the reason is because she's his ultimate competitor. after iowa and after new hampshire, there will be two people standing, donald trump and nikki haley. he's trying to take her down because his goal was to wrap up the nomination by the time new hampshire got done. win iowa big, win new hampshire big. it's probably not going to happen to his liking. >> when you consider he's the frontrunner, nikki haley's been criticized for not going after him, not really coming for him. sort of scurrying around it. she says that -- her idea is whether someone is maga or not, it's not the issue. it's the economy and other things. do you agree or should she be going after him because he's going after her? >> in a state like iowa where donald trump is very strong, trump should be over 50%, it's really a race for a strong second. in iowa she has to be careful

not to alienate the trump base because it's strong here. i think you'll see her sharpen her heels in new hampshire. >> you think the attacks will start to come? >> they have to come. once it's one-on-one, you have to create a difference. >> when you look at the local polling, ron desantis and nikki haley are neck in neck. what happened? >> two things happened. he's not a strong candidate. you love him in florida, but in iowa, it looks like it's working to campaign. in iowa, people get a sense of whether you're enjoying the process or not. i think it's work for him. >> people sense that. >> number two, he was drinking out of the same well as donald trump. there's only so much water in that well. his job was to pull people away

from trump. the intensity of the trump support is so strong, it became impossible. nikki haley has coalesced the people who want somebody other than trump. >> desantis didn't do that. >> you hear that all the time, you can't out trump donald trump. >> there's no gray with donald trump supporters. >> i want to ask you something interesting. john brought up the fact that democrats can change to the republican party for one day to take part in the caucus. >> and independents. >> 5% of democrats have done so. could that make a difference? >> for haley, it's essential democrats come to the caucuses. my wife was concerned about somethings the republicans were doing. she registered as a democrat. she'll be there tonight and reregister as a republican to support haley. >> that's fascinating.

we're looking outside. you can't see this. when you're looking outside, the snow in someplaces is hip high. it's so cold your nose hairs freeze. my husband's going to be mad i said that. we all have them. the roads are a real issue, not so much in des moines. it's pretty good here. when you go to the rural areas, 99 counties, it's hard to get to certain places. do you think that will have an impact? >> iowans are tough. we take this seriously. i think iowans will show up. i think it will have a marginal impact. when it's 15 below and if your gravel road is shut, you may not be able to go. the impact of that is greater for somebody like trump and potentially haley because i think those are people that will support those -- people that support those two will be less likely to turn out than desantis. could help desantis. >> why do you think that is?

>> desantis will attract a group of people, what i would call people that will show up whether wind, hail or freezing rain. the people that support desantis are the republican that is go to every caucus. >> when it comes to donald trump, there's the factor of people thinking he's going to win big anyway and that may hurt him. the campaign is worried about that. >> yeah. if you think he's going to win easily, you may not need my vote. his supporters are more enthusiastic. a lot of his people are first-time caucus goers. they're not registered as republicans. if they decide it's too cold, that will have an impact on him. iowans are quirky. we'll see what happens. >> doug gross, thank you for being here. with just a few hours to go

before the iowa caucuses begin, the republican candidates are making last-minute pitches to voters. is there a chance any of them could topple the frontrunner, donald trump?

there is a lot of information out there. hamas is a terrorist group oppressing the palestinian people. hamas refused a continued ceasefire, a continued pause in fighting and more aid from israelis in exchange for just freeing more hostages. instead, hamas resumed attacks. not to protect the palestinian people or obtain peace, only to destroy israel.

we must stand against hamas and stand with palestinians and israelis for basic human rights. this election is a choice between results or just rhetoric. californians deserve a senator who is going to deliver for them every day and not just talk a good game. adam schiff. he held a dangerous president accountable. he also helped lower drug costs, bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message. you're looking at live pictures coming in from des moines, iowa, where it's a negative 9 degrees and there's still nine hours until the doors open for caucus goers.

the windchill right now negative 27 degrees. wow. our coverage continues with kate bolduan. she's on the scene in des moines. kate? >> reporter: it could be worse. that's what we're saying in terms of the temperatures. it's the first test of 2024 here. it's the first nominating contest of the presidential election cycle and the first moment when the polls stop talking and the people start voting. the candidates pleading with iowans to turn out tonight and in their final pitches touting the work they and their campaigns have put in. ron desantis has the largest ground game here. nikki haley has real momentum heading into tonight. here she was at a campaign event that i was able to attend last night. >> you get to set the direction for the country. if you will join with me in this movement, if you will join with

me in caucus, i promise you our best days are yet to come. >> reporter: so far donald trump has shown his support is resilient here no matter -- basically no matter what. joining me now is someone who knows a lot about all this, kate henderson, the news director of radio iowa. great to have you here. >> hello. >> give me a sense, the projections on turnout, before the forecast and the weather set in, it was going to exceed some were thinking the record set in 2016. now it's all over the map. what's your sense of how this cycle feels compared to the past? >> it's completely different because you essentially have an incumbent running and you have a whole pack of people, some of whom are no longer with us on the campaign trail who dropped

out. that has an interesting dynamic. the difference between 2016 and 2024 from the trump perspective is it was really organic in 2016, depending on the poll, popularity, people who were enthralled with the idea of donald trump. now these people know what donald trump is to them. that's a different dynamic. the other dynamic is he has an organization here and has done the precinct level organizing they didn't do last time. what we're going to see tonight is if that paid off in the caucus room because what happens is the first thing that happens is somebody local stands up and says, hey, you should vote for donald trump. if it's someone that everyone in the community or the precinct knows, that may make a difference. >> that's persuasive. >> that's what the caucuses are

all about. >> i'm always interested in smart people's take on the places to watch. i want to ask you about where are the places that you're watching tonight. you said that one county you're watching in particular is debuque. why is this the county to watch? >> in 2016 donald trump barely won, less than 1%, against ted cruz. nikki haley has had events there. she wasn't able to make it there yesterday. desantis was there sunday. it's a key missouri river county for folks. it used to be heavily democratic. it's flipped to republican in the past. donald trump carried it heavily, as he would say, in 2016 and 2020 in the general. that's one place to watch. >> what's another place you're watching? >> lynn county, cedar rapids

metro. donald trump finished third there in 2016. nikki haley has had several events there over the past few weeks. desantis is going there today. >> if trump turns it out there, that's a sign. if haley is holding strong there, that's a sign. if desantis is gaining strength there, that could be something to watch. i want to a nikki haley event yesterday, packed house. i met a man, mark, he had been trump all the way in 2016 and 2020. he said now trump is too di divisive and he was now for nikki haley. after the event, he was visibly emotional about what he heard. he admitted he's a bit of a cryer. he said that, for him, she was so grounded. she was so authentic. that's what he really saw. if that is what is connecting

with folks, what does that mean in iowa? >> it means she has momentum. people love a band wagon. they looked at that iowa poll that came out from the "des moines register" and they see she has some momentum. the other thing is that her story, her personal story, she talks about growing up in a small town. that sells well in iowa. >> talked about her husband. >> talked about her husband being deployed. the personal anecdotes she tells connects with the audience. then she talks about solutions and that resonates with people. >> is it clear to you what a second place victory looks like for ron desantis after everything he's put in here? >> the desantis campaign has, you know, all their chips in iowa right now. so they're counting on all of those people that they have on the ground who have been calling their friends and neighbors and saying, let's go to the caucuses. some of them arranged for

baby-sitting at the caucus site so parents can go and caucus tonight. we will find out if that kind of ground-level organization on his part will pay dividends. >> now we get to see the caucusing play out. thank you for coming in. wolf, back to you. up next, even as there's a lot of interest understandably so for what's going on in the iowa caucuses, let's not forget there's a war going on and it's escalating in the middle east. today a u.s. fighter jet shot down a missile launched from houthi rebel territory aimed at a u.s. destroyer in the red sea. how the pentagon is responding to the clearly escalating tensions.

much more of our special coverage of the iowa caucuses is coming up. first, the u.s. mill stair central command says u.s. fighter aircraft shot down a cruise missile fired from a houthi-controlled area of yemen. this just days after the u.s. and uk launched strikes against houthi targets in yemen. we're now learning another ship was hit by a missile off the coast of yemen. what's the latest? >> reporter: we have seen more launches since sunday in which a u.s. fighter jet shot down a

missile in the red sea. we learned from u.s. central command there was a ballistic missile fired against a u.s. owned and operated vessel. the uk said this happened south of yemen. it was a u.s. owned and operated carrier sailing through the red sea. there was minor damage to the ship and no injuries. the ship itself remained sea worthy. it continued on its way as part of its voyage. the houthis have said any u.s. asset was a legitimate target. this perhaps part of the retaliation the houthis promised. worth pointing out the u.s. carried out a follow-up strike 24 hours later.

the pentagon and white house expected a houthi response. the expectation there will be something bigger coming from the houthis. it's the third or fourth launch we've seen from houthi territory following the u.s. strikes. the houthis retain and have quite a bit of military capability to threaten red sea shipping here. the u.s., the uk and other coalitions trying to make the waterways safe. wolf, what you see here playing out, it's impossible to say the waterway is safe even as the u.s. tries to get there. >> or en lieberman there for us at the pentagon, thanks very much. also the gilgo beach murder suspect is expected to appear in court. rex heuermann now facing a

fourth murder charge. he is the prime suspect in her death. heuermann has pleaded not guilty to the first degree murder charges. authorities discovered the remain of the gilgo four in 2010. the biden administration has directed texas to stop obstructing border patrol operations along the border after a recent incident led to the drowning of a woman and two children. agents were barred from the area by state officials. the homeland security department has labeled texas' action as unconstitutional. texas' military department denies impeding access. president biden is on route to philadelphia where he's expected to volunteer at a food bank to mark the martin luther king jr. day of service. these are photos from previous years. this will be the third time

president biden has volunteered on the holiday. he visited with the first lady jill biden in 2021 and 2022. coming up, some of the former president's strongest supporters in iowa identify as evangelicals. how their support could be key to winning the caucuses tonight.

it is caucus day in iowa. the iowa caucuses kick off this evening. we talk about the importance of the evangelical vote in iowa. in the overall population of iowa evangelicals make up 12% of

the voting population. that does not tell the story in a republican caucus. they can be 50%, 60%, even higher. let me show you where they are in the state. located largely in the northwest here and in the northern section, not far from sioux city and other locations in the south. the darker the color, the higher the population of evangelical voters. that's mattered a lot in the past. we talked about ted cruz in 2016. keep an eye on those areas there. you can see ted cruz, the areas in yellow, the areas with the densest evangelical population. these are areas where ted cruz did very, very well. now, a lot has changed since 2016. i want to show you something that's remarkable. let me put up the evangelical filter again. these counties in the northwest have some of the highest population of evangelical voters

there. in 2016 donald trump in those two counties, he was not even among the top three voters. ted cruz, marco rubio, ben carson finished first, second and third in sioux county. donald trump wasn't the leader of evangelical voters in 2016. times have changed. take a look at the new "des moines register" poll. evangelical support, donald trump's at 51% among likely caucus goers with evangelical support, ron desantis at 22%. that's how much donald trump -- the inroads he's made with evangelical voters. wolf? >> thank you for that update. we're following all the final pitches of the republican candidates in this first big event for the 2024 white house.