good morning and welcome to our viewers in the united states and around the world. i'm wolf blitzer with john berman. we're here in new york. i want to welcome you to our live coverage of the iowa republican caucuses. we're now just a few hours away from the first nominating contest of the 2024 presidential race. 40 republican delegates are at stake tonight as thousands of iowans gather and caucus for their candidate. by the end of the day we may know if donald trump's grip on the republican electorate is strong enough for him to cruise to an easy nomination, or if he'll face a tougher fight. >> after months of campaigning

and millions of dollars in ad spending, the weather could be the biggest story tonight. snow and frigid temperatures are affecting the entire state. much of the state, all of the state is going to see below zero temperatures. some significantly below zero. this morning donald trump is launching a string of attacks against his rivals, saying, quote, a vote for vivek ramaswamy is a wasted vote and he claims nikki haley and ron desantis are losing badly to joe biden. both desantis in nikki haley do better against joe biden than donald trump in the polling. the "des moines register" poll says most likely caucus goers will be voting for donald trump. we have our team in iowa now covering these campaigns.

let's begin with kate bolduan and sara sidner live in des moines right now. guys? >> the food here at the mars diner is drelicious. >> and you burn extra calories in the cold. >> wonderful. given the cold, there are things going for each of the candidates given the weather concerns. ron desantis has the biggest ground operation. that could be beneficial given bad weather. nikki haley, she is expected to do better in urban areas where you would assume that the roads are more clear, easier for people to turn out. donald trump has the most enthusiastic supporters. we've seen that in the latest polling, which makes it more interesting to see how this plays out tonight. >> you're hearing from different people who have endorsed nikki haley. we sat down with mr. gross and he said, we're a little

concerned about the rural areas and people getting to the polling places, getting to the caucusing places, partly because the roads are a huge concern. they are so iced over in some places that people are not going to take a chance on their own safety in order to get out and do this. however, people are serious in iowa. they know they're the first. they know they can create, as you mentioned, momentum. they know everybody in the country is going to be talking about them. they take this very seriously. if they can, they will get out. you may see quite a few people saying, i don't care. i'm going to get there no matter what. >> kate henderson was saying with the desantis campaign they're organizing baby-sitters to be at the caucus sites in order to allow people to get another reason to go there, one less reason that they stay home. i thought this is just all part

of this wild, wild night about to play out, which is the iowa caucuses. >> finally it's here. wolf? >> if the caucuses were like a bills game, people would show up with letters painted on their chest. >> the weather forecast in iowa reminds me of growing up in beautiful buffalo, new york, where the weather got chilly. our coverage continues with steve joining us from cedar rapids. steve, what are you hearing from the desantis campaign? what are you hearing this morning? >> reporter: well, they are out and about holding three events in the western part of the state, doing everything they can to just get as much enthusiasm and support from their caucus goers heading into tonight. i'm here at jersey's pub where he'll be speaking before people go to the iowa caucuses.

he's put so much time and energy into this state. they need a successful evening here. what does success look like? they've defined that differently. early on he was committed to winning the state. they said they had the resource tresources to win here. recently they've said they'll have a strong performance. here's what he told our dana bash earlier today. >> people are going to say there's only two possible nominees, donald trump or governor desantis. we're the only ones that have strong support among bedrock republican conservative voters. to win a republican nomination you have to be able to do that. i think iowa will show that very clearly. >> reporter: of course it's one thing for him to believe that. how do new hampshire and south carolina primary voters interpret the results? that will determine whether he's

successful here and will be determined by whether or not his donors decide to put a new infusion of cash into his campaign that will carry him beyond the early primary states. >> interesting. steve, in cedar rapids, iowa. eva, what's new from the nikki haley campaign? >> reporter: wolf, nikki haley spent the morning at the drake diner, a popular spot in des moines. from being here early -- there earlier this week, the cinnamon french toast very good. listen, she's appealing to iowans up until we get to caucus time. leaning on them to get out and caucus for her. she's centered her campaign on this electability argument. arguing in the fall she would be the best person to go up against president biden. she's also talked extensively about how she has executive leadership experience. as the former governor of south

carolina. she talked about her time at the u.n. to talk about how she has strong foreign policy chops. something she really resists are these conversations about maga republicans. sometimes trump will talk about maga republicans, who is and who isn't maga republican. she she said the voters aren't talking about that or thinking about that. take a listen. >> this is not what americans want to talk about. they want to know why inflation is high, why everything's more expe expensive. they want to know how we're allowing the lawlessness at the border that's out of control. that's what they want to talk about, no whether someone is maga. >> reporter: when i was at that diner, i was speaking to an iowan who told me he's been caucusing since the 1980s and this bitterly cold weather won't

stop him. >> eva mckend, thank you. joining us now jeff kauffman who's the chairman of the republican party of iowa. kate, you have the interview. >> reporter: thank you, wolf. >> jeff kauffman is here with me, the chairman of the republican party of iowa. how many interviews have you done up to this? >> over 50. >> 51 will be the best one. you know iowa republican politics better than most. how does this one feel? does it feel different? >> even with the weather and even though we have a frontrunner and have had a frontrunner, this feels like 2016. i have made that comment for the last two months. the enthusiasm, the passion, the level of activity, the crowds showing up, you would think it's a polling horse race. from the republican point of view, this is going to be an amazing organizational effort on

our part. i have not seen that slow and i really think it's going to translate into robust attendance despite the temperatures. >> i heard you say the weather is actually the least of your concerns in terms of turnout. what are your greater concerns when it comes to turnout? >> with weather, specifically the cold temperatures. if we have ice or falling snow, i would be concerned. the one thing that occupies my time a lot, we'll have a lot of new republican voters. i'm talking about people who are disgruntled with the democratic party or want to be republicans or independents. i'm not talking about democrats playing games by being a republican for a night. my day tomorrow is about unifying the party. that's my job or i need to leave that job. i want to make sure when they come into this caucuses tonight

that they feel welcome, that they understand all those -- all their views are welcome to have that debate and discuss. they can right at that time -- we're doing more than vote for our candidate, we're working on our platform. >> are you hearing there's going to be a lot of first-time caucus goers? >> yes, that's what i think. i've been to multiple events for the canadadidates. i go to them all. i've been taken aback by the number of people that this is their first caucus. >> when you have one candidate, almost like an incumbent, one candidate who's been so far ahead of the polls so consistently, whose support adds up to more than the second and third candidates combined, what impact does that have on caucus goers? >> traditional thoughts on that

is that it might have a potential depressing event, and it hasn't. i honest to goodness think there's a masters thesis in political science on what's going on here. any time you're dealing with president trump -- i don't mean this as a negative -- we're rewriting political science rules. i think this is something else. there's a lot of people going tonight that are focussed in on a candidate. they're passionate about that candidate. there's a lot of people going tonight that want a different direction. i think more so than in the previous caucuses we've had, the surrogate speeches may have a greater attempt to impact. >> why do you think that is? >> well, i think that in many cases -- first of all, we had some events canceled. >> true. >> iowans are methodical about who they're talking to, checking off those boxes. i sense that people are going

back -- a lot of republicans that may not vote for donald trump, still like donald trump's policies. i think people are conflicted. i think it's anybody but joe biden for the general election. even the self-described never trumpers -- >> i heard from someone at a nikki haley event, they want nikki haley, but if it was trump versus biden, he would vote for trump. >> this is the reason why we need a caucus starting this process. tonight, if somebody's undecided, they can listen to the speeches. >> if any candidate questions the integrity of the outcome tonight, are you prepared for that and what would you say to that? >> i would say to you right now that any attempt to criticize our process -- what other candidates do outside of this, you know, in terms of getting people there, i don't know. we have the most transparent process. i don't mean this as a metaphor.

in the country. we count the votes in the room where they're cast. after they're reported, people in the room that cast the votes can look at it on our site. you're going to see results in real time. if that's not enough, we have a paper trail for every single precinct. i would go so far -- i rarely use the word never. i have never been able to come up with a scenario where our process tonight could be questioned in terms of its s integrity and transparency. >> if you're questioning the outcome of this election, come see this guy. jeff kauffman, thank you so much. thanks for having us. >> you bet. >> john, wolf? >> good conversation, kate. coming up, what's at stake during the first in the nation caucuses? the most important result tonight might be who finishes second. we'll discuss that and more when we come back. also, president biden's

campaign says it hauled in some $97 million last quarter. ahead, what his team is watching for in today's caucuses. and a brutal artic blast pushing across most of the country. nearly 80% of the u.s. will see below freezing temperatures. we have detail just ahead.

the iowa caucuses are upon us. by the end of the tonight this map will be filled in. all 99 counties will have some answers. number one, will donald trump's performance match the polls? this would be an historic margin, pushing 50%, the highest total we've ever seen. george w. bush had 41% in the year 2000. in addition to donald trump's performance, we're watching turnout. the highest turnout we've ever seen was in 2016, about 187,000. you've been hearing all morning long about how cold it is. there are concerns the weather could depress turnout. possibly. if it's lower than 187,000, you'll hear people question maybe enthusiasm for the republican candidates heading into the general election. as we look towards the

candidates themselves, ron desantis, one of the things obviously he's banking on is his organization. in the latest "des moines register" poll 62% of desantis supporters say they're definitely showing up. that's more than donald trump or nikki haley. will his organization pay off? for nikki haley, one of the things to watch, can she replicate the map of marco rubio in 2016? he did well in urban centers like des moines and suburban areas and college towns. iowa city is where the university of iowa is. not coincidentally these are counties that joe biden in the 2020 election also did well in. these are the areas where nikki haley wants to run up the score, run up the vote total if she's going to have a good night. wolf? >> interesting.

joining us now s.e. cupp and democratic strategist maria cardona. maria, what is the biden campaign looking forward to in tonight's caucuses? >> i think most importantly to see if the polls play out. if donald trump wins, which i believe he will, but then the key will be what is that margin? does he go up more than 50%? does he keep the margin -- do the candidates keep the margins smaller? that will tell a lot about his strength within the republican base, the republican maga base. that will tell them how competitive he is within his own primary. we all still believe he's going to be the one who comes out on top, but i think this iowa one and then the next couple of states is going to determine how quickly he wraps it up. >> s.e., which of the candidates

do you think has the most at stake tonight? >> without a doubt ron desantis. his campaign has staked it all on iowa. that's not a dumb thing to do. voters there are favorable to ron desantis. they have set expectations that he needs to do well tonight. he said very recently, tonight could upend trump's lead. kim reynolds, the governor of iowa, said she expects he could win tonight, not just come in second, but win. those are very high expectations. we don't expect he'll win, although who knows. he needs this -- he needs a very good, very strong second place finish. >> maria, if trump gets more than 50% of the vote tonight, what will that message send? >> it sends the message that he absolutely has a strangle hold within the republican base. importantly, i think this will indicate to the biden campaign that the republican primary is

shaping up as they thought it would, as again as most of us think that it's going to. for them, they're really looking at it because they strongly believe that this contest, the whole election is going to come down to a contrast, a stark contrast between what joe biden will mean poor the future of this country, the future of democracy, the future of rights and freedoms and the economy, as it's getting better, versus what it would mean under a donald trump presidency. that's believe that's the contrast that joe biden will win in november. >> s.e., how much clarity do you think the caucuses will provide as far as trump's ability to lock up the nomination? >> iowa's important. iowa's not the same as new hampshire or south carolina voters. if we have been under indexing

trump's lead and he's more successful tonight than we think, that will give a clear indication that this nomination is going to be very hard to wrestle away from donald trump. if we get a strong showing from desantis or nikki haley, there are plenty of republicans and moderates and independents who want a trump alternative and it's not joe biden. if a trump alternative emerges, whether haley or desantis, and has a good pathway, it could narrow the lead and shake trump off his game. not to mention all the legal problems surrounding donald trump. >> you think the brutally cold weather in iowa could benefit one of the candidates, maria? >> i think it could. as we saw in the poll, desantis has followers who are very enthusiastic about coming out to support him. in this kind of weather, where you are thinking donald trump -- even donald trump supporters, oh my goodness, he has this huge

lead, he doesn't need me. i'll stay home. if plenty of those do that and you have the desantis supporters saying, he needs me because i want to show up to show everyone there's an alternative to donald trump, that could narrow donald trump's margin and in a narrow donald trump margin, because he also -- now they're trying to dampen expectations. he's been saying i'll win more than 50%. if that doesn't happen, that could lead others into being alive for another couple states. >> right. >> important information. thank you have much, s.e. and maria. ron desantis makes his case and takes questions directly from voters. i'm moderating a cnn town hall from new hampshire tomorrow night at 9:00 p.m. eastern only here on cnn. breaking news right now. the defense secretary lloyd austin has just been released from the walter reed national

military medical center. austin was admitted to the hospital on new year's day after experiencing complications from a procedure to treat prostate cancer. oren lieberman joins us now. what are you learning? >> reporter: defense secretary lloyd austin has been in the hospital for two weeks. there has been no outlook on when he might be released until we got the update that following that admission into the hospital two weeks ago, he's come out of the hospital. he's not returning straight to the pentagon. he will be working remotely. his doctors say he's recovering well. he doesn't have any follow-up procedures for the prostate cancer. from the statement, secretary austin underwent a series of medical tests and evaluations and received nonsurgical care to resolve some lingering leg

pains. he was discharged home with physical therapy. austin himself put out a statement saying, i'm grateful for the excellent care i received at walter reed and want to thank the outstanding doctors and nursing staff for their superb support. as i continue to recuperate, i'm eager to fully recover and return as quickly as possible to the pentagon. no out look on how long it might take for him to return to the pentagon. he has access to secret communications and he authorized the u.s. strikes in yemen from the hospital. talked to president biden from there as well. it's also necessary to say that austin failing to disclose he was in the hospital caused some problems for the administration especially because president biden didn't know his defense secretary was in the hospital

for several days. >> we wish secretary austin a speedy recovery. oren lieberman, thank you for that report. we're just a few hours away from the official start of the 2024 election season. how will young voters factor into the race? we'll discuss with the chair of the iowa young republicans. that's coming up next. plus, we'll take a closer look at the history of the iowa caucuses. which past winners went on to secure the nomination and win the presidency? we'll discuss when we come back.

iowa may have gone first in the presidential nomination season for half a century. for iowa young voters, this is new. it's bitter cold, possibly keeping older republicans home and it may give the younger crowd a better chance of being heard. joining me now is the chair of the iowa young republicans mary westin. i want to ask you, first, do you think the gop is doing enough to prioritize its appeal to court young republicans in iowa? >> oh, my gosh, yes. not only all over the nation, the young republicans national federation is an auxiliary of

the republican national committee. here in iowa the young republicans and the college republicans are very close with the iowa gop and chairman kauffman has been fantastic at reaching out to us, making sure we're involved in the caucuses and getting out to events, getting involved in the campaigns. i don't think they could have done any better with the young population in iowa. >> i just want to note that we're here in the mars cafe in des moines, iowa. things are getting wild around here. everyone's getting their coffee and talking about what's going on. that's fun. i want to ask you, what are young republicans here in iowa talking about. what are they asking for? what are the policies they care about? are the candidates listening to them? >> you know, i've got a lot of questions from reporters about this. my answer has been, you know, as much as policies are important, we talk a lot in our meetings

and our gettogether about the term electability. who is the nominee that's going to beat joe biden? who is the nominee that's going to reach out to the independents and moderates and make sure they defeat joe biden in november? obviously the southern border is important to young people and the economy with a lot of us being fresh out of college and starting to build our savings accounts. that electability piece is something we talk a lot about in the young republicans group. >> this is an unusual time. you have historic low temperatures, which we keep talking about. it is part of the story here. there are not people walking around casually on the street. it's not easy to get to places. you also have the parties, not the state government running the caucuses this year. is that going to change anything in your estimation here? >> you know, i think just naturally less people are going to go out. it's dangerously cold.

for those of you from the south that might be laughing, it's dangerously cold. ten minute exposure to the skin can cause frostbite. i heard you guys talking about ron desantis, maybe his folks will show up because they know how critical this caucus is, whereas trump voters might not show up. i expect to see that tonight. i encourage all iowans to get out and caucus. bundle up. we've worked too hard for this. >> i'm curious because every single presidential election we hear people courting the young vote, people trying to get young people out to vote. are there enough young republican voters to make a difference in your estimation in this particular presidential election? >> of course. you know, in this election particular -- and this is my first caucus.

at age 23 the 2023 caucus was for trump. with the amount of exposure we've had with political conflict in this country, my experience in iowa, being pushed around a lot in high school and college for my beliefs, that pushes me more to want to go to the polls and support my candidate. i think that's true for a lot of young people. i think we'll show up in historic numbers and get out there. this year you have younger candidates. vivek ramaswamy is an historically young candidate and a lot of people are ready to support younger candidates. >> that's interesting. donald trump is the frontrunner. he's the oldest of the candidates running. when it comes to young people, is it vivek or who that they feel the closest too and they feel is prioritizing young republican voters the most? >> yeah, you know, i think vivek has done a good job directing a lot of his rhetoric at young

people. however, i know from talking to members of our group they don't think vivek has properly represented the young population in a professional manner just in comments made about chair woman mcdaniel, low attacks at nikki haley. he's not someone we want representing us necessarily. i see a lot of people who want to point to donald trump or ambassador haley or governor desantis in this caucus. i think we're not going to have any surprises tonight, but i think a lot of young people are split between those three candidates primarily. >> mary westin, thank you so much. i'll see you in cedar rapids. i know the temperatures are dangerously cold. just ten minutes and you can get hypothermia. please be careful. thank you for being on with us. >> thank you. >> sara sidner, interesting

conversation. all eyes on iowa, including president biden's re-election campaign. he just raked in nearly $100 million. what his team is closely watching for tonight. we'll be right back.

look at this. these are live pictures out of des moines, iowa. the temperature there is negative five degrees. the windchill, negative 20 degrees. caucus goers are set to kick off the 2024 race for the white house in just a few hours from now. the biden campaign understandably is closely watching the iowa caucuses today.

the campaign's communication director telling cnn they're gearing up to make the election a fight about the future of american democracy. we're learning president biden raised $97 million for his re-election campaign and the democratic party in the fourth fund-raising quarter of last year. tonight it's all about the gop and the iowa caucuses. john berman is with us. john, over to you. >> let's get right to iowa and bring in cnn's political director. david, thank you for being with us. you're luckily in washington, d.c., not iowa. >> i got out of iowa saturday before the cold snap got bad. >> i love the iowa caucuses. they're the first caucuses i haven't been to since 1996. the question is why do we love iowa so much? is it because it's so predictive of the republican caucuses? >> it's not that, john. there's something magical about 150,000 people showing up to kick off a process that ends up

with somebody sitting in the oval office representing 350 million of us. that's why we love iowa. in terms of predictability, no, especially in republican caucuses. ted cruz won them in 2016. he wasn't in nominee or president. same with rick santorum. he won iowa and went nowhere. you have to go back to 2000, you covered this campaign, to george w. bush who had a big victory in iowa and went on to become the nominee and president of the united states. that 41%, john, that he got in terms of his level of support on iowa caucus night is a record in the iowa republican caucuses. one we'll see if donald trump can break tonight. >> let's talk about that. the expectations for donald trump. the "des moines register" poll had him at 48%. that's a high number. >> it is.

a lot of people will watch to see if he gets over or under 50%. we'll watching the margin of victory over who comes in second or third. i want to note, if we go to the map in iowa, how will donald trump -- who didn't get close to 50 the last time around, eight years ago. how will he do it? he's looking to boost strength up here with evangelical voters, hard-core conservative republicans. he's looking to perform better than he did in the suburban areas than he did last time. take a look. go back to 2016's map. what you see here is there's a lot of ted cruz yellow in their that donald trump is looking to replace with his own supporters this time around. there's a lot of marco rubio orange and this is where nikki haley is playing for votes and also where donald trump is hoping to get some support. can he boost the big

conservative vote out here and can he make some inroads with sur suburbans that he didn't have eight years ago? >> it's a different donald trump than 2016. we were looking in the sioux county. donald trump didn't finish in the top three there in 2016. obviously it's unlikely that's the same case tonight. talk about the battle for second place. >> it's an important battle for two reasons. one, ron desantis has made -- he's trying to recreate that ted cruz map. he was trying to dig in to the evangelical vote. visiting all 99 counties. he put everything on iowa. if he comes up in third place, distant third place, it will be difficult for him to get the money needed to continue this campaign. nikki haley is trying to recreate that rubio map from 2016, those orange areas in suburban areas. she's making an electability

argument. the suburbs went against trump in the general election in '18 and '20. she's saying i can win those votes. if she ends up in a strong second place, she's going to have a bunch of momentum to make the case why she should continue on. >> it will be an interesting week heading to new hampshire. david, you are magic. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> wolf? >> now you know why he's or political director. he's the best. guys, thank you. the buffalo bills -- my buffalo bills are in need of snow shovellers. this as a brutal artic blast is punishing much of the u.s. we'll have the latest forecast when we come back.

there is a lot of information out there. hamas slaughtered more than 1200 innocent people, holds innocent hostages, and raped countless innocent women. and now hamas is trying to hide sexual violence against women. they don't want those women to be able to talk about what happened to them stand with palestinians and israelis for basic human rights. stand for all women.

million people are under windchill alerts extend across significant portion of the united states. in new york the buffalo bills are in need of snow shovellers ahead of tonight's in need. one shoveller tweeting this photo, if you're going to the game tonight, brace yourself. you'll have to shovel all of this off your seat. as we say, john, go bills. >> i was going to say, you're completely objective. completely objective when it comes to the buffalo bills. >> let's go, buffalo. in iowa temperatures forecast to stay at or below zero. well below zero, which is obviously one of the biggest issues facing caucus goers tonight. let's get to our meteorologist in the weather center. what are you seeing, allison?

>> i think the key thing >> these stretch all the way from the canadian border back down to the texas mexico border and everywhere in between. we are talking feels-like temperatures of -45.. bismarck, the current temperature is 13 below. the feels-like is 37 below. des moines specifically, the temperature, minus 6, but it feels like minus 20. when we fast forward into the evening hours, as many folks are heading out to the caucuses, look at some of these temperatures. again, that windchill, minus 32 in des moines. minus 29 in davenport. same thing in cedar rapids. pretty much across the entire state the windchills are expected to be 20 to 30 degrees below zero. the cold air is in place elsewhere. that means the moisture moving through is in the form of snow and ice. that stretches from texas all the way up to connecticut. this is the system that's going to be making its way into the

mid-atlantic tonight and eventually into the northeast tomorrow. this means, wolf, the snow drought for cities like new york, d.c. and philadelphia could end up being broken in the last 24 hours. >> allison, thank you very much. allison chinchar reporting. to our viewers, thanks very much for joining us. i'll be back 4:00 p.m. eastern for cnn's specialized coverage of the iowa caucuses. this is "cnn news center." "inside politics" is coming up next. >> announcer: today the iowa caucuses. in this high-stakes race, who will come out on top? cnn breaks it dodown with the bt team. coverage s starts todaday at 4:.

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