good morning, everyone. so glad you're with us. big morning after the iowa caucuses. i'm poppy harlow with phil mattingly, and your kasie hunt

already made her way to new hampshire where we have team coverage of the presidential race after donald trump's blowout victory in iowa. he won the caucuses by a huge margin making it clear that he still has a dominant grip on the republican party. >> trump crushed the competition with 51% of the vote, ron desantis narrowly beating nikki haley for a distant second place. today all three candidates will be campaigning eventually in new hampshire with just one week left until that primary. this is a live look in new hampshire where desantis will face questions from voters at a town hall tonight. >> desantis and haley are vowing to turn the tide next week in what could be a make or break primary. trump is already acting like this race is over. >> i can safely say tonight iowa made this republican primary a two-person race. our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the trump/biden nightmare.

>> because of your support, in spite of all of that that they threw at us, everyone against us, we've got our ticket punched out of iowa. >> i want to congratulate ron and nikki for having the good time together, we're all having a good time together. and i think they both actually did very well. >> i don't know that he'd be saying that if he hadn't won by 30 points. the question still stands this morning, what, if any, is the possible path forward for nikki haley and ron desantis. both will end up in new hampshire at some point today. for nikki haley, new hampshire has really been critical to her entire race f. you look at the results in iowa, what can you pull from them to try and get a sense of if there's a path forward. donald trump winning by nearly 30 points in the state. a state that if you go back to 2016 he actually lost by 3 points to ted cruz. where you see yellow ted cruz won in the state. that did not happen last night.

donald trump winning 98 of the 99 counties. it was a blowout in every sense of the word. when you look at the entrance polls of iowa voters we got last night tells you about how this race went and whether or not there's a path forward. there's been a lot of discussion about nikki haley having a path forward with suburban voters. donald trump when it comes to education, those with a college degree, 37%, actually more than nikki haley and ron desantis. no college degree, always a dominant base play for trump and his team. did so again in iowa. 67%. what about, though, particularly as you head into new hampshire when you talk about ideology, moderates, independents, whether democrats would come over as well. that is a pathway forward for nikki haley. it shows at least in these entrance polls what was not a huge segment of those polls. 65% of those who identify as moderates support nikki haley. 65% of conservative, the republican party is a conservative party at its core.

south carolina, which comes right after new hampshire is a conservative state, and south carolina is a state that most people when you talk to them realize even if it's where nikki haley was the governor, that is not exactly -- she is going to have a dominant performance. where does this all lead us? obviously we are now headed into new hampshire. this is where everybody's going to be focused on what happened in new hampshire in 2016, donald trump won that state, won it han handily. it is an interesting dynamic. it will be interesting to see how it plays out. that is where we find kasie hunt. that's where the new hampshire race is really headed right now. some candidates already there, and kasie is with jeff zeleny who is not only an iowa expert but spent many days and beyond. what's up? >> phil, jeff and i both made our way here overnight last night. jeff jeff, you were at the airport when we ran into nikki haley's people kind of coming through. normally there's more than just one candidate coming through on

that tarmac. it says a lot about the race. what'd you make of the body language of the haley campaign and where they are coming out of iowa to here where she has probably her best shot? >> this field has already w winnowed tremendously. that's long been iowa's role. she's the only one, look, the last thing i wrote down in my notebook from last night is when she said -- she's here to stop the trump/biden nightmare. that of course is her mantra going forward here in new hampshire. >> let me stop you. it's not just the soundbite, it's also the ad they're putting money behind. let's play it. >> the two most disliked politicians in america, trump and biden, both are consumed by chaos, negativity, and grievances of the past. the better choice for a better

america, nikki haley. >> so nikki haley -- or trump and biden's faces next to each other in a nikki haley ad, i was struck by it. what do youic make of it? >> completely struck by it. this lays it out in very stark terms calling it the nightmare trying to combine the two of them, conflate them. that works among a lot of independent voters here. look, a you will of our surveys show a vast majority of americans want something else, want a new choice. but it also speaks to her limitations, i think. for all the times that she said that all of desantis's eggs were in iowa's basket, now they're all in new hampshire for her. it limits her growth, i think. >> let's talk i mean big picture thr , this is going to turn into a delegate race. how is that math workable for anyone not named donald trump? >> it's very, very, very difficult. the reality is she and ron desantis who's flying to south carolina today to do a little bit of a head fake before he

comes here, they are trying to accumulate the delegates in case something happens with this race, perhaps with donald trump's legal cases or other matters. she needs a win here in new hampshire, and then she'll sort of figure out her strategy from there. you're right about the winner take all after super tuesday, which is meaore than a month aw. it's very tough delegate math. for now we've seen new hampshire sort of as she would say correct iowa. we've seen it be an echo. aisle thinking back to 2000. george w. bush came with a head of steam out of iowa, a huge margin. trump's is bigger, but john mccain slowed that roll here. hillary clinton did the same with barack obama. so as you have seen this as well as i have, new hampshire can change things. but going forward, it's still the same tough math. >> it definitely is. i mean, and it's -- you just never know with new hampshire. it can really change the course of things, but it's usually in a situation where the entire field

is much less predictable, period, where there is not a front runner that is as solid as the one we've seen in donald trump. jeff zeleny, thank you. phil, poppy, back to you. >> kasie, thank you, i just learned about manch vegas and why it's called that. we'll get back to you soon. cnn political commentator, anna navarro, cnn political commentator, adam kinzinger, biden white house communications director, kate bedingfield, and former senior adviser to president obama david axelrod, all very senior and important and opinionated at this table. we're so glad you're here. i want to start with you, ax. >> some more senior than others. >> you were watching phil's magical -- everyone was glued to it very closely, that tied with what we just heard from jeff and kasie, is this thing wrapped up? >> look, i think the odds have

been very long from the beginning for anyone taking on donald trump as he gained momentum. ironically with each indictment he picked up steam. you look at national polls right now, and you average them. he's got a 50 point lead. no one has ever -- thank you. no one has ever. >> putting ax's ear piece in. like i said, it takes a village. he is -- he's 50 points ahead. no one's ever had a lead like that is and lost the nomination at this point. and that's what makes this race different. it really is donald trump's party, and the problem is that these candidates are trying to finesse that and trying to finesse the unfinessable by sort of not saying the big thing. chris christie did, and he left the race because it wasn't a message that republicans were

willing to hear. but you know, it seems like a blemish to have been indicted four times and all of that. no one wants to talk about it. no one wants to talk about january 6th because republican -- the republican base won't have it. >> and haley and desantis now have a really practical problem in addition to how do they find a lane to message to voters that, you know, we see kind of a fairly narrow path looking at the math. they also have a practical problem now, which is money, and how do they continue to raise enough money to keep the campaign moving forward? how do you make a case that differentiates yourself from donald trump that also lays out a believable, a credible path to the nomination. it's a very, very narrow path and convincing people to give you their money, to keep your campaign going, that's a really tall order for both of them. >> it's probably a bigger problem for desantis than it is for haley. a lot of his big donors. first of all, donald trump subsists on small donors. people that he fools and dupes

into thinking that, you know, he's this martyr and this christ-like figure taking all this for them, and they keep giving him their hard earned money. desantis was really based on those corporate donors. the first day of his campaign when he launched his campaign he gathered a bunch of very wealthy people, corporate donors, lobbyists in a room at the four seasons hotel in miami, florida, to dial up other rich people for money and for donations for him. a lot of those folks have moved now to haley, and i think that's where they're going to stay, eking out a two-point second place in iowa is not going to bring him back. >> when he said i got my ticket punched to new hampshire, i think he meant greyhound. he's completely out of money, and i don't think people are going to give him money because there isn't a discernible path forward. >> i think with desantis, he started, it actually wasn't a bad plan at the start. he like had this assumption that donald trump was going to fall apart, which we all kind of

assumed he'd fall apart because he's getting indicted, right, in earth one, that's actually what would have happened. i think the assumption was, hey, trump's going to fall out and desantis is like i'll be here as trump number two and i can inherit all of the disappointed maga base. and i think had that happened, he actually would probably be the leader right now, and he didn't do that, and the problem is he didn't have the agility to notice that wasn't happening and he continued to try to out trump trump, and you can't out trump trump when trump's there. >> i'm not sure about that. i'm not sure he would have kept those donors. it's very- >> i'm just talking about support, not donors at this point. >> it's very hard to keep corporate donors when your campaign is based on attacking disney, the largest business in your state. i think a lot of folks who were giving him money from the business community looked at this and said, wait, wait, wait, wait. we don't want this going on nationally what he's doing in florida, banning books, going after the largest employer in the state, going after drag

queens. but you know, going after the college boards, eliminating dei. we don't want this nationally. so i think he just -- he did too much, what he said, he kept 100% of the promises, that legislature, which allowed him th to do that probably did him very little favors. >> kasie, can we bring you in here? i know you have a question for the congressman. >> just groaned in fear. [ laughter ] >> come on. >> congressman, you know, i'm interested in ax's take on this too, but congressman, those numbers that we saw from iowa where 32% of republican caucus goers in the entrance poll, they said that it would be disqualifying if donald trump was convicted of a crime. we've been kind of reading it the opposite way. wow, look at that 60%, 65% who say he is fit, but i had a

really conservative operatives look at this and say, this is the most conservative electorate possibly, you know, in the country and a third of them have a problem with this, and that means that it's almost impossible for donald trump to win a general election, let alone for republicans to keep the house and keep the senate. do you agree with that assessment? do you think this changes if trump is the nominee? and how much do you think elected officials and what they have to say about it will matter in that? >> i think it matters. i think that's right. because i saw that and i'm like, look, the one thing joe biden needs to do is to be able to bring some republicans his way. it doesn't have to be every republican, but some republicans his way sk, and when you see th number and you take into account if he goes to trial, if donald trump goes to trial and all this information is made public. you know, not just the stuff we had on the committee, that was bad, but like jack smith is going to go way beyond that. i mean, i think they should be nervous about the fact that if this goes to trial, that number

could sink donald trump. now look, i don't think all that percentage is going to now go and vote for joe biden, maybe just a fraction of them, but even if they stay home or vote third party, donald trump needs all the votes he can get and joe biden needs all the votes he can get. >> it's a marge inal race. >> ax, what do you think? >> i agree this could come into play. this is one of the reasons trump is trying so hard to push the trial off until after the election. but, when it becomes a one-on-one or a race between biden and trump, i think the majority of those people probably will vote for trump because we've become so tribal in our politics. >> i agree with you. listen, i still remember 2016 when we all heard those access hollywood tapes and the evangelicals and the paul ryans and you know, the elected officials turned on him for like five minutes, and then when it was obvious that he was the nominee, that he was the

candidate, they all lined up behind him. republicans, i think, are far more disciplined in that aspect than kdemocrats are. maybe it's just that i'm jaded and have lost all hope. >> i don't believe that. i wouldn't believe that for an absolute second. no cynics at this table. david, adam kinzinger, come back, we've got a lot more to get to. ron desantis will be in new hampshire tonight for cnn's town hall moderated by wolf blitzer, you can tune in 9:00 eastern on cnn. >> team biden says they are not scared of trump. they can beat him again and one top surrogate said the other candid candidates in the republican primary are maga light. we're going to be joined by j.b. pritzker, we'll talk about it all next.

today in new york, the accused go go beach murderer will be back in court following that proceeding, the suffolk county district attorney and police department are set to hold a news conference and announce a, quote, significant development in the investigation. rex heuermann currently faces three counts of first degree murder for the killings of three women between 2009 and 2010. brynn gingras joins us from new york. do we have any idea what these new details are going to be? >> reporter: phil, like one lawyer told me, we don't know until an indictment is unsealed, but of course we are fully expecting that fourth charge against rex heuermann for the killing of maureen brainerd barnes, the fourth woman in the gilgo four. she was a 25-year-old sex worker

from connecticut. she was believed to be the first victim of the gilgo beach killer. rex heuermann, the new york architect suspect in this, he wasn't expected to be in court until next month. the district attorney said, hey, i need an earlier court date. we know that the grand jury has been continuing to hear evidence in this case, you know, as soon as last week they were still hearing evidence. we have heard that the district attorneys say that rex heuermann was the prime suspect in the killing of maureen brainerd barns. we're waiting to see what happens when court begins at 9:30. we're fully expecting an indictment to be unsealed. in that we could learn more details of what ties rex heuermann possibly, according to investigators, to the killing of maureen brainerd barnes. there was so much detail in that original indictment that was returned on the three other killings. when it comes to brainerd barnes, we know that she was killed in a similar fashion. her body was bound and around her leg was a belt that was keeping her tight, and it had the initials of w.h.

so that's something we're looking for. and on that was a hair. so we'll see if there was dna evidence that connected the two. court gets underway at 9:30. we'll hear from the district attorney, probably from the other attorneys as well, and we'll of course keep you updated on the developments. >> please keep us posted. brynn gingras, thank you. back to politics, vice president kamala harris projecting confidence that she and president biden can beat trump again. listen. >> you've seen the numbers, you know, do you think donald trump at this point is a foregone conclusion? >> i don't know, but look, if it is donald trump, we beat him before and we'll beat him again. >> after the iowa caucuses were called last night, president biden said the former president is, quote, the clear front runner. the election was always going to be you and me versus extreme maga republicans. there is growing concern among some democratic allies, particularly those aligned with former president obama's two successful campaigns that the biden campaign is underprepared to face the coming challenge. and in the words of one former

senior adviser, it needs to get into gear. listen. >> the president and his campaign need to get into gear, and they need a message, and they need a message that is -- that takes in not just democracy, but the day-to-day concerns that people have, and they need to prosecute it every single day through every single surrogate. that's what winning campaigns do, and there are signs that that's beginning to happen. it has to happen faster because the threat is clear. >> with us now is a member of biden's campaign 2024 advisory board, illinois governor j.b. pritzker. always enjoy having you on. you know that voice, i don't have to tell you, that was david axelrod to us just a couple moments ago. is he right? >> he is right in the sense that the message has to be prosecuted every single day, and up to now, we really haven't seen voters show up anywhere to tell us who actually is going to be the front runner for the republican

nomination. polls are polls, but i don't think anybody believes polls all that much these days. donald trump now clearly established as the front runner, may be likely to be the republican nominee and so that makes a clearer choice for people. recognize that and i've been saying this all along that the republican party is the party of donald trump, even the other folks that were running in the iowa caucuses yesterday, ramaswamy and haley and desantis, all were parroting all of the extreme views of donald trump and they were unwilling really to take him on. and so now, you know, it's clear for democrats that we can go straight at the message of the extremists. what's their message? they want to take away women's right to choose. they want to, frankly, cut medicaid, medicare and social security, and they want to take away food support for the poorest children in america. those are easy things for us to talk about. the kitchen table issues that matter to people, jobs, rising

wages, the creation of jobs and bringing manufacturing to the united states, all things that joe biden has done, not donald trump. >> the question is why that's not resonating. i mean, just look ing at the ab polling and it aligns with our cnn polls. the president's 33%, you dig into those numbers like immigration, only 18% approve of how he's handling the border. only 31% on the economy. you're saying the message has to be clear now, the voters have spoken, not just the polls. what does the president need to do differently, governor? you've taken issue with this administration on immigration on the border? what does he need to do differently and say differently? >> well, again, let's start with the economic situation in the country. until people truly feel the benefit of this economy, right, they haven't been registering in the polls that they're in favor of the people who have created this opportunity for them, but the truth is that now that we're

months and months into the recovery of the u.s. economy, and so many jobs have been created, and income levels have gone up above inflation as inflation has fallen, as gas prices have fallen, as mortgage rates are falling, you know that in an election year if the economy is going the way of, you know, in a positive direction, the election is likely to go the direction of the incumbent. so i'm very pleased, though, with the work that joe biden has done because the contrast between these two visions for america is clear, right? joe biden's been standing up for working families. he's the person that has exhibited empathy for the american people, understands the problems and tries to address them. donald trump is the one who's exhibited after, you know, all these many years i think we all know about donald trump, no empathy. >> it is the economy stupid as the saying goes. that's what's so confounding is with so many of these economic

indicators better, why that is not helping the president, at least not yet. i want to ask you something about what you said last night. you said there's no difference between the republican candidates in this field. you went on to say whether you like your maga trump agenda wrapped in original packaging or with high heels and lifts in their boots, i hear that dig, governor are you saying that the view of the biden administration and you is that nikki haley, ron desantis are an equal threat to this country as donald trump? >> look, these are personality differences, but not differences on policy and not differences when it comes to the impact on the american public, right? the republicans, all of them, want to take away your freedoms. they frankly want to diminish your wages because they think that's good for the economy. the republicans are the ones who are taking away, again, food support for our most vulnerable children and families. i don't think that's where the american public is, but that is where the republican party is.

that is the republican party of donald trump. that doesn't used to be where the republican party stood. and one more thing, i know congressman kinzinger is on the program this morning -- >> can we just play for people, governor, what he said so that if they missed it, i want you to be able to react to exactly what he said. here it is. >> sure, there was some comment where he said it doesn't matter if, you know, trump or haley or whatever, they're all maga. like that is a way that you are going to as democrats push aside the people that you need to vote for joe biden is when people like j.b. pritzker says they're all just maga. like that to me is not how you put together a winning -- >> governor. >> well, the message, again, among all these candidates has been the same and bad for the american people. that's the point that i'm making. the fact that they're all extremists is what i think is going to be most beneficial to democrats who are frankly lifting up working families and

doing the right thing for them. i do think that congressman kinzinger has got it right in his own life. he separated himself from donald trump. he separated himself from the maga republican party. and that's not what nikki haley's done. that's not what ron desantis's has done. their criticism has been light. in fact, they're afraid of donald trump. maybe that will change in new hampshire. we'll see. it certainly changed for one day in iowa as they were trying to divide voters, make sure voters were showing up for them. the truth is all along, let's face it, they've been kowtowing, nikki haley even worked for trump. ron desantis won his race for governor because he took donald trump's support. so this is all one party with one extreme message. >> illinois governor j.b. pritzker, thank you. really enjoyed having you on. >> thanks, poppy. >> thanks. from the campaign trail to the courthouse, we've seen it repeatedly over the course of the last several months. we're going to see it again today. you're seeing cars, the former

president is expected to head to the courthouse in the coming moments. we will keep you postd on that. this time for the e. jean carroll hearing and the case that is going on there. you see the cars moving yet another day. courthouse, campaign, convergence. we'll have more. stay w with us.

just moments ago you saw this, donald trump's motorcade was seen leaving trump tower in new york city heading to federal court, this time for e. jean carroll's second defamation case against the former president. it comes after a skjury last ma found trump liable for sexually abusing and defaming carroll. today's trial involves comments

trump made about carroll while he was president and after the verdict. >> our kara skin el live outside the courthouse with more. he's going to choose to be in court. he didn't go for her whole trial, after a big win in iowa, the judge has been interesting about something he said trump cannot do in court. >> reporter: good morning, phil and poppy. donald trump will be arriving momentarily to this courthouse where he will sit through jury selection in this trial. it will also be the first time he has been in a room with e. jean carroll since the alleged rape took place. remember, a jury did find trump liable for sexually assaulting her and defaming her and awarded her $5 million. at this trial, e. jean carroll is seeking more than $10 million in damages, and trump will be here in person where he's not required to be. he did not attend the first trial. now, this judge moves pretty quickly. we expect him to seat a jury

today, and then it will move into opening statements. carroll's team will have their opportunity to make their case. trump's team will be able to put on their defense, and then it will get into the witnesses. of the witnesses we do expect e. jean carroll to testify again in this case as well as calling some other witnesses including an expert on damages. donald trump's lawyers say he wants to 1testify in this case. there's been a lot of back and forth about what he would be allowed to say because the judge has made it clear they are not having a do-over. they are not re-litigating the allege alleged assault and defamation. he said trump is liable for both in this case. the issue here will be damages. the question is what can trump testify to that relates to the damages. that is going to be one of the decisions the judge will have to make. trump's lawyer saying he has a right to testify about his state of mind, that he didn't intend to defame her. this is something the judge will make realtime. also interesting, trump's team never qualified an expert on damages, so he will not have any expert to come forward to counter e. jean carroll's claims.

this trial is expected to last just a few days. phil, poppy. >> that is interesting, kara sca scannell, thank you very much. joining us to discuss cnn's chief legal affairs correspondent, paula reid. i understand the courthouse campaign kind of confluence that we've seen over the course of the last couple of months. i don't understand it in this case. >> yeah, i don't get it either. >> he's setting himself up for disappointment. i think this is going to be a lot more like what we saw last week with the federal appellate argument where you didn't see him go in, you didn't see him when he was inside, there was no role for him, and then he had this hastily arranged press conference to get some attention. he's not going to get the return on investment here that he got last week in the new york civil case where there are cameras in the hall when you walk in. there's cameras when you walk out. he got a chance to talk. there's a pool spray. you have none of that here, and of course he didn't participate in the first phase of this trial last year. so he may not fully understand just how little attention there is to garner right now,

especially today with jury selection. therest there's no role for him. >> the core of this case is how much he will have to pay for what he said. after he was found liable, he went on air with kaitlan collins on cnn and, again, according to e. jean carroll's team defamed her once again after that. >> yeah, it's surprising that he'd want to bring so much attention to this case, right? the facts have mostly been decided. we're once again talking about damages and sort of an inability to show any remorse or change. so again, i don't think there's a great return on investment in terms of the whole let's bring the campaign to the courthouse for this particular case and especially in this format. this is a federal courthouse. they don't play. there are no cameras. >> david, i mean, to ask you whether you would advise a candidate who's been found liable for sexually abusing and defaming someone to go draw more attention to that case, but i

guess does he just -- >> you're not going to be clever. >> it's not how i roll. but the idea that you can keep playing this game no matter what the case is, no matter where the courthouse is, no matter the attention you're going to get there, is it viable? >> two things, there is no r on donald trump's gear shift. his strategy is always go straight ahead, deny everything, you know, call everything a scam and a rigged deal. and i do think this is central to his project, his political project here that the whole system is conspiring against him because he is speaking out for his flock and they're trying to stop him, and i think he's fitting everything into this. i'm sure there are people in his camp, he's got rational people working for him who probably said, you know, it'd probably be better to be in new hampshire today than in new york at this very messy trial, but his attitude is i'm branding this thing, and all of it as one piece. >> he's really good at playing

the victim. i mean, he's actually really good at it. i'll credit him on that. he's always -- everything thinks he's the victim of everything. he's convinced people of it. and so i think by going to this, i maean, most normal sane peopl would say don't, don't draw attention to it like we're talking here. but if you're a narcissist who plays the victim game over and over again and it's working for you, how best can you appear more of a victim except to walk into the lion's den of, you know, this conviction and say i'm not scared of this. i'm a victim, even this, even this case against me is, you know, some government corruption or whatever. and i think that's what he's doing. it's like take it all head on. >> i think with the narcissism, at some point you need attention, you need cameras. you need that white hot light. this is probably the most we're going to see of him, the motorcade heading to the court. i think that he may not fully realize federal court is really different than that highly accessible new york court that he was in later last week.

no reporters in the hallway. >> no opportunity for him to step outside somewhere and have a press avail? >> sure, he can, and i bet that's what we'll see. i doubt he's going to step outside in the snow. i think that maybe a hastily arranged, you know, press conference at one of his properties like we saw, his fourth appearance last week when he was here in new york probably something like that, once he realizes there are no reporters roaming the halls in federal court, and there's no pool spray at the top. >> thank you, paula, david, adam. >> thanks, guys. how will trump's victory in iowa impacting the first primary in the nation. we're going to ask the dean of republican strategists as cacandidates s sprint towawards grananite state.e.

not just any whiteboard... ...katie porter's whiteboard is one way she's: [news anchor] ...often seen grilling top executives of banks, big pharma, even top administration officials. katie porter. never taken corporate pac money - never will. leading the fight to ban congressional stock trading. and the only democrat who opposed wasteful “earmarks” that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message.

all right, so after we had some frigid fun in the subzero temperatures in iowa yesterday, the cnn politics team, we have already made our way to new hampshire. it is a balmy nearly 25 degrees hear. nikki haley and ron desantis, of course, trying to make some sort of dent in trump's basically the feeling of his inevitability, especially after his dominant win in iowa. so with one week left, what would it take to win here next week? there is no better person to ask than long-time new hampshire republican strategist dave carney at granite winger who is here with me now. dave, thanks for being here. >> glad to be here. let's talk about who actually is prepared to win in new hampshire. who is doing the work on the ground and who you think might come out on top and why?

>> well, trump has a real organization, a grass roots organization. they're doing block walking with volunteers. they're doing local phone banks around the state. they have good data. they're targeting the low propensity trump people and everyone else is running event driven campaign. candidate comes to town, when the candidate leaves and goes somewhere else, there doesn't seem to be the kind of follow-up. you see this organically. people's front yards with signs, ro you know, trump has people's yards. other candidates are on the side of the road and the right-of-ways. people have the pickup trucks or the, you know, trump banners. there's a neighbor of mine who has a gigantic banner nailed to the second floor of their house. people have pained 4 by 8 on plywood on their driveway. i think the energy is with trump. the huge victory and eric kol lander who works for trump, who

will be the first guy to oversee winning in iowa and new hampshire at the same time, same cycle. >> the most recent cnn poll showed nikki haley within single-digits of donald trump, which is part of what generated so much chatter about, well, maybe she could actually beat him. what do you see in those numbers? it sounds to me like when we were talking about this off camera, this means an awful lot of undeclared people would have to vote for her. >> the poll had about 45% undeclared, independents in new hampshire in that sample. that would be ten points more than showed up in '16. so i think it's -- you know, it's doable, but even with that, you know, almost 50/50 republican and undeclared voters, she was still down, you know, pretty good single-digits, 7 or 8 points, and you know, her underperforming in iowa, it's a two-person race, she lost to ron desantis. and she was supposed to win. the poll, the des moines register poll had her in second place, she came in in third.

had mom there was no overperforming there. so i think it's going to be a tough road to hoe. >> so nikki haley says this morning that she only plans to debate donald trump or joe biden. there were some potential debates between her and ron desantis on the calendar here in new hampshire. smart move by her? >> you look at the other debate last week. she and desantis from the minute they said good evening, they started trashing each other. they didn't stop for two hours, and voters would be disgusted watching that. they didn't talk about them. they didn't talk about their plans. it was my website or your website. you're a liar, no, you're a liar. i mean, they're politicians. their lips are moving, they're both lying. in reality they didn't talk to voters. i think it hurt them. it made them small, and trump is large, and they need to elevate themselves. so it's a smart move not to go one on one with anybody right now. >> speaking of trump being large, obviously his win in

iowa, it was above -- the over/under there was really 50%, right? and they hit it. what is the over/under here in new hampshire on tuesday? >> well, i think they would be happy with a win right now, but you know, him getting 50% is possible. i think it will be in the mid-40s. you know, and the real question is, you know, the vivek people's, he's out, his 6 or 7% are requgoing to go to trump. desantis is going to underperform. haley only got -- according to polling, was only getting 65% of the christie vote. that was like 10 points. you would have thought she'd get 90 or close to 100%. the real question is how many undeclared voters come in. in iowa, democrats can switch on caucus night to register republicans switch out, but in new hampshire you got to be an undeclared or a republican. so it will have an impact, but he's getting 20% of the undeclared, trump is. so i think he'll do mid-40s and it will be a pretty widespread.

>> all right, dave carney, thank you very much. i hope you'll come back next time. we're back next week. >> come here early and often. today at noon on "inside politics" do not miss my colleague dana bash, she's going to have a sit-down interview with nikki haley. she's also going to talk to new hampshire governor chris sununu. must watch tv. >> kasie, thank you, that was a really interesting conversation with dave. glad he came to join you. we'll get back to you in a second. big night for hollywood, diversity y winning bibig atat delayed emmys. the stars shshining g brightest tv's b biggest nigight straighg ahead.d.

the emmys, tv's biggest night timely arrived four months delayed after strikes by writers and actors, but it came. >> a record number of trophies went to people of colors and three shows nearly swept the awards. cnn has the lights. >> and the emmy goes to -- >> reporter: the big winner? >> "succession". >> reporter: was no spoiler. >> bigger, faster, wilder. >> reporter: "succession" closed its fourth season with best actor. >> don't pick it up. i couldn't do the button. i wasted all my time hugging everybody. i love you all so much. >> reporter: best come by was more of a cliff hanger.

>> "the bear." >> reporter: "the bear's" wins became more clear after its cast racked up big wins. >> thank you for believing in me when i had trouble believing in myself. >> are you guys leaving or are you just going to sit there? >> what did you say? >> reporter: "beef" won five emmys, including the kpcharacte who embraced self-worth over suicide. >> judgment and shame is a lonely place, but compassion and grace is where we can all meet. >> reporter: the emmys opened with a standing ovation for christina applegate more than two years after announcing she has multiple sclerosis. >> multiple of you probably know me from that debut. i'm going to cry.

from "days of our lives." >> reporter: and shows like "cheers," "martin," and "the sopranoss." >> it warms my heart to see how women are doing in comedy now. >> reporter: not afraid to poke fun at what's been historically a man's game. >> what's the secret to working in hollywood for so long? >> that's easy, baby. the wage gap. >> reporter: social commentary was a theme throughout. >> i accept this award on behalf of every black and brown woman when has gone unheard, yet overpoliced. >> reporter: arerupaul, the mos honored person of color, after winning best reality tv competition. >> knowledge is power, and if someone tries to restrict your access to power, they are trying to scare you. so listen to a drag queen.

>> reporter: it was really a great night celebrating tv. anthony anderson who hosted was fantastic, and a huge night for elton john who became an egot winner joining that rarefied hollywood club for a win for his special "live from dodger stadium." phil and poppy? >> great piece opn a great nigh. we're going to get you to watch "the bear." >> it's a long story. thank you for being with us on a very important morning. new hampshire coming up. cnn "news central" starts after this. >> announcer: morning moment brought to you by viking. exexploring ththe world inin co.

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that fund politicians' pet projects. katie porter. focused on your challenges - from lowering housing costs to fighting climate change. shake up the senate - with democrat katie porter. i'm katie porter and i approve this message. this election is a choice between results or just rhetoric. californians deserve a senator who is going to deliver for them every day and not just talk a good game. adam schiff. he held a dangerous president accountable. he also helped lower drug costs, bring good jobs back home, and build affordable housing. now he's running for the senate. our economy, our democracy, our planet. this is why we fight. i'm adam schiff, and i approve this message.