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good morning, glad you are with us bright and early. i'm poppy harlow with phil mattingly. kasie hunt is joining us live in new hampshire where donald trump cruised to yet another victory. it is a victory that haley not only acknowledged but did congratulate trump on as she vowed to stay in the race through the primary in her home state of south carolina. >> i want to congratulate donald trump on his victory tonight. he earned it. new hampshire is first in the nation, it is not the last in the nation. >> that acknowledgement of reality not enough to appease the frontrunner who had this to say -- >> who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage before

and like claimed a victory? she did very poorly actually. she had to win. you can't let people get away with bullshit, you can't. just can't do that. and when i watched her, the fancy dress, probably wasn't so fancy, come up, and i said what's she doing? >> criticizing one's fashion and acting like you won when you didn't. what a weird idea. trump said he doesn't get angry, he gets even. so much for the message of unity. >> i really think it is time now for everybody, our country, to come together. i want to congratulate ron and nikki. they are very smart people, very capable people. >> that was so last week. goodness. and while trump did win last night, exit polls did underscore the warning signs haley spent weeks trying to highlight.

he does have a strong grip on the republican party, but a glaring weakness among independents and suburban voters. omar jimenez is live for us in manchester, new hampshire. the primary in south carolina one month out. where do things stand? >> reporter: election night comes and goes so fast. donald trump wasted no time telling nikki haley essentially this primary process is over after winning his second state in a row. that said, nikki haley wanted a two person race. she got it and despite the results here, she says she is not going anywhere. former president trump victorious in new hampshire. paving the way for him to clinch the republican nomination for the third time. >> when you win iowa, and you win new hampshire, they have never had a loss.

so we're not going to be the first. >> reporter: his sole rival nikki haley remains optimistic and vows to stay in the race. >> new hampshire is first in the nation. it is not the last in the nation. this race is far from over. >> reporter: haley is still trying to convince republicans that shift away from trump is the best path to victory in november. >> a trump nomination is a biden win and a kamala harris pres presidency. the first party to retire its 80-year-old party will be the party that win this is election. >> reporter: trump responded during his victory speech lashing out at haley, criticizing her for staying in the race. >> i don't get angry, i get even. we have to do what is good for our party and she was up and i said wow, she's doing like a speech like she won. she didn't win. she lost. >> reporter: haley is now looking ahead to her home state of south carolina. but her path for the nomination

is challenging after losses in the first two voting states. >> this election is over. it is time for the republican party to coalesce around our nominee. >> reporter: the former president also touted his endorsement from south carolina's senator tim scott. >> you must really hate her. no, it's a shame. uh-oh. >> i just love you. >> reporter: trump now wants to focus on his rematch with president biden. >> if we don't win, i think our country is finished. i do. >> reporter: biden won the democratic primary in new hampshire overwhelmingly and says it is clear trump will be the republican nominee. >> i believe 2024 is going to be the most important election we've had since 1863. i mean it. s reasons are clear. democracy is on the ballot. >> biden is campaigning on abortion rights and sharpening

his message against trump. >> i don't think that this court and maga republicans have any clue about the power of women in america. i don't think they have any clue. but they are about to find out. >> through all of this, nikki haley has maintained she is the best person to take on joe biden. but after winning two states in a row, trump is not buying that at all. the next 3r5primary of course i south carolina where haley team is already spending $4 million on ads to ss to propel her camp. that is on march 24. long time to help build momentum, but also a good bit of time to figure out if any potential lack of path forward is clear. >> it can certainly cut both ways to have that much time. omar, thank you. let's bring in kasie hunt.

she is in new hampshire again this morning. good morning to you. i wonder what haley's team makes of trump's speech. and i'll say it again, it was a nice dress, but to phil's more serious point, total shift in tone from trump last week to this week on her. >> yeah, good morning to you and phil. this -- look, haley's team viewed this, and i was talking to multiple supporters of hers right after speech gave the speech, they viewed the speech as a gift to her. they called it weird, they called it angry. as i was speaking to them. and it really i think showed you how much both her speech kind of her attitude toward all of this really seemed to get under donald trump's skin. it was a dramatic change in tone as phil showed from what we heard from the former president

in iowa. it is really the opposite of what trump's aides kind of wanted him to be portraying here. and i think that it illustrates to you what we're in for as haley decides -- tries to decide what she'll do in the context of this race. she's said she's going on to south carolina. what does that mean for her? it will mean every day she stays in, attacks from the former president on everything from her looks in the final days of the campaign we heard him misspelling intentionally her given name, putting up very unflattering photos of merging her face with hillary clinton. i mean, that is the kind of ugliness that we'll see i think day in and day out. if she remains here in this race. now, there is already this -- there is a "wall street journal" opinion page, editorial page piece out this morning that is already kind of getting attention from what i would describe as i guess both sides of the republican party. trump supporters, vivek

ramaswamy for example, pointing to this as an example of what is wrong with the republican party. so this editorial says if haley can remain competitive, there is an argument to stay in through the july convention. she could rack up delegates and see what happens if he is found guilty. and i've talked to a number of republicans who want the party to nominate someone other than donald trump. they want her to stay in the race for this very reason. so that is kind of the frame i think that she is going to have to grapple with here. but if she wants to stay in, she has to be prepared that one-on-one race with donald trump is always -- really puts you in a pretty harsh and nasty spotlight from him. >> and that piece really said a lot. i was struck by the line there is a case for contesting south carolina even beyond that if she can withstand the abuse and fill out her campaign message. she's in it for now.

phil to you. poppy, it is a good point made by kasie in terms of the dynamics of the race. the haley campaign kind of bet it all on the new hampshire independents hoping that they could deliver in a state where they outnumber registered republicans by a significant margin but it wasn't enough. let's look at what actually happened last night. this is the map, donald trump 56.4%. that is a sizable victory. 11 points is nothing to scoff of a given the money and time haley spent in new hampshire. but there are clear warning signs here. we've talked so much about the undeclared voters in new hampshire, why it is such a unique primary. 343,000 undeclared voters heading into primary day, almost 100,000 more than registered republicans. so how did they break? nikki haley was goig tng to wine

undeclared but a question was how much. when we look at the exit polls, when it came to republicans, 74%. that is a huge number to haley's 25%. independents, haley at 60%. that is a significant margin when you are talking about the numbers there and dealing with in undeclareds. but not enough. if you go back to john mccain's stunning victory in 2000, he was winning by more than 40 points. that is where haley needed to be. she wasn't there. but it does underscore some serious issues that republicans will have going into this race. i think this is a key thing to remember going forward. when you poll up where things are, apparently the magic wall is giving me serious attitude at the moment -- this is awesome. love when this happens at 5:00 a.m. >> it is all in that brain of your. >> the point is if you look at these numbers, when trump has 74% of republicans, that is a huge problem going forward particularly heading into south carolina. yes, it does allow might be who

wants to vote in their primary vote, but it is a republican strongho stronghold, more conservative base. and the big question for trump is how big are the warning signs here. when you have independents breaking the way that they did in new hampshire, that is a problem. when you have fewer republicans by a significant margin identifying the maga movement than they did in iowa, that is a significant problem. when you have the number of haley voters, more than 80%, saying that they would be dissatisfied if trump is the republican nominee that is a problem. that is an intra-party problem, a general election problem that haley has continued to outline. whether or not it does anything for her momentum heading in to south carolina, still very much a question. >> and the gap for the polling is in south carolina at least for now is more like this, maybe in three weeks could be this, i don't know. >> we'll figure it out. >> shame on the wall. >> nikki haley refusing to bow out making her case to stay in the race shifting her focus to november.

and we also have this breaking news out of russia, a russian military plane is down. down near belgorod. we'll tell you what we know.

i'm looking at the math and path going forward. and i don't see it for nikki haley. i think that she's run a great campaign. but i do think that there is a message that is coming out from the voters which is very clear, we need to unite around our eventual nominee which will be donald trump. >> you're telling nikki haley that she needs to get out? >> i just didn't see the path and the math. i hope she reflects tonight. i think it is time to move forward. >> i think that you will hear a lot about the math and the mpat. >> maybe those are the two bullets in the prep. >> that was ronna mcdaniel

adding to the pressure for some for nikki haley to drop out after trump's win in new hampshire. but haley is signaling that that she is still all in. and a memo she issued yesterday, haley campaign identified several states they have their eyes on moving forward. michigan on february 27 and several super tuesday states. the campaign says that they have favorable demographics for haley and all have open or semi open primaries. and john avlon is nodding yes, yes, yes. that is what she's counting on. also joining us, john avlon and out political commentators. john, let's start with that. path and math. >> i love what haley campaign is all about open primaries. i published an op-ed about this. this is fundamental. when phil was wrestling with the wall over there -- >> so mad. >> -- the key data to focus on

is haley winning more than two-thirds because they could participate. a better gauge to who is in position to win a general election. obviously trump was decidedly ahead with republicans and with conservatives. but i think that it is premature to call her out. and i think that she has time on her side. she may not have the math in terms of shear delegates count, but time is unlikely to be kind to donald trump's campaign as the court cases keep going on, as people realize that donald trump the guy who tried to destroy our democracy on the basis of a lie could actually very well be the nominee. that won't help with general election match-up numbers. >> and the other side of the time issue, c casey," you know campaigns end when they run out of money. haley campaign has gotten a ton of big donors. i think that they raised $1.5 million since desantis dropped out. what is your sense of the

durability of their fundraising over the course of a month where everybody is getting behind trump right now? >> yeah, phil, and john with all due respect, i see where you are coming from on time being on nikki haley's side, but i can't say i agree. i think as it grinds on, this will get tougher and tougher. if she wants to win, she has to put up a w somewhere and it is hard to see where that happens. to the question of money, i think that it will be different for haley actually than it was for ron desantis for example. i do think -- and i honestly would put some of the -- i'd put this question to jeff as well who is someone who, you know, has watched his republican party and dealt with the personal repercussions of what it means to take on donald trump. i do think that there is some big money out there that wants that as an option. i mean, that is why i was paying so much attention to the washington street journal edit it torial board when she said they want haley to stay in.

but i remember during the trump administration asking republicans what they would do, there has been this pipe dream out there from people that don't want donald trump as head of the republican party. and it just doesn't materialize. over and over and over again, it doesn't materialize. and jeff, i've been talking to a lot of people that are in the same space in some ways as you are. what do you want to see nikki haley do here? especially considering how nasty the attacks will get against her. >> inshe i think she finished c enough last night to keep the momentum going. not the numbers i wanted but close enough to stay alive. she's running against someone with 91 indictments. so it goes to the core of the republican problem. we only want to win the battle and not the war. we want to win the battle of the primary so we get ourselves in to all these awkward thoughts.

this is another herschel walker moment senate race. >> what is everybody drinking this morning? i think people are on another plan either. nikki haley ain't got no time. so either you get out now -- >> why not? >> with play a different type of politics in south carolina. that is why a lot of south carolina politicians never make it to the national scale. south carolina is a different animal. nikki haley has seen a bit of that when she was running for governor in 2010, they had pictures of her father with a turbine on, they talked about her religion, saying she had multiple affairs with all these different men. it was as nasty as you could imagine. they called her everything but a child of god. >> and she still won. >> correct. going through that again with the backing of the former president and plus the entire republican party save for three

united states congressmen and governor who have endorsed her and jeff dun duncan who i don'tw if that is enough, but this is not just next tuesday, it is four weeks of pummelling that she has to go through and only thing that she will lose is money in her campaign. >> and the blow is not getting endorsement of tim scott. but listen to what trump said. >> this is hard to -- >> listen to this, folks. >> did you ever think that she actually appointed you, tim? and think of it, appointed and you are the senator of her state. and she endorsed me. you must really hate her. no, it is a shame. it is -- uh-oh. >> i just love you. >> that is why he's a great politician. that is why he's a great politician. >> i don't know, man, that is a

lot of ass to be kissing to be hud director. i don't know, can you say that at 5:00 a.m.? i apologize to anybody in the control room. but i love tim. i know tim very well. i remember when tim was running for lieutenant governor of the state of south carolina, he was pulled a side and said you need to run for the united states congress. and when he was called up by nikki haley in the first district after serving a time or two to actually be a united states senator and like nikki does not really -- she does not command a lot of sympathy most times. but i felt really bad for nikki haley in that moment because she lost the race, she gave her all, she was being making agnanimous. and her quote/unquote friend was a part of the choir back there. and so there is a lot of things i can do, but i can't get down

with that. >> all right. stay with us, guys, still ahead on breaking news. >> more airstrikes on iran backed mmilitias. what it meanans for the e escalg tens i tensions in the middle east.

breaking news this morning. reports that russian military plane carrying 74 people has crashed in the belgorod region. those on board include 65 ukrainian service members who were being flown ahead of a prisoner exchange according to russian news agency quoting the defense ministry. let's go straight to fred pleitgen who is joining us in eastern ukraine. this is just developing. what facts do we have at this hour? >> reporter: yeah, you're right. this very much still in the early stages.

russians are saying that the plane crashed in belgorod about 5 to 6 kilometers from the actuality. and we have video that shows the plane coming down about is this an il 76 transport krirpt that the russian military uses. i'd say it is between the size of a hercules and c 17 that went down. and russians said there were 65 ukrainian prisoners of war on that plane and then also the crew and some people who are also accompanying those prisoners of war. obviously russians are saying not likely anyone would have survived the crash. unclear whether that is really the case. ukrainians have not commented. the big question though is of course whether or not the ukrainians may have been involved in bringing the plane down, whether or not there might have been some surface to air missile that may have been involved. certainly there are some indications that maybe that

could be the case from some social media accounts from ukraine. but right now, it is still very much unclear whether or not that might be the case. in any case, this is a huge incident for the russian military, this plane coming down. very large transport aircraft and also even think would of russia's main military hubs that they use for their assaults on ukraine.think would of russia's main military hubs that they use for their assaults on ukraine. belgorod is a military hub and used for the assaults on ukraine. so around the area, there are a lot of russian military bases and also airfields as well. a huge loss for the russians. and at this point in time, really unclear whether or not the p.o.w.s were really on the plane, whether or not the plane was taken down by the ukrainians. but it certainly seems as though this was an absolute gigantic crash that happened with a massive explosion. >> and so we don't know if the p.o.w.s were on the plane, right?

>> reporter: we don't know that with certainty. russians are saying that at this point in time. they claim that there were 65 p.o.w.s on board, but not clear whether or not that is the case and we certainly are right now trying to get information from the ukrainians as well. >> fred pleitgen, thank you very much for bringing us the breaking news. we'll keep everyone posted. and tensions in the middle east continuing to build after a new round of airstrikes against iranian backed militias. they targeted hezbollah headquarters and as well as training locations. and let's go to ben wedeman. this back and forth, we have seen is it for several week. always in the reciprocal frame that u.s. officials try to put it in. how dangerous is this moment right now? >> reporter: well, it is dangerous, but it was inevitable in a sense because on saturday there was a strike on u.s. forces in iraq which left four

with traumatic brain injuries. and this is the american response. keep in mind there have been 150 strikes on u.s. forces in iraq and syria since the beginning of the hamas war. and this is a cycle that has been going on since the beginning of the war. a spokesman saying that the strikes are unacceptable, they are undermining years of cooperation between the united states and iraq. keep in mind there are 2500 u.s. troops still in iraq as part of the war against isis in addition to 900 u.s. troops in syria. iraqis are also saying this is not helpful at a time when tensions are so high.

fears are high of a broadening regional war. keep in mind also that overnight the u.s. struck two targets in yemen. ninth of its kind in the last two weeks. the iraqi government is saying that it would be helpful if they stopped, many calling for u.s. pressure on israel to stop the war in gaza. that perhaps might reduce the tensions between the u.s. and yemen. and the situation in iraq and syria as well. phil, poppy. >> ben beadwedeman, thank you. donald trump scores a win in new hampshire. we'll take you live to the granitite state nenext.

welcome back. i'm kasie hunt here in amhurst, new hampshire at maryann's diner. i've been up for most of the

night. i don't know about our next guest. matt bowers, former candidate, lock time strategist. >> happy to be here. we'll power through this. >> and you and i have been trading notes and you've been talking to all sorts of republicans of different stripes. there was is this this sort of excitement from nikki haley supporters that it might be closer than they thought. seems to have landed in a slightly different place. why is that and how does it set nikki haley sun up? >> towns that closed as 7 are concord, bed ford, heavier independent voting towns. they are higher income and they reported early. so you saw the closer gap earlier in the night. and part of the reason you saw nikki haley's team for her to choose to go out and speak so early, that was a message of trying to get out there when the polls look good, send a message

to donors and voters as they try to make the case to move forward. >> in terms of moving forward, she talked about this is her home state, but that creates a unique set of pressures because a big loss there is that much more embarrassing. how are they thinking about that? >> you have to look at what she's been doing up to this point. she's been campaigning in south carolina, but they haven't spent any money. so they announced theed a buy, they put in place a couple million dollars of that ad buy already. and so i think that they recognize they will have to go out there and really make the case for her. so they will monitor and track and see whether her poll numbers go up as a result. she trusts her political instincts on south carolina. she's won in tough primaries there before. some slightly competitive general elections there before. but winning it four times.

last time on the ballot was ten years ago and over half a million new resident. donald trump has won the state four times as well. so i think that they will spend money, see where they end up. i'm sure that they will continue to assess whether there is a path forward. >> so the other sort of chatter around -- that is kind of emerging as the story line this morning, the idea that haley should stick it out, try to gather delegates through super tuesday in the event that there is something unexpected that happens with former president trump's campaign. whether something legal or unexpected curve ball. what is your sense of whether there is a willingness to entertain that and how is that playing out in republican circles? >> i think this is something that both not just nikki haley but ron desantis for a while was also thinking about with his donors. the difference is nikki haley will have the money to keep running and ron desantis didn't. and i expect that she will be able to raise the money necessary to continue to run into at least super tuesday.

that is obviously around the time when the supreme court will be making either decide on whether donald trump can remain on the ballot in colorado and maine. most analysts say that he can run. but doesn't mean there are a few donors holding out hope for something different. and i'm sure there are deep pockets to fund the campaign. >> for the viewers just getting to know you, you ran as climate change kevin mccarthy's choice in critical swing district and certainly an argument to be made that in the general election the seat stayed in democratic hands. a lot of republicans are saying and nikki haley was making the argument that donald trump means losing for republicans. but at the same time, you are

seeing john cornyn endorse donald trump. do you see a trump loss as in-ze eventable in the general election? >> i wouldn't say it is inevitable. in 2016 everybody thought it was a loss but we won. and so you look at the iowa caucus, a low turnout affair. only the most conservative activists showed up to vote. you look at the exit polling, a significant number said they showed up just to vote against donald trump. and so it is incumbent on donald trump and his campaign should he be the nominee to figure out how do we bridge that divide.

how do we change and how do we bring the voters who clearly are expressing a message right now back into the fold in time for november. >> certainly president biden is counting on people showing up because they don't want trump but that fear factor for them. also i think donald trump's campaign is counting on their candidate to give speeches more like what he gave in iowa than the one we heard in new hampshire last night. >> slightly different tone. >> slightly indeed. matt, thank you so much for being up early with us. up next here, cnn on the ground in new hampshire with voters asking them why. >> nikki haley for example did you ever give her any thought of popotential gigiving her y your?

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new hampshire 2k3gave donal trump a double digit win. and trump voters generally like who he is. very much so. while some haley voters seem to not like her all that much.

>> i think there is one candidate standing up for america. so is that how i voted. >> donald trump? >> yes. >> i like trump. he has rough edges on his personality, but i like his policies. >> i was a trump supporter for many years and now a haleyen if a. i think it is time for a change. >> what do you like about nikki haley? >> several things. one thing, she's not donald trump. >> nikki haley, did you ever give her any thought of potentially giving her your vote? >> no, because i very storongly feel trump should be the president. >> i like her but i'm going with the popular vote. >> so you think donald trump can beat joe biden? >> yes. >> i think trump has great policy, but i think a lot of chaos follows him and i think biden just hasn't done what needed to do to unite the country. so i think nikki is the best chance.

>> can i ask why? >> my conscience won't allow me to vote for a drcriminal. >> who did you vote for? >> donald trump. >> and why did you feel he was the one is this. >> because my life was a lot -- i think everybody's life was a lot easier, better, economically, everything. >> and i feel that his policies are aligned with making the country more stable and economically successful for even. and he is the guy that i think can run the country. i don't think that i'd want to go out and have a beer with the guy or hang out with him, but that is not what i'm voting for. >> i think the main reason i'm voting for her is i do feel that she is going to start to unite us. she talks about working with others. but it is sincere when she talks about that. >> i voted for nikki haley because i was voting against donald trump. 74 years old. i've lived in a constitutional democracy august my life.

i want to remain that way and i want my grandchildren to grow up in one. not a dictator ship. >> if it came to president biden and president trump, no hesitation i'd vowed for president trump again. but today nikki haley gets my support. >> in it becomes in the general election a donald trump versus joe biden, have you considered or struggled with who you would vote for? >> i'd definitely choose joe biden, no hesitation. >> back with us is our panel. let's hone in on one of the women we heard last there. speaking to our colleagues. her reason for her vote yesterday was to maintain a constitutional democracy. >> she said i'm 74, i've lived my whole life in a constitutional democracy and i don't want my grandchildren -- i want my grandchildren to live in one as well. and this is part of the crop. that is a stunning thing to hear

casually dropped. we're getting a little numb to it. primary voters in new hampshire feel that constitutional democracy is at stake if donald trump is elected. so you didn't just hear incredible deep divisions inside new hampshires, he is tdivisive within thatcoalition, but this woman is worried about the democracy. and i think that is the stakes of the race. >> and i think that it is important to watch, there is about 50% of the republican electorate that is rejecting donald trump. we've seen that in iowa, in new hampshire. and i don't think that we'll see it much in south carolina. it is a two person race. but there is going to be a portion of the electorate that is rejecting donald trump. i'm interested to see how many of those individuals will never vote for donald trump or he has work to do to get those individuals to come out and vote

for him. it is similar to the issue that joe biden has with different vo blinking lights are flashing, that you must do something to get the individuals back in your cohort. it is not just about the squishy middle. what the primary is showing is that it is not only about the middle and suburbs, but also the jeff country dacansountry --dun world. >> when you dig through the exit polls, we talk about will biden's base come home.>> when t polls, we talk about will biden's base come home. 88% of haley voters are disappointed if trump is the

nominee. 30% had some reservations. 30% just disliked donald trump so that is why they voted for nikki haley. you look at trump, 80% strongly favored him. his base is rock solid. people who like him love him. but this is a significant portion of the party who doesn't know what to do. >> everyone thinks because he has this solid base that that is the winning strategy. but he has a high water maurk of around 50% and that is the math problem created. yes, you have the suburbs that are just done with dufd. donald trump. no way that he will talk them into voting for him. we're numb to 91 indictments, to sexual assault verdicts, to chaos and lies? just all of it. yes, the republican party is numb not just to donald trump but to reality. when joe biden beats donald trump in november, postgame analysis will be absolutely

brutal. >> look, it is a problem within the republican party. they have numbed themselves. i think the danger of the postgame analysis is i think that we all know that if donald trump loses the election again, he will once again lie and foment discord and division. >> and we have to get there first. i think one of the obstacles that donald trump is now facing as well is you'll of the things that you name. but he is also going to have the vitality question that joe biden is answering to. because he is getting slower. donald trump is not the same person that he was when he ran when he was 73 i believe or 72 or 68 when he started this process. whatever it was. but he is 78 now. and there is going to be a question that he has to answer just as joe biden has to answer that question. so of all of those things that

you named, he also has to see whether or not he is fit for the job and has the vitality to do the job. >> we'll leave it there for now. come back soon, guys. >> and donald trump getting the big win in new hampshire, bruh he may be vulnerable in primaries. we'll go inside the numbers. and hopes that joe b biden will g get votes in novemberer.

good wednesday morning, everyone. i'm phil mattingly with poppy hearlow in new york. kasie hunt is live in new hampshire where donald trump has seized another victory and delivered a crushing victory to nikki haley on his seemingly inevitable march to the gop nomination. but in a seething speech following his win, trump lashed out at