good wednesday morning, everyone. i'm phil mattingly with poppy hearlow in new york. kasie hunt is live in new hampshire where donald trump has seized another victory and delivered a crushing victory to nikki haley on his seemingly inevitable march to the gop nomination. but in a seething speech following his win, trump lashed out at haley.

>> who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage before and like claimed a victory. she did very poorly, actually. she had to win. i find in life, you can't let people get away with bullshit. you just can't do that. and when i watched her in that fancy dress that probably wasn't so fancy, come up, i said, what's she doing? >> but here's the thing back on earth. haley acknowledged the reality of her loss and even congratulated donald trump. she did, however, vow to stay in the race through the primary in her home state of south carolina. >> i want to congratulate donald trump on his victory tonight. he earned it. new hampshire is first in the nation. is it is no the last in the nation. >> south carolina still about a month away. she will be highlighting what the exit polls underscored last night, trump clearly has a strong grip on the republican party, but glaring weakness

among independents and those suburban voters. we've got team coverage this morning. let's start off with omar jiminez. he joins us again this morning in manchester, new hampshire. haley's next goal is going to be to try to wrestle her home state away from trump in a matter of weeks. >> reporter: yeah, and you know, she's got some time on her hands, which as we've talked about before, the time could play to her benefit in building some momentum, but it also could be time in which a path forward or potential lack of path forward is made clear. i mean, look, donald trump wasted no time in saying that this primary process is essentially over, after winning his second state in a row. that said, nikki haley wanted a two-person race, she got it. and despite the results here in new hampshire, she says she isn't going anywhere. former president trump victorious in new hampshire. [ chanting: usa ] >> reporter: paving the way for

him to clinch the republican nomination for the third time. >> when you win iowa and you win new hampshire, they've never had a loss, there's never been -- so we're not going to be the first. >> reporter: his soul rival, nikki haley, remains optimistic, and vows to stay in the race. >> new hampshire is first in the nation. it is not the last in the nation. this race is far from over. >> reporter: haley is still trying to convince republicans that a shift away from trump is the best path to victory in november. >> a trump nomination is a biden win and a kamala harris presidency. the first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election. >> reporter: trump responded during his victory speech lashing out at haley, criticizing her for staying in the race. >> i don't get too angry, i get even. we have to do what's good for our party. and she was up, and i said, wow, she's doing, uh, like a speech,

like she won. she didn't win. she lost. >> reporter: haley is now looking ahead to her home state of south carolina, but her path for the nomination is challenging after losses in the first two voting states. >> this election is over! it is time for the republican party to coalesce around our nominee! >> reporter: the former president also touted his endorsement from south carolina's senator, tim scott. >> you must really hate her. no, it's -- it's a shame. it's a shame. uh-oh. >> i just love you! >> reporter: trump now wants to focus on his rematch with president biden. >> if we don't win, i think our country is finished. i do. >> reporter: biden won the democratic primary in new hampshire overwhelmingly, as a write-in candidate and says it's clear trump will be the republican nominee. >> i believe 2024 is going to be the most important election we've had since 1864. i mean it!

and the reasons are clear! democracy is on the ballot. >> reporter: biden is campaigning on abortion rights and sharpening his message against trump. >> i don't think this court and the maga republicans have any clue about the power of women in america. i don't think they have any clue! but they're about to find out. >> reporter: now, through all of this, nikki haley has maintained that she is the strongest candidate to take on trump -- or to take on biden, rather, but former president trump isn't buying it, after winning now two state in a row. nikki haley's team has already announced plans to spend millions of dollars on ads in the next primary state, south carolina. obviously a critical one. her home state. and a place where the former president has already lined up key figures against her. >> major, major endorsements, including the governor, omar

jiminez, thank you. >> let's go to cakasie hunt. she joins us in new hampshire again this morning. you've got some reporting on how haley's team felt about trump's speech, was also you made a great point last hour, she has to put a "w" on the board and when is she going to do that? >> reporter: right. and honestly, at this point, they can't answer that question. they can point to some states where perhaps they might do better tan others, but we cannot lose sight of where this race stands, big picture. it was historic that a non-incumbent president would win iowa, would win new hampshire, and it is extraordinarily difficult to envision a scenario where nikki haley really goes forward and takes him on in the traditional way. right now, the people that are holding out hope for her are talking about scenarios that relate to his legal problems or ore things that we can't see coming. now, the big question, i think, for donald trump, and when you talk to, you know, people kind

of around him, who support him, they really like the guy that they saw after the iowa caucuses, the one who thanked ron desantis, who thanked nikki haley, who came across as a gracious person who was trying to unite the party. i mean, it felt very different to us, right? gone was ron desanctimonious. all of a sudden, donald trump was using ron desantis' real name. that was not the donald trump we saw last night. instead, we saw someone who was clearly angry, who was focused on his politics of grievance. i mean, i think he said at one point, "i don't get angry, i get even." you heard him in omar's piece, that moment with tim scott, where he said, "you must hate nikki haley," anyone who covers nikki haley knows that's not the kind of guy tim scott is, and he steps up to the microphone and says, "no, no, i just love you." but we're back in that frame where republicans are standing behind donald trump's shoulder,

we saw chris christie in moments like that in 2016. it's all very familiar. and i think it really underscores where what we have learned about the electorate, which is that republicans do not want to move on from donald trump. i mean, certainly, people have been pushed out of the party who are now independents. we saw that here in new hampshire, even saw some of it in iowa. but the people that remain here as republicans, we sound like broken records, poppy, but it's trump's party now. >> yeah, it is. casie, thank you. get back to you soon. phil? well, she's not quitting yet. that's very clear. nikki haley vowing to stay in the race after that second place finish last night in new hampshire. so what can we learn about haley's performance in the new hampshire primary and where does her campaign go from here? i want to start with kasie's point. this is a really critical one. donald trump winning this race last night with just about all the vote counted, by 11 points. a little bit more than 11 points. that's a sizable victory. it's a victory that underscores his power within the party. and to demonstrate that, i think

one key thing to key on here is the party identification. the unique factor in the new hampshire primary was the independent voters. there are a significant number of, more than 340,000. it was a huge turnout night. the healy campaign needed those to turn out and they broke for her. 60% went for haley. the republican number that's so critical. margins need to be kept down with republicans. trump won republicans 74% to 25%. it is the story of the race that the party itself, the republican party, you hear it from the leadership, you heard it from the rnc chair, rana mcdaniel last night saying people need to coalesce behind trump. they believe that trump is the nominee. they believe haley has no path forward. so what is the haley path forward, if one actually exists? obviously, south carolina is next up. look at the results and you'll see why haley's theory of the case going into new hampshire makes so much sense. let's flip back to 2016. d donald trump won a much more fractured primary. winning the race with nearly 19 points. you look at all the red, all the

townships and cities where donald trump won. obviously, he won more votes at higher percentage. it was a one-on-one race here. but take a look when you pull out the counties that trump won back in '16. everything highlighted is a county that trump won in 2016, and you see all of the yellow in here. those are townships and cities that haley won. and there's one in particular i want to pull out. i think this underscores the theory of the case from haley's team. this is bedford, just south of manchester. this is the ideal demographic for the haley campaign. this is highly educated. this is wealthy, more suburban type of area. this is an area that back in 2016, donald trump won, fairly handedly, over john kasich who made the same type of theory of the case, his primary goal in the race. donald trump won this by 12 points. last night, haley won it by nearly 10 points. however, she needed to win it by more. that was the story throughout the course of the evening, is that even where haley was picking up independents, was picking up undeclared, was rolling up democratic kind of heavy towns and cities, it wasn't enough, because of

trump's dominance in the republican party. and here's where that gets problematic going forward. we've been talking about how south carolina is up next. that is the place where nikki haley was obviously elected governor. it is a place where brutal campaigns take place. if you want to have somebody that shared haley's theory of the case, john mccain back in 2000 stunning everyone, winning independents 3-1 to upset george w. bush, went to south carolina, was subject to multiple smear campaigns, bush won south carolina, kept that momentum to win the nomination. right now as it currently stands in our most recent polling, trump with a significant lead in south carolina, more than 30 points, has the endorsements of all of the senior party officials in that state. it's haley's home state. she has a month to prepare to spend to try to lay the groundwork. whether she can do it, you can tell, there's significant skepticism within the party. she's saying she can. poppy? >> the makeup of the electorate was so much more favorable for her in new hampshire than it is -- south carolina will be more like iowa for her. >> exactly. >> thank you, phil. this breaking news

overnight, a russian military plane carrying 74 people has crashed. who russia says was onboard. also, what we're learning about the moment that plane went down. also, a delta flight just seconds from takeoff in georgia when the nose wheel falls off. that's ahead.

we do have breaking news out

of russia this morning. take a look at this. what you're looking at is a plane going down. seconds later, a large explosion. russian officials say the plane was carrying 65 ukrainian servicemen ahead of a prisoner exchange. that is at odds with what ukrainian sources are saying, that the plane was not carrying p.o.w.s but instead carrying missiles. our cnn's fred pleitgen covering it all this morning. very early hours, this just happened. it is tragic. what do we know? >> reporter: so, poppy, there are a lot of things that are still very much in question about all of this. one of the things we can ascertain from seeing this video is that this was a massive crash that took place. the latest that we have is that this took place about 5 to 6 kilometers outside of a small village northeast of the city of belgorod. belgorod, of course, a big military hub for the russians. but as you were already mentioning, right now, you have

these claims and counter claims coming in from the russians and the ukrainians. the russians for their part are saying that there were ukrainian p.o.w.s on that plane meant for a prisoner exchange. the head of the parliamentary committee for defense in russia, he came out and he unequivocally said that the plane was shot down by the ukrainians. he said that it was three surface-air missiles that took down that plane. those claims coming from the russians. at the same time, you have the ukrainians, and this is information coming in from ukraine's state news agency, citing sources within the defense ministry of ukraine saying that there were s-300 missiles onboard that plane. those are surface-to-air missiles. however, they are often used by the russians to shell ground targets, often originating from that city of belgorod and hitting kharkiv in ukraine. so you have those claims and counterclaims right now as to what exactly was onboard that plane. however, one of the things that the governor of that region, of belgorod said, he came out just a couple of minutes ago and he

said that he is now sure that everyone who was on that aircraft died in that incident. again, the early stages still of all of this. we're still right to get the information that is incoming. right now, you have those claims and counterclaims, but definitely a huge incident that took place there. and obviously, a big loss of an aircraft for the russians, poppy. >> and very different stories from the ukrainians and the russians. thank you, fred. we'll get back to you soon. our coverage of the race for the white house continues. president biden not the only one who is looking ahead to the general election. nikki haley focusing on november as well, offering this message from her campaign. >> most americans do not want a rematch between biden and trump. the first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ come november, we will vote in record numbers. and when we do that, we'll teach donald trump a valuable lesson.

>> that was president biden shifting into general election mode after former president trump's decisive victory in new hampshire last night. biden's campaign says that trump has all but locked up the gop nomination, so now some of biden's top west wing advisers will be moving to his campaign team. >> it comes as leading democrats fear that biden's campaign is not adequately prepared for the fight ahead. arlette saenz live at the white house with more. good morning to you, but, there are some changes being made with key people heading to the campaign. >> yeah, there are, poppy. in president biden joe biden's mind, this is now a general election fight. there is a matchup between him and former president donald trump. and the president really tried to use the result of the new hampshire primary to drive that argument home to voters. he said in a statement last night, quote, it is now clear that donald trump will be the republican nominee and my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher. our democracy, our personal freedoms, from the right to choose to the right to vote, our economy, which has seen the strongest recovery in the world

since covid, all are at stake. the campaign even leaning into these biden versus trump matchups, releasing some merchandise last night, a t-shirt saying, quote, together we will defeat trump again. this is a point in the campaign that biden advisers have been quite eager to get to. they believe that once this would boil down to a trump versus biden fight, that the choice would become much clearer for voters. one of the challenges for biden's team going forward is actually executing their plan to secure a second term in the white house. and that is why you are seeing president biden make these changes to his campaign team. he is deploying two of his top advisers here at the white house over to the campaign. that includes general o'malley dylan, who wran his 2020 campain operations. she will be focusing on charting out the path to 270 electoral votes, and mike donlin who has a complete mind meddle with president biden when it comes to strategy and messaging.

he will move over to the campaign focusing on that messaging strategy and their paid media strategy going forward. this all comes as there have been some hand-wringing among democratic strategists over whether the campaign was structured in the right way to have a fully-functioning and successful campaign heading into november. so, perhaps some of these changes could quiet some of those concerns, but the white house, the president's campaign and his advisers really trying to treat this as an all hands on deck moment as they believe they are much closer to the general election now. >> certainly heading in that direction. two of his absolute closest advisers. watching the event yesterday, the president was interrupted a lot, and protesters show up. that's not a rarity, particularly at a bigger event like that. but it was almost entirely, if not completely, tied to the war in gaza right now. that has been an issue kind of bubbling within the democratic party. are aides concerned about that, particularly given how many interruptions in a public forum we saw yesterday.

>> you've really seen that almost every one of president biden's events, whether it's been campaign or white house-related, there have been been these protests relating to gaza. as you have seen some real frustration within the democratic party about the fact that president biden has not called for a cease-fire. perhaps yesterday was the most stark example of that, as there were about a dozen times that the president was interrupted. this is something that he will have to face as he is trying to court a democratic voters, especially arab americans, who are incredibly frustrated with the approach that he's taken towards israel. >> critical constituency in michigan in particular, but across the progressive basis. arlette saenz, thank you. >> while trump would like to focus just on biden, our exit poll shows warning signs in a general. only 25% of those who identify themselves as moderate went for trump. it was a similar story for those who identified as independent. haley beating trump there by over 20 points. trump's legal issues also standing out, more compared to

their importance among those voters in the iowa caucuses. 42% in new hampshire said trump would not be fit for the presidency if convicted of a crime. that was just 31% among those who caucused in iowa. joining us now, senior political analyst, john anchor -- and anchor john avlon, republican strategist and pollster, lee carter. john, you were just nodding your head through all of those numbers. yes, they are weaknesses for trump. are they an achilles heel for him? >> absolutely. elections are won by the candidate who appeals to independent voters and moderate voters. it's not simply a play to the base exercise. that's general election. and i think trump's weaknesses were revealed or heightened last night, in new hampshire, in a state which is predisposed to do that, the fact that they are open primaries and there are more independents than republicans. and i think president biden's strength with the write-in vote is an enormous sign of strength that hadn't been anticipated. but donald trump's fundamental

weakness, it underlines everything. he is kryptonite to the center of the electorate and that's who you need to win ultimately. >> lee, one of the striking comments that nikki haley made last night, i'm not surprised she's staying in and going to fight, heading to south carolina, but more importantly what lies ahead in super tuesday. the idea of the chaos and trying to get both parties rid of their current-front-running nominees or likely nominees at this point. take a listen. >> with donald trump, you have one bout of chaos after another. this court case, that controversy, this tweet, that senior moment. you can't fix joe biden's chaos with republican chaos. >> what i think is so strike about that message is republicans are locked in, right? >> yep. >> to john's point about who's not right now, on both sides to some degree, i think most people would agree with that? >> i think you're right. >> is that enough to change the dynamic? >> i'm not sure. because the independent voter is

so fractured, you saw voter after voter that was coming in, that were improved, people we talked to in focus groups, day talk about, yeah, i go vote for nikki haley because i'm voting against donald trump, but i still might vote for biden. her support is really soft. and i think that whole group of folks have really disenfranchised. only 4% of americans right now think that the political system is working for them. i think they're really frustrated. haley gets a lot of comments. i ran some surveys last night, and a lot of the comments i got is that she's a chameleon. they're not sure where she stands. and i think that she's got a really tough road ahead, whereas donald trump has really solid support. three quarters of his supporters had decided more than a month ago they were a support to him. eight in ten are solidly behind him. eight in ten are angry. i thought that was such an interesting statistic. they're angry with the way things are in the country. so when you heard donald trump speaking last night and he was so angry, i think that resonates with a huge swath of folks. it's a -- you've got to --

independent voters -- sort of betwixt and in between, doesn't really have a home right now, it doesn't seem like they're soliding behind anyway. it will be interesting to see how that turns out. >> look, i'm not surprised that trump supporters are angry. that's the brand he's been selling. it's january 6th. i'm also not surprised they're very intensely committed. they have bought into the election lie that's become a litmus test for so many people in the republican party, but it doesn't reflect reality. independent voters are not this mushy middle. independents and moderates are principled. they're not partisans first. they try to put country over party. and donald trump's got a fundamental problem. biden's got some challenges as well, no question. but donald trump's brand is chaos, anger, division. >> can we listen to some of that, to your point from last night. here it is. >> i said, wow, she's doing -- like a speech, like she won. she didn't win! she lost. but let's not have somebody take a victory when she had a very bad night.

she had a very bad night. i'm up and i'm watching, and i said, she's take a victory lap. and we beat her so badly, she was -- but ron beat her also. ron came in second and he left. she came in third and she's still hanging around. you can't let people get away with bullshit, okay? you can't. you just can't do that. and i watched her in her fancy dress, that probably wasn't so fancy, come up, i said, what's she doing? we won. >> do you think his -- like he's at all self-aware? >> no. >> about the irony of everything that he was just saying. >> that is a chef's kiss of a mash-up, right? every accusation is a confession for someone like donald trump. but that was particularly amazing. first of all, accusing her of saying she won an election when she didn't. which, of course, donald trump personifies that lie that has divided the american people. but then the really great moment is, you can't let people get away with bullshit in life.

when that's what he's been peddling at unprecedented levels. >> the thing that's so interesting, you can play that same clip for a supporter and a hater, and i did this, and i heard from them saying, he tells it like it is, he's such a straight shooter, i love his th authenticity, and you have someone like john listen to it, and you're like, oh, my god! >> his supporters think he's an authentic liar, and that's a difficult thing town pack, but it's important to say this, those two feelings are not equivalent when compared to facts. our north star is facts. it's the truth, as best we can attain it. and so it's fine for people to have different feelings, but the facts say, one side is actually right in saying that's unself-aware, you know, nonsense, because he denies election results and peddles bullshit. the other is based on partisan feelings and tribalism. the two things are not equivalent and we need to do a

better job of calling those out. >> john evans and lee carter, thanks. let's head back to casie hunt. >> reporter: sources tell cnn that donald trump spent the night seething because nikki haley is not dropping out, despite losing by double digits. and up nexext, the messasage repupublican vototers are sendiy handnding trump p another bibin talk all a about it.

nc welcome back. donald trump has made history with a decisive primary win here last night. >> i can go up and say to everybody, thank you for the victories, it's wonderful, it's wonderful. or i can go up and say, who the hell was the imposter that went up on the stage before and like claimed a victory. she did very poorly, actually. she had to win. the governor said, she's going to win, she's going to win, southeast going to win. then she failed badly. >> not a classic victory speech. this time around, his margin of victory was smaller than it was last week in iowa, but in the modern era, no non-incumbent has won both the iowa caucuses and the new hampshire primary without going on to win his party's nomination. joining us now, politics

correspondent at t"the new york ti times", michael gold, and senior political correspondent at "the wall street journal," molly ball. thank you both for being here. you were both with trump last night, is that right? so we saw there just the tone of his speech, right? like, aggressively going after nikki haley as an imposter. i just want to contrast that with what we heard out of iowa, which is, i think, where his top advisers, susie wilds, chrises a adv acevedo want him to be. this was trump last week. >> i want to congratulate ron and nikki for having a good time together. we're all having a good time together. and i think they both actually did very well. >> molly, where did that guy go? i mean, why can't he -- he could have just ignored nikki haley and said, look, it's me. and left it at that. >> and i'm sure that's the advice he got. and honestly, i think it would look a lot better for him this morning if he had been able to go out there and say, this is a

big win for me and i don't care what she says. but as trump himself said, he doesn't have much of a poker face. he's not capable of really containing his emotions when that's what he's feeling. and he's very annoyed that, you know, she said she came in a close second. he believes she came in last. and held would like her to gett of this race and she's not there yet. >> michael, is there something particular -- we know trump is often more aggressive in criticizing women than men candidates, but what is it about -- and you were there and you've been covering his campaign, what is about what happened last night with nikki haley that made him so angry? >> i think that he followed the expectations that he felt her campaign was setting, which is that she was going to win in new hampshire and she needed a win in new hampshire or come closer than she did. i think we're looking at an 11-point gap between the two of them. i think he had the understanding that a lot of people, a lot of analysts had, which is that if she didn't come within ten points of him, there was no reason for her to stay in the race. and when she got on that stage and basically said, yeah, i finished where i wanted to finish, we're going to keep going.

it wasn't the best showing that i could have had, but we'll have a race here. you saw on truth social, he called her delusional. he mentioned nit a speech. >> and the dress, i think, was not a very high-end dress -- >> he did say. >> do we know who the designer was? can we fact this claim about whether or not it was "fancy"? >> big picture here, you have a great piece in the "wall street journal" this morning that i really commend to everyone. and you write about kind of what trump's republican party is now. and you write, once presidents pushed amnesty, trump promised to immediately launch the largest deportation program in history, government decease for farmers, and fishermen. i almost felt like you were writing the final obituary for the party of reagan. is that what trump is doing right now? >> well, this is probably the 150th obituary i've written for the party of reagan over the past eight years.

and i may well have occasion to write another one. but this was -- i think if you step back a little bit, trump's basic political analysis here is correct. it's -- and he's saying, number one, that there's not a clear path forward for nikki haley. that you can't win if you don't win, and she has yet to actually win. and so a close second, you know, that and three bucks will get you on the subway. but second of all, if you actually listen to the policy content of his speeches, he is making a case that the republican party has changed. that it's time to throw out, you know, what he calls the rinos and globalists and put in this america-first agenda. he has changed the orientation of the republican party. i spoke to marjorie taylor greene yesterday. she's saying the same thing. she's saying this election is a referendum on the direction of the republican party and republican voters are sending a clear signal is what they want is what trump represents and not the old party of ronald reagan. >> we certainly saw that from actual registered republicans,

even though independents could vote in new hampshire. i think those points, honestly, they're not wrong. michael, the one thing that people that are still holding out hope that i talked to that donald trump will not be the republican nominee, and i mean republicans who think he's going to lose a general election in particular, they do raise the prospect of, what happens if he does get convicted. where do those voters go. when you talk to trump campaign officials, how are they thinking about handling that? are we just seeing -- we're going to see donald trump try to tear down the credibility of the justice system? and how do they think they get past that? >> they've already been doing that. he's been going after judges, after the justice department. i think there's a sense in which he's already undermining the prosecutions against him. obviously, he spent some time in court in a civil case, he's been attacking the judge there. i don't think they're that worried about it, to be honest. the sense that i have gotten is they feel like there's so much loyalty in the party, even if he's tied up in court while he's also having to campaign, he's got enough surrogates -- >> what about independents in a general election? >> i'm not sure what their plan is to address that.

it's very clear when we talk to people, independent voters don't like the chaos that they feel follows trump around. i asked some of the surrogates that were out with him what the buzz was about that? and their sense is that people will dislike joe biden so much, that they'll be willing to ignore trump's personality. tim scott basically said to me the other night, well, look, i think we have to look what's going on with biden, and when people are faced with a choice between biden and trump, they don't like the chaos that's happening and will go to trump's policy. and if they can stick to a policy message, they'll win these independents. >> yeah, both sides are arguing, the other guy is so bad, you've got to vote for me. thank you both very much for being here early with us at marianne's. >> poppy, phil? >> thanks, kasie. consumer confidence on the rise. how the white house hopes to convert threatened to votes in november. that's next.

the economy is brutal right now. we're getting killed with groceries, fuel bills, everything is just like, it's just -- it's unbelievable. >> the exit polling in new hampshire echoing some of the trends we've seen nationally on how voters are feeling as it relates to the economy. the economy ranked as the number one issue among those who participated in last night's gop primary. and the vast majority of them, 75%, ranked it as not good or poor. now, trump is winning those voters by a very wide margin. and it reflects the mood nationally. a recent abc news ipsos poll shows that 56% of americans disapprove of president biden's handling of the economy. it's why the biden campaign is paying such close attention to any indicators that may hint at a change in the mood in the months to come. joining us now is catherine rampell, "washington post" opinion columnist. you have a fascinating column,

because for months and months and months, the question has been, where's the disconnect between the top-line numbers and how people are feeling. by conventional metrics, how's the economy doing? >> well, there's the difference between how it looks and how it feels. yes, how does it look? honestly, pretty damn fantastic. so unemployment, 3.7%. it's been under 4% for two years now. that's very, very low. inflation, still evaluated, but way down from where it had been. it peaked around 9% year over year. lots of metrics show that it's come down. and gdp, this is the most recent annual rate from the third quarter of last year, very strong. so on paper, looks quite good. now, we come to how do people feel about it, and they are grumpy! so, this is a measure of consumer sentiment, consumer confidence, essentially. and you can see that like as of late 2022, early 2023, we were

about as weak as we were during the great recession. now, as a reminder, the great recession had unemployment around 9%, 10%. so people were just as grouchy then as they have been, you know, in the biggest financial crisis in recent history. but then you look at what's happened recently. so recently, you have a steady incline impact in the last couple of months. we've had among the biggest increases in consumer sentiment in, you know, decades. and so things seem to be looking better. not just my this metric. you ask people, are we in a recession, right? this is one of these standard questions. and you can see, that share has been steadily coming down. now, fewer than half of americans still a high share, but fewer than half say we're in a recession, so things are looking better. >> i try to ignore everything from the university of michigan, because of where i'm from, but the consumer sentiment number

last month, stunning. a 13-point bump. why? why is that changing? >> so there's a lot of controversy about this. but i think a few things to highlight. one is we've had some really strong bright spots in the economy. gas prices have gone down quite a bit, about 80%s in the last few months. stock markets, record highs. beyond that, you know, inflation has come down. in terms of price levels, prices are still higher than they were, but they've kind of settled. so you know, a gallon of milk is now a little over 4 bucks a gallon and kind of staying there. people are acclimating to it. so that's changed. but i think in general, people are feeling a little bit more comfortable with the fact that their wages are exceeding inflation. >> the piece that you write, it's a fascinating piece, a really great piece, but also draws an analog to 2012, why 2024 could be like 2012. explain that. >> so 2012, you may remember, a year ahead of the election, a lot of people were pretty down on obama's chances of winning

re-election, because the economy was doing so poorly. you had these horrible headlines from around a year out, and that was tightly linked to the fact that economic confidence was weak. as the economy recovered and as perceptions about the economy recovered, biden -- excuse me, obama's chances also recovered, and he won pretty handedly. >> the -- you have a great point in the piece that it may not be some massive boon to biden, but at least it won't be an albatross. is that what politically they should be looking for right now? kind of a wash? >> it's not going to be a weight on his campaign -- excuse me, i don't think it's going to be like a huge winning issue, but i don't think it's going to be a weight. and to be clear, there are differences obviously between 2012 and 2024, you know. trump is running. he has a much more loyal base than mitt romney. and you know, not every sector is doing great. in fact, manufacturing, the centerpiece of biden's economic campaign has been pretty weak, has been in contraction for about the past year. so not everything's great.

>> it's an interesting point. we'll have to see how it plays out. biden is showing up at a uaw event today, not saying why, waiting for an endorsement? want to tease that one. catherine rampell, great post, read it in "the washington post." thank you so much. still ahead, the ceo of alaska airline says they found loose bolts on many -- that's right, many of their boeing max planes. we'll hear from the head of the faa about boeing's quality concerns overall.

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new this morning, a boeing 757 jet loses a wheel just before takeoff. the faa and delta airlines reporting that one of the plights lost a wheel under the nose of the aircraft. this is moments before takeoff in atlanta. this is a recording of the communications between the 2004 and the plane saturday. >> delta 982. this is the aircraft looking at you. one of your nose tires just came off. it just rolled off the runway behind you. delta 982, tower, it sounds like we've got a problem. >> officials confirmed one tire on that boeing 757 separated.

it rolled down an embankment. the plane was taken off the taxi way, and this, of course, comes amid intense scrutiny for boeing, after a door plug blew off a boeing alaska airlines flight earlier this month. that a boeing 737 max 9. >> overnight, the ceo of alaska airlines spoke to cnbc about what they're still discovering on those planes which have been ground ed temporarily after th door plug issue and will stay that way until inspections are completed. >> we found some loose bolts on many of our max lines -- >> many? >> yeah. so those are things that are going to be rectified through the inspection process. boeing is better than this and flooigt 1282 should never have happened. >> pete muntean joins us now from washington. what did you make about what you just heard related to the loose bolts? you interviewed the faa chief. are they seeing something similar similar there? >> the plot thickening all the

time. and the comments really further confirmation of quality control issues at boeing, when it comes to building the 737 max 9. the head of the faa just told me that quality control is where his investigation is now focused. remember the faa grounded the max 9 in the u.s., as it figures out exactly how airlines should inspect their planes for problems. faa administrator mike whitaker told me in this one-on-one interview that the max 9 door plug is a good design, but only when it is properly executed. that's the big caveat. the bolts that hold the door plug in place are key. there are four of them. and if they're not installed, the door can shimmy out of its retaining grooves and shoot off with explosive force, like we saw back on january 5th on alaska 1282. here's the sound bite from the faa administrator saying quality control is now that agency's focus. >> we know this particular design has been in many other

aircraft that are not the max, that have millions of hours of operation. so there's a fair amount of comfort around the design and everything that we are seeing is confirming that. so it really takes us to production, manufacturing, maintenance, those types of issues, and ensuring that the pieces are where they need to be and all the bolts are in place. >> the faa now has inspectors on site of the boeing plant in washington. the goal, increase the scrutiny on where production problems might be occurring. the faa also now has a sampling of data from about a quarter of the max-9s in the u.s. and looking at measurements to issue ungrounding orders for those planes. he told me the faa is not going to let that plane back in the air until they're convinced this issue is taken care of. by the way, boeing doing a safety stand down starting tomorrow. it is a one-day pause, where workers will break off into work groups and sessions on quality and the quote from the boeing head of commercial