right now, critical negotiations in the middle east. tony blinken is there right now. the deal for hostages but that deal could be a nonstarter for israel. last-minute preparations for the face-off at the u.s. supreme court tomorrow. new reporting on how donald trump's lawyers are prepared to make the case that he should not be banned from state ballots. chaos on capitol hill, as house republicans suffered back-to-back embarrassing defeats within minutes. what happens next for embattled speaker johnson. rahel sol omon with john berman. this is cnn central. soon, in just hours, we'll hear from benjamin netanyahu, after his meeting with secretary

of state tony blink pen. blinken in israel for crucial talks on the war in gaza. hamas is offering a counterproposal for the potential release of hostages. blinken says they are looking intensively at the deal. israeli officials familiar with the negotiations tell cnn that there is, quote, no way that israel will agree to hamas' proposal. we have team coverage for you. nic robertson in tel aviv. s there will be a press conference in just hours. does that give you a sense of what we might hear? >> reporter: i think we hear the red lines that benjamin netanyahu won't cross. and the victory would be the killing of leadership of hamas. the idea that cease-fire and a

deal for the hostages isn't going to work. and the israeli government is not about to release the hamas prisoners who were captured on october 7th. that's going to be tough lan language. this may be the nuance of what hamas is on the table. three phase lasting 45 days. the first phase, the release of the women, children, elderly, injured hostages. the next phase would see the release of male hostages, civilians and military. the third phase would be the release of the bodies of the hostages that hamas still has. they're talking about in that first phase, not a complete seize cease-fire. they have to pull back out of populated areas. must stop the drone activity and must allow humanitarian aid into gaza. 60,000 housing units, 200,000

tents. big ask of freedom of movement of people around gaza. they are saying by the time they get to the second phase, they want to have nailed down that permanent cease-fire. this is where the stumbling blocks are going to be. this is where it's going to be in the diplomatic process. we know also secretary blinken, has been here not just meeting with netanyahu but meeting with the defense chief and the military commanders in the idf. and the intelligence chief inside those meetings, as well. >> let me bring in the conversation. what's the sense of how the white house is viewing this and assessing this proposal. officials at the statehouse and the white house, when it comes to the hostage. they are intensely reviewing. the white house has been careful so far, not to weigh in on the proposal.

we heard israeli officials say there's no way they would have heard the terms that ha mmas proposed. he said parts are a little over the top. the president did not elaborate what made him lead to that assessment. but secretary of state anthony blinken said getting a hostage deal is essential. that's a key focus of the meetings today, while he is in israel, over the key focus of his discussion what happened with benjamin netanyahu earlier today. and in a beameeting with isaac herzog, said the hostages remain at the top of the u.s. minds but more work needs to be done on this proposal. take a listen. we have a response from hamas to the proposal that was put on the table, the way forward. we're looking at it intensely.

as i know the government of israel, and there's a lot of work to be done. we are very much focused on doing that work. >> reporter: blinkens visit comes at a critical time. hostage negotiations are ongoing and as the u.s. is discussing the path forward for gaza, once this conflict ends. in his meeting with netanyahu, blinking stressed the need for a two-state solution. that's something that so far, netanyahu has rebuffed, even as u.s. officials have consistently pressed him on this. it comes at a high-stakes moment,as there's pressure on netanyahu and domestically here at home, to not get the hostages back and put an end to this war. >> we'll hear from both of the leaders in a few hours. thank you. with us now, cnn chief

security analyst, jim shciutto. all i heard was we're looking at it intensively. we have a news conference from the israeli prime minister shortly. who will you be listening for, when he speaks in hebrew to his people? >> the outlines of this deal will be elite for israel. a cease-fire or a truce, if you want to call it that, in months, rather than weeks. israelis, you might want to describe it as dragged kicking and screaming, have agreed to deals in days or weeks. this would extend it into months. that's a big step for israel to take. you can expect strong words, criticism from advertise really prime minister. the other piece, inherent in accepting a deal, before israel has accomplished even half of its goal.

its goal of destroying hamas. one of third of hamas fighters have been killed. it would be agreeing to that large deal with the large concessions before even getting halfway to the stated goal. of the military operations. and regardless of what the prime minister says, as they're discussing this, that would be quite an admission to make. listen, we're not there. we're not really even close. given how steadfast that promise was, really, in the early stages, of this military operation, that would be notable. >> it's not inviting but the implication is, hamas stays. that's very much part of this counterproposal there. what leverage does the u.s. secretary of state anthony blinken have when he is in discussions with israeli officials, as he is trying to nudge them along?

>> reporter: some. not as much as the secretary of state would like. israel has pulled back its military operations there. it seems in part, due to the enormous and shocking death toll in gaza. there's other factors in that. the idf is stretched. it's a citizens army. and there is consequences of all of the conscripts. there's reasons to pull back and to limit and place restrictions on the operations. it seems the u.s. has leverage. does it have enough leverage for what the u.s. secretary of state is exploring right now. that's some decoration to a palestinian state. the palestinian statehood at the end of negotiations, to put a line in the sand, that the u.s.

will support the two-state solution and find some way forward there that would be a big step, john. having covered this region for years, as well. i will say this. it's consistent with how the biden administration approached this war from the beginning. when biden went to the region, his intention was not to go to israel, go to amman and meet with arab leaders. he wanted to make this bipartisan -- you know what i'm saying. arab/israeli solution to the problem. he didn't get that. this would be an attempt to resurrect that, we're in this together approach. we'll see if we can get there. >> jim sciutto, as always. >> want to get back to breaking news we have been following this morning. the u.s. marine corps is searching right now for a missing u.s. military helicopter in california. we know five marines were onboard. let's get to natasha bertrand.

what is the latest here? >> they are searching for marines flying a superstoll can john helicopter, to the marine corps corps station miramar in san diego, when the aircraft was overdue. the 3rd aircraft wing is coordinating search and rescue efforts, with the san diego county sheriff's department and the civil air patrol. they received the first report at 2:20 a.m. local time. and the last from this aircraft was 11:30 p.m. on tuesday. they deployed three fire engines and blons to the area but encountered heavy snow and winter conditions. they went as far as they could in the search area before having to pull back. now, that they have encountered

daylight again, they're going to reengage the search effort from the fire department there. this is not the first time that one of the helicopters, a heavy lift helicopter around the world by marines, has been involved in an incident. the last one in 2018, when one of the helicopters crashed in california and killed all four marines that were onboard there. as of right now, they are engaging in this search mission. >> the weather might complicate the search efforts. thanks so much. where will donald trump be when his lawyers argue before the supreme court that he should not be banned from state ballots. the day after the debacle. a night in the house that few observers have ever seen. what it means for house speaker mike johnson? can he survive? and what ait means for aid for

ukraine. and prince william looks to fill the royal duties of the king and his wife amid their health concerns.

high stakes at the supreme court. tomorrow, the justices will hear oral arguments if donald trump violated the ban of insurrectionists to be kept off of the ballot. paula reed and joe are with me now. paula, first, let's talk donald trump. is he going to be there tomorrow? what's the team's plan?

>> new reporting as of now, the former president is not expected to attend tomorrow's oral argument. could he change his mind? just 24 hours and the logistical considerations make it difficult for a former president to decide on a whim to show up. as of now, he is not expected to be in attendance. this is part of a more traditional, more disciplined strategy that we're seeing the trump team employee, ahead of tomorrow's oral arguments. trump is not expected to be there. he will be represented by jonathan mitchell. he's the former solicitor general of texas. this will be his sixth argument before the justices. this is someone who spent a long time in academia and government. scholarly articles. quite a contrast to the lawyers we've seen in trump in other venues. they're spending yesterday and again today, time to do mock arguments, preparation, ahead of tomorrow's historic case. and that's what many people would do, before they go before

the justices. the trump approach is not always conventional. we're contrasting this approach to what we've seen over the past several weeks with the trump team. in the civil cases, in new york, where trump was often disruptive and then of course, he did show up, too, here in d.c., to the oral arguments at the district court on the question of immunity. they are engaging lawyers. and in some ways, an admission that roy they're doing over the past few months maybe hah hasn't reaped the benefits they hoped or expected. >> joe, who are the justices to watch or listen to? who are you watching? you will be in the room? >> i will be, john. we will have an opportunity to

hear all nine justices of the highest court in the land. how often do people listen in? but this is a consequential decision on who will be the president of the united states, that audiences will be listening. several people have mentioned, but i have to start with chief justice john roberts, who i know well. he is at the center of the bench. he has the arguments before the case was filed in colorado. he saw this issue coming up. even if he didn't predict it would get to the high court, he would have been ready for it. one phrase i've heard, is john roberts is someone that is in three-dimensional chess. where will a majority of a unanimous court go to try to answer this question of whether

donald trump should be precluded from ballots. the question of the 14th amendment at issue here, has several parts. and there's several ways to interpret that statute. people will start to hear a lot of parsing of the text. a lot of the parsing of the history of this provision that was enacted after the civil war and aimed at con feed rat leaders. for example, is this the thing that congress should have passed legislation for to actually invoke it against a former president. or is the president covered when it comes to language of an officer of the united states. it's counterintuty that the trump forces are arguing against that. if you look at constitutional terms, donald trump would not fall under it. we're going to listen for the chief.

i want to point to a justice that has a distinct history. the first african-american woman to sit on this court. she is the only member of this court to have actually sat on cases arising from the january 6th attack on the capitol. she was a district court judge in early 2021, before going to the d.c. circuit and coming to the supreme court in 2022. she saw the issues when a trial judge. >> imagine if the american people could watch alongside you. alas, no cameras in the supreme court. thank you both so much. >> one to watch. let's keep the conversation going, with cnn legal analyst jennifer rogers and normizen, good to see you both. norm, let me start with you. the reporting that trump will likely not be there, that's obviously a departure from his previous legal issues.

does do you agree with that? and how seriously his team is taking this? >> i agree that it's likely that the former president won't be there. he has shown up in court because it's to his advantage that it fans the flames of grievance with his followers with the odds stacked against him. and it's an insurance policy when he loses those cases. see? i told you it was a witch hunt all along. the criminal cases against him. and also, the financial fraud and e. jean carroll cases. here, he must believe the odds are on his side. indeed, it's an uphill battle at the supreme court. he seems to be taking a pass. >> do you believe that it's on

his side? >> i do. and it's interesting. it is hard to say that legally. if you look at all of the arguments, they are not persuasive in terms of keeping him on the ballot. but practically speaking, with the way that 50 states have been looking at this, the patchwork of procedures that have been happening, the court will keep him on the ballot and give universal guidance to states because they think it would be chaotic and looks like congress will act if they want states to do this in this way. >> do you think they will weigh in on the issue of whether he incited or engaged in insurrection? >> they will stay away from that issue. there was a five-day trial at the trial court in colorado. higher courts don't delve into these questions. it's hard to overturn a factual question like that. i think politically, they want to stay away from that. they will look for one of the pure legal issues, whether he's

an officer or self-executing provision. that's where they will try to take their time. >> do they weigh on that issue or side step it as jennifer points out? >> i agree with jennifer. as a strict matter of law and evidence, if you were looking at the 14th amendment, the colorado courts correctly concluded, donald trump engaged in insurrection and does not belong on the ballot. the supreme court sometimes makes political decisions. the worst of those was the dobbs decision, wrongly overturning decades of constitutional protection for women's rights to choose. if the supreme court looks for an off-ramp here, there's two. one is, was donald trump an officer of the united states as the 14th amendment requires.

it's silly to say he's not a constitutional officer. the more likely off-ramp is to say, hey, this is a political question for congress. we don't get into political questions. that's security doctrine. and there's words in the 14th amendment that you can read. the secuupreme court will need stretch a little bit to say, hey, this is for congress. i agree with jennifer. those are the two-most likely off-ramps. officer of the united states political question under the text of the 14th amendment. >> let me take it a step further. do you think we see a unanimous r rule? or is there so much here that if it goes the former president's way, there will likely be dis dissent? there will be a push/bullpull w

the justices? >> i don't know if he will get it. it depends on what the majority of the court focuses on. which off-ramp they're going to take. he's going to try hard. i'm not sure he will get there. there's one or two justices that can't stomach it that say he should be off the ballot. >> jennifer rogers, see you. norm izeisen, as well. cnn will have the special battle at the supreme court. join jake tapper and kaitlan collins. the republican party overhaul. the rnc chair on her way out. what is donald trump up to here? after months of bickering and desperate pleas from soldiers on the front lines, u.s. aid to ukraine could be decided by the u.s. senate today.

a major shakeup on the horizon for the republican national committee. ron mcdaniel is stepping down after the south carolina primary. this comes after donald trump called out the rnc for having its worst fund-raising year in a decade. we go to washington with the latest. why and why now? >> there's a couple reasons, john. i want to point out that ron mcdaniel was facing pressures on a lot of fronts, not just from donald trump. there's a lot of people conservatives especially, who have been unhappy with her

leadership at the rnc. but trump, no doubt, was the driving factor behind this. there's a couple reasons for that. donald trump harbors a lot of resentment towards the rnc. but mcdaniel, for their handling of the 2020 election. trump felt they should have had more attorneys in place to push back on the election results. that's what i hear time and time again in conversations with trump advisers. a lot of this came to a head last week when they saw that the rnc had reported one of the worst fund-raising years in over a decade. they brought in $8 million on-hand at the end of last year. something that was alarming to donald trump's team. that's when they started to make plans of wanting to send a firm message to the rnc. and you saw donald trump railing

against the rnc, criticizing ronna mcdaniel and he met with her at mar-a-lago for a meeting that lasted over two hours. it wcordial. since then, she has gone to donald trump and offered resignation. it's striking this is coming. even though donald trump doesn't have the personal ability to oust the chair, that comes to the members. his power and the pressure over the party to have new leadership is clearly the driving force here. >> who are the options to replace ronna mcdaniel with? >> there's a couple names that i've been hearing in my conversations with trump's team that they've been floating for a short while now. one is the chairman of the north carolina party, michael watley. he's considered the lead co contender in this race for who donald trump wants to take over.

they are looking at drew mckissic and state senators. just to discuss why they really like watley, the big reason that we're told is because he has been a -- chief champion of donald trump's election fraud claims from 2020. and donald trump really wants someone who will lead the charge on that. if this were to happen again, if he becomes a nominee and something happens in november in that election, he wants someone that will be loyal to him, especially on that front. after donald trump has had concerns about how ronna mcdaniel and the rnc handled this. >> i spoke to watley after january 6th, 2021 and he refused to hold donald trump responsible for what happened on that day. thank you very much. no mayorkas impeachment. no aid for israel. and possibly no border deal. latest on the legislation by the

gop. and prince william back in the public eye. performing his duties for the first time since his wife's surgery.

welcome back. today senate republicans are expected to sink a major bipartisan border and foreign aid package they originally demanded and came out against. this chaos on capitol hill coming just hours after two

embarrassing back-to-back defeats for republicans on the house floor. the house first failing to impeach alejandro mayorkas and rejecting $17 billion in aid to israel. back to manu raju. chuck schumer apparently looks to be going on to plan "b" now. what can you share with us? >> plan "b" used to be plan "a" but they went forward with the emergency aid package. at the border, in uh change newt the board. republicans have demanded that integration must be part of this. a bipartisan deal after 4 1/2 months caught between a tyreo of senators, to move forward, after senate republicans and house republicans said they will not accept that plan within a matter of hours of its release. and now, chuck schumer, after today, when republicans in the

senate are expected to block that larger package and dropped that border provisions and moved ahead with the emergency foreign aid. and schumer to advance it out of the senate. the republicans in particular, concerns of the divisions within their party, making it hard and almost unable to govern. we saw on the house floor yesterday, a class of an aid bill and the ability to impeach alejandro mayorkas. members concerned about the leadership plan to deal with the border that can become law. we need round two here. there's nothing on the border. >> there should be leadership coming out. immediately said it was dead on arrival. it was hours without this.

>> i wish they were playing and had a plan. >> how do you think the voters will respond to the no votes? >> they will hear from the constituents. they are hearing from them already. they should listen to them. >> the last comment coming from marjorie taylor greene, the congresswoman from georgia. critical of the three that voted against impeaching alejandro mayorkas. they miscalculated the votes. thinking there would be enough democratic absences to get it over the finish line. they could impeach mayorkas. whether the speaker of the house can make it back in time, recovering from cancer treatment, and the outcome of the new york special election next week, to determine whether mayorkas to be impeached. if not, they could fail on that effort, as well.

>> manu, thanks so much. with us now is former republican congressman from michigan, fred upton. thank you. axios described what happened last night as ten minutes of humiliation that will live in house lore. what do you think of that description? >> it's accurate. i was once a deputy whip, way back in the '90s. we didn't lose votes. i don't remember a loeadership losing the vote with a big issue like this. the whole country is watching. probably the closest when they did prescription drugs as part of medicare. that vote was a couple hours long. dick cheney and president bush, they were able to coerce folks to say this is a good thing and we need to do it.

the system failed the republican leadership. and manu is right. you have a special election in new york. a district that biden won. remember, this was the santos district. that special election occurred tuesday. this is vice chair. his vote will offset that. steve scalise undergoing cancer treatment. proceeding and losing on that. and aid to israel, a little different procedure, suspension of the rules. it had to pass, not by majority, but a two-thirds vote. an they should have known it was not anywhere close to having two-thirds vote. 290 in the full house.

>> what does this tell you about mike johnson's ability to lead? >> there's a couple critical issues they have to do. you have to support our allies. israel. that's taiwan. certainly ukraine. i was in the ukraine caucus. border security, everyone knows this is the top issue. i'm a reagan republican, right? we need to take steps in the right direction to close that board. that's what this bill did. that's what the senate bill did. that's what hr-2 did. there's some room for a bill to move forward, that shows some progress on shutting down the border. border security is very important. it's in the mind of republicans, as well as democrats.

and there is a pathway here. you allow regular orders, amendments to this bill. you can get something that's done and combine it with aid of our allies at the end of the day. >> do you think that mike johnson will allow a house vote on aid to ukraine? >> he might not want to allow it. there's a couple procedures that would force him. using the rules of the house. a vet on a question for a rule. there's a couple of ways to go around the speaker. it's tough. the votes are there. not only for immigration reform, but aid to our allies. let's hope, for me, hope that something can happen. i think that it can.

i wouldn't close the betting doors down in vegas. >> thank you for being with us this morning. rahel. >> all right, john. a 23-year-old palestinian american stabbed after leaving a rally in austin, texas. how he is doing today. and why police believe the attack was motivated by bias.

welcome back. authorities in texas are investigating the stabbing of a palestinian american as a potential hate crime. 23-year-old zakaria was stabbed after leaving a pro-palestinian

rally this weekend. first, what do we know about how he's doing? also, tell us the latest about this investigation. >> reporter: police are calling this a bias-motivated incident. they said it's going to be sent to the hate crimes review commission. then, to the travis county district attorney. only the district attorney will make the decision if hate crime charges will be warranted. that office told cnn it awaits the criminal investigation to be sent to them. on sunday evening, 36-year-old burt james baker was arrested and charged with second-degree aggravated assault with a deadly

weapon in the stabbing of 23-year-old. according to council on american islamic relations, he and three friends were leaving a cease-fire rally in austin when a man on a bicycle pulled a flag that bears the palestinian and free palestine off the vehicle. the man shouted the "n" word and pulled one man out of the car when the others tried to fight the suspect off. that's when he was stabbed. his father spoke yesterday about his son's injury, saying he was in agony. also said, his son had a message for those who were in charge in this country. he said, mr. president, mr. joe biden, i blame you. i blame you for what happened to me. if you would have called for a cease-fire, three months ago, this would never have happened.

>> cnn reached out for baker. he had no comment. he is now out of the hospital. he was released yesterday evening. he's at home recovering with his family in dallas. >> good to know he is recovering. awful story. diane gallagher, live for us. a trial date has been set in the involuntary manslaughter case against alec baldwin. he will be in court starting august 6th. he's pleaded not guilty to the charge connected to the death of cinematographer helena hutchins, who was killed on the set of "rust" in 2021. baldwin denied firing that round. u.k. prime minister will speak with king charles today by phone. this will be the first exchange since the king's cancer diagnosis. meanwhile, prince william returned to royal duties for the first time since his wife's surgery. he hosted a ceremony at windsor

castle. the republican party is in a state of utter dysfunction. the push to impeach the secretary botched efforts to pass a stand-alone aid package for israel failed. now, the senate is forced to kill the bipartisan border deal. we'll discuss when we come back.