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feels appropriate, right? >> i'm michael smerconish in philadelphia last night in detroit, president biden was greeted by a crowd chanting, don't you quit. he gave a fiery speech about staying in the race and finishing the job probably noticed his boss lot of speculation laid me. what's joe biden going to do is he going to stay in the race? i'm going to drop out where my answer. i am running and we're going aware. >> but hang on the polling is showing that his candidacy is

in danger of turning blue states purple per today's new york times quote as president biden insists, he'll stay in the presidential race democrats are growing increasingly political map, turning light blue states into contested battlegrounds down-ballot democrats, local elected officials, and party strategists say minnesota, new hampshire, new mexico, virginia all of which mr. biden won comfortably in 2020 could be in play in november after his miserable debate performance last month and this is just one of several recent developments, potentially harmful to his candidacy. >> a major democratic donors have told the largest pro-biden super pac that roughly 90 million in pledged donations is now on hold. if president biden remains a top of the ticket at least 19 house members have called on him to drop out, as well as 24 former lawmakers as house democratic leader, hakeem jeffries with holds his endorsement as the pressure

mounts, the president is scheduled to meet today virtually with multiple groups of congressional democrats and on at least three occasions since the debate, the white house has had to revise accounts of the president's medical care and the president has refused to undergo additional testing. the new york times was first to report that the biden campaign is now polling to see how kamala harris fares against donald trump. it's believed to be the first time since the debate that the biden team has sought to test her viability. polls show that she has only a 29% favorability and his is only at 34% favorability. we don't know what the latest harris numbers will show but we do have lots of data on biden standing none of it encouraging for an incumbent it's misleading to characterize the race as a dead heat. even if polls show it within the margin of error, or is npr, pbs marist found biden actually leading by 25048 remember, we don't elect by a national vote if we did, hillary clinton would be finishing her second term,

right now. we rely on the electoral college, hence, it's all about the six battleground states, arizona, pennsylvania, nevada, georgia, wisconsin, michigan, and according to realclearpolitics, right now, trump leads in each here's another way to think about it. if the national polling is deadlocked, it's actually indicative of a potential trump blowout in 2016, hillary clinton won the popular vote by 2.1% and lost the electoral college 3-0, six to 32 in 2020 biden won the popular vote by 4.5%, won the electoral college, three au, six to 232 it means that biden probably needs to be ahead in the national vote by at least 4%. in order to win in the electoral college at this point in 2020, biden was ahead of trump by between nine and 11 points but as i said, then went on to win by 4.5 moreover, most democrats democrats, say they

want him to drop out 67% of americans say he should end his candidacy, including 56% of democrats yesterday on radio, i spoke with david wasserman, the senior editor, and elections analyst with the cook political report with amy walter. this week, it was the cook political report that moved six states away from joe biden and toward donald trump, arizona, georgia, and nevada have gone from toss up to lean republican. minnesota, new hampshire, and nebraska is second congressional district, have gone from likely democratic to lean democratic david wasserman told me where so many voters have presorted themselves into like-minded communities. the resulting echo chambers preclude big shifts that we might have seen in elections past from a candidate meltdown or say a felony conviction as a result, we don't see big shifts in the race he also said

that biden has lost so many black latino, and young voters that if the election were held next week, his path would be very slim like david wasserman, famed democratic political guru doug sosnik, has just opined that president biden's electoral path has all but vanished quote, trump is now the clear front runner to be the next president of the united states. and david axelrod said this week that the odds of a trump landslide are greater than a biden narrow victory something else to consider, the president speaks as if the race is just beginning its actually closer to the end. hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent. one of two agreed upon debates is over and not even a trump felony conviction has moved his needle downward the first votes will be cast in the states of south dakota and minnesota on september 20. that's just 69 days from now. presidential elections can no longer be thought of as revolving around election day election day is

instead the final opportunity to vote so although political races have volatility, if the biden team is being truthful in taking the latest data to the president. there'll be telling him, sir, in all likelihood, there's no path to victory i want to know what you think go to my website. it's smerconish.com and answer today's poll question, will polling data showing his narrow path to victory convinced president biden that he must step aside, joining me now is bob costas 29 time emmy-winner back on february 24, after president biden chose not to do a pre-super bowl interview, bobb appeared on this program and set a lot of people's hair on fire by saying this this is emperor's new clothes stuff if people aren't familiar with the fairy tale, the emperor was naked. >> no one wanted to say it. a little child was able to say it this is common sense stuff. of course, there are people who say, and this is the card they've been playing for a long time. yes. we kind of know it's true, but don't say that

that will only help donald trump well how feckless are the democrats if they realize that this guy could possibly lose to trump, then get somebody else out there. you don't go into the super bowl with a quarterback who has a dead arm or the seventh game of the world series that people are more comfortable with me talking in sports terms. you don't do it. this is just so obvious bob costas, were you seeing something then that others were not seeing or is it that you were willing to say it when others were not? yeah i think it's the latter and it only became more overwhelmingly obvious with the debate performance. and for those who say the definition of cognitive dissonance here is oh, we're not going to toss him overboard because of one bad night. that one atrocious night was simply writ large. what could be scene for years and years that he is in serious decline. nobody should be president when they're 85 or 86, including the ghost of abraham lincoln

but this guy is clearly in decline at this point. and part of the job leaving aside whether he can do it for the next four years is winning the job. and as you just laid out that seems to be nearly impossible at this point when they say, and many democrats are still saying this they lay out all the reasons why donald trump is loathsome and a threat to democracy, an existential threat. and then they say, that's why we have to get et behind joe biden. know that's exactly why joe biden must be ushered out as i said at that time, it was so obvious said to abby philip last year on cnn, biden had a chance to be seen by history as a statesman and a patriot. he spared the nation a second trump term. he could have gone out how an a gracious fashion. now, we can no longer indulge his delusions. it's a shame. it's a kind of a shakespearean tragedy, perhaps with him as king lear and his wife as lady macbeth. but that's all secondary now,

precedent doesn't matter. au he was the, he is the incumbent he won all the votes in the primary because he had no opposition. these are desperate times and they call for measures that are appropriate to the circumstances two weeks before the debate was the hollywood fundraiser, the washington post sort of went inside. i want to put something on the screen here's what they found about what took place at the fundraiser. some attendees said, it was even worse at the smaller reception's before biden took the stage, greeting hundreds of supporters for grip and grin photos, the president stumbled over small talk and seemed frail according to six attendees for the high-level donors who are meeting the 81-year-old the biden for the first time, several said they found his decline shocking. it makes me wonder if there hadn't been the debate performance, bob, if the debate had taken place in september as was initially intended with the commission on presidential debates. i don't know that we'd be even having this conversation because all the people at that fundraiser, clooney floated, weren't

speaking until the debate yeah. and to me and this is for the stick to sports crowd this is been so overwhelmingly obvious for so long. you don't need a degree and public policy from harvard to see it and to say it if you're willing to say it any more than you need a degree from mit to say to plus two is four. and it makes you wonder whether we've been gaslit by the democrats, the republicans, major and gaslighting everybody with trump as their standard bearer. but this had to have been obvious to people surrounding the president and people who observed the president wouldn't it have been an act of patriotism if that's not too over boeing a word in this case, to lay that out before the american public. you know, look trump is a very vulnerable candidate against hillary clinton, who clearly was qualified but had some baggage and may have run a bad campaign she was hamstrung a bit about going after the personal flaws to be kind of

donald trump for reasons we need not list here and here we have joe biden who cannot say, as any other account that he could say, let's roll the tape on all of trump's unhinged rallies where he seems to be a blistering buffoon because then all the republicans do is turn it around on all the gaps and missteps times when biden seems to be wandering around in a fog in sports, if you're opponent has an obvious vulnerability, you devise a strategy to exploit that vulnerability. hey, this guy's white up and for a left hook but wait a minute, the guy can't you're our guy can't throw a left hook. that's where we are give me the 32nd response to those who are watching and saying didn't you see him last night in detroit? fiery and on top of his game, you would say what? >> it doesn't change. the basic calculus, it doesn't change it. again it's a shame. biden's a decent man. we

don't want to see it play out this way. we want to be respectful if we can but this has the feeling of somebody handing a participation trophy to a kid at a soccer match just because he didn't fall down, the bar is set so low that people applaud when he doesn't remind us yet again of how at this point he is not qualified to campaign and clearly is not qualified to finish four more years as president thank you. bob costas, appreciate your being here as always now the question, what would it take for the president to step down joining me is bradley tusk. he's a venture capitalist, founder of tusk strategies. his resume includes serving as the deputy governor of illinois, as well as campaign manager for michael bloomberg. he was also communications director for senator chuck schumer. he wrote recently for substack under the headline, how biden thinks you said that all politicians are insecure and then put on the screen a part of what bradley wrote, quote, any successful argument means convincing him

that there is more upside for him and dropping out. not that he should do what? right. because it's right. you have a three-pronged approach. the first deals with family considerations. explain what will come to biden was convicted of a federal crime, and i think most people would say and i would certainly agree that had joe biden not been president, he wouldn't ever been prosecuted for that. joe biden as president, has the ability to pardon his son. but if he's the candidate, its way to controversial and given the position he's already in, it would just be completely untenable if he's not the candidate and he's just finishing up his term it's completely doable and so a son of hayes, who has struggled his entire life all of a sudden now facing as many as 18 months in prison, you can prevent that from happening. you can save him, you can save your family from all of this pain. and once you're not a candidate, it's easy to do and the second scenario that you present or argument is one of hay even if

you win, here's what it looks like. explain i mean, think about what the next four years would be like. >> there would be calls every single day to invoke the 25th amendment and replace him. he would be almost on a both literal several death watch, pretty much constantly should the republicans take the house or senate in both of those are highly possible they will be investigating him constantly now that the media has basically taken the position that biden is not equipped and fit to be president, but they will keep going back to that over and over again. so yeah, he might get to be the president. but if it is so miserable and if all he's doing his aren't being under siege constantly. basically, if he doesn't like the way it feels right now, that's the best is going again bradley. his legacy up until now would have been a legacy of someone who defeated donald trump, pleasing half the country immensely and a series of accomplishments while in office. what's the legacy look like now going forward?

>> yeah. i mean, look, unfortunately, even though he has accomplished a lot over the course of his career, if he is seen as the guy who refuse to leave when it was clear that he needed to when it was clear that the american people wanted him to, and he brought back donald trump as a result, especially when, as bob said, trump is beatable by other potential democratic candidates, that becomes his legacy, which is the guy who has too selfish to step aside and leave. and so why diminish 50 plus years of a great career of public service for a campaign that's incredibly hard to succeed at this point. >> and he might say, but if i step aside and if it's the vice president who then emerges, maybe because of my endorsement and she loses. >> i'm going to get blamed for the loss. it's not as bad. yes. sure. at this point, because it's already mid july, it's different than if he had a year ago said, hey, i said i was gonna be a transitional president. i was i got us through covid, passed a lot of

great stuff, took out. trump was trying to pass the torch. yes. then he would have no responsibility to offer the outcome either but way but still at this point, the person who loses the race is the person who loses the race if he's the nominee, that very well might be him. if it's kamala harris or somebody else. sure. that he could still be blamed, but it's very different. bradley tusk. thanks for the analysis. appreciated your substack peace. >> yeah. grabbed me, michael. appreciate it. what are your thoughts? hit me up on social media. many of you are. i'm sure i'll read some allowed during the course of the program. i don't see them in advance. stop it. you're bias is showing the man has the kind of perseverance we need in a leader, especially in the face of the decades-long slide into christo fascism. the one thing you are relentless, negative bias is doing is helping him demonstrate that quality au. so i'm actually helping him. i'm not here to help him and i'm not here to hurt him. i'm here to call balls and strikes. i just have to say to you, as i've said to others, who

interpret my analysis as being intended to help donald trump, that you need to consider whether you're the one helping donald trump? and by the way, i'm not going to help or hurt donald trump by keeping your head in the sand and avoiding this conversation because perhaps you will wake up on november 6 and say, oh my god, how did it happen? and maybe we should have done something about it when we still have the opportunity. think about that. i want to know what all of you think go to my website at smerconish.com, please answer. today's polling question. will polling data showing his narrow path to victory convinced president biden that he needs to step aside. i'm asking that question because in that press conference on thursday night when he was asked what he step aside, he said, if they come to me and they say, you can't when you have no path in that circumstance, he'd consider it so okay. i showed you the data at the outset of the program. is that going to convince him? that's what i'm asking the poll question still to come monday, the start of the

republican national convention in milwaukee. we still don't know trump's vp what can we expect to hear of the gop platform for america? i want to tell you why i believe this is no longer reagan's grand old party. don't forget to sign up for the free daily newsletter at smerconish.com when you're voting scott status of the dallas morning news in chicago tribune sketched this for us really happened to give land to on monday bombing from us ally 21st denied on with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, my skin was no longer mine. my active psoriatic arthritis join symptoms held me back don't let symptoms to find you emerge as you with trump via most people saw 90% clear skin at for months. >> and the majority stayed clearer at five years why is proven to significantly reduce joint pain, stiffness, and swelling? it's just six doses a year after two starter doses

serious allergic reactions may occur, can fire, may increase your risk infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms for if you had a vaccine, are planning to emerge as you emerge trim fired dr. about trump via thinking i'm thinking about her honeymoon. >> but what africa so far, hot air balloon rice win with elephants waiting 34 to safari, great question. >> like everything takes a little planning for what the mind towards a down payment on a ranch in montana with horses. let's take a look at those scenarios. >> jpmorgan wealth management has advisors and chase branches and tools like wealth plan to help keep you on track. crack when you're planning for it, all, the answer is jpmorgan wealth management you may like

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irritation what are you waiting for? >> get your first wax free? >> closed captioning? he's brought to you by christian faith publishing, right? for a higher purpose published with us christian faith publishing is an author friendly publisher who understands it. your labor is more than just a book color scan for your free riders guide, 800, 4, 5, 518 to seven it's a party to which ronald reagan might not have been invited monday, republicans will gather in milwaukee for the national convention that will nominate donald trump as their candidate. of course, a mainstay of conventions for nearly 200 years has been the drafting an acceptance of the party platform one part plan, one part wishlist for a party and their standard bearer in a recent national affairs piece, why party platforms matter? tevye troy, a senior fellow at the bipartisan policy center, rights, the platform serve an important purpose in an age of soundbites and selective reporting, they give people a clear view of where the party stand on specific issues and how they prioritize our nation's challenges. so

what's in those plans where here's some quick bullet points from a party platform neither hispanics nor any other group should be barred from education or employment opportunities because english is not their first language. there's a need to invest in mass transit for cities america should prioritize working in close concert with our nato partners to ensure a strong, confident alliance. one more federal budget deficits and rising us debt should be curtailed it sounds centrist. forward looking might even say progressive with a touch of fiscal conservatism that is not today's democratic platform. that's the gop platform from 19 at the, at convention that nominated ronald reagan compare that to this year's gop platform on immigration. this one calls for construction of a wall and millions to be deported to combat the immigration invasion on abortion. it would give states the right to pass laws,

including restricting abortion access. and what it comes to transportation. this party platform is eager to cancel the electric vehicle mandate this year, the platform has been downplayed. keeping trump as the focal point. for instance, per the new york times and nebraska business woman named christine veil, was notified by local republican officials that she'd been selected to be one of the state's representatives on the platform committee she protested that there must be some mistake while deeply enamored of mr. trump, ms veil was neither a gop activists nor a policy nerd i'm more of a trump au kin that a true republican she recalled saying according to miss vale to reply was, well, that's exactly what we want meanwhile, gop critics are speculating that the real gop platform is a different written policy statements spearheaded by the heritage foundation the so-called mandate for leadership. the conservative promise or project 2025. it's a 900 page collection of policy proposals that advocate the increase of presidential power the

privatization of the bureaucracy, for instance, and the abolishing of the department of education with more attention being paid to it in recent weeks, president trump has repeatedly distanced himself from the project, saying some of the things they're saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal but a new review from cnn shows that at least 100 140 of the people listed as authors, editors, and contributors to the mandate for leadership. worked in the trump administration. rolling stone has also found that at least seven members of the rnc who helped develop the 2024 gop platform have also got ties to project 2025. so even but if trump had nothing to do with project 2025, the likelihood is administration will be populated with those who wrote it. joining me now is republican florida congressman byron donalds, a trump campaign surrogate congressman. good to see you. to what extent were you vetted to be donald trump's running mate? >> well, listen, it's a great opening question, but i'm not

going to get into that. donald trump's been going over all the people on that list. he's going to make a decision very shortly. i'm excited for what he's going to do. and then we're going to support the vice presidential nominee along with president trump. and we're going to go win back the white house this november to some extent, did you fill out paperwork i'm not going to get into it. i've been very clear that that entire process i'm not going to answer because i want to respect the privacy that the trump campaign is trying to keep around the selection for vice presidential nominee. the thing that's much more important is obviously donald trump's massive leading in the polls. and the fact that his policy positions are focused on the american people. first, second, or third, the palace intrigue about vice presidential nominees. that's all going to be resolved in a couple of days. he's alright, let's get into some other palace intrigue. is the trump campaign hoping that joe biden, president biden holds on as his party's standard bearer, got

beat up in the debate, but you don't really want him out because perhaps vice president kamala harris or any other replacement would be strong anger against donald trump than biden is running it all that polling data that i showed at the outset of the program to be frank with you, it doesn't matter if it's joe biden, kamala harris, or anybody else because the radical democrat agenda remains the same, it's their agenda that unleased a massive inflation. >> it's their agenda it's massively opened up our borders, giving the drug cartels operational control over the southern border. it's the democrat agenda that is joe biden's agenda. kamala harris is agenda that has led to a weak and feckless foreign policy. so our view is very clear. it doesn't matter who they actually nominate there agenda remains the same. it's been destructive of the men, men, and women of our country. and that donald trump has the policy prescriptions to make america great again radical agenda. those are words that are being used to describe. you

heard the setup for your introduction project 2025. my question for congressman byron donalds is this, which is a better indication of what's to come if there is another trump administration, the gop platform or project 2025. and why? >> well, first i will tell you it's definitely been the rnc gop platform and then it's also the policies that donald trump talks about on the campaign trail. look, you got to understand and washington, there are think tanks everywhere. there are staffers who move in and out of administration's off capitol hill into these think tanks everybody has ideas and on capitol hill, but that doesn't mean that that's what donald trump is focused on. he is focused on getting our economy roaring again, getting inflation under control actually expanding our energy infrastructure, having us be energy dominant here in the united states. and of course, having a much more peaceful world having these conflicts around the globe come to an end, that's his focus. anybody

can have their ideas, but we all know that donald trump, he makes up his own mind. he'll listen to a lot of ideas, but at the end of the day, what he's going to do is going to be focused on what's best for the american people well i mean, i totally get that in the abstract, but you heard the data 0.140 people who played a role in the publication of project 2025 coming out of potentially going back into the trump administration. it's hard to believe that this won't show up in policy if in fact he's elected again but let me push back and let me explain it differently. i have staff members that worked for me on capitol hill and in my district here in southwest florida, they have ideas that doesn't mean i always agree with them at the end of the day. it is my job to make a decision now what policies were going to pursue out of my congressional office. same thing for president trump. he has people who may come and work in the administration, but that doesn't mean all of their ideas are going to get an

opportunity to be acted on, to be moved and signed into law. that's not how this works. and so you might have people who might come man but donald trump is focused on the american people, which is why i said earlier, the gop platform i'm telling you right now, that's where you need to look towards in terms of what donald trump agenda looks like as the 47th president. and if people don't want to go and read through that platform, just go to any trump rally across america, listen to the president talk on these issues. he's very clear about what his focus is congressman donalds, thank you for being here. >> appreciate it thank you what are you saying. >> via social media from the world of twitter, now known as x, michael, way, have you, i guess, why have you never spent five minutes on your program suggesting that trump should step aside because he is a profound liar, end convicted criminal. why you're rabid obsession will spell check here, garth, a with trump dropping out. jeez, the issue

you might not like this. garth rose. okay. i can't control the news cycle. i'm sorry to share with you the president biden had a disastrous debate that has caused within democratic ranks. and i'm not a democrat conversation consideration of him no longer being the party standard bearer. and i'm to ignore that trump. i've spoken of every one of his trials and tribulations painstaking the dea dn0, a guy named elie honig yeah, of course you do because he's a household name because of how many times i've hosted him. and so to have so many others. and what has been the sole focus of all of my repartee with elie donald trump's legal troubles so please don't give me the you don't talk about trump and his trials this is the issue of the day. okay. and next week i'm sure we'll be talking about the republican national convention. and the fate of president joe biden i want to remind everybody, go to my website at smerconish.com. answer today's poll question. will polling data? showing his

narrow path to victory convince president biden that he must step aside up ahead. are you trying to decipher what's going to happen in the presidential race. are you overwhelmed by polls? may be underwhelmed? what if i told you that it might be more accurate to see where the betting money is going. i'll explain that in just a moment. plus more of your social media comments. i'm i'm on all the social media platforms you know, you want to find me, take your best shot say something nice. nobody ever seems to do that, but you can find me easily and i'd love to hear from you. so, you know, tiktok facebook, twitter, my website. have your say i love milwaukee. cnn is live from milwaukee as republicans unite

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[ put a little love in your heart by david ruffin begins to play ] my bad, my bad. good race. - you too. you were tough out there. thank you. i'm getting you next time though. oh i got you, i got you. down goes jewett. jewett and amos are down. what a lovely sign of sportsmanship. you okay? yeah. ♪ ♪ and see how much you can save the u.s. i won't prevent history who paid you house of the dragon streaming exclusively on max more social media reaction so far to this

week's program, william, we all want to see the smerconish strategy to replace joe. and how does it work? tell us au okay, here you go. put that camera back on me the brits got an entire election done within the span of six weeks. democrats have five weeks on the clock. and if joe biden, president biden were to say that he's standing down i'm in favor of there being a competitive process among the usual suspects. so long as they are interested in seeking the nomination meaning you put vice president kamala harris into the mix and you have governor gavin newsom and governor josh shapiro. i don't want to leave anybody off the list. senator amy klobuchar, governor gretchen whitman, the democrats have a strong bench and let them duke it out for the next two weeks. can for the next five weeks, can you imagine the we'd be enthralled the level of interest it would be super bowl like in the process. and whomever emerges from that, a series of townhalls appealing to delegates doing forums on

cnn and everywhere else. in the cable world. but whomever would emerge from that process would be so fortified, they, he or she would have the wind at their back, unlike, unlike a canonization of the vice president, if that's what it comes to, a competitive process, let them fight and see whoever emerges from it, and let the democratic delegates then make that determination. i think it would completely recast this race. i also believe that whomever would come out of that process would be in the lead in all the polling data that i shared with you over former president trump. and then every one of you who has written some negative missive to me about how you're trying to help trump you have to eat crow because all of a sudden by the end of the summer, donald trump would be in second position to whomever this fresh face might be. thank you for giving me the opportunity to say that i went over my time, didn't i? okay. sorry. catherine up ahead. the election the election always been compared to a horse race.

but what if i told you the most accurate source of what's going to happen isn't the polls and it's not the pundits know, it's the betting markets where people are allowed to bet on the elections. expert is about to make that case don't forget vote on today's poll question at smerconish.com. we'll polling data showing his narrow path to victory, convinced president biden that he must step aside. and while you're there, sign up for my free and daily newsletter, check this out. steve breen drew that for us this week. that is hysterical. note the calendar date it's hard to watch yourself. >> be pulled out of the building by a tornado stay tuned to get an all new bellin howell bionic spotlight for 50% off outdoor security light

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consumers. betfair is more traditional betting market for consumers in europe australia, customers using predicted are limited to $850 per person for each market, while betfair and poly market currently have customers betting a combined total of more than $200 million in the general election, right now, predict it shows vice president kamala harris with a 39% chance of becoming the democratic nominee. aumany compared to president biden's 50% likelihood in the general election against former president trump, betfair says that biden has a 26% chance of beating trump while harris has about a 39% chance the other two markets predict former president trump has about a 60% adds of beating either candidate here to break down the numbers is professor harry crane who teaches statistics at rutgers university, earned a phd in statistics from the university of chicago. he's also a co-founder of researchers one that's a decentralized research platform. doctor crane, you

think that the betting markets are more reliable, more accurate in terms of their predictive value than the polls. how come well, this is something that i've been studying. >> i've been studying these markets since around the 2016 election. every midterm and presidential cycles since then. and that's just what the data shows, is that if you wanted a single best predictor one source of information to know what's going on in the elections it's the prediction markets. and if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense because any given piece of information that you might have, such as a poll or an aggregator, or news or pundits opinion, all of that's being combined by the participants in these markets, we have a finance central incentive to get it right and to make money off of this what's the takeaway from the nomination status? >> obviously on the democratic side of the aisle well, what's interesting, i mean, these markets are going up and down as the news changes over the

past couple of weeks as of right now, i mean, biden gained a little bit in the past couple of days since his nato speech. >> he's up slightly over 50% now. so he's a slight favorite, but it's essentially a coin toss between it's essentially a coin toss between biden or, or any other candidate and relative to who wins in november, regardless of who the candidate might be, republican or democrat, what are you seeing? well, right now, trump has about a 60 to 62% chance of winning in these markets. if you then consider what specific nominee he does seem to fare better against biden and harris than any other unnamed nominee. but i think the thing that i take away from that, even with it's all the chaos. and argument and debate on the democratic side. if you're on the republican side, trump's still with a 60% chance. yes, he is the favorite but i think if you're on the republican side, you'd want that number to be a lot higher.

so they shouldn't just spike the ball just yet. >> is this a fair way to characterize the data that other meanings. someone other than biden and harris is least likely to win the democratic nomination, but would be more likely to beat donald trump if they were to secure the nomination. >> yeah, that's that's pretty much what the markets are saying right now if you, if you consider any other candidate getting the nomination, depending which market you look at, their chance of winning would be anywhere from 50 to 70% as of right now one other question if i may, a lot of, a lot of the money that we're talking about because apart from predicted, which is unique, we're talking really about foreign investment at somebody said on my radio program on sirius xm why would we rely on a foreign perspective even if it is a betting market, you would say what to that? well, first one

thing i would say is that the regulations in the u.s. needs to change so that we get more markets in the u.s. it's, it is crazy that we're limited to $800 and we're relying on the information from overseas but the answer to that is that there are professional betters. the biggest betters, the best, the smartest, biggest syndicates world who make millions, tens of millions of dollars doing that. so there are incentivized, they have access to all the same information that we do, all the data, the polling data, the news, and so it's really the markets at work and just because they're located overseas doesn't mean that they're not getting access to the same information in the same expertise that might come from the american side. >> yeah, or it's tom friedman would say the world is flat. dr. crane, that's fascinating. thank you for your analysis thanks a lot. >> michael i don't want that last point to be lost. okay. what was the point? the point is that the other categories, someone other than biden, other than harris, less likely to get the nomination. but if that

mystery figure were to get the nomination, they have a greater likelihood of winning the presidency greater than biden and greater than harris. think about that. while you're crafting your next negative tweet toward me, coming up. the final results of today's poll question. it's smerconish.com we'll polling data showing his narrow path to victory convinced president biden that he must step aside subscribe to the newsletter when you're there come well, you'll see cartoons from legends. how about this from rob rogers back pain, when you've got it, you know, it introducing the eggs back from copperfield, our groundbreaking technology designed for compression support of your lower back in court, like you've never experienced before? >> for engineered with our most innovative patent pending advanced x compression system,

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hosting shark week. shark week hosted by me, john cena. it's been night at 8:00 on this it's stream on max there's the results so far smerconish smerconish.com, we'll polling data showing his narrow path to victory convinced president biden. he's got to step aside 31,000 and change and 82% or saying no, not going to change his mind quickly. social media reaction to today's program, what do we have? there is this you are a partisan maga media personality. okay. come on. give me an effing break. let let me ask you something. put that camera on me. is david axelrod a partisan media maga personality is george clooney is james carville is george stephanopoulos. are all of the people who are looking at the data and saying democrats have a problem if these patterns

hold and they are likely to all a bunch of partisan hacks. i'm not even in their party. i'm just repeating what they're offering and using data so don't blame me on november 6, when you wake up, okay. i will see you next week yeah, it's hard to watch yourself be pulled out of the building but a tornado hi, i'm janice, and i lost heard the two pounds. one goal of a friend told me that i was the only one holding me back from being as beautiful on the outside as a on the inside. once i saw gola was working felt this rush goler really works as a cardiologist when i put my patients on a statin to reduce cholesterol, i also tell them it can deplete their co queue ten levels i recommend taking qn all coke uten, q and all has three times

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