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>> at the table the economics reporter for the federal reserve action yesterday, or at least their news conference. >> right. >> headlines, federal reserve still forsees three interest rate cuts this year in spite of bump in inflation. what it the board decide? >> well, this he decided, this he didn't decide to do a lot yesterday, but the news sort of was that they decided to keep the three rate forecast for this y little bit up in the air because there had been a couple of inflation reports that showed prices are bit faster than they would like to see and most americans would like to see and the concern was whether they'd continue to pencil in those rate cuts which, you know, they're looking at cutting rates as inflation does come down and inflation has come down a lot of summer 2022 so there's a little worry, particularly on

wall street that they might pull back some of the forecasted rate cuts. chair jerome powell made clear that they're worried about some of the uptick of inflation in the past couple months. the story is the same as he put it and they'll be able to cut rates later this year. >> why are they a little bit concerned and not overly concerned? whck up? >> well you saw it tick up in january and february some of it was in rental prices and housing costs and some of it was in other services such as the car insurance is still a big thing. you have, you know more expensive cars, car prices went up a lot during this inflationary episode so now the cost to insure them is rising, but i think they felt like chair powell sugges some of this was temporary uptick or seasonal adjustment with the numbers and that oh in the coming months there should be-- we should see inflation come down a bit in terms of the growth of consumer prices coming down to the lower levels

that we saw in the second half of last year which is what gave them the optimism that they might be able to cut this year. >> what was the reaction from wall street? >> oh, it was positive. you saw the indexes. all three indexes closed at record highs as there was reassurance that they will cut and of course lower interest rates in general can help stock price,s, can help profits to some degree and share prices went up a lot yesterday as soon as that price conference during the press conference and after. happens when the federal reserve starts lowering starts making cuts to the interest rates? >> well timically and-- typically it should help mortgage rates, lower rates, and auto loans, maybe credit card rates, which is are near record highs come down and to consumers, business loans should be easier and cheaper. it could give a little bit of a

boost to the economy. and keep growth you know the economy is growing now, we have mployment so hopefully that if they're able to implement those rate cuts that would keep that economy growing the way it is now. >> has jerome and the federal reserve board landed this plane and avoided a recession? >> well so far, yes. i mean that seems to be what is happening and that's very good news, it's not what was expected at the end, if you go back to 2022 late 2022 expectation that the fed would have to raise rates so high that they would cause would cause people to pull back on spending so much that we would have a down turn. instead, even as they did raise rates, consumers con there were certainly some pullbacks in housing, home sales fell. car sales did so-so. but continued to grow and people companies continued to hire and so right, there's hope that the so-called soft landing where we would get inftion

back down to the fed's 2% target without a recession, so far we're on track for that. i mean chair powell won't declare victory yet, but so far, we are on track for that. >> i want to invite our viewers to join us in the conversation how you perceive the u.s. economy where you live. ... and tell us where you see the economy where you live. democrats dial in at (202) 748-8000, an independents (202) 748-8002 and you can also text us include your first name, city and join us on facebook.com/c-span or you can also join us on x. host at c-span ezra handle. what about food prices? if, is anything the federal reserve can do about food prices and uptick consumers have seen since the pandemic? >> guest: not probably much more than have been able to do

so far. food prices, grocery grocery prices as much as 25% higher than before the pandemic. even though the increases have come down in the past year they are only up about 1%, but that still on the higher than three or four years ago. what we've seen is consumers pushing back a bit. some of the big food companies have talked about theyprices a fair amount in the past couple of years and they seem sales drop off it looked on more private labels, god to discount stores. some of the bigger companies craft, hides procter & gamble people like that also in consumer goods heing able to raise prices as much issue. there may be a bit of a hike but there is evidence of that is slowing down and help his people will continue to get pay raises, on average in the past year or so americans on average have gotten some wage increases that outpace the price hikes. i think a lot of people will

still need to see a few more they have caught up. that's the hope. bringing prices back down the something usually happens in a very bad r wouldn't want that trauma not talk about lowering prices, talked aboutut not raising because wen. are not in recession? >> guest: that's right. even though wage increases are slowing as well which reduces some inflationary pressure, wages on average are rising a bit faster than were before the pandemic as that continues the goal is for people to feel they can afford a lot of the stuff more back to wear something close to it was before. >> host: we will get to your calls in a minute. first one to share what the federal reserve chair jerome powell had to say when he spoke to reporters yesterday after the board met. >> the committee decided at today's meeting to maintai range for the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.5%. and to continue the process us in. and to continue the process of sniffly producing our securities

holdings. as labor-- market tightens and progress o inflation has continued, the risks to achieving out employment and inflation goals are coming into better balance. we believe our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected it will likely be appropriate too begin dialing back policyck restraint at sometime this yea economic outlook is uncertain however and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. we are prepared to maintain the current target range for federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate. we know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we've seen on inflation and ultimately required even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2%. at the same time reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment, in considering any adjustments to

the target range for the federal funds rate the committee will carefully assessa, incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is living nothing sustainably down toward 2%. >> host: that was the federal reserve chair yesterday. the economics and federal reserve reporter with "the associated press." you will take your questions and, on the economy so will go to ron first maryland, independent. >> caller: good morning c-span. congratulations on your 45th anniversary. >> host: thank you lull calling this morning about h.r. 2513 which is the corporate transparency act which was passed in 2021 which impacts some 40, 35-40 nondeployed businesses and 70.4 million freelancers, 9.6 million of them

are self-employed. with 97% of the small businesses are required to file this report, the issue which went into effect january 1 of 2024, if you are incorporated before that date you have until january 1, 2025. five. if you incorporated this is after january you only have 90 days to find, finds a startup type of dollars a day up to $10,000, and it's two years of federal jail time for failure to report. people can get more information by going to positive change pc.com. i want to know if you can get someone from the national small business association filed a federal lawsuit on march 1 2024 struck down this and declared unconstitutional and there is been some coverage but very little coverage.

if you could get someone from the national smallne business association to speak toso this because the ruling is that it only covers the 65,000 members. but 32 million small businesses and people who have airbnb's will be impacted by this law okay. any thoughts on that? >> guest: well there has been businesses and people filing for new companies including ones that hire people so that's been a since the pandemic sometimes out of necessity people have struck out on their own. that's been a good thing kept a lot of peoplee employed and potentially could bring a lot of innovation into the economy so hopefully that will continue, the formation of new businesses. >> host: don in pennsylvania, republican your next. >> caller: thank you for

taking my call for everything inflation is coming under control but from a government spending standpoint, my local township taxes went. my medicare part b with a 6%. even if inflation is coming down the government spending, i don't know if that's part of the basket have determined inflation. it would be interesting to your comments regarding that. >> host: let's take that, interesting point. government spending try to write. it'sth not really part of the inflation basket so doesn't directly affect the numbers. there are some economists who worry more government spending does create, can help boost demand in the economy overall spending and i can potentially keep inflation higher. other people point out that, i me still sorting out has mostly been seen as a supply driven situation where we had the supply chain snarls and the pandemic, shortagest get things on store shelves and that is what drove both the

inflation that we've seen and as that has been sorted out that's how inflation is come down without even really significant loss of jobs, without any loss of jobs or without the recession that many people were worried about. governme spendg is something a lot of people do watch to see if they keep the economy may be growing faster tha it can and potentially contributing to inflation. >> host: reshot in maryland, democratic caller, good morning to you. >> caller: good morning gr good morning, chris. good to see on tv. i had to took chris and i been going to the same church for many years. he's a great guy so glad to see him on c-span this morning. >> guest: thank you my question chris is about the impact of housing prices on inflation. i know d.c. metro area of course housing prices are through the roof, and continue to go the roof as time

goes on. [inaudible] that are metro areas throughout the country whereng prices are actually decreasing, like charlotte, austin, texas and the key to that has beens something a lot of people are resistant to your. [inaudible] there is a big thing about essentially growing units that sort of thing in arlington as well. could you comment on the impacts of housing costs on the drivers of inflation? i will have to pick your brain more about economic policy during coffee are tragic thanks. good to hear from you. that's right shelter as come shelters overall category including home prices, cost of buying a home and rent, and that

has continued to be a big driver of inflation. in fact, if you were to factor that out ofr the data inflation would be back down low the federal reserve's 2% target. housing is definitely a big driver and rents have been coming down. well against the growth rate of rent has beenn coming down although inn some cities as you noted the actual rents themselves have declined and again if you go to make cases because people are building more apartments and building more housing nationwide whizzing almost a record number of new apartments coming online. during the pandemic people want to provoke him have more space so those a lot more demand which is what initially droveis up a lot of the ritz. there's been some response in terms of more apartment construction the hopefully that willti continue. you're right the more that does bring down the cost of rent, it's taking some time to fall into the government's data which is one reason why you still see

inflation above 2%. because the rental prices as the government measured them are still rising but if you look at what the private companies are measuring it, zillow, populace, things like that you can go online and see that data and th using the new rents for new leases coming down, not just a growing more slowly although that is happening in some places. actually come down. as that feeds into the the government did it helped that will bring inflation down further. again building more houses is a way do let's go to christine in cedar rapids, iowa, independent caller. >> caller: either. to turn to two things here. and our country were at a historical time. i think every knows we're not old days. we are going to have new world but i don't know if the american people have actually sat down and thought this. what kind ofld world do we want? because right now what we're getting, we're getting a

government that has split themselves in two. inevitablyly will split the whole country, democrats republicans whatever. i think it's time for change. we keep going down this road and we will keep taking it apart and believe the human extinction. all we have now is war. we have literally innovation that can't trust each other which when i grew up it didn't matter what side you on. you are still adult enough to be able to sit down talk. when i i come i didn't start watching c-span until the pandemic. it's appear to me that you've got a republican and a democrat side and these people that are in these groups, they go and ask them to do all the stuff but they may blame it on the party or the blind on trump or they blame it on biden. the problem here is we need to

take individual accountability, for one. >> host: are right. i want to share a question here down, the consumer has to quit buying things we really don't need. that's why prices during the supply and demand. >> guest: that's right. we don't want to blame it all on the consumer and there's only so much people can do and sometimes there are necessities you have buy of course but i think we're seeing a lot of what happened independent counsel take it as a came out of the pandemic with people did that money and there were stimulus checks from other government support and is the cases begin higher pay. people had a lot of money and of course,op been cooped up for a long time. the pandemic. one of the ways as companies did raise prices there were people could affordco it. people to some degree people could pay those high prices and some say the companies took advantage of that, others would say that's natural supply and demand reaction. but yes as some of that post

pandemic spending spree wears it seems so far we're headed in air direction where companies are saying that they can't raise prices much visited the past couple of years and is going to contribute ideally to bring down inflation for the. >> host: here i does the federal reserve december interest rates are? shouldn't that be can determine by the free markets? >> guest: that's a good question. many answers which are still determed by the free market. has its own rate which is a short-term rate a technically is paid by banks. that rate influences of the rates and influences the rate on the ten year bond issued by the federal government and that is a benchmark rate the thin influences mortgage rates auto loans and other things. there is a role for the free market. sometimes even when the fed changes its rate, it can have a delay or it can take time to flow through t financial markets because the our market forces that also act. the fed itself decides based on

various complicated ideas about how high rates need to be to slow spending and borrowing they have sometimes various rules they use as guides. but it is s more art than science on their end. there is still a role for some free market influence asthma trauma what sort of indicators is the fed watching to have the interest rates? >> guest: the fed has made that chair powell is made clear their very data dependent. it will look at inflation.da inflation numbers and a couple of different measures of that. they will be watching closely. the hope is that book by itself be enough to given that confidence to cut rates. they will be looking at things like jobs and unemployment as well. they do have whatl. they call dual mandates come only by the mandated by congress to keepbl prices stable to bring them down but also expected to keep annt and tried to injure or help engineer and economy with fulloy employment, maximum

employment. they will be looking at jobs as well. if there are signs people are gett off the unemployment rates going up that would encourage them to cut rates. help is inflation by southcom stout, continue to do so even as the economy continues to do well and what i think has encouraged a lot of people is that chair powell made clear yesterday even as the economy if it continues to grow and hiring contingent fso inflation i itself comes down able still potentially at this year. >> host: fremont ohio republican. hi, george. >> caller: good morning c-span. three really quick points, they all tie in together. start off with a question and i'll answer. what do the following countries have in common? sy argentina iran, venezuela, nigeria turkey? the answer is that they are all in hyperinflation. speaking hyperinflation, our national debt that increases by about a trillion dollars of the 100 days.s.

that puts us in a pickle. that's my third point. jerome powell and janet yellen have no way out. if they raise interest rates they're going to raise interest on our debt and it will increase even faster. if a lower interest rates it's going to get people more money more jobs and increase inflation that way i through spending. what is your comment on that? >> guest: s right. i mean, i think jerome powell is going make decisions about interest rates without an essentially concerned about how that affects the debt but that's right. the higher rates we havee seen already, i mean the fed said they think they he done rates. there at thepe peak of their interest rates for now. that is increased interest cost of the government. there's a question that's happen. that is a challenge but chair powell has made clear as most fedd chairs do, they think the spendingnd taxing decision on the government of two elected

officials and not them. although chair powell said he thinkst the deficit is not sustainable and it's something the government, congress and the white house should deal with. >> host: the unemployment rate in february was 3.9%. increased from 3.7% in january. what was that a sign of? >> guest: it's a of potentially some people worry about some so-called cracks in the labor market, and that you have still seen healthy hiring and the work a decent number of jobs added in february. a bit complicated the way the government measures these things.es sometimes they can point to different directions and that's what you saw in february where they did add the economy added jobs but we still saw a rise in the unemployment rate. chair powell said yesterday he still sees the job market as relatively healthy. over time again there's been some steady jobs added and the unemployment raten is double by historic standards.

but it is a bit something to watch. unemployment rate at the bottom it was 3.4% the lowest in 50 years about a year ago. so itas has come up since of an, but so it is something to watch even though most indicators, for example, there is a weekly measure of jobless claims which is how many people have been laid off and are seeking unemployment benefits. those numbers are still pretty low. it suggests layoffs are still not -- that layoffs are still very low historically. >> host: columbus, ohio, republican. hello, brandon. >> caller: how you doing today? >> host: good morning. >> caller: good morning. is, i have been a lifelong republican and some people don't think it matters th i am african-american as well.. i always have lived in a two-party household.

my mom was a democrat and my dad was a republican. we are still at that same point now with my wife, she's a democrat and i'm republican so usually cancel each other out amongst other- things. but my concern of the disinformation from my party to maga collision is that we are worse off in our economy now than we wereit before, that it's joe biden's fault. right now as the state of our economy, i mean look at the stock market. it's doing really, really well, which is a benefit for americans that are invested in the stock market scope whether you have a 401(k), and ira whenever you are invested in, you are benefiting from this. the current party is trying to

distract us and say oh well, the economy is horrible, blah, blah, blah. but it's not. it really isn't. i mean, this job creation. there's increased wealth. there's increased consumer spending. there's all these things that are contributing to the and they are looking at immigration is something that is negative. the one thing about immigration is we need immigration in order to sustain the economy. without immigrants with the amount of people that are born and die each year in the united states without immigrants we would not be able to exp our economy or even to sustain our economy. >> host: we will take that. >> guest: thatt: is interesting. the subject immigration what the caller mentioned at the end has been subject among a lot of economists.

there some reports suggesting immigration has been even higher than many expected and that has helped fill jobs. i mean there course the people arefi different opinions about this, but that more immigration has held again companies fill jobs. it's help them expand. we heard a lot about labor shortages during the pandemic and afterwards, a lot of thosert points have gone away. and so there is this idea, and chair powell has somewhat talked about this, that more immigration has helped people fill jobs. they have had -- that is help come is on the economy to grow without creating as much inflation as sort of a supply-side and if it. so we had high demand come out of pandemic with people having more money either from the stimulus checks or from higher pay and with more people able to work that's help meet that demand and does help the economy

grow as much inflation as might otherwise be the case. >> host: you can follow his report if you go to x and ap.org. thank you very much tragedy thank you and thank you for having me. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> booktv every sunday on c-span2 features leading authors discussing the latest nonfiction books. at two p.m. eastern we present coverage of the 2024 savannah book festival with conversations on the cia oglethorpe, like wall0 p.m. eastern on "after words" new school academic professor offers retirement in the u.s. attainable for more americans with retire repeat. watch booktv every sunday on c-span2 aind a full schedule under program guide to watch online anytime at booktv.org.

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