before, addition of finland and sweden added military to the roster and new plan and

after decades of underfunding, n.a.t.o. supported ukraine in recognition of the mounting russian threat. these causes for celebration, however, are juxtaposed with a deteriorating security environment including russia's illegal war of aggression against ukraine and a collection of unfinished business from last year' summit. so securing the future of the most successful alliance will require this year's summit to be one of implementation. come be expected to take action for the underequipped industrial base and frank and demonstration of plans for new challenges including respond the area responsibility. how will this feare the washington summit agenda? what will allies need to deliver to assure the alliance is able to defend every inch of n.a.t.o. today's discussion will be

preview ahead of what is expected to be a pivotal summit offering the transatlantic alliance and decision makers, tans tangible courses of action. the summit is in less than 100 days, stay tuned for even more of us over the coming more from us. and sustainable nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the united states a its allies. the center honors the general's service and body of ethos of nonpartisan commitment of cause and allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders. joining us today to share their perspectives includes minister

of national defense for the republics and lit■>huania. and the julianne smith, an ambassador to the united states, and an ambassador of the ukraine to the united amba deputy assistant secretary of state for euro asian affairs. and deputy chief of mission of charges of affair at the embassy republic of germany to the united states and mr. james rosco deputy head of mission at the british embassy in washington. the atlantic council would like to thank the lithuanian department of defense, our partners in the conference, we're shaping the future together with allies and partners. nowhere is our mission more important than conversations like this one. throughout today's discussions there will be time to ask questions in person or via

ac.org. we encourage you to join the conversation, #stronger with allies. i'd like to turn to the minister for remarks. the minister appointed to the position in march of 2024 and previously served on the of the department. it's our distinct pleasure to host him on his first visit to the united states. the floor is yours. welcome. [applause] >> thank you very much. lithuanian minister of defense is looking forward to the council and looking forward to a deeper one. so, about upcoming summits, about russia and about the

eastern flanks. first of all, i would say a few words about russia's capabilities as potential now to challenge n.a.t.o.'s eastern flank. i think last year we had some movement in the proceedings. and underestimating russia's ability to adapt. what we need to say, two things, russia with their economy and their war both, and many examples when they are moving forward. for example, before the war in ukraine, they produced 3, 400,000, now producing 2.2

million. it is despite sanctions and despite our attempts. so, we are on the war mode. sometimes we are hearing the questions, okay. but it cannot last long in that such kind of mode, but i think sometimes we apply western criteria, western thinking criteria to russia and it's not adequate because we don't hear about the social welfare. we don't care about any social things of society because society is manipulated, society is socially engineered. and of course, because oid opportunity and regime. so when you want to understand rush is a you should not apply western thinking. and it's not necessarily the strategy thinking of russia. second thing which we also saw,

so-called mobilization reserve and create a so call-- -- paying for people in russia and attract them to war. and 25 million, this is the number when we ask how many mobilizations russia can have, 25 million, compared to us and compared to ukraine, which is a big number. this is what we need to understand, we are preparing. the problem is, that when we try to tackle this challenge, we always we're counting how many years we need, three, five, seven, you know, many interpretations, many countings. i think we should change that approach. we should build our defense in that mode and manner in eastern flank in the whole of n.a.t.o. to control the process. so do not recoul their years,

but to control the process and to deter them. that's why n.a.t.o. decisions are so important. and i want to say what their moves and actions and directions, after madrid world summit, i think it's in a positive one. it's a positive one. first of all, of course, new defense plans. i think it's a breakthrough. so we transform from deterrence by punishment concept to deterrence by denial. especially after european when you say there is nothing to take back. we need to fight on the line and we need to be ready to fight on the line and deter on the line. that's why we need to have a credible defense in and based on principles forward defense.

and the plans, together with enforcement is a good direction to act. we need to tackle still the problems, as you know, capability gaps, air defense, many capabilities, long strike capabilities, but little by little we are moving forward. it's secure, and important for us eastern flank will be much more flexible responding to risk. when the capability is showed whatever crisis coming, we need to react for veterans. not fighting forward as russia, but to deter them. that's why we need flexible decisions, flexible response and more authority, more power for security is very, very important and i will say, we

also moving little by little toward this direction. we need exercises based on article five. with the transatlantic reenforcement, i think it's also would be very important. so acceptability of the defense plans. this is number one what we need, what we need to do. second thing, second point, is of course, defense investment and defense production. i will not say anything, you know it very well. we're trying and also europe is trying. we increased our production about 50%. we of course, europe is not on the war stage economy, but we're trying to find the solutions. also lithuania, also in europe. we agreed withnly for different spending and we should try toí0 transform the

money into the capabilities. how to do it in way, it's still a big, big challenge because even now, you have contract somewhere for ammunition, for the weapons, even if you have the money now, it comes in four years. it's not like in russia, as we know. ... ■, >> so of course the defense industrial base, we should improve here as much as possible. talking about defense architecture, i should mention i think very important decision made by germany and lithuania.

we he germany roadmap implement a step-by-step your i think it's a role model eastern flank countries for what kind of forward defense architecture we should build in eastern flank. but, of course, it was only the united states of america, in europe in eastern flank. so that's why when we are doing with the germany, the same, your presence -- troops and baltics in lithuania is vital for us. it's a vital factor of defense. you know, , i can see even one joke. i have -- with many -- not the baltics, senior expert analyst and some generals from western

countries. and then my colleague from nordic countries, like questions who's stronger? tiger or a leopard or something like this. he tells me, which army in eu general said america. no, no. in europe. we know america is the strongest. no, he said, america. so even in europe, american forces is the strongest forces. so that's why america is so vital for security. but, of course, as you see you are also investing in our defense, taking responsibility, taking actions also important. and i think germany is doing great job in eastern flank. third point, air defense. we need to great antiquated system. we know very well in our defense

capabilities has a good deficit in nato. so producing the air defense, long-range, medium-range, short range, it's vital. that's why know we and lithuania also a little bit shifting our priorities i would say. we're trying to make have here, creating the tank battalions step-by-step it also investing more into a middle range air defense system which could help to defend not only are armories but our citizens in the cities as we see in ukraine how it is vital. fourth thing, thinking about defense architecture, its ukrainian aspirations. we know very well. [speaking ukrainian] fighting not only for themselves, their fighting for europe. and just ask for ammunition.

they're not asking for troops, so give them tools to fight and to control and to contain the empire. it's so simple. it's like if you want, do not send the troops summative and the native country, most cheape we weapons and ammunition to ukraine. simple as that. it's that simple and political situation embassy. talking about nato and ukraine relations, i know it's difficult. at the same time we should not give to russia informal power on nato. no foreign country should have such kind of right. should also be based on that assumption. fifth point, it's nato in the

pacific. i think t■n processes and the situations are interconnected. and i think we should also do more in close cooperation between two regions, especially thinking how to contain and control the authoritarian regimes reach which are interconnected between themselves as an over well. so those of the main five points, and for the last thing but also i would say important one, i want to talk about puzzle which called escalation de-escalation thinking. i know that sometimes very much restrict some moves especially in the nato, thinking that support to ukraine. you know, doing nothing is -- we should put in mind because it is

russia. if you will just, you know, think that you will not do anything, they will consider it as you are peaceful now. we will take and break you. respec only if you're strong. very simple thing. its strength. you know it very well, classical things. so that's why we need to escape from this dilemma, which russia is trying to play with us. that's what we need active defense. sometimes even creating for russia also not only their dilemma but our dilemmas for them. thank you. [applause]; [inaudible] >> thoughtful comment, and i believe i know you have a busy schedule i think with time for least a fewue i wanted to starte

threat of harm it because i think some in the united states might say well, russia turned out to be weaker than we thought. it has its hands full and ukraine. putin is not foolish enough to attack a nato ally anytime soon. but you are right there on the front lines. so can you share with us what are the realities of the secure situation on nato speaker and and the russian threat? >> several factors. that, if you look at kaliningrad now, even less than what was before the war. does it deliver to ukraine. but at the same time we know what these forces, could be reinforced. you know, a new reform, army form in western district in 22 december to transform the brigade to division level. and if you look at the capability to do it in personal

level, we can do it very well. war and also is capable maybe not very much sophisticated but= to contribute the technical■i equipment for that kind of, building that kind of new -- that's what we can get very fast. as totalitarian country can do very fast. that's what we should adopt. adaptation of course is defense which i talked a little bit. another important factor is belarus. we don't see belarus as independent country. it's already integrated in domains of russia, especially military terms. and also i remember one conversation with som ukrainians before the war. in 2014, one keep your creams at

the time was -- was also after maidan to attack. you were saying president, could you give me guarantee? but unit, russia will not use territory. officially yes, of course where independent state. after some drinks, he asked the same question and he told him i will inform you in 48 hours. it was in 2014, i don't know how many hours now. that's why we do not, we do not see them as independent country. and it's also an important factor. but, of course, if you look at another special problem could be -- if you talk about conventional threats come from divisional war comes of course intelligence, you know, we have

capability for early warning system. but for no notice or short notice, something hybrid, below article number five we should always be prepared for that kind of thing. as you know we already survived one of a allies integration. luke schenker pushed people in our borders many to adapt to the -- lukashenko -- also could be for that. >> that makes sense and you talk a then to have the proper defense and deterrence as to the vilnius summit lester the new regional plans were agreed to, kind of the first series new defense plans are early since the end of the cold war. there been some public reporting that we don't yet have the capabilities that we need for these plans do we have what we need to defend nato's eastern flank? if not, what are the biggest

gaps in your? >> i think we are but recaps you said. air defense, heavy division so tanks, artillery systems, deep strike capabilities. i think we have a list of so-called gaps, but the gaps you can control. if we're moving forward, for defense, there is new energy. i think we can find the solutions. but your most important thing, america and europe. america security of your -- without america security of your is impossible. that's what we're doing our stuff, we know what we should invest in our defense, and we're doing, our aim is 3%. is 3%. we sit in the baltics 3%, not tonight. in the baltics we see 3% and we will achieve i think this year. so that's why we're doing a lot of -- but at the same time we

send a message to united states what, you know, when you did also. that's president of the united states in europe is biggest and most credible factor. >> i've had the opportunity to with the german and american commits on the ground there and i think that powerful to have that visible manifestation of american power there on the ground. a big summit coming up, 75th anniversary of the nato. people are debating what should the priorities be. from between his point of view what are the major priorities for the summit? what would you like to see from the main deliverables come out of some? >> the defense plan, filling the gaps, air defense. we have called air defense rotation model because different in nato we need to mobilize more sources into that. and, of course, ukraine and, of

course, ukraine. >> can you say more? of the course ukraine. what would you like to see? >> invitation, of course here. >> are great. well, i have many more questions but look at the clock i think we've come to the end of our time. any brief thoughts you would like to leave with the audience? >> just to thank you, and thank united states for in historical terms for our nation. america and helping in our freedom fighting in every stages of her history was so crucial. and that's why if you ask lithuanians which country always was most closest in historical terms supported our independence, stated is the united states. that's why that the women's circuit transatlantic and we will be safe together. thank you. >> wonderful. thanks also to lithuania.

as you know burden sharing is becoming a political issue in united states, and such great to see allies like lithuania that are more than pulling their weight. but thank you very much, minister kasciunas come for taking the time with us this money. we really appreciate your insights and look for to continue with these critical discussions in the months leading up to the washington summit. >> thank you. >> now i think it's time to transition to a nice segment and double turn the microphone to philip dickenson whose lady our transatlantic transatlantic security initiative. philip. -- who's a leading. [applause] >> thank you very much, and thank you, minister kasciunas for sharing lithuania perspective. lithuania is a vital ally a we really appreciate you sharing your thoughts and perspectives also make the transition from

vilnius to washington. as doctor? at minus philip dickenson. and acting director of the transit link security initiative he strategy and security. continuing with the program, we will shift our focus to brussels. we will just take a brief pause whilst we wait for the ambassador, audible julianne smith, u.s. ambassador to nato in brussels for conversation moderated by andrew desiderio, senior congressional reporter with punchbowl news. so we will be back in just one moment. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations]

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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome back everybody. to te next session which is the spears spotlight discussion with the honorable julianne smith, use ambassador to nato. , senior congressional reporter with punchbowl news. andrew, over two. >> thank you very much and thank you much to all of you for joining us here in person as well as on the live stream for today's event, a back to business birthday priority for the 2024 nato summit here in washington.

my name is andrew desiderio, senior congressional reporter for punchbowl news when we cover the power, people and politics that drive the decision making in our nation's capital, specifically on capitol hill. i'm delighted to be joined this morning, well it is afternoon for her, by the honorable julianne smith, united states permit representative to nato for conversation here about u.s. priorities heading into the summit here in washington. ambassador, thank you very much for taking the time to join us today. we would appreciate it. i wanted to note at the outset you were confirmed by the united states senate in november of 2021 by a voice vote. i know you had to wait a a lie bit to get that final confirmation done, but i just wanted to emphasize the fact that the ambassador was confirmed a v vote in the united states senate. obviously we know that in today's senate voice votes for diplomatic nominees are very few and far between. ted to mention that at

the outset. prior to her senate confirmation ambassador smith was a senior advisor to secretary blinken at the state department. she was also deputy national security adviser to then vice president joe biden. with that i want to dive right in,mbassador i don't think there's any doubt that nato is stronger today than it's ever been. it's really bigger than it's ever been when we talk about the accession of two new member nations and, of course, the alliance celibate t5t anniversary this year. so celebrate we2d can but, of course, there are some serious challenges as well that are top of mind for you and work of the to do there in brussels. for one,aine as a have a pivotal point right now in its war with russia here there's uncertainty about ukraine's path to nato membership and, of course, geopolitical uncertainty with elections happening on both sides of the atlantic this year that could have real impacts on the alliance as a whole. so witlike to get you to talk at

how you define success this year's nato summit weather will presumably continue to be questions about the longevity if you will of the western coalition supporting ukraine. >> sure. thanks for the invitation. it's great to join you this morning on the other side of the pond virtually. wish i could be there in person but alas, this virtual connection will have to do. in terms of the upcoming summit in july i think i would define success in kind of three main baskets. first and foremost as you said at the top this is in essence a celebration at its very hard. we are marking 75 years of working together with our allies, with the nato alliance over seven decades of every u.s. president irrespective of their political affiliation supporting and leading this alliance. and we expect that to continue. so it will be a celebration

thinking about the alliance's ag adaptability, its resilience in the face of all sorts of new challenges. so that's step number one, making sure we have taken and that to mark the moment, mark 35 years of working closely with our allies and all the alliance has been able to decades. basket number two in terms of success is marking a moment in terms of burden sharing. ten years ago allies agreed to spend 2% of their gdp on defense. when we made that pledge three allies are spending 2% of gdp on defense. today, at last count we are at least at 20, maybe we'll get what are two more before the summit occurs, but we're going to be to the point where we can celebrate two-thirds of the allies beating the 2% pledge. now, the real celebration will come when we get to 32. any use that we will be getting more and more allies and we're marching towards that they went

every member of the alliance will hit the 2%. but burden sharing will be a big part of what we talk about at the summit. it will be a key feature of the public engagement and also will be talk about burden sharing we just don't mean 2%. we are also talk about what we are all doing together to support our friends in ukraine. and that brings me to the last category iny marking success, having the opportunity to welcome president zelensky to washington to stand with 32 other leaders, to lock arms within and make sure that moscow understands a single message. and that is, nato allies are not going anywhere. we are not distracted. we are not looking away. we are not going inpatient. we will stand with ukraine for his long as it takes. and i think the message of solidarity, of resolve, of unity

around what's happening in ukraine will be a key feature of this summit. and, of course, we are working right now on an actual deliverable for ukraine which we might want to get into here in our discussion. but broadly i would say celebrating nato's 75 years, ensuring that we help the world understand how important burden sharing is and how far we have come inside the alliance on that front, and making sure that russia understands that we are alo that they can prevail. all of that will be part of a successful summit. >> yed a deliverable for ukraine. i would like you to get into that if you can come to the extent that you can. also note that atlantic council senior fellow ian brzezinski recently wrote that this year summit should quote grant ukraine a clear path to nato

membership. do you agree with that? and if so, what needs to happen specifically at this year's summit in order to make that happen? >> well, first at the top when we say new allies have been crystal clear we've been clear since 2008 that ukraine will become a member of the alliance. we reaffirm that last year at the vilnius summit when we said that ukraine's future place is in nato. but we were not prepared last summer to extend a proper invitation to ukraine for full-fledged membership. and i'm not expecting the alliance to do that this summer. what i am expecting allies to is to construct a bridge to membership by offering ukraine a deliverable that will enable them to become even closer to this alliance. last summer we create something called the nato ukraine council which just met a couple of weeks ago with president zelensky,, which enables ukraine to come to the nato table, sit at the table

as an equal, discuss whatever is on their mind. in this moment we were able to talk to president zelensky about his very real defense requirements, what they need right now in real time for success on the battlefield. but this nato ukraine council something we already created last summer, and you're going to see more news on what the allies are prepared to unveil this summer at the summit. i can't go into a lot of detail because allies are in the process of debating that right now, but what i will say is we are looking at a way to in at nato summit the bilateral support that has been provided to ukrain■fe over the last two yea. >> as you know, ambassador, last week finally sent a ukraine aid package to president biden's desperate it took several months, many iterations. it doesn't take a political scientist to conclude that support for ukraine a lease in

congress has gone down. much of it of course is driven by the far right as it is in other countries as well. you mentioned transit and unity in highlighting at this year's summit, what else can be done here in washington july to counteract of those forces? >> we are not waiting for july. i will say we collectively, the allies of themselves and the united united states, we are all working together to get a message out. we're getting the message out about the importance of this alliance, why was important that we created it 75 years ago. but also to help americans and publics money of the site is give an understanding nato is a very different organization. nato was created in a different era and it was prepared for different threats. it was much smaller. there were only 12 founding members. we are almost triple thatow with 32 member states. and we don't just limit ourselves to our work here in terms of conventional military

threat. this alliance and in and day out is looking at a variety of threats that cross a full definition of security challenges and threats here they represent our work on climate security, our work on cyber attacks. emerging and disruptive technologies, resilience, women peace and security. i could go on and on. we're working hard on defense production. so what was once an alliance that focus primarily on conventional military threats now is an alliance that copes with and addresses the full spectrum of security challenges as defined by the 30 to allies. so we've been working through public messaging campaigns to get the word out to answer tough questions from students, from veterans groups come from the private small-town mayors and governors. i've been out myself traveling across the united states, but so

have many of our allies. they made special trips to places like iowa and texas and alabama and beyond. we have to broaden the conversation we are having in the united states about why we created nato and why it still important 75 years later. so this is an ongoing conversation that we are having with a variety of audiences. anything you will see that@h engagement character right up to the summit and, in fact, be on. >> as you know ambassador, the senate nato observer group is very active on all of the things you just mentioned. in a recent letter to president biden the cochairs of the group jeanne shaheen and thom tillis wrote that this your summit should future quote a recognition of a a stroke or neuter partnership with allies in the indo-pacific. one of the things that stood out to me having to attended thet two nato summit in madrid as the those in vilnius last year was

the presence of these foreign leaders from indo-pacific nations. they are really engaged on the big picture security challenges, particularly ukraine, even the china is a pacing threat in their own backyard. for example, the japanese prime minister has said the best way to do for president xi from launching an invasion of taiwan is to defeat putin in ukraine. you hear a lot of people on capitol hill including mitch mcconnell the senate republican leader say things like deterrence is not divisible. in other words, you can't allow putin to just run roughshod over ukraine also credibly say you want to deter china from going into taiwan. can you talk a little bit about the involvement of indo-pacific nations in nato as a whole, what you expect at the july summit in that respect? and can you talk about why it's important to have been at the table?

>> well, thanks for that, absolutely. so nato has four indo-pacific partners and this country are japan, the republic of australia and new zealand. these are fourd spent recent yeg closer to the nato alliance, not because anyf them are talking about a global alliance or joining it as a proper member, but because as partners they value the opportunity to exchange best practices and insights on a variety of challenges that know no geographic limits. we are talking to our friends in the indo-pacific about things like maintaining our technological edge, about protecting ourselves and deterring cyber attacks. we are talk with him about disinformation campaigns stemming both from the prc and from russia and what those two countries are learning from one another. so those partners find real

value in exchange with nato allies, and similarly i can assure you that the allies here find real value and exchanging ideas and best practices with those four countries. on top of it though most of her indo-pacific partners have provided valuable assistance to a friend in ukraine, whether its economic existence, community assistance or security assistance. and they're doing that because they understand that ukrainians are not just fighting to preserve their own territorial integrity, but they are, in fact, protecting and trying to preserve the key tenets of the u.n. charter. and that gets right back to the question of sovereignty. but i will also note that the alliance is increasingly talking about what the prc is doing in and around the euro atlantic area. this is creeping me at topic of conversation inside the nato allies. we're doing a lot of work into

space. and as we look at that challenge we can no doubt learn from our friends in the indo-pacific and figure out how they coped with similar challenges in their own region. so if i had to guess, i would suspect that once again we will see the four indo-pacific partners join us at the washington summit. nothing has been finalized yet but i think after having had been present, both at the madrid summit in 2022 and the vilnius summit in 2023, i think we would welcome the chance to have those four leaders join us again at the washington summit. so stay tuned on that front. but this is a set of relationships i think all nato allies not just the united states but all nato allies find tremendous value in. >> something that's important you mentioned at the outset is this idea of burden sharing. as you know the 2014 whales summit was a critical moment for the alliance because it effectively set 2% benchmark in

terms of defensemen as a percentage of gdp. we are not in your summit summit but as you mentioned much of the alliance is still that benchmark. to what extent you with this year, this year's summit should address that shortfall? or maybe double down o it and you know make sure that, the number of nations that meet that benchmark is as high as >> well, i would just note for your audience that when you use the word most, most allies that meet the 2% and and that includes countries like germany, norway. there's a lot of breaking news out there. so at least 20 if not more a going to hit the 2% mark. so the majority of folks are there. now, that leads a handful of allies that are not yet there but i will say those allies have plans in place to get the 2% in two or three years. we will push, and we have pushed in recent years, but we will push as hard as we can to ensure

that all the allies get there. but i need to say something else, and that is, laster at the vilnius summit we make clear that 2% is a floor, not a ceiling. and we said that because we also rolled out regional plans for the first time in decades. now we had detailed military plans and what it takes to defend every inch of nato territory. and in order to realize of those plans i think were slowly reaching the conclusion that 2% will not be enough. and thatome of the countries that are already in the 2% camp have moved on to 2.5 to 3%. in the case of poland inching towards 4%. allies are not waiting for everybody else to catch up. we have a number of allies including some of our nordic friends. we had the united kingdom just make an announcement about their

desire to get romania 2.5. the number of allies are moving out on stretching beyond the 2% to ensure that we can replenish our stock from the valve assistance that we provided to ukraine over the last two years, and keep giving ukraine additional forms of security assistance. so this is generally a good news story. we'll be sure to on the gas that needed to ensure that every nato member meet its commitment to get to 2%, but we are on our way. >> and with that we're out of time unfortunate but ambassador smith, thank you very much for joining us here today and thank you to the atlantic council for hosting us this morning. we look forward to seeing you here in washington in july. >> thank you. thank you very