coast-to-coast we connected 850,000 les of fiber. our team broke speed barriers and deliverene kick speedster every customer come has led the way in developinge is offering the best and most reliable network on the go. mediacom, decades of dedication, decades of delivy, decades ahs c-sn is public service on with these other television providers giving you a front row seat to democry. >> next, look at the state of russia's defense industrial base as the war with ukraine continues. with details on russia's defense leadership, public opinion of the war and russia's relationship north korea. from the center for strategic and international studies, this is an hournd half.■f >> the state of russia's defense industry two years after the war, that's whate' about today.

it's incredibly tired of the conversation and comes on t a ne released yet csis a couple months ago turke of russia's defense industry call back. in stock. to discuss the report and discuss the state of russia's defense industry we have a fantastic panel. i enjoyed first off by my colleague here at csis, maria snegovaya, and also aesident sa. maria is a senior fellow for russia and eurasia■é■ as you associate nonresident fellow with our programs will asadvisoy program of the center for naval analysis. we are also joined by sarah bascom professor the carnegie er international peacess the streee thrilled she was able to brave the heat and cross join us today for this conversation. mari in. we released

months ago called back in stock that came on the heels of report that we did a year ai think it'e basic aes russia found its feet and was able to wrap up itsts defense industrial production. maybe to talk autheple turnovers useful. gue here, max, sam as well as others which we come to a sobering conclusion that adaptation tort is proceeding more successfully than expected and as was pointed out,ax, title, back in stock. what are the origi o this? thaty

stockpile. nobody really knows how much it has but to from satellites for example that russ goingef tou on the battlefield we see they are more contemporary types of components and as long as they . in additionther factors. the economy of russia is growing to keep going into this year 6.2% according to partly the result of the ability to continue the then reinvest it into the economy and then of course there is a factor particully with china.

to actually through china and there's a very interesting part in which the influx of component to the semi conductors and all of them coming from china it tends to wo china and what he is trying to achieve. and last least all those factors also contribute to military production to words more cheaper substitutes. we see that components

results in the use and cheaper components but lot of those it can continue. >> russia it seems has been able to rely on its hugeu@■■ of reserve equipment and modernizing that equipment. essentially it is good enough for hd. a critical contributor to this report and maybe you can ta lite bit about how production over the last year how that impacted plans in ukraine. there's sort of a war, the army that itad that it went to war with in 2022 and february,4í but now the army that has to

match its military needs and russia may have had to do evil of their and i should say that are coming from sunny florida is less than washington, d.c. right now. >>this report to try to update based on what we are seeing on the battlefield. a russia has several things going for it. number one, identifying the massive stockpiles of the systems especially dating from the cold war that could be modernized and number two and probably the most important elemt sustaining casualties without impacting the overall military performance. and o course going from last year and into this year from usf prisoners to now using a lot of

contractors and military personnel, the population has a lotes and this is rush has a large population has a lot of resources and this is sog ukrainesntified as a very important element in russia's inability to hang in the fight and is a something we've also identified in the report. so in theystems, mix of older systems and russia's ability to learn fully, not partially but fully to his learn from some mistakes in previous years and not the past. that doesn't russia is achieving s sd÷a■ is moving forward very, very slowly. it's wasting a lot of soldiers in the/d etiquette is capable of sustaining those casualties and moving forward is now kicked into high gear w the process of upgrading, developing and redesigning and fixing weapons and systems and a lot of

is done at enterprises that were extended to accommodate with people working double sometimes even trle doesm produce the same modern te of equipment thahas it been ablf build new or is it largely refurbishing? maybe you can talk about is able to equip its forces and what a the playing out right now? ..■ but russia didn't have these. they are regularly and session. ■

you do not systems for lots of uavs in the air movement large-scale maneuvering is very dangerous. small quantities of soldiers an. ed with flat armor is good enough. this is what we've seen your, they andir and they far.

>> has russia been able? the< industrial complex, how is russia able to sustain th struggling. >> much of the same way it's going to beat russia in that regard. offerth the vast borderl

the key components or elements of semi conductors. their countries contribute to this or less so turkeys rerouti. near russian borders.it's an efh the sanctions. when the important differences ther and they are very careful not to circumvent sanctionstly. with north(h korea willr in this

dynamic. this directly violates the sanctions that have nothing to lose. issiles going straight from north korea to russia. so it varies pretty irrationally its new opportunities goihe wo. we see it foreign affairs of thr time at some point this stream of opportunities will shrink. have as vast although nobody really knows for sure weimits to what they have and what they can produce. war y

certain weaknesses example russia is not self sustainable and it comes to showing and in that regard it has been the key problem with the of the export their right. we for example see in the report they're created in the last year their shell companies created deliberately for this purpo. but two, to the extent this is the problem essentially we need to beargeng

so far it has not been very having said that it's an important area to an ext contros on a is that indeed the components russia and we are reciting some of the military producers who are complaining abouto the kremlin but there are components with consistently rising pricesy sanctions do not work at all but unfortunately we coulduch, much better. >> it is sort of like sanctions a way to think about whether they work or not are they are providing sort of like a tax that is being put on russia supply chain. a transaction cos it is a cost worth the putting in place. let me bring you in for am curious for your and how you

russia having responded since the war began to ramping up its infants defense much. >> as my neighbors. i d people quoting from your report all the time. i think you've done a really excellent job outlining theprobs find myself in agreement a loti for anyone else who has to write onj industrial base you set the tone very high from the at and how i see this, i'm thi rec. it is restoring a damaged unit military to minimally sufficient level combat when we look out and see russian forces using bmp■ lawn■o5l#z wee really, really old

>> if it works, it works it's not going to work as well but there are using they have thousands of them out and's the far east. too see other people out there in social media nerd outn same way. it's incredible the amo them. i also think about this questioe industrial base you highlight these themes in the sense of

haven't triple shifts bring in prisoners, trying to fill thes . they are they are increasing.■ the space has plateaued you in this factory unless you take it off

materials from china. but then you cannot be the war @. the factories for exports and lose that market share for the part of the factory dedicated right now to repairing. have structural things cooked why they cannot turn the crank with the of areas of expertise which is dronesestmeno new factories we are seeing very when it's interesting rushes industrial base isq:■ wok in speciz fertility.r

or works with certain kinds of petrochemicals means you cannot do certain things related to jet fuel or like that. think about these choices they are making or not it's just like how they solve their manpower problem but we dy absently have to which we have done atnce. we would prefer to offer expensive social benefits and entitlements andit from violent felons. that is more stability we like that. there's a choice in the defense industri base not sinking money at this time forcibly muln factories and defense they have compelled labor them not change the laws to bring in more women.

arsenic on the battlefield and their defensive;s it seems to me at least right now of a really important within next state armament■r program. here's a defense ministehe abou. this 10 year rearmt program. that's on track at the new team is going plan will be very revealing for what they do next. with not tulip for wartimeeconou

convert to change how the society is structured■ any war a countryng short. it's hard to plan for sam,!/ we see some of to the russian defense industrial ramp-up. i think she

by relatively competent about his performance and that stand behind military performance■ a f new defense minister.ian backgr. in the specific connections in the military did not actually serve. as a massive uphill battle to maintain russia's p■vresse o e russian president has tasked this new defense possible cooperationon-

civilians and efforts in ts war. it is important to consider how is minister and hisentourage going to comes to e and getting■ weapons and systems out into the field. some of the practices for a much faster ability t field. it's a massive bureaucracy. there's a lot of corruption. that too has to be factored into this equion. it's really a mix. orities of power there's an absolutely massive machinelow to ad facing especially with

additional labor.d] do that's good enough. weapons and tactics are good en to be considered as well. drones specifically. defense industrial evolving. that's all of they figured

out ways to crack the code that real issues comes to drones. they shown an ability to evolve and adapt?■c■l middle-aged wrong long-range such which are flying u such as its ownents on some of e systems into more capable when it comes to tacticals aroud are completely unprepared for the impact of tactical almost one 100% capacity. most supply to the russian military come from volunteer /q with great success actually come from

those are purchased on china directly. it is a mix for the russian ■p relatively stable with military grade especially those with reconnaissance. on the other hand it relies on as we mentioned■' the defense minister of opening up the defense ministry innovation. a concern some of the weapons using tactical systems. all of those rely on important components. th simple from chinese components that almost one 100% capacity. russia substituting some of the achieving from

that goes for ukraine as well. there's no substitute russian government is industrial complex to come up with solutions to relight less and less on peacetime this becomes even more difficult this is where russia's reliance on china comes at a most crucial0; comes i want to go a little bit deeper into russia's new defense minister. before going let me maybe follow along with maybe a couplg employed in the war with impacts the russian use of glide■b as well as missile strikes

agaiin ukraine's energy infrastructure in early folks from the u minister of energy. the challenges are incredibly sr most experts on the are energy folks in ukrne figuring out how to rebuild their energy infrastructure. hunt does war has shifted in some ways a ground war to russiampact more effects. i am curious how much is production. we'll start withnd cocksure will speak about the operational impacts talking with that glide bombs getting longer■■ range as time goes on they are a huge

problem fkr forces operating positions on the ground, comma p villages. they're all being iac■i progress glide bombs to clarify are effectively older russian bombs but then they attach a it can glide to its targetprecise d consider. >> that is right, that is right. the rate at they have used is gone up quite sharplys i woun particular. it is can tell they're coming from that you have the authority to use weapons they dw in crimea. this is an ongoing challenge and prohibitive to strike russians4

aircraft the just returned. that is one issue. ident zelenskyy set a month ago down to 15% capacity they been chipping away since 2022 ey it. it is pretty methodical if you lo at theest few days electricity.in targeting■bhh you cannot have factories populating supying perhe and industrial facing. if you don't have any power there's many follow on effects to this if you're talking about the defense■v and populated that's part of it does make le so uncomfortable for civilians it's not livable they become

it pushes the chaos put the pressure on the government to sue for peace that's where we are igot very effective russia did not have the drones that are supplementing these attacks on ukrainian enrid. now they have botloosing strikee more and more complex complicated they're t ukrainianr defense systems they are countering it as aat and mouse game cycles during fast and tight right now are seeing a of adaptation in real-time. >> there is an exhausting population element works every time russian air force takes off it l do a strike everyone gets an alert that says take cover if that is happening continuously could be for people. maria, sam, how much o this the russian defense industry ramping

up allowing their missile production to ramp up what russia could use these expensive missiles for targeting energy battlefield effects. >> o q statistics 80% was destroyed by the russian strikes. that gives the general picture. my own friend and ukraine every time we are on a come every time we talk to demonstrate how bad the situation even if i have to recommend ukraine for i am able to substitute some will be more qualified to comment general it has been

pointeou elements is the emergence of various types of dnee imported directly from china you can purchase them at amazon like a webtech is been compiled into this chain ofdron. each of them have a different purpose which ended up being it seems fort russia the society this isortunately where volunteering efforts on the russian side being been quitesuccessful in supplyi.

the builtro only 30,000 per month. that's all that volunteer efforts on the ground unfortunately. quick sam, over to you. >> one of the moreeresting when describing the other side's advantage. fo truck tactical drone come to light at least after our report and we do rely on ukrainian numbers and assessments is that even if the russian civilian societies capable of manufacturing a staggering no be used in combat. even if we takeaine them are not going to stop birth for quality not going to fly out of the b several

kilometers and crash both sides with ukrainian russian forces jamming everything including their own■s and the ability to fly drones for both sides including the pilots. russian civil society rigow up y this is done with■j ponal financing. again mostly on people's own dime. the large number of manufacturers comes down to a much smaller number. but that number at which could be several thousand to several tens monthly is enough to maintain this seeing right now in the field. acknowledge hs

unprecedented involvement but civil society. lots of volunteers some sort out to be relatively auteur efforts! as they■n are capable of mobilizing society and people across the in many cities and they are cae for the capable of assembling drones. motorcycles, vehicles, cars, assembled medical kits, masks, or clothing and everything the soldiers need. in fact on russian telegram>% nere pleas for very specific set of equipment for which almost alwaysncies ine helicopters add to the■bility of the russian defense iexpensie have towards the end of the report is this a recognition a a combination of commercial

components as well as military components are adding to the=n strain and strengthening the russia■li overall. shakeup at the russian defense ministry.afw ouch. there is a new defense minister. when the finance economic background this has been seen defense industrial production o preparing for a long war. othe have highlighted maybe this is a shakeup that things are not going so another interpretation it's a and election it is a time team. atake of the

transition, shakeup, whatever you want to at the russian defense ministry. what does this pretend for the effort? >> we lea they do things.rief history. they're very close they are the friends that go and have barbecues out in the close. i'm sure have a lot of enemies they extend to the defense the s who also listen to and even annoyance within that military bloggers appears quite intense atim that uni they moved him isaac recognition by the kremlin this is not working out anymore7 ç.he is my good frn very loyal to me i can still use given a very good

position. have flashbacks he was amefense until 2012 until■ deposed by the fsb for corruption. he was in outside it with a financial background part he waa comprehensive reform program to break a lot ofhi was empowered o do this by the kremlin. organization of russian military starting a new procurement program a lot personnel. he made enemies of quickly. but also would fire people if they were not on board. we are talking 25% gone. as part of force reductions. once he got too close to money, investing the corruption schemes and things like that he was involved in his own corruption scheme is when he ran

into trouble. on russian tv the house getting rated there were b money. this whole sordid business. tha. he is an outsider. as an economist is an economic mind. he is not a bureaucrat that can■ understand everything that is going to happen underneath and within the generaltaople who re. and he is not an outsider long time. he is ideological comes from family of ideologues. d because of pollutant one suffie in this and that. is a structurs incredibly resistant to people looking into financiall] ■

relationships between the people in the ministry of defense, general staff. if someone comes in and starts a yanking on those■ and investigating the money that's when problems will■ hpen. this is going to be an interestg expen i do not know when particularly well. people who work for him in t past, he's a corky econost quirky economist. i'm trying to figure out how that leadership sells to make sense for that ministry of defense. we will see what he with the state armament program for this is ag-ra0. you have to have that money lined up for it.we'll see how h. >> i want to bring you in. comment?you think of the has he said anything about what

doing? or are we just going to wait for l armaments?u]■r he wants to ie inno are powerful structural problems at the lowest level of innatn trying to get the civilian base plugged in who does not want to give up market share bec every 20 year did get going with group x.i hear what he is sayind it's the right thing to say where it's made i don't know. you. >> i will add the thought meyer in corruption most levels of they were. on the grounds in the global commander are blaming the military corrup on the lack of weapons, lack of systems and

overall bad state of. can salvage the6i but againone with absolute massive machinery that's used to change. innovation presents itself as an to power but one of his more famous video clips■u■o comes from a few years ago is talking to putin saying russian drone dt is on the components to 90%. president putin acknowledges that and want something to be done. so that was then and this is now. the ministry of defense and the position of the high profile position. all es wil him. he's got very little room to cx he will be careful in projects w

he applies himself. he will have to deal with almost complete dominance most of the ministry of defense of procurement acquisition. he will have to deal with other massive enterprises are doing their own thing for years. and do not nessa w what in the more interesting elements from this war is howque capable of adapting some of the by volunteers on a very small scale on evenly different units having different levels of adapting not just on aerial on ground vehicle development. this runs counter to massive programs to build out different drones by that likes and man other enterprises. it is unclear what is going to

do he know all eyes are on him .he knows he is the center of attentionhooses to rock. we'll turn it over to you. you are a long-timeder of the tea leavesrussian elite. what do you make of the shakeup we have just seen? what's i definitely agree especially the fact is an adjustment effort to fight corruption. which is one of the original sense of the russian military. despite putin is a problem. i agree there's annt appointment. it looks fairly smart. adaptation some pointed out in a preparation for this is the person who may not be extremely

someonwoulavn corruptt disappointment. another interesting development elite. and one straightforward of appointment since the family nature. we an increasing numberthe daugy [inaudible] more recently with regards to■[ specifically and appointed appoy defense minister. a very high position.'rhow they.

but to me what it says is first of all and deliberate effort to make the■otem beyond putin we do not know w successor. it's not going anywhere. but that is an effort to make it sustainable. by replacing members with neomers who are loyal and insured by them belongit networ. to the right fami is an investmn the long-term future. while we think of these people not being ideological i would say these people are meaning they probably believed the same stages of and western ideas that putin embraces.

makes them into the system. the system gets used to them and they get used to the system. it isn't producible over the long term the system is becoming increasingly closed off. it's probably quite harsh unless you're likely to bev■■' putin's guard at some point. his example has exhibits part of the l the corrupt. one difference is remarkable. the we have seen that despite that was aimed specifically at■f the system.

the adaptation is quite successful. it's much more adaptable. will constitute thethe west. >> is a government. does not strike with that vast appointment. i could see a lot of pushback and the bureaucracy and i curious what is your take on th minder for any changes that might happening? >> is trying to think is whoof n about putin's nieceurvive. >> one year ago h.

left coup attempt.ment to me in putin has looked up for her and her husband for decades. i think ty coal mine that is pretty lucrative fci governor wa di appointment. shha a psychology degree from the late '80s early 90s. defenders of the fatherland phone a new organization could since the start of the warelp rn veterans gethek into society but that is what it is nominally supposed to do for the efficacy of this organization was not particularly well-funded to do that humongous to do been set up in every region.

this organization with clinicians and medical professionals and reach out to different groups to russia the challenges ptsd and put her in tone of sporting eventse which is important not downplaying them. it became more of the show. not based on the people working there. to be elevated from that with the deputy defense minister to t russian when they want to admit significant social problem coming home when these men are demobilized. putting that niece in the job a signal to everyone else. this is i family.

this isep is. it is a how to read itey do notd put them in eight mercenary a mercenary pipelinein africa o. quick summary thoughts on that before we return here? >> i agree peers very good one of the parents we are watching right now is the slow replacement of some of the older cadres with newer cadres.■ highn the kremlin. represents part of that trend. >> let's turn to north

putin did arowing out the windon nonproliferation. and it really sort of with north korea in a way we have not seen in the very l time. what does this say about the russian war effort? as a russia just sort of desperate to get more artillery? ishi the user going to his and get another re- up? how d perceive of this visit? what implications you tak from it from russia's war effort? correct we start with you and go to sam and maria.

>> i am, q interesting trip. a lot of stalinist vibes from how they presented■ñh that. bete oker face and was very poor i did not want to be there.re truly when it was needed and it was needed. i've for 25%,■g 50% don't fire properly or don't fire at all. it came in a very critical point bere mobilization had increased that reach for them. i had opportunity to help the "washington post" just today the storme all the shipments that are ongoing from north korea into russia. their explosive cargo, that's all we know it's a mar

one of the most dangerous are categories of shipping them acsso russia there any wherend missiles and everything. other components going in aswel. russia has very few partners north korea is one of them. congratulations i guess. putin's posture when he was meeting versus meeting in north forward leaning not slouch back. what is your on what this says about russia's current ongoing military efforts? are they working on potential shortages of artillery russia? what takeaways do you have■u frg

sanctions for many decades. it was able to maintain its military and we develop some of its systems into new fighting es ght after by russia. i believe it last year russia and had a special meeting for their people and iran basically said it russia does not have to can just use ag experience. th korea. russia could learn a lot about sanction busing and how to use a few available partners. it is assured by china and a handfu other states. this experience for russia. apart of course from the fact most of north korean military is actually a legacy at sie■pz%

copy paste principle of using north korean. >> what is your read for more of a foreign policy angle? does this mean essentially ■■-at front and center? and front of mine for everything that is guiding her russian gauges globally progress war ■ whom? that is the question we tend to focus on this between russia and ukraine for understandable documents at this time they need military assistance guaranteed. to me russia istern assistance o ukraine by saying hey you are supporting to6 country that is

important to me. i am going to do the same program to create problems that's important to you which is south why and a lot of concern(,%b was not support for ukraine by creating ts reliance. we know also north korea is sending a short range ballistic missiles which has been identified on the ground and in ukraine. this labor in russia these days north korea visit to russia.hat their to which this is going to be a majori doubt giveh

the resources it is clear putin is up to some long term counter balancing of the west. but potential to create as much trouble as pos viewers to look at some of water colleagues, when the former experts on north korea has done a lot of work and analysis on this. he the potential to boomerang and a negative way fo. and south korea and japan cementing our relationship in somore to support ukraine whichs something they have perhaps indicated progress so quickly jump in. it's one of the ways this can backfire is china it is not clear where china isn't pleased russia and north korea to understand if chinasn the loop. we will wait and see.

left. we turd a ltl bit we are assessing from the acquainting defense ministry and our own industrial productn well as europe. the pro- ukrainian sidechin some of what we are seeing. we have highlighted gearing up an responding. and how we see ukraine1 ukraine. the second half will spent a few minutes there and go and■hçíl lt where we think the war is ahead in the challenges aad. maybe i could start with you. how is ukraine responding to this current dynamic? the forces being on the

offensive. ukrainian infrastructure. ukraine is ramping and we could talk a little bit about that. and how we the current state of where we are in the conflict right now. how does it russian offensive worked out? and what does that kind of statement where this world go? [laughter] that is large question. the industria have their excel intages and innovation and adaptation at lower levels recognizing the center's ability to provide you need to develop on the gro networks and solutions and move quickly on and disseminate on ■n system is much more tolerant of that. recognizing there is development, rnd going on withig

to go up in down. in ukraine cumbersome and take a lot of time not efficient at so much red tape to get through from concept develop3$ t9ú tu soldiers. on the civilian excuse me the private defense industrial■7 trying to create solutions. rejectnternatial partners and get deals signed and having to run it through. that push pat and wanting to have an western outlook and approach very hard to do in the middle of a war like this.)respecially, and thil

challenge for them. the russians from the start of the war and continuously more eg industrial sites that many other aspects of theirtrait campaign. the guy after large factories o medium level factors and supply them and hit them with missiles. to even little individual workshops. is very dangerous. it detects a drone they have the ability to do >> you cannot move these things around a. >> they are attracted to a incredible amount of work that's being federated if it's in the middle of a city. it's very are trying to do the best that they

can. in terms of their disadvantes and russia has a functional defense industrial base. rt what is working on the ukrainian side.sa flip it around. the biggest chabibnge i see right now is the russian isr intelligence reconnaissance strike, sorry. 's gngeally tight. usinging the ability to put in ss 26 rb m it in minutes. >> advance missiles progress they are bst quick. newell target attack comes> they're targeting patriot. they are high targets the keep trying to go after and are succeeding. ic the beginning of the campaign the russians target

but they cannot strike the target as fast as we could for instance. now they've shot shrunk that >> this.shrunk it in same expert on russia continuously adapts to the ew cycle.■q and also i suspected others suspec receiving commercial satellite imagery p getting it through shell companies from the west. the ukrainians have noted this to a sites will be imaged and then a cou ds russian missile o. how have they created shell mpanies to get that strategic isr problem? >> one the things we have is ukraine using its own indigenous drone proct capabilities. particularlyushing back the russian black sea

fleet. having the strategic effects i was in odesa the ceilings were open. there were ships coming also it s strikes on russian territory using ukrainian owned develop technology. sam, is the focus of ukraine's defens iis that where they are y putting their effort? you to loosen other systems. but the that is what they're going to do themselves. are they creating a division of labor? >> is definitely one of their major efforts but we see how successful they havey russia drt can striht russia which p

infrastructure industry welldñ within the reach of drones are maritime drones which have indicad their quite successful going after the russian fleet. concentration in the ukrainian defense industry. they've been on the cutting missiles. it is not just drones but atomic warfare, reconnaissance,8p development of different types of kinetic systems to shoot down systems to design from both older cohort designs with some of the newer designs that know-e control systems and#mata analysd information sharing systems to enable all of these different targets and to strike targets. in many ways the are ahead of the entire world and

that. it gives a run for its be more established military men in the world. >> back to the big broad qu ago. where do you see the current state of the russian offensive? i ask this because:f it's almost two months or u.s. passi. it's supplemental assistance. clear ukraine was holding on by its fingernails. if i am wrong here, eight is flowing it does not feel like russian advances on the ground have resulted in much more they may be a few tactical kilometers here and there. t russia is throwing a lot out this. a lot at une■kh; did russia miss it's a moment? and then whatt say the

current state of the war putin has to go to north a supply? have the winds of the war shifted in ukraine's direction because of u.s. assistance? how do you see the current sta■h in the role of western aid right now? lex had two challengesere urgent. one, needed supplemental needed weapons asap. they have that now it's flowing in and paid the other issue that is not bnd as manpower and ukrainian unit. ■o immobilization. the c on the margin that look into recruiting■p■n. they are aware of it and trying and pushing anything toward a deeply

mobilization. they are not doing that. we passed that worst of in terms of the weapon scarcity■f issue. that is what is him blunting a rush it right n.■h a pretty sizable salient they are reforc it is very clear at their best units for the putting most of their i think they want to keep pushing aew÷! c■htiloads a not far from his critical roads. ■

to no combatxperience. initially they hadz story short that sector has been reinforced1a atopped. to the question did russia miss a men interesting for me to watch squander the advantages that were given to him by predecessor, mobilization of the economy with mobilization of the 300,000 troops, immediately committed them up and they licked their wounds and road out ian counteroffensive. this is what he is going to do. it's his signature. so far they're able to voluntees

that they're getting, they're ch month and losing a certain amount, whatever the realnumbert believe in. but in terms of the effects on the groun calibrating tightly but this is why you see them not being able forward despite having all of the advantages, despite havingá artillery advantages, despite the glide bombs and everything else. they are inflicting cuts on the ukrainian forces but they are not using their force wisely, i'm not going to tell them how to do it but that' they're at. >> so how do you things front ae role of aid and its importance? >> i think it's important to knowledge that russia has capacity to wait out ukrainian ■÷es and aid. has done so in 202020, 2023 ando

the same next y as well. well as the combination of military and civilian equipment to accomplish its many tactical goals, it is capable of doing so simply becausecx there's no acquisition to anything that's down at the highest levels,g tho acknowledge, if that this was work conducted by west, everything would be different by now but in russia things are done from the top and there's no any, way, shape and form to what the russian government wants and what the minister of defense is doing and so russia can continue to do the same and actually continue to gain territory and even to exert forces. western aid is extremely important in this■y ukraine has been able to hold back some of the russian

and advances by using aerial drones, for example, but even using those successful no substitute of using artillery at would give ukraine much n ability, give them something to be stressed about at differentp. we have to acknowledge once again that the front is very large and forces are committed at dfe meaning, there are different parts of the front that exhibit weaknesses on both sides and aid so it can continue with pressure and respond to russian counterattack with its ability to where we see this war headed.

marina, maybe i will start with you. but to pick up to the point that sam just mentioned about the kind of limited constraints on putin's ability to conduct the russian support in the sense that we have credible casualty numbers, as you mentioned, though, the economy is running hot, you'll see a debate inside of russia that will really not debate is not way, ■7gs all the money in the defense industry but challenges on thec. curious how you see russia the kind oflic, for russian elite, long-term support no, there are gains but no sort of, you know, structural strategic

gains aft■: another year of fight if we enter 2025 and k of a similar place. >> great question and i'm afraid we areut the russian society as the -- our expectation and forecast as we see the■ russian society to this star, particularly at the start of the war many expected that we will see some sort of advance dynamic losses of the casualties will eventually convert into some sort of social resistance on the grnd b the fact that russian losses outnumber what the casualt tenfold or more even, right, we are talking about 15,000 total in afghanistan, somethingike that. it still has not all convert

today anything remotel which suggests to me personally j]thathe origin of the system specified by analysts at the te ithe real ors came from the economic problems, the fatigue with the system which then was triggered by the casualties and the war, loss in the system, right now we■n where as we -- some have pointed out the response of the russian make team to the■■f has actually resulted in quite unprecedend russian economy for now with the it's and i'm coming to that in e situation has improved dramatically specifically for regions which tend to be the losers in the putin system.we ss

up more people in the regions traditional attemptt was very quite the original edition which was not so popular,ting, regions with employment and people receive a ey in some instances to -- so ws dynamic, you know, given the value of the human rights, life in russia, i would not expect social and there's more support for the war right

used to be months ago, division of where things are going, but it also sge that -- the regime in the economy,e r crisis including t lapse happened after the -- so did the see all of the dynamicsha discussing today crumbling including lack of investment in the military support for the society, payments to society, eventual losses in the battlefield which will definitely convert in decrease for support of the war but unfortunately we are nowhere and want clear to take away from this is for us to tryg russiaeah, no, targeting russian oil revenues is critical sometht

we will hopefully we will do work on. on the one hand if■i you want global oil prices, the united states is largest priers, you are trying to tak it's 10% of the global share. tactical innovations that we should be looking out for in des ai or in the drone space or is o basics with air power becoming a bigger player in the world. what are some of the things that you're looking for intt■a

evolving battlefield or battle sea, battle face and air in t surviving landscape? alooking at counteruasn side technology and there are a lot get the attention of the stateo develop something, we c is a priority effort for the russians and also for the ukrainians as well. in terms of technology, everybody is looking for the silver bullet, what's going to solve it, and there's not don't look to long-range attacks to solve the problem. it has to be -- it has to be a define what itsfectry look like and marshal your

resources and actions in pursuit of that goal so pretty soon for some kind of decision to be clarified on that point at least for the role that we play inqi expect moving forward through tend of this year and early into next, russia is starting to emphasize on thel field. maybe that wl ukraine has more artillery shells but they are starting■u o realize that this is not an aninfinite highlights t only 20% new bui. maybe 75 80%, they do commit

to a permanent change and they start building new factories ant force as quickly as possible and pushing aside some of the stability concerns that they have, we are not there yet but good to be vigilant >> sam, over to >> the russian military is on the record for 3 distinct priorities involve involvement in ukraine. number one using artificials and understanding the battlefield situation. number two, development of different types of uav's and aerial drones whether thatn stay remains to be seend finally, developingy fires, these are the 3

are actually we are seeing a lot of aceiving funding but remainso be seen what russia's nearly large bureaucratic machine is going to implement that especially with a former at the of the entire structure and they able to take control of the process which is are necessary to implement the initiatives into the larger militas a little bit in that whether our -- whether we are sort of ramping up our production enough and by us i mean the kind of ingeneral supporters of ukraine, countries around the world. the eu is actually meeting the are going to discuss something called bonds borrowing money, put the money to put down on to ramp up certain production. they are unlikely to agree to that. but it strikes me that that's

where we are still sort of falling short a bit on the kind of ramp-up, on the u.s. side the supplent understanding enables the 155limer production of artillery, that's going to be ramping up. are we just sort ofgging behinde far behind, how do you see this in terms of -- if we just project out that u.s. support and western support for ukraine will continue asd up a lot in terms of artillery rounds, we went from being dramatically far behind to still trailing but, you know, not equalizing but getting closer to it. and i think that's important. not just for usor allies in europe as well, various germoann particularly forward-leaning in this regard like does it give us, ting russians would like nothing more to

fight the war and have it not being escalitory, there's an improvedyle of war that the not using those capabilities are because they are escalatory. i challenge not to let the russians channelizeger question, i would say there's a few that they should be a wake-up ys not with respect to air6o we hal shortage of them. patriot is a very good system. there are not enough patriots, we are talking about asking for intercepters from allies and partners to keep feeding defenses for ukraine. this is a huge problem. it's a probl the

united states isn't particularly well defended neier is these are some of our partners in asia demand the middle east, this is -- >> sam, final thoughts from you? >> ihi listening to ukrainians a lot more. i think ukrainians know what they need and want. ukraines have been studying the russian threat very and they actually have very important lessons for militaries in the united states of that knowledge into oura structure, into ourelines is goo be important to go forward. >> great, well, i want to thank you all, we are going to have to at time. but i think it's bee fascinating conversation again. i want to highlight the paper. it's back in stock, the state russia's defenses industry after

two years of the war, credit to my coauthors, nick course, sam, you can get it online at our you can find everything that is putting out. sam thanks for joining us from■. if you like this conversation also please take your phone and where -- you listen to your dcast bring up that app and subscribe to the russian topics like this. you can check out the staff lot of the issues involving european union and nato, nato summit coming up and we will beincredit washington in a few weeks. we will be doing lots of coverage on the russian roulette for that. thank you so much for tin i#q■vx

>> ipleased to be a part of today's plenary, charting a path forward, working through america's political divide. and boy, is