>> welcome back to washingtondownal we joined by christopher divine from university, of dayton. welcome to the program. >> thank you, i am glad to be here. >> do running mating matter? >> good question, they do. they don't matter in way that people think about it. even discussions now with kamala harris pick. some people focus on picking' a certain state. like buying a state on the cheap. we don't t find much evidence on that, or find that you could pick off a group of voters that way. key demographic group. where running mates matter is how we think of presidential candidate. what does this picturetel us

about kamala harris. what does jd vance tell us about a second donald trump term. it v tells you something about judgment in a priorities and sometimes ideology, and there are things. like kamala harris she is well-known, there is a lot for people to learn about her as potential president. so, i think this pick help to fill in blanks influence how voters respond she could help herself or hurt herself. >> talk about vetting process, there iss not a lot of time. typically there is more time, what goes into that vet progress. -- vetting process. >> great question, there was a time vp was picked at the convention. it was a party choice in the moment,n barely time to consider. maybe a day or so, since

early 1970s parties changed their rules now we have a process, whoever wins primary, in a give' state that person gets delegates. so, he had to release delegates. for donald trump thises year, if joe biden stayed in race, you know there is time in between the presidential nomination being -- in convention to vatican -- vet the candidates, they go threw this vetting process. they are looking to everything, their political record, how they voted in past and public statements and private statements, and family life, medical records, financial records and candidates, have gone through this joe lieberman being one compared to a colonoscopy, invasive. the rule get skeletons out

of the closet before the campaign. if we go with them we could leak it out beforehand to it known before the announcement is made and make sure people can live with that. kamala harris has a challenge, she has to rush that process, there is some time but not as much time as usual, they have to be extra careful about not missing something. >> is that vetting process standard, for or is it each candidate gets to decide these are what up to know or are not important to me. >>re right, it is up to candidate. that person's campaign, however, there is a sit of procedures overtime. just like by the way power of vice presidents have grown. they are informal changes that nobody has to follow. it isro just, come to be that way itt works to advance of campaign. people have seen in past, this process by the way just liking out names to press,

you know some campaigns that are often at odds with press they value that royal. puttingg names out there. just so reporters can go investigate the folks as well. members of party can react to it. the whole process serves the campaign well because they need to know what is wrong with theai candidate. and if there is something wrong with everyone. everyone has pros and cons, and they need to know before they arere stuck with that selection, some conversation right now, i don't know it is okay some team say donald trump might be regretting picking jd vance, once you make that choice there say nomination, you are stuck. better get stuff out of way now. >> is mr. trump stuck with jd vance? could he switch him out or just legally too late? >> right, i'm not saying that trump is stuck with vance. someop people see it, he has

been officially nominated if he made a change, i don't know how that would work out in all given states you have with deadlines coming to play with issue of whether joe biden would be on ballot or someone else. we have early virtual roll call. that could get tricky. i would be shocked if donald trump were to replace jd vance i think they highway hope it is him gets his feet wet. jdis vance has never been through a international campaign. advantage of joe biden picking kamala harris. she had been in national spotlight, she was scrutinized. you find out things about how they perform that that setting andt history and policy, by picking someone who run for one election in his lifetime, jd vance 39-year-old new to senate, trump took a risk, he is finding out what happens when you take that risk. some of that stuff me may

not have known going as well to the pick. >> let's look at portion of senator schumer talking about that pick. from "face the nation" yesterday. >> the addition of jd vance to this ticket it is incredibly bad choice. i think donald trump i know him, and he is probably sitting and watching the tv, every day, vance it comes out vance has done something more extreme or weird. more erratic, seems to be more erratic and more extreme than trump, i bet former president trump is sitting there scratching his head wondering why did i pick this guy, the choice may one of best things he did for democrats. >> what do -- president has about 10 days before the ohio ballot is locked in he has a choice does he keep vance on ticket.

he has already baggage, there may be more baggage or someone new it is his choice. >> chris, what do you think? >> you know, i think trump campaign could have placed a lot of these in advance, they had access to this information about jd vance, we're hearing on comments made months or years in past. they should have caught some of these through the vetting process, i assume they did know about it and say his strengths overcome his weakness, i think they saw strength in jd vance, still do about his ability to reassure the base of party, he is someone who will be loyal to donald trump. agrees with him on most policy, sometimes want toes es to -- want to go further, he has to walk things back. jd vance hey believe they believe has strengths. it dud get more complicated now that joe biden is not candidate.

should is talk you hearing now running against kamala harris you want to pick someone different. donald trump hisso other finalist, were doug burgum and marco rubio. and going along with what i said before, they were safer picks and better for donald trump this not to say jd vancey could not be a good candidate or a good vice president, thatsa a judgment call for viewers, but in terms of his experience, and readiness to run a international campaign and serve in -- national campaign and serve in national office, that was a risk that trump took. he would have been safer picking someone else, rubio.o. with a quarter century of experience. federal,ls state, local government and run a fairly successful national campaign for president in 2016, would have been a better pick. >> had you see this pick

coming, senator vance. >> i spent 2010 getting everything wrong about politics 2020 has been getting better. we'll see how it goes. i think looking back at donald trump experience with vice president mike pence. we know, he now sees -- he does not think life that pickhe or mike pence, i would say donald trump in way he talks about him mike pence was a villain, why, because he was disloyal throughout campaign, in throughout his vicegn presidency, no he was loyal but he had a point he was confronted with something that donald trump asked him on january 6, trump asked him to do something that vice president pence in his power in constitution, did not have authority to do, pence chose to follow his can constitutional authority rather than trump's orders and trump saw it as disloyal

and unforgivable, heading to this choice, i think with donald trump was saying is who is someone who no matter what i ask to do, will say yes. who will say, yes in january 6 type scenario, mike pence said no, you look at resume that is what stands out about jd vance. he went on range of talk shows, he would stick up for donald trump. and if not urge to go further that was appealing about jd vance. >> and you can join conversation if you would like to give us a call. our guest christopher divine, political science association professor the university of dayton.

coauthor of book, new runningg mates matter. you can start culling in now. chris, what do you think of vice president harris needing to look at as she makes that decision of running mate and do you have a predicttion? >> in my answer is based on my research, in looking at past elections, we can show in fact this choice has to be of someone who is credible, ready to be president. vice president or president if necessary. if voters are particular, that above all places. number one they want someone who a credible vice president or president if they doubt the qualifications of that person, as people did.

with sara palin. they will hold that against the the candidate. if kamala harris trying on be too clever, picks off battle ground state, voters will say, where is your judgment? were you just trying to win an election and not govern, she needs to show people she is serious about governing, there is a range of qualify people out there. many are on short list some are not, she could pick someone that is ready and more experienced. she might factor in other things for example we see in republicans line of attack on kamala harris, right away, she is too liberal. a san francisco liberal, one way she could fight back against that kind of take on her candidacy is to choose someone is fairly moderate, andy bashir is a

great example and mark kelly from arizona, they are perceived as rel relative moderates, if she chose them some people would look at them and say, maybe she not so liberal. >> a question on -- do you think president biden will soon transfer power to vp harris, so she can run as as an incumbent and improve her odds on win. >> i was wondering that after june 27 debate. maybe president biden would drop out of race. maybe give kamala harris an opportunity to run as an incumbent. traditionally they do better we see this in congressional races as well. in odds with way we talk

about people in power, throw the bums out drain the swamp. but reelection rates in congress, last time 2022, first time in many years 100% of senators running for reelection won. they find there is a bump that goes with running as an incumbent. there is a question about whether still applies today as much in past. traditionally, they dod better. but, that may be too much. to people who might be concerned. if joe biden is not up to another term and running this time why still serve at president. maybe he should not be in that role any more, that is a fair question. >> to phone, derrick and

williamsburg. >> >> good morning. >> which presidential nominee do you think was the most con sequential electoral history, do you think ever actually hadn't impact on thell outcome of the election. thank you for o your time. i apd day. >> thank you for that question. i think vice presidential. there are a range of candidates who may have contributed to a campaign, lbj people say, in razor thin you know election, jfk won, maybe that is what delivered texas and delivered the presidency

toat john kennedy. something that we have researched and he was less popular in texas than the south. and we doubt that he delivered that, there were some shenanigans he seemed to be involved in. inin delivery illegal votes. that is one thing to point. but maybe not normal reasons. one other example. in 1992, bill clinton chose al gore for vice president, that is relative to today. i can't say it delivered election. he won a healthy margin. but clinton used an interesting strategy that kamala harris might want to keep in mind, instead of automatically trying to plans who he was -- balance who he was. he chose someone who was a lot like him.

a fellow new democrat. relatively moderate southern democrat that did, i think brilliant, was too double down in his campaign message about who he was, get across voters. kamala harris this time, could choose to do the same thing, part of who she is. maybe gender people say you can't pick gretchen whitmer, because you have two women on ticket, that not necessarily true if they judge that gender is a string strength for her and getting her message across about abortion for example, they would be doubling down by picking gretchen whitmer. and dealt with abortion

issues in michigan. >> hello, you are really gorgeous. i just want to say that kamala harris should pick thela governor from pennsylvania. really i think a very good chemistry. for them. choose him for vp. >> that sul a have to say thank you. >> chris, what do you think of governor shapiro? >> couple points on there. governor of pennsylvania. that is something that i thinkpe will bring top of this conversation, i would say probably as far as buzz aaround various candidates shapiro might be at top of list, a lot think it is a good way to pick up state of pennsylvania and electoral votes that could crucial for kamala harris, i am kept skeptical about

home state advantage there is littles every you get this result. if requires something very nuance and strategic among voters that wouldt like at candidate say i prefer donald trump or rather not vote, i just assume not vote.. we get caught up in veepstake discussions it seems to be real logic does not hold well ands every does not support it well, shapiro has a lot of qualifications, high profile in the state, and voters there think he is doing a good job. latest polling, fox news poll approval rating 61%, they are good reason to pick apart from pennsylvania, in harris campaign picks him they would pick him if we

based on primarily him being from pennsylvania, i think they are making a strategic mistake, focus on qualifications and meritsts. >> let's look at what governor west moore of maryland said yesterday on abc's this week. >> i want to ask you, said you are not interested in being vice president harris a vice presidential pick. what do you think is important when he looks at a candidate. . >> i have been flattered by the level of interest. and i love my job, i want to continue to my job. i think she needs to look for most is person that gives her a since of comfort that this is my partner in work, i do not think she needs to go through an

exercise of finding what boxes to check or part of the country, the truth if you look at history, that has not been the case in recent history last time that was factored in 1960. she has to pick someone who she knows will are her partner ind work that is only criteria she should focus on. >> w you agree. >> that is a great way of looking at it. this person will not affect the election that much. they tell you something about presidential candidate. it will matter long-term. if this is someone who deserves torm be president, donald trump or kamala harris. whoever it might be, if they deserve to be president they need to demonstrate good judgment and leadership with a pick, are they choosing someone they could serve with well for 4 years, kamala harris as

sitting vice president, is sensitive to that argument. will be serious about this choice. she will campaign advisers and people who she meeting at events. it is, but i think it is over state the impact of have p candidate, it is actually often understated. she needs to pick someone who can help her govern well. >> chris, we have this bobby, when time for republican convention was approaching and trump had not selected a vp, word is is that vp does not matter, why does it matter now. >> it always matters, changed somewhat overtime, home state advantage it might have mattered more. if we think back to

1800s. vice presidents were less powerful. the way they are used by presidents has changed a lot. starting with jimmy carter. they are argument back then this person is not con sequential unless the president dies, which sometimes happens, it also, peoplent were more offed with aon local geography viewers may be familiar with a time people identified with their state more so than united states there vehicle been a point where you could deliver the home state advantage by choosing someone from pennsylvania, new york or ohio or virginia. that might a matter more then, but, these days, i think it matt arer less who is on ticket. -- and more who is not white house everything is advice president. you have those two chg on at the same time that could guide the way we think about the choice. host: pact is a republican in new jersey.

-- pat is a republican in new jersey. caller: i think the selection of al gore for bill clinton did a certain amount of ticket balancing because it gave him an amount -- someone with access to the federal government. in 1972 nixon won 49 states. mcgovern picked tom eagleton. to that hurt him because they do drop that man from the ticket? guest: that is an excellent question. you're right on point. i appreciate you bringing up balancing federal versus state experience. that is something kamala harris should consider, she has federal government experience not state government someone with executive experience, by the way, could actually be useful, however, that person also may not have foreign policy experience, you have to balance these things. that's why tim walsh of

minnesota, not only state experience as two-term governor but federal experience having served more than a decade in the united states to the point of 1972, fascinating stories there and love the2, vp history. happy to discuss some of that. in 1972 you may be familiar that georgeman govern who was the underdog in the race, he chose thomas, the missouri senator for the vp slot, that was a rush vetting process by the way. party rules had changed but there was some complication in the convention and basically had to make the pick i think in 24 hours or so and he tried to get ted kennedy and he thought it was a doomed campaign. well-qualified senator, attracted in many ways for that kind of pick, the governor chose him, soon after that, it came out, it's a much more

complicated story. i encourage people to read, but he was taken off the ticket even though the governor said i'm thousand percent behind thomas eagleton, a few days later he drops him from the ticket and, of course, as pat said, they have gone to lose 49 states. while the course on this topic is very important especially as we approach our elections, do you think it was fair to disparage senator vance questioning his character, integrity without providing support r it and does this not

increase or increase or decrease the electorate, is it no wonder we have a lack of trust in government, media and education, why is it only one party, one party is always betrayed as evil and the other party is portrayed totally as a divine? thank you very much for your response. >> darrell, elaborate on what you mean by the criticism on senator vance's character? >> yes, well your guest spoke of vance as senator vance as being nothing more than a mere puppet to donald trump. that heot would not standby his own integrity and conventions as a public servant. he's a first-term senator and i've seen nothing that would even suggest that and for your guest to demonize someone like

that, i just don't think that helps us to understand the importance on understanding the issues of this election. >> let's get them to response to that. >> yes, i never used the word puppet. j.d. vance has not demonstrated he could say no to donald trump. he could demonstrate that and challenge him on something at this point -- lead up up to this election. one thing that i will point to that was alarming after the shooting of donald trump, the assassination attempt, a couple of weeks ago, right, and before any facts were known about the shooterbe jd vance went on socil media v to blame it on the biden campaign. that shows real eagerness to escalate things that is concerning in a potential vice president and the fact he did that in the h last days auditionings for the role, what j.d. vance expects donald trump would value in a vp, someone who would double down rather than taking opportunities perhaps lower the temperature.

>> and just want to show this, this is an axios article with this j.d. vance, this is according to the biden campaign j.d. vance would do what pence wouldn't on january 6th, it says what they are saying donald trump picked j.d. vance as running mate because vance would do what penn wouldn't. i would have told the states, pennsylvania, georgia and so many othersrg that we need today have multiple slates of of electors and i think the u.s. congress should have got from

there. cony, in tucson, arizona, democrat you're next. >> thank you. i would love to have kelly as our vice president. any one would be a good one. one of the things that bother trump is saying people with different languages are coming here, he was talking about argentina, he doesn't even know, he didn't even know puerto rico was part of the united states. he is the most illiterate person talking aboutso world affairs ad he hasg nothing nice to say ani dislike so much that he pushes women down. he wants to keep us down on our knees and i'm acceptable, not

america, the documents that he took, oh, dismissed, he took the most documents of anyone has in the history of the united states. what did heor plan to do with i? he needs to answer to that. he needs to answer to the people.ee they should care. he's at rapist, why do we chosea person who is a rapist? >> all right, cony, she did mention senatoror kelly in arizona. >> i think he's a very interesting choice and not clear who is going to be picked but he strikes me and i think a lot of people as perhaps the likeliest, the safest pick. i will say once more every candidate has pros and cons but what's potentially attractive about mark kelly, he's from arizona, again, i wouldn't put much in changing things but he's known as relative moderate and so maybe that would help kamala harris if she is perceived as too liberal in the race. i would say also that mentioning

foreign policy and federal experience before now mark kelly has not served in state office, has not been a governor so he doesn't have executive experience but that's one of the cons here but someone who has served in the federal government only for four years, he's won two tough races, though, campaign experience, has some foreign policy experience but, of course, beyond that, he was a fire pilot, an strond and extensive public service record but different from what we might see from people who have served in government for longer. so i think kamala harris and one of the things to factor in terms of policy, he's verified identified with gun control issues, he's the husband of gabby gifford shot years ago and seriously injured. they've campaigned for gun control. that's going to encourage some voters to, democrat party and

also on immigration issues, at least as far as public polling goes, he is a border state governor, perhaps he could speak to those issues better than other candidates that kamala t harrisis could pick. >> virginia in houston, texas, republican. >> i want to remind people that they need to do their research on our candidate. harris, she has already picked her team and you c-span program a while back and they was already telling who was going to be what if she's elected and people are not doing their research to find out who is running and who is going to be elected, butwi they're doing everything possible, they are bringing their nationality into

office and taking it. they are taking away rights, they are going to run a government, they are going to say how it's going to be and why it's going to be, turning our insurance down, putting us on one insurance and million other things that people be alert to. thank you. >> chris, your comments? >> i don't know what she's talking about. [laughter] >> all right. don, in washington, d.c., independent line, good morning, john. >> good morning, good morning to you, c-span listeners and your guests. i have two questions and one recommendation. the first question o is, in history, has there ever be a president that elected a vice president of the other party and second is that something that can be done now, second question, something that can be done now if kamala harris

decides she wants to have bipartisanship in the white house? she can do andng my recommendation is white house, superb vice president, in the event he p had to take position as president, he would be able to deal with the foreign leaders as well as our foreign adversaries. thank you so much for c-span, you guys do a great job for letting everybody in america voice our opinion. >> go ahead, chris. >> i love the question. vice presidential history. a couple that come to mind. in 1864 abraham lincoln was running for reelection of course during civil war and dumped vice president, republican, great vice presidential name from maine and he picked instead andrew johnson who had served in the united states senate as democrat. lincoln was a republican. they ran together on union party ticket really trying to make a statement about him as a wartime

president, u not as a party president but kind of a national one instead and so he picks johnson who is from tennessee, he sticks with the union states in the senate and so they kind of run together as sort of a bipartisan ticket, a republican and democrat together, of course, after lincoln is assassinated, johnson takes over and takes things in different direction and turns out to be worst president, didn't turn out well. john kerry reportedly offered the position, offered the vp slot to johnio mccain. i still wonder if this could actually be true. i don't think that kind of choice is received well within the party. you know, that's -- that's the report we get. but it could be a way of making a statement about bipartisanship and also aboutut ideology as i s mentions before.

would kamala harris would do it too, it doubt it. let's say andy basheer, for example. although that could be appealing bipartisanship or moderate pick, that could be appealing to general election voters especially undecided voters in the swing states who clearly are not. you alwayspe risk alienating the base of the party. some people in the democratic party are further to the left and more towards the center. vice versa for the republican party. if you go too far one way or the other,y. you could alienate some people although they prefer you on balance could been willing to vote in the case or go with third-party candidates. >> how do you think, chris, the media should cover the -- the selection of a running mate? doa you think there should be more focus on their policy,

their experience? >> thank you for asking, that's near and dear to my heart. news media coverage of the vice presidential selection process, what's wrong with the vp stakes, my conclusion there, this is looking at actual media coverage fromt 2000-2020 and actually looking at the things that journalists tend to bring up when they cover potential running mates. you see this all of the time. pros and cons, mark kelly, here are the pros and cons, andy basheer, and so i could track what they talked about substantively and they mostly talked about electoral, they talked way too little about experience andou qualifications. in fact, one of the juicier findings but it is what it is, journalists are as likely to talk about whether someone was qualified to be vp or president as the way to talk about their

physical appearance. lot of this stuff is super facial. i do see, i think, i hope some improvement in the last cycle or two with how journalists talked about vice presidential candidate and i would just encourage that more and more, that's part of why i'm out here today and do as many of these as i can because i want to get the word.. we need to think seriously about, not overstating the electoral impact. that's done way too often. let's talk more about qualifications, who can govern, what it tells you about the leadership of the presidential candidate, that's what really matters the most to voters and it matters in terms of the long-term interest of the country. >> and this iste anne, republicn in lake city tennessee. hi, anne. >> hey, i want to say good morning to my good friend carol but i want to ask this gentleman, does he think that kamala added anything? nobody knew who she was, what she was known for raising bail for criminals and want to go

defund the police. she has security all around her, so she's not worried about her safety. she also wants to takeaway guns but i guaranty, her secret service has guns. people need to look at her policies. >> chris. >> more of a comment than a question. i will go to the question. what she add today the ticket, that's a good question. all of the conversations about what impact do they have i go back to sometimes conventional wisdom, assumptions what would matter, what did matter last time and that's why i like to look at theis evidence about th, my coauthor and i do physical analysis of why people voted the way they did. i can tell you in kamala harris' case, the perception was that she was really going to help joe biden among women voters and black voters, some other voters but especially those two groups. those groups that tend to lead to democratic party especially black voter and could she help much more with them and this is

follow-up, we looked at her effect among women and black voters, black women voters in particular compared to the general electorate, she did have basically more of an impact among those groups than anyone else. yes, she did. she seem today increased joe biden's advantage among women, black voters and black women voters in particular but not that much.h. in the past when we looked at what we called targeted effects as mentioning women vice presidential candidates, 1984, 2008er sarah pay line, did theyn fact, help with, women. no, we found no evidence of that. and so oftentimes perception that certain candidate because they belong to this filling group, they are going to help with the group, juice the group, doesn't always turn out to be true. mike penceen in 2016 he deliverd evangelicals, no, when he dug into the evidence in the book, we could track, not our survey,

but survey evidence, surveys of people, the same people over time throughout the campaign focusing on evangelical voters. we did not see spike in support for donald trump following selection of mike pence among evangel cats. they probably came to trump for other reasons and because they tend to bebe republicans and how people vote, their partisan predisposition, they might latch onto vp choice, aja. , that's why i did it, they share my view on this, usually that's just the way of rationalizing a choice they are going toy make. >> chris, before i let you go, your newest book is called i'm here to ask for your vote, how presidential campaign visits influence voters, real quick, how do they influence voters? >> yes, conventional wisdom but what matters is trump's rally is the 2016 election is favored and the tag on joe biden about staying in basement 2020 was

decisive. what i find in this research is that campaign visits usually don't have much of an effect overall, possibly because you have both candidates campaigning pretty heavily, maybe if somebody drops off you see more of an effect, we did see that in 2020. when campaign visits really influence people and here i think is more interesting thing, it's that it ends to happen not by mobilizing voters like this is what people think to think, they must have just rallied the base of the party, gotten those people who already agreed with trump but we are not sure if they were going to vote, got them out to vote. that's not what the evidence indicates, they are more effective atde persuading voters that some people who might not have their mind made up when the candidate comes to town, they pay attention to that. they are hearing about it in local media or a friend, sometimes their influence by that visit, so actually i think that's encouraging in our current political environment that, yes, people sometimes do change their mind and they're watching the campaign and let's

hopemi that people critically i valuating what they see and they are not locked in already but responding some information, that's a vp pick or in that case campaignr visit. >> political science at the university of dayton and coauthor of the book do running mates matter, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. >> c-span washington journal, live forum involving you discuss the latest issues in government, politics and public policy, from washington and across the country, coming up tuesday morning, we will talk about campaign 2024, first with mark lotter, former communications director and special assistant to the trump-pence 2020 campaign and then we will continue the conversation with democratic pollster and strategist. c-span washington journal, join in the conversation live at 7:0n c-span. c-span now our free mobile app or online at c-span.org.

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