>> christine mcdaniel, thank you for the conversation this morning. >> thank you. washington journal continue.

host: welcome back to washington journal. we are joined by jacob rubashkin , the deputy editor of inside elections. welcome. let's start with the primary results from last night. maryland welcome back to washington journal. we are joined by the deputy editor of inside elections. welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> let's start with the primary

results from last night. maryland was, the maryland senate race was determined on the democratic side. tell us what happened. >> there was a very closely watched democratic primary in maryland with the outgoing senator not running for reelection. we saw two major democratic candidates, prince george's county executive angela alsobrooks, in western maryland rissman david trone vying for the nomination. he spent $62 million of his own money, is very wealthy, on this race. more money than anyone has self- funded in a senate primary in american history. also, also. spent just a fraction on her campaign. when all the votes were tallied, she ended up winning by about 12 points. quite the stunning result is

looking at the financial picture. on the republican side, we have governor larry hogan, the former governor, win the republican nomination. he will be the nominee. he will make maryland, which is traditionally a very blue democratic state, into a top- tier senate race come the fall. >> let's go back to the primary on the dented product side. what you think that was? given how much money trone spent as compared to miss also brooks, why was she successful? >> i think it is a couple of things. the underlying factor is that you can have all the money in the world, but if voters are not buying what you are selling, it is not going to get you all the way there. i think ultimately what trone found out was that he hit a diminishing margin of return on every additional $1 million he put on tv. everyone knew who he was and what he was about . they did not want to vote for him. elections are choices. once also brooks spun up her

operation of voters knew they had a choice, they felt they would rather go with her. trone did not close out the race strongly. yet a number of gaffes. he used a racial slur at a congressional hearing . it was bad news after bad news for him in the final month, that crucial end period of the race. ultimately it shows in the results. >> you're talking about the senate race now between former republican governor of maryland, larry hogan. he was very popular, and angela also brooks. even though, as you were saying, maryland is very much leaning democratic, why do you think this could be competitive. >> because of the popularity of hogan. we saw him win two elections in 2014 and 2018, one very narrow live leak, -- narrowly.

but a landslide victory in 2018 which was a good democratic year nationwide, but in maryland he was able to appeal to independents and democrats in the state. if you look at his numbers, he is as popular, in some cases, maybe not now, but a year ago he was probably as popular among democrats as he was among republicans in maryland. he has significant support among black voters, which are traditionally democratic. he has very high numbers among independents. he brings a lot to the table. that makes them competitive. it doesn't make him the favorite. we know that even governors who are very popular in their own states, when they try to run for senate, oftentimes, they aren't able to seal the deal. >> why is that? >> the list is long. voters really do pay attention to the differences between a governor's race and senate race. they understand that a governor

is dealing with things internal to the state. they are an executive. they are dealing with the state legislature. that is the power dynamic. i think voters oftentimes in states that have a particular partisan event such as maryland or vermont or massachusetts actually appreciate having a governor from the other party to provide some semblance of balance at the state political level. but voters understand that control of the senate is a very, very different thing. it really matters on a national level whether democrats or republicans controlled the senate. the party affiliation of any given senator, i would argue, is actually more important than the party affiliation of a governor. larry hogan is a republican in maryland is a democratic state. even though voters like him, they don't like republicans.

they don't want republicans to be in charge or making policy at the national level. that is going to be the most compelling argument for democrats come the fall. >> we're focusing on the senate and campaign 2024. if you have a question for our guest, you can give us a call now. the lines are by region this time. sorry. by party. democrats 202-748-8000, republicans 748-8000 one and independents 8002. you can also send a text, 8003. we are on facebook and ex. let's talk about west virginia. that has joe manchin, democrat who is announced his retirement. what are you looking at their? >> the state is crucial to the senate map. it is, by far, republicans best pickup opportunity. the senate is split with 51 democrats and 49 republicans. if trump wins the presidency, all republicans need is to flip one seat in the senate in order to reclaim majority.

the 5050 split with the vice presidential tie-breaking vote. joe manchin was the only democrat who could hold a senate seat in west virginia. this is a state that has become so republican that it was a miracle he was able to win his last election in 2018. >> why was he able to win? >> a number of factors. that was a really good year for democrats with that trump presidency motivating and energizing democratic voters in all corners of the country, even places where democrats have not shown much strength. he had that calling for him. any weak republican opponent and patrick morrissey who actually is now going to be the next governor of west virginia. at that time, he came out very bruised from a primary. he didn't have a lot of money.

mansion was popular. -- joe manchin was popular. he had an appeal. he was able to win by under three points. and so, i think he saw the writing on the wall. that is why he decided not to run for reelection. governor jim justice, the outgoing governor, is going to be the next senator. he won a convincing victory in the republican primary last night and should have no problem winning the general election in the fall. >> zooming out to the senate in general, your recent newsletter had this title with a favorable map and donald trump leading joe biden in the presidential race, republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the senate in 2024. explained that. >> it is really just math. the senate is 51 democrats, give or take a few independents the caucus with them, 49 republicans. in order to get to a majority, republicans will need to win two seats. they already have one in the back in west virginia. that means if they win just one more seat, if they flip just one more, they will have controlled the matter who is president. but it gets better for them because, if donald trump wins

the presidency, we know that a 50/50 senate is broken by the vice president. if the vice president is a republican, that a 5050 senate is a republican senate. right now, if we just look at the map as it is and move west virginia from the democratic column to the republican column, that is a 5050 senate. trump is up in the polls. if the election were held today, it is pretty clear he would have a very good shot at winning. democrats are really on their heels in the senate. it is going to be very

difficult for them to maintain their majority. it is basically going to be impossible for them to maintain a majority if trump wins the presidency this fall. >> inside elections just changed a rating for the arizona senate race. tell us what is going on. >> it is not all bad news for democrats in the senate. i know i sound negative here. it is predominately bad news. there are a few bright spots. one of them is arizona. this was a very complex fluid race when independent senator kirsten cinema was talking about running for reelection as an independent. it is rare we see a three- person senate race in this day and age. when she got out. it became a lot more clear how the race was going to look. the democratic likely nominee, kari lake, the republican, likely republican nominee headed towards a clash this fall. basically, what we look that was ruben has advantages in the phrase. he is a tremendous financial advantage. he has the opportunity to introduce himself to voters in a favorable way whereas kari lake has less money and is deeply unpopular in the state

after her 2022 gubernatorial run. you combine those factors together, and then you look at the posture of national republicans were very excited about montana and ohio and a few other states and who do not want to talk about arizona, were not as convinced that arizona is going to be competitive, and may not put any money towards helping kari lake win that race. all of that points to a picture where democrats are at least slightly favored to hold that see. >> let's talk to callers. michelle is up first, an independent in maryland. >> hello. can you hear me? >> yes. go right ahead. >> i wanted to speak to the maryland politics. my pet peeve when maryland is painted as a democratic state. hogan was very popular. he did win reelection. but maryland had another republican governor in recent years. if i warrants driving -- i can't think of his name, but i would tell you his name.

if you look at the counties in maryland, the only strong democratic county, pg county, predominantly african american, montgomery, and anne arundel and howard county. howard and montgomery counties are not strong democratic counties. every other county is not democratic. that is my you do have this flip-flop. you have hogan, you have the other republican governor who win elections in maryland. it is a misnomer that maryland is a strong democratic state. we have, pg county -- >> michelle. have you decided to vote for larry hogan in november? >> i did vote for larry hogan

previously twice. in november, you know, as an african american woman, angela alsobrooks is the first african american woman we would send to the senate. i will vote for her for that reason. i did like how she ran our county for the most part. she did bring crime down. it was a very difficult time for her as the county executive in the current political environment we are in. yes, i will support angela alsobrooks. >> jacob. >> i think that is a good example why larry hogan is the underdog in this race. you have voters who voted for him twice for governor who are not even, at this early

juncture, talking about voting for him in a senate race. he won over a lot of voters who would not otherwise though for a republican because he was running for governor. it is going to be a different dynamic in the senate. i think the one thing i will say, though, is that montgomery and prince george's, and i would throw baltimore city in there as well, make up the bulwark of the population of the state. these are the most populous areas. as a montgomery county native myself, i think, i would be comfortable calling it a solidly democratic county when we have county elections, it is democrats up and down the board. but you know, i do think that there is a distinction between governor's races and senate races. the other governor that the caller was talking about who served from 2002 to 2006, he lost reelection to martin

o'malley. larry hogan, obviously, but these are the exceptions that prove the rule. it is very difficult for a republican to get elected to any state wide office in maryland, let alone a senate race, which is what has not happened in nearly 4 years. >> let's talk to richard in augusta, georgia. a democrat. >> good morning. my concern is that the democrats in the senate will be very crucial for democrats have control of the senate in order to get, if we need to commit a new supreme court justice. and also, the last time i checked the constitution, it says majority vote rules, give president biden if he wins the election a he gets the filibuster he runs with it. the democrats have to give president biden and he wins the election too a 60 vote majority

in the senate. and that's what we need. and so that we can stop this craziness of those nonbelievers in the 2020 elections. because it was fair and secure. >> all right, richard. ny comment there, jacob? >> the senate is really important. voters understand that. the supreme court confirming nominations of any variety but the supreme court especially is one of the crucial functions of the senate. it's one of the things that they do that the house doesn't get to do. it's especially important to them. democrats are staring down the barrel of a -- the most conservative supreme court in generations and one that looks likely to persist for a generation. especially if trump wins the presidency. if trump wins the presidency and he has a republican senate, there is ample reason to believe that the older conservative justices on the

court. justice clarence thomas, samuel alito might decide to call it quits and be replaced by a younger justice in their 40s or 50s who could conceivably serve for another 30 or 40 years. cementing that 6-3 conservative majority on the court. if democrats are able to win the presidency and hold the senate, i think there would be tremendous pressure on justice sonia sotomayor to step down. but there would also be a lot of interest, of course, if either justice thomas or justice alito left the court on a democratic senate as well. that would be an opportunity for democrats to transform the court and try and claw back a little bit of the territory that they've lost over the last couple decades. >> and you alluded to these races briefly that's montana and ohio. talk about those because you're

calling those tossups. >> these are the entire story when it comes to control of the majority. john tester. sherrod brown. those two guys win, then democrats have a shot at keeping the senate. if they lose there is no path. they're both running in states that trump carried in it 2020. and will carry again in 2024. that means nave got to one over trump voters to their side. we've had 70 some odd senate races concurrent with presidential races other the last two cycles. of those 70 just one has gone the opposite direction of the presidential race. that is only one senate candidate from the republican party has won their state while the democrat was winning at the presidential level.

that was susan collins in maine in 2020. >> so how are these two still tossups? this seems like it's pretty bad for the democrats. >> it's not a great spot for them to be in. they've got some things going for them. they have incumbent strengths. jon tester is popular. he has an appeal in montana that has persisted even as the state has become significantly more republican. talk about a purple state, montana used to be a true purple state. in the 18 years since tester was elected, the state has really become a republican stronghold. but he is still popular. he has an appeal as a farmer, the way he looks, the way he talks. it connects with voters. his republican opponent is relatively untested. he's a first time candidate. navy seal veteran. very wealthy. runs a business. he has made some stumbles that we see in first time campaigns. he has given democrats an opportunity to litigate aspects

of his military record, of his business record. and he, you know, perhaps most crucially he's not a montana native. he only moved to the state in the last decade. that is a strategy tester has used successfully in previous runs painting his opponents as interlopers or out of staters. so i think democrats have a tough challenge there. they've got an opening in ohio it's a similar story. sherrod brown is a strong incumbent. very good fundraisers. he's got an appeal among the working class voters in eastern ohio that have shifted away from democrats over the last decade or so. and his opponent bernie marino, another relatively new political figure ran for senate last cycle, lost the primary and is back this time. has some stuff in his background democrats are going to litigate as well. candidate quality and local issues argument for democrats. republicans want a nationalize both of these races. democrats want to keep them as

small as possible. whoever wins will go a long way. >> let's talk to mary in potomac, maryland. independent. hi, mary. >> caller: hello. the reason i'm calling is to just say anybody voting for a republican is voting against their best interest. republicans are threatening social security and medicare. which is going to affect millions of people, including us who are seniors and who have been getting social security and dependent upon social security for paying our bills and taxes and everything. also i can't imagine anybody in their right mind knowing what trump is like. trump is only for trump.

nothing, nobody is more important than trump. he works only for what is beneficial to him. >> so mary, getting back to the senate race, are you going to be voting for miss alsobrooks? >> no. voting for trone. >> you voted for trone last night. you know he lost; right? >> no, i don't know he lost. >> yeah. sorry, mary. >> yeah. >> angela alsobrooks won so she's going to be going against former governor larry hogan. >> no, then, i used to be a republican then i moved because i realized republicans do nothing but interfere. they don't care for the middle class. all they want to do is endorse everything trump does and by

that i mean he wants to give the biggest tax breaks to the richest. >> okay, mary. let's get a response. >> maryland's gotten more democratic. i don't think mary's alone in being a former republican who trump turned into someone who is going to vote in democratic primary and probably vote for a democrat in a general election. joe biden won a larger victory in american than i believe any democratic president since lyndon johnson in 1964 in that landslide victory. he won maryland by as big a margin as trump won idaho. these are big numbers we're talking about and it's because maryland of all states is uniquely anti-trump and is well positioned for the emerging democratic coalition. so, again, not to hammer the point home too much, but larry hogan has an uphill climb in this fight in the fall. >> >> margaret in wyoming.

independent. good morning, margaret. >> . >> caller: i do have a question for mr. rubashkin. i would like to know, okay, all right. what's going on in america the open immigration, the open border and the heavy deficits that the united states is incurring under the biden regime. i would like to know if that's having any effect on the voting that's going to take place in maryland. or anywhere else in the country that would be turning away from the ideological agenda of the democratic party more towards the center. that's my question. >> what do you think of those issues? the border, the deficits. >> yeah, so we've seen immigration emerge as one of if not the top issues for

republicans this election cycle. 2022 was about the economy. cost of living. 2024, republicans really want it to be about the border and immigration policy. not just in arizona, not just in texas. but in montana their number one issue against jon test e the border. in ohio they're going to talk about the border, fentanyl and drug trafficking. in maryland which is not a southern border state. larry hogan when he needed to win votes in the republican primary because, you know, he's got some issues with republicans because he's a little bit more moderate. when he had to win over republican voters in the primary he went down to the border and he ran ads talking about securing the border. that's how he was appealing to republicans in maryland. this is absolutely going to be a top issue this fall. republicans are going to talk

about it nonstop. it's an open question whether it'll be enough to get them across the finish line. democrats have some issues going for them as well. absolutely i think that the border conversation is going to be a big ticket item in all of these senate races in a couple months. >> jacob rubashkin, deputy editor of inside elections. you can find their news letter at insideelections.com. thanks so much for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> today a hearing on roadway safety including the particular risk to pedestrians and cyclists with testimony from transportation policy advocates and local officials. before a senate commerce, science and transportation subcommittee. live at 2:30 p.m. eastern on cspan 3, cspan now and online.

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