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tv   Washington Journal David Wasserman  CSPAN  November 1, 2023 8:11pm-8:57pm EDT

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journal," and find scheduling information for c-span radio. plus, a variety of compelling podcasts. c-span now is available at the apple store and google play. downloaded for free today. c-span now, your front row seat to washington, anytime, anywhere. >> our first guest, david, serves as health senior editor here to talk about the 2024 election and in light of a new house, thank you for coming on. what are the challenges he is facing now in -- concerning the republicans and democrats he serves over. guest: he is facing challenges legislatively and politically. it represents a shift for house republicans and although democrats are doing that he's in ardent opponent of same-sex
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marriage, that he worked behind the scenes to provide the legal rationale returning the 2020 election for house republicans it still could be difficult for democrats to make it central for the 2024 election given the noise of the presidential cycle, the fact you will have trumps legal problems in the news. all 18 republicans who represent districts of joe biden carried in 2020 voted for him for speaker so democrats will try and use that narrative to make the case to offer proof to voters that these republicans are not the moderates they've made themselves out to be. democrats only need to pick up five seats to win the house majority back in 2024. the house majority hasn't flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952 considering there are those 18 republicans in biden won district and only five democrats in trump won district
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there are competitive seats for them to get there. host: one of the things the house speaker does is raise money in those races. guest: mike johnson is not accustomed to the political legwork of being a top leader or speaker for his party. johnson came to congress in 2016 he's never had to break a reelection sweat, he has a pretty mild demeanor compared to some members of the freedom caucus and some past republican leaders. kevin mccarthy was arguably the most effective fundraiser and recruiter for house republicans in history. he raised him was $260 million for their top super pac which raised and spent money on behalf of republican candidates to win back the house and the midterm. kevin mccarthy raise $70 million across as many so far in 2023
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that johnson raised for his own political committee. now he has decided to keep on the same political team in place at the congressional leadership fund, to reassure donors and republican candidates that there will be continuity. the jury is out on whether he can really step into those shoes that mccarthy has left behind. host: you talk about the speaker himself and how hobie used by democrats, there is a group called courage for america who've already released a video. we will show folks the added home. [video clip] >> efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. >> he voted to decertify absolutely. >> to help lead the charge to
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overturn the results of the 2020 election. >> think it's ok for him or any speaker candidate to vote to decertify the last election. >> i don't think it's ok. i think it's a mistake. ♪ host: that is targeted to the congressional district of george santos. other than that, a sign of things to come. guest: you will see democrats try to tie republicans who are generally moderate to speaker johnson, keep in mind johnson will be navigating the house with the same senate majority the mccarthy did so whether it's on a continued resolution or trying to balance funding for
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the border and aid to israel and ukraine or navigating possible expulsion vote of congressman santos on long island which all five other republicans from that -- competitive district in that state have called for his removal from congress and yet that would cost republicans a vote in a very narrowly divided house. how does johnson navigate these issues, that is going to be a huge test for him and republicans in the next five to six months. host: our guest is with us so if you have questions about speaker johnson, what faces republicans in the 20 -- 2024 race. 202-748-8001 for republicans. 202-748-8000 for democrats. independents, 202-748-8002.
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you can also text us at 202-748-8003. one of the first things this week will be aid to israel. what is the strategy and message there? guest: speaker johnson has to balance the demands of the freedom caucus to defund the irs , they want a lot for the border and skeptical of providing the aid to ukraine with the wishes of those republicans who are open and vulnerable seats. in particular you have 11 republicans in new york and california who represent biden districts. some of those blocked jim jordan from becoming speaker. still dealing with a rules package that has a one-vote
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threshold to vacate. it hasn't really changed from her mccarthy was and that's republicans are so desperate to have some breathing room they can convince swing voters should not be trusted with the keys to power as they were in the last month. host: is there any indication the speaker will support changes to that so he won't see the same thing that happened to kevin mccarthy. guest: he would certainly like that but this is internal republican conference policy. host: let's take some calls. you are on with dave wasserman. caller: good morning. how is everyone. i wanted to call and talk about -- can you hear me? host: you are on, go ahead.
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caller: i'm just in a talk about mike johnson and him saying he was there because god blessed him to be in that position. we have no state religion and also the puritans were separatist and did not want organized religion. we are -- the house is the people's house. i really like people of faith and all of their morality. another thing i want to say about the gop is the platform is there is no platform. it seems like they choose to have imaginary anxiety about things other than looking at reality, talking about things like abortion.
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men are never going to face that, they are not in the arena that women are. host: thank you. going back to her first point as part of the religion aspect. mike johnson one of the first things he did was appear the republican jewish coalition conference. what's the message there from those? >> speaker johnson is a product of the bible belt. he is an ally of israel and made clear that standing with israel is his first priority is incoming speaker. for years democrats were able to win over a wide swath of secular independent blue-collar voters by purpura -- pretraining republicans as bible thumpers looking to impose their moral values. democrats have struggled to make headway against trump with those
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voters because he doesn't represent that christian conservative wing. he came in as a twice divorced casino mogul. mike johnson is more of a standard issue christian conservative who is open about his faith and its role in his political position. so yes it is right for demo -- riep for democratic attack. at the same time johnson is so anonymous with the voters still that it could be difficult to make him a central issue. host: from virginia, independent line, dave. hello. caller: thank you for c-span. i wonder how our current house of representatives -- close it is to what our founding fathers envisioned with all the corruption and money how money representatives actually represent us. the speaker has his own ax to grind, he's using the bible to his advantage but purporting to
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be a purist or center guy. how close is the way we are working to what our founding fathers originally envisioned and was the speaker there from the beginning of the house of representatives or was that an added position? guest: the speaker has been there. i would say republicans are frustrated with what's transpired in the last month they don't believe 3.6% of their own conference should have been able to overthrow speaker mccarthy. in some sense the house really does -- it really is closest to the will of the american voter because the house map is very narrowly defined and republicans have a little bit of a structural advantage in the senate and electoral college where the tipping point states
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are a few points to the right of the nation. we see this area of competitive contest for control. we don't have as many truly competitive issues. when we, with our ratings we will have 24 out of 435 districts we see as pop-ups for 2024. a very narrow battlefield, pumping a lot of money into that narrow band of races. it will come down to three factors. how redistricting fights play out, how effective both parties are at recruiting quality candidates. one of the ironies is republicans are on a strong streak when mccarthy was deposed as speaker and he had personally cajoled a lot of those candidates into races. people like austin in northern maine, or a milk trucker in gary
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indiana or a retired new york cop in new york's 18th district. democrats have mostly been getting behind candidates who ran last cycle and fell just short. and repeat candidates with a mixed track record. then the house will come down to the top of the ticket. a presidential like turnout we will likely see 160 million voters turn out rather than 112 million who turned out in the midterms. that added group of voters, how do they fall when it comes to the down ballot and there is reason to believe in states like new york and california that will be more diverse, help the democrats in key races but it is also skewed heavily noncollege and white or states like pennsylvania to michigan and ohio that add on electorate could be more pro-trump and help
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republicans. host: when it comes to next elections could be a kingmaker. guest: we've got all these districting -- redistricting fights unfolding out of the suppose it end of the redistricting cycle. as my colleague has said we used to redistrict every 10 years now we redistrict it seems every 10 minutes. in north carolina this past week republicans redrew the map for a brutal gerrymander. that state had a court imposed mapping 2022 but the state supreme court changed, republicans took control which led the way for the republican legislature to draw a new map that basically purges three or four democrats from the delegation and grabs an extra
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three or four seats for republicans. democrats are arguing new york state should do the same thing. democrats are suing to invalidate the court drawn map put into place by state judges in new york and will get a ruling from new york's top court in december as to whether that proposition. democrats already have a number of takeover opportunities in the state. they are bullish on their chances of taking over george santos' eat whether that's a special election or he is replaced in the general. they also have opportunities in the fourth district, several district in the hudson valley as well as the syracuse district but if they are able to redraw those in a way that minimizes republican chances of holding onto them we could be talking about speaker jeffries and 2025. host: let's hear from philadelphia.
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the democrats line. go ahead. caller: thanks for taking my call. i live in the first congressional district of pennsylvania. i'm a democrat and a never trump are. my congressman is fitzpatrick who is one of those 18 republicans in a blue district and i voted for him 2018, 2020, 2022 even though the top of those ballots i voted democrat spread and probably will vote for him next year in 2024 even though he voted for johnson. i get it, we needed a speaker but he voted against jordan. plus he is great on constituent services. i think a lot of those 18 republicans in the democratic districts i think a lot of them are going to keep their seats. thank you. guest: this voter is a perfect
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illustration of why some districts flip their tickets and there aren't very many of them, there are 23 district that have voted for opposite candidates for president and house in 2020 and yet the parochial political culture of bucks county pennsylvania, a place where republicans still have a stronger brand locally then trump has in the county explains why republicans just narrowly have this house majority. republicans are in good shape to defend their seats because brian fitzpatrick is able to represent the partisan balance of the district effectively. he's going to pitch his vote for mike johnson as saying we needed to simply reopen the house. i was sick of the house being locked down. that is his counter to the argument that he supported an
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extremist. but there are other republicans who will be in tougher shape who don't have as well established a brand as fitzpatrick. he's been in office for more than a decade. so you got mike garcia in california's 27th district. a lot of freshmen in new york like mike waller in the 17th district and anthony d esposito on long island who represents a district biden won by 14 points. all of those are republicans are more vulnerable to the attacks that they campaigned one way in the midterms and voted differently. host: by last analysis there were 22 tossup seats now you're saying there is 24. who are the two additional? guest: this week we are making a couple of ratings changes. in california's 22nd district, one of the only surviving --
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you seen a couple of democrats enter that contest. the assemblyman from bakersfield fell short by 3.5 points and also the center to represent a district that overlaps the congressional district. we feel that she will have another -- he will have another tough race on his hands. it's a sign here's watching over his right shoulder because you must fell to defeat to a pro-trump activist in the 2022 primary that's running again as well. the other seat that has taken the national spotlight in the last week is maine's second congressional district. one of those five democrats and a trump seat, a marine corps veteran, has long been able to peel off a number of trump
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voters because he doesn't come across as a typical democrat. he has been pro-gun, more moderate on cultural issues. in the wake of the tragic rampage in his hometown of lewiston he emotionally reversed his opposition to an assault weapons ban and although it is still very recent this wound and it will take time to sort out how this plays politically it is a risk considering this district has traditionally been very supportive of the second amendment and very pro-gun. so republicans who just got into this race, 29-year-old nascar driver, austin terrio has already criticized him for trying to politicize the issue. there are other republicans running as well. it's also an open question as to whether the republican will have party support, mccarthy had
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promised in order to entice terrio and other candidates to get into the race. host: this is john, massachusetts, independent line. caller: i'd like to talk about how president trump was resisted for four years by the congress. they impeached him during a covid emergency and c-span covered that for the whole time but they don't want to talk about biden's impeachment inquiry. also i'd like to talk about how the senate won't bring up any bills now and before congress wouldn't bring up any bills when nancy was in charge and nobody had a problem with that. the change the rules so she wouldn't get voted out, but rules such as congress being able to use insider trading for her husband so they could all get rich and everyone wanted that. she wouldn't bring it up. not to mention blue cities,
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crime is worse in red cities -- host: do you have a question about how selections and how they could be impacted lee's. caller: i'd like to talk about -- the democrats when they talk about gerrymandering what about california and michigan. i love getting half a story. why do you try covering the other side. guest: one of the problems for democrats is a number of states that are heavily blue in the presidential election employed nonpartisan or bipartisan distress shaking commissions. in california democrats were not able to gerrymander the 52 district in the state in their favor because california employees a citizen driven commission that drew the lines in a more neutral manner which led to a number of competitive seats. that's why we still have all these competitive races in california. michigan also uses a citizen
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commission, they used it for the first time in 2021. and then in new york the gerrymander the democrats in albany tried to pass was struck down by the state's top court. now that's being re-litigated over again. republicans have had an advantage to manipulate the boundary in their favors in more states that they control. texas is the biggest one. currently republicans have a 25-13 seat advantage in the state of texas. republicans are going to be going for an 11-3 advantage in north carolina, a state currently divided 7-7. even if both parties engage in gerrymandering, certainly democrats in illinois and oregon, republicans have been more resistant to reforms in
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their states and as a result have more power to manipulate the boundaries in their favor. one other extreme on redistricting we are watching is the racial redistricting litigation underway. in june the supreme court in the allen v milligan case cleared the way for an additional lack majority seat alabama. given the houses so close, every change to a boundary, every state -- seat with a result of litigation feels existential. democrats are hoping, civil rights groups are hoping they see additional black majority seats in louisiana and georgia in the wake of that decision. both states where federal courts invalidated the map but republicans are trying to delay the remedial process past the election. there's also questions in florida where a state judge has invalidated a portion of republicans congressional map
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for basically demolishing a black opportunity district that went from tallahassee to jacksonville. that will go up to the supreme court but that could also be an additional seat for democrats. all these cases matter a lot. host: representative debbie lesko announced she won't run for reelection, a democrat from oregon announced the same. are these a one-off trend with what's been happening over the last couple weeks? guest: i'm surprised we haven't seen more retirements so far. traditionally thanksgiving and christmas are opportunities for members of congress to go back and reevaluate whether they want to run for reelection. we have a number of open seats so far in either side driven by decisions to run for statewide office. the only competitive open seats on our board are those held by katie porter in orange county,
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california who's leaving her seat to run for senate as well as the democrat represent lansing michigan. that's the most competitive open seat at this time. we are waiting to see whether george santos in new york either resigns as part of a plea deal or is expelled which would lead to a special election in early 2024. there's a big fork in the road for kevin mccarthy who is no longer speaker has to decide by december 8 which is california's filing deadline. if he were to bow out of the house than that would be a loss for republicans political operation. host: another person on the tossup list was lauren boebert of colorado. tell us about why this is a tossup. guest: this will be one of the highest spending races in the country. lauren boebert has no one to blame for -- but herself or her
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political problems. the district voted for donald trump by eight points but boebert, between some of her past history including her rap sheet, some of her very outspoken statements and behavior including recently being asked to leave a theater performance in denver where she was vaping in the theater. these are some of the reasons why she is in political peril in a district that should be relatively safe. a former securities trader in new york, when you think -- when you see democrat from these resort towns running in western colorado because 70 or 80% of voters in the district are from ranching oil and gas towns or in
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the case of pueblo, a town that is steel producing. they kind of resent these elite liberals as republicans would frame them to be yet he came within 546 votes of beating lauren boebert. he is sitting on $4.2 million of cash on hand compared to 1.4 million for her. the question really is how much our national republicans willing to come in and invest to bail her out. they didn't think the race was close last cycle and she nearly lost. host: david wasserman joining us for this conversation. roy is an republican -- is in north carolina, republican line. caller: i am very excited about mike johnson being voted in. he loves america, he loves god,
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he loves the constitution, he loves freedom, liberty and respect. where america came from and where it is today and the men and women who helped found it. i just wanted to ask you guys one thing. either one of you democrats can answer. are there any republican reporters in washington dc? host: we are not can it classify political parties but you can respond to anything else. guest: i would say there is a conservative media ecosystem in d.c. and also a left-leaning media ecosystem. increasingly voters are choosing to tune into news that reinforces their pre-existing viewpoints. that's one of the reasons why we see this narrowband of truly persuadable voters that could go either way. they are still the ones that
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determine outcomes. host: in a couple of weeks, virginia will hold elections. is there a sense of bellwether to the -- to what happens in virginia and what could play out in 2024? guest: virginia has high stake races for both chambers of its general assembly. it is running these elections under new lines because of redistricting and that has led to a lot of shakeups where you have incumbents who were introducing themselves to a bigger group of new voters. some of the most competitive races will be in loudoun county, virginia in the outskirts of richmond and virginia beach. governor glenn youngkin, a republican, has tried to stake a lot of these races on his support for a week abortion ban even in districts that joe biden carried in 2020 you see
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republicans in the richmond suburbs or juan pablo so gora in a county with a chance flipping the senator republican control. youngkin badly wants the trifecta to work with so he can get legislation through richmond. i tend to think democrats are slightly favored in both chambers. we have seen a pattern the last couple of years, democrats performing well in special elections for state legislative offices. they are doing well in low turnout scenarios. what i think is happening in the wake of the dobbs decision, democrats have benefited among the highest engaged voters for the most reliable, biden's problem has been more with peripheral voters that are less engaged and particularly in
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virginia which has a large base of college educated voters. they are likely to play an outside role in the low turnout contest. host: sean is in maryland, independent line. caller: at first i thought mike johnson would unify the republican party and work with the president and democrats to address the issues but then when he supported the impeachment inquiry, i was very disappointed. the way things are pointing the democrats would take the house and keep the senate and white house. republicans don't really understand they are still not getting it that they are ruining their own party by following trump. that's all i have to say, thank you. host: -- guest: the caller did raise the impeachment inquiry that house republicans are pursuing.
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it's another fork in the road for the new speaker. most trope -- pro-trump republicans would like to neutralize problems by putting a spotlight on the biden administration. if johnson put safe vote to the floor on articles of impeachment in six months or a year, that does put a number of republicans from swing district in a bit of a bind. even though joe biden's approval rating is in the low 40's, has not rebounded at all from its depths. voters also don't want to go through another impeachment saga and don't really see a clear rationale for why republicans would impeach biden when the real legal hurdles are ones that hunter biden is facing in delaware right now.
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polling on impeachment is similar to biden's favorability. it's a perilous vote for a number of those republicans. host: to show folks at home it was the house speaker suggesting hunter biden might be subpoenaed as part of that impeachment inquiry. caller: good morning. you can elect a president, reelect a president, you can remove the president but there's no constitutional provision for overthrowing the vote of 85 million people. so had the republicans been successful, please explain to me what type of government we would have and tell the guy in north carolina the same thing. what kind of government we would have.
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a government that vladimir putin could run. guest: the effort in 2020 on the part of republicans to not certify or invalidate votes from arizona and pennsylvania was unprecedented in scale. the series -- the theories former president trump advanced were pretty universally rejected by judges that he himself had appointed. even though there were broad changes to voting modes and participation because of the pandemic, the theories that republicans advance that year were in most cases so preposterous there was only one possible explanation and that was they did not like the results of the election. there was about one third of their publican party in the
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house that rejected trump's argument and voted to certify those states. even though our system bent it did not break. host: this week it's being reported rashida tlaib of michigan and marjorie taylor greene will make -- votes. can you explain what that means. guest: if a majority of the house believes a member has said or done brings ill repute to the house they can vote to censure a member. in this case, congresswoman tlaib is under fire from her colleagues for comments regarding the war in israel. and gaza that many republicans believe, and some democrats believe are anti-semitic.
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at the end of the day, most democrats are not where the squad is when it comes to calls for a cease-fire. what will be interesting to see the longer the conflict drags on and the more aid that is under consideration for israel, how big of a fracture do you see in the democratic party on this issue and how much support could the president potentially lose on his left among voters, young voters who are more sympathetic to the plight of palestinians in gaza. host: curtis is in florida, independent line. caller: thanks for taking my call. my question, they talk about the pro-trump what are they going to do to protect those minorities
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like burnell, a roster faria in in milwaukee who walked up and down the streets with a sign saying vote trump 2020 and was shot to death. whatever did happen to him and what was the outcome of all that. just out of curiosity, thank you. guest: i'm unfamiliar with the incident. host: let's go to new york, this is carol, the democrats line. caller: currently in the 19th congressional district formally ended 22nd congressional district. my question is about mark molinaro and how he will fare in the redistricting and also how he would fare in the general election if he faced a candidate like the former candidate, it
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was a very close race. i thought i would ask if you had any hints as to what that brings to us. guest: the caller is from one of the redder counties in this court drawn district which is from a liberal bastion to the hudson valley and some of the more liberal artsy towns. this is one of the very few districts on our list. mark molinaro was a traditional pro federal republican talking about what he's brought to the district rather than culture wars. molinaro faces a rematch against the democratic attorney from ithaca named josh riley.
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he raised a lot of money in 2022 and 2024 and this is another contest where redistricting, the specter of democrats redrawing the map cast some uncertainty over the race. if democrats have the opportunity to redraw maybe they would add the city of utica to it, encourage some of the more republican areas in the southern tier of new york and that could make the seat six or seven points bluer and make up some of the deficit riley fell short in 2022. this really highlights the high-stakes of where the boundaries fall. host: this is conrad in tampa, florida. democrats line. caller: good morning. i have a theory, i hope i phrase it right. the redistricting is an issue
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that really involves a lot of time and money. i would like to see where we utilize the district that the zip codes define. i hope you could use the zip codes because they are right next to each other like here in tampa start with the district at 33601 and then add the district 33602 until you fulfilled the number you need for whatever district you are looking at. does that make any sense to you? guest: that is the first time i have heard that idea. i'm not sure it would be easy to adopt because i don't imagine zip codes neatly align with the required number of residents for congressional district, all districts must be of equal population, but most of the redistricting reform proposals
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that have received consideration highlight the need for access to preserve communities of interest. that is a flexible definition that can be very subjective. there are only a couple of spaces that include competitiveness in their criteria for redrawing maps. california for example their commission is primitive from taking political data for incumbent residency into account whatsoever. colorado and arizona, there redistricting reform stipulates districts should be more competitive and considering the residential sorting of the country we've seen over the last half-century where we have more heavily blue and red areas, it does require perhaps some affirmative action to draw districts that are evenly divided that give most voters a
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real choice. part of the reason you see some polarization in the house is in the overwhelming number of districts, the primary election is the only race that matters. so we will be watching whether some of the members with more moderate voting records are migrating from their left or right. host: our guest services -- >>
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and 18 ukraine and israel, with illinois congresswoman. florida republican congressman, south carolina republican congressman, and new mexico democratic congressman. c-span's "washington journal," join in the conversation live at 7:00 eastern thursday morning on c-span, she's fun -- c-span now and c-span.org. >> democratic representative jared golden of maine second congressional district let a moment of silence for the victims of the lewiston mass shooting. 18 people were killed on more than one dozen others injured. the shooting is the deadliest mask shooting in the u.s. this year. >> the gentleman is recognized. >> thank you. last wednesday night, a terrible tragedy befell my hometown of lewiston. the following is a reading from the daily devotional -- >> the gentleman will sus

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