>> washington journal starts now. host: house speaker mike johnson led 60 of his gop colonies to the southern border yesterday to

pressure the biden administration and democrats to agreed to more strict security and immigration policy. republicans also announced they would begin impeachment hearings against alejandro mayorkas for his handling of the border. this morning, we will get your take. here is how people divide the line. if you oppose coming your line this morning is (202) 748-8001. if you agree, the line is (202) 748-8000. residence can reach us at (202) 748-8002. you can always text us on (202) 748-8003. where you can contact us on social media.

the speaker held a news conference and here is what he had to say about president biden and his administration. [video clip] >> it is an unmitigated disaster and catastrophe. it is a disaster of the president's own design. about an hour ago we had lunch and there are sheriff's -- a former bridge -- border patrol agents said in his estimation it took less than six months for the biden administration to dismantle 100 years of progress that the u.s. border patrol had achieved. some of the first actions joe biden took when he rolled into the oval that he will back

border security measures that were put in place by the trump administration. it was on his very first day in office that president biden stopped construction of the southern border wall. it was estimated on our twirling moment ago that if the administration we dated the policy, it could stem the flow by about 70% or more, but he refuses to do it. since the time he took office, the administration has done next to nothing to protect the border, but we have seen with our own eyes that they have open the border wide to the whole world. it is estimated that nearly 170 countries have people flowing across our borders. some of them are from patients that have high numbers of concentration. these are not people who are fleeing and looking for asylum, in fear for their lives from their home countries. we have hardened criminals coming across those borders.

rather than incentivizing people to come, the president needs to deter people from coming over. rather than discussing amnesty with mexico, this administration should reinstate the policy rather than expanding parole authority to an unprecedented scale. the president should stop catch and release. the president can and should act now. this does not require legislation, it requires leadership. despite the white house's claim, he has all the authority he needs right now to stop this madness, but the messages policies have sent is the opposite of that and quite clear. they have laid out in welcome that to smugglers and cartels. he is responsible to the great threat to international security and our nation's sovereign.

host: speaker mike johnson at the boarding yesterday. the white house was asked if the president believed there needed to be changes to immigration policy. here is how his spokesperson responded. [video clip] >> the president said he needed more money to protect the border. does he think it is a lack of funding that has led to the current tuition at the border? >> there is a reason we step back. he put border security in there because he believes in order to get the work done at the border, we need more resources. we need more resources to get this done and we need technology at the border to deal with what is going on. last may, the republicans in the

house voted to get mid of 2000 border patrol agents. that is their focus. that is not helpful. we need the resources to do the work and they keep adding in the way of doing the work, to deal with what we are seeing at the border. they are obstructing. that is what they are doing right now. >> i will remind you on the first day of his administration, he put forth a comprehensive immigration policy legislation. he presented that the congress because he understands that the system has been broken for decades. obviously, we need to change policy and work on policy to deal with a broken system. that is what you have been seeing.

they are trying to deal with the border situation. it has been a policy situation. host: discussing the biden administration's approach to the southern border. we are asking you this morning whether you support or oppose the president's efforts. you heard the white house press secretary there talking about resources and part of the new boushey asians of ukraine funding is including more changes to immigration policy but also the biden administration proposing $14 billion for border security. take a look at the numbers. they report that the budget for the customs andorder protection agency was 19oi 8

billion. 16.4 billion was proposed. presenbiden the next year pros another billion-dollar cut for the agency in 2023. congress disagreed. biden proposed another billion dollar cut and now he wants $14 billion in emergency boarding -- border funding, all that tied up in this debate on capitol hill over ukraine funding, aid for israel and taiwan. you just heard from the speakers saying, we are not going to greece anymore funding for ukraine or otherwise, unless there are stricter immigration policies.

it is your turn to tell the lawmakers and white house what you think should happen. john new york, you oppose what the president is doing. tell us why. caller: good morning, greta. when texas said they wanted -- the white house is going to the -- they are going -- they said that the executive branch, according to the constitution -- they had the authority. that is their responsibility to protect the borders and the

sovereignty of our country. what is happening now, the executive branch is -- that is my opinion. i went to a very good catholic school. he learn that the executive branch has certain responsibilities, that congress has certain responsibilities and then the judicial branch has their responsibility and the congress writes the laws. laws are in place that the executive branch is responsible for enforcing them. we have 700,000 people coming in , and one month.

imagine that. i think the american people need to realize how many people. we have to protect our sovereignty. we needs a protect the borders and the solvency of our country. host: do you think that the republicans are justified in pursuing impeachment of the homeland security secretary? caller: please. you have to be kidding me. are you blind? when are you going to show tapes of the border? you know like? the republicans announced they would go down there and there were very few people coming

across the segment, where they come across the border. they were totally prepared for. the biden administration, the executive administration went down -- shut down. nobody is coming across the border. there is nobody here. host: in the new york times, they wrote about house speaker being there. they said as the gop lawmakers flocked, the backup was mostly empty and serene while a handful of migrants could be seen crossing the rio grande. a trickle, they write, compared to what unfolds there on a typical day. tony gonzales hosted the event and represents the border districts as it may have to do with the fact that the speaker and members showed up here.

he suggested that cartels to smuggle migrants intentionally slowed down network to undercut the message. mexico has allegedly done more to stop the flow of immigrants, including same-day flights back to venezuela and holding people that they detained in mexico rather than allowing the influx that we have seen. that reporting, juxtaposed radio. glenn in illinois. good morning. caller: good morning. i am definitely with biden on this. the speaker around the house down there is nothing but a

snake. he wants to turn everybody loose that was in the capital. he turned the republicans loose from the house three weeks ago thursday. thursday and friday for two hours. arguing in the house about what kind of message we want to send to the schools -- what kind of milk we want to send to the schools. chocolate or whole milk? it was ridiculous. i cannot watch it. i watched for two hours on end off, and that is all they did before they cut off. host: good morning, al.

caller: you cannot agree with this policy. you have to be mentally ill. this is crazy. everyone born in this country is american. they let this by and the president, they did it intentionally. i do not even have a college education and i can tell. 100,000 kids, who knows how many children are missing. all the people dying across the border and people say it is all signed to come over here. all these people dying, drugs, the cartel running everything -- that lady is such a disgrace. she has the audacity to tell you my on the tv.

i listen to her and coming out of her mouth. what a disgrace. these people should be thrown off of tv. i'm still upset. my grandparents came here legally from italy. they did not get any money when they came here. they had no place to live. this is killing our economy. all this debt. i have not seen anything like it. it is amazing. all of this happened and it gets me sick to my stomach. i always change the channel. i cannot watch it. host: this is part of the republican's case, that voters should be voting for their party, including their

presidential candidate, whoever it and that being. this is from the washington times. biden focused on trump. trump claims border on biden. the border and crime are the themes that republicans are hitting hard and in turn, democrats are talking about democracy in their effort for the house to take back the majority there. they would like to keep the majority and president biden is seeking a second term. we are asking you to tell us your thoughts, whether you support or oppose the policies. we will turn to you next. in nebraska. good morning. caller: good morning. there are 70 things to say.

biden is following the law. right now, the only way people can come in our asylum or unification. like that guy who said his family came from italy? they got off the boat at ellis island and all they had to do was -- if they were ok, they were automatic citizen, but these people have to leave to have their asylum hearing. so it is just clogging up the system. if we had a legal avenue for these people -- there aren't 9 million jobs not being filled right now. if they would come here, we

would know who they are and they would be supporting the revenue of our country and also, we need people to do that. that would be the best solution. what's going on there now is a horrible example for the rest of the world. did you see all that barbed wire on the border? do you see that wall? what countries do that? we're supposed to be a positive leader for freedom. if our ancestors saw how we are treating immigrant now, they

would roll in their graves. host: a couple headlines have been referenced by our viewer is this morning. striking down state law on immigrant rest. arguing that a new law allowing the states to arrest reports -- port migrants is an unconstitutional violation. what do you think of the move on that? they are moving forward with impeachment hearings again from usa today, the proceedings will begin january 10, but the security committee is holding the first impeachment hearing according to committee

spokesman. look for our coverage on c-span.org and you can also watch on our free mobile app. on the numbers of crossings, here is from the washington times. the greatest domestic threat. in december 2020, the last full month under trump but from march 2021 to november 2023, the latest month available, they averaged 180,000 arrests. that works out to nearly 6 million over the 33 months. add unauthorized immigrants and many of them were invited to

come through the parole policy. that is the washington times reporting. larry, hello. good morning. caller: how are you doing this morning? i hope you give me the opportunity to speak, just like those who oppose the president. host: we are waiting on you. go ahead. caller: to the people out here listening, the congress is in charge of the purse and they control the money. when president biden had an opposition, he presented to congress and they cut it down. they had like 13 billion or something like that that the president was opposing and congress said, no, we are not going to give you anything

unless we get a wall. it was created by donald trump. the people who were going along th donald trump were giving money for this wall. steve bannon was taking his purposes.g it for other when president biden came in, he said he had a deal to stop this and take the money that was used for that wall and use it for the people who were guarding the borderline. that is what the problem is now. it is the congress who has the ability to support this wall and stop these illegal immigrants, along with the policies. they have a policy in place and it has not been changed. impeaching the same guy going along with the laws that

congress has made. it does not make any sense, but i will hang up because you like to hang up on me a lot. thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak. host: ok. well from tulsa, oklahoma. caller: how are you this morning? a lot of people talking. there are just a few things i would lead to share. there are 8 million people, as you just referenced. i have heard seven to 8 million people. since biden took office three years ago. that is too many people coming across the border. the one lady spoke about the border wall and it looks like we are against immigration welcome of the border wall has been there for over a decade. i'm not for the wall but i am

for legal immigration. it is too many people coming across illegally and those are the ones that we have tracked. the world is on fire and it is not going to take too much work for a person with fell thoughts against u.s., somebody from al qaeda or anyone of the number of terrorist organizations to come to the southern border and get across illegally and take root in this country. i do not live in fear. i live in hope. host: d blame the president for this recent influx? caller: you cannot help but to. i am not a trump fan. i did not vote for him first. i never voted for the man and i never will. one policy that he created that

i support is the stay in mexico policy. that works. the years you get before you have to arrive to your court date, then they turn you loose in the country. you asked me a question and i do not know if i support his policies. i just know that there are too many people coming across the border as it is. we are not able to track the people that get away, the people that come across illegally. we do not know who they are. something has to be done and i am not in favor of a wall. i'm not, but the border wall is effective in certain areas. i'm simply ill-informed. maybe you can tell me.

host: the argument you made about the state in mexico policy is one that house american are saying as well. the house speaker said border officials met with and said that 70% of the illegal inflows -- it sent asylum-seekers back across the border till late in mexico for their immigration cases. the program helped to solve the migrant surge by removing the loophole that allowed asylum-seekers to stay in the u.s. while waiting years for their cases to appear before judges. take a look at this chart of immigration over the years. this is from the washington post. illegal crossings at the border rose 1% in november according to

the preliminary enforcement data obtained by the post. this is january 2021 and 2022, 23. from the start of the end of the trump administration to the start of the biden administration, this is what the chart looks like. your thoughts this morning on president biden's handling of the border and his immigration policies. a border resident, welcome to the conversation. caller: i'm going to try to explain what is happening now and what will happen in the future as easy as i can. the cries of the children who have been abused by the priests, the boy scout leaders, the politicians, the epstein's have reached all the way to god. host: we are talking abouter se. rebecca.

seng from the bidenwhat you are administration on the border. the mo caller: good morning. i am from north carolina and i have come face-to-face with illegal immigr can you hear me? ok. whilome face-to-face with some of these people. they do not speak any english. they probably do not have a social security number. when they do g wages, the wages are not enough to support them. and really, it breaks my heart about all these children. how i know all this? because i have had to interview people and sometimes you do not get the person you want, see you get a second person and they do

not show up because they have to get another person. host: why are you interviewing? caller: because i needed help for a family member. i have family over in texas and i am concerned about their welfare. host: joe in washington dc. good morning. caller: good morning. i was debating which call -- which line to call because i feel like i support not taking children away from their families. i believe that is one of the major reasons why illegal immigration numbers were so much lower under the trump administration because the messaging was, if you come to the border, they will take your kids from you. to this day, there are thousands of children unaccounted for. we do not know where they are. i know this because i used to work in a high school that has a

large immigrant population. some of those kids, the last time they saw their mother was 2017. i do not support that. no matter how good it was and keeping people from coming over the border. i do not support a million people coming across the border. it is inhumane. the government -- i hate that we are given this dichotomy to choose between biden, who does not know what to do about the problem and trump, who has no heart and is willing to see families torn apart. cipher getting emotional. but i support the idea. but there are ways to increase

paths to citizenship it has not gone well but i support action over interaction. i support positive action of her inhumane action. host: supporting the administration in some aspects. the new york times this morning, their story on speaker johnson's trip to the border. they lead with this paragraph. house republicans threatened on wednesday to starve the entire federal government of funding if president biden and democrats failed to institute a crackdown at the last mexico border to choke off the flow of migrants streaming into the country. that based on what congressman

andy biggs had to say as part of that delegation of republicans on the border. listen to him and matt rosendale. >> no more money for this bureaucracy until you get these borders under control. we are all committed to that. there is a national security issue that is taking place here on the southern border and that is what it will take to hold this administration accountable. host: all in support of that. they are willing to shut the government down if the biden administration does not shut down the border. tell us what you think about that. who do you support on this? shutting the government down if the administration does not agree to immigration policies?

speaker johnson's said republicans would not support the administration's effort to secure more than 50 billion in assistance for ukraine, less the president raised a security bill passed last spring, calling it what is necessary to fix the problem. it goes on to talk about republicans in the house and the senate who have insisted that sweeping immigration changes must be part of any bill to help ukraine fight off the russian invasion and gop senators blocked $110.5 billion in national security spending. the demands prompted officials, including the homeland security secretary to join bipartisan talks to find an elusive compromise on policies, a reflection of the political pressure democrats face to impose order -- to have order on

the border. there is not happening in congress as the lawmakers return after a holiday break. negotiations over an emergency funding was old, 110.5 billion including money for taiwan, israel and the border. there is also these looming government funding deadlines referenced. there are two deadlines. funding four agencies and another deadline in early february for the rest of the federal government. that is all playing out as lawmakers are set to return next week to washington. jose and tulsa, oklahoma. let's hear from you. caller: good morning to you. what i'm calling about is to support mr. biden asking for money to control the border,

control ukraine and to control israel. but i noticed that republicans are making a grandstand about the border because they are down there talking about it. but they need to get here. they took next week on vacation. they do not want to come in to do their job. they need to do their job so we can be right. host: joe on the border state. good morning to you. caller: good morning. what you are seeing is more of the republican lies. a month ago, they were complaining that the canadian border was wide open. joe biden is doing everything he

can at the border. each year what they are complaining about. i wish you could get the amount that republicans have spent on taxpayers money, making political ads, grant dandy. the pillar of truth in the republican party, who for 45 minutes sat on the floor and lied about everything. so more republican lies. they are electing donald trump, the biggest liar in the world. good luck. america will pull through, just like they did in 2020. host: ok. the former president's opponent in the primary also talking

about border security. ron desantis writing an op-ed in the des moines register saying immigrant are overwhelming us. i will control the border. not in the des moines register, when we are just days out from the first in the nation caucus that will happen mid january. of course, you can tune into our coverage of campaign 2024, leading up to you and the night of the iowa caucus. check out our 2024 campaign website and our coverage thus far of the candidates in these early states of isla, new hampshire and otherwise. larry in louisville, texas. good morning. caller: good morning and thank you for taking my call. i do not oppose or support. what i am tired of are the talking point that those parties

talk about. they had quotas. they allowed a certain amount of people each year. that is what is needed up in the southern and northern borders have a quota, whether its 100,000, 200,000 -- whatever that number may be, that is what u ne to start with. based on the number of judges that you have on the border that can handle that case. three branches of government, order to put a government to work properly, all three branches need to be working properly. congss is not doing jack but utilizing talking points order to get reelected, just like the democrats are using abortion as a talking to get reelected. as a former manager, i would tell my people, do not come to

me with a problem unless you have a solution to the problem, or i will consider it just a lot of noise. thank you again for taking my call, but i really do believe the first thing you need to do is have quotas, just like they did in the early 20th century when people are coming in from germany, italy and france. they only allowed a certain number of people to enter the country. thank you again for having -- thank you again for taking my call. have a beautiful day. host: in other news, the former president asking the supreme court to keep his name on the colorado valley. also appealing in an -- a decision to bar him from that state's valid. the wall street journal this morning, front page, at least 95

killed in iran is the headline. a deadly scene. at least 95 people were killed in explosions near a public ceremony commemorating the death of a senior officer who killed in 2020 by a u.s. air strike during the trump administration. below that caption is this headline claiming -- israel struck and killed one of the key players in hamas, in lebanon tuesday evening. that is the front page of the wall street journal this morning. back to this conversation in massachusetts. good morning to you. john is in a border state as well. to support or oppose the biden administration's policy? caller: i oppose the policy.

the biden administration is not enforcing the law. i thought there was a plan to find out the root cause. i thought they were going to make everybody apply online so that we would not be overwhelmed at the border. why are sanctuary cities complaining? do you think texas is being notified how many people are going to come a? distinction race dates are the ones that draw them in saying what they are going to do. they draw them and saying we have stuff for you. come over here. they are getting $5,000 a month. you know how much i got as a veteran when i needed food stamps? $500 emergency food stamps. that is five times what a veteran guy.

he is not enforcing any of the laws. if he did not sell them by a certain date, they were supposed to be used for the purpose. to try to say that they are doing anything at all is nothing. they fired a bunch of trump judges and now they are complaining that there are not enough judges. all these people -- they are all coming here looking for jobs and a better life, and who can blame them? this is the best country in the world. it's funny that we are doing better on inflation than everybody. i never hear us bragging about that. just how we are beating inflation.

the economy is doing wonderful. thank you, joe biden. host: diane, your turn. caller: thank you for taking this call. i would like to say something to mr. massachusetts. there is an assumption that biden does not have a policy. policies need to congress because they have to be funded and they have had his bill or whatever you call it, his policy to be funded since day one, when they were trying to figure out who was going to bring policies to the floor. that is the job of the speaker of the house, to bring these to the floor, but the speaker of the house is being controlled by these rules they set up at the beginning. a small group of people taking orders from trump, who do not care if they bring the government down. the american people have not been able to see this.

if they were able to see it and debate in an open forum, you could write your congressman, put some pressure on them, organize locally. excuse me. i get emotional, but i truly believe that the group and their republican allies have allowed this to happen so that they would have a very strong case building the other and fear of mexican immigrants, and fear of criminals and all of this angst, so that -- we could have been dealing with this as citizens, but we have not been able to use the system because they do not want the system to succeed. host: all right.

diana's thoughts there. the chairman in the house, congressman greene announced his committee would move forward with an impeachment hearing of the homeland security secretary. he was also at the border. a republican in tennessee along with republicans, here is what he had to say about his committee's efforts. >> the greatest domestic threat to the safety meant -- of the american people as secretary mayorkas. through his policies, he has defied and subverted the laws passed by the u.s. congress. he has defied multiple court orders. he has lied numerous times to the u.s. congress. he has, under oath stated things that were blatantly obviously

incorrect. he has broken his oath to defend this country. even ag garland admitted that the policies of the orchestra are being you -- that the money is being used, putting americans at risk. tens of thousands of young people, trapped in sex slavery. billions of dollars wasted. expanded criminal networks now connected to the drug cartels in mexico throughout our entire country. with the border wide open and a war in israel, hamas can just walk right in. that is the director of the fbi.

he fears for his own agents. it is clear that this is intentional. sec. may work us knows the policy. if the ag knows the policy or the clause, he knows they are the cause and he is doubling down. he is doing this intentionally. despite the catastrophic effect on our country. our committee has finished its five phase investigation and i want to thank the members of the committee for their hard work. you are going to see a lot more coming here soon. host: january 10 is when the first impeachment hearings will take place before that committee. tune in to c-span.org or our free mobile app for coverage. the washington times reporting

and they know that an early vote taken in november and pushed by marjorie taylor greene fell shy of the majority needed. eight republicans joined democrats in opposing the move and the result was that the article was referred to the homeland security committee where they say they are taking up the bipartisan vote to pursue the issue. republicans say they had -- they think they have wrangled enough votes to successfully impeach mayorkas the next time it comes up for a full the. seeing in an interview yesterday, the secretary was asked about this impeachment effort. here is what he had to say. you are so deeply gauged in the border investigations at the senate. does this undercut any possibility of getting a deal on the house floor?

>> i hope not. thank you for having me this morning. yesterday i joined a bipartisan group of senators negotiating a solution to a much played, broken migration system and i was very privileged to participate in that and before i did so, i was hard at work in the office with my colleagues addressing the situation at the border and addressing the many other challenges. after i participated in those negotiations, and providing technical and operational advice to the bipartisan group of senators, never to -- i returned to the office. we have a broken immigration system, the one fact of which everyone agrees. our administration is focused on solutions, and we are pleased to join a bipartisan group of

senators who are similarly focused on solutions. host: this morning on the washington journal, and our first hour we have been getting your thoughts on the biden administration's border and immigration policies. remember, all of you can text us and tell us what you think at (202) 748-8003. just include your first name, city and state. our next caller supporting the president. good morning. caller: thank you. i am tired of it, greta. i'm tired of the conspiracy theories and the lies coming from republicans. when biden was in office as a regular representative in the house, they never did funds.

if you want to get the border under control, then you get more ice down there and you get more border control down there. you get judges who can get these cases in and out and you get more funding. i'm tired of the conspiracy theories. when they start doing their job, then things will get done and under control. it is simple. i do not care what color you are , i do not care what race you are, trump could care less. he does not have a caring bone in his body. he was going to get rid of sentinel. he was going to get it under control, but he did not do one thing.

i am so over it. and green, green has a lot of nerve. republican voters, the biggest thing they are complaining about is the border and they keep typing on it and talking about it because that is the only thing they have to go on and it is ridiculous. we are all being used and abused. regardless of what party, what color, whatever. host: ok. let's hear from somebody who opposes. mansfield, texas. caller: yes, i am a retired military wife. my big brother died of fentanyl. what i do not like is that you go to the va hospital and you see all the people there.

i really feel like i want to help them, but let's fix the problem here first because my husband coming to this day cannot do anything for himself. he has ptsd so bad, where he does not go outside the house. if he did not have the support system he had for me, he would end up in the hospital somewhere. i want to help people who are coming, but also, you drive down the street and you see all the veteran, no legs, with signs and begging. we should help those who were here first and then help everybody else. host: a couple calls there about the root of the problem. at a news conference, congressman tony gonzalez who represents the border district in that state talked about

border security and the issue of cartels. [video clip] >> whether you are a dog, cat, member of congress, whether you are the media -- showing out matters. i want to take the speaker for making this happen. i want to thank the speaker's team for putting this together. i want to thank our own team. this is our 21st and i want to thank our team for working together to put this together. thank you to the members to have all traveled to get here, two days after the holidays. we could all be doing different things, but we are united in making sure that our top priority is securing the border. it shows by us being here. two weeks ago, there were 12,000 people coming over illegally. right down the street, there

were thousands of people in the firefly facility that we visited earlier today that had a max capacity. there were 6000 people. 4000 people were getting released and we were at the brink of massive catch and release. when that happens, our communities get turned upside down. it may start in eagle pass, but it quickly reaches san antonio and it quickly reaches all over the country. today that stops. it may have to do with the fact that the speaker and other members showed up, but it stopped. 1400 border patrol agents today are not processing migrants that have come into our country illegally. they are out in the field, doing their job and that is what i would argue that we are -- that we are fighting for the hardest. we want them to get back to

doing their job. how do we fix this? we deport people who are here illegally by the thousands, not by the dozens. if you stop talking for one second and you just listen like we did today, if you hear from the ranchers, from the sheriffs, from the judges come the mayors, the people who live here every day, they will tell you the same thing. you want to get the root of the issue? the root of the issue is the cartels. they turn it on and they turn it off. today is a prime example of that. it is long time for us to label cartels as terrorist organization. host: jeffrey n los angeles, good morning to you. caller: good morning to you. how are you? host: who do you hold

responsible for the situation at the border? caller: let's be practical. i do not think there is enough information that you can grab on to say whether you support were oppose. you get snippets. they value up but we are not getting all thrmation that we need to get it is hard to say whether one president is doi good or another one did bad because oy get snippets at el time, so yourt -- you focus on the border and say we have had people coming in for years, decades and it has always been something, so he say one administration is doing better than the other when we having a lot -- a lock in congress and senators are tying up? it is hard to say what is really going on at the border because

that is inflammatory situation causing to be in an uproar. they said, they are not doing enough and we are going to show up today and it will not. one thing that gonzalez said that i do agree with -- fentanyl from china and mexico, i think that is the key. the other stuff is just more of a deflection. the people coming in are allowing the drugs to come in. it is not just illegal immigrants, it is more drugs and money coming in. it is hard to control something like that. but to say it is an illegal immigrant problem -- no, it is an illegal drug problem. we are never going to get this problem fixed until that situation is put into control. host: in lakeland, florida. the morning. caller: i'm going to give a

totally different viewpoint. i am middle-class black. i do not know one single -- middle-class blacks are the heart of the party. i do not know one single middle-class black person, not one, who wants to come one, come all when it comes to the border. guess who it hurts more than anybody else in this country. they refused to bring this up. everyone on the left is saying come one, come all. blacks do not run anything in south florida. run anything in south florida. when these people come here,

that was 90% democratic, now it's 50-50. biden won with 33% and i was down to 5%. they are going to come over your and build these businesses and if you don't speak spanish, [inaudible] host: alan in bakersfield, california, what do you say, support or oppose the biden administration's border and immigration policies? caller: yeah, i think of i wanted to destroy america, i would be supporting bidens border policies. these immigrants don't integrate. we have desegregation in the 70's and we barely were able to hold the country together and get the blacks to integrate into the american society and now we

got to deal with millions of illegal immigrants that are coming in and taking our jobs and depressing wages. they are a net economic negative and also, they cause a lot of crime. especially with the cartels and we have the fentanyl. we've got to get quotas back, we got to limit the amount -- host: we will take a break from this conversation and turn our attention to the economy when we come back. the axios chief economic correspondent neil irwin will be back at our table this morning and later, criminologist jeff ascher discusses his research into the u.s. crime rate why so many americans think it's up when the data shows it's actually falling. stay with us.

♪ >> the house and senate are in recess for the holidays and will return next week for the start of the second session of the 118th congress. congress convenes on january 8 and the house on january nine. they want to avoid a government shutdown in the first on january 19 and the other on february 2. >> the committees are ready to do the work but we are awaiting the other side, the other chamber to come forward with a number we can agree upon. >> leader mcconnell and i will figure out the best way to get this done quickly. neither leader mcconnell nor i want a shut down. >> follow the progress when congress returns on the c-span networks, c-span now, or anytime online at c-span.org.

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♪ >> at 8 p.m. eastern, coeditor of the liberating art and contributor from st. john's college and baylor university's jonathan tran talk about the value oferal arts education and at 10 p.m. eastern on afterwords peter biskind with his book pandora's box. he's interviewed by the wall street journal media and entertainment bureau chief. what book tv every sunday on

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you can also stay current with the latest episodes of "washington journal" and find scheduling information for our tv networks and c-span radio plus a variety of compelling podcasts. it's available at the apple store and google play. you can scan the qr code or visit our website c-span.org/ c-span now. it's your front row seat to washington anytime, anywhere. >> "washington journal" continues. host: back with us this morning is neil irwin, the chief economic correspondent with axios to talk about the u.s. economic outlook. let's begin with a major discussion point over the past couple of years which is inflation and are we headed toward another recession? where are we right now? guest: 2023 went into than most people were expecting. a lot of people had high

recession odds for 2023 in the federal reserve had raised interest rates in 2022 and the recession didn't happen. we have stronger growth than most forecasters expected. inflation came down faster than many were expecting. we are in the 4% range. that's not what most people were expecting. we were 9% back in the spring. the question for 24 is can it continue and can we sustain the steady growth and lower employment? host: are there still recession fears and who fears it? guest: there is always the risk that interest rate increases that the fed overdid it and they will not back away quickly enough and there is a real risk now that we have these 5%+ interest rates that that still has effects that will come over the course of 2024 and slow

activity because a downturn in hiring and recession later in the year. it's not the consensus forecast but the convinced -- but the consensus view. host: did the federal reserve land the elusive soft landing? guest: it's not over until it's over. you canada clear victory because you are tempting fate but so far so good. it's fair to say that if you told anybody at the fed or in the biden administration where things would stand at the end of 2023, they would not agree with this forecast. host: what prevented a recession from not occurring? what was the policy or policies? guest: a lot of this inflation we experienced in 21 and 22 was driven by factors that involve the pandemic reopening. supply chain disruptions we heard about from trade networks

and all things were real and those things unwound a little last year. it became less severe. christmas of 2021, there were many things missing but christmas 2023, you can get most everything you wanted. we saw an increase in labor supply over the last year. people who stopped working said they would get back in the job market. the supply side of the economy got more capacity and more demand which was not the case. we have to solve this inflation problem on the demand side by crushing demand and having people laid off and lose their incomes. host: you wrote so far inflation has fallen to near normal levels without any major upsurge in joblessness or other broad damage to the economy. in 2024, the fed's job is to try to stick the soft landing. it could err in either direction.

our interest rates the main variable here? guest: in the most advanced countries, we rely on the central banks to being the main -- be the main economic driver. they are trying to achieve that steady growth with no recession and low inflation. they don't always succeed but that's the goal. that's the main game in town in terms of trying to set policy to achieve that steady growth. they can err in either direction and they might back off too soon and inflation might go up again and that would not be a good situation. we also don't want to see a recession. those are risks that they miss calibrate. host: what has jerome powell said? has he shown his cards? guest: if you can read between the lines, they have a language of their own where you can get a

lot of value. they had a meeting in the middle of december and a press conference after that. what was clear is they don't have a plan right now. they still want to cut interest rates in 2024 but they are not ready to declare victory. at the same time, if you look at the projections of the actual members, they pretty much all expect to see rate cuts in 2024 and expectancy low inflation this year and steady growth. if you look at what they write down their forecast, it's a pretty benign outlook, things look pretty good. that's a projection and projections are not worth the paper they are not printed on. host: we usually cover the conference jay powell holds after he meets with the federal reserve board members. you are listening to him and thinking what? what did he just say?

at the next one, what should our viewers be listening for, what are the keywords to help them read between the lines? guest: the next meeting will be this month and they will likely leave interest rates unchanged. then he comes out and i'm usually in the room at the press conference and we in the media eskimo bunch of questions to try and parse what they are thinking. what we are looking for is does he send signals that rate cuts are on the horizon as soon as march? that looks like a possibility in a way it didn't a couple of months ago. they want to save the options and they might raise interest rates further but it's possible we see the first cut as early as march. we have these 19 officials all over the country like the federal reserve bank of different cities. they come together eight times a

year to hammer out how they are thinking about things. we don't know how strong the consensus is for rate cuts. inflation is going away and rates have been too high for too long and is causing damage to the economy. we will look for indications that sentiment has changed. host: neil when is here with us this morning and can answer your questions and comments and clear up any confusion you have about the economy. start dialing in, republicans (202) 748-8001, democrats (202) 748-8000 an independents (202) 748-8002. you can text us as well include your first name, city and's date, (202) 748-8003. we can take those questions as well. what sectors of the economy are doing well and where are their vulnerabilities? guest: everything consumer-based has held up quite well.

leisure and hospitality has bounced back amazingly and restaurants and hotels are full. if you want to go to a vacation destination, you still see high prices for flights and hotel rooms. where there is softness, the tech sector has taken it on the chin with a lot of layoffs at the big tech companies and some parts of wall street have had to have some layoffs there. you see some pockets so manufacturing over all is still in contraction territory. there is definitely some pockets of weakness in the u.s. economy but if you look at the over arching state of the labor and job market and demand, it's quite strong. host: how would you tuesday just -- how would you describe the

stock market right now? guest: rates get up to 8% this year and that's been hard for homebuyers. it creates a lock in effect where would-be sellers don't want to sell. if you had a 3% mortgage back in 2021, maybe you will stay in your house for a long time to keep that low rate rather than upgrading for making a change. the housing market is almost frozen. buyers can't really afford prices and mortgages and sellers don't want to give up their low mortgages of volume is low. anyone who relies on volume like real estate agents, that's not so great. how much will supply solve that problem? they would like to see more building and is rates come down and that backs up this year, maybe we can get some help in the housing market but we are not there now. host: is the supply increasing? guest: rates of construction

were not as highs they were in 2022. it would be great for them to catch up. host: ohio, republican, you're a first. caller: yeah, your outlook on the u.s. economic and you are not affiliated with republicans or democrats. they are all stating how bad the economy is for the last three years. inflation is down from the highs it was. it's still way up and they just talked about it nonstop. we are $37 trillion or more in debt. i just bought a second home but my first home is paid for. my girlfriend bought another one in ohio.

she got a 30 year mortgage and we have 20 people trying to buy from us. i have friends who are builders. there is no demand with the interest rates to build. i was in one of my banks yesterday and the rates are 8.9%. if there -- if this party wins again, the democrats, our energy into everything, electricity, gas bills are up 23%. i don't know how you say it's on the rebound. the four years we had with the republicans, every department and when covid hit it was still high and then trump didn't win and the only thing that came out was the tailwind of what he had going but everything was reversed from day one. this green energy movement, they will crush us again with this energy in the energy alone is

crushing this country. host: what do you want neil irwin to respond to because you said a lot? guest: rates are up $20 per hour. they are talking about numbers on unemployment. they outlawed people who worked in two or three jobs. they can't stay up with inflation. host: ok, we will leave it there. guest: inflation was extremely high and still elevated, is not like prices are going back to 21 levels but inflation is not as high as 2021. something he said i want to point out. he's talking about how terrible the economy is and he just bought a second house. this is the thing you see a lot as you look at the mix of data and opinion and how people think about things. cars are expensive because everybody's buying cars, housing

is expensive because everybody's buying houses. everybody is buying stuff and has money in their pockets but the same time, they say the economy is terrible. people say things are terrible and i have to understand why. i would point out it's an odd situation when all the measures of spending and activity are quite strong. inflation is very high, no doubt about it. it was extremely high in 2022 and its still elevated and that meant things unpleasant for everybody. host: this is from the associated press -- what is the impact of this on the economy? guest: these high debt levels are a factor in pushing longer-term interest rates up. when the government borrows money and selling trillions of dollars worth of bond, that is competition for capital,

mortgage borrowers and banks. part of the story of interest rates being up is not just the federal reserve did this or that to try and stop inflation but it's partly the u.s. government borrowing a ton of money. that is one factor pushing rates up. is there ever an effort to do some kind of bipartisan effort to bring the deficit down? that's not where the political conversation is now. the next juncture comes toward the end of 2025 when a bunch of the trump tax cuts are scheduled to expire. there will be a hard-fought battle over which ones to extend and which ones to and in how the change in tax policy will be. it depends who wins the presidency and that will determine the stakes and power dynamics and structure of those negotiations and where tax policy ends up into 2026 and beyond. host: when will congress and the white house have to deal with the drivers of our nations debt,

social security and medicare? guest: the key thing to think about is when this social security trust fund will run out, 2023. that means if you follow current law, social security will have to cut benefits in order to match the amount of money coming in because the trust fund is depleted. that would be a 25% immediate cuts. congress would move heaven and earth to keep that from happening but to they find a long-term fiscal solution for social security and medicare in those negotiations? it's something that is on the horizon how that dynamic shapes up. it could change depending how the economy does. at some point in the early 20 30's, this moment of reckoning comes where something has to happen with social security or there will be cut that nobody wants to see. host: democratic caller, good

morning to you. caller: hasn't the economy been turning around? the republican party couldn't fix it either? it doesn't make any sense. they can't fix it, maybe they should keep their nose out of it, thank you. host: if he's referencing the end of the trump administration to now, the end of the bidens first term, talk about the role of the pandemic. guest: the pandemic was such an unusual event. it created such distortions all the economic data we pay attention to. some economists cut out that time because it makes the axis of the chart haywire. it was so unusual so i look at a longer time horizon.

2017 when trump was president, those were good years for the economy and inflation was low. there was a lot to like about that period no matter what you think about trump and his policies. the pandemic was a disruptive event. if you look to your immediate question, over the biden administration since january 21, most of that has been rebuilding from the pandemic trough. industries that were completely ripped apart like travel and tourism being prominent, we've seen massive job growth and job creation. wages have to adjust for inflation. it depends on what time period you use and wages have been right and people are making more money than back in 2021 on average. are they making more in real terms to adjust for inflation?

most data points would say in 21-2022, people were falling behind because they saw a raise but not at a rate they could keep up. now we are seeing more real wage growth. inflation is down to roughly 3% so we are finally seeing progress on real wages for the first time in a few years. host: mike, a republican, hi. caller: thank you for taking my call. i would like to see congress send to the states for adoption a meaningful and enforceable and not easily avoidable balanced budget amendment. last time they tried was about 25 years ago. i think it would force government to become more responsible as far as its economic status and the measures

it votes on, thank you. guest: people talk about a balanced budget. you don't necessarily need the budget to be in balance to have a stable fiscal situation. as long as you borrow less money than the share of economy, you can do that forever. the u.s. has had debt for forever so you don't need an absolute balanced budget. what we have now is deficits about 6% of gdp. that's the outlook for notches this year or the pandemic but a decade from now. that is not sustainable. the economy is only growing 2% or so long-term. if we keep on the current trajectory, we will absolutely have upwardly spiraling debt and a problem at some point. what's the best political mechanism to triton bring that down and narrow that? that will be something we hear

about from congress in the coming years. you have to watch the debt service cost. interest rates go higher and we have is outstanding debt like if you have a variable rate loan on your mortgage and rates go way up and you keep are we more money, you will be in trouble soon. that's where the u.s. government is unless there is an effort to reduce deficits. it doesn't have to get all the way to balance but to bring 6% down to 2% would go toward bringing us to a more sustainable situation. host: we are talking about the outlook of the u.s. economy. he is the chief economic correspondent for axios. roland in glen burnie, maryland, democratic caller. caller: thanks for taking my call and i hope you will give me more time than you gave the other guy. republicans cannot handle this economy.

they prayed for a recession and they keep talking about the con me. they are trying to make hunter biden the topic and i don't believe all those polls. they are talking about a balanced economy. if the minimum wage was $15, everybody would be in good shape. guess what, it's almost $16 and it has not helped. how many jobs have been created during trump? everything was great under trump? he got more legislation on the tax codes. do you know the specific amount of jobs created under trump? guest: 2017 on were strong for

job growth. job growth has been exceptional in the last few years. let me key on something which is labor supply. there was a big discussion in 2021 when employers couldn't hire people. there were labor shortages in a lot of complaints and 21 and 22 that the job market was too hot and it was impossible to find workers. there is still pockets of that. the combination of employers paying higher wages combined with getting through the worst of the pandemic and getting through -- we've seen labor supply increase. instead of a great resignation, we've seen people get back to work in higher numbers and that's part of the reason we's -- we saw strong growth last year was because workers are being productive and that's part of the story. host: washington state,

independent. caller: hi, thank you for taking my call. i've got some question and comment for mr. erwin if you care to respond. seeing her the world has changed rapidly since 2000, economic situations are much more complicated. u.s. dollar doesn't have the same certainty as it did before. i'm wondering if economists including the fed or looking at may a real change in world dynamics and economies when they try to control or work on our economy. specifically, i'm kind of puzzled why the magic 2% inflation rate is such that that's the target. maybe floating up at 3% for right now isn't that bad. where did the 2% come from and

what does it really mean? guest: as he says, the fed and all the other major central banks around the world have a 2% inflation target and they say they want inflation to rise in average about 2% every year and if we reach that, that's stable enough. it's kind of arbitrary as you are suggesting. the first inflation target came from new zealand in 1989. i wrote about it a few years ago and it was pulled out of some of someone's imagination. it was a rigorous thing. all the major countries have moved in that direction. if you try to set inflation at zero, you are at risk of falling into deflation. you have less ability to stimulate the economy during a recession because you cannot rates as far. when inflation is higher, they don't like that either. inflation was 4% per year and it

means your money is less valuable. maybe you have to factor inflation in with people you do business with soap 2% is high enough to leave some room to stimulate the economy but not so high that people notice it. i think alan greenspan argued that inflation should be low enough that you don't think about it that much. people ask whether they should move higher in what they have more ability to meet their goal? when chair powell and others have been asked that, they say no, we have a goal and something we written down have to stick to it. any conversation about any changes that have to happen. if you say your goal is to percent and once you miss it high, you just say never mind, people will think you will do that again and again. the view is that having some credibility at 2% is important.

if you are going to change that one day, make it way down the road when you have achieved price stability. host: leslie in georgia, democratic caller. caller: good morning, greta. i would like to make a couple of points. first of all, trump's economy was great because he was riding the waves of president obama's economy. secondly, i would like to say that workers are coming back now because they are not coming back to their slave minimum wages. they are coming back to 11 and $12 an hour. that was put forth by these private companies and the third thing i was like to say is republicans, you think they do so much but bernie sanders has a minimum wage where he is trying to make the minimum wage $17 an hour over a couple of years.

the republicans want to only give you all $11.25 per hour over four years. even though the democrats, they both dialed us out, democrats to try to help us workers more than the republicans. guest: minimum wage is at seven dollars 25 cents and has become irrelevant the last two years because it hasn't -- the federal government hasn't decreased it yet. market wages have risen a lot. try to hire someone for $7.50 per hour and see how it goes. you will not find too many workers who want to work for that. higher wages are part of the story of higher labor supply. what has driven wages up along with inflation is a factor in some of these labor supply and people wanting to work.

if you're going to work at a job that's not too pleasant, you are likely dead more likely to do it at $17 per hour. host: statesville, north carolina, your comments. caller: all i want to know is, why is it so confusing to the public? you have different people come online and speak to us about the connie. -- talk about the economy. we find the price too high in the store and we have to get another job. i don't understand how these people can factor in this information and tell us we are doing better. we are not doing better in our personal lives. that's the only question i have. guest: back to what we talked about a couple of times this morning, this is the key story in how average americans are interpreting the economy. the labor market is good and you can get a job and wages arising but things you buy at the store

are more expensive. looking forward, are we through the worst of the inflation and will prices stabilize? maybe some prices are declining but not all the way back to 2019 levels. we've seen gasoline prices down to three dollars per gallon and it was higher than that in 2022. does that change the mood? you are able to keep that nice raise you got because the labor market is tight but your grocery bill is not as bet is was last year or it levels off. it changes people's mood and people say things are getting better and that's what the biden administration is hoping but nobody really knows for sure. inflation was so unpleasant and caused such a rise in the cost of living that those effects will last a while. i cannot predict -- predict how that will progress. host: jerome powell at his end

news conference was asked what surprised him about the u.s. economy. take a listen and we will talk about it. [video clip] >> i'm curious if you're looking back in the past year and talked about navigating under cloudy skies. can you talk about the ways in which the economy surprised you most this year where it would behave one way and then didn't? >> forecasters generally if you go back a year were very broadly forecasting a recession for this year, 2023. not only did that not cap in, that include fed forecasters in all far -- and all forecasters. they predicted very weak growth or recession and not only did that not happen but we had a strong year. that was a combination of strong demand but also real gains on the supply side. this was the year one labor force participation picked up an immigration picked up, where the

distortions to supply and demand from the pandemic, the shortages really began to unwind. we had significant supply-side gains with strong demand we got what looks like a 2.5% growth year at a time when potential growth this year might have been higher than that because of the healing on the supply-side. that was a surprise to just about everybody. i think the inflation forecast is roughly what people wrote down a year ago but in a different setting. i would say the labor market because of the stronger growth has been significantly better. if you look back, there is a significant increase in unemployment but it didn't happen, we are still at 3.7%. we've seen strong growth, still a tight labor market but one that is coming back into balance with support from the supply-side, greater supply of labor. that's what we see and i think that combination was not

anticipated broadly. host: when you heard him give that answer, what was your reaction? guest: that is way of not wanting to declare victory and not wanting to puff his chest but that the central bank equivalent of that. a year ago, people said there would be recession and we avoided it so far. inflation has come down in the context of solid growth. a lot of the models that you could not do that and we were open-minded and it looks like it's happening so far. host: do you think he sleeps through the night now? guest: i think central bankers are not -- are paid not to sleep through the night. host: dan, and independent. caller: i'm turning down my tv.

i will be 65 in march and i'm on social security disability now. i can't afford homeowners insurance. i've got a cost-of-living raise on my social security disability and they just keep inching down benefits more and more. guest: there is no question there is a lot of things more expensive where the markets are dysfunctional and homeowners insurance is one of them. it's important to disentangle individual parts that have problems that are making things hard to get or too expensive and things that are macro economic problems. there were a lot of problems with drug prices.

insurance prices are in a high risk area for climate change. those are big challenges for americans, for people trying to make a living. at the same time, it's not the same as a broad inflation problem or broad macro economic problem. it's not that they are less significant but they are not of them solved by big picture things around interest rates and deficits and things like that. they are solved by micro efforts to address those problems. host: john, a republican. caller: thanks for taking my call. the one thing i have on this inflation conversation -- a guy like mr. irwin here or any jerome powell or any of these guys is that how the minimum wage ties into our inflation picture.

if it's $7.25 and you are working for a flower, -- for the power company and you make $35 per hour working for the power company admin which goes up 15 -- up to $15 per hour, you are only making 2.5 times the minimum wage when it was that $7.25, you are making five times the minimum wage. that has to balance out in times of the inflation picture through minimum wage and the ability to purchase something otherwise known as purchasing power, drastically change in has continued. in 19 80's, minimum wage was $3.35 an hour. when the minimum wage went to seven dollars $.25 in the mid-90's, that same candy bar cost $1.50. i like to know how that ties into it and your feelings on

that. guest: that's not how most economists think of the relationship between the minimum wage and inflation. you talk about the last few years, the federal minimum wage hasn't changed. the federal minimum wage hasn't changed in the last five years and we've had high inflation along the way. with driven higher wages for the most part is the tight labor market and employers needing to pay workers. the relationship between your wage and the minimum wage doesn't determine how your purchasing power is. what's happening to the prices of the things you buy, your wages and prices. if those are stable, you are doing great but if they rise, you're not doing so great. what happens on the minimum wage except for the backdoor things of your city or state raises the minimum wage than employers

might raise prices to keep up but that's not the story of the last few years. there's not much evidence that minimum wage increases have been a driver of higher inflation given that there has not been an increase in the federal minimum wage for 15 or 20 years. host: chris in bonita springs, florida, independent. caller: good morning, i want to bring up something about the federal reserve. you will notice in that clip you just showed, all of the american flags and the important looking shield behind the gentleman, i want people to understand that central banks like the federal reserve are not part of the government. not part of the government. there have been attempts to eliminate them over the years and presidents have been assassinated like kennedy for trying to do that. i'm going to read a quote from the founder of the rothschild

banking dynasty. host: we will talk about the independence of the federal reserve. guest: the federal reserve is part of the federal government ends was created by the federal reserve act in 1913 and passed by congress and signed by the present and revised several times since then. chairman jay powell was appointed by president trump and then president biden and confirmed by the senate. board members are appointed. they have this independence, a structure in a 14 year term where they have some kind of protection from political influence. you don't want them setting interest rate policy to help people win the next election. you want them to do what's best for the economy in the medium-term. the reserve banks around the country, there is 12 of them. those are kind of unusual public/private structures of

they have a board of directors and are involved in local businesses and community leaders and they are not appointed by the president of they are little less democratic. they are overseen by the board of governors in washington even though it has layers of independence, is a federal agency. there is deftly some truth that central banks and the federal reserve are unusual in how the government works. there are layers of protection there so they are not as purely democratic as most parts of the government that are under the control of the president directly but they are part of the government ultimately. host: lake geneva, wisconsin, independent. caller: good morning and happy new year and thank you for taking my call. i'm similar to the person who called from illinois earlier who was on social security. i am not on social security but i have a fixed pension and i've not received any in these in my

average yearly wages since the pandemic started. i'm way underwater as far as when it comes to what the inflation rate was and is. even though it's going down to 3%, it still up 3% more from what it was the previous year or month or whatever. that's my issue. there are many people in the country who are really struggling under this biden -bidenomics or whatever they call it. i just don't see, i think this next year is not going to be improved very much no matter how dovish they make it seemed that things are getting better interest rates are coming down. when i purchased might house in 1993, i had an 8% interest rate. thanks for taking my call. guest: part of what you are describing, if you are on a

fixed income or a pension that's fixed and there is high inflation, you suffer. there are plenty of people like that who have a fixed income pension or are living off of not seeing wage increases. that's why people dislike it so much as it creates winners and losers and is kind of an arbitrary and can be quite painful for the losers. they could get a year of 9% inflation and it doesn't get raising you just got a 9% pay cut. there is no doubt even if inflation continues coming down what you probably will, the experience we been through and the erosion of purchasing power, there's no question that's weighing on a lot of americans. host: neil erwin, chief economic correspondent for axios. you can follow his reporting if you go tox and follow him@neil

_irwin at axios. thank you for the conversation. in 30 minutes, we'll talk with criminologist jeff asher about his research into the u.s. crime rate. before we get to that, open forum when we come back from this break. any public policy or political issue that's on your mind, there are the lines to start dialing in. we will be right back. ♪ >> at 8 p.m. eastern on lectures in history, the religious studies professor on the formation of cults. at 9:30 p.m. eastern on the presidency, we will look at a

half a century after lyndon johnson died when presidential scholars discussing his place in american politics. exploring the american story, watch american history tv saturdays on c-span2 and find a full schedule on your program guide or watch online anytime at c-span.org/history. >> book tv every sunday on c-span features2 leading authors discussing their latest nonfiction books. at 8 p.m. eastern, jessica wilson from pepperdine university and coeditor of the lirating arts and contributor from st. john's college and baylor university's jonathan tran talk about the value of a liberal arts education at 10 p.m. easrnn afterwords, film historian peter bisknd with his book pandora's box.

changes in the networks to cable to streaming. he is interviewed by the wall street journal media and entertainment bureau chief. watch book tv, every sunday on c-span2 n nd a full schedule on your program guide or watch online atime at book tv.org. >> c-span's studentcam documentary competition is back. we are asking middle and high school students to create a 5-6 minute video addressing one of these questions. in the next 20 years, what is the most important change would like to see in america? or over the past 20 years, what has been the most important change in america? as we do each year, we are giving away $100,000 in total prizes with a grand prize of $5,000 and every teacher who has students participate in this

year's competition has the opportunity to share a portion of an additional $50,00 the competition deadline is for information, visit our website at studentcam.org. >> "washington journal" continues. host: we are in open forum for about the next 25 minutes. any public policy or political issue on your mind is on the table including our conversations from earlier about the biden administration's immigration and border security paul test policy -- border security policy and going mike johnson taking a delegation to the border and there was news about the action in iran yesterday. the white house national security council spokesman john kirby was asked about it and here is he had to say. [video clip] >> when asked about iran, the united states have any idea who

might be behind the bombing there today? secondly, does the usc the killing of the hamas leader as a significant change? >> on your first question, we are at a point now where we have a lot of great detail on this bombing. our hearts go out to the innocent victims and their family members, their lives will be forever changed by this but we don't have any more detail in terms of how it happened or who was responsible. on your second question, i would point to our israeli partners to talk more about this. we are not in a position to confirm the specific reports. i would just tell you that the designated global terrorist was killed. if he is infected dead, nobody

should be to shedding a tear over his loss. >> can you rule out that israel had anything to do with this? >> we have no indication at this time at all that israel was involved in any way whatsoever. >> did they support or assist in it? >> i will not speak for another nation. we have no indication that israel was in any way involved in this. host: john kirby at the white house yesterday. iran is blaming israel for that attack. the washington times front page story this morning --

that is from the front page of the washington times this morning. joseph in point pleasant, a republican, good morning to you. what's on your mind this morning, what public policy or political issue? caller: something you said early in the show, if i can make a couple of points. you said when you had the economist on that social security was the driver of the debt. i started paying into that 40

something years ago with the promise that when i got older the government would pay me. that was my money. that money was taken, stolen, it was a ponzi scheme and now i pay for illegal aliens coming into this country. i don't know why my money is part of the debt. it shouldn't be part of the debt, it was paid for. i don't understand why people don't realize that. it was a ponzi scheme, they took my money and spent it on people that don't belong here. host: john in tennessee, republican. caller: yeah. host: good morning. caller: yeah, how are you doing? host: doing well, we are listening to you, what's on your mind this morning? caller: they talk about cutting social security and stuff but what about the senators and congressmen's retirement when they spend one term up there,

they get their retirement and insurance paid as well. how much money are we paying out on that? host: grovetown, georgia, democratic caller. caller: thank you for taking my call. i just wanted to talk about the israeli and palestinian conflict. i've been a democrat all my life. i call every month and i have for years. i've tried to always be fair. i have read and read everything i could possibly understand on this conflict to try to educate myself. for the first time, i cannot vote for joe biden. i just can't. i know there are young people who are pro-palestinian but if i put my finger and vote for biden, i am voting for us to ok killing of thousands of thousands of palestinians that are innocent.

i just can't do it and i don't know if biden and the administration understand that i'm sure enough the only one. i don't know because i don't have a democratic group or anything. i know for me personally, i cannot enable our country to support what israel is doing right now. thank you. host: jim, a republican in central islip new york. go ahead. caller: as far as illegal immigration goes, i am steeped in it over here. i don't know why they go to the border, they can come here and see in eyeful. i'd like to give you a few examples. they had another house fire in central islip and five families

were in that house. the thing that people that don't -- people don't bring up, five families in their and they are not registered apartment so they are not paying the taxes to support the police and so forth. you understand what i am saying? they are trained on public service. i read the times and i read the wall street journal and you got a lot of problems and some of these states where there is farming. i am wondering where all this food is going to come from defeat feed all the people coming in here. my still on? host: yes, we are listening. caller: a half of a mile from my house you can hear music. they are always blasting music, spanish people. christmas eve, i heard

fireworks. it is terrible. you have no idea what is going on. biden made a big mistake, he really screwed up. i know all of this, i live here. host: we are talking about the issue at the border which is what republicans were talking about when 60 of them joined their speaker at eagle pass, texas. blaming the biden administration saying they would not agree to resupplying ukraine with military support unless the biden administration and democrats agreed to stricter changes to immigration policy. martin in kentucky, a democratic caller. caller: good morning greta, it

is been a long time. i would like to make a comparison between the political career of donald trump in the 1971 song, i started a joke. i started to choke that started the whole world crying, but i didn't see that the joke was on me. until i finally died which started the whole world living, i finally see the joke was on me. host: next we have an independent. caller: thank you for taking my call. most expatriates from the united states live in mexico and we

have been having a crisis since the mexican american fight since 1875. you can see criminals go to mexico to escape doherty's the united states. this border thing is nothing new. we have people flying into this country all the time on visas and they never go back home. that's all i have to say about that. host: that was joseph in fayetteville, north carolina. we have been talking about border security and our first hour, the homeland security committee chair announcing he would hold impeachment hearings against the homeland security's i starting january 10, both for

the iowa caucus starts. a busy month in january for both washington and the 2024 primary. all of that coverage you can find on c-span.org. let's hear from dave in atwater, california. good morning to you, a democratic caller. caller: i just had a comment, the way you started the show with the white house press secretary. she always set on day one that biden submitted a comprehensive immigration policy to congress. but never explains what that was. i was wondering if some caller can point out what that is.

host: casper in ohio, good morning. caller: happy new year. what is happening at the border is considered an invasion. we are sending money to ukraine because they are being invaded, correct? my question to the biden administration, you put the military they are to do the job we are supposed to do, which is to protect our border. number two, everyone is going on this bidenomics thing. joe biden was vice president when they started the investigation on donald trump. he needs to be a part of the impeachment two. america needs to wake up and look at the truth. host: homeland security

secretary was on msnbc recently and he talked about the record breaking number of border crossings and this is what he had to say. [video clip] >> border patrol in the month of december process more migrants illegally than any month in the history of the agency. why is that happening? how do you ask lynette? -- how do you explain it? >> we are seeing the largest migration across the globe. i'm involved in multilateral meetings with my counterparts in europe, asia and and pacific, all over the world. the challenge of displaced people is a subject that comes up in every single conversation.

we have the effects of climate change, poverty, increasing level of authoritarianism. the many challenges that the root cause of displacement around the world. host: homeland securities sec. explanation of those border crossings. we talked about border immigration policies or any policy on your mind. in columbia, maryland, democratic caller. caller: hello, how are you this morning? host: i'm well. caller: my question is on economics. i hear people calling in explaining how difficult it is for them to live in their communities and yet when i turn on the television, i see stadiums are filled with people.

concerts are filled with people. you go to the grocery store and they are loading up their carts. i don't understand what they mean. my second question is on immigration. we have seen the tape of people crossing the border but we never see pictures people coming in on planes. you have to know that all of the fentanyl and drugs are not coming in with these poor people with babies in a backpack. host: we will hear comments from david, and independent. caller: good morning. i'd like to comment on the israel/gaza thing. will they hold israel

accountable and have a nuremberg style trial for the war crimes they are committing? as far as the border, republicans will never do anything as long as it's polling good for them. they will never do anything. they enact laws based on polling and not what is good for people. host: joel in illinois. caller: you had a caller that alluded what president biden is doing with tax dollars. we are watching our tax dollars facilitate the killing of thousands of innocent palestinians. i can't believe there is no outcry for them.

israel is doing this under the guise of defending themselves. there is an israeli who made the comment they want to move palestinians out of the strip and move israeli sin and i believe that is what their agenda is under the guise of defending themselves. it is really disheartening to me how we can stand idly by and allow our tax dollars do this sort of thing. it's upsetting to me. another comment about the biden administration, i am disappointed at them to be honest with you. he is allowing this and also the border. i know he wants to be sympathetic but if you get to sympathetic when they enter the

country, is going to become chaos at the border. he couldn't govern really well at this point in his life and that's all i wanted to say. thank you. host: joel, and independent there. here are some headlines from usa today, the price of insulin is capped at $35. federal provisions aid people with diabetes to cap the price of insulin taking effect on new year's day giving more americans with diabetes more affordable treatment. there is the story in the wall street journal taking a look at the majority in the house and the 2024 election. both republicans and democrats the realistic path to when

control of the house of representatives in which a handful of close races will tip the ballot in the chamber. they talked with david wasserman with the cook political report which says house elections is one of the most suspenseful once we havseen yet in the race. republicans narrow control of the house sets up a barn burner in 2024. in lincoln, nebraska, democratic color. caller: thank you for taking my call. the economy, i think it is slowly getting better. it's starting to warm up. it's like turning on the shower, things are cold at first but they are going to warm up. then i think that is because of

biden. i like the insulin cap, you can think democrats and progressives for that. i think we need to lower the cost of medical care and prescriptions. i think it's time for universal health care. the whole thing with the economy and crime. i think this might be an issue. i don't have a problem with immigrants coming here. but housing is too expensive and there's not enough of it. if they really want trustworthy, hard-working workers they are going to need to provide affordable housing. host: sorry john, we will be talking about crime coming up here. we will look at recent data. brett in idaho, a republican.

good morning. caller: thanks for taking my call. i would just resist calling people democratic colors if they are a democrat. it's the least democratic country in the world. host: mike in missouri, and independent. caller: good morning greta. there are a lot of things bothering me today. i did not like the way your guest ignored the fact when he was speaking that trump inherited a perfect economy from obama and joe inherited a broken, run down economy which is now up and running for the american people. i also want to comment on the border. do you remember back at joe

biden state of the union address when the republicans started screaming and hollering about the border and joe biden said give me more technology. and lastly, i am worried about our constitution, donald trump our only president who ever said we should suspend the constitution because it was against him. now, we have all of the republican candidates saying if donald trump were to be convicted they would pardon him putting aside the constitution. the constitution says he should not be able to read and i believe in that.

if he gets convicted in the documents case where we all know he had the documents for 18 months after being subpoenaed and he kept tiding them around. surely he will be convicted in that case. and then the republicans, nikki haley and all them, saying they will give him a pardon. they are putting aside the constitution. the republicans care not for the constitution. if we give the border to the republicans and let them shut the border down, seal it off. how long will it be better produce showing? americans don't like

slaughtering cows. immigrants do those jobs. host: one headline we shared with you earlier. the former president asking the supreme court to keep him on the ballot. the petition came in response to the colorado ruling that the president had engaged in insurrection and ineligible to hold office under the 14th amendment. the former president asking him to stay on the ballot, the rulings say that the first time they have kept a candidate off the ballot. the growing pressure on the u.s. supreme court to act given the number of challenges to his eligibility and the nationwide resolution of the primary approach. the issues are of exceptional

importance of reired this court's prompt resolution. that is what his attorneys wrote. in georgia, and independent. caller: my question is with inflation, who pays for social security for unpaid housewives or retirement and single folks? who pays for that? is it realistic for every person to be on the payroll of a company? host: theresa's thoughts in georgia. we will take a break and when we come back we will turn our attention to the u.s. crime rate. we will speak to criminologist jeff asher. >> the house and senate are at recess for the holidays and will return next week or the 118th

congress. the congress convenes on 18th and the house on the ninth. they both have budget funding deadlines to avoid a government shutdown. the first on january 19 and the second on february 2. we are waiting for the other team to come forward with the number we can agree upon. >> leader mcconnell and i will agree on a number we do not want to see a shutdown. c-span. your unfiltered view of government. if you ever miss any of c-span's coverage you can find it any time at c-span.org.

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. there is something for every c-span fan and every purchase helps to support our nonprofit organization. shop now or at any time at c-spanshop.org. host: joining us this morning is jeff asher a crime analyst and consultant and cofounder of ah analytics. i want to read a headline from your website, crime in 2023, murder plummeted, property crime fell nationally. this is a contrast to three and four americans who believed crime rose this year. here is from nbc news, a look at homicides in major cities. in new york city 11% down.

13% down and chicago, down 11% in houston and the list goes on. in phoenix, philadelphia 21% and dallas also down 12%. why is it that americans feel that crime rose but the numbers show a different story? guest: that's an excellent question. it's a complicated question. it's not so easy to point to one factor. the starting factor is that we don't have good crime data, timely crime data that would allow people to understand what the answer is. it is an answerable question, comment either went up or down. in the same way you can tell who won the world series or the super bowl. you can't really do that with crime.

when we ask people whether the trends they rely on anecdotes because they lack solid data and when they rely on anecdotes it leads to misremembering, bias toward anecdotes and unable to weigh what happened this year versus what happened last year. chris hayes on twitter mentioned the media does not cover the planes that land. there is never a story that says there was no robbery yesterday, there are only stories when they happen. you're asking people to take incomplete data and their memory of what they heard and make a judgment on whether or not

something happened or did not happen. that makes it really difficult. and finally, 92% of republicans feel crime got worse last year. 58% of democrats which is still a high percentage of democrats. it's not only partisan but is becoming a partisan issue rather than a factual issue. host: there is incomplete data and not timely data. how do you do your work? how do you get these numbers and how do you do your analysis? guest: for the murder data we keep a dashboard. it depends on how frequently they are updating. we have done the analysis to show that if you have 50 cities of data, you will mimic the

national trend puppy off by three-5%. if you have 150 cities data, then you're talking about a 1-2 .5% miss. we are in a position to estimate the national trend with pretty good accuracy. in our 200 city sample murder is down 12.5%. if you put your margin of error between 10-14% you are safe in assuming we saw a double-digit decline in murder and murder does not go up and down much. it's usually about 3%. the largest one-year decrease is a 9% decrease in 1996.

the largest increase was 30% in 2020. since see this kind of decrease is a historically large decrease on top of 2020, 2021. host: what do you attribute to the decline? guest: again, a tough question. it's complicated. criminologists are not sure why murder declined in the 90's. to answer why this happened is still pretty early and analytic terms. the most compelling explanation is the pandemic faded in 2022 into the background and that removed a lot of stresses for most americans.

covid-19 has not gone away but the relationship with the viruses change. it led to significantly less stress. it led to the types of philanthropic programming that was put on hold. city and state government services and hiring started again. in a way they had not in 2020 and 2021. you can plausibly argue that police departments that were not able to police in certain ways were able to do things they were used to again. what we are seeing is a return to almost normal life and part of that is a decrease due to the

pandemic. host: we are doing it by region so eastern (202) 748-8000, mountain pacific (202) 748-8001. what is that like in your city what is your perception of crime in your city and around the country? do people always think crime is higher than it actually is? guest: it didn't used to be like this. in the 90's when the polling started, people were seeing that crime was going down, especially violent crime. crime is poorly defined. do you mean crime as major crimes that the fbi reports? do you mean violent crime? do you mean murder?

which make a tiny slice of crime but takes on an outsized effect because it has the highest societal cost. in the 90's americans were good at it. when the level leveled off at 2000, it was hard to tell. given all the challenges, their bass response was that it went up. you started to see partisanship in 2000 under republican president democrats said that crime went up. and then it switched and the obama years and then switched again in the trump years. nothing like we have seen today where there is an enormous partisan gap. host: 55% believe that crime has

gone up in their local area. what do you think of those numbers? guest: if murder goes down and 75% of cities, that doesn't mean it's happening everywhere. there are places like washington dc and memphis where you see big increases in crime, especially in murder and gun violence. for the most part, what we see with murder in the quarterly data which they released in december is that there was widespread decline. big cities, small cities, rural, suburban, everywhere is seeing a decline in crime except auto theft. the feeling of crime going up or

down has been the paramount motivator and answering that type of question. i would love to see the question better defined. i would love to see a better understanding of where people are when they are answering. some of those people will be right but based on the preliminary data are going to be wrong. host: pat in camden, new jersey. good morning. caller: good morning, good morning america. i live near philadelphia. i lived in camden, new jersey during the crack error that had many problems. my understanding is that police need to submit their stats, is that happening?

every day, every local news channel shows everything a black boy does wrong. i just retired last year and i'm very interested in how we can make our inner city safe. host: alright pat, we will let you it's at the door. guest: i was say the police department does report crime so the figures we are talking about come from the officially reported crime statistics. there is a separate survey which shows the share of crimes that are unreported and helps to deal with that. we know that crime is underreported. we know certain crimes, especially sex offenses, property crimes are more

systemically underreported. what we are relying on here is police reported crime but were talking about murder and homicide. murder and homicide, yeah you will probably have a couple that are not properly reported. but we should be getting nearly 100% reporting on those types of incidents. measuring our trend using. means we are not worrying about underreporting, getting better, worse or whether police are properly reporting shoplifting incidents. we are talking about the heinous tragedy of murder which gives us a lot more confidence from a data perspective that the figures we are talking about is accurate. host: mike in brooklyn.

caller: hi, good morning. with illegal immigrants, in brooklyn if you walk out with the necklace her earrings and you're not watching out closely, you will get ripped off by an illegal immigrant. every time they get a call about ripping off the jewelry you get redirected. host: how do you know they are illegal immigrants? caller: because i talk to them. they say they are coming in from the cartels. host: you are speaking to the people committing these crimes? caller: the people at the

shelter. what is the trend there. host: let's take up this question because there's an association between crime and illegal immigrants, do you have statistics? guest: it's difficult especially with property crimes, with there being a 20% clearance rate. it's difficult to say the nature of perpetrators across the board. when we talk about murder, the vast majority are not illegal immigrants. i live in new orleans and i'm not familiar with this single victim or perpetrator that was an illegal immigrant in new orleans.

there were a lot of american citizens that were victims or perpetrators. i think the numbers being reported by police should not be affected by the arrest status of the perpetrator. host: david in deerfield, illinois. caller: good morning. i think the statistics are questionable because i live outside of chicago and you have to look at the number of arrests, convictions. if we are not arresting and convicting people they never get into statistics. i think those numbers are lower

than they were five years ago. if we are not convicting people, i would assume they're not getting into the final statistics. to say that things are better is something not a lot of people in chicago would agree with and it's more from everyday life then looking at statistics. people watching smash and grabs and normals and half the story in the main shopping district are gone. they are closed down and gone. carjackings all the time. our wonderful governor approved no bail release of criminals. then you look back at the summer

during covid where there was general lawlessness, no arrests being made. the laws were not even being enforced. host: we will take your comments. guest: two your first comment, the status of the arrest or prosecution has no effect on whether the police department reports numbers. if the theft is reported to the police, they report the figures regardless of what happens after the events occurred. from a statistical standpoint whether or not arrests are being made are prosecutors have prosecuted them it's not important for statistical purposes. with your second comment, a 10-15% decline a murderous

great. 600 murders in chicago is not good. i would argue that one can acknowledge a positive trend while still acknowledging that the problem exists and there is a lot of work to get to the point where things are acceptable. even in 2014 where the u.s. reported the lowest murder rates it has ever reported, one could still argue that the murder rate was still too high and we still had work to do. just because the trend is positive people should not be except that is the final trend or things are perfect. and you answered the question of why do people think crime is up? you have the expansion of viral videos that things like tiktok

with the expansion to access to social media where you can see a viral smash and grab a destroyer. you can see a beating on the subway and that will impact your impression of what is happening citywide in a way that 10, 15 years ago your impression would have not been impacted. the expansion of access to anecdotal or viral videos is making it so it's hard to understand the trend. host: a viewer says, my local home depot locked up the items on three aisles, is that a sign of decreasing crime? guest: it could be a sign that they take shoplifting seriously. it could be a sign -- i don't think it's related to crime necessarily.

it's not a relative to the trends or the degree to which the company is taking product loss more seriously. in a way that they may not have before. especially with shoplif ting and retail theft we go by anecdote given the data quality challenges of the crime without more info on where the store is in what the trend is, you can't say whether or not crime is going up or down. host: eric and ocean county, new jersey. caller: yes, i take exception with some of your comments regarding the comparison from this year to last year. what i would like to see is give

us an average crime rate for the years 2017-2019. mark twain had something humorous about statistics. you seem to be emphasizing perception. counterbalancing that is the fact that crimes involving shoplifting, $900 or less are not even crimes anymore. so statistics could not be including anything we would deem as shoplifting. my final comment as i would love to see a study about crime rates in philadelphia, chicago and new york under the latest district attorneys and the crime recidivism taking place. guest: if you take crime big

picture, the violent crime rate was lower than it was in 2017, 2019. in those file in 2021. that was because there was less people out so there was less shoplifting. the 2023 figures that we have preliminary data on, if the data is correct, we would see lower crime numbers then in 2017-2019. the official figure of the violent crime rate might drop

the lowest since the 1960's. the murder rate is still higher than it was in 2019 but has come down significantly from where it was in 2020, 2021 but is likely higher. what we are talking about is the trend and we can be encouraged by the trend and no the decline in murder was historic relative to previous years while acknowledging it is not good enough if it was odd or below the 2019 level in you're still talking about memphis and washington dc where there still exists the countertrend. i'm not trying to say everything is rosy but we can acknowledge

the data and if we talk about the gallup poll which people say that it is getting worse, it's wrong. even though that it is not perfect, it is improving. host: here's otr comment, south bend, india i the most dangerous cityn iia. the leadership is extremely liral and any connection between crime and political leadership? guest: as far as we know, not that i'm aware of. i don't have the crime rates of indiana towns off the top of my head. i will say from the quarterly numbers we have from the fbi, finally crime in rural counties are down 8.3 percent, suburban counties down 6%, cities a

million or over are down. property crime you see the exact same trends, down 17% in rural counties, 6% in suburban counties. one difference you are seeing is auto theft in bigger cities is surging in a way that it is not in small towns and counties and that is due to the ease in which kia's and hyundais have become stealable. in cities, there has been a 12-13% decline. it's not just big cities run by democratic mayors. it's not just red states or blue states. the trend we see is nationwide.

i'm looking forward to having more data, i'm looking forward to the fourth quarter data and completing the murder picture for this year. but everything we have preliminarily shows a widespread decline. host: where can people follow you and your company in these numbers? do you report them? guest: we have a year to date murder dashboard age data latex.com. find the dashboard. i am on sub stock that i try to contribute weekly based on how well my kids have behaved. where some of that analysis visited. the point of the dashboard is to

write as much broad data as possible and what it means and applies for national trends because the whole goal is to understand what is happening nationally. host: we have eddie in florida. good morning, is it eddie? caller: it is letty. i have a thing to say about fox news, they do a loop of smash and grab us. with the murder rate, the first thing we need to talk about cosby guns. about 15 years ago i tried to get a gun and it took me three days. i decided not to get it, because i love my husband and i don't want to shoot him.

i need we need to get that straightened out which is the gun issue. guest: one of the challenges of understanding why murder when not been 2020 is we had this huge influx of gun sales at the start of the pandemic and i did a study with rob arthur that looked at tent cities, the share of traffic stops that involve the firearm. before this murder surge started you saw an increase in the share of incidents that had a firearm present the suggested the people were carrying firearms more often at the start of the pandemic. we have seen based on the fbi background checks and apparent decline in firearm sales. it is plausible that slowly,

this influx of fire arms is declining. it's not like we saw this influx of guns and then there were murderers. i am cognizant of the point but i'm not sure if that fully explains every thing regarding the trends we are seeing. host: what are the trends for mass shootings? guest: they make up a very small share of overall shootings but from data suggesting that the share of mass shootings is increasing. may be going from 3-4% of shooting victims in mass shootings to six-six .5%.

as we see shooting victims go down we are not seeing that for mass shootings. it is its own issue that requires its own expertise and own set of solutions. host: in minnesota, we have diane. good morning. caller: good morning. your guest started the show by saying crime is going down even though the perception is not there. i am always interested in how data is used. our president keeps saying that inflation is going down and the reason people are not buying it is because it was so high that is hardly noticeable. i would prefer in this case for the comparison to be made

between 2023 crime rates and 20 crime rates, before the pandemic and the george floyd riots and everything that happened as a result of that. i think those couple of years where the comparisons were extraordinary, i agreed that the media plays a big role in the way that we perceive the news. it's why you don't often watch the news because of that. i guess that is my suggestion or i would like to see data used in a little different way. host: we got it diane. guest: i talked about that with the previous color. with violent and property crime

lower than 2019 and the murder trends are slightly above that. i will reiterate that the gallup question is not whether crime is getting worse from 2019. i can barely remember 2019 this point. the gallup poll question was is crime getting better or worse relative to last year? that is what we are trying to answer the trend. a positive trend can be appreciated and you can build on that even if it's not better than it was 4, 5 years ago. i think the same argument can be made with inflation as well. host: on to texas, leonard as there. good morning. caller: good morning.

can i speak now with you? i've got a comment regarding the russian invasion of ukraine. host: ok, can we tie that back to crime in the united states? caller: i'm sorry i'm a little bit hard of hearing. i will have you call back when we discuss that topic. john, in texas. caller: we all know poll numbers and statistics and such are a result of who asked the question. i would like to know, where do mr. ascher and his organization get its funding?

is he connected to the democratic party? guest: my clients. i run a consulting company. i'm not associated with any political party and if you go back to september 2021 and i wrote on murder jumping up 20%, i got hammered by the left. just because something is politically inconvenient does it impact the trend. and if you go to our website we have a dashboard and for any city you could see the source. we don't make anything up, there is full transparency here. the point is to be able to describe the trend. it is an analytic exercise.

host: edward in flushing, new york. caller: hi, how are you? i am calling in reference to the gentleman on tv with the crime. host: yes. caller: i'm good friends with the chief detective and it depends on who is working and who is doing the job. everyone else has opinions, quotas, numbers and nothing gets done. i have cases in the supreme court, the whole thing.

he is just rehashing and doing nothing, never gets done. even if someone steals a pack of gum, they should be arrested. guest: i think you see that nationwide, you have different qualities of law enforcement based on where you are and he was working in the quality of the officers. i don't think that is inherently changed, the lack of uniformity of quality. i don't think that is responsible for the trend. host: john in arizona. caller: first i want to say you and the gentlemen are doing an excellent job. i never hear any stats on crimes against senior citizens. i think it is overwhelming, crime against senior citizens.

in the second question is what you think about a national police force? guest: to your first question, it's very difficult. it's difficult to do victimization data. it's something on an academic sense it is doable but it's very difficult for current urinalysis. the national police force is that policing is local. there are local conditions, you need to know the people on your streets and build community trust. we have seen when police legitimacy declines in community trust and policing goes away. keeping policing local in the

more they are connected with the community and the better they know the community the better the service is going to be. host: emma in raleigh, north carolina. good morning to you emma. caller: i am a big fan of c-span, i am probably one of the youngest fans. i even have a sweatshirt. i was really disappointed that the caller who called in, i am disappointed you didn't give them a chance to make a comment. i hope in the future if someone has a disability you will give them an opportunity to speak. host: it was more that he was not on topic, he wanted to talk about the invasion of ukraine. do you have a question or comment on that? caller: i think crime is definitely not good in raleigh

for sure. it's definitely not safe. caller: i hear callers from new york and california. the worst crimes are happening in those states. they never bring them to trial. people are crossing the border. they are all killing people. that is where the crime is coming into. people are being killed by the thousands. host: a related question, what are the numbers on drug-related crimes? gary and kentucky wants to guest: i am in louisiana, not

new york, california, and is led the nation in murder rates. the murder rate in new york city is a little less than 5 per 100,000. the murder rate in new orleans is north of 45 per 100,000. the murder rate in memphis was 55 per 100,000. lots of places with significant higher murder rates, lots of places with significantly higher crime rates than the big states. to your second question, drug-related crimes, very difficult to say. going back to the factor that violent crimes, you're talking about maybe a third get solved. murders, around half get solved. it is up to the police department to figure out what the motive there is. not only do police department have to figure out what the motive is, they have to

articulate that in the data. it makes it very difficult to say on a national scale what those figures might look like for any sort of crimes, unfortunately. host: for those of you interested in following this debate, you can go and find jeff asher's data at ahdatalytics.com. jeff is a cofounder of the company. thank you for your time. guest: thanks for having me. host: happening in washington today, the michigan supreme court last week rejected a challenge to keep donald trump off their 2024 primary ballot after colorado and maine removed the former president from their valid. this morning the michigan secretary of state jocelyn benson will talk about elections and democracy at an event hosted by the association of american law schools. live coverage right here on c-span.

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>> just waiting to hear from michigan secretary of state jocelyn benson. she is expected to talk about her career, democracy, and election security. this is part of the association of american law schools' annual meeting from washington, d.c. we will have more from their meeting later this afternoon when former solicitors general paul clement and donald verrilli talk about how political issues are decided at the supreme court. that will be live at 3:00 p.m. eastern on c-span. right now waiting to hear from the michigan secretary of state.