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c-spanshop.org. host: joining us this morning is jeff asher a crime analyst and consultant and cofounder of ah analytics. i want to read a headline from your website, crime in 2023, murder plummeted, property crime fell nationally. this is a contrast to three and four americans who believed crime rose this year. here is from nbc news, a look at homicides in major cities. in new york city 11% down. 13% down and chicago, down 11% in houston and the list goes on. in phoenix, philadelphia 21% and dallas also down 12%.

why is it that americans feel that crime rose but the numbers show a different story? guest: that's an excellent question. it's a complicated question. it's not so easy to point to one factor. the starting factor is that we don't have good crime data, timely crime data that would allow people to understand what the answer is. it is an answerable question, comment either went up or down. in the same way you can tell who won the world series or the super bowl. you can't really do that with crime. when we ask people whether the trends they rely on anecdotes because they lack solid data and when they rely on anecdotes it leads to misremembering, bias

toward anecdotes and unable to weigh what happened this year versus what happened last year. chris hayes on twitter mentioned the media does not cover the planes that land. there is never a story that says there was no robbery yesterday, there are only stories when they happen. you're asking people to take incomplete data and their memory of what they heard and make a judgment on whether or not something happened or did not happen. that makes it really difficult. and finally, 92% of republicans feel crime got worse last year. 58% of democrats which is still

a high percentage of democrats. it's not only partisan but is becoming a partisan issue rather than a factual issue. host: there is incomplete data and not timely data. how do you do your work? how do you get these numbers and how do you do your analysis? guest: for the murder data we keep a dashboard. it depends on how frequently they are updating. we have done the analysis to show that if you have 50 cities of data, you will mimic the national trend puppy off by three-5%. if you have 150 cities data, then you're talking about a 1-2

.5% miss. we are in a position to estimate the national trend with pretty good accuracy. in our 200 city sample murder is down 12.5%. if you put your margin of error between 10-14% you are safe in assuming we saw a double-digit decline in murder and murder does not go up and down much. it's usually about 3%. the largest one-year decrease is a 9% decrease in 1996. the largest increase was 30% in 2020. since see this kind of decrease is a historically large decrease on top of 2020, 2021.

host: what do you attribute to the decline? guest: again, a tough question. it's complicated. criminologists are not sure why murder declined in the 90's. to answer why this happened is still pretty early and analytic terms. the most compelling explanation is the pandemic faded in 2022 into the background and that removed a lot of stresses for most americans. covid-19 has not gone away but the relationship with the viruses change. it led to significantly less stress. it led to the types of philanthropic programming that

was put on hold. city and state government services and hiring started again. in a way they had not in 2020 and 2021. you can plausibly argue that police departments that were not able to police in certain ways were able to do things they were used to again. what we are seeing is a return to almost normal life and part of that is a decrease due to the pandemic. host: we are doing it by region so eastern (202) 748-8000, mountain pacific (202) 748-8001.

what is that like in your city what is your perception of crime in your city and around the country? do people always think crime is higher than it actually is? guest: it didn't used to be like this. in the 90's when the polling started, people were seeing that crime was going down, especially violent crime. crime is poorly defined. do you mean crime as major crimes that the fbi reports? do you mean violent crime? do you mean murder? which make a tiny slice of crime but takes on an outsized effect because it has the highest societal cost. in the 90's americans were good at it. when the level leveled off at

2000, it was hard to tell. given all the challenges, their bass response was that it went up. you started to see partisanship in 2000 under republican president democrats said that crime went up. and then it switched and the obama years and then switched again in the trump years. nothing like we have seen today where there is an enormous partisan gap. host: 55% believe that crime has gone up in their local area. what do you think of those numbers? guest: if murder goes down and

75% of cities, that doesn't mean it's happening everywhere. there are places like washington dc and memphis where you see big increases in crime, especially in murder and gun violence. for the most part, what we see with murder in the quarterly data which they released in december is that there was widespread decline. big cities, small cities, rural, suburban, everywhere is seeing a decline in crime except auto theft. the feeling of crime going up or down has been the paramount motivator and answering that type of question. i would love to see the question better defined. i would love to see a better

understanding of where people are when they are answering. some of those people will be right but based on the preliminary data are going to be wrong. host: pat in camden, new jersey. good morning. caller: good morning, good morning america. i live near philadelphia. i lived in camden, new jersey during the crack error that had many problems. my understanding is that police need to submit their stats, is that happening? every day, every local news channel shows everything a black boy does wrong.

i just retired last year and i'm very interested in how we can make our inner city safe. host: alright pat, we will let you it's at the door. guest: i was say the police department does report crime so the figures we are talking about come from the officially reported crime statistics. there is a separate survey which shows the share of crimes that are unreported and helps to deal with that. we know that crime is underreported. we know certain crimes, especially sex offenses, property crimes are more systemically underreported. what we are relying on here is police reported crime but were talking about murder and homicide.

murder and homicide, yeah you will probably have a couple that are not properly reported. but we should be getting nearly 100% reporting on those types of incidents. measuring our trend using. means we are not worrying about underreporting, getting better, worse or whether police are properly reporting shoplifting incidents. we are talking about the heinous tragedy of murder which gives us a lot more confidence from a data perspective that the figures we are talking about is accurate. host: mike in brooklyn. caller: hi, good morning. with illegal immigrants, in brooklyn if you walk out

with the necklace her earrings and you're not watching out closely, you will get ripped off by an illegal immigrant. every time they get a call about ripping off the jewelry you get redirected. host: how do you know they are illegal immigrants? caller: because i talk to them. they say they are coming in from the cartels. host: you are speaking to the people committing these crimes? caller: the people at the shelter. what is the trend there. host: let's take up this question because there's an association between crime and illegal immigrants, do you have statistics? guest: it's difficult especially

with property crimes, with there being a 20% clearance rate. it's difficult to say the nature of perpetrators across the board. when we talk about murder, the vast majority are not illegal immigrants. i live in new orleans and i'm not familiar with this single victim or perpetrator that was an illegal immigrant in new orleans. there were a lot of american citizens that were victims or perpetrators. i think the numbers being reported by police should not be

affected by the arrest status of the perpetrator. host: david in deerfield, illinois. caller: good morning. i think the statistics are questionable because i live outside of chicago and you have to look at the number of arrests, convictions. if we are not arresting and convicting people they never get into statistics. i think those numbers are lower than they were five years ago. if we are not convicting people, i would assume they're not getting into the final statistics.

to say that things are better is something not a lot of people in chicago would agree with and it's more from everyday life then looking at statistics. people watching smash and grabs and normals and half the story in the main shopping district are gone. they are closed down and gone. carjackings all the time. our wonderful governor approved no bail release of criminals. then you look back at the summer during covid where there was general lawlessness, no arrests being made. the laws were not even being enforced. host: we will take your

comments. guest: two your first comment, the status of the arrest or prosecution has no effect on whether the police department reports numbers. if the theft is reported to the police, they report the figures regardless of what happens after the events occurred. from a statistical standpoint whether or not arrests are being made are prosecutors have prosecuted them it's not important for statistical purposes. with your second comment, a 10-15% decline a murderous great. 600 murders in chicago is not good. i would argue that one can acknowledge a positive trend while still acknowledging that

the problem exists and there is a lot of work to get to the point where things are acceptable. even in 2014 where the u.s. reported the lowest murder rates it has ever reported, one could still argue that the murder rate was still too high and we still had work to do. just because the trend is positive people should not be except that is the final trend or things are perfect. and you answered the question of why do people think crime is up? you have the expansion of viral videos that things like tiktok with the expansion to access to social media where you can see a viral smash and grab a destroyer. you can see a beating on the subway and that will impact your impression of what is happening

citywide in a way that 10, 15 years ago your impression would have not been impacted. the expansion of access to anecdotal or viral videos is making it so it's hard to understand the trend. host: a viewer says, my lol home depot locked up the items on three aisles, is that a sign of decreasing crime? guest: it could be a sign that they take shoplifting seriously. it could be a sign -- i don't think it's related to crime necessarily. it's not a relative to the trends or the degree to which the company is taking product loss more seriously. in a way that they may not have before. especially with shoplif

ting and retail theft we go by anecdote given the data quality challenges of the crime without more info on where the store is in what the trend is, you can't say whether or not crime is going up or down. host: eric and ocean county, new jersey. caller: yes, i take exception with some of your comments regarding the comparison from this year to last year. what i would like to see is give us an average crime rate for the years 2017-2019. mark twain had something humorous about statistics.

you seem to be emphasizing perception. counterbalancing that is the fact that crimes involving shoplifting, $900 or less are not even crimes anymore. so statistics could not be including anything we would deem as shoplifting. my final comment as i would love to see a study about crime rates in philadelphia, chicago and new york under the latest district attorneys and the crime recidivism taking place. guest: if you take crime big picture, the violent crime rate was lower than it was in 2017, 2019. in those file in 2021.

that was because there was less people out so there was less shoplifting. the 2023 figures that we have preliminary data on, if the data is correct, we would see lower crime numbers then in 2017-2019. the official figure of the violent crime rate might drop the lowest since the 1960's. the murder rate is still higher than it was in 2019 but has come down significantly from where it was in 2020, 2021 but is likely higher.

what we are talking about is the trend and we can be encouraged by the trend and no the decline in murder was historic relative to previous years while acknowledging it is not good enough if it was odd or below the 2019 level in you're still talking about memphis and washington dc where there still exists the countertrend. i'm not trying to say everything is rosy but we can acknowledge the data and if we talk about the gallup poll which people say that it is getting worse, it's wrong. even though that it is not perfect, it is improving. host: here's another comment,

south bend, indiana is the mt dangerous city in indiana. thleership is extremely liberal and any connection tween crime and political leadership? guest: as far as we know, not that i'm aware of. i don't have the crime rates of indiana towns off the top of my head. i will say from the quarterly numbers we have from the fbi, finally crime in rural counties are down 8.3 percent, suburban counties down 6%, cities a million or over are down. property crime you see the exact same trends, down 17% in rural counties, 6% in suburban counties.

one difference you are seeing is auto theft in bigger cities is surging in a way that it is not in small towns and counties and that is due to the ease in which kia's and hyundais have become stealable. in cities, there has been a 12-13% decline. it's not just big cities run by democratic mayors. it's not just red states or blue states. the trend we see is nationwide. i'm looking forward to having more data, i'm looking forward to the fourth quarter data and completing the murder picture for this year. but everything we have preliminarily shows a widespread

decline. host: where can people follow you and your company in these numbers? do you report them? guest: we have a year to date murder dashboard age data latex.com. find the dashboard. i am on sub stock that i try to contribute weekly based on how well my kids have behaved. where some of that analysis visited. the point of the dashboard is to write as much broad data as possible and what it means and applies for national trends because the whole goal is to understand what is happening nationally. host: we have eddie in florida.

good morning, is it eddie? caller: it is letty. i have a thing to say about fox news, they do a loop of smash and grab us. with the murder rate, the first thing we need to talk about cosby guns. about 15 years ago i tried to get a gun and it took me three days. i decided not to get it, because i love my husband and i don't want to shoot him. i need we need to get that straightened out which is the gun issue. guest: one of the challenges of understanding why murder when not been 2020 is we had this

huge influx of gun sales at the start of the pandemic and i did a study with rob arthur that looked at tent cities, the share of traffic stops that involve the firearm. before this murder surge started you saw an increase in the share of incidents that had a firearm present the suggested the people were carrying firearms more often at the start of the pandemic. we have seen based on the fbi background checks and apparent decline in firearm sales. it is plausible that slowly, this influx of fire arms is declining. it's not like we saw this influx of guns and then there were murderers.

i am cognizant of the point but i'm not sure if that fully explains every thing regarding the trends we are seeing. host: what are the trends for mass shootings? guest: they make up a very small share of overall shootings but from data suggesting that the share of mass shootings is increasing. may be going from 3-4% of shooting victims in mass shootings to six-six .5%. as we see shooting victims go down we are not seeing that for mass shootings. it is its own issue that

requires its own expertise and own set of solutions. host: in minnesota, we have diane. good morning. caller: good morning. your guest started the show by saying crime is going down even though the perception is not there. i am always interested in how data is used. our president keeps saying that inflation is going down and the reason people are not buying it is because it was so high that is hardly noticeable. i would prefer in this case for the comparison to be made between 2023 crime rates and 20 crime rates, before the pandemic and the george floyd riots and everything that happened as a result of that. i think those couple of years

where the comparisons were extraordinary, i agreed that the media plays a big role in the way that we perceive the news. it's why you don't often watch the news because of that. i guess that is my suggestion or i would like to see data used in a little different way. host: we got it diane. guest: i talked about that with the previous color. with violent and property crime lower than 2019 and the murder trends are slightly above that. i will reiterate that the gallup question is not whether crime is getting worse from 2019.

i can barely remember 2019 this point. the gallup poll question was is crime getting better or worse relative to last year? that is what we are trying to answer the trend. a positive trend can be appreciated and you can build on that even if it's not better than it was 4, 5 years ago. i think the same argument can be made with inflation as well. host: on to texas, leonard as there. good morning. caller: good morning. can i speak now with you? i've got a comment regarding the russian invasion of ukraine. host: ok, can we tie that back

to crime in the united states? caller: i'm sorry i'm a little bit hard of hearing. i will have you call back when we discuss that topic. john, in texas. caller: we all know poll numbers and statistics and such are a result of who asked the question. i would like to know, where do mr. ascher and his organization get its funding? is he connected to the democratic party? guest: my clients. i run a consulting company. i'm not associated with any political party and if you go

back to september 2021 and i wrote on murder jumping up 20%, i got hammered by the left. just because something is politically inconvenient does it impact the trend. and if you go to our website we have a dashboard and for any city you could see the source. we don't make anything up, there is full transparency here. the point is to be able to describe the trend. it is an analytic exercise. host: edward in flushing, new york. caller: hi, how are you? i am calling in reference to the gentleman on tv with the crime. host: yes. caller: i'm good friends with

the chief detective and it depends on who is working and who is doing the job. everyone else has opinions, quotas, numbers and nothing gets done. i have cases in the supreme court, the whole thing. he is just rehashing and doing nothing, never gets done. even if someone steals a pack of gum, they should be arrested.

guest: i think you see that nationwide, you have different qualities of law enforcement based on where you are and he was working in the quality of the officers. i don't think that is inherently changed, the lack of uniformity of quality. i don't think that is responsible for the trend. host: john in arizona. caller: first i want to say you and the gentlemen are doing an excellent job. i never hear any stats on crimes against senior citizens. i think it is overwhelming, crime against senior citizens. in the second question is what you think about a national police force? guest: to your first question, it's very difficult.

it's difficult to do victimization data. it's something on an academic sense it is doable but it's very difficult for current urinalysis. the national police force is that policing is local. there are local conditions, you need to know the people on your streets and build community trust. we have seen when police legitimacy declines in community trust and policing goes away. keeping policing local in the more they are connected with the community and the better they know the community the better the service is going to be. host: emma in raleigh, north carolina. good morning to you emma. caller: i am a big fan of

c-span, i am probably one of the youngest fans. i even have a sweatshirt. i was really disappointed that the caller who called in, i am disappointed you didn't give them a chance to make a comment. i hope in the future if someone has a disability you will give them an opportunity to speak. host: it was more that he was not on topic, he wanted to talk about the invasion of ukraine. do you have a question or comment on that? caller: i think crime is definitely not good in raleigh for sure. it's definitely not safe. caller: i hear callers from new

york and california. the worst crimes are happening in those states. they never bring them to trial. people are crossing the border. they are all killing people. that is where the crime is coming into. people are being killed by the thousands. host: a related question, what are the numbers on drug-related crimes? gary and kentucky wants to guest: i am in louisiana, not new york, california, and is led the nation in murder rates. the murder rate in new york city is a little less than 5 per

100,000. the murder rate in new orleans is north of 45 per 100,000. the murder rate in memphis was 55 per 100,000. lots of places with significant higher murder rates, lots of places with significantly higher crime rates than the big states. to your second question, drug-related crimes, very difficult to say. going back to the factor that violent crimes, you're talking about maybe a third get solved. murders, around half get solved. it is up to the police department to figure out what the motive there is. not only do police department have to figure out what the motive is, they have to articulate that in the data. it makes it very difficult to say on a national scale what those figures might look like for any sort of crimes, unfortunately. host: for those of you

interested in following this debate, you can go and find jeff asher's data at ahdatalytics.com. jeff is a >> we will have more from the association of american loss was afternoon when the number you sorcerer general wrote about how political issues are argued and that of others in court, live at 3:00 p.m. eastern here on him. >> therein school shooting in. , iowa, to follow enforcement officials saying the shooting has died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. three others including two students and anniversary were injured in today's shooting, officials say. congressman zach nunn represents .

has released a statement this in part, "as a parent and community member, i am beyond angry. i remain in touch with first responders and local leaders. will not rest until there is full accountability for this heinous act of violence." ♪ >> c-span is your unfiltered view of government, funded by these television companies and more, including cox. >> koolen-de vries, is extremely rare. >> hi. >> but friends don't have to be. >> this is joe. >> [clk ticking] support c-span as a public service along with these other television providers you a front-row seat to the market. >> friday nights, what else 2024

campaign trail, a weekly round of expense campaign coverage, providing a one-stop-shop to discover where the candidates are traveling across the country, and what they are saying to voters. this, along with first-hand accounts from political reporters, updated poll numbers, fundraising data, and campaign ads. watch c-span's "2024 campaign trail," starting friday, at 7:00 eastern on c-span, online at c-span.org, or download as a podcast on c-span now, our free mobile app, or wherever you get your podcasts. c-span, your unfiltered view of politics. next, treasury secretary janet yellen gives remarks about nation and the economy. secretary yellen also discusses relations with china, interest rates, fiscal policy, and what she describes as a soft landing for the economy. the conversation took place during the wall street journal ceo summit. >> let's start with the let's se inflation report that just came out.