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c-span, your unfiltered view of government. >> if you ever miss any of c-span's coverage you can find it anytime online at c-span.org. videos of key hearings, debates, and other events future markers that guide you to interesting and newsworthy highlights. these points of interest markers appear on the right-hand side of your screen when you hit play on select videos. this timeline to a makes it easy to get an idea of what was debated and decided in washington. scroll through and spend a few minutes on c-span's points of interest. washington journal continues. host: we are joined by jim antle of the washington examiner. he is the executive editor. thank you for your time. you go to the website it talks about the events of last night. iowa puts pressure, showing they

can compete. what is in store for the rivals at this point? guest: we've yet to establish we've entered the competitive phase of this race. the earliest parts of the race are when it ought to be most competitive. when you get in the early stage you are competing in fewer media markets, it's much easier for lower tiered candidates to invest resources. you can compete with the front runner on something much more approaching even terms. when you get out to super tuesday you have to campaign in multiple states at once, multiple media markets. it gets difficult. and name id becomes much more important. new hampshire would seem to be the place where trump rivals, particularly nikki haley have the best opportunity to really change this up and to see that we have a competitive race.

nomination. so it's not exactly a coronation. host: nikki haley talked about a two-person race heading into new hampshire. guest: it is complicated by the fact she ran third. there's a second person in the race besides her and president trump who finished second in the iowa caucuses. she is right to that based on public polling she appears to be much better positioned in the upcoming states, she is running second in new hampshire. independents can vote in the new hampshire primary. much more moderate, more centrist than iowa caucus-goers tend to be which is a more socially conservative, more evangelical voting base. haley has perhaps a better shot in new hampshire, that's the place where trump is paul -- polling below for 50% and were

candidate similar to haley have done well in the past. south carolina is where the next primary will be. she is pretty clearly in second place. she will have a month to capitalize on the momentum she can get out of new hampshire so if she is able to upset trump in new hampshire that would make the race look different. the likelihood would be -- oddly enough given the george w. bush was donald trump's least favorite republican president, it will look an awful lot like bush. you beat a more conservative candidate in iowa, maybe lose to someone in new hampshire. bush lost to john mccain and trump could lose potentially to nikki haley and then you try to crush this rebellion in south carolina as bush did with mccain. haley is hoping for a different outcome.

host: it is reported heading to south carolina. what could the strategy be there? guest: it's a more conservative state the new hampshire. it's a close primary. i could see he thinks there's may be more receptive audience. he has not been polling very well in new hampshire. he has been behind in most polls. chris christie who has already dropped out of the race. things were not looking very good in new hampshire even though he got a lot of conservative activists support in the state early on. maybe he is looking ahead. he might also be looking to slice into nikki haley's momentum. that becomes a dynamic in the race that i think has benefited the former president trump is that you have his two main opponents really have a lot of incentive to go after each other rather than him and as long as

they are competing for second place it becomes easier for him to hold onto first briton -- onto first. there's going to be a big sort of expectations game, setting coming out of vaio up. on the one hand and i think this is true. if you look at his margin of victory, 30 points, biggest ever in a competitive iowa caucus, more than double the previous record that was set in 1988. nobody gets better than a little over 20% of the vote against him. you whittle the field down to the three best funded, best organized candidates, highest quality candidates. to me that was a pretty commanding win. ■■ñthe counterargument to that s

49% of iowa caucus-goers still picked an option other than former president trump. and if you are running against trump that's what you are holding onto. i happen to think if you look most of that vivek vote would've gone to trump. a good bit of desantis would have gone to trump. you could argue there's a good 80% of the iowa caucus voting to trump like candidates. it still shows there is some appetite for a candidate not named trump. and if you are nikki haley or ron desantis, your hope is you can builon that. >> are guest with us till 8:45. if you want to ask questions about the iowa results and as we head towards new hampshire, 202-748-8000 for democrats, 202-748-8001 for republicans. independents, 202-748-8002. if you want to text us your

thoughts you can do so at 202-748-8003. for now the starting nomination process is underway, how do you think the biden campaign looks at the start and what goes on? guest: i think president biden's campaign months ago arrived at the conclusion that they are most likely facing a rematch with trump. they were briefly sort of doing this thing where they were hitting trump and hitting ron desantis. they were trying to brand ron desantis in such a way that most of the trump playbook would also work against him. i think it gets more complicated if the nominee were to be nikki haley although i think they have given some thought to tt and have tried to frame her as a maga candidate but i think they are expecting to run against trump. they are training most of their fire against trump and most of their talk about democracy being

on the ballot in november, that is strongest if you are running against trump. i think it becomes a bit more difficult to play this playbook against candidates that do not have any real meaningful connection to january 6 or any of those events. i think the biden campaign knows ways to beat it because they have beat him once before but i don't think they are as complacent as hillary clinton's team was. they realize in the battleground states of 2020 the election was much closer than it was nationally. the public polling and some of the private campaign polling shows this election could be even closer. so the possibility of a trump win is not something i think most of biden's people dismiss out of hand. host: the repeated trips to

pennsylvania as far as votes. guest: absolutely paired they've gone to pennsylvania, wisconsin. i think they are worried about michigan. if you look at the president travel schedule promoting administration initiatives and also campaigning for other democrats, very much looks like they are looking at the state where this race is really going to be decided in november. host: when you look at polling, things about his age or the economy, are those real factors or is it too early on to determine who will vote for the president in the end? guest: historically speaking it is still pretty early for these polls to have predictive value. in terms of who is going to win or lose. i do think the fact that some of these things have been consistent across months and in

some areas getting worse should be a real sign of concern and how baked in everything has seemed so if you look the 41 year high inflation only marginally affected the midterm election. in previous years that could have had a bigger impact. you saw fairly small swings in the battleground states of 2020 after this huge pandemic, massive economic disruption, relatively narrow shift, certainly sufficient to make joe biden president and donald trump the former president but nevertheless not a massive shift. a recession in which the economy contracted by 1% had been over for over a year by the time the election happened was enough for george bush to lose 16 points 1988 and 1992.

i think when we are looking at how much polarization is baked in. everybody has got their 40% locked in. almost no matter what happens. if you see some of these lower propensity democratic voters, swing voters, still feeling the cost of living is too high. in some cases may be the dislike the vote swinging back to trump. i think there's some real cause for concern even though it would be premature. host: the washington examiner's jim antle with us. kansas, democrats line, you're on with our guest. good morning. caller: thank you. i have a statement and then a question. --

my question donald trump stated last night that it was the third time he had won the iowa caucus. did he win the iowa caucus three times? guest: he lost the iowa caucuses in 2016. there was not a competitive caucus in 2020 or particularly nominating process that year, he faced no major opponents. he has carried iowa twice in the general election and this was his first caucus win. host: from vincent in oklahoma. republican line good morning. ca: james, i have a question for you. guest: yes sir. caller: is it going -- will the

to keep him off the ballot? guest: my view is that will likely be overturned. it will certainly be heard by the supreme court. there are a lot of issues with both trump personally and with the 2024 election that may end up being adjudicated all the way to the supreme court. that's going to be an important one. i think what happens with mainee important because that is a state where trump could win at least one electoral vote. he's carried that congressional district, maine is one of two states that allocates electoral votes by congressional district. winning in both 2016 and 2020. some polling indicates seem could indicate -- win statewide. if blue states get trump off the ballot i am of the view that this is unlikely to hold when it gets to the supreme court. but if it ballot that

does not particularly affect his ability to win the general election because winni sby one n votes, or getting zero votes doesn't make much difference in terms of if you get the states elecrayou lose a state you don't any of their votes with the exception of nebraska and maine. so trump wasn't likely to win e was going to win colorado there is not much chance of president biden being reelected. what canecoma lem is exclude trump from the ballot. obviously the trump campaign and s ght very hard legally to prevent anything like that from happening. host: the former president will be in court today with e. jean carroll. other things concerning the legal matters of the former president. what's the best way to think of

why this has not been a drag on his campaign? guest: 's truly remarkable. when you set the contrast with senator bob menendez of new jersey whose -- the reaction to senator menendez being indicted, this is the second time, they did circle the wagons at first but this time around the reaction has been what you would expect the reaction to a politician being indicted to be, people look like they are trying to run him out of office. leading the charge to run him out of office are members of his own party. yet that has not been the case of former president trump. in fact his polling numbers by most measures have improved since he's faced multiple indictments. i think trumpskillful in makings the republican party's problems. on a practical level in that a lot of the money that would be going to republican campaigns is going to legal bills. the broader sense of they will

be coming after you, they are coming after me because i'm the only thing standing between you and them. we have a two-tiered system of justice, weaponization of the criminal justice system against conservatives and republicans. and also republican voters there is just this pile on and it is to some degree unfair. this seems to actually make people want to nominate him even more despite all of the obvious risks of having a multi-indicted candidate 8 -- as your general election nominee. trump has been able to take this and turn it to his advantage. he's also been le to make his -- he does not have to go to a lot of these trials, he is choosing to do this. he's made some of these courtroom appearances campaign appearances. that was a concern when these legal cases began is this would take him away from the campaign trail.

but it has in the physical in that it has made him a little bit less obvious on the ground in places like iowa and new hampshire. but it keeps him out front all the time and it keeps him going out making his argument. press conferences after these courtroom appearances are effectively the rallies of 2024 and so far that's worked. host: jim antle on this conversation. 202-748-8000 for democrats, republicans 202-748-8001. independents, 202-748-8002. independent line from connecticut. you are on with our guest, good morning. caller: i had a question. do you think people are voting more ideologically pockets? i know trump voters who hate go my 401(k) did well when he

was in office. how do you think -- i only know a small sample size. guest: i think when you get to the national electorate, if trump gets back in the white house it's going to be the g on their pocketbook and voting on the idea that we thought we would get things more back to normal if we got rid of trump, that has not happened. those would be the decisive voters. there are enough voters who feel that way, trump can win a second term. in the republican primary i think it's a bit more diverse than that as a motivation. ■ói think he has a core base wih which he has a small emotional connection is the only politicar in america who represents or understands them.

and then yes i■z t voting because they view him as a conservative and others because he is not quite a traditional conventional conservative. they are drawn to this populism and some of the issues in which he deviates from the standard playbook of the last 30 years. when you put that together of it so far has gotten him a■sí majoy and so it's up to ron desantis and nikki haley to demonstrate there are enough republicans left reject all of those things or reject enough of those things that you could have a competitive race. host: it was only -- the economy, a 50 2% of those supporting the former president put immigration top that list. guest: immigration has always been a huge issue with trump. it was a big issue in 2016 and how he got himself to the right]

of candidates like marco rubio, who otherwise would've had a record of more association with various conservative viewpoints before trump became president. obviously talk about curtailing immigration into the united states was a very hot issue. for trump in 2016. build the wall was a huge issue for trump in 2016. ron desantis in particular has tried to campaign on the basis of some of these immigration related campaign promises in particular either were not complete or did not fully materialize making the argument that he would be more effective at implementing the trump agenda than trump himself was. in the really early voting's of this race about a year ago it did seem like that argument was making some headway.

but in recent months seeing -- things have seemed to swing in opposite directions. >> nelson joins us from florida. with our guest good morning. >> can you hear me ok? >> there's about donald trump which is perfectly understandable. i would like to talk about joe biden who has shown himself to be a complete disaster as far as the presidency is concerned. particular concern about joe biden more than anything is this very clear deteriorating health. is there anybody in the democratic party who really is concerned or should be concerned out mr. biden's deteriorating health including his wife who seems to be covering for him and

why can't the democratic party, up with a candidate who can go against joe biden in the primaries, a candidate that would have some real credibility and someone that would give an alternative for the american people in addition to donald trump as an alternative, the other candidates primary candidates on the republican side who i think would also make good presidents. guest: i think the dilemma for the democrats in this area, there are some democrats that are pretty concerned about president biden's age. if you look at polling, democrats age 30 and under in particular don't want him to be the nominee and his age is a major reason for that. but among even leading democrats, david axelrod -talkir

to 90 than 80 in the end of the second term. you could suspect axelrod is familiar with obama's thinking on this subject. the dilemma for democrats primary challenges against sitting presidents have tended to fail and they have not left y particularly in a strong position in the general election so they tend to hurt or perceived to the -- the nominee and the general. it could be the case that its weaker incumbents who attract primary challengers in the first place so the causation might not be what it is. but nevertheless, going back to 1968 which was a time where one was -- democrats lost that election. jimmy carter lost the election

in 1980 after ted kennedy tried to primary him. even the pat buchanan challenge against george bush was followed by the 1992 general election loss. democrats i think for the most part gave it their best shot, look at all the younger candidates who lost a biden in the 2020 primary many of whom dropped out in 2019. they think biden may be their best bet but are they nervous about it? host: danny, democrats line in orlando, go ahead. caller: i would just like to say -- i would like to ask a question. i'm a vietnam era vet. never in my life did i think i would see our country bow down to somebody that solly

incorrect about anything and they go along with anything that he does. i want to say this. ever since letitia james and the black lady judge, all of these people prosecuting donald trump, they turned the tide where nobody black can prosecute him. they turn the tides saying things are going well. they feel like he's above all black people. so he's above the law. guest: the corollary to trump having this big passionate following is he also has a very big passionate group of people who don't like him at all. and his favorability ratings are

low, underwater for most of this time in national political life. if he is the nominee he will once again expect a very polarize%md electorate. the electorate was polarized when your have people like barack obama and george w. bush who i think were not actively to polarize the electorate but nevertheless polarize the people's opinion, but donald trump is actively playing into the polarization. it's a big part of his political strategy. it has kept him around but it's also been a dangerous way to live politically. >> when it comes to governor desantis or nikki haley, what faces their campaigns when it comes to funding issues and the like versus former president trump's? >> in iowa ron desantis arguably

has the best ground operation. but that still yielded a 30.2 feet. he did beat nikki haley for second place but not by much. i think governor desantis will have to demonstrate if he could not win their, where is he going to win going forward. i think he has an argument to make that he would be better situated in a two-person race against former president trump than nikki haley. doesn't have as clear a path as to how he will get there as nikki haley now does. i think that's his biggest challenge. i think for governor haley it will be can you sort of actualize this potential victory in new hampshire. a big problem for desantis as

they are going for strong theories as to why he would have various success but none of these theories have worked out in practice. i think she's going to have to demonstrate that she doesn't have a similar version of the problem. can she first winew hashire. a state that is much more tailor-made for more tailor-made for her to compete in than iowa was? and can she keep the momentum going? i think for right now she is not going to have a problem with donors. donors may even flocked to her with the perception that she is the last gal standing against the former president. she is going to ha hampshire ant she can win at home. she has to win this one away game and one home game. she can do that i think she will have to resources to keep going forward through super tuesday. if she can't, trump is going to start to look inevitable. host:■ in new hampshire what

constituencies does she already have? who does she have to reach out to? guest: i think there is a higher percentage of republicans in the state of new hampshire who are willing to move on from trump. even among new hampshire have a never-trump majority, but you're starting with a much higher base of maybef the primary electorate is willing to consider that. without a competitive primary on the democratic side -- you know, joe biden is running a writing campaign because the dnc chose south carolina as their first primary state. independence -- independents will want to vote in the primary because that is the competitive game in town. ■5nikki haley could potentially win those votes, and independents are a big part of how john mccain won the primary against bush, and then 2008 the

year he won the nomination. those of two core groups. -- those are two core groups. the oblem she and the santas have had, and everyone who has tried to run for the nomination this year, other than trump is, how do you run against trump without pitting yourself against the republican base? if you don't run against trump people say, -- if yoare trump, why not vote for the real thing? if you are too anti-trump, people perceive it as anti-republican. able to use that to great effect. somebody's going to have to find a way around that. you're seeing nikki haley lean into the generational change argument, and the idea that biden and trump collectively are both more of the same, and she is something different. host: jim antle of the washington examiner joining us for this conversation. that's here from an higher one -- an iowan.

as is bonnie. caller: want to talk about two things that impacted the results last night. the first is obviously the weather. at my location the turnout was way below what we would have expected, and that makes sense on a weekend when schools were closed friday and monday and churches were closed on sunday. quite simply, a lot of people chose not to brave that cold weather. that is unfortunate and that makes a difference. second, my caucus location did in fact choose ron desantis narrowly over president trump, but also in 2016 when there was a contested caucus we did not choose president trump either. it is an interesting observation. my question is, what do you think about the debacle 2020, which allowed democrats to choose not to meet in person last night, and therefore a number of them, as i observed,

came in registered republican for one night so they could vote in our caucus? it is much easier to do in new hampshire, in effect, for people who are functionally democrats or swing voters to dissipate in the republican primary. much of that which happened in iowa, did happen to the benefit of nikki haley. that is something nikki haley may be counting on in newire. he saw a dynamic last night where a lot of the ted cruz vote from 2016 went to ron desantis. a lot of the marco rubio vote went to nikki haley. trump capped the trump boat, but trump picked up, relatively speaking, because curz -- cruz beat him in the 2016 caucus.

the weather was a big impact. now, trump's voters skewed older , so you would think were goingo be deterred it would have been his. that doesn't seem to be the case. i have no doubt it had some impact, because turnout was definitely down. and the concern, i think, republicans in general should have, and republicans running against trump is, is that purely the weather? it certainly was cold. or have republicans started to check out of this race? if it is the latter that has to be concerning for nikki haley. host: the post highlights the fact that when it comes to former president trump's campaign they had 18 caucus captains, one for every side. -- site. guest: they did a much better

job organizing than they did in 2016, and, you know, their ground game was actually pretty good. now, i think their task was a little easier than desantis', in that they had lots of supporters, so they just had to identify them and get them out. desantis' mobilization was really court to any chance they had of a strong showing in the caucus, but nevertheless i think in general this has been a fairly professional trump campaign. obviously you still have an unconventional character who is the candidate, but i think they have done a very good job of just very basic political infrastructure things. and they have found the sweet spot -- might be hard to do in a general election -- but they have found the sweet spot where trump isso

that he sucks all of the oxygen out of the room for other candidates, not as over-exposed as he was in 20 and much of 2016. and that has limited gaffs, controversies, and unforced errors, while keeping a lot of trump's heard media advantages. host: alex in california, independent line. caller: i have two closely-related questions. trump end up being on the tickets for their respective parties, among republicans who do not want to trump what percentage of them do you think will be willing to vote for a presidential ticket from a third party like the no labels party? in the second question is, among democrats who do not want biden, what percentage of them wldpresd party like no labels?

guest: that is sort of the $6 trillion question of the whole race. if you have god viable third party cap -- if you have got third party candidates. we have cornell west. but if no labels is able to field a centrist ticket, what would that mean for the general election? and absolutely there are some republicans who dislike former president who would vote for that ticket, and absolutely some democrats would vote for it. democrats, third parties are concerned about this. because if you have does set up the potential for the biggest third-party vote since ross perot in 1992. the best conditions for that, at least. both parties are concerned about it, but i think democrats are a

little more concerned about it, in that they fear if the ticket draws centrist and liberal votes and suburban republicans who do not like t that would probably be to their detriment and allow trump to consolidate populist and conservative support at around 40% to 46% of the electorate. and if he can hold onto his base a little bit better than biden can hold onto his, that would be concerning for them. host: the name consistently on that front is joe manchin. guest: has been a major player in biden's first term. he has often decided whether legislation succeeded or failed. been a linchpin for the democratic senate majority. he is retiring, likely ceding his senate to a republican.

joe manchin, should he want to, does have it within his power potentially to deny bidea second term. now, joe manchin does seem to like some of the attention that goes wital he will actually do this. host: he keeps saying he doesn't want to be a spoiler. guest: any third-party candidato is really be a spoiler. we hno elected one in modern political history. ross perot has come the closest. popular vote-wise, he was still pretty falloff -- far off. george wallace, closest electorausually your potential o spoil. but 30 years later we are still debating whether ross perot helped bush or clinton more.

who you are spoiling for is not unambiguously clear either. mas, republican line. good morning. caller: good morning. great to talk to you this morning. one quick thing to everybody in america, from last night, just to show whether you like it or not the amount trump won, 98 out of 99 counties. and the 99th county he only lost by one vote. so, my question for james is, earlier you said the fact that trump is under indictment is some sort of a detriment, or is going to be difficult for him to run, or are you trying to say that he should not run or should not be allowed to run?

could you be very specific about that, please? guest: sure. i think, historically speaking, being indicted is a political liability. that has not been the case in the republican primaries. it has clearly worked to trump's benefit, because most republican voters see the legal cases against him as politically-motivated. not as clear that that will be true in the genal pulling -- polling pretty competitively. it simbes a practical difficulty. it is up to the primary voters' judgment of whether they think it is worth the risk or not. but there are certain risks involved in that. one, he is going to have to spend some of his time in courtd otherwise go toward winning the

election will go toward paying lawyers. so, his election will become a more resource-intensive effort, potentially, at the expense of down ballot republicans, if not at his own expense. and, three, if he is convicted, availability, potentially, even to govern. now, most republicans have signaled they are will roll the dice on this. and maybe they will be right to do so. it will be a winning bet. but those are certainly, as you are considering who to vote for, factors might want to consider. host: is anybody considering a plan b should he become convicted on one of these many friends and is unable to complete the task of making it to the november contest? guest: certainly. even in 2016 when people were

simply wanting to remove him there were all kinds of machinations for what a plan b would be. i think the difficulty of any plan b would be, do you think trump is going to cooperate with any plan b? a caller earlier engine that if trump lost the nomination, there a chanc not be particularly helpful to the eventual nominee, would allege all kinds of irregularities in the voting process, might make it tough for somebody else to win. but, yes, i think they will start with looking at all of the contge that are involved should a candidate die, and whether any of those would apply toavailable in other sets of circumstances. now, technically speaking there is nothing that would prevent him from serving if he did face

one of these convictions, but it would be, certainly, challenging. host: let's get one more call in. this is richard in kansas. independent line. ahead, please. caller: i would like to say i was pretty much a democrat my entire life until trump ran. now, i did vote for reagan, but that is the only republican i have ever voted for f anything. i voted for obama the first time, but not the second. what my question is going to be is, you guys keep saying that biden's age. you keep bringing up biden's age. it is not about age. it is about his mental capacity. actually, in my opinion, dishonesty keep talking about his age. it is not is what is going on in his head. i don't know if you guys come out here and ever talk to real

people. i have nev a factory talking to people coming out of a factory. i ran a business in seven states. in the midwest, here. i basically dealt with upper bracket people, because the thg we sold was hundreds of thousands of dollars. i think you come out here and talk to people. you out, we are not on trump's side, he is on our side. he speaks for us the way we feel about things. we know that this administrative bureaucracy are covering up a lot of things that are going on in the world that are bad, and that we do not really want to be involved with. host: i apologize, caller. we are running out of time. guest: definitely. this is going to become a big part of trump's argument should he be the nominee, because he is

only a few years younger than biden would -- biden. the reason people are more concerned about biden's age rather than trump's age is the perceived mental acuity issue. but, now, clearly this is and there are democratic voters who really do think about this purely in age terms, for generational reasons. israel and the hamas war right now. people of biden's generation, people who are in their 20's and 30's do not hold those views. so, there is a pure age factor, and then there is the perception of whether biden is physically and mentally up to the task of being president. people do have some of those concerns about trump