washington journal continues. ■+

host: welcome back. we are joined by weifeng zhong, a senior research fellow at the mercatus center. thank you for coming out in the weather. so taiwan recently had a new election, can you explain the stakes, who won, and why it is important? guest: the stakes are always very high because taiwan is a hot issue, increasingly so between the united states and china. the fact that it is remarkable that taiwan and the taiwanese people have been choosing their leaders for decades now, more

than 20 years. that is a remarkable achievement on the side of the taiwanese people. and also that becomes problematic for beijing because being able to choose their leaders is not something that the chinese people have the rights to do. that is what creates a thorny issue between the two. host: who won the election and tell us about them. guest: the new president elect is from the same party as the current taiwanese president. and the party, the democratic progressive party is more pro-independence, but less inclined to build a closer relationship with the mainland. that is the of the dominant party who has been in power for decades after ee secos

of the island is tipped away from the mainland and closer to the western world. host: the pressure you are talking about, there is a lot of pressure from china -- from china and the taiwanese people to go in a different direction. and they rebuked that. guest: china has an incentive to move the island closer to the mainland for the reason that if beijing feels the need to really force reunification, it will be easier to do that. and people feel that about the mainland which is now why it is getting harder. what is most interesting is that even the fact of having an election in taiwan is not something eve covered in domestic media in china because of the fact that taiwan, the ccp always tries to motivate or rationalize its rule of the country by saying that democracy

does not work for the chinese people. it is working for the chinese -- for the taiwanese they are very similar. that makes this issue high-stakes and very interesting. host: what was the rited stateso the outcome of the election? guest: the reaction from beijing has been the baseline, they would say that taiwan belongs to china and the standard talking points. but more so to the outside world. the chinese authorities do not talk to the chinese people about elections in taiwan that much. that would that they have democracy in taiwan. the reaction is pretty much standard from the u.s.. we did not see the american president calling up the president-elect of taiwan like we had eight years ago. but president biden did come out to say that the united states does not support taiwan's

independence which drew criticism and comments from -- in many ways. but, i think it is also unusual for a u.s. president to deliberately have to say that we do n little weak in the interviews of many who support the taiwanese right to have an election and taiwan is pretty independent. host: it also might be confusing for americans who are not following the issue to hear that the united states is congratulating this pro-democracy president-elect the same time does not support taiwanese independence. can you explain in more detail what the u.s. policy is when it comes to taiwan? guest: that is a great question because the u.s. official policy china policy, which says that the united states recognizes

that there is only one china across the taiwan strait. but the united states also recognizes that the interpretation of one china is different between the two sides. and then our stances to out easg as the status quo is capped, we are fine and we are not explicitly it either way or supporting it either way. beijing has something similar but very different. it is the one chito china, mainland china. and i think when u.s. leaders say -- and use the word one china policy, oftentimes it is confusing to the public because it sounds very much like the one china principle that beijing wants to use. host: that is confusing. to your point about the united states wanting to maintain the status quo.

antony blinken was at the world economic forum and ridley -- and reacted to the taiwanese election and talks about what it meant for u.s.-china relations. here's a portion of the remarks. [end video clip] -- [video clip] >> i taiwan we see a powerful affirmation of democracy, something that we congratulated the people for. and something that has been consistent now over many years. and that is the most important thing. but our fundamental interest and the fundamental interests of countries around the world is to make sure that peace and stability is maintained in the taiwan straight. any differences between beijing and taiwan are resolved peacefully. and that one of the hallmarks of success of the relationship between united states and china since the establishment of the unitations has been the management of the taiwan issue. and the premium that we have had

-- and what we allowing people o know ever better lives and to be remarkable contributors to the global economy, which they are. but to maintain the status quo and to not take steps thatay di, especially when it comes to use of force. that is not only our position but the position of country after country around the world. there is money -- one very great reason for it. 50% of commerce goes through that strait every day. if that were disrupted it would affect the entire planet. that is the last thing we need, especially coming back from covid. second, semi conductors and manufacturing capacity that taiwan has, that affects every person in this room and almost every person around the world -- around the room from the

smartphone to the dishwasher to the automobile to everything else. so as small as it is, by its geography and extraordinary ingenuity, taiwan plays an outsized role in the world. that is why so many countries have a stake in preserving peace ends debility. it is not just saying that to beijing, it is comfort -- it is country after country. everyone has the same interest. [end video clip] host: secretary blinken laid out quite a few of ttaiwan contribul economy. can you talk a bit more about taiwan's role in the global economy and how that shapes the way that the u.s. participates in the debate? guest: taiwan has been much more important in the glover dutch global commerce in the last 20 years. for the reason that taiwan has been doing well but also in particularly the high-tech

sector. like the secretary mentioned taiwan is the center of the semi conductor industry because no matter what type of electronic devices we are thinking about, the semi conductor chip is the most important, it is like the brain of a computer. no matter what device it is, the design is by u.s. companies and then it will be sent to taiwan and then put together by the taiwanese companies. and that piece, that little and very delicate piece is sent back to the united states for assembly and it gets into our day-to-day lives in the use of electronic devices. and the problem with that is because taiwan is such a leader in manufacturing globally, it means that everything comes and taiwan, which makes commerce in the region so

important. and the problem with that is if china ever attempts to retake iwan, that would disrupt the semi conductor industry. and we can easily think back to the beginning of covid when we had the semi conductor shortage. and that was not becausof any war in the region. multiply that by 10 times or maybe 100 times, which is why sustaining peace in the region is very important. we can debate about how to sustain peace. the u.s. approach has been to say we are not supporting either side and you guys figure it out. so keep them guessing has been the u.s. strategy. it is called strategic ambiguity. the problem is that beijing is more and more ambitious i>j of taking -- retaking taiwan and that puts a lot of pressure on whether the ambiguity strategy still works and i think it does not. if you have christ -- if you have questions for weifeng

zhong, of us a call at for debit -- 202-748-8000 free democrats. republicans, 202-748-8001. independents, 202-748-8002. if you want to text us, that is 202-748-8003. speaking of the world economic forum, china's premier spoke at davo's for the global and economic and political leaders and did not address the taiwanese elections but complained about unfair trade practices. can you explain some of the tensions between the u.s., european union and china, particularly in those areas of high-tech and clean energy? guest: what the chinese premier refers to as unfair trade practices are the sanctions particularly in the high-tech sector on china putogether by the u.s. and its allies. but if you ask any trade

officials, anybody in the u.s. complain about unfair trade practices that china has because that has been the center of dispute ever since china joined the wto. the problem here is that a lot of the tech sectors that we are talking about includingare mores called dual use sectors meaning that the semi conductor chip produced can be used for innocent purposes like computers in cars, but they could also be used by the military sector in china. a lot of chinese companies are technically working for both. its own profit and then also the purpose of the state also in -- often includes military ambitions. that concerns western countries and that is why countries like the u.s. have taken actions on sanctions. that prompted china to say that is unfair for us.

of course that is because your military ambition is unfair to the rest of the world. host: speaking of that particular meeting, china had a very large delegation to davo's. what is to be made ofvious years? guest: it is actually quite typical when a chinese premier takes in the chinese economy has been having problems. i see this initiatives like this where the chinese premier is basically like the ceo of the country. so every time he goes out he is seeking business and this is one of these occasion. the business case has gotten weaker. they stopped even publishing the rating in china for a few months. they recently republished the data and it is just as bad as it used to be. the problem is, i think the

communist state has putn the prr in china. so the incarnate -- so the entire -- entire economy is losing itsa was relatively more free. host: ryan in orange, massachusetts. independent line. good morning. caller: hello. i was just wondering about the preparedness of taiwan with military capability or the united states forming a blockade and almost the style of president kennedy with the cuban missile crisis when it comes to protecting the interest of the area. also, having a policy in the u.s. that would basically restrict china from stealing intellectual property and protecting democracy in the asian regions. host: so preparedness for a military blockade and then

protections for intellectual property, what are your thoughts? guest: on the first one, trying to blockade taiwan has been the primary plan that beijing has when the problem there is that taiwan alone will never be able to defend againstand it has to rell including from the united states and other allies in the region, japan, sthwa korea and more. the problem is that helping taiwan defend itself is much harder than say ukraine defend itself againstussia because the island is hope -- is so hard to sustain supplies from outside the region. but it is so easy for china to cross the strait. so i think the military task is very hard to. which makes it evermore important to be able to deter

china from doing be happen thata bad case scenario for us. which is why secretary blinken referenced strategicmbbecause to deter china before. it was enough to keep beijing guessing. i think now it is not enough to keep beijing guessing. and i think because china has been more ambitious. the way to tip the balance is to signal more willingness on the u.s. part and western allies' parts to help taiwan more clearly to send the message out. i think it is not an act of provocation, it is an act of host: what about the question on intellectual property? guest: the way to grow f to stee top. i think china has done well catching up to number two in the

global economy and a lot of technology sectors. i think it is a very hard balance to strive because often times the intellectual property by beijing or through legal means like business collaborations with american companies and then they figure things out. host: so business practices. guest: that is part of the unfair trade practices. it is hard to do given how intertwined the u.s. and chinese economies have been. host: a question kevin, a republican from milton, delaware. "what historical claim does china have to taiwan? guest: the civil war of china ended after the second war war, around 1948 or when the incumbent party of the republic of china, which is■vow

taiwan. they just left and route -- retreated back to the island. and so in the sense of the civil war, it never really technically ended because the two regimes exist. what is the mainlines -- mainland regime and the other is the taiwanese regime. there was never closure. and there were always unilateral claims on the others and it is same for taiwanese platform because for a while they had the ambition to retake mainland china. beijing still claims taiwan. host: once again if you would like to ask a question with the u.s. relationship with taiwan or its role in the global economy. . republicans at 202-748-8001. independents, 202-748-8002. mike in philadelphia, pennsylvania. on the democratic line.

caller: yes. the previous caller -- host: we can hear you, go ahead. caller: the previous caller on military preparedness. i want to segue into regional alliances, especially south korea and japan. as u.s. power is extended around the world, what of relay stations -- relations does iwrong powers in stage -- in east a -- asia? and how would that change of they pursued that as a provocation. guest: i thinks deterrencet whes works with its allies. for example if we think about ukraine and russian invasion,

putin is the most

i do not know. i am worried about the united states. i served my country and who is sitton waiting by austin -- he was sitting and wasting my oxygen in the white house. host: let us go to frank, cincinnati, ohio. on the republican line. caller: thank you for taking my call. help me out here because i'm trying to understand. before taiwan it was called formosa. and that was an independent nation when the group came across and took over formosa. those people said what are you doing here, this is our island? that before world warr the -- ii, the nation of formosa, please? host: deeper into history.

go ahead. guest: before world war ii, the island was called formosa in english. that is correct. the chinese regime before world war ii was not called the people's china like today. it was called the republic of china, which in terms of territory included not only mainland but taiwan. they lost the civil war with the communist party, so then the entire old chinese regime retreated and concentrated only now to the main island of taiwan and a few of the smaller islands around it. but that did not end the regime of the republic of china. even today taiwan is technically called the republic of china. it is just at the map of the republic of china only has the island of taiwan.

the mainla jesse in florida on e republican line. in morning. caller: yes. i have a question as to the policy that we have, the one china policy and taiwan not being an independent country. it sounds to me that the policy says that taiwan is a part of china. and what that is is a civil war. i cannot understand how we have any business being on one side or the other for a civil war. i think the whole thing is about semi conductors. we need to build those in the united states. i do not understand what ocan ye china and what independent not ndence means? host: it is confusing. guest: let's look back in time wherein the 50's and 60's the hc

relation with the republic of taiwan. we even had a defense treaty with taiwan which said if the communist states try to retake taiwan, the united states had the obligation to defend taiwan. that is what led to the first crises because mao's a dog had some doubt about how serious the united states was. he tried to ■=bomb some of the small islands to just test how much stronger the u.s. commitment was. in the u.s. commitment at the time was very strong, so strong that unitedák states sent the us midway which is now permanently at san diego. at the time the aircraft carrier wasn't surfaced -- in-service and went to defend the island.

if we think strategic ambiguity and say that there is only one taiwan but we are not taking a side, that has been a remarkable change from having the treaty to defend taiwan in the first place in the 50's. i try to understand it ashe context of the change of u.s.-china relations. the united states for a long time had been wanting to do business with china. and the way to do that is to say let us move away from taiwan at least a little bit. that is the context for what eventually led to the growth and global commerce and the growth in taiwan and china being such a ■ big ayer in the global economy. host: where does that street -- does that treaty stand now? guest: it is gone. it recognizes the p.r.c., the mainland side. we are leaving the taiwanese issue not pressed upon to say we

business on -- in china. and taiwan figure it out but please keep the status quo which is not what beijing is willing to do. host: ted is in hawaii, democratic line. caller: good morning, i am glad that we areaking on this issue. i am out here in hawaii in the void between u.s. and taiwan. it has always been baffling. but we do need to support taiwan. they have been a longtime friend. and they fly in the same waters that they fly in in terms of politically. and i think it is important that we keep taiwan taiwan. and it is most important. host: thank you for your comments. i want to actually ask you about , so much of our attention is focused on the middle east. how do you think the two conflicts attention and national

security importance, and also ukraine. guest: so many different conflicts. we should keep our eyes straight on the biggest one which is china. i think china has become increasingly the most important threat in torrent -- in terms of national security to the united states because china has fundamentally deviated from the past t on what it joined the wto, which is to focus on the economy and on integrating itself into the western world. now it has fundamentally deviated. it has the ambition to dominate regi least and then potentially globally. that puts a lot of threats on the liberal international order. everything that we believe in in this world which is democracy and free speech and free commerce. china is trying to disrupt every

single aspect. that is very important for the united states. and what it implies is that we should not just on these issues that we mentioned. i know we have ukraine and israel in the middle east, but on a brighter note, one good thing that we get out of doing these types of crises is to remind ourselves what it takes to be ready to respond to potentially any disruptions. it has been hard to support ukraine. think about it if -- on a much larger scale. i mean ready in every sense, not only militarily but strategically. host: also in social support. henry in fort deposit, and -- alabama. e. that morning. caller: good morning. host: you can go ahead, just make sure you turn down the

volume on your tv. caller: sure. host: what is your question? caller: i would like to make a statement and ask if it is true, during the or -- early 40's, the japanese was overrunning china, china was rescued by the united states. and then the communists came in and 1948 and pushed the king off of the mainland into formosa, which is now known as taiwan? am i correct? host: yes. ok. thank you for that extra bit of history. let us go to phil. delmar, california.

on the independent line. caller: good morning and thank you for taking my call. it is a grim question but one that i think is important. especially for someone who is a scholar in the subject such as yourself. just, you believe at this pofpit in america's history that taiwan is the most vulnerable that it has ever been in recent memory? given the current former policy position and leadership that, unfortunately, taiwan is most e to an attack from the chinese government? guest: that is a great question. i know we hav cross strait relations, but let us think about the political side which very long time taiwan and to a lesser extent hong kong, have been a problem for the ccp

because narrative and legitimacy matters a lot even in language of how the communist party frames the rule in the country. because for a longkg time they have been telling the chinese people that the reason we have mmt rule is because democracy does not work for us. and the communist party can lead to higher growth. and that has been pretty convincing in the 80's and 90's because china was growing fast. kong started to become aand problem for beijing because if we look at taiwan today, it is not only a fully functional democracy where people have been choosing their leaders for years, but the taiwanese economy in many ways.f the world and that basically busted the chinese argument that says democracy does not work for us.

because everyone in mainland china can look to taiwan to see that it works. in terms of being able to justify the communist rule the ccp is in its most vulnerable time. and we need to also add that on top of the fact that president xi jinping has not had any big achievements domestically in terms of the economy. that increases a lot the chance of china attempting to take back taiwan. host: leo in, arkansas on the democratic line. caller: good morning. i was interested in n the war or political side. china gathers a lot of information from taiwan because of all the technical equipment that china is -- that taiwan is able to produce.

you know, electronic stuff and all of the stuff that is patented. i think that china is 70% more interested in gathering information from countries like -- and keeping their fingers sort of on the wire that goes under the oceans and learning about the million grains of gathered information. they do not seem to produce . taiwan seems to produce new ideas. thank you very much. i appreciate you. guest: thank y is right. a key part of china's foreign policy in many ways is intelligence. china has donecalled the open se intelligence which means that by even just collecting public information one can learn a lot about any other country. and that is what the chinese strategy has been on the united states. they have been using all of

these ways, particularly all of this information on the internet to learn about the regime. that has achieved a great deal without a little attempt of spying or espionage. host: i guess we give up our own information for free. i want to ask you about your work on the policy change index. what it is and what it tells us about the year ahead vis-a-vis china economically and geopolitically? gues the policy change index project is exactly along the lines of open source intelligence because it basically collects and analyzes data in the form of natural language in chinese propaganda. we have been harvesting what is in print for the people, which

is the main domestic facing newspaper and then try to analyze what beijing is thinking and what it plans to do. a little bit over a year ago our capabilities to -- detected a shift in terms of emphasizing its military power. d that turned out to be preceding these disruption such as sending planes t all of these aggressive actions that china takes towards the outside world, there are signs to them leading up to it, even from the domestic press. that is what we see and that is what we did see over the course of the last few years, china being more aggressive towards the outside world because they talk very little about the outside world. every time they talk about the western world, the language was very negative. host: folks who want to he looky

changeindex.org to look at his work on that. let us go to steve, columbus, ohio. democratic line. caller: yes. isn't it correct that taiwan called formosa was under the control of the japanese empire for 50 years prior to 1945, and what kinof economic relations does taiwan have with japan now? guest: it is true. japan invaded china including formosa during the second world war. which makes it very interesting now, seeing not only japan but also -- and taiwan coming closer t h korea coming closer. both south korea and china and taiwan were victims of japanese invasion during the war. now all of these countries are

coming together and recognizing that china is the bigger threat. and like-minded nations and democracies and allies need to work against the threat of communist china. host: next up is amended -- is our caller from illinois. caller: three quick questio fo notice china is buying up a lot of our national debt. what direction and have and whyy buying so much of our debt? secondly, what you feel about china only land in the united states and buying more land? and we hear that the chinese are coming across the border, is at a major threat to the united states. we have heard that china also has in several of our coastal states their own government. what are your feelings?

host: let us hit those one by one. first of all the national debt and what percentage of the national debt is being held by china and what does that mean for the u.s. economy? guest: i do not see china debt a problem because it represents really that there are a lot of investment opportunities in the u.s. economy and other countries including china wanted to be a part of it. the money wants to come in because in the united states economy investment yields high returns more than money being sent elsewhere. for chinese investors they will have more return in the u.s. economy than the chinese economy, which is not doing well at the moment. that is not a problem per se. what is more problematic is chinese only -- owning agricultural land, especially those places close to military

facilities. because very little is known about what was thinnt and what they were doing in those properties near critical facilities in the u.s.. host: that was one and two. number three was the news about chinese citizens crossing the southern border to the united states. guest:here a lot of the foreign citizens crossing the border into the united states illegally. i will have to look the proportion whether those from china really is a significant threat among those from other south american or central american countries. the border in general is an issueecure. i think one could advocate for a freer immigration system. t o come to the country illegally, they cannot just cross the border without any legal status. i think that has been a needs td in the u.s. and washington, not

just because of those from china, but those from everywhere else. host: would be michael in california. democratic line. caller: good morning. mr. zhong, do you think that when putin took crimea in 2014 that that jinping to say well i can take taiwan? and how close are jeezy paying, -- xi jinping, putin and the north korean leader. guest: when putin took crimea it was easier than ukraine. i do not know whetheback in 2014 it really emboldened xi jinping because at that time he was just coming into power in beijing.

it was before he was able to consolidate power and carry out his own plan. he is watching now, and i am sure he is, how the war between russia and ukraine is going. it's goto because putin is not doing well in his plan of invasion. we are nearly two years in and the war is in sort of an impasse where no side is really having the upper hand. think that puts a lot of pressure on how capable china really is in trying to retake taiwan because china really did not have any formal military conflicts since 1949, really. the chinese military is not really tested in that sense. host: thank you so much for your time. he has a senior research■