count. because there's really one question on the ballot and we know there are a lot of volunteers that will be showing up at the polls to help tabulate the results, we are expecting those results in a timely manner on election day. >> as of now there is speculation that belus -- delegates won't be awarded at the conventions why is it important for this campaign to be successful? >> for us in new hampshire, we know the president is head to head with donald trump the president is preferred by seven or eight points. that's really important that democrats and independents who support the president have an opportunity to weigh in and say this is the first nominating contest with or without

delegates. it's really important that there is a story coming out of new hampshire tuesday night. it should be more than just donald trump wins by x number of votes. >> what does success look like for this right in campaign? >> it's a unique effort. it's about getting a win. it's about getting more votes than the next democrat on the ballot. we are looking forward to declaring victory on tuesday night. "washington journal" continues. host: primary day in new hampshire and it's the day to talk with the political science professor and author of the book stormy weather, the new hampshire primary and presidential politics. good morning to you. guest: good morning, happy primary day. host: for new polls ahead of primary day, showing donald trump with a large lead in the granite state, historically, how

good have the polls been in predicting the results in new hampshire and how often do we get some sort of major upset in the state? guest: one thing to watch with polling in new hampshire is when the polls left the field so to speak, when they stop pulling voters, even 24, 36 hours ahead of time, a lot can change. back in the 2000 eight primary especially on the democratic side, barack obama started the weekend before the primary coming fresh off a win in iowa and had momentum and so forth. he was looking strong and then on primary day, everything changed and hillary clinton wound up with a victory. i think that's one thing to watch. the other thing to watch with polling is turnout. the question today is i think the biggest x factor is how high will the turnout be today, how

many independents, what we call undeclared voters will turn out? the bigger the turnout, the more volatility there could be. i suspect the bigger the turnout, the better the day nikki haley will have. host: there are big changes that can happen within 72 hours of the primary. what is it you look for and are you sensing that here in 2024? guest: last minute, sometimes a moment occurs that can capture the attention of new hampshire voters. usually come is not an advertisement necessarily, but it can be what we would call earned media or something that is captured on the news and spreads like wildfire. thinking back to 2008 when hillary clinton was doing an event and was talking to some voters and teared up and that

became, it was the equivalent of a viral moment now back in 2008. i remember running around and talking to the media i think the day before the primary and hearing about that but not realizing what the impact would be until the following day. this time around, what's striking to me is it's a tale of two electorates in new hampshire. on the conservative side, people whoi.d. as conservatives are likely mainstream republicans. i've been struck by the stability of those voters, a lot of them have made up their mind and with ron desantis leaving the race, the great majority of those voters will go toward donald trump. what's been variable has been on the moderate side. we've seens moderates and independent bouncing around for the last month or so, going between former new jersey

governor chris christie and nikki haley, then christie dropped out, nikki haley inherited some of those voters. that's where the volatility has been and that's what i'm wondering about today. how high that percentage of moderates will be for nikki haley and secondly, what would be the mix? the higher the turnout, the more moderates and independents are showing up, i believe. it's not only what percentage of the votes you get but how many of your voters turn out. i've been struck by the split in the electorate. host: there is a caller in our previous segment who was frustrated about the ability of voters were not registered with the party to participate in a party primary in his home state of pennsylvania. the rule is different there. why is that allowed in new hampshire? as we enter this primary, how often will we see that and how many states have that same rule? guest: yeah, we have a semi-open

primary in which there is this pool of what are called by the state undeclared voters. i am one of them. later on today, when i go to the polls, i can go into my polling place and they will ask me if i want a republican or democratic ballot. i can choose one and essentially become a member of the party for just five minutes, the time it takes me to vote. on my way out, hand in my ballot and sign a piece of paper and go back to my undeclared status. we are kind of the free agents and sometimes we can have the effect of crashing a party. you look back to gary hart 1984 or john mccain in 2000, it was those independents who provided a margin of victory for both of those insurgent candidates. that's in keeping with our idea

of participatory democracy in new hampshire. it's really the lack of strong political party machine. we kind of have this those that anybody can play in politics in new hampshire and that includes voters. going ahead to super tuesday, there are a number of states that provide this more open process as opposed to a closed process. i should stress that we've never seen a candidate who can win the nomination and it seems simple and logical but without that support of the party base. independents help to some extent but sooner or later, hopefully sooner, you've got to win over a good portion of your own parties voters. host: our guest is with us until 8:45 a.m. eastern. it's a good time to call if you have bastions about the first in

the nation primary, hout works and the history, questions about its future. these are subject we can talk about on the phone lines. it's split by political (202) 748-8000 for democrats, (202) 748-8001 republicans,s independent (202) 748-8002 and four new hampshire voters, (202) 748-8003. tell us how you watch the primary returns tonight, will restart to see the results first and how should we be reading these results as they come in? guest: we will start to see some scattered results in the 7:00 hour. some polls closed in and finally all polls close at 8:00. what i keep an eye on is looking at -- we will not see county results right away.

if you want to follow the results in real time, you have to drill down to the municipal level. its cities and towns in new hampshire. you can kind of see by looking at a scattering of towns, you get a sense -- i look at past voting patterns like i didn't article for the center for politics in the university of virginia for larry sabado. i look at two metrics -- back in the 2016 republican primary, how well did donald trump do of course in various places in new hampshire but also how well did former ohio politician john kasich do? kasich became this proxy back in 2016 for a more moderate type of voter going in his direction. i'm looking for kasich towns and trump towns, looking forward

into 2024. host: john kasich 116% in that primary back in 2016. eight years later, if nikki haley will pull off an upset, where do you expect we will see it first? guest: i think we will see it in the suburban communities between manchester and new hampshire's southern border with massachusetts. lots of suburban voters along the interstate 93 corridor in eastern hillsboro county and western rocking him county. -- rocking him county. -- rocking him - rockingham. nikki haley should be a good choice for those voters when she talks about a new generation of conservative leadership. one might think that would resonate among those sorts of voters. i keep a special eye on the town of bedford.

that for is just to the west of manchester. it will likely have the third most votes cast in hillsboro which is the largest county in new hampshire. when i moved to bedford 25 years ago, it was regarded as one of the most republican towns in the state area during the trump you're a, in a general election, joe biden carried that town in 2020 because of the polarization we are seeing in the electorate by how much education a voter has. tonight, i'm wondering how bedford and londonderry as well, surrounding the greater manchester area, how do they vote? if nikki haley can carry towns like bedford decisively, she may have them up better-than-expected night. if donald trump carries bedford then he's probably and route to a victory, a convincing victory

along the lines of the polling we've been seeing in the last couple of days. host: we are taking your phone calls and there's plenty for you. surely is a first out of new castle pennsylvania, republican. caller: good morning. thank you for taking my call. i just had fox news on and nikki was on there. they were interviewing her. that woman is so full of vengeance and meanness. she called them liars and went on to tell them how they do badly by her. i couldn't believe -- i'm watching her and she is so full of venom -- host: who are they? are you talking about the journalist at fox news? caller: yes, the three of them. they just repeat what they are told area to call them liars to

their face -- i thought that was terrible. i'm thinking to myself that if biden doesn't have us in a war before he leaves office, she certainly would if she went in. we better start praying. we better start praying that she doesn't make it. host: we got your point. it brings up the question of the role of the media with attention by national media in new hampshire. has it been different this time around in terms of how the media has tried to cover this primary? what have you seen in the weeks and months leading up to today? guest:, this last week or two is had to be a frustrating experience for nikki haley and her campaign. i think the io results tended to solidify the conventional wisdom that donald trump was all

but inevitable. i think the national political media was reading the polls prior to iowa. i think they were hoping for a more competitive race in a more interesting story to tell. instead, nikki haley finished a disappointing third place. i think the story between iowa and new hampshire it had a lack of excitement this past week which is unusual for a new hampshire primary in the run up. it reminded me a bit of the 2012 republican primary when mitt romney coasted to a fairly easy victory. weer wondering who would finish second and third? this past week has felt similar to me in the sense that we are asking questions about the margin beingx or y rather than who will win.

imagine a certain frustration for a candidate who's trying to challenge because when you are faced with that sort conservative or mainstream, you're bound to be a bit frustrated. host: mike in manhattan, kansas, independent, you are on. caller: good morning. my question to the democrats out there -- they claim to be the champion of demcy yet they are canceling primaries and declaring biden the winter in florida, one of our largest populist states. they canceled the new hampshire primary and wouldn't let biden on the ballot and are suing in court to keep trump off the ballot. orld can you claim to be a champion of democracy --

and not calli it rigging an you are certainly narrowing the focus to nothing. biden doesn't debate anybody just like trump. host: on what's happening on the democratic side of the new hampshire primary? guest: one brief correction, joe biden could have put his name on the new hampshire democratic primary ballot if he chose to. he ultimately chose not to do so. that is in large part because of the controversy when the new hampshire democratic primary should be. on the one side, the democratic national committee and president biden himself said south carolina should go first, new hampshire should go after and on the others, we have the state of new hampshire which runs the primary today. they operate them and they say

we have a state law and new hampshire goes before any other primary. joe biden had ahoice when confronted with this. should he put his name on the ballot? he decided not to. i understand why he decided not to. it was consistent with his position that new hampshire should not go first. it would have seemed hypocritical if he decided then to put his name on the ballot. new hampshire democratic leaders find themselves, they are stuck. on the one■ hand, they are confronting joe biden about changing the first in the nation primary. on the other hand, they want to show they are loyal democrats. they've been behind this write- in effort. that's one of the things i'm most all that goes. we are expecting a low turnout on the democratic side, fewer than 100 thousand people and

hasn't been any attempt to have a right in for a sitting president in new hampshire since 1968 when there was a similar effort for lyndon johnson against minnesota senator jean mccarthy whose name was on the ballot. that year, mccarthy became the messenger for the anti-vietnam war faction of the democratic party. that didn't turn out so well for lyndon johnson. he wound up winning the primary but it was by such a small margin that the national political media said this shows how the democratic party is tearing itself apart over the vietnam war. lbj leaves the race and says he's not going to run for reelection. i think today, especially if there is not much of a story on the republican side, the national political media will take a long, hard look at how

well joeen does, what percentage of the vote does he get on the democratic side, how many people will take the effort to write in joe biden's name. the standard for write-in write-in a for new hampshire is pret■rty forgiving. if they happen to spell his last name with two i's the official will look at the intent of the voter as best they can. something unusual that voters don't usually have to do and they write-in the name of the bottom of the ballot. i'm curious how that plays out. host: was it lyndon johnson that set the bar the joe biden has to be today? guest:■g i would put the bar somewhere around 60% for joe biden. in other words, my rule of thumb -- it's rough -- if joe biden does 70% or better tonight, that's a very good evening. 60-70% of the vote, not terrific

but not terrible. i think the closer biden getsd p with, the closer he gets to 50%, if he gets a fair majority or 'e gets 48%, i think that will set off an alarm bell in the nationalol media. they have been looking carefully at polling of democrats about joe biden, looking at democratic doubts about joe biden and whether he's ready for another campaign or that he's ready for another four years. what if donald trump gets a higher percentage of republican primary votes tonight that -- then joe biden gets of the democratic primary vote. you can bet the republican starting with trump himself will be crowing about that. host: florida, bill

on the line for democrats. caller: good morning. host: go ahead. caller: good morning, professor. guest: good morning. host: what's your question or comment? caller: i was just curiousthe ws reports someone who doesn't win as the winner such as clinton in 1992 as the comeback kid and mcgovern in 1972, one less than a majority. he didn't get 50% so he got deemphasized. guest: that's a good question. primaries were designed to take power out of the hands of political party bosses who

decided who were good and bad candidates and put it in the hands of the voters. perhaps one of the unintended consequences of all that was that national political media in some ways took over the role of the party bosses. they became the ones who would assess candidates and how good they would be running for president. if you think back to john if kennedy in 1960 who ran in some primaries, the party bosses said let's see how kennedy does in primaries and nowadays, the national political media -- and as you say, it goes back a long way, muskie versus mcgovern were clinton versus paul tsongas. someecond-place can be assessed as a first place win if you do better than expectations. for instance -- that's all the

national media and observers like me to some extent. what is the margin here? we are all handicapping the contest. today, the polling for donald trump versus nikki haley in new hampshire has been so strong over the past week that if nikki haley finished within single digits, say five or 6%, if at 80 1 p.m. tonight when the polls close, if the cable news anchors go on and say hold everything, new hampshire is too close to call according to our exit polls, i think regardless of whether nikki haley ultimately won or lost new hampshire, i think that would be nikki haley's bill clinton circa 1992 comeback kid moment. i bet she would be out in front

of the media very quickly, claiming victory even if ultimately she did not win the primary. again, playing the expectation game went just like bill clinton in 1992, when you face utter disaster as clinton did in hampt second-place looks good. host: speaking of itou can watch the results and candidate speeches here on c-span. it's a program we been airing throughout this early primary season in iowa and new hampshire as well, 8:00 p.m. eastern tonight here on c-span, c-span.org and the free c-span now video app. ames iowa is next, line for democrats. caller: good morning. i just wanted to point out, speaking about the write-in candidacy for joe biden, let's

look at it like this -- it's not a dnc sponsored situation there. it's a grassroots efforth" from democrats who say let's put joe's name on here. if we understand that if it's not a politically fact committee or organized happening, we really should look at it as something to consider is up or down. speaking on ms. haley in mr.l s- we looked at iowa and said mr. trump got 98%. we only had 100,000 people out there in from all 99 counties. i understand it was cold but look at the facts, the states are exactly how they are. it's a very volatile situation right now with the selection.

if everything reported -- was reported with fairness and clarity, we might have a chance to get to those who don't really understand what's going on. host: that's marvin in iowa. on the iowa results in the all-important eight days between hyo and new hampshire, every four years --guest:t's a fair point the caller makes in terms of how representative are party caucuses? certain people are not able to get out in the evenings, certain people work in the evening. they can't vote during the rest of the day if they choose to. new hampshire is much different than that. the polls are open now and they are open until seven or 8:00 p.m. at night so there is plenty of opportunity for voters to take the chance to participate. i do think we will get a more

representative sense of the electorate from new hampshire than we got from iowa. it will be interesting to see if new hampshire confirms what iowa caucus-goers said in terms of the split between moderate republicans and conservative republicans. in terms of the democrats, it's a fair point -- there is so many strange factors on the new hampshire democratic primary this time as the caller mentioned. it'ssanctioned democratic event. there's been a lot of controversy in new hampshire about joe biden's motion in the new hampshire primary. how all of this impacts your ordinary democrat was turning out to■ vote because she is a loyal democrat and that's what loyal democrats do, they participate in party events. this kd of sort it is a party event but in other ways not.

i'm really curious how this impacts the ordinary voter in urnout levels, in terms of her support for the incumbent president, all very interesting. host: two southeast new hampshire, exeter, new hampshire, the line for democrats, good morning. caller: how is it going? host: doing well. what your question or comment? caller: the way i've looked at it and i haven't heard anyone talk about it but the major reason for it being taken away from new hampshire is just campaign-finance. i feel like they think they will make more money off another state that new hampshire. i was just wondering if you had any insight on that, thanks. guest: i don't know that it's so much a campaign-finance thing as

it is -- this has been brewing on the democratic side in terms of t national party elites for some time. the question has been -- is new hampshire a representative electorate of the democratic party? by certain criteria in terms of racial diversity and so forth, the answer is no, new hampshire is not representative in that fashion. the question has always been -- what are their political traditions and other factors regarding new hampshire and the fact that it's a small state and the fact that it's basically an open playing field to these other criteria. doesn't make up for the lack of diversity? clearly this time around with biden in an unprecedented way putting his thumb on the scale when it came to who should vote first, that was the chief criteria and he mentioned in terms of the

democratic party is the party of racial diversity and therefore, we should put voters of color in a more prominent position on the calendar. what's interesting to me is south carolina in particular, one can make the argument that south carolina democrats have been the kingms the case might r some time. joe biden is a great example of that. joe biden finished in 2020 out of the money in new hampshire. he did poorly in iowa and new hampshire. yet south carolina democrats, when it stick. they rejected the verdict of new hampshire, chose biden over sanders and it was their verdict, not the first in the nation verdict of the south carolina verdict that really set the tone for the rest of t■i primaries. in terms of campaign-finance,

that is something i think has affected the new hampshire primary and the whole primary process. regardless of who goes first, the whole process has become much more nationalized. candidates feel compelled to become national names with the national i.d. so much earlier than the use tonight think that's about raising money. if you want to build a small donor base that stretches from california to new york, you've got to build name id. back in the day, jimmy carter for example could compete in new hampshire for months under the radar and let new hampshire introduce him to the country. nowadays, candidates think we've got to start much earlier. we cannot wait for new hampshire to introduces us to the country. we had to do it ourselves. host: four our visual learners

out there these are the results of the new hampshire primary was bernie sanders at 25.6% and pete to judge at 24.3% and andy klobuchar at 19.7% and elizabeth warren at 9.2% and then joe biden at 8.4% back just four years ago. this is debbie in lehigh acres, florida, independent. caller: hi, this is debbie. i'm 65 years old. i have never voted in my whole life. i am shocked by the united states democrats, republicans and independents. you guys made a mess of it for us who don't want to get into your thing. we don't want to join your

church or your cult or whatever. we want to live. we want civil rights. please, do the right thing for us. host: what is the right thing for you in florida when it comes to the general election, if it is joe biden and donald trump again? caller: i am a woman. i'm 65. i lived in this era of abortion. yes, i had to get an abortion, but that -- but i was raped. i never had another one. i have a lovely daughter, i have a lovely granddaughter and grandchildren. i think abortion should be a civil right. this is a civil right fight here. it's nothing else but civil rights.

i don't know why you guys don't get it. we deserve, people of color who have made this country, we made this country. host: that's debbie in florida. on the role of the abortion issue this time around? guest: we saw in 2022, i saw firsthand how important the overturn of roe v. wade was to voters in new hampshire. especially democratic voters. on the republican side, issues like abortion, republicans would rather not talk about those issues up here. they find themselves, unlike iowa republicans, new hampshire republicans find themselves rather ambivalent about abortion. they find themselves in that middle with many other americans. maybe there should be some restrictions but it shouldn't be nn a federal law, we don't think government should be in our

business but on the democratic side, there is no ambivalence. unanimity about the importance of abortion rights and we saw that play out in the 2022 midterms when republicans were on the defensive about the overturn of roe while democrats were definitely on the offense in terms of protecting abortion rights. looking forward to 2024, i fully expect that once again come in the general election, it will be a very prominent issue, galvanizing a lot of voters including young voters like the ones i teach at the university of new hampshire. that will be very prominent. regarding democrats looking ahead to the south carolina primary, one of the most important relationships in the democratic party is between presidt biden and african-american voters. i'm very curious to see looking

down the road what will -- what will be the enthusiasm for black voters for the president. they saved his presidential campaign four years ago. i'm curious to see how it will play out this time. host: less than 10 minutes left with dante scala. we promised at the top of the segment to talk about the past and present primaries in new hampshire but the future as well. what does the future look like for the first in the nation primary in new hampshire in the wake of what uld be a runaway republican primary and a write-in campaign for a sitting president? guest: looking to the future, it's a it of a split decision. the national republican party seems perfectly fine with new hampshire playing its traditional role in having the

first in the nation primary right after i was first in the nation caucus. on the republican side, i don't anticipate any big changes. it looks like business as usual going forward to 2028. it's on the democratic side that things are rather complicated. i think that new hampshire democrats, democratic leadership here were blindsided by president biden's decision to put south carolina first. now the question going forward is, once president biden passes from the scene one way or another from 2028, can new hampshire democrats persuade fellow elites from around the country to reverse that decision to put new hampshire back in its place at the top of the calendar? it seems to me like a bit of an uphill battle.

what new hampshire democratic leaders learned in the run-up to 2024 is that they don't seem to have a lot of allies among democrats elsewhere in the first. the question is, can they find some new allies? iowa is by the■ boards at this point. can they find new allies to restore new hampshire to its place? the other thing to keep in mind is if it remains status quo in new hampshire is holding an outlaw primary in 2028, what will presidential candidates do? what will cavil -- what will california governor gavin newsom do? will he participate in the new hampshire primary even though it's not a democratic sanctioned event or would he ignore it? host: to north carolina, this arnold, and independent. caller: good morning.

it's my understanding that if use j alive during his primary ini heard sh. host: i apologize for that. we will move onto the line for democrats, good morning. caller: good morning. i am 67 right now. i'm seeing what's going on everywhere likin namrepublicans. democrats are doing the job in fighting for everything. the only problem over there is trump. he doesn't do anything for nobody. he does things for himself area people don't understand. joe biden will always be the number one to help people. trump kills people.

that's not right for america. i hope everybody wakes up and sees that. they need to decide which one is better for everyone. host: trying to get a couple of more calls in here before the end of our segment. less than five minutes, this is george in st. louis, independent caller: caller:, good morning. thanks, this is a great platform, you write run a great show and thank you, c-span. a few quick observations. i was so encouraged to see nator betterment talking about his past problems that he's overcome and he is articulate and he's got some really good ideas.i give kudos the second ts dean phillips. i think he is one of the most refreshing people we've seen come on the scene.

i think he is a guy that gives his opinion and is not worried whether it's democratic or republican. i wish there was a way that man had a legitima run for the presidency. number three, the republicans, they don't have a clue of what they are doing. anything.t they want to put their head in the sand and the biggest issue, you can say it will be the energy or it will be finances or the border. it comes down to one thing -- the democrats are pushing it -- it's abortion. the republicans don't -- they can't win. they've lost three elections, two elections in a row, three elections in a row and they don't want to address that issue. until they address that issue, they have no shot of doing anything. why they are trying to impeach biden when he is the only person

they can be. governor newsom comes in and that guy■g is out of hollywood. they got no shot against him in they've got no shot against michelle or whoever they put up. that's all i had to say, thank you so much. host: a lot there, what do you want to pick up on? guest: new hampshire republicans it had a difficult time during the trump bureau. at the state level, governor chris sununu, son of the former governor johnson new, has been successful and they've had success in the state legislature running for congress as a republican has been really difficult in new hampshire during the trump your. we sought in 2022 and joe biden carried the state in 2020. we definitely -- we are a purple state but during the trump era, that purple takes on a bluish tinge to it.

ig suspect if it is biden versus trump, going forward that new hampshire will once again be that democratic leaning swing state. we will make the first kind of swing states but during the trump era, we are not really a bellwether anymore. we are definitely a state with a bit of a democratic lean to it. host: this is david, republican, good morning, you are next. are you with us? caller: yeah, i'mople are confri haley about being backed by democrats and she gets this look on her face and she does not deny it and she's been asked several times about it what's to stop the democrats from voting for nikki haley? it would be lopsided, then. what's to stop the democrats for

voting for nikki haley? that's my question, thank you very much. guest: yeah, it all depends -- in new hampshire, it depends on how that democrat's register. they democrat in new hampshire is indeed registered as a partisan democrat on the voter rolls, she cannot cross over and take a republican ballot. however, if she is registered as a " undeclaredu] voter", she has free agency to choose either party's primary that might be the way that a democrat today, someone who personally identifies as a democrat can participate in the republican primary perhaps thinking i want to cast a vote against donald trump and i will even vote for a republican like nikki haley. it depends todayn dante scala r at the university of new

hampshire, a great twitter handle at graniteprof if you can find him there and thatunh .edfu. always appreciate your time on the "washington journal." guest: you're very welcome. host: coming up next this morning, we will talk with brad cook, co-chair of the new hampshire special committee on voter confidence about the group's recommendations on improving the electoral process. later, a viewers guide how to watch the returns tonight. we will be joined by the boston globe political reporter. we will be right back. ♪ >> discover the heartbeat of democracy with c-span's voices

2024 as we engage voters nationwide asking, what issue is most important to you in this election and why? i'm congressman dean phillips and i'm a candidate for president of the united states, running in the democratic primary. the most important issue on my plate now is winning the november election and defeating donald trump. the most important policy every democrat, republican or independent should be voting on. other than that, go around the country consistently addressing cost and chaos in his time for a new generation to take the torch and brings to a bright future. >> i'm running for president because our nation is bankrupt. we are bankrupt financially and spiritually. i am a ceo of an investment bank and i am a pastor. it's time for us to see each other again. i've got real solutions that are different. congress needs to balance the budget again but going after health care, not welfare and i have solution for the border.

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